mjt328

Being "tuned-in" with OBD may give you an idea what players/positions they are interested in. It does not forecast who the pick is actually going to be. Not even Brandon Beane knows who they are going to pick. There are 53 players who will be taken before our first selection (barring a trade). For all anyone knows, Dugger could be gone in the 1st Round. The only thing clear about Beane's strategy, is that he's leaving himself open to go "almost" anywhere with his picks. At this point, we have zero needs in the starting lineup. Regardless of who we draft, that player is probably going to spend most of 2020 watching from the sidelines. We go with a RB, he will be in a timeshare with Devin Singletary. We go edge rusher, he will be 4th (at best) in the rotation. Dugger wouldn't start over Micah Hyde or Jordan Poyer, and it may take some time before he could even displace Siran Neal.

Quarterbacks always have the biggest bust potential. Nobody comes from college to the NFL completely ready to play the position (although this can sometimes be hidden by athletic talent and/or simplistic offensive scheme).

Depends on your definition of tanking. I don't believe that players lose on purpose, for any reason. Especially so they can be replaced by a younger player/draft pick. Even if a player isn't motivated by personal integrity (and some definitely are), they are most certainly motivated by things like money, stats and pride. All of those are affected when you purposely tank on the field. For coaches, it probably depends on the situation and how much job security they feel. Again, I don't think many coaches are willing to lose on purpose. But they may replace a veteran and play someone younger and inexperienced... realizing future seasons are more important than winning that week's game. If you really think about it, it's no different than benching starters in Week 17 to have a better chance in the playoffs. General Managers on the other hand, are always making moves with the future in mind. They may trade valuable/star players for future picks, or purge the roster of bloated contracts (exactly what Buffalo did when Brandon Beane came on board). But the GM cannot control what actually happens on the field. Which is why we ultimately went 9-7 in our "tank" season, made the playoffs, and required two additional trade-ups to get into the Top 10 and land Josh Allen. With all that said, the signs DO point that New England's front office is NOT trying to field the most competitive team in 2020 (and Bill Belichick is both coach and GM). They have made virtually no moves in free agency, lost several key pieces, and most importantly have not replaced Tom Brady at QB (at least not yet). Things could change and they could sign Cam Newton, Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston. But if they go into the season with Jarrett Stidham, it's clear they are definitely counting 2020 as a lost season. If they are targeting Trevor Lawrence, they will probably need to start trading players away though. I think the defense is too good for them to reach the #1 pick.

Just looked up the article on ESPN. Starting this season, the new CBA expands the practice squad from 10 to 12, and the game-day active roster from 46 to 48. It then allows teams to elevate 2 players from the practice squad to the active roster per week. So technically - yes, the roster will now carry 55 players instead of 53 players. But those last two guys are still eligible to get poached from other teams. This is good for stashing some extra late-round picks and undrafted free agents, but doesn't really help those back-end veterans who are looking to stick. Either way, the Bills don't have very many spots available. I have a tough time believing we keep all 7 picks. My guess is that Beane trades up once or twice. And even those guys we pick in the 2nd and 3rd will be playing backup for quite a while. Just noticed that I left off Tight End, but I think this position is likely pretty much set. Not much room for another body. The Bills generally carry 4 guys, and I see both Knox/Kroft as roster locks. They seem to like keeping one blocking specialist, which for the time-being is Lee Smith. They also seem to like Tommy Sweeney's potential. So right now, Jason Croom and Nate Becker on are on the outside looking in.

