mjt328

If the Titans are forced to forfeit a game, it affects the entire NFL and the playoff picture. I think the league is going to do everything in their power to avoid that. My question is... at what point should they be forced to play the game with practice squad players and signings off the street?

I suppose they could consider pushing the Bills-Titans to Monday or Tuesday.... but the Bills-Chiefs is scheduled to be on that upcoming Thursday. You obviously can't play with two days rest.

Absolutely. The vast majority of "draft experts" wouldn't even know which top prospects to start reviewing, if it wasn't for discussions and buzz coming from the professional scouting community. Nobody even heard of Josh Allen, until the pro guys started talking him up. The sports media also loves talking about highly-touted picks that bust (such as Jamarcus Russell), and late-round picks that surprise and do well (such as Tom Brady). This creates the false narrative that GMs/pro scouts are fools, and don't know what they are doing - or that drafting is like throwing a dart blindfolded. The truth is, the pro scouts do an excellent job. Looking at a position like QB, they usually start each year with DOZENS of eligible prospects from all over the country. By the time the draft actually rolls around, that list has been narrowed down to about 5-6 guys who have a chance at being a successful starter in the NFL. That group further breaks down into 2-3 first round guys, and 2-3 riskier guys who are considered Day 2 prospects. Looking at NFL rosters, about 70-75% of the league's starting QBs are those guys originally pegged as "first round talents" and 90-95% are guys the pro scouts picked in the first two days. That's a huge hit rate.

In my opinion, we have an infinitely better team than the Jets, Dolphins, Broncos and Chargers. We should win all 4 of these. In my opinion, we have a significantly better team than the Patriots (x2), Raiders and Cardinals. We should win at least 2-3 of these. In my opinion, it's a toss-up against the Titans, Seahawks, 49ers (especially with injuries) and Steelers. We should win at least 1-2 of these. The only team I would clearly put us as underdogs is against the Chiefs. And I think we have a decent chance of winning that one too. Put it all together, and I think 10 wins is our floor. 13 wins is our ceiling. The most likely outcome is something in-between.

Scouting is about applying the known (stats, physical traits, film) and trying to project it into the future. It's not an exact science. It's an educated guess. As I've stated before, I don't think the draft experts necessarily "missed" on Josh Allen. All of the known information they had revealed a raw prospect with elite physical skills, but who needed tons of work on refining his mechanics. Quarterbacks are always risky. But even more so with major projects like Allen. Draft history is loaded with QBs who were fantastic athletes, but couldn't fix their footwork or couldn't learn to process a defense. EJ Manuel is a great example from right here in Buffalo. I believe he also had the drive to get better, but it just didn't happen for him. One of my friends is the brother of a scout on the Indianapolis Colts. We had a conversation during the 2018 offseason, regarding Kirk Cousins as a free agent and the upcoming QB draft. He stated that Internet analytics guys tend to lean towards the safer prospects (Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen) who have shown more success at the college level. But pro scouts tend to lean more towards guys with tremendous upside. Although guys like Allen are way riskier and take more time/effort to develop, the payoff is much higher if you happen to succeed. Hit on Mayfield and you have a playoff team. Hit on Allen and you have a Super Bowl team.

The rest of the schedule is pretty tough, outside of the Jets, Dolphins, Chargers and Broncos. The Bills just need to take it one game at a time., and I think they can definitely finish with 10-12 wins by the end of the season.

Great observations. I believe that success on Defense is very much dependent on the entire unit working together, as opposed to great individual efforts. One crack in the armor causes the coaches/players to try and compensate, which has then created problems in other places. I'm definitely starting to believe our problems start with the loss of Star Lotulelei, and his ability to occupy blockers up front. Harrison Phillips is clearly not back 100% from his ACL injury, and has been disappointing in replacing Star. In turn, this is exposing the weakness of our MLB Tremaine Edmunds, who really isn't a great between-the-tackles run stopper. Our struggles against the run make it easier to find success with play action, misdirection and quick passes. This week, our coaching staff seems to be focusing on the "discipline" end and hoping things can be fixed with better gap integrity. If our defense gets bowled over again, I think we go out and sign a 1-tech DT.

If the refs made this call in the 1st Quarter, nobody would have questioned it. There was clearly contact after 5 yards that impeded the WR, with the pass in the air. And the defender wasn't playing the ball. The main reason people hate the call, is because this was a clear situation where the refs ended up deciding the game. Nobody likes that. If the official decides to hold the flag, the Bills lose. If he decides to throw it, the Bills probably have a 90% chance of winning. My opinion is that penalties should be the same regardless of situation. You call a game the same on the first play, as you do on the last. You call a game the same in the regular season as you do in the playoffs and Super Bowl. Also, the claims that Los Angeles benefited from several other bad calls is valid. There is a good chance the comeback never happens without aid from the refs. Many have elaborated on the ridiculous INT call, which flipped the game's momentum. But there is also visual evidence in another thread that Aaron Donald grabbed the QB's facemask on the 4th Quarter fumble. How does the game change if they call a facemask on the Rams, instead of a turnover (and then ensuing 15 yard penalty on Allen)?

