Post-Polian failure, and why Nix may be different

[Bill from NYC]

There is no doubt that the Jauron/Levy era staffing mentality was skewed toward the defensive backfield. Let's put that aside as a given. In general, Nix has had a contrasting drafting approach that leans toward reshaping the roster into being bigger and bulkier. My difference with your assessment of the more recent Bills personnel approach is that you give too much weight to the first round draft selections without looking at the totality of the player acquisitions from the later rounds and from free agency.

 

You have allowed the Spiller and Gilmore picks to agitate you to the point that you can't see what else has happened beyond those picks. Without a doubt Spiller isn't the type of player you would have selected in that draft year. But waht you don't acknowledge is that the next two picks (Troup & Carrington) fit your go big approach. You are very aggravated about another first round DB selection with Gilmore but fail to emphasize the fact that Nix added to the infastructure of the defense with the free agent selections of Williams and Anderson.

 

Stand back and don't get clouded by the first round selections that although you disagree with you can't dispute the fact that they were certainly drafted in the range of where they were ranked. Stand back a little further and you will (reluctantly) have to agree that in a few short years Nix has remade this roster into a bigger and stronger roster----far from the light and quick built roster that you find very objectionable.

 

Nix has done what you have strenuously advocated in roster building. You may not agree with how it was done or the sequence of the rebuilding but if you are as fair-minded as I know you are (?????) then you will have to grudgingly concede that the roster is being built just the way you recommended.

 

John, I readily acknowledge that Gailey/Nix are clearly superior to Jauron/Levy. It isn't close. And in another post, I did give them more room in terms of drafting Gilmore, because they did shore up the foundation. I give them even more room because the Dallas trade threw a monkey wrench into this draft. I am still amazed that they moved down that far for so little, and this made trading down seem WAY less likely.

 

But in all, you are almost correct. I hated the Spiller selection. But Gilmore was semi-excuseable because of the solid UFA additions. And, they did shore up the foundation to a degree. The future has question marks, but it IS less cloudy imo. A player to watch is Hairston. I love the fact that he saw action last season. He looks very strong, and if he develops balance/footing, Glenn will have to play well to start. What happens with those 2 (and of course Fitz) will dictate our future needs imo. Then again, McKelvin might be leaving after the season. We might have to jump on another first round corner under any conditions.

[Turbosrrgood]

This could be summed up in a much easier way...MODRAK.

 

The Bills did ok, but not great before Modrak...and completely tanked during his entire tenure. Modrak failed on the vast majority of draft picks and FA's signed under his watch. The signing of guys like Mularkey and Jauron didn't help things...but those inferior coaches had absolutely no chance with such inferior players...

 

Worst "talent" evaluator I have ever seen, yet a "friend" of Ralphs...

Edited May 30, 2012 by Turbosrrgood

[JohnC]

John, I readily acknowledge that Gailey/Nix are clearly superior to Jauron/Levy. It isn't close. And in another post, I did give them more room in terms of drafting Gilmore, because they did shore up the foundation. I give them even more room because the Dallas trade threw a monkey wrench into this draft. I am still amazed that they moved down that far for so little, and this made trading down seem WAY less likely.

 

But in all, you are almost correct. I hated the Spiller selection. But Gilmore was semi-excuseable because of the solid UFA additions. And, they did shore up the foundation to a degree. The future has question marks, but it IS less cloudy imo. A player to watch is Hairston. I love the fact that he saw action last season. He looks very strong, and if he develops balance/footing, Glenn will have to play well to start. What happens with those 2 (and of course Fitz) will dictate our future needs imo. Then again, McKelvin might be leaving after the season. We might have to jump on another first round corner under any conditions.

 

I'm going to surprise you and say something that you might find very weird, at least coming from me: the turning point for this incapacitated franchise came directly from the owner. He selected Nix. It was a selection that originally resulted in a chorus of snickers. Most people, including me, thought the owner was imprisoned by his own insularity and stuck in the past. As with Levy he again selected an old fogy in Nix instead of a younger GM prospect who could inject this very tired franchise with energy.

 

Then again the iron horse owner did something that disappointed a lot of people but made me realize at the time that he had a clue. The owner clearly stated that after announcing the selection of Nix the turnaround was going to take time and require patience from the frustrated fanbase. What he was really saying was that he wasn't looking for an expedient and cosmetic change that rarely works---he wanted the orgaanization to do things the right way. Nix has convinced the owner that the best method of success in the NFL is very basic: draft well and retain (for the most part) the players you developed.

 

Changing direction: I'm going against the grain when I say that McKelvin is still a very raw player with exceptional tools who stil can be salvageable. Although he still is deficient in reacting to the ball what you will almost always notice when the ball is thrown to his man is that he is usually near the targeted player. Another liability is that he is prone to reacting to the first move and gets suckered by the move. Still he has the ability to catch up. Is he the type of player who tantalizes you with his impressive physical abilities but fails you with his lack of football instincts and intelligence? Maybe. I'm still intrigued by him. With an improved pass rush he might surprise a lot of people.

Edited May 30, 2012 by JohnC

[JohnC]

This could be summed up in a much easier way MODRAK.

 

The Bills did ok, but not great before Modrak...and completely tanked during his entire tenure. Modrak failed on the vast majority of draft picks and FA's signed under his watch. The signing of guys like Mularkey and Jauron didn't help things...but those inferior coaches had absolutely no chance with such inferior players...

