mjt328

If the draft is a total crap shoot, then scouting doesn't matter and teams should be able to just pick a random person off the street to be the GM. Also, the best strategy would be to continually trade down until you have stockpiled dozens of selections in the 6th-7th Round.

Pretty much spot on here. Brandon Beane spoke last week about continuity on the O-Line, and how it was great they had the same starting five returning in 2020. I also believe Beane drafted Cody Ford to play Right Tackle, and they aren't going to give-up immediately just because he struggled as a rookie. At the same time, this team is past the growth stage and ready to compete for a championship. Coaches will not have the patience to deal with a "weak spot" on the roster this year. Ford certainly gets first crack. But if he continues to struggle into the regular season, it won't be long before Daryl Williams steps into the lineup.

Agree with all this. Devon Singletary will definitely be the starter. Although I do think Zack Moss will be counted on very heavily for short-yardage carries and red zone work, even at the beginning of the season. They really don't have anyone else to fill that role with Frank Gore gone. Mario Addison will start opposite Jerry Hughes. I am skeptical that Trent Murphy makes the team. AJ Epenesa will be brought along very slowly, and will need to earn increased playing time. It may take a year before he breaks the starting lineup. To me, the biggest question mark in the starting lineup is at Cornerback. I think both Josh Norman and Levi Wallace have a very good chance to win this job. And it's hard to know whether the coaching staff would default to the veteran newcomer, or the younger guy who has been on the team for 2 seasons already.

It shouldn't be a tough conversation. We should be teaching our children to judge everyone based on the content of their character. Not based on the color of their skin. Period. I fully understand that as a society (meaning the U.S.), we have a terrible history regarding race. And we still aren't where we need to be. But many of the solutions being proposed (Rooney Rule, Affirmative Action, Diversity Initiatives), are NOT working and are actually doing more to divide us. Instead of encouraging an employer to NOT see skin color, and instead see character when making a hire... these ideas encourage ONLY seeing skin color, or at least making it one of the primary factors. If I was of a minority race, I wouldn't want an employer to just hire me because they needed to hit a quota. I would want to live in a society where my skills and qualifications were the driving force behind me getting the job.

The NFL had an article about 5-6 years ago, stating that LESS THAN 20 percent of head coaches were former players. It's two completely different professions, and the racial makeup is completely irrelevant. African Americans aren't being turned down for head coaching jobs. It's just a small percentage that are actually interested in pursuing that avenue. And if the NFL is 70 percent black, why shouldn't the white population be kicking and screaming? Why don't we offer incentives for teams to draft/roster white players? The answer is because it's racist. And it's just as racist to do it in reverse. Sorry if I sound upset (I do usually like to have rational conversations), but I'm not having a great day and this kind of nonsense is really ticking me off at the moment.

How so? Football is not a very popular sport outside of the U.S./North America. It's not something played in Asia. It's not something played in Middle Eastern countries. It's not played in Africa or even in Mexico or South America. Which means the "diversity" angle is going to be pretty much limited to white and black. And as I mentioned already - the percentage breakdown of the NFL vs. the United States population is actually very close. 12-14 percent of the U.S. population. Currently 12.5 percent of the NFL head coaches. If minority candidates are being passed over BECAUSE of their race/skin color, then that's a problem. But there is absolutely NO EVIDENCE or suggestion that is happening. And I personally resent installing blatantly racist rules into the sport, just so the NFL can hit their little diversity check marks. It's total B.S.

What a blatantly racist idea. If you believe the United States has a problem with RACISM, then you don't FIX IT by giving bonuses/perks to organizations for HIRING BASED ON RACE. It's completely ass-backwards. Honestly, I don't know how people come up with this ridiculous garbage. Maybe instead of testing the players for CTE, they need to check the folks in the NFL offices for brain damage. By the way, African Americans make up 12-14 percent of the U.S. population, according to the latest census figures. If you took that percent and multiplied it by 32 teams, that comes to exactly 4.48. Which means you would expect to see 4-5 African American head coaches in the NFL at any given time. There are currently FOUR in the league. This is a completely made-up and manufactured "problem."

Watkins is a very small puzzle piece on the Chiefs team. He just took a massive pay-cut this offseason to return. For them, he's not a huge distraction. Because they aren't counting on him to be more than the 3rd-4th option in the passing game. The Bills made a HUGE investment to obtain Watkins - not only in using a Top 5 pick on him, but actually trading up to do it. They were counting on him to be a leader, and a key piece that would vault our offense and team into the playoffs. Every organization will take a chance on problem players. It's the dysfunctional ones that use high draft picks and big free agent contracts on risky characters.

