Post-Polian failure, and why Nix may be different

[Orton's Arm]

Over the last 40 years, the Bills have used 25% of their first picks of the draft on RBs, and another 25% on DBs. The Bills' decision to use fully 50% of their first picks of the draft on RBs and DBs is one of the reasons why this team has traditionally had a losing record.

 

(Note that the concept of a first pick of the draft is not interchangeable with a first round pick. Jim Kelly, for example, was a first round pick. But he wasn't the Bills' first pick of the draft, because the Bills chose a TE two picks earlier.)

 

During the post-Polian/pre-Nix era, the Bills have used first picks of the draft on the following DBs:

• Thomas Smith. Result: seven years of decent play
  
• Jeff Burris. Result: left the team after four years. Had a ten year career.
  
• Antoine Winfield. Result: left the team after five years. Had a thirteen year career.
  
• Nate Clements. Result: left the team after six years. Has had an eleven year career thus far.
  
• Donte Whitner. Result: bust
  
• Leodis McKelvin. Result: bust

 

There are no success stories on the above list. Some of the DBs left early because they were busts, and some left early because the team decided to let them go first-contract-and-out. Either way, first round DBs didn't stay long. The Bills responded by using early picks on the replacements for those DBs.

 

In the post-Polian/pre-Nix era, the Bills have used first picks of the draft on the following RBs:

• Antowain Smith. Result: bust
  
• Willis McGahee. Result: disappointment
  
• Marshawn Lynch. Result: bust

 

The above list would be longer if it included Travis Henry (second round) and Spiller (a Nix pick). Also, Butler only used one first or second round pick on a RB, which means he used early picks on RBs at a much lower rate than TD or Marv. (Which is one of the things Butler did right.) Needless to say, there are no success stories on the above list.

 

I'm not suggesting that it's always a mistake for a team to use a first round pick on a RB or DB. If Antoine Winfield, for example, had been retained for the entirety of his career, he would have represented an excellent use of the Bills' first round pick. The reason Antoine Winfield didn't become a success story for the Bills was because of their strategy of allowing their best DBs to go first-contract-and-out.

 

During the post-Polian era, the Bills have had severe problems at QB and on the offensive line. They used three first round picks on the QB position: Rob Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, and JP Losman. One of those was a trade for another team's aging backup, and did not represent a real effort to find a long-term solution to the problem at QB. That means just two first round picks were used on attempts to find a long-term answer at quarterback, as opposed to nine on DBs + RBs. Similarly, only two first round picks were used on OTs during the post-Polian era, despite the fact the Bills' offensive line has typically been disappointing at best during that time.

 

Bill from NYC's opposition to using early picks on RBs or DBs is a rational response to the last 20 years of Bills' history. The number of early picks used on those positions has been excessive, and not once during the post-Polian/pre-Nix era has any first round DB or RB resulted in a success story. The team has had very severe problems elsewhere--especially at QB and on the OL--because too many picks were squandered on RBs and DBs.

 

But just because Nix has used first round picks on a RB and a DB, does not necessarily mean he's falling into the same trap as his predecessors. One of the reasons the post-Polian first round RBs were busts was because none of them were anything special at catching passes out of the backfield. Spiller might be. He also seems like a faster, more elusive runner than the other post-Polian first round RBs.

 

The problem with post-Polian DBs has been that even when a first round pick was successful (a good player) it was still a failure (first-contract-and-out). Thus far, Nix has been very good at keeping the players worth keeping. This means that if Gilmore plays well, there's a chance he'll be retained for most or all his career.

 

If Spiller and Gilmore turn into success stories, they will do two things. 1) Strengthen the team at RB and DB, respectively. 2) Discourage the team from using first round picks on RBs and DBs, thereby freeing those picks up for use elsewhere.

[Meathead]

stopped reading at whitner: bust

Edited May 25, 2012 by Meathead

[uncle flap]

I don't want to take the time to do the research to see if the following is in fact true, but I have a theory.

 

Players at those positions cost more than most other positions to re-sign once the player hits the open market in the prime of their careers.

 

They also seemingly hit the wall at an earlier age than most other positions.

 

So, economically, it would seem to make sense to draft these players early to get the best prospects and try to get some good years out of them while the cost is low, and not breaking the bank to re-sign them when they don't have many years left, even if they are in their prime at the time.

 

My theory is that the Bills aren't the only team who have followed a model like that. I think the problem lies more in the production/talent of those players than the position they play(ed).

 

Just playing Devil's advocate here. Personally, I think you should plan on every guy you draft as being a Bill for life. I agree that Nix is operating on a long term plan and isn't just making knee-jerk reactions like his predecessors seemingly were doing. If you draft a guy who is panning out for you, lock him up early and avoid the FA bidding war. However, it takes two to tango. Maybe Winfield or Clements were approached with reasonable deals, but turned them down knowing there was a huge payday on the horizon.

 

I mentioned in another thread that unlike past regimes that have drafted to fill holes, Nix is being proactive. The example I used was that the Bills didn't pick Glenn because Bell left, they let Bell go because they planned on drafting an LT early.

[Adam]

Whitner was pretty good last year. Antowain Smith was a respectable part of a team that won the superbowl Lynch has played well for Seattle. Smith and Burris were very good. MaGahee was solid.

[Malazan]

This post lacks coherence and cohesion.

[Best Player Available]

This post lacks coherence and cohesion.

It's also filled with confusion.

[chris heff]

It's also filled with confusion.

 

And convoluted.

[Adam]

It's also filled with confusion.

And collusion.

[sllib olaffub]

I think it would be very easy to go back and look at how Buffalo missed on players they should have drafted, with the wisdom of knowing which players ended up worthy of the first round. But, the premise of the post - that Buffalo has wasted far too many top picks on two positions is valid; I will go further and say that as far as I am concerned, if an NFL team doesn't have a franchise QB, they should do anything they have to do to secure the best one they can get. That means, going back ten years, if Buffalo had to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to land Cam Newton, or Aaron Rodgers, or some great QB - then it would have been worth it, simply because without that QB there is little to build a team around.

 

But, if you have the QB, you can do a lot of building in F.A. and in rounds 2 and after. Another point, and this is probably one of the two biggest issues causing Buffalo to be so bad these past years - they simply weren't that great at recognizing talent. You've got to see and recognize which players are worth the moves. Now, Buffalo seems pretty good at evaluating talent. I think Nix is fixing this team proper, and I think if Fitz is not great this year, or if V.Y. doesn't turn it around big time, then Nix's next move is to get that Franchise QB.

 

Lastly, when it comes to the problem of the Bills - it was a certain cheapness in regard players. That did influence their contracts and drafting, no doubt. Not that they wouldn't spend money - it was more like, until just recently, they seemed to view their team as not quite good enough to really invest in.

[thewildrabbit]

Over the last 40 years, the Bills have used 25% of their first picks of the draft on RBs, and another 25% on DBs. The Bills' decision to use fully 50% of their first picks of the draft on RBs and DBs is one of the reasons why this team has traditionally had a losing record.

