Bills doing homework on 2017 QBs

[jeffismagic]

Well that may be what he would (or would not) do, but I would not be surprised if three QBs come off the board in the first round and maybe 4 by the high second. If I'm right about the interest its not unlikely that one goes top 10 either.

 

Jaworski seems to see things like a Greg Cossell. He is still looking at QB's through a prism from 15-20 years ago.

[blacklabel]

Lot of good stuff here.

 

On the Jaworski quote... he's the same dude that in 2013 said he believed Kaepernick could be one of the greatest QBs of all-time. He had him very highly rated on his list of best NFL QBs at that time. So... ya know, Jaworski may not be the first guy I listen to in regards to prospects.

 

And the Prescott thing was said all during draft weekend last year. I don't remember exactly who said it but it was stated more than a few times that Buffalo had targeted Prescott with their fourth-round pick. Out of all the QBs that came out last year, aside from Wentz, Prescott was a guy the Bills put a lot of work into.

 

Someone mentioned Russell Wilson... yeah, the Bills had him ranked as a 4th round player as did just about every single other team out there. His height is really the only thing that dropped him. Teams felt he would never be able to overcome that. Seattle had 10 picks in 2012 plus they had signed Flynn to presumably be the starter. They probably figured if they grabbed Wilson in the third and he didn't pan out then oh well, they had Flynn. Luckily for them Wilson has turned out to be a top ten QB. Seattle also got trashed in reviews that year for picking Bruce Irvin in the first and Bobby Wagner in the second. In retrospect, given how the careers for each of those guys has worked out their pick position should've been flipped.

 

Back to the Bills though... it was also just reported that they (Bills) were trying to keep these QB visits under wraps but a coach at UNC tweeted that picture of McD and TPegs so the cats outta the bag now. I do believe they'll add a QB somewhere and I wouldn't be surprised if it's in the first... however, I just would like to see it happen after they trade back and gain a few extra picks. There's also a real chance one of these guys could be available to them when their turn is up in round two. We'll see.

Edited April 11, 2017 by blacklabel

[The Jokeman]

 

Except that the risk-reward is astronomically high if you get it right.

 

If a guy proves himself a franchise QB, even by year 3, then you have him on a ridiculously cheap deal in years 3 and 4, and on a market-level deal in year 5.

Valid but I think when we traded down from 8 to 16 to get EJ this was part of our rationale.

[YoloinOhio]

Valid but I think when we traded down from 8 to 16 to get EJ this was part of our rationale.

i think they were confident they could get him at 16 but didn't want to wait until the 2nd.

[Manther]

I think it will be a late round QB. We just signed Yates as the #2 and Cardale needs another redshirt year to develop.

Yates COULD be a camp arm with potential to be the #2. If he is not the clear #2 I would guess he will be cut. It seems like a leverage your bet type situation.

 

With that said, if we draft a QB, one will need to be cut.

 

My quick thoughts.....

 

1. If you love a QB in this draft you don't let Cardale discourage you from taking him

 

2. If you aren't sure on Cardale, you don't cut him and you can't hide him on the practice squard

 

3. Yates is not any reason to not take a QB or to cut a QB unless you absolutely don't believe in the QB

 

4. TT is not a reason at all not to take a QB

 

5. The Bills need to trust their draft board and that is not vs other players in the draft. It is their grade on the QBs vs QBs over the last 10-15 years grades

 

 

Just a couple thoughts on QB drafting.

[CardinalScotts]

not one of these qb's is worth taking above a late 2

[YoloinOhio]

Yates COULD be a camp arm with potential to be the #2. If he is not the clear #2 I would guess he will be cut. It seems like a leverage your bet type situation.

 

With that said, if we draft a QB, one will need to be cut.

 

My quick thoughts.....

