mjt328

This is a case where it's important to watch the game, and not just look at the box score. The ONLY reason we held the Chiefs to 26 points was because they decided to run it down our throats. Even when we pulled within 6 points, I never had the confidence our Defense could come up with a stop.

Not sure if it's due to injury, but I've noticed Josh Allen's mechanics falling off since the Raiders game. His throwing motion is definitely off, and it's resulting in numerous missed throws. The offense is also struggling because our run blocking is pathetic, which also consistently puts us into 3rd and long situations. Add in the injury to John Brown, which is hurting our ability to stretch the field.

The Bills don't have the cap space to make significant moves for veteran players. What they really need are the young guys we drafted (Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Ed Oliver) to start being difference makers, instead of massive liabilities. The same goes for Cody Ford on the offensive side. Consistently good teams like the Patriots and Steelers are able to lose players due to injury and Free Agency, and keep on rolling, because they draft well and the guys on the bench always step up when called upon. I'm becoming increasingly concerned about the long-term outlook for many of our top draft picks, which is not a good look for the future.

So let's put this all together. The Titans have supposedly been quarantining since last Tuesday. That is a period of 8 days without contact with their teammates. Yet two players who tested negative for the last full week, are now suddenly testing positive. Clearly, the incubation period here is a lot more than 4-5 days. This tells me, that all of the NFL's testing protocols are pretty much worthless. - The Vikings haven't gotten a positive test (yet) since their game with the Titans, and were cleared to play on Sunday against the Texans. But how can we be sure none of the Vikings were actually infected for that game, if it only took place 7 days after their game with infected players? - The Patriots had a positive test on Saturday (Cam Newton) and then a positive test on Wednesday (Stephon Gilmore). They quarantined Cam before the game against the Chiefs, but how many players could have tested negative and still had it? - The Bills now know they played against a guy who was positive with COVID 19 during the game. Doesn't this mean our players could be infected and spreading it for the next two weeks, even if they continue to test negative? Maybe I'm just skeptical at nature, but I just have a hard time believing these incidents are going to stay isolated. I was always worried the NFL would have a ridiculously tough time keeping this from spreading, and always had a tough time believing this season was going to finish as planned.

Russell Wilson, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers should be in a 3-way tie for MVP. The only reason people keep pushing Wilson, is because they feel like he has deserved it before and been overlooked.

The defense needs to get its act in gear. Hopefully the 4th Quarter against the Raiders was our wake-up moment. I keep hearing the excuse that defenses "all over the league are playing terrible this year." While this is true, the Bills are still playing at a below-average level compared to the rest of the NFL. We may have played the Rams, but we also played the Jets. We are 17th in the league in points allowed. We are 18th in the league in yards allowed per pass. We are 16th in the league in yards allowed per rush.

Hard to argue with that spot. Undefeated or not, there are some other really good teams in the NFL. In the AFC, the Chiefs should definitely be ranked #1. They are the defending Super Bowl champions, and have won most of their games pretty soundly. The Ravens have looked great against everyone except the Chiefs. That third spot is pretty close between the Bills, Steelers and Titans. In the NFC, I think the Packers look the best. They are closely followed by the Seahawks and the Rams. The 49ers would probably be in that discussion if not for injuries. The Bucs are creeping up the list, and the Saints still have time to turn it around. The good news is... I don't believe the Bills are playing anywhere close to their best on defense. If they can get that side of the ball hammered out, I think they can beat anyone on this list.

Very true. Expect Josh McDaniel to also be a really hot name (again), if the Patriots continue to be competitive without Tom Brady.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe an assistant coach like Daboll can get hired somewhere else in the middle of the year. The Texans will either need to roll with an in-house candidate for the rest of 2020, or get someone off the street.