With the draft flying around the corner, most of us are looking at the team's biggest needs. But I thought it would be interesting to see how many roster spots we can legitimately fill with rookies. I was surprised how tough it will be to cut-down to 53 spots this year. Barring trade/injury, I consider the following starting players to be roster locks: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary, Patrick DiMarco, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain, Jon Feliciano, Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, AJ Klein, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre White, Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Steven Hauschka and Reid Ferguson. That comes to 26 players. There are also several backups that I expect to be guarantees, either because of their value to the team or because their contract makes it extremely tough to cut them: Spencer Long, Ryan Bates, Daryl Williams, Quinton Jefferson, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler, Tyler Matakevich and Siran Neal. The Bills must carry a punter, whether that is Corey Bojorquez or someone else. Since they haven't added a veteran QB, I expect Matt Barkley to stick. Tyler Kroft's restructured contract pretty much guarantees he will stick. That is 11 additional depth guys, bringing the total to 37 players. If I am correct, this would leave only 16 roster spots technically up-for-grabs. Let's take a look at these positions, and who would be forced out if we draft someone: Quarterback Highly unlikely we keep more than 2 on the active roster. Not sure if Davis Webb has practice squad eligibility, but that probably determines whether he sticks as the #3 guy or if we replace him with a Day 3 draft pick. Running Back Currently, TJ Yeldon is the only "veteran" RB in the locker room. Which is something this particular coaching staff seems to want. Taiwan Jones is probably safe because of his role as a special teams gunner. If we carry 4 backs and draft someone, that probably pushes Christian Wade back to the practice squad. Wide Receiver Andre Roberts is our only return specialist. Duke Williams is our only WR with good size. Isaiah McKenzie is our gadget player. If we carry 6 WRs and draft someone, that pushes one of these guys off the roster - and that's without even considering Robert Foster, Nick Easley and Ray-Ray McCloud. Offensive Line I consider 8 O-Linemen above to be roster locks. And that is without counting Ty Nsekhe, who technically could get released without much dead cap. If we draft anyone, we can probably say goodbye to Ike Boettger and Victor Salako. Defensive Line We are completely set at tackle, so say goodbye to Vincent Taylor. If we draft an edge rusher, that would likely cause us to cut Trent Murphy and push Darryl Johnson back to the practice squad. Just can't see us carrying more than 8 on the active roster. It's unlikely Jonathan Woodard and Mike Love make it. Linebacker Vosean Joseph was showing promise during training camp before getting hurt. If we add someone, then likely Corey Thompson, Tyrel Dodson and Del'Shawn Phillips get cut. Defensive Backs I considered 4 CBs to be locks, without even counting Josh Norman or EJ Gaines. It's unlikely we carry more than 6 guys here. So wave goodbye to Cam Lewis. At backup safety, they seem to like Jaquan Johnson and brought back Dean Marlowe. Both are expendable if we draft someone.

Trading up is almost definitely going to happen. Almost all of the roster spots are already filled with good players. Even without the draft, we are going to be pressed to put together 53 guys without being forced to release valuable veterans or promising prospects. We simply don't have enough room for all of these picks on the active roster. And you really don't want your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th Round guys being pushed to the practice squad, because they will almost certainly get snatched up by other teams.

If Reid is correct (and the contract language was changed after the vote), that is a ridiculously shady move by the NFL owners and should absolutely invalidate the CBA. However, you shouldn't use something like this to make blanket statements about anyone. Being rich and successful does not make someone evil, greedy or untrustworthy. Many billionaires are extremely generous and giving.

I don't believe RBs like Derrick Henry get better late in the game because of rhythm. I believe he gets better because the defense gets worn down trying to tackle him. Years ago, this was a common strategy for coaches and offensive coordinators. Keep pounding the ball (establish the run) with a big/powerful back, even if you are only getting 2-3 yards per carry. Because once you hit the 4th Quarter those carries will often become 4-5 yards per carry. Tennessee is one of the few teams applying this principal in today's NFL. I think Sean McDermott/Brian Daboll often tried to establish the run last year, using Frank Gore to close out games. But by the end of the year, it was Gore who was out of gas by the 4th Quarter. Not the opposing defense.

There are SO MANY things that could change in the next few weeks, much less the next couple months. Pretty much every doctor and health "expert" is making predictions based on the very limited information available right now. People need to remember this strand of coronavirus just popped onto the world scene about 3 months ago. And most of that time, data was being suppressed and manipulated by a secretive communist government. All these predictions out there may be based in science. But until more solid information comes in about this virus, even the most intelligent people in the medical field are just guessing. For instance, several of the top U.S. health officials have stated in the last 2 days that predicted death rates from COVID-19 were EXTREMELY overblown. There were some models anticipating more than 2 million Americans dying from this. Now they are talking about the number being closer to 20,000 across the entire nation (as I type this, the current number is still under 1,500 people). As I stated in another thread, the true concern about this virus is about overloading the medical capacity of the country. Not enough hospitals, doctors, ventilators, masks, testing kits, etc. The goal right now is to slow the spread and buy some time. There are already efforts being made to improve capacity in the area of ventilators and masks, which will mean less deaths. As we get more testing kits, that means a greater ability to identify and quarantine those who are infected. There are also a few promising medical treatments, which will decrease the number of serious cases across the country.