 

1. If you love a QB in this draft you don't let Cardale discourage you from taking him

 

2. If you aren't sure on Cardale, you don't cut him and you can't hide him on the practice squard

 

3. Yates is not any reason to not take a QB or to cut a QB unless you absolutely don't believe in the QB

 

4. TT is not a reason at all not to take a QB

 

5. The Bills need to trust their draft board and that is not vs other players in the draft. It is their grade on the QBs vs QBs over the last 10-15 years grades

 

 

Just a couple thoughts on QB drafting.

yes, and we all remember they had no problem cutting, re-signing and then trading Matt Cassel two years ago. Yates will need to earn his roster spot.

[Fadingpain]

Whoever it is, they're getting a project. Why would they pick a project at 10? That's not been their m.o.

 

I think it's safe to assume that they kept Tyrod and got Yates in order to afford themselves time for developing Cardale and a draft pick.

 

With that said, I think they're doing their due diligence, so that they're adequately familiar with and confident on the analysis of whoever falls to the 2nd or 3rd.

Did you miss the part where we took EJ Manuel with the 16th overall pick?

[billsredneck1]

The only thing about assigning proper draft value to players is that teams often seem to do so incorrectly.

 

Case in point: The Bills are said to have had a 4th round grade on Russell Wilson. They stood pat and what happened? Seattle placed a higher value on him and took him before the Bills could. Likewise, how are all 32 teams' valuing of Dak Prescott as a 4th rounder looking right about now?

 

To be clear, I'm not saying you should overdraft a guy or place a 1st round grade on a guy that you think doesn't deserve it. What I AM saying, though, is that the whole IDEA of deciding "what round player X 'should' be drafted in" is an objective and imperfect exercise. I am also saying that with the quarterback position, if you have a strong conviction that a guy can be a Franchise Quarterback and can lead you to a championship, how early is too early? If the goal is "let's just take a QB in the middle rounds and see how he turns out in a couple years", then fine. That's what you're doing. But if the goal is "let's identify and draft a guy that we think can lead us to a Super Bowl victory", then how early is "too early"?

 

People often talk about draft value as if it's an absolute. In reality, draft value -- as determined by the 32 teams in the NFL -- is proven to be incorrect CONSTANTLY. Late round guys wind up being "first round caliber", and guys taken in the first round wind up busting. You still do your best to assign value, of course, but when it comes to the QB position in particular, I'm okay with "overdrafting" a guy if you think he can make you a perennial contender...bearing in mind that draft valuation is an objective and flawed process anyway.

 

i couldn't agree more. well put together.

[YoloinOhio]

Did you miss the part where we took EJ Manuel with the 16th overall pick?

your "we" refers to a different owner, GM, and coaching staff Edited April 11, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Lot of good stuff here.

 

On the Jaworski quote... he's the same dude that in 2013 said he believed Kaepernick could be one of the greatest QBs of all-time. He had him very highly rated on his list of best NFL QBs at that time. So... ya know, Jaworski may not be the first guy I listen to in regards to prospects.

 

....better yet and closer to home.....go back and re-read the 2004 draft experts' comments about JP Losman as "the heir apparent gunslinger to Favre going to the Packers at #25.....Jawaorski chimed in with his supportive, "real deal" drool, highlighting "Losman's intelligence with the football"...fast forward to the 2007 draft and once again, Jaws told us how good Spent Trent was going to be, yada yada.......1.000% BA I guess....the Polish Rifle and the Amish Rifle use the same ammo....BLANKS.........

Edited April 11, 2017 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Bill from NYC]

The only thing about assigning proper draft value to players is that teams often seem to do so incorrectly.

 

Case in point: The Bills are said to have had a 4th round grade on Russell Wilson. They stood pat and what happened? Seattle placed a higher value on him and took him before the Bills could. Likewise, how are all 32 teams' valuing of Dak Prescott as a 4th rounder looking right about now?

 

To be clear, I'm not saying you should overdraft a guy or place a 1st round grade on a guy that you think doesn't deserve it. What I AM saying, though, is that the whole IDEA of deciding "what round player X 'should' be drafted in" is an objective and imperfect exercise. I am also saying that with the quarterback position, if you have a strong conviction that a guy can be a Franchise Quarterback and can lead you to a championship, how early is too early? If the goal is "let's just take a QB in the middle rounds and see how he turns out in a couple years", then fine. That's what you're doing. But if the goal is "let's identify and draft a guy that we think can lead us to a Super Bowl victory", then how early is "too early"?

