Why Drafting A Franchise QB At #3 Is Important

[ohiotim]

Here's the playoff seeding for this year:

 

AFC

Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, 7th rd pick)

 

Bye

Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick)

Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick)

 

NFC

New Orleans (Brees, 2nd rd pick) vs. either St. Louis (Bradford, 1st rd pick) or Seattle (Hasselbeck, 6th rd pick)

Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, 1st rd pick or Kolb, 2nd rd pick)

 

Bye

Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick)

Chicago (Cutler, 1st rd pick)

 

1st rd picks at QB in playoffs: 9 of 12 teams

 

Teams that didn't make the playoffs with winning records:

Giants (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Tampa Bay (Freeman, 1st rd pick)

San Diego (Rivers, 1st rd pick)

 

# of teams with winning records + playoff teams with 1st rd QBs: 12 of 15

 

Other 1st rd picks at QB:

Teams that didn't make the playoffs with .500 or below records:

Dallas (Romo [hurt], undrafted, Kitna undrafted)

Washington (McNabb, 1st rd pick, Grossman, 1st rd pick) - both have been to SB with other teams

Detroit (Stafford [hurt], 1st rd pick, Hill, undrafted) - too early on Stafford

Minnesota (Favre [hurt], 2nd rd pick, Jackson, 2nd rd pick)

Carolina (Moore [hurt], undrafted, Clausen, 2nd rd pick)

San Francisco (Smith, 1st rd pick, Smith, 5th rd pick) - Smith is a legit bust

Arizona (Anderson, undrafted, Hall, undrafted, Skelton, 5th rd pick)

Miami (Henne, 2nd rd pick)

Cleveland (Delhomme, undrafted, McCoy, 3rd rd pick)

Cincinnati (Palmer, 1st rd pick) - has been above average most of his career, but is starting to fade

Jacksonville (Garrard, 4th rd pick)

Tennessee (Young, 1st rd pick, Collins, 1st rd pick) - Young is a headcase, Collins has been to SB

Oakland (Campbell, 1st rd pick, Boller, 1st rd pick) - both underachievers

Denver (Orton, 4th rd pick, Tebow, 1st rd pick) - too early on Tebow

 

Obviously, drafting a QB in the 1st does not guarantee a better team or playoff spot, but the numbers do not lie - to win in this league, you have to have a stud behind center, and 9 out of 12 times, they are found in the first round.

[zonabb]

Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk.

 

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

[MarkAF43]

Here's the playoff seeding for this year:

 

AFC

Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, 7th rd pick)

 

Bye

Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick)

Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick)

 

NFC

New Orleans (Brees, 2nd rd pick) vs. either St. Louis (Bradford, 1st rd pick) or Seattle (Hasselbeck, 6th rd pick)

Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, 1st rd pick or Kolb, 2nd rd pick)

 

Bye

Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick)

Chicago (Cutler, 1st rd pick)

 

1st rd picks at QB in playoffs: 9 of 12 teams

 

Teams that didn't make the playoffs with winning records:

Giants (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Tampa Bay (Freeman, 1st rd pick)

San Diego (Rivers, 1st rd pick)

 

# of teams with winning records + playoff teams with 1st rd QBs: 12 of 15

 

Other 1st rd picks at QB:

Teams that didn't make the playoffs with .500 or below records:

Dallas (Romo [hurt], undrafted, Kitna undrafted)

Washington (McNabb, 1st rd pick, Grossman, 1st rd pick) - both have been to SB with other teams

Detroit (Stafford [hurt], 1st rd pick, Hill, undrafted) - too early on Stafford

Minnesota (Favre [hurt], 2nd rd pick, Jackson, 2nd rd pick)

Carolina (Moore [hurt], undrafted, Clausen, 2nd rd pick)

San Francisco (Smith, 1st rd pick, Smith, 5th rd pick) - Smith is a legit bust

Arizona (Anderson, undrafted, Hall, undrafted, Skelton, 5th rd pick)