 

Worst "talent" evaluator I have ever seen, yet a "friend" of Ralphs...

 

During Modrak's tenure he wasn't the only problem with the scouting department. Both the pro and college scouting departments simply reeked with incompetence. John Guy, the pro scout, matched Modrak in ineptitude. The football operation in general was hollow. In a system designed for player movement the pro scouts are almost as critical as the college scouts. It's not simply a question of evaluating talent but more importantly determining value. Giving Dockery and Langston Walker, both average talents, premium contracts was foolish. It was also crippling because too much cap money was invested in below average talents that handcuffed the organization in adding and keeping talent.

 

Under Nix both the pro and college scouting department have been revamped. It shouldn't be surprising that the quality of the drafts and the free agent pickups have from a quality standpoint dramatically gone up .

Edited May 30, 2012 by JohnC

[richNjoisy]

 

Changing direction: I'm going against the grain when I say that McKelvin is still a very raw player with exceptional tools who stil can be salvageable. Although he still is deficient in reacting to the ball what you will almost always notice when the ball is thrown to his man is that he is usually near the targeted player. Another liability is that he is prone to reacting to the first move and gets suckered by the move. Still he has the ability to catch up. Is he the type of player who tantalizes you with his impressive physical abilities but fails you with his lack of football instincts and intelligence? Maybe. I'm still intrigued by him. With an improved pass rush he might surprise a lot of people.

 

I have also noticed this about McKelvin - that he often seems to be in the right position to knock down the ball but isn't looking back so the receiver catches the ball over/around him. A Pass Rush will certainly help him but is it a question of technique or instinct that makes him a liability out there? If the former, then good coaching can salvage him but if the latter.....not much you can do if he is one-on-one.

[Turbosrrgood]

I have also noticed this about McKelvin - that he often seems to be in the right position to knock down the ball but isn't looking back so the receiver catches the ball over/around him. A Pass Rush will certainly help him but is it a question of technique or instinct that makes him a liability out there? If the former, then good coaching can salvage him but if the latter.....not much you can do if he is one-on-one.

 

Yeah, those traits of McKelvin are clear. And let's face it, he is not the smartest guy, hell he can barely talk. So I don't have much confidence that he can all of the sudden learn the "instincts" needed to play the ball.

 

I will say this though, he will likely be battling for a nickle spot on this team. I think he could actually be pretty successful there. When guys are in front of him or near the line of scrimage he has no problem playing the ball. He mainly gets burned on deep passes, when he focuses on his man and completely ignores the ball. Playing nickle could really help him. A guy like Brooks might be even more suited to playing nickle though, so even that he will have to fight for.

 

One area where McKelvin is the absolute man is returning kicks, he should have been doing it all last year. He is truly a top talent at that task IMO.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Turbosrrgood

[Orton's Arm]

NFN, but you can argue about busts till the cows come home and all it does is kill any credibility you have when you state a player like Donte Whitner is a bust.

 

Understand that the Buffalo Bills wanted to resign the guy, and he took less money when he went to the niners! He chose to leave the Bills, otherwise he would still be the starting safety for the Buffalo Bills! Can you blame the man, he left a 4-12 team to go to a 13-3 team. Whitner is a 6 year starter with 84 game starts over those 6 years, and was constantly making the tackles that were missed by the Bills players in front of him.

 

Like I stated in my earlier post in this thread...." If anything the Bills have proven they don't know how to get production out of many many players. Jaberi Greer with a NO Saints SB ring on his finger ring any bells?"

 

"Donte Whitner because the Bills drafted him with a #1 pick when the rest of the NFL world had him graded as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Was that his fault he was drafted so high and coached so badly in Buffalo? Like I said, Donte just started on a 13-3 team that lost in the playoffs to the team that won the SB."

 

Whitner made a hit against the Saints last year in the playoffs, caused a fumble and knocked out their starting RB for the rest of the game.

 

 

youtube.com/watch?v=UEzJM1nWr38

 

 

I consider an actual "bust" someone like John McCargo who was a #1 pick by the Buffalo Bills. McCargo was another player like Whitner graded as a 2nd / 3rd round pick by the rest of the world that the Bills "brain farting" scouting dept thought should be drafted in the first round. So the Bills actually traded up to select him 26th overall in the 2006 draft. In college McCargo played with Mario Williams at NC state and the prevailing thought at OBD was that the reason Super Mario was so good was because of his teammate at DT in McCargo. While the rest of the world with normal brains though it was the other way around. In his 5 year career with the Bills McCargo started ONE game! Now that's a bust!

To further address the Donte Whitner issue: it's true the Bills made him a solid offer, which Whitner rejected. But that was before the draft, and before they'd taken Searcy. After that draft, the Bills' offer was off the table, which meant Whitner had to go with the best offer he could find from some other team instead. The highest bidder for Whitner's services offered him the kind of deal you'd expect a quality backup/lower tier starter to receive. In the collective judgment of NFL GMs, Whitner was not worth more than that. Had he been, someone would have offered him more.

 

Fans tend to over-value dramatic things like big hits, and undervalue more subtle things like good coverage. Whitner is good at delivering dramatic hits, as you've pointed out. He's generally good in run support. But his ability to cover TEs has been questionable at best, which is why he wasn't offered big money on the free agent market. Had Whitner been a third or fourth round pick, it would have been perfectly acceptable for him to have turned into a quality backup/lower tier starter. But for the eighth overall pick to turn into that represents the destruction of the vast majority of the value that pick represented. Whitner still had some value, I'll grant, and the Bills might have been able to trade him away for a fourth round pick a few years into his career. As a player, Whitner is not a failure, and it's not his personal fault he was drafted several rounds before he should have been.