 

You are making sense.

 

What I have said over and over is that if the Bills really thought EJ was a very good quarterback or even a great prospect, they would NOT have traded down and taken him. It would have made no sense to do so.

 

Imo, if a team thinks a qb is really all that they should snatch him up, even if they already have a franchise quarterback. These guys get hurt all the time and if a backup steps in and has a few good games, he is worth a fortune in trade value, let alone depth.

 

I would love to see the Bills grab Watson in round 1 but I don't see it happening. I need to see it to believe it.

[billsredneck1]

You are making sense.

 

What I have said over and over is that if the Bills really thought EJ was a very good quarterback or even a great prospect, they would NOT have traded down and taken him. It would have made no sense to do so.

 

Imo, if a team thinks a qb is really all that they should snatch him up, even if they already have a franchise quarterback. These guys get hurt all the time and if a backup steps in and has a few good games, he is worth a fortune in trade value, let alone depth.

 

I would love to see the Bills grab Watson in round 1 but I don't see it happening. I need to see it to believe it.

 

Whaley trades up to the Jets no. 6 pick! Gives the Jets next year's 1st and this year's 3rd to pick Watson! Russ Brandon is in war room fist pumping with Doug! Then the Jets pick OJ Howard and let it be known he was their target all along! Noooooooooooooo!

[BillsFan17]

I can't think of any real developmental types that went through a legit development process and are high end starters.

 

Aaron Rodgers sat behind Favre, but that was a hall of Famer who Noone knew when he would retire.

 

Late round picks as well. Cousins is the only recent on I can think of. Sitting behind RGBust. However, guys like Wilson and Dak started early in their careers. They went brought along slowly and "developed."

 

Fact is, the nfl is was to instant gratification based at its core now. Heck, the new CBA almost is designed to allow picking a bust of a QB to NOT totally set you back. You can transition from one bust to the next like the Jags.

 

I mean you look at the Panthers for instance with Clausen. Second rounder, had to play way to early... stunk it up and they moved on the very quick with taking Cam the next year first overall.

[LeGOATski]

Did you miss the part where we took EJ Manuel with the 16th overall pick?

No, I just disregarded it because that was Buddy Nix's last draft.

 

In any case, trading back to 16 is not the same as staying put in the top 10.

[8-8 Forever?]

poor bills fans, still hoping for the QB "savior".. sad. TT is your guy.. they ain't goin' QB in the early rounds. too much talent drain at WR and DB.

[thebandit27]

poor bills fans, still hoping for the QB "savior".. sad. TT is your guy.. they ain't goin' QB in the early rounds. too much talent drain at WR and DB.

Drafting for need is a fool's errand

 

Hopefully the front office is smart enough to avoid it

Edited April 12, 2017 by thebandit27

[26CornerBlitz]

@ESPN_NFLNation

Sean McDermott: Bills' meetings with QBs could be 'smokescreen'

https://t.co/sGXNotjdRQ

[Riverboat Richie]

Some how I get the strange feeling this will be the 2011 QB draft, with the same results, when it's all said and done.

[YoloinOhio]

Some how I get the strange feeling this will be the 2011 QB draft, with the same results, when it's all said and done.

interesting ... which one is Cam? Edited April 12, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Riverboat Richie]

interesting ... which one is Cam?

 

Yet to be decided, His stock rose late and was not expect to be picked that high for a while prior to the draft.

[YoloinOhio]

 

Yet to be decided, His stock rose late and was not expect to be picked that high for a while prior to the draft.

i was thinking (if your theory is correct) it would be Trubisky because he's the only one rumored to go #1 and he only started for one year.

[starrymessenger]

Drafting for need is a fool's errand

Hopefully the front office is smart enough to avoid it

Except more often than not when you pick a QB early you are drafting for need, and it happens every year and will happen again this year. How often is that QB really the BPA? Or are QBs really entirely in a class by themselves when it comes to drafting. In general terms of course drafting an inferior talent because of need is almost always a losing strategy.