Yet another example of why this Bills organization struggled for almost two decades, before finally breaking through. You constantly hear about NFL scouts doing crazy amounts of due-diligence on prospects (especially those slated to go 1st Round). Their work habits. Their personal lives. Their medical history. Yet somehow Doug Whaley and his guys happened to miss - or simply didn't care - that Sammy Watkins was completely loony toons and had serious substance abuse issues. It should also comfort fans that Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott walked in the door at One Bills Drive, and pretty much instantly realized he needed to go. They immediately declined his 5th Year Option, and then showcased Watkins in exactly one preseason game before trading him off to the Rams. I always figured the decision was about injuries and securing extra draft capital for a Quarterback. The idea that Watkins didn't "fit" the culture seemed weird to me, because his off-field troubles weren't very public. This certainly clears things up.

No NFL games are easy. But a difficult win counts just as much as a blowout. The Cardinals, Broncos, Raiders and Jets should have improved teams in 2020. No doubt about it. But I still look at the Bills, and believe they are significantly better than any of these teams. They should beat them. In fact, the only teams on the schedule I would argue have a better roster are the Chiefs and 49ers.

I always figure that we will win a couple we aren't expected to, and then lose a couple we probably shouldn't. It pretty-much evens out at the end. For example in 2019, I was pretty much spot-on predicting the Bills to go 10-6 before the season. But I definitely expected them to lose to the Cowboys, and did not expect them to lose to the Jets in Week 17. I figured the Titans, Browns, Steelers and Ravens to be toss-ups, and the Bills sure enough went 2-2 in those games. This year, we should absolutely be heavily favored against the Dolphins x 2, Patriots x 2, Raiders and Chargers. That is 6 games nobody should be picking us to lose, unless they consider last year's success a total fluke, or they think Jarrett Stidham will be a stud. The Chiefs and 49ers are currently the class of the league, and should still be favored over the Bills at this point. So these are 2 games we likely lose. At this point, the big toss-ups would be the Rams, Titans, Seahawks and Steelers. The teams with the biggest chance to improve are the Jets x 2, Broncos and Cardinals. If the Bills can at least split these games, they repeat at 10-6 and still easily win the AFC East. Personally, I think they have a good chance to do better than split - putting my expectation clearly in the 11-12 win camp (can't quite decide yet).

Before the season, I usually try to tackle the schedule from a couple different angles. Based purely on last year's (2019 season) results, the Bills had a better record than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos). They also had a better point differential than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos). Of course, teams won't be exactly the same as last year. And my "objective" non-scientific opinion is that the: - Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, Steelers and Broncos have improved their rosters since the 2019 season - Rams, Patriots and Chargers have gotten worse since the 2019 season - Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers are roughly the same as the 2019 season What makes this schedule so tricky to predict, is the poor/below average franchises in 2019 were usually the ones who apparently made the biggest strides in the offseason. Fortunately, I also believe the Bills have improved from last year's squad. Since Josh Allen is generally considered our weakest link, I also wanted to do a comparison of Quarterback opponents. - In my opinion, we only play two elite guys this year (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), who are significantly better than Allen. Due to unknowns about his injury/age, I would consider Ben Roethlisberger an iffy addition to this category. - We also play a handful of mid-level/veteran QBs who are inconsistent in performance (Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo, probably one game against Ryan Fitzpatrick) and could easily be surpassed by Allen this year. - The rest of the games are against Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Jarrett Stidham and Drew Lock. I suspect Tua takes over by Week 17 and it's likely that Justin Herbert will replace Tyrod Taylor before Week 12. If we lose to the elite guys, split against the vets and beat everyone else, that comes out to 11 wins. Those factors considered, here are my predictions on : 1 - Jets (Home) - Win, 1-0 2 - Dolphins (Road) - Win, 2-0 3 - Rams (Home) - Win, 3-0 4 - Raiders (Road) - Win, 4-0 5 - Titans (Road) - Loss, 4-1 6 - Chiefs (Home) - Loss, 4-2 7 - Jets (Road) - Win, 5-2 8 - Patriots (Home) - Win, 6-2 9 - Seahawks (Home) - Loss, 6-3 10 - Cardinals (Road) - Win, 7-3 11 - Bye 12 - Chargers (Home) - Win, 8-3 13 - 49ers (Road) - Loss, 8-4 14 - Steelers - (Home) - Win, 9-4 15 - Broncos (Road) - Win, 10-4 16 - Patriots (Road) - Win, 11-4 17 - Dolphins (Home) - Win, 12-4

I honestly don't think Lorenzo Alexander will be missed a lot. His base position of SLB (Strongside Linbebacker) will be manned by A.J. Klein, who was brought in during free agency. Klein isn't a spectacular player, but he's a pretty solid veteran and has started the last 3 seasons for the Saints. In my opinion, the loss here will be marginal. Most of the time, the Bills defense will actually be in nickel. This means two linebackers (Milano, Edmunds) and either Taron Johnson or Siran Neal covering the slot receiver. Over the last few years, Alexander has often slid onto the defensive line when the Bills go into Nickel. With the additions of Quinton Jefferson and A.J. Epenesa, I don't believe Alexander will be missed much in the pass rushing rotation either.

