RD 1, Pick 19: DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson University

[CommonCents]

 

They do play spring ball, BTW... so not exactly 8-9 months in between games. If he gets the surgery in the offseason he risks being put further down the depth chart and possibly never getting a shot at starting.

It is 8-9 months inbetween games. They have one live scrimmage that is Clemson Orange vs. Clemson White. Just keep passing the shovel around and digging deeper. No real need to defend the pick, no ones bashing it. False claims were made and backed up by more nonsense. When discussing the pick it is far more REALISTIC that the gargantuan brace he wore allowed him to function as a consensus All American. He then gets drafted, the team asks him to do some drills without the brace and they see something they don't like, that worries them about the long term. Thus surgery and rehab! Protecting their investment, no need to spin it any other way.

 

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/Shaq-Lawson-injury-update-21876 His Knee was the concern late in the year for the NCG game. His shoulder wasn't even discussed, just to further the thought about his shoulder. Here is the link where he originally injured it...3 years ago. http://www.tigernet.com/m/view/news_update.do?id=13073

[John from Riverside]

Oh so during 13' and 14' he decided that it was best to continue to play at 70 percent as a back up instead of getting his shoulder fixed and being able to play at 100 percent. Got it.

 

The injury has a 5-6 month recovery period, he chose not to have the surgery done after the 13' and 14' seasons in which he would have roughly 8-9 months inbetween games. When supporting your team isn't enough... one should go out of his or her way to create scenarios in which anything that may be bad is actually good.

I honestly am not clowning you here when I ask this

 

Do you understand the concept of competition in college football for roster spots and playing time......do you understand that at any given time recruits are brought into compete and the choices you make can move you right to the bench and scouts not even knowing who you are? HOW MANY Clemson players were drafted this year? The team is stacked with talent.

 

What I present to you....is that there might be stud edge players ready to go at Clemson just foaming at the mouth to take Lawson and Dodd's spots.

 

Sooooooo given that scenario....do you understand why Lawson would play with an upper body injury if he could?

[Wayne Cubed]

It is 8-9 months inbetween games. They have one live scrimmage that is Clemson Orange vs. Clemson White. Just keep passing the shovel around and digging deeper. No real need to defend the pick, no ones bashing it. False claims were made and backed up by more nonsense. When discussing the pick it is far more REALISTIC that the gargantuan brace he wore allowed him to function as a consensus All American. He then gets drafted, the team asks him to do some drills without the brace and they see something they don't like, that worries them about the long term. Thus surgery and rehab! Protecting their investment, no need to spin it any other way.

 

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/Shaq-Lawson-injury-update-21876 His Knee was the concern late in the year for the NCG game. His shoulder wasn't even discussed, just to further the thought about his shoulder. Here is the link where he originally injured it...3 years ago. http://www.tigernet.com/m/view/news_update.do?id=13073

 

Spin it? Defend the pick? I'm providing a possible explanation as to why he may have opted not to have the surgery during his college years. I'm not even discussing the pick. You mentioned that he didn't chose to get it done in 13' or 14' while at Clemson.

 

And they have one live scrimmage AND practices. You act like missing that, for a player who hadn't earned a starting spot on the team, is no big deal.

[CommonCents]

 

Spin it? Defend the pick? I'm providing a possible explanation as to why he may have opted not to have the surgery during his college years. I'm not even discussing the pick. You mentioned that he didn't chose to get it done in 13' or 14' while at Clemson.

 

And they have one live scrimmage AND practices. You act like missing that, for a player who hadn't earned a starting spot on the team, is no big deal.

It's a major surgery I didn't say it wasn't a big deal. It would take a major failure by Clemson and Lawson to let him play with an existing injury that has him playing at "70" percent for 3 years. As I mentioned above his shoulder wasn't talked about... He never missed a game or practice with it. I think it's much more likely he found comfort with the brace and his performance and actions support that. I'm still convinced that he wanted to continue to play with the brace this season and therefore the confusion about his and Whaley's comments. He is a hard working kid who will give us plenty to talk about on the field, i just don't see the need to put fluff on everything.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

It is 8-9 months inbetween games. They have one live scrimmage that is Clemson Orange vs. Clemson White. Just keep passing the shovel around and digging deeper. No real need to defend the pick, no ones bashing it. False claims were made and backed up by more nonsense. When discussing the pick it is far more REALISTIC that the gargantuan brace he wore allowed him to function as a consensus All American. He then gets drafted, the team asks him to do some drills without the brace and they see something they don't like, that worries them about the long term. Thus surgery and rehab! Protecting their investment, no need to spin it any other way.

