mjt328

The pre-draft analysis on Josh Allen was not wrong. Coming out of Wyoming, he absolutely was a high-risk prospect. His mechanics, footwork and overall accuracy were a mess. He couldn't read a defense, and his decision-making was very often questionable. His production was also less than impressive, even against poor competition. Honestly, there shouldn't be any shame from those who expected Allen to be a bust. At the time of the draft, he needed a complete overhaul of his game. And past history shows those kinds of QBs fail way more often than they succeed. Where Allen's critics failed, was with their post-draft analysis. The majority of people in Buffalo have seen this coming. It's not really a huge surprise. They have watched every single snap of Allen's career.... from his sloppy preseason debut backing up Nathan Peterman, to his hurdle of Anthony Barr, to the playoff breakdown in Houston, and finally to his MVP-like performance last Sunday. They have witnessed the gradual improvement in literally every aspect of his game, the detailed refinement of his throwing mechanics, his leadership and his relentless drive to get better. Even if his growth wasn't always showing in the stat sheet, most of us could see it with our eyes each week. These were things we never witnessed with JP Losman, or Trent Edwards, or EJ Manuel, or any other young guy we've drafted in the past 20 years. Bills fans have been laughed at and mocked for believing in Allen - mostly by online analytics sites, draft experts refusing to break from their original assessment of him, and fans who have only seen him play 2-3 times. We kept saying that if the Bills surrounded him with some talent on offense, it was just a matter of time before things took off. It feels good for the rest of the NFL world to finally see it too.

Great post, and explanation of how all the pieces of a defense work together. Levi Wallace may be our weakest starting defender. But is still usually a solid corner when compared to other DBs around the league. Sunday's game was a combination of factors, which allowed Miami to go after him.

Following the trend around the NFL, most QBs seem to be signing their extensions prior to their 4th season. Which means sometime next spring, assuming Allen continues playing like our franchise guy. The most notable exception is Dak Prescott, who is currently playing on the tag and causing all kinds of headaches for the Cowboys front office.

In my opinion, this game really comes down to coaching and how well our defense bounces back. The Rams offense really goes through Sean McVay, and his ability to confuse the defense with misdirection. If a defense can stay disciplined and get some pressure on Jared Goff, they have a really good shot of shutting down what is usually a high-scoring unit. Since McDermott became our coach, discipline has been a big strength for the Bills defense. But since Matt Milano/Tremaine Edmunds went out late in the Jets game, our defense hasn't looked anywhere close to the same. If we can't get back Edmunds (at least), they could really pick us apart. On the other side, the Rams were a solid (Top 10-15) defensive unit in 2019. They seem to be about the same this year. Aaron Donald is possibly the NFL's best player, and Jalen Ramsey is one of the league's best cornerbacks. Their pass rushers aren't really scary. Their linebackers are inexperienced. And outside of Ramsey, they are vulnerable on the back end. I truly think Josh Allen has raised his game (we kept hearing about this kind of progress in training camp), and this offense is for real. If we can limit the turnovers and stupid mistakes that seem to plague us frequently, the Rams are going to have a really difficult time slowing us down.

Yep. Subjective is the key word. For instance... if a quarterback they like and respect happens to throw a completed ball into traffic, they will give that QB a positive grade for "trusting his playmakers" and "threading the needle" between defenders. If a QB they don't like (such as Josh Allen) does the same thing, he will get docked for making a "turnover worthy" throw. Their writers also make biased articles/statements in order to gain clicks and attention. Buffalo fans are notorious for defending their players, so PFF likes to give them low grades and rile them up. One of their writers admitted as much last season, when he claimed that Duck Hodges was better than Allen. Bottom line. Allen threw for over 400 yards, 4 touchdowns, 70% completion percentage, 0 turnovers, had a 4th quarter comeback to win the game, etc. They had him ranked outside the Top 10 for Sunday's games. Nothing else needs to be said. Their grades are worthless.

The pass rush was very good on Sunday. As was our coverage on the back-end. As Bills fans, I know it makes us upset. But Ryan Fitzpatrick was fantastic yesterday, and there really wasn't much we could do about it. The pressure was there most of the game. Fitz was just getting his throws off anyway, and they were extremely accurate. Miami's receivers were making contested catches, regardless of how well our defenders had them blanketed. And when we brought pressure, Fitz quickly found the soft spot left in the zone coverage. The loss of Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano is going to get most of the blame this week. And I have a feeling Levi Wallace will also face plenty of criticism. Don't be surprised if people start saying our defense has taken a step back. But we should know better than anyone. Sometimes this just happens when you play against Fitz. There will be games when he looks absolutely unstoppable. A week later, he will go back to being a turnover machine. We ran into Fitz on the wrong day (for us). Fortunately, our offense was up to the task.