 

I'm using the word "bust" to refer to the use of a top-10 or top-15 pick on a player who shouldn't have been drafted until the third or fourth round. The reason for my word usage is that if you take a guy 12th overall, such as Lynch, or a guy 8th overall, such as Whitner, and if you get a player who's worth no more than a third or fourth rounder, you've lost the vast majority of the value of the pick. Dictionary.com defines a bust as "a failure." If you spent $100 on something, and received an item worth $15, you'd probably consider that transaction a failure. As a player Whitner is not a failure. But as the 8th overall pick, he was.

[Bill from NYC]

I'm using the word "bust" to refer to the use of a top-10 or top-15 pick on a player who shouldn't have been drafted until the third or fourth round. The reason for my word usage is that if you take a guy 12th overall, such as Lynch, or a guy 8th overall, such as Whitner, and if you get a player who's worth no more than a third or fourth rounder, you've lost the vast majority of the value of the pick. Dictionary.com defines a bust as "a failure." If you spent $100 on something, and received an item worth $15, you'd probably consider that transaction a failure. As a player Whitner is not a failure. But as the 8th overall pick, he was.

 

Taking it a step further, there might (in hindsight of course) be 20 players selected after Whitner in the first 2 rounds that would have been better for the Bills. That draft was a great one.

[thewildrabbit]

To further address the Donte Whitner issue: it's true the Bills made him a solid offer, which Whitner rejected. But that was before the draft, and before they'd taken Searcy. After that draft, the Bills' offer was off the table, which meant Whitner had to go with the best offer he could find from some other team instead. The highest bidder for Whitner's services offered him the kind of deal you'd expect a quality backup/lower tier starter to receive. In the collective judgment of NFL GMs, Whitner was not worth more than that. Had he been, someone would have offered him more.

 

Fans tend to over-value dramatic things like big hits, and undervalue more subtle things like good coverage. Whitner is good at delivering dramatic hits, as you've pointed out. He's generally good in run support. But his ability to cover TEs has been questionable at best, which is why he wasn't offered big money on the free agent market. Had Whitner been a third or fourth round pick, it would have been perfectly acceptable for him to have turned into a quality backup/lower tier starter. But for the eighth overall pick to turn into that represents the destruction of the vast majority of the value that pick represented. Whitner still had some value, I'll grant, and the Bills might have been able to trade him away for a fourth round pick a few years into his career. As a player, Whitner is not a failure, and it's not his personal fault he was drafted several rounds before he should have been.

 

I'm using the word "bust" to refer to the use of a top-10 or top-15 pick on a player who shouldn't have been drafted until the third or fourth round. The reason for my word usage is that if you take a guy 12th overall, such as Lynch, or a guy 8th overall, such as Whitner, and if you get a player who's worth no more than a third or fourth rounder, you've lost the vast majority of the value of the pick. Dictionary.com defines a bust as "a failure." If you spent $100 on something, and received an item worth $15, you'd probably consider that transaction a failure. As a player Whitner is not a failure. But as the 8th overall pick, he was.

 

And thru all this what you fail to realize is...that over the last decade the Buffalo Bills coaches have been just about as miserable as their draft selections. You can select a player in the first round and that doesn't automatically mean that player is a pro bowler on his own. The Bills have been equally inept at coaching up talent as they have been in selecting talent.

 

Perhaps in your mind a bust is someone who didn't live up to your expectations. A bust in my mind is someone who failed to perform at the NFL level in the aspect for which they were drafted. McCargo fits that. Aaron Maybin fits that while a Buffalo Bill. Doesn't it strike you as odd that players like Jaberi Greer and Jim Leonhard can be cast offs from the Buffalo Bills and become starters and stars on other teams. Maybin couldn't get a sack to save his life while in Buffalo, and yet gets 6 sacks with the Jets. IDGAF how he got those 6 sacks, its the entire reason the Bills wasted a #1 pick on him, not to mention the 11th overall in 2009.

 

Ryan Leaf vs Peyton Manning. But then you have guys like Joey Harrington and David Carr that were both QB's selected in the first round that never lived up to their NFL expectations of becoming a "franchise" QB. Shoot, they both became backups that never amounted to much. You could define them as "busts"! A player selected in the first round that has preformed well and has been the starter at his position for his entire 6 year career is not a bust, not in any sense of the word.

 

You also mention Antowain Smith as a bust which is ridiculous. The guy left the Bills and became the starting RB for the super bowl champion NE Patriots, a 1000+ yard rusher with 2 super bowl rings. Even as a BB he managed an 1124 yards rushing in 1989 with 16 GS and 14 games played. Was it his fault the Bills failed to utilize him properly in his career with the Bills? RB Sammy Morris is another player the Bills failed to get the most out of and yet he went on to play for the Dolphins, Patriots and Cowboys and have a 12 year career. When the average lifespan for an NFL player is 3 years.

 

 

BTW, Whitner left the Bills because he wanted to leave, not the other way around. I still don't consider a 6 year starter a bust, and never will. What people forget is that the Bills had just cut S Lawyer Milloy, and were desperate for a safety at that time. Plus they didn't have a 2nd round pick. If the Bills had decent talent evaluators they could have taken all pro S Roman Harper, who the Saints took in the 2nd round that year.... or kept Milloy and drafted DT Ngata who was the preferred choice by many Bills fans. In 2009 Brian Orakpo instead of Maybin

 

But, this is what you get with a perennial losing franchise, bad coaching, bad decisions,and players that don't live up to expectations on bad teams with bad schemes.