 

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/Shaq-Lawson-injury-update-21876 His Knee was the concern late in the year for the NCG game. His shoulder wasn't even discussed, just to further the thought about his shoulder. Here is the link where he originally injured it...3 years ago. http://www.tigernet.com/m/view/news_update.do?id=13073

To be fair I dont think Shaq wore a brace in practice. His combine workouts and pro day he no brace and did drills similar to the one he hurt himself on.

 

The whole situation s strange. Nothing really changed with Shaq, The Bills are the ones that changed their minds. Shaq could have played without surgery.

[What a Tuel]

you all play pretty loose with numbers. he has a 4 year contract. coming back in Nov is more like 8 games which constitutes 1/8 of his contracted time before he plays his first down. that's common sense.

 

As others have mentioned he has a 4 year contract with a 5th year team option. Also, I know I said 6 games, but I also said .5 years which is half of the season, or 8 games. There is a range in the recovery time after all.

 

Either way, Whaley picked his guy. You can attack him all you want if Shaq doesn't turn out, but it isn't crazy for a GM to look at the long term worth of the player rather than just the first half year. Whaley made the informed decision that Shaq was worth it, and now time will tell. I wouldn't want it any other way.

Edited June 8, 2016 by What a Tuel

[John from Riverside]

 

As others have mentioned he has a 4 year contract with a 5th year team option. Also, I know I said 6 games, but I also said 4.5 years which is half of the season, or 8 games. There is a range in the recovery time after all.

 

Either way, Whaley picked his guy. You can attack him all you want if Shaq doesn't turn out, but it isn't crazy for a GM to look at the long term worth of the player rather than just the first half year. Whaley made the informed decision that Shaq was worth it, and now time will tell. I wouldn't want it any other way.

So what happens if Shaq Lawson ends up being a productive player when he comes back in year 1.....and abolutely owns it in year 2 on.......then the bills end up doing what they HAVE been doing and sign their own good players? That is a 2nd contract as well.

Why not look at the positive of drafting a young promising edge rather then looking at the negative all the time? (this is not directed at you Tuel)

[Augie]

So what happens if Shaq Lawson ends up being a productive player when he comes back in year 1.....and abolutely owns it in year 2 on.......then the bills end up doing what they HAVE been doing and sign their own good players? That is a 2nd contract as well.

Why not look at the positive of drafting a young promising edge rather then looking at the negative all the time? (this is not directed at you Tuel)

Is that type of thinking allowed?

 

What if it were not a pre-exiting condition and he tweaked a knee in the first OTA. Who do we blame then? I realize the front office has to be held accountable, but I'm OK with some calculated risk to get the best players. Will he turn out to be great? I have no idea, but I'm willing to wait and see.

[BarleyNY]

So what happens if Shaq Lawson ends up being a productive player when he comes back in year 1.....and abolutely owns it in year 2 on.......then the bills end up doing what they HAVE been doing and sign their own good players? That is a 2nd contract as well.

Why not look at the positive of drafting a young promising edge rather then looking at the negative all the time? (this is not directed at you Tuel)

The criticism of picking a player who had a high chance of missing part or all of his first season due to a pre-existing injury is valid. Some models of draft pick valuation consider the cost savings of a player on a rookie contract versus what an equivalent veteran would cost. The value portion of those contracts is for 4 seasons. The Bills are going to lose a portion of that value with Lawson, probably close to one full season - or 25% of his rookie contract value. He was at the end of the pick band that I had him in so I can't really give a bump for value at 19. Lawson at 19 is a mistake from that point of view.

 

But those models use averages and variances. About 50% of the 1st round picks in this draft (every draft) will bust. So to your point, nobody will care about this missed season if he's a long terms stud for the Bills. I really liked Lawson as a player (injury aside) so I personally like his chances long term. We are all rooting for him to work out and become a difference maker. It is not fair to criticize Lawson for this situation or call him out as a bust. But the people and processes that led to taking him with a torn labrum at 19 do deserve scrutiny because even if they get away with it this time this kind of mismanagement will lead to problems at some point.