I would suggest watching the Cover 1 film session on him. Pass rushing isn't just about speed. Edge rushers can also win with leverage, great hand usage, and recognition. And while AJ Epenesa isn't the fastest athlete, he is absolutely exceptional with everything else. Based on tape alone, most had Epenesa slated as a Top 15 draft pick. If he had killed the Combine drills, he would have almost certainly jumped into the Top 10. Despite him not posting great numbers, most still saw him as a 1st Round prospect. We got a steal and he should still outperform most of the other guys picked last weekend.

People that don't like Josh Allen usually like to knock his accuracy (citing completion percentage), and his supposed "reckless" play (citing turnovers). At the same time, Dalton is usually considered a super-accurate passer and game-manager who avoids mistakes. Allen's completion percentage in 2019 was 58.8%. Dalton's last three seasons were 59.5%, 61.9% and 59.9%. His career average is only 62%. Allen threw 9 interceptions last season, and 12 interceptions as a rookie. Dalton threw 14 interceptions in less games last year, preceded by 11 and 12 the years before. His career average is 13 picks per season. So all homerism aside, let's be real here... Dalton has been around a full decade in the NFL, and clearly peaked about 5 seasons ago. Allen was a super-raw project, who is only entering his third season in the league and still has tons of potential to improve. Yet their numbers over the last 2-3 seasons have been remarkably comparable. That's without starting to consider Allen's running ability (especially in the Red Zone).

Agree with this statement completely. Josh Allen's running ability is deadly in the Red Zone and on 3rd Down. That is something you never want to take away, because that is his greatest advantage over other Quarterbacks in the NFL. Using him like a Running Back at other points of the game, I'm definitely not a huge fan of. You want to keep your QB from getting injured.

Injuries are a real thing. AJ Green missed a big chunk of 2016, half of 2018 and all of 2019. He's had problems with his hamstring, his toe, his ankle - all of which are extremely important to a WR. In his prime, Green was among the best WRs in the league. Today, he's basically a long-shot to ever get meaningful snaps on a football field again. John Brown isn't much younger, but he's healthy. Which makes all the difference in the world.

If he was targeting an O-Lineman, that rules out Round 2. We picked at 54 and the last OL player to go before us was Robert Hunt at 39. Beane stated they were targeting Zack Moss the entire time in Round 3, and actually tried to move-up for him. Also ruled out. Now Beane says he was discussing the trade with an NFC General Manager. He also states the pick was about 3-4 spots above ours. In Round 4, we picked at 128. OT Charlie Heck went only two picks before us. So if we were targeting him, that would mean we were discussing a trade up one spot with Philly. This doesn't fit. However, Detroit took OG Logan Stenberg 7 picks before us. And Chicago owned pick 125 (eventually traded to the Jets). This is a fit. In Round 5, there are several fits. We picked at 167. There are several NFC teams between us and when OC Nick Harris was picked at 160. It's also worth noting that Beane "wasn't planning" on targeting a QB this weekend, and picked Jake Fromm simply because of value on the board. This also suggests he was targeting something else, but it fell through. There are also fits in Round 6. We picked at 188. There were a handful of OL players picked in the early 180s (Hakeem Adeniji, Netane Muti and Michael Onwenu). There are also a group of NFC GMs in-between, including our counterpart the Panthers at 184. We ended up taking a kicker at that pick. Later in the round, OT Blake Brandel went a few picks before us. With the Vikings sitting in-between. Round 7 has Dustin Woodard going nine spots before us, with a handful of NFC teams in-between. So by process of elimination, I believe the player Beane was targeting is among this list: OG Logan Stenberg OC Nick Harris OT Hakeem Adeniji OG Netane Muti OG Michael Onwenu OT Blake Brandel OC Dustin Woodard