Miami (Henne, 2nd rd pick)

Cleveland (Delhomme, undrafted, McCoy, 3rd rd pick)

Cincinnati (Palmer, 1st rd pick) - has been above average most of his career, but is starting to fade

Jacksonville (Garrard, 4th rd pick)

Tennessee (Young, 1st rd pick, Collins, 1st rd pick) - Young is a headcase, Collins has been to SB

Oakland (Campbell, 1st rd pick, Boller, 1st rd pick) - both underachievers

Denver (Orton, 4th rd pick, Tebow, 1st rd pick) - too early on Tebow

 

Obviously, drafting a QB in the 1st does not guarantee a better team or playoff spot, but the numbers do not lie - to win in this league, you have to have a stud behind center, and 9 out of 12 times, they are found in the first round.

 

 

 

Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year.

[87168]

Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk.

 

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

 

 

Ouch.....haha

[KD in CA]

Too bad there won't be any franchaise QBs available at #3.

[agardin]

I don't disagree but it does depend on if that true franchise player is there. If Luck comes out and is gone do the Bills draft Mallett, Newton or Locker? The latter three will move up if they all declare. Newton and Locker will as I would expect they will have excellent workouts ( Mallett is already a top 15 pick) I really don't like picking a guy after they have excellent work outs. McKelvin and Maybin would be good examples of that. The only guy that I have seen shoot up the charts after a great combine and be worth it was Flacco. I guess there are probably others. It is going to be a tough off season for the front office, if they whiff on the number 3 pick it will be devasting. Kinda like all of the Bills misses in the last decade.

[Green Lightning]

Too bad there won't be any franchaise QBs available at #3.

 

This.

 

Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year.

 

And this....

[DCBongo]

If there is a good Qb there at 3, yes, Bills have got to pull the trigger. Outside of Luck, there is no one else worth a 1st round pick. Go heavy on the D. Our O would be alot better if the D could stop the run on occasion.

[Rob's House]

So, if I follow your logic correctly, although Fitz has shined while surrounded by limited talent in an offense where all others have failed miserably, we need spend our top pick on a QB b/c of his draft position? I wish NE subscribed to this brand of logic.

[Spiderweb]

So, if I follow your logic correctly, although Fitz has shined while surrounded by limited talent in an offense where all others have failed miserably, we need spend our top pick on a QB b/c of his draft position? I wish NE subscribed to this brand of logic.

 

Hummm, did you miss last weeks game or the first game against the Pats with two 4th quarter picks, or the quarter picks against the Ravens, of the 4th quarter pick against the Chiefs? How about the OT miss fires? Save the Pittsburgh game, Fitz had a direct hand in all those losses. You can say he was why we were in the game. Why? Simply because up to the late picks, he had mostly done what a NFL QB should be able to do?

 

Fitz played well in spurts, that was shown, but shine? I like Fitz, but mostly because he hasn't stunk as bad as the QB's since Bledsoe's first 8 games with Buffalo. I'll have to say "shine" in my book must be quite different than shine in your book. "Shine" would mean that Fitz made the throws to

win against the Ravens, Bears, Chiefs, Piits.........

 

Fitz may be our best option currently, but by no means is he a guy that lets you pass on a top QB in the draft. Lucky for Fitz, after Luck, they appear iffy.

[Dorkington]

The offense has been ok, to good at times.... the defense has been bad to worse all season... and everyone is talking QB as the main concern.

 

I hope Nix doesn't agree with you yahoos.

 

A QB won't get the job done by himself, you have to install tools around him before installing a QB. Lets shore up our weak points, then draft our guy. Fitz is a fine stop gap, no need to bench him at the moment.

[Magox]

Hummm, did you miss last weeks game or the first game against the Pats with two 4th quarter picks, or the quarter picks against the Ravens, of the 4th quarter pick against the Chiefs? How about the OT miss fires? Save the Pittsburgh game, Fitz had a direct hand in all those losses. You can say he was why we were in the game. Why? Simply because up to the late picks, he had mostly done what a NFL QB should be able to do?