 

 

 

If a 6 year starter is someone you consider a bust. Then what do you consider a player selected with the #9 overall that has been a backup player for 2 years? What would it take for him to not be a bust? Clearly 2x 1000 yard rushing seasons won't do it because Antowain Smith did that along with getting 2 SB rings and you define him as a bust. Plus Smith was selected in the first round, 23rd overall. So then, does that make C Eric Wood a bust? Drafted in the first round, 28th overall and played 10 games in 09, 14 games in 2010, 9 games in 2011. only 33 out of 48 games.

[Bill from NYC]

If a 6 year starter is someone you consider a bust. Then what do you consider a player selected with the #9 overall that has been a backup player for 2 years? What would it take for him to not be a bust? Clearly 2x 1000 yard rushing seasons won't do it because Antowain Smith did that along with getting 2 SB rings and you define him as a bust. Plus Smith was selected in the first round, 23rd overall. So then, does that make C Eric Wood a bust? Drafted in the first round, 28th overall and played 10 games in 09, 14 games in 2010, 9 games in 2011. only 33 out of 48 games.

 

FTB, no offense, but you seem to be hung up on the word, "bust." And I'm not sure why. Is it some sort of defense of Levy and or Jauron?

Although football is the consumate team game, individual players do need to step up and win games for the team. Can you think of a time where Donte Whitner did this for the Bills? Dareus did. He took over the Redskin game last year and kicked everybodys ass.

EA really is right. The Bills first round picks have not produced enough to make an impact/win football games for this team. Do you really not see this? You simply cannot plug in defensive backs and rbs behind poor lines and expect to win, let alone neglect the importance of the qb position.

 

Things look better now, and this directly coincides with the departure of Levy and Jauron.

[BuffaloBill]

It's also filled with confusion.

 

 

And convoluted.

 

 

And collusion.

 

Colosil coincidence.

[thewildrabbit]

John, I readily acknowledge that Gailey/Nix are clearly superior to Jauron/Levy. It isn't close. And in another post, I did give them more room in terms of drafting Gilmore, because they did shore up the foundation. I give them even more room because the Dallas trade threw a monkey wrench into this draft. I am still amazed that they moved down that far for so little, and this made trading down seem WAY less likely.

 

But in all, you are almost correct. I hated the Spiller selection. But Gilmore was semi-excuseable because of the solid UFA additions. And, they did shore up the foundation to a degree. The future has question marks, but it IS less cloudy imo. A player to watch is Hairston. I love the fact that he saw action last season. He looks very strong, and if he develops balance/footing, Glenn will have to play well to start. What happens with those 2 (and of course Fitz) will dictate our future needs imo. Then again, McKelvin might be leaving after the season. We might have to jump on another first round corner under any conditions.

I'm still waiting to see that bolded part on the field in terms of wins.

 

There is no question that in 2012 the Bills FO finally made some good moves in the draft and free agency. But Gailey / Nix had 2 previous years to rebuild the team and made some pretty bad moves from what I see.

 

 

2010- all the team needed was a pass rusher and a solid RT to do better then 4-12. Instead they neglected both positions in the draft. Then hired a tool of a DC in George Edwards to run the defense. He revamped it from a 4-3 to a 3-4 without the proper personnel to make that adjustment, and the result was the worst defense against the rush in the history of the 50 year franchise. Nix brought in one of the very worst free agent accusations Ive ever seen in RT Cornell Green. The Bills made no real effort to bolster the pass rush except bring in a guy who was dumped because of a history of injury problems. Did Nix think his coaching staff could honestly resurrect Maybin and Merriman?

 

The draft and free agency from that year have to be about as bad as any I've ever seen. That entire 2010 draft looks like a complete waste and is filled with real busts. I look at the Spiller pick and think of NYG DE Jason Pierre Paul. What a colossal waste of a first rounder that has been a back up for 2 years on a team so desperate for a pass rusher / OT. result 4-12.

 

2011 the team STILL needed a pass rusher / OT help. a proper backup center, and #2 WR, TE. The Bills had a proper backup center in Geoff Hangartner and cut him. Hangman went back to Carolina where he started at RG and played the entire season for them. The result of not having adequate depth on that O line cost them dearly in several games. Recall watching that Miami game with Levite at center, they couldn't even get a decent snap off.... It was shameful. DC George Edwards was retained for 2011 and nothing much changed except for the defense finally getting some turnovers. result 6-10

 

When you field a team that is 4-12 to 6-10 it generally means that any decent player drafted or acquired in free agency should step right in and be an upgrade and make an instant impact . The only player that stepped right in and started was Marcell Darius , the #3 overall

 

 

While I couldn't stand Dick Jauron and was very vocal about it in this forum, and in other forums. That multi year record of 7-9 is still better then anything Nix / Gailey have yet to accomplish... I still lack faith in Chan Gaileys offense after watching what happened the 2nd half of last year. Once teams shut down that short passing game the Bills had nothing else and kept trying to force that short game to work.