 

(Note that the concept of a first pick of the draft is not interchangeable with a first round pick. Jim Kelly, for example, was a first round pick. But he wasn't the Bills' first pick of the draft, because the Bills chose a TE two picks earlier.)

 

During the post-Polian/pre-Nix era, the Bills have used first picks of the draft on the following DBs:

• Thomas Smith. Result: seven years of decent play
• Jeff Burris. Result: left the team after four years. Had a ten year career.
• Antoine Winfield. Result: left the team after five years. Had a thirteen year career.
• Nate Clements. Result: left the team after six years. Has had an eleven year career thus far.
• Donte Whitner. Result: bust
• Leodis McKelvin. Result: bust

 

There are no success stories on the above list. Some of the DBs left early because they were busts, and some left early because the team decided to let them go first-contract-and-out. Either way, first round DBs didn't stay long. The Bills responded by using early picks on the replacements for those DBs.

 

In the post-Polian/pre-Nix era, the Bills have used first picks of the draft on the following RBs:

• Antowain Smith. Result: bust
• Willis McGahee. Result: disappointment
• Marshawn Lynch. Result: bust

 

The above list would be longer if it included Travis Henry (second round) and Spiller (a Nix pick). Also, Butler only used one first or second round pick on a RB, which means he used early picks on RBs at a much lower rate than TD or Marv. (Which is one of the things Butler did right.) Needless to say, there are no success stories on the above list.

 

I'm not suggesting that it's always a mistake for a team to use a first round pick on a RB or DB. If Antoine Winfield, for example, had been retained for the entirety of his career, he would have represented an excellent use of the Bills' first round pick. The reason Antoine Winfield didn't become a success story for the Bills was because of their strategy of allowing their best DBs to go first-contract-and-out.

 

During the post-Polian era, the Bills have had severe problems at QB and on the offensive line. They used three first round picks on the QB position: Rob Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, and JP Losman. One of those was a trade for another team's aging backup, and did not represent a real effort to find a long-term solution to the problem at QB. That means just two first round picks were used on attempts to find a long-term answer at quarterback, as opposed to nine on DBs + RBs. Similarly, only two first round picks were used on OTs during the post-Polian era, despite the fact the Bills' offensive line has typically been disappointing at best during that time.

 

Bill from NYC's opposition to using early picks on RBs or DBs is a rational response to the last 20 years of Bills' history. The number of early picks used on those positions has been excessive, and not once during the post-Polian/pre-Nix era has any first round DB or RB resulted in a success story. The team has had very severe problems elsewhere--especially at QB and on the OL--because too many picks were squandered on RBs and DBs.

 

But just because Nix has used first round picks on a RB and a DB, does not necessarily mean he's falling into the same trap as his predecessors. One of the reasons the post-Polian first round RBs were busts was because none of them were anything special at catching passes out of the backfield. Spiller might be. He also seems like a faster, more elusive runner than the other post-Polian first round RBs.

 

The problem with post-Polian DBs has been that even when a first round pick was successful (a good player) it was still a failure (first-contract-and-out). Thus far, Nix has been very good at keeping the players worth keeping. This means that if Gilmore plays well, there's a chance he'll be retained for most or all his career.

 

If Spiller and Gilmore turn into success stories, they will do two things. 1) Strengthen the team at RB and DB, respectively. 2) Discourage the team from using first round picks on RBs and DBs, thereby freeing those picks up for use elsewhere.

Not only Whitner being a starting safety his entire career, last year he played on a 13-3 team that won up to the NFC championship game. NWIH is Whitner a bust!

 

Antoine Smith went to the Patriots after he left the Bills and he took them to a SB win as the starting RB.

 

Lynch took his new team to the playoffs last year. The Seahawks were happy as hell to get him for a measly 4th.

 

Aaron Maybin drafted with a first round pick specifically as a pass rusher and the Bills couldn't get one sack outta him in his 2 years in Buffalo. Gets picked up by the Jets and gets 6 sacks!

 

A bust is John McCargo, 1st round pick that didn't do a GD thing his entire career, and still hasn't!

 

I think this thread speaks more about the Bills coaches then it does about the GM, to me coaching is everything.

 

 

Nix screwed up big time in his first Bills draft and free agency period. From a #1 pick at RB that has been a back up for 2 years with a team desperate for starters at so many positions to Cornell Green at RT! Can we all stop comparing a GM that still hasn't had a winning season to a certain HoF GM. The Bills have had bad coaching, bad GM's, bad head of scouting since John Butler / AJ Smith left for SD, and so far Nix / Gailey have yet to prove that has changed.

 

It has more to do with an owner who didn't care if his team won or not during the decade 2000-2010 more then anything else.

 

 

 

 

 

Worst post I've ever read from ya EA

[Bill from NYC]

You guys can blast away at EA, but please, tell us why the Bills have a long term, established history of losing football games. Look, we all love this franchise. But while teams were drafting impact players, we were drafting Donte Whitner. Whitner, on the Bills, gave up touchdown passes to TE after TE, and was flattened by who? Sammy Morris.

Does this ring a bell?

A. Smth was a so-so running back on the Bills because we had no foundation. After Polian left, Levy gained power, and the Bills drafted a sick number of DBs. They played out their contracts and left. When he came back as GM, he tanked the 06 draft, which was stacked. Then he signed free agents who sucked. And let's not forget the hiring of Jauron, a proven incompetent loser.

Levy is heralded by many, but imo he was a not so great coach who inherited lots of talent from Polian. As a GM, he was 100x worse.

I can barely stomach the Gilmore selection. It was a stupid pick imo, but at least we firmed up the defensive foundation via free agency.

EA, imo, is making tons of sense. There is little reason to believe, looking at Bills history, that picks such as Spiller and Gilmore were anything but stupid. It may work THIS time, but it never has.

Once again we can hope, but this is what we do.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Beerball]

And collusion.

Are you confounded?

[thewildrabbit]

I think it would be very easy to go back and look at how Buffalo missed on players they should have drafted, with the wisdom of knowing which players ended up worthy of the first round. But, the premise of the post - that Buffalo has wasted far too many top picks on two positions is valid; I will go further and say that as far as I am concerned, if an NFL team doesn't have a franchise QB, they should do anything they have to do to secure the best one they can get. That means, going back ten years, if Buffalo had to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to land Cam Newton, or Aaron Rodgers, or some great QB - then it would have been worth it, simply because without that QB there is little to build a team around.

 

But, if you have the QB, you can do a lot of building in F.A. and in rounds 2 and after. Another point, and this is probably one of the two biggest issues causing Buffalo to be so bad these past years - they simply weren't that great at recognizing talent. You've got to see and recognize which players are worth the moves. Now, Buffalo seems pretty good at evaluating talent. I think Nix is fixing this team proper, and I think if Fitz is not great this year, or if V.Y. doesn't turn it around big time, then Nix's next move is to get that Franchise QB.

 

Lastly, when it comes to the problem of the Bills - it was a certain cheapness in regard players. That did influence their contracts and drafting, no doubt. Not that they wouldn't spend money - it was more like, until just recently, they seemed to view their team as not quite good enough to really invest in.