There will be a drop-off in LB play, but I think we should be OK. AJ Klein started over 40 games for the Saints over the past three seasons. He is a solid veteran. Not some scrub off the street. Tyrel Dodson is more of a concern since he lacks experience. But observers were impressed with him during training camp, and he played well to close out the Jets game. Not to mention, we have an excellent defensive coaching staff who will find ways to hide our weakness at linebacker. Miami isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse, and may be without their best WR on Sunday (Devante Parker).

I recall the NFL world drooling over Mayfield after his first few starts as well. Since then, it's been a pretty up-and-down journey. Defenses eventually adjust. Coordinators will discover Burrow's weaknesses, and then start taking away what he does best. Then it will be on Burrow to improve his game and continue developing. It's not about being successful as a rookie. It's about being successful over the long haul. Just look at Josh Allen. In his first season, he was an absolute All-Pro running the ball. But he struggled pretty badly as a passer. As a sophomore, coordinators switched things up and those running lanes weren't so wide open. Allen was forced to do more with his arm, because teams weren't just going to let him run wild every game. The times he struggled the most were against defenses who played heavy Cover 0 looks and crowded the box, and when opponents dared him to make plays downfield. One of best moments from Sunday was on Allen's touchdown pass to John Brown. He quickly recognized the Jets in Cover 0, audibled to a new play at the line, and then proceeded to make the scoring play. Allen wouldn't have made that play early in his career.

When your team has depth, talented players end up not playing. Sometimes they are even inactive. Our top two RBs are Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. So barring injuries to those guys, there would be absolutely no reason to put TJ Yeldon on the field for an offensive play. Meanwhile, Taiwan Jones is very good at special teams, so he will actually be needed each and every Sunday.

I'm a believer the HOF should only be for the BEST of the BEST. Peyton Manning - Absolutely Calvin Johnson - Definitely Charles Woodson - Probably Torry Holt - Possibly Reggie Wayne - Possibly Brian Waters - Possibly Zach Thomas - Possibly Patrick Willis - Possibly The other guys don't really stand out to me. Bennett was a vital piece to our Super Bowl teams, and certainly among the best linebackers in team history. But I definitely don't think he's Hall of Fame worthy. Same with guys like Darryl Talley and Kent Hull. The argument is certainly better for Steve Tasker. There probably wasn't a better special teams player in the history of the NFL.

Statistically, Josh did not have a good season last year. Nobody really contests that. The optimism surrounding him is based on how much he's progressed.... from college to his rookie year... then from his rookie year to his sophomore year... and now from his sophomore year to the early glimpses we've gotten in 2020. Considering how many QBs regress after hitting the pros, or after showing promise as rookies, it's exciting to see a guy gradually getting better. So far, Allen's early career-arc reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger. Early in his career, Big Ben was considered more of a game-manager. The Steelers were built on defense, defense, defense, and some really good coaching. The QB very rarely posted big numbers, and was really just there not to make mistakes. Of course, the key was that when his team really needed a play, Roethlisberger would almost always rise to the occasion. As time went along, the Pittsburgh defense became less dominant. And that is when focus started shifting to the offense, and Big Ben started putting up big stats.

Truthfully, his best bet for huge passing stats would probably be against Kansas City. Unless we are engaged in a shootout, our coaching staff is unlikely to keep the foot on the pedal with the passing game. It's just not Sean McDermott's style. And there aren't too many offenses in the NFL that I think can get the better of our defense for an entire game. Most teams are going to struggle to break 20 against us (we only allowed over 24 points once last season), and that isn't a great recipe for the QB to have big numbers. That's why I think the "300-yard game" talk is silly. There were a handful of games last year where Josh Allen was on pace to throw for 300-400 yards early in the game, but then we got the lead and started running out clock in the second half.

The majority of starting QB prospects are picked in the Top 10 of the draft. Many were the #1 pick overall. Which means they went to arguably the worst organizations in the entire NFL at the time. If Sam Darnold is going to be a great QB, he should be able to raise the play of the guys around him. You can see Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson often carrying the offenses around them. You can't see that from Darnold, Mayfield or Rosen.