Very pleased how the Bills have been versatile in their attack this year. Week 1 there was a heavy dose of designed QB runs, read-option and play action. In the passing game, we seemed to spread the ball around to each of the top 3 receivers. Week 2 we attacked the defense deep over and over, mostly with our outside guys. I don't think we had any designed QB runs. Week 3 we seemed to focus on mismatches against our Tight Ends, and in the slot against Beasley. Our running game also broke off some nice plays.

Seems to me Daboll is using our tight ends in a hybrid/H-Back role. We have also been going heavily on 4-WR sets during our first three games. So while I'm seeing calls for the Bills to grab one of the NFL's top pass catching TEs (like Zach Ertz), you need to consider our current scheme and the way the Bills are using that position. I'm not sure every pass catching TE is capable of filling the H-Back role. And you need to question dishing out $8-10 million per year on a position that will likely be 4th-5th in the receiving pecking order. You simply can't have Pro-Bowl talents at every position, and stay under the salary cap. The Bills now have plenty of mismatches in the passing game, and I would rather save our cap space to keep someone like Matt Milano.

EDITED FOR NON-FOOTBALL CONTENT The chances that players were going to get this was always very high. Hopefully with the daily testing, they were able to catch and quarantine them quick enough to keep it from reaching too many teammates.

This was my big concern with the NFL. Unlike baseball, you can't just push missed games into a double-header. Even a single cancelled game could have disastrous consequences on the entire season.

It's premature to count out Lamar Jackson. We are talking about ONE GAME against the defending Super Bowl champions. At the same time, I can understand the skepticism from his critics. Jackson is a very unique talent, far unlike anyone else in the NFL. To help him out, Baltimore has built a brilliant offensive scheme that perfectly matches Jackson's skills, and looks different than any other system in the league. To this point, it's been extremely successful. Most of the time it's been unstoppable. Now... 100 years of NFL history tells us that coaches will eventually adapt to what Baltimore is doing. Coordinators will study what Tennessee did in the playoffs last year, and what Kansas City did last night. Teams in the NFC North will draft defensive talents to counter the Ravens lineup. It may take another season or two, but at some point the NFL will absolutely find a solution to this attack. What happens after that will depend on Jackson's continued development. When teams figure out how to keep him inside the pocket, can he still make the necessary throws? Now I don't think he needs to become a pure "pocket passer" to be successful. There are lots of QBs who use their athleticism to extend plays outside the pocket. Josh Allen is a perfect example. But while Allen is proving he can succeed when defenses take away the run, we haven't quite seen that kind of response from Jackson yet.

Going back through the course of the game, I think our linebackers (Edmunds and Milano) were gassed by the 3rd/4th quarter. Once you start getting fatigued and tired, it becomes more difficult to maintain your lanes, get off blocks and make tackles. The Rams require the LBs to be EXTREMELY disciplined, so they are not getting caught with all the motion and misdirection. Part of me wonders if they were not in proper game condition after missing Week 2, and then going half-speed in practice all week. I'm also starting to think the Bills are missing Star Lotulelei more than anyone anticipated. The only 1-tech on our roster is Harrison Phillips, and he doesn't seem to be the same guy as before the ACL tear. Our struggles on the D-Line at the point of attack are allowing blockers to reach our second level, which allows for big runs. That in turn, opens up play action for the passing game. If the same problems persist, I wouldn't be surprised if we bring in some 1-Tech DTs off the street.

Go back and watch last season, and you will understand Sean McDermott's philosophy. It's not about getting lots of sacks. It's not about getting lots of turnovers and causing chaos. It's about avoiding big plays. Letting things happen in front of the defense. And then being disciplined enough to stop offenses before they can get first downs and move into scoring position. Lots of Bills fans seem to struggle with the concept that not every Defensive scheme in the NFL is the same. They want Tremaine Edmunds to be a between-the-tackles thumper at MLB. They want Star Lotulelei to be a penetrating DT who racks up impact plays. Apparently now we want Micah Hyde to be playing man-to-man coverage. But these are not their roles in McDermott's scheme. There is NO DOUBT that our defense is not doing it's job so far in 2020, and McDermott needs to figure out why. Maybe too many guys are playing injured. Maybe the loss of Lotulelei is way bigger than we anticipated. But I don't believe it comes down to his scheme, or players like Hyde and Edmunds playing out of position. We have seen enough over the last few seasons to know this team CAN play great defense, and do it against good QBs.

Stats are a horrible way to judge individual defensive players, regardless of position. The last few years, teams have generally respected our secondary. Which means they don't test us deep. Which means not so many interceptions and passes defensed for our safeties. Those stats don't mean anything.