The Biggest problem of this franchise since John Butler / Bill Polian has been the lack of ability to even identify good talent at all, at almost any position. I suppose a premise could be made that it was easier to identify the talent in RB's & DB's vs other positions. So perhaps that is why the team went that way so many times, or perhaps because this owner saw what OJ Simpson and Thurman Thomas did for his franchise he will always want to draft RB's with that #1 pick.

 

The Bills tried to draft their franchise QB when they traded back up into the first round for JP Losman.... it certainly didn't help to have so many coaching changes (bad coaches), scheme changes(bad schemes) during Losman's career in Buffalo.

 

 

 

 

Two things make me think the Bills might be finally moving in the right direction.

 

First, is the fact that the Bills (Buddy Nix stated such) would have selected Cam Newton if he had been available. This is significant in the fact that they didn't think any other QB was worth that #3 overall in 2010. Plus the fact that they didn't go QB again this year tells me they must think enough of Fitz to not be pulling the trigger on drafting any QB. It also tells me that the Bills now have finally the ability to actually identify top QB talent when they see it.

 

Second, the fact that Buddy Nix was able to obtain Mario Williams at 100 mill shows me that the team finally wants to win again, rather then just put butts in seats and make a profit. We still need to see if what the Bills have done this off season equates to wins

 

You guys can blast away at EA, but please, tell us why the Bills have a long term, established history of losing football games. Look, we all love this franchise. But while teams were drafting impact players, we were drafting Donte Whitner. Whitner, on the Bills, gave up touchdown passes to TE after TE, and was flattened by who? Sammy Morris. youtube.com/watch?v=UAHWsKoSN7M

Does this ring a bell?

A. Smth was a so-so running back on the Bills because we had no foundation. After Polian left, Levy gained power, and the Bills drafted a sick number of DBs. They played out their contracts and left. When he came back as GM, he tanked the 06 draft, which was stacked. Then he signed free agents who sucked. And let's not forget the hiring of Jauron, a proven incompetent loser.

Levy is heralded by many, but imo he was a not so great coach who inherited lots of talent from Polian. As a GM, he was 100x worse.

I can barely stomach the Gilmore selection. It was a stupid pick imo, but at least we firmed up the defensive foundation via free agency.

EA, imo, is making tons of sense. There is little reason to believe, looking at Bills history, that picks such as Spiller and Gilmore were anything but stupid. It may work THIS time, but it never has.

Once again we can hope, but this is what we do.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bill, you keep blasting guys like Donte Whitner because the Bills drafted him with a #1 pick when the rest of the NFL world had him graded as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Was that his fault he was drafted so high and coached so badly in Buffalo? Like I said, Donte just started on a 13-3 team that lost in the playoffs to the team that won the SB.

Whitner is pretty far from a bust. If anything the Bills have proven they don't know how to get production out of many many players. Jaberi Greer with a NO Saints SB ring on his finger ring any bells?

 

Marv Levy didn't gain any power or draft any DB's! However, the GM at that time John Butler did, Dick jauron did. For all we know Jauron is still having nightmares of Tom Brady throwing deep to Randy Moss for TD after TD.

 

Marv Levy is a HoF HC who was asked by his old friend and onwer of the Buffalo Bills Ralph Wilson to come to Buffalo and be his GM. From what I've read Levy only returned because he thought he had a chance to become a head coach again.

 

I would suggest redirecting all that pent up hate of Marv Levy to the man who asked him to be the GM, the man who allowed Dick Jauron to be de facto GM for 2 years. The man who allowed his team to be run by people who should have never been in charge of a sock drawer much less a billion dollar org.

[Bill from NYC]

The Biggest problem of this franchise since John Butler / Bill Polian has been the lack of ability to even identify good talent at all, at almost any position. I suppose a premise could be made that it was easier to identify the talent in RB's & DB's vs other positions. So perhaps that is why the team went that way so many times, or perhaps because this owner saw what OJ Simpson and Thurman Thomas did for his franchise he will always want to draft RB's with that #1 pick.

 

The Bills tried to draft their franchise QB when they traded back up into the first round for JP Losman.... it certainly didn't help to have so many coaching changes (bad coaches), scheme changes(bad schemes) during Losman's career in Buffalo.

 

 

 

 

Two things make me think the Bills might be finally moving in the right direction.

 

First, is the fact that the Bills (Buddy Nix stated such) would have selected Cam Newton if he had been available. This is significant in the fact that they didn't think any other QB was worth that #3 overall in 2010. Plus the fact that they didn't go QB again this year tells me they must think enough of Fitz to not be pulling the trigger on drafting any QB. It also tells me that the Bills now have finally the ability to actually identify top QB talent when they see it.

 

Second, the fact that Buddy Nix was able to obtain Mario Williams at 100 mill shows me that the team finally wants to win again, rather then just put butts in seats and make a profit. We still need to see if what the Bills have done this off season equates to wins

 

 

Bill, you keep blasting guys like Donte Whitner because the Bills drafted him with a #1 pick when the rest of the NFL world had him graded as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Was that his fault he was drafted so high and coached so badly in Buffalo? Like I said, Donte just started on a 13-3 team that lost in the playoffs to the team that won the SB.

Whitner is pretty far from a bust. If anything the Bills have proven they don't know how to get production out of many many players. Jaberi Greer with a NO Saints SB ring on his finger ring any bells?

 

Marv Levy didn't gain any power or draft any DB's! However, the GM at that time John Butler did, Dick jauron did. For all we know Jauron is still having nightmares of Tom Brady throwing deep to Randy Moss for TD after TD.

 

Marv Levy is a HoF HC who was asked by his old friend and onwer of the Buffalo Bills Ralph Wilson to come to Buffalo and be his GM. From what I've read Levy only returned because he thought he had a chance to become a head coach again.

 

I would suggest redirecting all that pent up hate of Marv Levy to the man who asked him to be the GM, the man who allowed Dick Jauron to be de facto GM for 2 years. The man who allowed his team to be run by people who should have never been in charge of a sock drawer much less a billion dollar org.

 

I don't "hate" Levy. I simply will not pour undeserved accolades upon him. If you choose to, be my guest.

There is certainly more blame to go around wrt the failure of this franchise, starting with the owner. But do forgive me if I don't worship at the Levy altar.

[JohnC]

I can barely stomach the Gilmore selection. It was a stupid pick imo, but at least we firmed up the defensive foundation via free agency.

EA, imo, is making tons of sense. There is little reason to believe, looking at Bills history, that picks such as Spiller and Gilmore were anything but stupid. It may work THIS time, but it never has.

Once again we can hope, but this is what we do.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Gilmore was the second best CB in the best conference, SEC. He was a top 8-12 player taken with a top 10 pick. The Bills drafted a LT in the second round. Would you have problems if the Bills took an OT in the first round and then a CB in the second round? In tandem both were good picks. In addition the Gilmore pick made sense with the release of Drayton Florence and the durability isse with McGee.

 

You answered your own concerns about the first pick when you acknowledged that the defensive foundation was addressed via free agency. Given that, then why are you so irritated by the first round pick? I know you were enamored with Hightower, the LB from Bama, but Gilmore was rated higher by every draft analyst that I'm aware of.