It should tell you that a QB's success is more about the player himself, and coaching is only a small piece of the pie. Josh Allen has the same trainer as Sam Darnold, and started his career with much worse throwing mechanics. Yet in 2-3 years time, Allen has drastically improved his mechanics and become the better player, while Darnold is stuck in about the same place. And for everyone blaming the supporting cast, don't forget that Baker Mayfield also comes from the same draft class. The play-makers around him (Beckham, Landry, Chubb, Njoku) are arguably just as good as in Buffalo. And this is Mayfield's second year with those guys. Yet his play seemed to plateau in his rookie season.

Also, keep in mind the Bills wouldn't have gotten the chance to draft the top 4 guys without an additional trade-up. Ruggs, Jeudy, Lamb and Reagor were all off the board before pick #22.

Does anyone have stats/data on how rookie kickers perform in their first season, versus how they perform the rest of their career? I keep hearing about "first game jitters" and just to give Tyler Bass time to get acclimated into the NFL. I would be curious if that is a legit excuse, based on other successful kickers around the league. To me, kicking is kicking. If he was successful in college, he should be find in the pros.

Maybe he gets better with time, but my observation is that he needs some work reading the defender on those read-option plays. Without going back and watching the film, he seemed to make the wrong decision quite a few times. I'm also going to join the chorus of Bills fans who would like to see LESS designed runs for our QB. As much as Josh has improved as a passer going into his 3rd season, it's pretty clear that he hasn't fixed the ball security problem. Every defense in the league is going to target the ball when he's running, because of his fumbling problem. If a running back fumbled that much, our coaching staff would bench him, because those kinds of turnovers will eventually cost you games. The worst thing that can happen to a playoff-caliber team is the loss of its quarterback. The more you expose him to big hits, the great the chance for injury. Mobile QBs who aren't continuously sliding and avoiding hits (like Russell Wilson) often get hurt a lot (see Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson). And history shows they have much shorter careers. Don't get me wrong. I think using Josh as a runner in the Red Zone is fantastic. It's almost automatic points. And I don't believe they should discourage him from scrambling on plays where he can get the first down. But I do think we should greatly limit the DESIGNED runs. The risk just isn't worth what we are getting out.

In the New Orleans/Tampa Bay game, future HOF Drew Brees threw low on a similar pass to Emmanuel Sanders. The WR would have scored a touchdown, but instead had to go to the ground to catch it. The difference was that Brees was throwing 5 yards over the middle, and Josh Allen was throwing 30 yards over the middle. During the same game, future HOF Tom Brady twice missed WRs along the sideline at least as badly as Allen missed John Brown in the end zone. Both times they were wide open, and he threw about 10 yards over their heads without any pressure. And as a bonus... MVP Lamar Jackson attempted the exact same lateral (and failed just as badly) as Allen was crucified for during the Houston game. At some point, people need to stop ONLY picking at Allen's flaws and start judging him as a total package. No he's not the most accurate QB in the league, and probably will never be. But the positives FAR outweigh the negatives, and he continues to get better each season. He's ridiculously tough for opponents to defend, and most of the time that results in a WIN for the Bills.

I have no problem with Brian Daboll's coaching over the last 2 years. Our biggest problem has been a young/developing Quarterback, poor offensive line and lack of weapons. It's also very clear that Sean McDermott wanted to play it safe, and our offense frequently pulled back in the 2nd half with even the smallest leads. This year though, the bar has been raised much higher. To take the next step, we can't be barely scraping out wins against teams like the Jets and Dolphins. The O-Line is strong. The offense is loaded with weapons. Josh Allen is in Year 3, and needs to step himself into the Top 10-15 . If we struggle to score points in 2020, either Daboll or Allen will be on the hot seat. And rightly so.