 

 

The Bills are still in need a #2 WR, a better option at TE, more depth on the O line. Should Graham become the #2 WR and deep threat that the Bills a lacking at this point. The lack of quality talent at RT & RG might show itself this season when Fitz needs 5 seconds to throw that deep out. Of course the QB will get all the blame and Nix ? Gailey will retain their jobs a few more years while they draft a "franchise" QB.

 

I define teams / years in terms of wins...not the likability of coaches -GM

[thewildrabbit]

FTB, no offense, but you seem to be hung up on the word, "bust." And I'm not sure why. Is it some sort of defense of Levy and or Jauron?

Although football is the consumate team game, individual players do need to step up and win games for the team. Can you think of a time where Donte Whitner did this for the Bills? Dareus did. He took over the Redskin game last year and kicked everybodys ass.

EA really is right. The Bills first round picks have not produced enough to make an impact/win football games for this team. Do you really not see this? You simply cannot plug in defensive backs and rbs behind poor lines and expect to win, let alone neglect the importance of the qb position.

 

Things look better now, and this directly coincides with the departure of Levy and Jauron.

The word Bust has nothing to do with Levy and Jauron whatsoever! It has to do with someone proclaiming a 6 year starter a bust because that player never lived up to his expectations...or yours! Do you understand how many players that have been drafted in the first round that never went on to be anything more then just journeymen at their respective positions?

 

Do you both not understand the concept of playing on a bad team, with bad coaching and in a horribly bad scheme. I don't blame the player or players for the losing, and not making plays. I blame the coaches!!! I have given you my definition of what a bust is, and it will never be a 6 year starter, no matter what team he played on. Or a 2x or 3x 1000 yard rusher.

 

 

I love Marcell Darius, but it was almost literally impossible for Nix to screw up that #3 overall pick because of the 5 blue chippers in that draft.

 

In regards to that Redskin game. yea, it was one of his best so far with 2.5 sacks, and 4 tackles. But also remember that John Beck stated that game, most of that starting Redskin O line was out due to injuries. The Skins didn't have their starting RB in Hightower and starting WR in Moss. The Bills defense dominated that game by limiting the Redskins to 178 yards of offense and 10 first downs. The Bills had 9 sacks that day. Jairus Byrd also had a sack and an INT. The Washington offense was in complete shambles that day and the Bills D took advantage of it. Although one game out of 16 doesn't make a season, or define it.

 

Lets not forget that Nix / Gailey went 4-12 to get Darius

 

No offense Bill but you seem to be fixated on Levy / Jauron, not me. Why is it tho that those two managed to win more games? 7-9 for 3 years in a row.

 

Why did it take 3 years and 100 million dollars to finally land a pass rusher? Why did it take 3 years to finally address the O line, and its still not completely rebuilt. Why does the team trade away its #2 WR and then not replace him?

[JohnC]

I'm still waiting to see that bolded part on the field in terms of wins.

 

There is no question that in 2012 the Bills FO finally made some good moves in the draft and free agency. But Gailey / Nix had 2 previous years to rebuild the team and made some pretty bad moves from what I see.

 

 

2010- all the team needed was a pass rusher and a solid RT to do better then 4-12. Instead they neglected both positions in the draft. Then hired a tool of a DC in George Edwards to run the defense. He revamped it from a 4-3 to a 3-4 without the proper personnel to make that adjustment, and the result was the worst defense against the rush in the history of the 50 year franchise. Nix brought in one of the very worst free agent accusations Ive ever seen in RT Cornell Green. The Bills made no real effort to bolster the pass rush except bring in a guy who was dumped because of a history of injury problems. Did Nix think his coaching staff could honestly resurrect Maybin and Merriman?

 

The draft and free agency from that year have to be about as bad as any I've ever seen. That entire 2010 draft looks like a complete waste and is filled with real busts. I look at the Spiller pick and think of NYG DE Jason Pierre Paul. What a colossal waste of a first rounder that has been a back up for 2 years on a team so desperate for a pass rusher / OT. result 4-12.

 

2011 the team STILL needed a pass rusher / OT help. a proper backup center, and #2 WR, TE. The Bills had a proper backup center in Geoff Hangartner and cut him. Hangman went back to Carolina where he started at RG and played the entire season for them. The result of not having adequate depth on that O line cost them dearly in several games. Recall watching that Miami game with Levite at center, they couldn't even get a decent snap off.... It was shameful. DC George Edwards was retained for 2011 and nothing much changed except for the defense finally getting some turnovers. result 6-10

 

When you field a team that is 4-12 to 6-10 it generally means that any decent player drafted or acquired in free agency should step right in and be an upgrade and make an instant impact . The only player that stepped right in and started was Marcell Darius , the #3 overall

 

 

While I couldn't stand Dick Jauron and was very vocal about it in this forum, and in other forums. That multi year record of 7-9 is still better then anything Nix / Gailey have yet to accomplish... I still lack faith in Chan Gaileys offense after watching what happened the 2nd half of last year. Once teams shut down that short passing game the Bills had nothing else and kept trying to force that short game to work.

 

 

The Bills are still in need a #2 WR, a better option at TE, more depth on the O line. Should Graham become the #2 WR and deep threat that the Bills a lacking at this point. The lack of quality talent at RT & RG might show itself this season when Fitz needs 5 seconds to throw that deep out. Of course the QB will get all the blame and Nix ? Gailey will retain their jobs a few more years while they draft a "franchise" QB.