Part of me wonders if the problem is something like this: 1. The Bills come out with a strong gameplan, and build a decent lead in the first half. 2. The opponent adjusts at halftime. Since the Bills are winning, they decide to keep things relatively the same. 3. Due to the adjustments, the offense suddenly looks flat and the defense lets up a score or two. 4. The Bills coaches make their own adjustments going into the 4th quarter, causing us to finish strong. The fact that we have won 14 of our last 21 games, tells me our coaching strategy/style is ultimately working out. The problem is that games which shouldn't be close, end up coming down to an onside kick. I think the best cure for this, is to build a bigger lead in the first half.

It's only a few games, but I don't think I've seen a WR play at this high of a level since Randy Moss in his prime. It's not just the ability to get open at will AND the draw-jopping catches. It's also the way he's raised the level of WR play all around him.

Don't be so sure. Unlike the Jets, I am starting to get the sense of an organization starting to move in the right direction. The 2019-2020 Dolphins very much remind me of the 2017-2018 Bills team, right after Beane/McDermott took over.

Brian Daboll is from the Belichick tree of coaching, and very much believes in switching up his attack dependent on the opponent. This is the first year he's had the talent to pretty much do whatever he wants. So far, we have only used our running backs sparingly. And we really haven't needed a strong running game yet. But I believe there will be a game soon, where the Bills go run-heavy. They are just waiting for the right matchup. Same with Josh Allen on designed runs. One an opponent starts dropping their guard, Allen will start taking advantage.

The first Titans player to test positive was on early morning Tuesday (September 29), at which point they totally closed the facility and quarantined everyone. The spread should have completely stopped at that point, assuming all protocols were done correctly. The fact that no Vikings players tested positive, suggests that all of the spreading almost certainly happened either late Sunday after the Tennessee-Minnesota game was over (September 27) or at some point on Monday at the facility (September 28). So even though positive tests were still popping up Sunday (October 4), the infections would have actually happened 6-7 days earlier. Putting this all together, the game against the Bills is October 11, which is 13-14 days after the spreading happened. The normal incubation period for Covid 19 has already bypassed. So again... as long as protocols have been followed, every player on the Titans roster who hasn't already tested positive should be in the clear. They will be down a number of players and coaches for Sunday, but they will have enough to field a full active roster and should have enough days to practice. I fully expect the game to happen.

I agree the Bills are having troubles in the 3rd Quarter. But technically, they only had the ball twice yesterday in the 3rd. And if not for the refs calling John Brown down at the 1-yard-line, we would have had a touchdown on the last play. Instead, we had a touchdown on the first play of the 4th.

Forgot about that. Better start rooting for Houston to win some games.

If the Titans are forced to forfeit a game, it affects the entire NFL and the playoff picture. I think the league is going to do everything in their power to avoid that. My question is... at what point should they be forced to play the game with practice squad players and signings off the street?

I suppose they could consider pushing the Bills-Titans to Monday or Tuesday.... but the Bills-Chiefs is scheduled to be on that upcoming Thursday. You obviously can't play with two days rest.

Absolutely. The vast majority of "draft experts" wouldn't even know which top prospects to start reviewing, if it wasn't for discussions and buzz coming from the professional scouting community. Nobody even heard of Josh Allen, until the pro guys started talking him up. The sports media also loves talking about highly-touted picks that bust (such as Jamarcus Russell), and late-round picks that surprise and do well (such as Tom Brady). This creates the false narrative that GMs/pro scouts are fools, and don't know what they are doing - or that drafting is like throwing a dart blindfolded. The truth is, the pro scouts do an excellent job. Looking at a position like QB, they usually start each year with DOZENS of eligible prospects from all over the country. By the time the draft actually rolls around, that list has been narrowed down to about 5-6 guys who have a chance at being a successful starter in the NFL. That group further breaks down into 2-3 first round guys, and 2-3 riskier guys who are considered Day 2 prospects. Looking at NFL rosters, about 70-75% of the league's starting QBs are those guys originally pegged as "first round talents" and 90-95% are guys the pro scouts picked in the first two days. That's a huge hit rate.