 

Fitz played well in spurts, that was shown, but shine? I like Fitz, but mostly because he hasn't stunk as bad as the QB's since Bledsoe's first 8 games with Buffalo. I'll have to say "shine" in my book must be quite different than shine in your book. "Shine" would mean that Fitz made the throws to

win against the Ravens, Bears, Chiefs, Piits.........

 

Fitz may be our best option currently, but by no means is he a guy that lets you pass on a top QB in the draft. Lucky for Fitz, after Luck, they appear iffy.

Did you just cherry pick some of his bad moments?

[Rob's House]

Hummm, did you miss last weeks game or the first game against the Pats with two 4th quarter picks, or the quarter picks against the Ravens, of the 4th quarter pick against the Chiefs? How about the OT miss fires? Save the Pittsburgh game, Fitz had a direct hand in all those losses. You can say he was why we were in the game. Why? Simply because up to the late picks, he had mostly done what a NFL QB should be able to do?

 

Fitz played well in spurts, that was shown, but shine? I like Fitz, but mostly because he hasn't stunk as bad as the QB's since Bledsoe's first 8 games with Buffalo. I'll have to say "shine" in my book must be quite different than shine in your book. "Shine" would mean that Fitz made the throws to

win against the Ravens, Bears, Chiefs, Piits.........

 

Fitz may be our best option currently, but by no means is he a guy that lets you pass on a top QB in the draft. Lucky for Fitz, after Luck, they appear iffy.

Was another of those OT misfires when he completed the pass inside Baltimore's 40 only to have the receiver get stripped?

 

He was by no means flawless, but here's the thing. He played behind arguably the worst line in the league, with one of the least accomplished receiving corps, in an offense that struggled to make so much as a first down, much less a TD when anyone else played. No Bills QB had thrown for 300 yds in 3+ yrs. People were questioning if this was the worst team, not only in the NFL, but in the history of the NFL. People even questioned if this team could beat a UFL team. Then Fitz steps into this joke of an offense and all of a sudden no one's laughing. And Fitz is putting up 300 yd 4 td games and taking SB contenders into OT. In 13 games he notched 3000 yds and 23 tds (which at that rate would translate to 3700 yds and 28 tds over 16 games). The NE game was the first game all season he didn't have a TD pass. I say we stop nit picking and give the man his due.

[Spiderweb]

Did you just cherry pick some of his bad moments?

 

Cherry picked? Yeah, that what I did. There was a three game stretch with the Bills in every game in which Fitz had the very 4th quarter picks I referred to.

 

How about Fitz's pick and three fumbles against the Vikes, or his three picks and two fumbles against the Pats. That's 5 games right there. How about Fitz's last 9 games, in which the Bills scored 20 or more point just once (Bengals)? If Fitz is to become a winning QB, all of this must improve.

 

I'm sure with a little digging I could add more, but this is all highly visible and required no digging. Fitz would get us close, but then break our heart.

 

Added:

 

Heck, I like his fire, his intensity, his effort, etc. He surely helped make the Bills far more competitive, but no rose colored glasses here, he played a part in the losses, sometimes a considerable part. based on what the Bills have and what he did, yes, he is clearly our number 1, but I wouldn't stop looking for an upgrade to the QB position.

Edited January 3, 2011 by Spiderweb

[flmike]

Agreed, bottom line is that Fitz(gibbons) has earned another season at the helm. The stability will do this team wonders. A new DC would make us want to watch!

[whodat]

Was another of those OT misfires when he completed the pass inside Baltimore's 40 only to have the receiver get stripped?