[jeffismagic]

Except more often than not when you pick a QB early you are drafting for need, and it happens every year and will happen again this year. How often is that QB really the BPA? Or are QBs really entirely in a class by themselves when it comes to drafting. In general terms of course drafting an inferior talent because of need is almost always a losing strategy.

 

If you think a running back will be a top 3 player in the league and the QB top ten you take the QB every time.

 

NFL teams adjust for positional value.

[starrymessenger]

If you think a running back will be a top 3 player in the league and the QB top ten you take the QB every time.

 

NFL teams adjust for positional value.

Of course.

[BillsFan4]

@ESPN_NFLNation

 

 

 

 

 

Sean McDermott: Bills' meetings with QBs could be 'smokescreen'

https://t.co/sGXNotjdRQ

 

It's funny. Until McDermott said this, I was leaning toward it being more of a smoke screen. But now that he said "it could just be a smoke screen", it makes me think that maybe they are more interested in taking a QB at 10 then I thought they were... lol.

 

But I also didn't hear McDermott's radio interview in full context either. I am just reading a single quote that that ESPN article chose to focus on.

 

Edit, maybe he's also just trying to get people to think its not a smoke screen, so they're more willing to trade up with the Bills, or ahead of the Bills so a good player maybe falls into Buffalo's lap at #10.

 

Ah, draft season... lol

Edited April 12, 2017 by BillsFan4

[Riverboat Richie]

i was thinking (if your theory is correct) it would be Trubisky because he's the only one rumored to go #1 and he only started for one year.

 

I was really thinking more of Mahomes. Not really thought of as the #1 pick. We'll see if his stock rises in the next two weeks.

[starrymessenger]

Do teams really put in a lot of work just to set up smoke screens? Maybe they do. In a class like this year's maybe the smokescreen is to create confusion concerning which QB the Bills are really interested in so teams wont trade up ahead of them. Still I can't get rid of this feeling that if MT is there at 10 he is on his way to Buffalo. The team can now cut bait with Tyrod next year.

[jeffismagic]

Do teams really put in a lot of work just to set up smoke screens? Maybe they do. In a class like this year's maybe the smokescreen is to create confusion concerning which QB the Bills are really interested in so teams wont trade up ahead of them. Still I can't get rid of this feeling that if MT is there at 10 he is on his way to Buffalo. The team can now cut bait with Tyrod next year.

 

The Bills are the least tricky team in the league. For better or worse.

[rayray808]

my 2 cents...

 

we have "our guy" in mind, but want the Browns, Cardinals, Texans to think that "our guy" is "their guy". in a perfect situation those teams trade up to 10 and grab "their guy" so that we can grab "our guy" later along with an extra pick.

 

my guess...

 

"their guy" = Trubisky

"our guy" = Mahomes

extra pick = WR

[YoloinOhio]

Do teams really put in a lot of work just to set up smoke screens? Maybe they do. In a class like this year's maybe the smokescreen is to create confusion concerning which QB the Bills are really interested in so teams wont trade up ahead of them. Still I can't get rid of this feeling that if MT is there at 10 he is on his way to Buffalo. The team can now cut bait with Tyrod next year.

i think they do intentionally put smokescreens out there via the media but they don't fly the owner and FO around to meet with and work out QBs for that purpose. There is no doubt in my mind the Bills are interested in drafting one of the QBs at the right value spot.

[starrymessenger]

i think they do intentionally put smokescreens out there via the media but they don't fly the owner and FO around to meet with and work out QBs for that purpose. There is no doubt in my mind the Bills are interested in drafting one of the QBs at the right value spot.

I agree. The fact that Pegs was on his horse checking out these prospects spoke volumes to me. So who do you think it is and what is the value spot? My gut tells me its MT or maybe Mahomes and the spot has to be 10.

[YoloinOhio]

I agree. The fact that Pegs was on his horse checking out these prospects spoke volumes to me. So who do you think it is and what is the value spot? My gut tells me its MT or maybe Mahomes and the spot has to be 10.

i have no idea which one, but I think it will be after pick 10.