 

I define teams / years in terms of wins...not the likability of coaches -GM

 

You make a number of good points. Let me address the Hangartner cut. It was not a football decision. It was a Littman mandated budget cut. Paul Hamilton from WGR made the comment prior to the season that Hangartner was vulnerable to being cut because of his salary. An indication that was going to happen was that Hangartner barely got playing time in preseason because of the risk of an injury. Sure enough, prior to the regular season he got cut and was picked up by his former team, Carolina, and ended up playing well for them as a starter. I agree with you that Hangartner was a versatile linemen who would have been an asset to the team. The primary reason for which he was released reflects why the team struggled for so long i.e. player decisions based on financial rather than football considerations. Make no mistake that in a cap system salaries relative to performance are part of the calculation, but in Buffalo the balance was skewed towards the financial side.

 

I don't understand why there is such a resistance to the Spiller selection. NYC Bill is zealous in his campaign against him. What I often say to him is that he was a top ten player taken in the top ten. I'm not going to criticize the organization for following the successful script of drafting players in the range where they are ranked. Baltimore and Green Bay adhere to that approach and it has proven to be successful. The book on Spiller is not finished. He showed, at least to me, that he is capable of being an impact player on a team lacking in impact offensive players. Based on what he showed me last year I'm confident that this is going to be a breakout year for him.

 

There is no doubt that Jason Pierre Paul is a sterling player. However, he was considered a raw prospect with a lot of physical talents but still very inexperienced. He went to the Giants and played on a line that had a rotation of six high octane linemen. That certainly wouldn't have been the case if he went to Buffalo. The glittering production he had with the Giants would not have materialized in Buffalo.

 

Your criticism of the poor accumulated record of Gailey/Nix is unfair. They took over a team that was mediocre at best. The roster needed to be rebuilt from top to the bottom. They were remaking a Levy/Jauron roster that fit with the light/quick philosophy and reworked into a bigger and bulkier roster on both sides of the ball. It was going to take at least a few years to redo the roster.

 

This is the year where the higher expectations should be applied. If this team doesn't elevate its performance then Nix/Gailey should be held accountable. This is the third year of Nix's tenure where he has not only refashioned the roster but more importantly overhauled the football operation. Viewing his win/lost record for his first two years as a reflection of his work in unfair and unreasonable. This is the year where the record will be very telling.

Edited May 31, 2012 by JohnC

[Orton's Arm]

And thru all this what you fail to realize is...that over the last decade the Buffalo Bills coaches have been just about as miserable as their draft selections. You can select a player in the first round and that doesn't automatically mean that player is a pro bowler on his own. The Bills have been equally inept at coaching up talent as they have been in selecting talent.

 

Perhaps in your mind a bust is someone who didn't live up to your expectations. A bust in my mind is someone who failed to perform at the NFL level in the aspect for which they were drafted. McCargo fits that. Aaron Maybin fits that while a Buffalo Bill. Doesn't it strike you as odd that players like Jaberi Greer and Jim Leonhard can be cast offs from the Buffalo Bills and become starters and stars on other teams. Maybin couldn't get a sack to save his life while in Buffalo, and yet gets 6 sacks with the Jets. IDGAF how he got those 6 sacks, its the entire reason the Bills wasted a #1 pick on him, not to mention the 11th overall in 2009.

 

Ryan Leaf vs Peyton Manning. But then you have guys like Joey Harrington and David Carr that were both QB's selected in the first round that never lived up to their NFL expectations of becoming a "franchise" QB. Shoot, they both became backups that never amounted to much. You could define them as "busts"! A player selected in the first round that has preformed well and has been the starter at his position for his entire 6 year career is not a bust, not in any sense of the word.

 

You also mention Antowain Smith as a bust which is ridiculous. The guy left the Bills and became the starting RB for the super bowl champion NE Patriots, a 1000+ yard rusher with 2 super bowl rings. Even as a BB he managed an 1124 yards rushing in 1989 with 16 GS and 14 games played. Was it his fault the Bills failed to utilize him properly in his career with the Bills? RB Sammy Morris is another player the Bills failed to get the most out of and yet he went on to play for the Dolphins, Patriots and Cowboys and have a 12 year career. When the average lifespan for an NFL player is 3 years.

 

 

BTW, Whitner left the Bills because he wanted to leave, not the other way around. I still don't consider a 6 year starter a bust, and never will. What people forget is that the Bills had just cut S Lawyer Milloy, and were desperate for a safety at that time. Plus they didn't have a 2nd round pick. If the Bills had decent talent evaluators they could have taken all pro S Roman Harper, who the Saints took in the 2nd round that year.... or kept Milloy and drafted DT Ngata who was the preferred choice by many Bills fans. In 2009 Brian Orakpo instead of Maybin

 

But, this is what you get with a perennial losing franchise, bad coaching, bad decisions,and players that don't live up to expectations on bad teams with bad schemes.

 

 

 

If a 6 year starter is someone you consider a bust. Then what do you consider a player selected with the #9 overall that has been a backup player for 2 years? What would it take for him to not be a bust? Clearly 2x 1000 yard rushing seasons won't do it because Antowain Smith did that along with getting 2 SB rings and you define him as a bust. Plus Smith was selected in the first round, 23rd overall. So then, does that make C Eric Wood a bust? Drafted in the first round, 28th overall and played 10 games in 09, 14 games in 2010, 9 games in 2011. only 33 out of 48 games.

There are several points I'd like to address:

• You and I are using different definitions for the word "bust." That's fine--as long as we don't waste everyone else's time with a pointless, endless, and ultimately unwinnable argument about whose definition is correct.
  