In my opinion, we have an infinitely better team than the Jets, Dolphins, Broncos and Chargers. We should win all 4 of these. In my opinion, we have a significantly better team than the Patriots (x2), Raiders and Cardinals. We should win at least 2-3 of these. In my opinion, it's a toss-up against the Titans, Seahawks, 49ers (especially with injuries) and Steelers. We should win at least 1-2 of these. The only team I would clearly put us as underdogs is against the Chiefs. And I think we have a decent chance of winning that one too. Put it all together, and I think 10 wins is our floor. 13 wins is our ceiling. The most likely outcome is something in-between.

Scouting is about applying the known (stats, physical traits, film) and trying to project it into the future. It's not an exact science. It's an educated guess. As I've stated before, I don't think the draft experts necessarily "missed" on Josh Allen. All of the known information they had revealed a raw prospect with elite physical skills, but who needed tons of work on refining his mechanics. Quarterbacks are always risky. But even more so with major projects like Allen. Draft history is loaded with QBs who were fantastic athletes, but couldn't fix their footwork or couldn't learn to process a defense. EJ Manuel is a great example from right here in Buffalo. I believe he also had the drive to get better, but it just didn't happen for him. One of my friends is the brother of a scout on the Indianapolis Colts. We had a conversation during the 2018 offseason, regarding Kirk Cousins as a free agent and the upcoming QB draft. He stated that Internet analytics guys tend to lean towards the safer prospects (Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen) who have shown more success at the college level. But pro scouts tend to lean more towards guys with tremendous upside. Although guys like Allen are way riskier and take more time/effort to develop, the payoff is much higher if you happen to succeed. Hit on Mayfield and you have a playoff team. Hit on Allen and you have a Super Bowl team.

The rest of the schedule is pretty tough, outside of the Jets, Dolphins, Chargers and Broncos. The Bills just need to take it one game at a time., and I think they can definitely finish with 10-12 wins by the end of the season.

Great observations. I believe that success on Defense is very much dependent on the entire unit working together, as opposed to great individual efforts. One crack in the armor causes the coaches/players to try and compensate, which has then created problems in other places. I'm definitely starting to believe our problems start with the loss of Star Lotulelei, and his ability to occupy blockers up front. Harrison Phillips is clearly not back 100% from his ACL injury, and has been disappointing in replacing Star. In turn, this is exposing the weakness of our MLB Tremaine Edmunds, who really isn't a great between-the-tackles run stopper. Our struggles against the run make it easier to find success with play action, misdirection and quick passes. This week, our coaching staff seems to be focusing on the "discipline" end and hoping things can be fixed with better gap integrity. If our defense gets bowled over again, I think we go out and sign a 1-tech DT.

If the refs made this call in the 1st Quarter, nobody would have questioned it. There was clearly contact after 5 yards that impeded the WR, with the pass in the air. And the defender wasn't playing the ball. The main reason people hate the call, is because this was a clear situation where the refs ended up deciding the game. Nobody likes that. If the official decides to hold the flag, the Bills lose. If he decides to throw it, the Bills probably have a 90% chance of winning. My opinion is that penalties should be the same regardless of situation. You call a game the same on the first play, as you do on the last. You call a game the same in the regular season as you do in the playoffs and Super Bowl. Also, the claims that Los Angeles benefited from several other bad calls is valid. There is a good chance the comeback never happens without aid from the refs. Many have elaborated on the ridiculous INT call, which flipped the game's momentum. But there is also visual evidence in another thread that Aaron Donald grabbed the QB's facemask on the 4th Quarter fumble. How does the game change if they call a facemask on the Rams, instead of a turnover (and then ensuing 15 yard penalty on Allen)?

Very pleased how the Bills have been versatile in their attack this year. Week 1 there was a heavy dose of designed QB runs, read-option and play action. In the passing game, we seemed to spread the ball around to each of the top 3 receivers. Week 2 we attacked the defense deep over and over, mostly with our outside guys. I don't think we had any designed QB runs. Week 3 we seemed to focus on mismatches against our Tight Ends, and in the slot against Beasley. Our running game also broke off some nice plays.