[starrymessenger]

i have no idea which one, but I think it will be after pick 10.

Not sure I agree. To me the top prospects are the ones I mentioned and there is no way IMO that they are around in rd 2. The Bills already are short of picks this year relative to the postions they need to address so I dont see them trading up. If you are really serious about a QB to me you just go and get him.

i have no idea which one, but I think it will be after pick 10.

Or do you think they may be setting up to trade back and still nab the guy they want. Risky?

[BillsFan4]

I agree. The fact that Pegs was on his horse checking out these prospects spoke volumes to me. So who do you think it is and what is the value spot? My gut tells me its MT or maybe Mahomes and the spot has to be 10.

I am almost starting to think maybe Deshaun Watson, because nothing has come out about the Bills privately working him out and going to dinner with him.

 

That comment came out about Whaley being in love with him, then after that we see all the stuff about the Bills scouting every other top QB in this class...

 

lol. No, I have no idea who their top QB is or where they value him. Personally, I hope they don't value any of these QBs in the top 10.

 

Also remember, the Bills were rumored to be heavily scouting the QB class last year too (with rumors of them maybe even trading to #2) and Pegula went to dinner with Bryce Petty the year of his draft (and I believe he even flew to Texas to do so).

 

I mean, I definitely think the Bills are interested in finding their franchise QB in the draft. But I have no idea if they will draft one this year.

They've been putting much more effort into scouting QBs since Pegula took over the team.

[26CornerBlitz]

@SalSports

Video and overview of five QBs the Bills have been linked to so far: http://www.wgr550.com/articles/news/bills-are-getting-know-college-qbs-so-should-you via @AddThis

[YoloinOhio]

Not sure I agree. To me the top prospects are the ones I mentioned and there is no way IMO that they are around in rd 2. The Bills already are short of picks this year relative to the postions they need to address so I dont see them trading up. If you are really serious about a QB to me you just go and get him.

 

Or do you think they may be setting up to trade back and still nab the guy they want. Risky?

i just don't think any are worth pick 10 and I'm not convinced they are all in on just one of them to where they panic and take him early. They may be content to see who falls to them in round 2 or a round one trade down.

[CanadianFan]

Do teams really put in a lot of work just to set up smoke screens? Maybe they do. In a class like this year's maybe the smokescreen is to create confusion concerning which QB the Bills are really interested in so teams wont trade up ahead of them. Still I can't get rid of this feeling that if MT is there at 10 he is on his way to Buffalo. The team can now cut bait with Tyrod next year.

 

do you remember all the Bills talk around Hackenberg before that draft? Did the bills really have an interest in him? I don't think they did. but it moved the Jets to take him earlier than thought. the kid is still on the bench.

[starrymessenger]

I am almost starting to think maybe Deshaun Watson, because nothing has come out about the Bills privately working him out and going to dinner with him.

That comment came out about Whaley being in love with him, then after that we see all the stuff about the Bills scouting every other top QB in this class...

lol. No, I have no idea who their top QB is or where they value him. Personally, I hope they don't value any of these QBs in the top 10.

Also remember, the Bills were rumored to be heavily scouting the QB class last year too (with rumors of them maybe even trading to #2) and Pegula went to dinner with Bryce Petty the year of his draft (and I believe he even flew to Texas to do so).

I mean, I definitely think the Bills are interested in finding their franchise QB in the draft. But I have no idea if they will draft one this year.

They've been putting much more effort into scouting QBs since Pegula took over the team.

Good points & thanks for the reminder. At least they seem to now be giving the position the attention it deserves.

[YoloinOhio]

 

do you remember all the Bills talk around Hackenberg before that draft? Did the bills really have an interest in him? I don't think they did. but it moved the Jets to take him earlier than thought. the kid is still on the bench.

that is what they try to do.. by showing so much interest in the QBs it feels like they could take one at 10 or 44 or in between. which could make other teams panic and take a QB earlier than they want to and push better players down for the Bills.

 

Still think they take one at some point.