 

He was by no means flawless, but here's the thing. He played behind arguably the worst line in the league, with one of the least accomplished receiving corps, in an offense that struggled to make so much as a first down, much less a TD when anyone else played. No Bills QB had thrown for 300 yds in 3+ yrs. People were questioning if this was the worst team, not only in the NFL, but in the history of the NFL. People even questioned if this team could beat a UFL team. Then Fitz steps into this joke of an offense and all of a sudden no one's laughing. And Fitz is putting up 300 yd 4 td games and taking SB contenders into OT. In 13 games he notched 3000 yds and 23 tds (which at that rate would translate to 3700 yds and 28 tds over 16 games). The NE game was the first game all season he didn't have a TD pass. I say we stop nit picking and give the man his due.

Hear, hear. Excellent points that need to be made. I’m glad Buddy and Chan are making this decision. It’s not going to be an easy one. We saw how bad this offense is under Edwards, Brohm as well as Losman. Fitzpatrick creates something out of this mess. However picking third, they have an open field of opportunity. And having all those options available makes this a little more complicated and interesting. Don't know my wish list other than I’m glad, so glad the past decision makers are behind us. There's at least a chance of something good.

[superbills315]

Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year.

 

 

 

and they have a good O-Line

[Koufax]

The offense has been ok, to good at times.... the defense has been bad to worse all season... and everyone is talking QB as the main concern.

 

I hope Nix doesn't agree with you yahoos.

 

A QB won't get the job done by himself, you have to install tools around him before installing a QB. Lets shore up our weak points, then draft our guy. Fitz is a fine stop gap, no need to bench him at the moment.

 

I agree with most of you comments, but "shore up our weak points" sounds like you think the 2011 draft class should drammatically affect the 2011 season and should be chosen based on 2010 needs. I just see that as bad management, both because draft picks tend to contribute more in years 2 through 5 than year 1, and because that usually means getting inferior players because position comes before talent.

 

Other than that, good points, and try to add the most talent to the roster possible (yes, some front 7 most likely) and with fitz we can pick the right QB in 2011 or 2012 and develop him...not force our #3 overall pick and throw that guy to the wolves hoping he is good.

 

All that said, I see some Mallet/Rothlisberger similarities and I hope he gets a careful look by Buddy.

[8-8 Forever?]

Too bad there won't be any franchaise QBs available at #3.

+1

[akm0404]

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

We are talking about the terrible performance of one season of NFL football, not some million-trial clinical test or statistically valid population sample or something. Lose the 'Stats 101' powertrip and get real. It's a football message board. People use statistics to compare performances over the course of one or more seasons to make their points.

 

And the point of the OP was that highly drafted quarterbacks tend to show up more in the playoffs, which is obviously true.

 

You don't need a phD to recognize that the teams with the best quarterbacks compete for championships year in and year out, while the teams with the journeymen fight for the scraps.

 

Also, to the posters that claim the Bills offense is good - it's really quite terrible and about as bad as the defense was. Fitz did not shine - he was well below average and led his team to the third worst season in the NFL. Bottom quarter offense, bottom of the barrel QB. Only way to turn things around and compete for championships for a decade is to find elite QB play any way you can - and not settle for a smart guy with a killer beard. Dare to dream of having the next Tom Brady and own the division until 2025.

Edited January 3, 2011 by akm0404

[K Gun Special]

Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year.

 

 

yea bc when you are scoring points its hard to give up that many yards on the ground.

 

The bills offense is just as bad as the defense.

 

Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk.

 

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

 

 

Ok, since 1983, every super bowl except one, has featured at least one first round QB. Many have had two.

[CodeMonkey]

A new DC would make us want to watch!

Hmmm. I'm not sold on the new DC thing. If you apply the same logic to the offense which was also very bad this season, you would have to throw Gailey under the bus as well. You can't expect miracles with dog **** for players, no matter who the DC is.

[Wraith]

We are talking about the terrible performance of one season of NFL football, not some million-trial clinical test or statistically valid population sample or something. Lose the 'Stats 101' powertrip and get real. It's a football message board. People use statistics to compare performances over the course of one or more seasons to make their points.

 

Yeah and they're usually wrong. The original poster grossly distorted the truth, anyway. Here's the real layout.