 

You have understandably often complained that the organization has a history of not knowing how to build a team. You constantly (smartly) make the point that it is critical to build the lines and then work outward to the skill positions. Stand back and take a look. Nix has done it with the bulking up of both lines. It may not be in the draft sequence you like but your concerns certainly have been addressed.

Edited May 26, 2012 by JohnC

[BillsFanM.D.]

This post lacks coherence and cohesion.

 

 

It's also filled with confusion.

 

 

And convoluted.

 

 

And collusion.

 

 

Are you confounded?

 

the consternation is overwhelming.

[MDH]

The number of early picks used on those positions has been excessive, and not once during the post-Polian/pre-Nix era has any first round DB or RB resulted in a success story.

 

Yes, the number of picks at RB and DB have been excessive but to say there are no success stories simply isn't true.

 

Winfield and Clements both performed at a 1st round level (and Burris and a few others on your list were solid.) The failure with both had nothing to do with the drafting and everything to do with the re-signing. Letting guys play out their rookie deals and walking has been a bigger problem than drafting from these positions and has contributed to the need to continuously re-draft from them. When you hit on a 1st round pick you can't simply let them play their contracts out and let them sign elsewhere only to have to draft that position again. That is a recipe for walking on a treadmill and never improving - which is exactly what the Bills have done.

[thewildrabbit]

I don't "hate" Levy. I simply will not pour undeserved accolades upon him. If you choose to, be my guest.

There is certainly more blame to go around wrt the failure of this franchise, starting with the owner. But do forgive me if I don't worship at the Levy altar.

I don't worship the man, but I do admire him for what he accomplished during his time with the Buffalo Bills.

 

Marv's claim to fame was that he was a special teams coach for George Allen's Rams and Redskins, Marv was never an OC or DC afaik. I can recall the Bills hiring him in 86 after they fired Bullough mid season. I immediately read everything I could on the guy and saw that he tried to run the wing -T while as HC in KC I'm thinking oh. no! They went from Kay Stephenson / Hank Bullough with Jim Ringo as OC to another tool for HC. But then I read that Marv coached the Chiefs for 5 season and they got better every year until the strike year. Then I also read that Levy won 2 grey cups with the Alouettes. He was also the head coach of the USFL Chicago Blitz for a season.

 

Marv was a great head coach as he hired some really good assistant coaches, and let them do their jobs without interfering. Marv was a supreme motivator, and over the course of his career with the Buffalo Bills had some amazing sayings that are now known as "Marvisms" He used to take a quote from the ballad of Sir Andrew Barton said it to his players.

"Fight on, my men," says Sir Andrew Barton,

 

"I am hurt, but I am not slain;

 

I'll lay me down and bleed a while,

 

And then I'll rise and fight again.

 

 

At the start of a game Marv would say.... "Where else would you rather be, then right here, right now!"

 

"Ability without character will lose. The Buffalo Bills are going to be a team of high character."

 

 

A reporter once asked Marv, At one time you hid your age, now you seem to celebrate it. What happened?

 

I came out of the closet on it, I guess. Way back when I was hired in 1986, I was 61 years of age, and it sounded too old so I lied and said I was 58. Finally I cleared that up. Maybe as I matured I came to realize it wasn't a factor. It's what you can do that counts.

 

 

"Norm Pollom (the former Bills chief college scout) is a good personnel man and a good friend of mine. He said, "If we take this guy, he's going to go to the Pro Bowl.' I said, Well, let's take somebody who's going to take us to the Super Bowl. And we picked Shane Conlan."

"I'm old enough to know my limitations and I'm young enough to exceed them."

 

"If you don't change with the times, the times are going to change you."

 

"If you listen to the fans, you will end up being one."

 

"They say two things happen when you get older. One is you begin to forget things . . . and I can't remember what the other one is right now."

 

"don't be dumb, don't be dirty"

 

"Great football coaches have the vision to see, the faith to believe, the courage to do... and 25 great players."

"Security comes from earning it--not seeking it."

"Systems don't win, players do."

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism."

"The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender."

"What it takes to win is simple, it's not easy."

"Plan your work and work your plan."

"If you have everything prepared, the rest will take care of itself."

"What you do should speak so loudly that no one will hear what you say."

"Expect rejection, but expect even more strongly to overcome it."

"There will be many failures sprinkled among the successes you enjoy."

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you."

 

No other head coach has done more for the Buffalo Bills then what Marv levy has done in his 11 year career with the Bills, nobody else is even close.JMO Probably why RW asked an 81 year old Marv Levy to be his GM in 2006

 

 

Edit: wanted to add one I had forgotten. "when its to tough for them, Its just right for us"

Edited May 29, 2012 by Fear the Beard

[Hapless Bills Fan]

During the post-Polian/pre-Nix era, the Bills have used first picks of the draft on the following DBs:

• Thomas Smith. Result: seven years of decent play
• Jeff Burris. Result: left the team after four years. Had a ten year career.
• Antoine Winfield. Result: left the team after five years. Had a thirteen year career.
• Nate Clements. Result: left the team after six years. Has had an eleven year career thus far.
• Donte Whitner. Result: bust
• Leodis McKelvin. Result: bust

In the post-Polian/pre-Nix era, the Bills have used first picks of the draft on the following RBs:

• Antowain Smith. Result: bust
• Willis McGahee. Result: disappointment
• Marshawn Lynch. Result: bust

 

You have an interesting argument regarding the Bills draft choices - certainly it's inarguable that letting a starter who was drafted high leave after one contract only to draft his replacement, is not the path to success.

 

We weren't happy with Whitner's play, yet he started for us, and went to the pro-bowl with the '9ers this year which seems to matter a lot to some folks. Is that really a typical definition of "bust"?

Likewise, Lynch didn't seem willing to give B'lo his best effort, yet using the word "bust" does not seem quite appropriate to describe the 1200 yds and 12 TDs he had for Seattle in 2011. He got a pretty juicy contract for a "bust".

 

To me a "bust" is someone who never sees the field, or who plays abominably when he does. McCargo is more my idea of a bust - drafted in the 1st round, on the team 5 years, started one (1) game.

Maybin was well on his way to Bust-hood - drafted 11th overall in the first round, played three years, started one (1) game - if he continues to have success as a situational pass rusher for the Jets, is "bust" the right word even there?

[MARCELL DAREUS POWER]

to be fair, outside of the 2000 draft, butler was a fantasitc gm. he was the major reason we had good success in 98-00.

 

his 93-99 drafts were really good.

 

ironically nix was the lead scout during this time....

Edited May 26, 2012 by MARCELL DAREUS POWER

[OCinBuffalo]

This post lacks coherence and cohesion.

Perhaps.

 

However, if it causes consideration of correlation vs causation, then, it has high propensity for being 3.5 times longer than the average thread.

I can barely stomach the Gilmore selection. It was a stupid pick imo, but at least we firmed up the defensive foundation via free agency.

EA, imo, is making tons of sense. There is little reason to believe, looking at Bills history, that picks such as Spiller and Gilmore were anything but stupid. It may work THIS time, but it never has.