An ELITE defense can sometimes struggle against really strong offenses, and even have bad games sometimes. It happened to us last year as well. This unit has struggled BADLY two weeks in a row. Worse than at any point in 2019. Despite the score in the first half, the Rams were moving the ball well the entire game. In the second half, they were getting almost no resistance. If the coaching staff had left more than 25-30 seconds left on the clock, I would have been extremely nervous this defense could stop them from getting into field goal range. Maybe it's a combination of things. Injuries. No help from the crowd noise. The retirement of Lorenzo Alexander. The free agent losses of Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips. Star Lotulelei opting out. Better competition. I don't know for sure. But it's hard to believe we went from a Top 5 unit last year, to a team incapable of stopping anyone or anything. Hopefully we get it straightened out soon.

Keyshawn's argument.... "Russell Wilson came into the season as the MVP favorite..." Uh ok... Not a slam against Wilson (who is also playing fantastic), but what does that have to do with anything? Also, you could tell that Orlovsky actually has been watching the Bills play. And Keyshawn clearly has been watching his twitter feed.

I'm willing to concede that our weak schedule in 2019 played some factor. But not to the level we are seeing so far this season. Great offenses make plays, regardless of how good a Defense is. But we had no answers for them yesterday. We couldn't stop the run. We couldn't stop the pass. We couldn't get pressure. We couldn't tackle. We were leaving guys wide open all over the field. Something isn't right, and McDermott needs to figure it out.

9 times out of 10, the offensive PI against Kroft is not called either. That play could have easily been called a completion to Kroft with no penalty, and nobody would have batted an eye. Not only does it kill the momentum the Rams were building up. But it also gives us a 1st down at midfield, with an 18 point lead. Very possible that without that play, the comeback never even happens.

The refs made massive game-changing calls in both directions. Both teams would have had plenty of reason to be upset. Since the Bills ended up winning, the Rams are going to have the most reason to complain. In my opinion, the Defensive Pass Interference call at the end of the game was iffy. Sometimes the refs call those. Sometimes they don't. No, it wasn't flagrant PI. But it also wasn't a totally phantom call. There absolutely was contact by the CB after 5 yards, with the ball in the air. On the flip-side, the 3rd quarter interception WAS a terrible call. And the offensive PI they called along with it was just as ticky-tack as the Defensive PI call at the end of the game. Another referee crew probably would have kept the flag in their pants AND called it a catch by Tyler Kroft. That play was a HUGE momentum changer, when the Bills still had an 18 point lead. And after 20+ years of watching Tom Brady scream and cuss at the refs, I will never be OK with any Quarterback getting an "unsportsmanlike conduct" flag for complaining about a bad call. I don't care what Josh Allen said. Nobody should get favoritism from the officials. That was another big one they should have let go.

I wanted to give the Defense another week before sounding the alarm bells, and see if they could find a way to right the ship. Yesterday was a HUGE disappointment to me. Their inability to stop anything (run or pass) was pathetic, and almost led to the most epic Bills collapse in the last 20 years. Which is really saying something. As excited as I should be about the win, I'm actually pretty depressed with how this unit is performing. There seem to be multiple reasons people believe they are struggling. Injuries. Personnel changes. Lack of crowds. Honestly, I don't care what the excuse is. The coaching staff needs to get this fixed. ASAP. We were one-dimensional last year. It forced us to scrape out every victory by the seat of our pants, and ultimately led to an early exit from the playoffs. We started 3-0 last year too. If we want better results in 2020, then we need to be playing well on both sides of the ball.

It's a little bit early to get down on our defense. The Jets were completely shut-down, with the exception of a single busted play (Tremaine Edmunds makes that tackle, and they punt) and what I would consider "garbage time" points at the end of the game with the clock ticking down. If you really think about it, their offense wasn't able to mount even one strong drive the entire game. Against the Dolphins, both Fitzpatrick and the receivers played absolutely fantastic. The pass rush was strong, and quickly in the QB's face. The coverage wasn't bad, considering we were down both of our starting linebackers. Sometimes there just isn't anything you can do, and the opponent just makes plays. This was a perfect storm that worked against us. This defense has been among the NFL's best for 2-3 years running, and has a lot of pride in that fact. Don't be surprised if (assuming we are healthy again at LB) this unit has a bounce-back game on Sunday. At this point, I would be surprised if Matt Milano and Taron Johnson don't play. Tremaine Edmunds hasn't hit anyone all week, and is a MLB nursing a shoulder injury. I'm not so sure about him...

What stands out to me? Almost all the young QBs are athletic and can make plays outside the pocket. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray. I've been watching the NFL for 30 years, and this is the first time I've seen the "pure pocket passers" fade into the background. The traditional mold definitely seems to be breaking.

My goal for this season is 10-11 wins, the AFC East title and one playoff win. But by next year, I fully expect us to be in serious Super Bowl contention.