 

AFC

Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, Trade)

 

Bye

Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick)

Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick)

 

NFC

New Orleans (Brees, Free Agent) vs. Seattle (Hasselbeck, Free Agent)

Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, Free Agent)

 

Bye

Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick)

Chicago (Cutler, Trade)

 

1st rd picks at QB in playoffs with the team that drafted them: 6 of 12 teams

 

Of those six, two are mediocre to decent (Sanchez and Flacco) and reliant on great defenses.

[TH3]

Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk.

 

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

 

Actually I took alot of statistics - and he has a point. A top level quarterback has a more statistically significant effect on a team than any other position. Flip out Manning, Brady, Brees, BR, MV,Ryan....with say Trent or even Fitz and one has a completely different team. A great DE will not change the fortunes of a team as much as a top QB.

 

I agree with his point - if there is a QB who is a game changer - I would agree to take him in round one. Now the debate becomes - get Luck - or is Cam Newton or Mallet/Gibbons(sp?) one of those qb's that is "statistically significant"?

Edited January 3, 2011 by baskin

[BobChalmers]

Also, to the posters that claim the Bills offense is good - it's really quite terrible and about as bad as the defense was. Fitz did not shine - he was well below average and led his team to the third worst season in the NFL. Bottom quarter offense, bottom of the barrel QB. Only way to turn things around and compete for championships for a decade is to find elite QB play any way you can - and not settle for a smart guy with a killer beard. Dare to dream of having the next Tom Brady and own the division until 2025.

 

FAIL.

 

This team defense gave up 30+ points in NINE of SIXTEEN games. Thanks to Fitz and the offense, we actually managed to win one of those, and went to OT in another.

 

People who assign win % to the QB obviously have no business arguing what position to draft. For you QB == WINS and by that logic, obviously we should trade our entire roster and all future draft picks for Manning or Brady. Your faulty premise makes any logical argument invalid.

 

The truth is, football is as great as it is because it's the ultimate team game, and you need players at all positions to succeed. Yes, QB is the single most important position, but that's relative to each other position, not all other positions in total.

 

 

Also - why can't people on this board pay attention to what's happening to the roster over the season and see its impact on the result? The OL sucks? is that before or after we had two waiver guys manning the right side?? Does noone else see how losing multiple starters directly leads to less offense? We need a better starting ORT so that we can be using our starters as depth. We need a real TE so we can hurt teams up the middle when they blitz or drop into cover-2.

 

The Patriots are so smart? Well, who did they draft last year? Oh look - 2 TE's in the first three rounds. When Brady went down they were still 11-5, led by a guy who was never a college starter - remember?

 

We need a TE and at least 2 LB's and an ORT.

 

Having said that - if Luck or another QB Nix believes in as elite is there at #3, you may have to go for it just because it's (thankfully) rare to be up there. But you don't take a QB just because.

Edited January 3, 2011 by BobChalmers

[N.Y. Orangeman]

Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk.

 

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

 

 

You are wrong. One year of stats may or may not be determinative, but it may be significant in a larger population and i am guessing the poster wasn't a suggesting a finding of the scale you were attributing to it. Also, while this isn't statistically significant, other larger population studies have been done which support to the point ( which may or may not be significant). Regardless, your apparent position doesn't even have a population as supportive as this one. In any event, while as this study may be slanted, your response is more slanted and lacks any facts as well.

Edited January 3, 2011 by N.Y. Orangeman

[benjamin]

Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk.

 

Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant.

 

While I agree, that's a pretty high bar to surpass on a sports discussion board. 2BD would be a lonely place if that were a requirement for comments.

[K Gun Special]

Yeah and they're usually wrong. The original poster grossly distorted the truth, anyway. Here's the real layout.

 

AFC

Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, Trade)

 

Bye

Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick)

Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick)

 

NFC

New Orleans (Brees, Free Agent) vs. Seattle (Hasselbeck, Free Agent)

Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, Free Agent)

 

Bye

Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick)

Chicago (Cutler, Trade)

 

1st rd picks at QB in playoffs with the team that drafted them: 6 of 12 teams

 

Of those six, two are mediocre to decent (Sanchez and Flacco) and reliant on great defenses.