Bill's position, in general, has been historically proven to be accurate in many threads, long before this one.

 

However, in this instance:

Most mocks had us taking a LT. Hell Holy God had us taking a LT.....but not even he had us taking Kalil. No, everybody had us taking Martin or Glenn, until the very end, when it became clear that neither of those guys were 1st round talent. We still got the LT most of us thought they would take at 10. The draft doesn't happen in a vacuum. Therefore, given our position, and the players available, I don't see how the Gilmore pick was stupid by any definition. So, what would you have us do? Take Glenn at #10 for the sake of symbolism? There's no way the Gilmore pick is stupid. The only thing that remains to be seen is: if Gilmore pans out, will the Bills try to extend him early, or will they let him walk? That's how the cycle EA describes will be broken, and that's how we avoid the endless recycling of DBs.

 

Spiller showed big time last year. Does anybody still doubt that pick...objectively, not "I am still trying to be right"? With an "unknown to them" 28-9 year old RB on the team in Jackson, and the consensus "best player on O" at #5, I don't see how you can fault these guys for taking Spiller. How were they, or any of us, supposed to know that Fred was for real, at that point in time? Consider the team they inherited. They had to be thinking "we need a stud RB, and, we've been ordered to get rid of Lynch, and, we have no clue what to make of Fred, and, we have holes everywhere, therefore, we need a playmaker". I don't see how anyone can be critical of a new FO looking to make the team better instantly with a guy like Spiller. Did I mention, he showed big time last year?

 

All you have to do is apply the same thinking to the QB position, and see the validity of it: "'we need somebody right now who can make an immediate difference, we'll worry about the long term later". They were in desperation mode when they put this team together, and it just so happens that those moves are now paying off. Did they get lucky? I dunno. Seems like a lot of coincidences...to many...to be based solely on luck.

[Meathead]

the op is a perfect example of my 'star or suck' observation

 

some fans have only two grades for players: star or suck

 

youre either bruce smith or aaron maybin, there is no chris kelsay

 

youre either henry jones or coy wire, there is no donte whitner

 

youre either nate odomes or chris williams, there is no thomas smith

 

youre either thurman thomas or shaud williams, there is no antowain smith

 

youre either jim kelly or gary marangi, there is no ryan fitzpatrick

 

when you do that crap youre just invalidating every argument you make about quality of players. every pick cant be a hofer, youve got to have average guys all over your roster. an average nfl starter is still a pretty damn impressive achievement and provides value. you have to evaluate their draft position AND their cap hit AND their production to even begin to determine value to the organization, or the efficacy of management. if you dont do that youre just exposing yourself as wasting everybodys time. but that wont stop you, will it

Edited May 26, 2012 by Meathead

[EasternOHBillsFan]

[*]Antoine Winfield. Result: left the team after five years. Had a thirteen year career.

[*]Nate Clements. Result: left the team after six years. Has had an eleven year career thus far.

 

There are no success stories on the above list. Some of the DBs left early because they were busts, and some left early because the team decided to let them go first-contract-and-out. Either way, first round DBs didn't stay long. The Bills responded by using early picks on the replacements for those DBs.

 

I vehemently disagree with you on the above two former Bills. Even though they didn't stay in Buffalo as FAs, this does not mean they should be disparaged as not being success stories, because they were good picks for us. It is not their fault that their market value was not offered by the Bills, they didn't have the sort of team to succeed with, or that their coaches left little to be desired.

 

I will always look positively on Winfield and Clements, and they deserved better, just like some of the other Bills that had to endure all the mediocrity.

[MARCELL DAREUS POWER]

1999

Rnd Name College Note

1 Antoine Winfield Ohio State

2 Peerless Price Tennessee

3 Shawn Bryson Tennessee

4 Keith Newman North Carolina

4 Bobby Collins North Alabama

5 Jay Foreman Nebraska

6 Armon Hatcher Oregon State

7 Sheldon Jackson Nebraska

7 Bryce Fisher Air Force

 

1998

Rnd Name College Note

2 Sam Cowart Florida State

3 Robert Hicks Mississippi State

5 Jonathan Linton North Carolina

6 Fred Coleman Washington

7 Victor Allotey Indiana

7 Kamil Loud Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo

 

1997

Rnd Name College Note

1 Antowain Smith Houston

2 Marcellus Wiley Columbia

4 Jamie Nails Florida A&M

5 Sean Woodson Jackson State

6 Marcus Spriggs Houston

7 Pat Fitzgerald Texas

 

1996

Rnd Name College Note

1 Eric Moulds Mississippi State

2 Gabe Northern Louisiana State

3 Matt Stevens Appalachian State

4 Sean Moran Colorado State

5 Ray Jackson Colorado State

6 Leon Neal Washington

6 Dusty Ziegler Notre Dame

7 Dan Bradenburg Indiana State

7 Jay Riemersma Michigan

7 Eric Smedley Indiana

 

1995

Rnd Name College Note

1 Reuben Brown Pittsburgh

2 Todd Collins Michigan- was a decent backup for a few games. sucked as a starter.

3 Marlon Kerner Ohio State

3 Damien Covington North Carolina State

4 Ken Irvin Memphis

4 Justin Armour Stanford

4 Tony Cline Stanford

5 John Holecek Illinois

6 Shannon Clavelle Colorado

7 Tom Nutten Western Michigan

7 Darick Holmes Portland State

 

1994

Rnd Name College Note

1 Jeff Burris Notre Dame

2 Bucky Brooks North Carolina

2 Lonnie Johnson Florida State

2 Sam Rogers Colorado

3 Marlo Perry Jackson State

3 Corey Louchiey South Carolina

4 Sean Crocker North Carolina

5 A.J. Ofodile Missouri

6 Anthony Abrams Clark

6 Kevin Knox Florida State

7 Filmel Johnson Illinois

 

1993

Rnd Name College Note

1 Thomas Smith North Carolina

2 John Parrella Nebraska

4 Russell Copeland Memphis

5 Mike Devlin Iowa

5 Sebastian Savage North Carolina State

6 Corbin Lacina Augustana (IL)

7 Willie Harris Mississippi State

8 Chris Leuneberg West Chester (PA)

 

 

I thought butler did a good job!

 

31 starters... not bad

Edited May 27, 2012 by MARCELL DAREUS POWER

[Adam]

the op is a perfect example of my 'star or suck' observation

 

some fans have only two grades for players: star or suck

 

youre either bruce smith or aaron maybin, there is no chris kelsay

 

youre either henry jones or coy wire, there is no donte whitner

 

youre either nate odomes or chris williams, there is no thomas smith

 

youre either thurman thomas or shaud williams, there is no antowain smith

 

youre either jim kelly or gary marangi, there is no ryan fitzpatrick

 

when you do that crap youre just invalidating every argument you make about quality of players. every pick cant be a hofer, youve got to have average guys all over your roster. an average nfl starter is still a pretty damn impressive achievement and provides value. you have to evaluate their draft position AND their cap hit AND their production to even begin to determine value to the organization, or the efficacy of management. if you dont do that youre just exposing yourself as wasting everybodys time. but that wont stop you, will it

ha! You need to check out the PPP board!