The Chiefs probably have the best offense in the NFL. At this point, it would be insulting for us to even start comparing ourselves to them. However, the potential is there to attack defenses in a similar way. Kansas City uses great speed on the outside, which pulls coverage away from the middle of the field. When defenses are focused on stopping Hill/Watkins, that leaves Kelce open in the middle of the field. Put an extra man on the tight end, and you become vulnerable down the field. Patrick Mahomes is very tough to rattle with pressure and also deadly accurate on deep passes. So any strategy you use against him is risky. The pieces are available for the Bills to put defenses in the same predicament. On the outside, they can use Brown (similar to Hill) and Diggs (similar to Watkins) to draw defensive coverage down the field. Both guys are capable of demanding double-teams. Now, I certainly wouldn't put Knox in the same zip code as Kelce. But if defenses are forced to leave the middle of the field open, we can certainly take advantage with Beasley from the slot. Allen is also extremely dangerous as a runner. Try stopping all of this, and you start running out of defenders. The weapons are absolutely there. The key is Allen. If he cannot hit those downfield passes, teams won't need to respect Diggs/Brown on the outside and none of this matters. If he can't quickly diagnose coverages, defensive coordinators will just find ways to confuse him and keep him from finding the open guys.

I fully expect the Bills to open up the passing game. - The release of Patrick DiMarco signals the Bills are moving away from the power-run game, and into a spread system. We no longer have a true fullback on the roster, and I can't see too many scenarios where we don't want Diggs/Brown/Beasley on the field at the same time. - Our coaches usually scheme based on opponent, and the Jets defense is clearly weakest on its back-end. Especially after trading away Jamal Adams. We clearly have the advantage in the passing game, as opposed to trying to grind out yardage.

Excellent breakdown. We lost Shaq Lawson, Star Lotulelei and Jordan Phillips We gained Mario Addison, AJ Epenesa, Harrison Phillips, Quinton Jefferson and Vernon Butler. Plus a year of experience for Ed Oliver. It could certainly be argued that our D-Line has been upgraded since last year.

Historically, this coaching staff prefers easing rookies into action. I would be very surprised if Devin Singletary isn't the starter Week 1, and doesn't get the bulk of carries during the first month. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Zack Moss starts the season as the #3 back and plays behind TJ Yeldon. Ultimately, I believe the goal is for Singletary and Moss to become an equal 1-2 punch. Usage will depend on opponent and gameplan. Moss probably takes on more of the role Frank Gore had last season. Short yardage and goal line carries. Pounding the ball when trying to run out the clock. With that said, if Singletary starts showing a fumbling problem... it won't be long before he starts losing significant carries. I've been watching this sport for decades, and coaches do not put up with fumbling.

I watch every single Bills game, and I just don't see the "wild misses" from Josh Allen the media is always talking about. College? Absolutely. His rookie year? Sure. Last year, there were definitely times his ball placement could have been better. And he certainly struggled with overthrowing the deep ball. But it's not like he was totally missing receivers on easy throws. I feel like people see his 32nd ranked completion percentage (58.8%), and just assume he is inaccurate. But it's been also well established that Buffalo had the highest drop percentage in the league. Only six more completed passes, and Allen would have surpassed 60% completion on the year. Only ten more completed passes and he would have been higher than Tom Brady in completion percentage. Only 26 more completed passes (less than two per game) and he would have been in the top half of the NFL.

Barring a massive string of injuries, the Bills should win the division easily. - The Dolphins are in the midst of a rebuilding season. I think the Tua pick was a smart gamble, and they seemed to have a pretty good draft. But the roster is still years away from truly competing. In typical Fitz-fashion, they will be competitive in games they should be getting blown out, and then stupidly lose games they have a chance to win. It won't take long before fans are calling for Tua. And even if he plays well from the gate, all rookie QBs have their struggles. It's hard to see this team finishing above .500. - The Jets are stuck in the same "one step forward, two steps back" cycle, which plagued us for almost two decades. They had some positive momentum to finish 2019, but then lost their two best defenders (Adams and Mosley) for the season. I don't see any significant upgrades across the rest of the roster. At least not enough to notch them the additional 3-4 wins necessary to end in 1st place. I liked Sam Darnold coming out of college, but they have failed to surround him with anything decent and the offense is reportedly still struggling badly in training camp. Many are even considering this a lame-duck season for their head coach. - After 20 years of dominance, it's hard for anyone to discount the Patriots. But let's be honest here. The talent on offense is bone-dry. Does anyone really envision Cam Newton (who has struggled badly over the last few years) having more success with this offense than Tom Brady did? The Patriots often struggled to score in 2019. And they did virtually nothing to improve the situation for 2020. Even if Newton's best days weren't far behind him, his playing style simply does not match Josh McDaniels offense. The defense is going to be expected to carry the team, despite losing multiple starters (Hightower, Chung, Collins, Van Noy).