• Jabari Greer didn't suddenly blossom into a solid contributor with the Saints. He was also a solid contributor and starter for the Bills. Which is why the Bills should have re-signed him. Instead, they let him leave in free agency in the prime of his career. And used a top-12 pick on his replacement.
  
• If you take a standard-issue NFL backup RB, and give him enough carries, he'll become a 1000 yard rusher. A few 1000 yard seasons should not be seen as an indication that a RB is good enough to justify even a third round pick, let alone a first round pick. A better measurement is yards per carry. However--unless a RB's name is Barry Sanders--yards per carry is dictated more by the quality of the OL's run blocking than by the RB himself. So you compare a RB's yards per carry against that of his backups, on the theory they both received the same run blocking. Antowain Smith's yards per carry wasn't that much different than his backups'. That's one of the reasons why Antowain Smith wasn't a particularly sought-after free agent after he and the Bills parted ways.
  
• The fact that Donte Whitner was a starter for a number of years doesn't mean he was a good player. It just means the Bills felt he was a better player than George Wilson. (Though there were times when Wilson took Whitner's starting spot.) The correct measurement of Whitner's worth is free agency; because that represents the collective judgement of NFL GMs. The fact he had all those starts gave them a large body of work at which to look. They determined his worth was a quality backup/lower tier starter.
  
• Fred Jackson is one of the best RBs in the league. There is no shame in Spiller being stuck behind him on the depth chart. Spiller looked good in limited playing time last season, and may be given more opportunities this season. At very least, he appears to be a significantly more athletic and talented RB than Antowain Smith had been.
  
• The Bills should not have been desperate for a safety in 2006, because 2006 was a rebuilding year! You don't reach for a safety at 8th overall when there were much better football players available at more valuable positions. Even if the Bills had gone 0-16 in 2006 due to the lack of a SS, no one would have gotten fired, because it was the honeymoon period. And the Bills would have had the first overall pick of the 2007 draft. The Whitner selection represented short term, "sacrifice tomorrow for today" thinking at a time when such thinking was completely unnecessary.

Edited May 31, 2012 by Edwards' Arm

[JohnC]

[*]The Bills should not have been desperate for a safety in 2006, because 2006 was a rebuilding year! You don't reach for a safety at 8th overall when there were much better football players available at more valuable positions. Even if the Bills had gone 0-16 in 2006 due to the lack of a SS, no one would have gotten fired, because it was the honeymoon period. And the Bills would have had the first overall pick of the 2007 draft. The Whitner selection represented short term, "sacrifice tomorrow for today" thinking at a time when such thinking was completely unnecessary.

 

You make an excellent observation that there was a lack of understanding as to what stage the franchise was in. As you noted the Bills were basically at a rebuilding stage. The owner brought in Levy to salvage the operation. But the problem was Levy was ill-equipped for a substantive GM role and the challenging rebuild task at hand. It didn't take too long before Marv realized that he was in over his head. He then quietly left after two ineffective years to be replaced by Brandon, the marketing guru. His tenure lasted one year at that position.

 

The football operation was barren in the staffing department. Levy, on more than a few occasions, stated that he envisioned his role as a facilitator and coordinator for the various departments. Who was he supposed to rely on? Modrak for college scouting? John Guy for pro scouting? ML gave a lot of personnel authority to Dick Jauron. How did that work out?

 

My primary point is that the fundamental problem with the organization stemmed from the dysfunction of the organization in how it was staffed and structured. Pointing out misfires on player selections is liking shooting fish out of a barrel. There is no challenge to that.

 

What is encouraging is that Nix has clearly upgraded the football operation by installing quality people in the various divisions. There seems to be an orderly process and a coherent approach to running the organization. No one is going to agree with all the decisions coming out of OBD. But even when one disagrees the reasoning for the decisions is logical. That sure beats the oftentimes perplexing way decisions were made before Nix arrived at the scene.

[Orton's Arm]

You make an excellent observation that there was a lack of understanding as to what stage the franchise was in. As you noted the Bills were basically at a rebuilding stage. The owner brought in Levy to salvage the operation. But the problem was Levy was ill-equipped for a substantive GM role and the challenging rebuild task at hand. It didn't take too long before Marv realized that he was in over his head. He then quietly left after two ineffective years to be replaced by Brandon, the marketing guru. His tenure lasted one year at that position.

 

The football operation was barren in the staffing department. Levy, on more than a few occasions, stated that he envisioned his role as a facilitator and coordinator for the various departments. Who was he supposed to rely on? Modrak for college scouting? John Guy for pro scouting? ML gave a lot of personnel authority to Dick Jauron. How did that work out?

 

My primary point is that the fundamental problem with the organization stemmed from the dysfunction of the organization in how it was staffed and structured. Pointing out misfires on player selections is liking shooting fish out of a barrel. There is no challenge to that.

 

What is encouraging is that Nix has clearly upgraded the football operation by installing quality people in the various divisions. There seems to be an orderly process and a coherent approach to running the organization. No one is going to agree with all the decisions coming out of OBD. But even when one disagrees the reasoning for the decisions is logical. That sure beats the oftentimes perplexing way decisions were made before Nix arrived at the scene.

Very solid post.

 

Just to add to what you've written: there's a significant chance Levy could have asserted his authority as GM for the purpose of fixing the problems you've described. Firing/replacing most of the Bills' scouting staff. Replacing John Guy. Probably replacing Modrak. He didn't do those things, perhaps for several reasons:

 

1) He might not have realized the extent to which he was surrounded by incompetents.