[Just in Atlanta]

This post is unsustainable.

[Just in Atlanta]

EA does not dish out praise much. I've got to say Whitner was hardly a bust. But, I hope he's right about Nix being different.

[Reks Ryan]

the op is a perfect example of my 'star or suck' observation

 

some fans have only two grades for players: star or suck

 

youre either bruce smith or aaron maybin, there is no chris kelsay

 

youre either henry jones or coy wire, there is no donte whitner

 

youre either nate odomes or chris williams, there is no thomas smith

 

youre either thurman thomas or shaud williams, there is no antowain smith

 

youre either jim kelly or gary marangi, there is no ryan fitzpatrick

 

when you do that crap youre just invalidating every argument you make about quality of players. every pick cant be a hofer, youve got to have average guys all over your roster. an average nfl starter is still a pretty damn impressive achievement and provides value. you have to evaluate their draft position AND their cap hit AND their production to even begin to determine value to the organization, or the efficacy of management. if you dont do that youre just exposing yourself as wasting everybodys time. but that wont stop you, will it

[Reks Ryan]

Well stated Meatead. Whitner certainly was not the ideal pick at #8. So it can be said that picks like Whitner and A. Smith were not successful picks in terms of the Bills career you expect from a first rounder. But they're also not total busts in the realm of mike williams, Mcargo, or Maybin.

[Bill from NYC]

the op is a perfect example of my 'star or suck' observation

 

some fans have only two grades for players: star or suck

 

What difference does it make if the team is losing? If you don't want to call Whitner a "bust" at #8, that's fine. But drafting him didn't help the Bills win football games. They used him as their first building block to rebuild an ailing franchise. And they passed on players such as Ngata, Mangold, and others who there is no debate about wrt their skills.

 

I think the message EA is sending is that if a team devotes 50% of their best resources to RBs and DBs, said team will consistently lose. Is there really any doubt about this?

[JohnC]

What difference does it make if the team is losing? If you don't want to call Whitner a "bust" at #8, that's fine. But drafting him didn't help the Bills win football games. They used him as their first building block to rebuild an ailing franchise. And they passed on players such as Ngata, Mangold, and others who there is no debate about wrt their skills.

 

I think the message EA is sending is that if a team devotes 50% of their best resources to RBs and DBs, said team will consistently lose. Is there really any doubt about this?

 

There is no doubt that the Jauron/Levy era staffing mentality was skewed toward the defensive backfield. Let's put that aside as a given. In general, Nix has had a contrasting drafting approach that leans toward reshaping the roster into being bigger and bulkier. My difference with your assessment of the more recent Bills personnel approach is that you give too much weight to the first round draft selections without looking at the totality of the player acquisitions from the later rounds and from free agency.

 

You have allowed the Spiller and Gilmore picks to agitate you to the point that you can't see what else has happened beyond those picks. Without a doubt Spiller isn't the type of player you would have selected in that draft year. But waht you don't acknowledge is that the next two picks (Troup & Carrington) fit your go big approach. You are very aggravated about another first round DB selection with Gilmore but fail to emphasize the fact that Nix added to the infastructure of the defense with the free agent selections of Williams and Anderson.

 

Stand back and don't get clouded by the first round selections that although you disagree with you can't dispute the fact that they were certainly drafted in the range of where they were ranked. Stand back a little further and you will (reluctantly) have to agree that in a few short years Nix has remade this roster into a bigger and stronger roster----far from the light and quick built roster that you find very objectionable.

 

Nix has done what you have strenuously advocated in roster building. You may not agree with how it was done or the sequence of the rebuilding but if you are as fair-minded as I know you are (?????) then you will have to grudgingly concede that the roster is being built just the way you recommended.

[Rico]

the op is a perfect example of my 'star or suck' observation

 

some fans have only two grades for players: star or suck

 

youre either bruce smith or aaron maybin, there is no chris kelsay

 

youre either henry jones or coy wire, there is no donte whitner

 

youre either nate odomes or chris williams, there is no thomas smith

 

youre either thurman thomas or shaud williams, there is no antowain smith

 

youre either jim kelly or gary marangi, there is no ryan fitzpatrick

 

when you do that crap youre just invalidating every argument you make about quality of players. every pick cant be a hofer, youve got to have average guys all over your roster. an average nfl starter is still a pretty damn impressive achievement and provides value. you have to evaluate their draft position AND their cap hit AND their production to even begin to determine value to the organization, or the efficacy of management. if you dont do that youre just exposing yourself as wasting everybodys time. but that wont stop you, will it

I think the vast majority realize that not every position can be filled by a star player.., but if a player is going to be a starter (especially for many years), he should at the the very least be competent. I don't see anyone being down on say Kirk Morrison, at least not yet...everyone is willing to give him a chance. Lil Donte and Kelsay were/are less than competent for many years, and the fanbase responded accordingly.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

What difference does it make if the team is losing? If you don't want to call Whitner a "bust" at #8, that's fine. But drafting him didn't help the Bills win football games. They used him as their first building block to rebuild an ailing franchise. And they passed on players such as Ngata, Mangold, and others who there is no debate about wrt their skills.

 

I think the message EA is sending is that if a team devotes 50% of their best resources to RBs and DBs, said team will consistently lose. Is there really any doubt about this?

 

Well, I could be mistaken, but I think the losing may have had something to do with overall poor talent recognition and acquisition and possibly poor coaching/player development.

 

If Aaron Maybin, Chris Ellis, Paul Pozluzny, John McCargo, James Hardy, and Trent Edwards had achieved the on-field productivity or at least solid competence one expects from draft picks in the 1st 3 rounds, would we have fielded a better team despite drafting RBs and DBs?

 

Then there's the question of what rBs or DBs one chooses to draft. If Byrd, McKelvin, Whitner, and Youboty had achieved the on-field productivity or at least solid competence one expects from DBs in the 1st 3 rounds, would we have fielded a better team by drafting them, even though they are DBs? If Marshawn had been as Beastly as advertised?

 

I have the greatest respect for BfNYC's thoughtful post-game analysis, and I think the focus on "drafting too many RBs and DBs" as a root cause of the Bills ailments is perhaps somewhat misplaced.

 

I think the vast majority realize that not every position can be filled by a star player.., but if a player is going to be a starter (especially for many years), he should at the the very least be competent. I don't see anyone being down on say Kirk Morrison, at least not yet...everyone is willing to give him a chance. Lil Donte and Kelsay were/are less than competent for many years, and the fanbase responded accordingly.

 

Actually, I have heard quite a lot of negativity about our LBs as being "not NFL quality" this year, which is kinda puzzling to me as Barnett was a Beast last year, Morrison is a respectable NFL player, and Sheppard, while a rookie and prone to rookie mistakes, looked pretty promising. We also look to have drafted some value players at LB. But that's a nit.

 

What I really want to know is: so many fans are down underground on Chris Kelsay. Yet the coaches seem to like him and the FO rewards him with a nice contract.