 

 

I fail to see how the OP distorted the truth. You simply have a different reading bc your focus is on whether that person was drafted by their current team.

 

The posters main point was that 1st round QB talent is most important, its been covered countless time. Look at the last 25 super bowls and show me one other than the Brad Johnson SB that didn't have one 1st round QB playing, i don't care if that team drafted him either.

[Wraith]

I don't care if that team drafted him either.

Unless the point is to draft a QB that will eventually lead some other team to the playoffs, you should care.

[K Gun Special]

Unless the point is to draft a QB that will eventually lead some other team to the playoffs, you should care.

 

 

The point is to acquire top QB talent, which almost always has to be done via the draft. If we can do that via trade im all for it.

 

You can be successful with avg oline or D if you have a great QB.

 

Raising the QB play is the #1 way for a team to be successful in a quick way.

[Just in Atlanta]

Here's the playoff seeding for this year:

 

AFC

Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, 7th rd pick)

 

Bye

Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick)

Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick)

 

NFC

New Orleans (Brees, 2nd rd pick) vs. either St. Louis (Bradford, 1st rd pick) or Seattle (Hasselbeck, 6th rd pick)

Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, 1st rd pick or Kolb, 2nd rd pick)

 

Bye

Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick)

Chicago (Cutler, 1st rd pick)

 

1st rd picks at QB in playoffs: 9 of 12 teams

 

Teams that didn't make the playoffs with winning records:

Giants (Manning, 1st rd pick)

Tampa Bay (Freeman, 1st rd pick)

San Diego (Rivers, 1st rd pick)

 

# of teams with winning records + playoff teams with 1st rd QBs: 12 of 15

 

Other 1st rd picks at QB:

Teams that didn't make the playoffs with .500 or below records:

Dallas (Romo [hurt], undrafted, Kitna undrafted)

Washington (McNabb, 1st rd pick, Grossman, 1st rd pick) - both have been to SB with other teams

Detroit (Stafford [hurt], 1st rd pick, Hill, undrafted) - too early on Stafford

Minnesota (Favre [hurt], 2nd rd pick, Jackson, 2nd rd pick)

Carolina (Moore [hurt], undrafted, Clausen, 2nd rd pick)

San Francisco (Smith, 1st rd pick, Smith, 5th rd pick) - Smith is a legit bust

Arizona (Anderson, undrafted, Hall, undrafted, Skelton, 5th rd pick)

Miami (Henne, 2nd rd pick)

Cleveland (Delhomme, undrafted, McCoy, 3rd rd pick)

Cincinnati (Palmer, 1st rd pick) - has been above average most of his career, but is starting to fade

Jacksonville (Garrard, 4th rd pick)

Tennessee (Young, 1st rd pick, Collins, 1st rd pick) - Young is a headcase, Collins has been to SB

Oakland (Campbell, 1st rd pick, Boller, 1st rd pick) - both underachievers

Denver (Orton, 4th rd pick, Tebow, 1st rd pick) - too early on Tebow

 

Obviously, drafting a QB in the 1st does not guarantee a better team or playoff spot, but the numbers do not lie - to win in this league, you have to have a stud behind center, and 9 out of 12 times, they are found in the first round.

Disagree. Fitz at least is an average QB playing behind a below average line and with a way below average run defense. I think most fans would rather have him than Sanchez or Henne. Unless we can get Luck, I don't see any point wasting a first round pick on anything other than addressing our most pressing need--run stuffers.

[Rob's House]

Since 2000 Only 5 of 11 SB winning teams had a QB drafted in rd 1 (and one was Trent Dilfer). Of the remaining teams, 5 had a QB picked in rd 6 or later. This scientific method of statistical analysis proves that in this century the SB champion is just as likely to have a QB picked in the 6th or later as it is to have a 1st rounder. In fact, statistically speaking there is a higher probability that the SB champions will not have a 1st rd quarterback. Just sayin.