[Nanker]

It's a major surgery I didn't say it wasn't a big deal. It would take a major failure by Clemson and Lawson to let him play with an existing injury that has him playing at "70" percent for 3 years. As I mentioned above his shoulder wasn't talked about... He never missed a game or practice with it. I think it's much more likely he found comfort with the brace and his performance and actions support that. I'm still convinced that he wanted to continue to play with the brace this season and therefore the confusion about his and Whaley's comments. He is a hard working kid who will give us plenty to talk about on the field, i just don't see the need to put fluff on everything.

You do know the definition of "major surgery", right?

[3rdand12]

You do know the definition of "major surgery", right?

when you have a spleen removed, or things like that?

[CommonCents]

You do know the definition of "major surgery", right?

If I was going to miss 5-6 months of work my boss would consider that major surgery.

[Augie]

You do know the definition of "major surgery", right?

 

Any surgery that happens to "ME".

[John from Riverside]

The criticism of picking a player who had a high chance of missing part or all of his first season due to a pre-existing injury is valid. Some models of draft pick valuation consider the cost savings of a player on a rookie contract versus what an equivalent veteran would cost. The value portion of those contracts is for 4 seasons. The Bills are going to lose a portion of that value with Lawson, probably close to one full season - or 25% of his rookie contract value. He was at the end of the pick band that I had him in so I can't really give a bump for value at 19. Lawson at 19 is a mistake from that point of view.

 

But those models use averages and variances. About 50% of the 1st round picks in this draft (every draft) will bust. So to your point, nobody will care about this missed season if he's a long terms stud for the Bills. I really liked Lawson as a player (injury aside) so I personally like his chances long term. We are all rooting for him to work out and become a difference maker. It is not fair to criticize Lawson for this situation or call him out as a bust. But the people and processes that led to taking him with a torn labrum at 19 do deserve scrutiny because even if they get away with it this time this kind of mismanagement will lead to problems at some point.

I also think that the equation of losing some games from a rookie to injury is valid.....how can it not be? but is it any less then a rookie going down with an injury in training camp where they miss significant time? Does that pick also become less valuable due to the unforseen if they miss the same amount of games?

 

My point is this......lets say that Lawson misses.....say.....5 games....then he comes back....and he is sprinkled into the lineup splitting time with Manny Lawson.....he doesnt win rookie of the year.....but gets better and better with each game....by the end of the season being a actual playmaker...now lets get really kool aid and say that the bills win enough games to make the post season....and lets say by that time Shaq is really hitting his stride (while still spitting time with Manny Lawson)

 

In year 2 he takes over the starting spot....and makes the pro bowl in year 2

 

Does this make up for the percentage of missed games in year 1? I would think that it would.

[BillsBytheBay]

If I was going to miss 5-6 months of work my boss would consider that major surgery.

I'm curious what your occupation is. I belive many of the injuries that keep NFL players out for time, wouldn't effect us the same way. I could and would work with Sammy's and Lawson's injuries.

 

Just, not fair to use how long you'll be out of work as a condition for "major surgey"

I tore my meniscus in the army. They considered it minor surgery. I was on profile for 4 months after surgery.

[CommonCents]

I'm curious what your occupation is. I belive many of the injuries that keep NFL players out for time, wouldn't effect us the same way. I could and would work with Sammy's and Lawson's injuries.

 

Just, not fair to use how long you'll be out of work as a condition for "major surgey"

Oh well I said it was a major surgery for Lawson and got nitpicked for it. It's safe to say all estimates are that he is going to be unable to do his job for 5-6 months. That's major. We are discussing Shaq Lawson, not me. Pick a surgery that would put you out of work for the better part of a year and classify it. I'm done.

[birdog1960]

The criticism of picking a player who had a high chance of missing part or all of his first season due to a pre-existing injury is valid. Some models of draft pick valuation consider the cost savings of a player on a rookie contract versus what an equivalent veteran would cost. The value portion of those contracts is for 4 seasons. The Bills are going to lose a portion of that value with Lawson, probably close to one full season - or 25% of his rookie contract value. He was at the end of the pick band that I had him in so I can't really give a bump for value at 19. Lawson at 19 is a mistake from that point of view.