 

What's with that? Does he have nekkid pictures of RW's man-parts? The gouge on Nix's secret fetish involving cheese grits and a Whizzinator? Or do the coaches and FO rightly see talents and contributions from Kelsay invisible to Joe Average Fan?

Edited May 27, 2012 by Hopeful

[Orton's Arm]

First, I'd like to thank everyone in this thread who made an effort to post something intelligent/constructive. (Especially Bill from NYC.) I'd also like to address some of the points which have been raised.

 

Claim: players like Whitner, Maybin, Antowain Smith, etc. were not busts.

 

Response: if you pick a SS 8th overall, the expectation should be that he'll be a better football player than George Wilson. If you want to say that Whitner contributed more to the team than, for example, John McCargo, then fine. He did. But if the Bills had drafted no one at eighth overall in 2006, and had used George Wilson as their starting SS, they would have lost very little except for depth at SS.

 

Aaron Maybin contributed nothing to the Bills. For the Jets, he's a blitzing SS who can't cover. While he'll get the occasional sack, he is clearly not what one would expect from a first or second round pick.

 

Antowain Smith and the Bills parted ways after his fourth year in the league. He was not a particularly sought-after free agent. The Patriots picked him up, mostly because they had few other options at RB. He was okay for them, but nothing more than okay. The Patriots released him after three years.

 

Marshawn Lynch was traded away for a fourth and sixth rounder after a few years in the league. That should have been the time when his market value was at its peak: he'd been in the league long enough to show what he could do, but not so long that there was much mileage on him. The 12th overall pick is worth 1200 points; whereas a third round pick (allegedly what the Saints were offering for Lynch) is typically worth about 200 points or less. The selection of Lynch resulted in the destruction of 5/6 of the value of that 12th overall pick. For some, 6/6 of that value would have had to have been destroyed for him to fall into the bust category. I acknowledge that some are using the word "bust" in a narrower sense than me, and I don't see much to be gained by arguing about the definition of that word.

 

Claim: players like Winfield, Burris, etc. were success stories because they were good football players. It's not their fault they went first-contract-and-out.

 

Response: I never said that first-contract-and-out was the players' fault. (It wasn't.) But if you use a first round pick on a player at any position, only to let him go first-contract-and-out, it's not a success story. A player like Antoine Winfield could have been a great success story for the Bills, had he been retained for the entirety of his career. Instead, he's a great success story for the Minnesota Vikings. They received most of his career, and didn't have to use any draft picks at all.

 

Claim: it's a viable strategy to use first round picks on CBs, only to let them go first-contract-and-out. This is because one can often find good CBs in the first round, and because free agent CBs are overpriced.

 

Response: A Super Bowl winning team needs a good core of players. Guys who play at or near an elite level, and who will remain with your team for a long period of time. While some of this core can come from free agency, and some from rounds 2 - 7, the primary source of core players will typically be the first round. A team which uses many of its first round picks on short duration positions (RBs and first-contract-and-out DBs) will, ceteris paribus, have a weaker core than a team which uses all its first round picks on its effort to build its core.

 

If a team is a player or two away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender, it might be justified in using first round picks on short duration positions. If the Patriots, for example, felt that a first-contract-and-out CB might give them that last piece they need to get Brady another Super Bowl ring, a first-contract-and-out CB might be logical for them. It is illogical for a rebuilding team to neglect its core in order to acquire short-career RBs or first-contract-and-out DBs.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I don't worship the man, but I do admire him for what he accomplished during his time with the Buffalo Bills.

 

Marv's claim to fame was that he was a special teams coach for George Allen's Rams and Redskins, Marv was never an OC or DC afaik. I can recall the Bills hiring him in 86 after they fired Bullough mid season. I immediately read everything I could on the guy and saw that he tried to run the wing -T while as HC in KC I'm thinking oh. no! They went from Kay Stephenson / Hank Bullough with Jim Ringo as OC to another tool for HC. But then I read that Marv coached the Chiefs for 5 season and they got better every year until the strike year. Then I also read that Levy won 2 grey cups with the Alouettes. He was also the head coach of the USFL Chicago Blitz for a season.

 

Marv was a great head coach as he hired some really good assistant coaches, and let them do their jobs without interfering. Marv was a supreme motivator, and over the course of his career with the Buffalo Bills had some amazing sayings that are now known as "Marvisms" He used to take a quote from the ballad of Sir Andrew Barton said it to his players.

"Fight on, my men," says Sir Andrew Barton,

 

"I am hurt, but I am not slain;

 

I'll lay me down and bleed a while,

 

And then I'll rise and fight again.

 

 

At the start of a game Marv would say.... "Where else would you rather be, then right here, right now!"

 

"Ability without character will lose. The Buffalo Bills are going to be a team of high character."

 

 

A reporter once asked Marv, At one time you hid your age, now you seem to celebrate it. What happened?

 

I came out of the closet on it, I guess. Way back when I was hired in 1986, I was 61 years of age, and it sounded too old so I lied and said I was 58. Finally I cleared that up. Maybe as I matured I came to realize it wasn't a factor. It's what you can do that counts.

 

 

"Norm Pollom (the former Bills chief college scout) is a good personnel man and a good friend of mine. He said, "If we take this guy, he's going to go to the Pro Bowl.' I said, Well, let's take somebody who's going to take us to the Super Bowl. And we picked Shane Conlan."

"I'm old enough to know my limitations and I'm young enough to exceed them."

 

"If you don't change with the times, the times are going to change you."

 

"If you listen to the fans, you will end up being one."

 

"They say two things happen when you get older. One is you begin to forget things . . . and I can't remember what the other one is right now."

 

"don't be dumb, don't be dirty"

 

"Great football coaches have the vision to see, the faith to believe, the courage to do... and 25 great players."

"Security comes from earning it--not seeking it."

"Systems don't win, players do."

"Adversity is an opportunity for heroism."

"The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender."

"What it takes to win is simple, it's not easy."

"Plan your work and work your plan."

"If you have everything prepared, the rest will take care of itself."

"What you do should speak so loudly that no one will hear what you say."

"Expect rejection, but expect even more strongly to overcome it."

"There will be many failures sprinkled among the successes you enjoy."

"A failure becomes just one time at bat if you refuse to let it defeat you."

 

No other head coach has done more for the Buffalo Bills then what Marv levy has done in his 11 year career with the Bills, nobody else is even close.JMO Probably why RW asked an 81 year old Marv Levy to be his GM in 2006

 

 

I'm paraphrasing here but I love when he said in an interview "I think to win in the NFL you have to be able to run and stop the run"

 

MIke Williams. Now there is a bust

[wnyBacker]

It's easy to call someone like Ryan leaf a bust....but calling someone such as marshawn a bust At this point in their career a bust is nothing more than a opinion....wait a few years before declaring someone a bust.

[thewildrabbit]

First, I'd like to thank everyone in this thread who made an effort to post something intelligent/constructive. (Especially Bill from NYC.) I'd also like to address some of the points which have been raised.

 

Claim: players like Whitner, Maybin, Antowain Smith, etc. were not busts.