2) He might not have been able to identify competent replacements. (The fact he hired Jauron as head coach suggests that identifying competent people might not have been his strong point.)

3) The possibility that, even if he'd identified someone good, he might not have been able to tempt that person to come over to the Bills.

 

When Marv quit, he said something to the effect that he thought the GM would have had more of a role in player selection decisions. To me, this suggests Marv passively accepted the role (or non-role) others in the organization wanted to give the GM with respect to player selection. Marv did not actively assert his authority to select players. (Not that there's any guarantee the player selections would have been any better, had Marv been calling the shots.)

 

To make a long story short: the Bills organization of 2006 was in desperate need of leadership. Leadership which Marv failed to provide.

 

In contrast, Nix seems like he has a specific plan for the franchise. He is surrounding himself with the front office personnel, coaches, and players necessary to make the plan work. Should the organization start to drift away from that plan, Nix will assert his authority to get things back on track.

[JohnC]

Very solid post.

 

Just to add to what you've written: there's a significant chance Levy could have asserted his authority as GM for the purpose of fixing the problems you've described. Firing/replacing most of the Bills' scouting staff. Replacing John Guy. Probably replacing Modrak. He didn't do those things, perhaps for several reasons:

 

1) He might not have realized the extent to which he was surrounded by incompetents.

2) He might not have been able to identify competent replacements. (The fact he hired Jauron as head coach suggests that identifying competent people might not have been his strong point.)

3) The possibility that, even if he'd identified someone good, he might not have been able to tempt that person to come over to the Bills.

 

When Marv quit, he said something to the effect that he thought the GM would have had more of a role in player selection decisions. To me, this suggests Marv passively accepted the role (or non-role) others in the organization wanted to give the GM with respect to player selection. Marv did not actively assert his authority to select players. (Not that there's any guarantee the player selections would have been any better, had Marv been calling the shots.)

 

To make a long story short: the Bills organization of 2006 was in desperate need of leadership. Leadership which Marv failed to provide.

 

In contrast, Nix seems like he has a specific plan for the franchise. He is surrounding himself with the front office personnel, coaches, and players necessary to make the plan work. Should the organization start to drift away from that plan, Nix will assert his authority to get things back on track.

 

I don't want to be cruel but the truth of the matter was Marv Levy was simply incompetent as a GM. He really didn't want that position; he wanted to get back into coaching. The fault for miscasting a good man and putting him in a very bad position lies with the clueless owner. The misguided owner chose Levy not because he was equipped to handle the mountainous challenge but because the owner was comfortable with him. The owner didn't want to contend with another arrogant and condescending GM who acted as if he was the sole authority in the franchise. So the insular owner did what he has a tendency to do: rely on people he knew who came from his circle of associates. The primary attribute that Levy possessed was that he was the opposite of the insufferable Donahoe. Levy was congenial and deferential. How much more appealing can one be, especially after having dealt withl with the Napoleanonic Donahoe?

 

Nix's greatest asset is that he has the trust of the aging owner who steadily is fading from the operation. (I say this with sesitivity and not disrespect for the elderly owner.) In my view Nix's greatest accomplishment so far is that he has completely restructured the organization and made it more normal compared to the prior bizaare and disjointed management system. Now, whether one looks at the college or pro scouting divisions there is a coherency to the organization. All levels in the organization are on the same page. There is now a rational process in place that gives the franchise a better chance to make good decisions.

Edited May 31, 2012 by JohnC

[Bill from NYC]

I don't want to be cruel but the truth of the matter was Marv Levy was simply incompetent as a GM. He really didn't want that position; he wanted to get back into coaching.decisions.

 

The truth is that Levy was hired as a GM, and no other team in the league would have hired him. Levy then hired a head coach that no team in the league would have hired in this capacity because he is not competent to the head coach of an NFL football team.

 

I am NOT one to worship Gailey/Nix and all of their moves, but they are true football people. And let's just say that while I think that Marv was/is a good man, motivator, and one who could soothe egos, I am less than enamored with him as a football man.

 

The above is simply my opinion.

[JohnC]

The truth is that Levy was hired as a GM, and no other team in the league would have hired him. Levy then hired a head coach that no team in the league would have hired in this capacity because he is not competent to the head coach of an NFL football team.

 

I am NOT one to worship Gailey/Nix and all of their moves, but they are true football people. And let's just say that while I think that Marv was/is a good man, motivator, and one who could soothe egos, I am less than enamored with him as a football man.

 

The above is simply my opinion.

 

As a head coach Levy understood his strengths and more importantly his limitations. He allowed the OC and DC to run their own side of the ball without much interference. ML's forte was special teams.

 

There are a lot of different approaches to success. If one's philosophy or managerial style is being hands off and more of a manager and it works then so be it. If one has a more authoritarian and involved type of style and it works then so be it. There are a lot of successful DA's who manage their office by allowing the assitant DAs to do all the trial work. Then there are DAs who get directly invovled in cases and who prefer being involved in the courtroom with high profile cases. There are successful CEOs in business who mostly delegate and there are successful CEOs who are more directly involved in the business. There is no one way to be successful other than being true to oneself and belmg accountable for the outcome.

 

Levy the GM was not the problem. The source of the problem was the inexplicable selection of Levy to be the GM by the clueless owner.

Edited June 1, 2012 by JohnC