 

But those models use averages and variances. About 50% of the 1st round picks in this draft (every draft) will bust. So to your point, nobody will care about this missed season if he's a long terms stud for the Bills. I really liked Lawson as a player (injury aside) so I personally like his chances long term. We are all rooting for him to work out and become a difference maker. It is not fair to criticize Lawson for this situation or call him out as a bust. But the people and processes that led to taking him with a torn labrum at 19 do deserve scrutiny because even if they get away with it this time this kind of mismanagement will lead to problems at some point.

this.

 

the difference between this and the other rookie injury examples is that this was foreseeable. many teams not called the bills appear to have predicted a problem.

[BillsBytheBay]

@commonsence

 

I kinda did.

And it kinda got classified for me.

 

Whaley expects him to become a dominant type player. He doesn't care about the first four months of his career. If they missed on the pick when he comes back...flame away.

When you're in the business of accumulating talent, you take chances. EVERY team does. I promise they have a risk management or risk assessment system. Do I know this? No. But it's asinine to belive they were ignorant when making the pick.

I guess when we see what kind of player he is I'll make my judgmeng... on Lawson and Whaley both.

Edited June 9, 2016 by JaxBills

[BarleyNY]

I also think that the equation of losing some games from a rookie to injury is valid.....how can it not be? but is it any less then a rookie going down with an injury in training camp where they miss significant time? Does that pick also become less valuable due to the unforseen if they miss the same amount of games?

 

My point is this......lets say that Lawson misses.....say.....5 games....then he comes back....and he is sprinkled into the lineup splitting time with Manny Lawson.....he doesnt win rookie of the year.....but gets better and better with each game....by the end of the season being a actual playmaker...now lets get really kool aid and say that the bills win enough games to make the post season....and lets say by that time Shaq is really hitting his stride (while still spitting time with Manny Lawson)

 

In year 2 he takes over the starting spot....and makes the pro bowl in year 2

 

Does this make up for the percentage of missed games in year 1? I would think that it would.

That's a lot of "what ifs". There isn't much that can be done in regards to injuries once a player is acquired - sound conditioning programs, proper practice safety rules, etc. - and the rest is luck. The difference between drafting an injured player and drafting a healthy player is strictly in the valuation of the player as it pertains to draft capital. An injured player is (unsurprisingly) worth less than an uninjured one. That's why Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith went at the top of the second round instead of top 5 overall. Again, this isn't a criticism of Lawson, it's a criticism of the FO. Hopefully Lawson makes us all forget about the time he misses this season, but that doesn't mean picking him with a torn labrum at 19 was a smart move. It wasn't. But it could still work out in the long run. It's like a poker player drawing to an inside straight. Sure, sometimes it works out, but it's never a smart play and if he does it often enough it'll cost him.

[YattaOkasan]

this.

 

the difference between this and the other rookie injury examples is that this was foreseeable. many teams not called the bills appear to have predicted a problem.

I still don't understand that basis for this argument. Do you have evidence that he was overlooked? His "drop" seemed to be from Bears @ 11 (who moved up to get Floyd) to Bills @ 19. In between a multiple tackles were selected by teams that didn't have an OLB or DE need. Yes we scooped him up at 19 so its hard to say how far he would've dropped, but I am not convinced he dropped far.

That's a lot of "what ifs". There isn't much that can be done in regards to injuries once a player is acquired - sound conditioning programs, proper practice safety rules, etc. - and the rest is luck. The difference between drafting an injured player and drafting a healthy player is strictly in the valuation of the player as it pertains to draft capital. An injured player is (unsurprisingly) worth less than an uninjured one. That's why Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith went at the top of the second round instead of top 5 overall. Again, this isn't a criticism of Lawson, it's a criticism of the FO. Hopefully Lawson makes us all forget about the time he misses this season, but that doesn't mean picking him with a torn labrum at 19 was a smart move. It wasn't. But it could still work out in the long run. It's like a poker player drawing to an inside straight. Sure, sometimes it works out, but it's never a smart play and if he does it often enough it'll cost him.

So you make a strong point, but I can still see Lawson having value @ 19 with THIS injury. Obviously Jack and Smith had much more concerning injuries which is why they went so much later. If Shaq's knee were a problem still, then he would've dropped as well. I think the odds are better than an inside straight. Can we say a two pair drawing on full house (I don't think this injury takes him out of the hand like missing on an inside straight does)?

 

Its definitely possible the FO fed us some baloney but I'm a little skeptical. Either way I can understand the criticism. My biggest issue/concern was the 3 week delay. They really had better have believed he could play otherwise they ARE idiots.