 

Response: if you pick a SS 8th overall, the expectation should be that he'll be a better football player than George Wilson. If you want to say that Whitner contributed more to the team than, for example, John McCargo, then fine. He did. But if the Bills had drafted no one at eighth overall in 2006, and had used George Wilson as their starting SS, they would have lost very little except for depth at SS.

 

Aaron Maybin contributed nothing to the Bills. For the Jets, he's a blitzing SS who can't cover. While he'll get the occasional sack, he is clearly not what one would expect from a first or second round pick.

 

Antowain Smith and the Bills parted ways after his fourth year in the league. He was not a particularly sought-after free agent. The Patriots picked him up, mostly because they had few other options at RB. He was okay for them, but nothing more than okay. The Patriots released him after three years.

 

Marshawn Lynch was traded away for a fourth and sixth rounder after a few years in the league. That should have been the time when his market value was at its peak: he'd been in the league long enough to show what he could do, but not so long that there was much mileage on him. The 12th overall pick is worth 1200 points; whereas a third round pick (allegedly what the Saints were offering for Lynch) is typically worth about 200 points or less. The selection of Lynch resulted in the destruction of 5/6 of the value of that 12th overall pick. For some, 6/6 of that value would have had to have been destroyed for him to fall into the bust category. I acknowledge that some are using the word "bust" in a narrower sense than me, and I don't see much to be gained by arguing about the definition of that word.

 

Claim: players like Winfield, Burris, etc. were success stories because they were good football players. It's not their fault they went first-contract-and-out.

 

Response: I never said that first-contract-and-out was the players' fault. (It wasn't.) But if you use a first round pick on a player at any position, only to let him go first-contract-and-out, it's not a success story. A player like Antoine Winfield could have been a great success story for the Bills, had he been retained for the entirety of his career. Instead, he's a great success story for the Minnesota Vikings. They received most of his career, and didn't have to use any draft picks at all.

 

Claim: it's a viable strategy to use first round picks on CBs, only to let them go first-contract-and-out. This is because one can often find good CBs in the first round, and because free agent CBs are overpriced.

 

Response: A Super Bowl winning team needs a good core of players. Guys who play at or near an elite level, and who will remain with your team for a long period of time. While some of this core can come from free agency, and some from rounds 2 - 7, the primary source of core players will typically be the first round. A team which uses many of its first round picks on short duration positions (RBs and first-contract-and-out DBs) will, ceteris paribus, have a weaker core than a team which uses all its first round picks on its effort to build its core.

 

If a team is a player or two away from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender, it might be justified in using first round picks on short duration positions. If the Patriots, for example, felt that a first-contract-and-out CB might give them that last piece they need to get Brady another Super Bowl ring, a first-contract-and-out CB might be logical for them. It is illogical for a rebuilding team to neglect its core in order to acquire short-career RBs or first-contract-and-out DBs.

NFN, but you can argue about busts till the cows come home and all it does is kill any credibility you have when you state a player like Donte Whitner is a bust.

 

Understand that the Buffalo Bills wanted to resign the guy, and he took less money when he went to the niners! He chose to leave the Bills, otherwise he would still be the starting safety for the Buffalo Bills! Can you blame the man, he left a 4-12 team to go to a 13-3 team. Whitner is a 6 year starter with 84 game starts over those 6 years, and was constantly making the tackles that were missed by the Bills players in front of him.

 

Like I stated in my earlier post in this thread...." If anything the Bills have proven they don't know how to get production out of many many players. Jaberi Greer with a NO Saints SB ring on his finger ring any bells?"

 

"Donte Whitner because the Bills drafted him with a #1 pick when the rest of the NFL world had him graded as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Was that his fault he was drafted so high and coached so badly in Buffalo? Like I said, Donte just started on a 13-3 team that lost in the playoffs to the team that won the SB."

 

Whitner made a hit against the Saints last year in the playoffs, caused a fumble and knocked out their starting RB for the rest of the game.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEzJM1nWr38

 

 

I consider an actual "bust" someone like John McCargo who was a #1 pick by the Buffalo Bills. McCargo was another player like Whitner graded as a 2nd / 3rd round pick by the rest of the world that the Bills "brain farting" scouting dept thought should be drafted in the first round. So the Bills actually traded up to select him 26th overall in the 2006 draft. In college McCargo played with Mario Williams at NC state and the prevailing thought at OBD was that the reason Super Mario was so good was because of his teammate at DT in McCargo. While the rest of the world with normal brains though it was the other way around. In his 5 year career with the Bills McCargo started ONE game! Now that's a bust!

[K-9]

Understand that the Buffalo Bills wanted to resign the guy, and he took less money when he went to the niners! He chose to leave the Bills, otherwise he would still be the starting safety for the Buffalo Bills!

 

Thanks for pointing this out. Some around here make it sound like the Bills deliberately let a player go one and done when it takes two. EVERY one and done DB the Bills have lost over the years has gone to a team offering more money and/or a better winning opportunity.

 

Few, if ANY were worth the price they signed for elsewhere. We can say Winfield for sure but he didn't want to stay in Buffalo anyway. People will bring up Greer, but while decent, he isn't anything special. And there is no better example than Clements when it comes not matching other offers.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[yungmack]

 

 

If Spiller and Gilmore turn into success stories, they will do two things. 1) Strengthen the team at RB and DB, respectively. 2) Discourage the team from using first round picks on RBs and DBs, thereby freeing those picks up for use elsewhere.

An overall good post but the heart of it is right there. An ongoing problem for the Bills for the last 20 years is an inability (because of management or because of the player) to keep top players at key positions over an extended period of time. Every time a player like Winfield leaves, you generally wind up expending a new draft pick on that position. And that means one or more fewer picks for all other positions.

 

One last thing: for those of you who are down on the concept of drafting DBs high in the draft, all I can say is this ain't your daddy's NFL anymore. With the emphasis on passing and on big receivers -- and the use of TEs virtually like WRs -- CBs are among the most coveted players in the draft. And in Free Agency, they are commanding more and more money.

[Bill from NYC]

One last thing: for those of you who are down on the concept of drafting DBs high in the draft, all I can say is this ain't your daddy's NFL anymore. With the emphasis on passing and on big receivers -- and the use of TEs virtually like WRs -- CBs are among the most coveted players in the draft. And in Free Agency, they are commanding more and more money.

 

The above is true, but also worth a look imro.

 

The jets and eagles were 2 recent teams who spent a boatload of money on the secondary. As we know, this didn't work. Revis will take up at least 10% of the jets salary cap, and he wants another raise! Now, is Revis the best corner in the game? I think he is. But they had to play with Sanchez's contract (and give him a raise/extension) just to stay under the cap, and imo Sanchez really isn't so good. Additionally, with the rule changes, teams are lining up 5 wide sets. In this scenario, your "shutdown" corner is covering 1 of 5 receivers, unlike the "old days." Not only that, in a zone many times corners will be giving up their receivers at a designated place. In that sense, it might now actually make sense to let a star studded corner walk in these new times.

I liked the Brooks selection, and will be interested to see how Menzie plays on the Chiefs. We now employ a #10, #11, and the 2nd pick of round 2 in our secondary. I fail to see why we must devote so much to the secondary, but this of course doesn't make me correct.