I'm really starting to question the "long-game" with this whole COVID-19 thing. Scientifically, there are only two ways to get something like this under control. The option that everybody would LIKE to see is a vaccine, which would obviously cause the least amount of sickness and death. Unfortunately, all medical experts say a vaccine isn't coming until 2021 at the very earliest. And there is no guarantee a vaccine will EVER be developed for this particular coronavirus. It's not something that people want to hear. But sadly it's the truth. So unless we are going to stop the world indefinitely (and possibly permanently), that leaves one option. The same way mankind has dealt with viruses, diseases and epidemics for the entire time they have been on this planet. And that is by Herd Immunity. Meaning that lots of people get sick. Some die. The majority recover and develop antibodies to keep the sickness from spreading. Life goes back to normal. There isn't ONE legitimate scientist that believes we can quarantine or social distance this thing into going away. The purpose of the lockdowns were always to SLOW the spread, so that we didn't overwhelm the hospitals and medical system. By having people avoid getting the virus, we are simply delaying the inevitable. Whether we open things back up in May, June, July, August, September or sometime in 2021, the virus will still be around and there will be a spike of new cases. It won't be until a significant portion of the population gets this and recovers, that things will truly be under control. Honestly, the smartest thing we can do is release the people who are young, healthy and face the lowest risk of death from COVID-19. Let them go back to work and be exposed to this thing. Keep the older population and those with pre-existing conditions in isolation, wearing masks and away from those who are out in the world. There will be a second wave, and there will be some people who die. But within 2-3 months, immunity will spread and this thing will be under control.

I honestly don't know why ANYONE is scared of this team. If anybody else was going into camp with Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham at the top of their QB depth chart, they would be a laughing stock. Not to mention, they have done absolutely nothing to upgrade their offensive skill positions (which were pretty bad last season). Because it's Bill Belichick, everyone assumes he just knows something everyone else doesn't.

Pretty much every NFL team puts draft prospects into tiers. Not a strict ranking of #1-300. The idea of BPA is that you never drop-down a tier, JUST so you can address a need. It's NOT that you always take your 105th ranked player over your 106th ranked player. Early in the draft, most GMs are going to have very strict separations in those tiers. For instance, Chase Young may be in a tier all of his own. A team going BPA would say, "Edge Rusher isn't my biggest need, but I'm drafting Young anyway because he's clearly the best player available." A team that doesn't go BPA may decide to take Jeff Okudah instead, because he really needs a cornerback. Or one of the top O-Line prospects, because the team struggled with blocking last year. Obviously as the draft goes on, teams won't have prospects ranked so strictly. By the 5th-6th-7th Round, you aren't talking about generational talents. You are talking about special teams players, practice squad developmental guys, and roster long-shots. Instead of 2-3 guys in a tier, a GM may have 10-20 guys ranked similarly. Which allows for more flexibility in filling specific roster spots. Beane is usually a BPA guy. But this weekend, he admitted that by the end of Day 3, he wasn't taking guys at the top of his board. He was taking positions that actually had a chance to make our roster.

Which is obviously the only reason he slipped into the 2nd Round. Before the Combine, most places had him ranked as the #2 defensive end behind Chase Young. In January/early February, it was rare to find a mock with him lasting past the Top 15. His supposed lack of speed/athleticism was accounted for in the latest rankings. He was still a Top 30 player and late first-rounder on most of the sites that I saw. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how good he turns out. We won't know that for 2-4 years. To grade a draft today, we can only look at: a) The projections being done by so-called experts b) Whether a GM was able to get maximum value out of that pick, rather than reach early for a player c) How well the team addressed roster needs Based on these three standards, Brandon Beane was able to get a 1st Round prospect about 25-30 spots later than he was expected to go. It also addressed one of the team's biggest future question-marks, since both current starters are over 30 years old.

The Bills drafted two guys last year (Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney), and really like both. They also signed Tyler Kroft, and watched him battle injuries the entire season. They obviously like him as well. This was also a very crappy year for Tight Ends in the draft. Cole Kmet was the highest ranked, and I think the Bears took him a round too early.

Wow. I haven't been on the message boards much this weekend, and was absolutely shocked that some Bills fans are upset with this pick. Defensive End was among our Top 2-3 biggest areas for improvement (I wouldn't really say we had huge needs anywhere). And based on the rankings by most experts, this was a massive steal. For some perspective, here are where some of the main sports sites ranked AJ Epenesa before the draft: NFL.Com: #45th Overall ESPN: #23rd Overall Fox Sports: #31st Overall CBS Sports: #34th Overall NBC Sports: #28th Overall Pro Football Focus: #20th Overall The Draft Network: #27th Overall Sports Illustrated: #24th Overall Sporting News: #20th Overall Draftek: #23rd Overall Averaging these 10 sites, Epenesa was around the 27th-28th ranked prospect in the entire draft. We got him at #54.

Always a bunch of teams that reach, or have players valued differently. There will be some really good players available to the Bills.