[akm0404]

FAIL.

 

This team defense gave up 30+ points in NINE of SIXTEEN games. Thanks to Fitz and the offense, we actually managed to win one of those, and went to OT in another.

 

25th in the NFL in total offense. 28th in the NFL in points scored. I'll give you that the offense is somewhat better than last year, and was CERTAINLY more watchable (touchdowns+turnovers look MUCH better than 3 and out futility, even if they accomplish the same thing). But the Bills offense was bad. Very very very bad in 2010. There were only a handful of teams that were worse offensively. That isn't good enough.

 

The defense was statistically almost identical to the offense in terms of futility. They did it by getting blown up by the run and playing decently against the pass. But either way, 24th in the NFL in total defense and woeful in forcing turnovers. Very comparable, but they were more the Edwards style of getting ground to a pulp methodically game in and game out.

 

Both are not nearly good enough, and both need to be RADICALLY improved in order for the Bills to contend for the playoffs.

 

 

Having said that - if Luck or another QB Nix believes in as elite is there at #3, you may have to go for it just because it's (thankfully) rare to be up there. But you don't take a QB just because.

 

I agree with you here. If Luck is there, you take him because you'd be on drugs not to. If you don't think Newton can be a superstar, you pass on him.

[34-78-83]

FAIL.

 

This team defense gave up 30+ points in NINE of SIXTEEN games. Thanks to Fitz and the offense, we actually managed to win one of those, and went to OT in another.

 

People who assign win % to the QB obviously have no business arguing what position to draft. For you QB == WINS and by that logic, obviously we should trade our entire roster and all future draft picks for Manning or Brady. Your faulty premise makes any logical argument invalid.

 

The truth is, football is as great as it is because it's the ultimate team game, and you need players at all positions to succeed. Yes, QB is the single most important position, but that's relative to each other position, not all other positions in total.

 

 

Also - why can't people on this board pay attention to what's happening to the roster over the season and see its impact on the result? The OL sucks? is that before or after we had two waiver guys manning the right side?? Does noone else see how losing multiple starters directly leads to less offense? We need a better starting ORT so that we can be using our starters as depth. We need a real TE so we can hurt teams up the middle when they blitz or drop into cover-2.

 

The Patriots are so smart? Well, who did they draft last year? Oh look - 2 TE's in the first three rounds. When Brady went down they were still 11-5, led by a guy who was never a college starter - remember?

 

We need a TE and at least 2 LB's and an ORT.

 

Having said that - if Luck or another QB Nix believes in as elite is there at #3, you may have to go for it just because it's (thankfully) rare to be up there. But you don't take a QB just because.

[All_Pro_Bills]

A QB can only be a Franchise QB AFTER they demonstrate success at the Pro level. Since none of the potential draftees have a single down of professional football experience its hard to say any of them are the real deal. Maybe all 4 top QB prospects turn out to be great pro's or maybe none of them. More likely something in between. I haven't gathered any statistics but I suspect there's just as many 1st round QB busts as there are guys that turn out to be 'Franchise QB's'.

 

The problem with the draft is you're not sure what you're going to get. The Bills have a high 1st round pick and must select an impact player, whatever the position. If they go defense or offense he's got to be a playmaker. He's got to dominate his opponent, win the one-on-one battles, and make plays, not ride the bench like many of the Bills recent 1st rounders. He's got to enable the offense to put points on the board or keep the opposition from doing the same.

 

I'm no draft expert but I do know if you can't stop the run, rush the passer, and protect you're own QB it really doesn't matter who you have at the QB position. Drafting a franchise QB given the current state of the Bills would be like putting a professional NASCAR driver in a Yugo for the Daytona 500 and expecting a 1st place finish. Getting a great QB will lead to more victories only if you've got the support system and an above average team around him to succeed.