At this point, Buffalo could lose almost it's entire starting O-Line and still field a solid unit. - Ty Nsekhe/Daryl Williams both have significant starting experience at both Tackle spots - Spencer Long has significant experience starting at both guard and center - Ryan Bates is young and doesn't have starting experience. But he's showed promise sliding in at multiple spots.

Reports are that O'Brien refused to take offers for DeAndre Hopkins from any AFC team, because he didn't want to trade him in-conference. If true, I would imagine the same thought would apply to DeShaun Watson. Also, the conspiracy theory makes no sense. O'Brien is currently the GM and Head Coach of the Texans. That's a pretty enviable/high-profile position. Very few coaches have that kind of power within their organization. Why would he give that up, so he could purposely get fired, then return to the Patriots as a lowly coordinator?

Where the roster stands today... yes, it is a big need. Maybe I wouldn't classify it as a "huge" or "glaring" need, since we do have a legitimate starter in Devin Singletary. But in today's NFL, you really need to be sitting at least two-deep with that position. The good news is, Running Back is the easiest position in the league to fill. This year's draft doesn't have anyone elite. But it's pretty solid on Day 2. Even without a 1st Round Pick, it's very likely that one of the top 2-3 prospects falls to us at #54. And if we decide to go in a different direction in the 2nd Round, there will still be very good options available in Round 3. You want a veteran to compete with TJ Yeldon for the third spot? There are still some decent vets on the market like Carlos Hyde and Lamar Miller, who are under 30 and have rushed for 1000 yard seasons in this league.

It's not that black and white. Each day the country remains on total shut-down inches us closer to another great depression. Businesses closing down. People with no jobs or income, eventually resulting in losing their homes and being unable to feed their families. I keep hearing people say that concerns over the economy are selfish and greedy. I think that attitude is very short-sighted. I also believe that some Americans are significantly overestimating the government's ability to feed and take care of them, if/when this whole thing crashes down. Families may get a $2000 stimulus check once or twice. Six to nine months from now, I seriously doubt it. Although a significant economic downturn is pretty much unavoidable at this point, the magnitude and length will depend on multiple other factors. And even if society doesn't return to normal 100% in the next few weeks/months, there are ways we can gradually get there. And there are ways we can be creative to simultaneously keep businesses moving, and still protect the people most at risk. As I said in another post, the concern about this virus isn't that everyone is just going to suddenly drop dead if they go back onto the streets. When kept under control, the world is seeing roughly 5 percent require serious hospitalization. That means that 95 percent of people will be fine, and our goal is just making sure they don't infect those in the other category. As more testing kits are created, the easier it will be to determine who is infected and get them into quarantine. Even if we don't get a vaccine until next year, there are other pieces that can fall in place to help. The biggest problem is increasing medical capacity. Meaning more beds and ventilators for patients, and masks for doctors. There are major steps being taken right now to fix all of these problems. If some treatment drugs prove effective, we may be able to decrease the 5 percent to 4, 3, 2, etc. Less people requiring hospitalization, means less overload and a better chance people ultimately survive.

They have, just like with any sickness or disease. But the number of deaths among the young/healthy is very rare.

Like I said, there are scenarios that could drastically improve our situation over the next few months. - If doctors can discover treatment drugs that work - If the virus turns out to be seasonal - If we succeed in drastically increasing the medical capacity There are scientists and medical experts on both sides of the fence, and all admit they cannot be sure which way this ultimately goes. My attitude is to hope and pray for the best.

One advantage we have over the Spanish Flu, is that younger/healthy people do have an extremely high recovery rate with this virus. This thing is almost exclusively going after the elderly, and those over 60-65 with pre-existing conditions. The 1918 epidemic killed people of all ages, including children and young adults (as you pointed out). This should make it easier/quicker for humans to develop herd immunity. We can feel safer about sending younger/healthy people out into the world, without being afraid they will get it and start dropping dead everywhere.

Not completely subjective. You can use stats to show the following: - Allen improved in completion percentage and short-game accuracy from 2018 to 2019 - Allen ran less and stayed in the pocket more from 2018 to 2019 - Allen had less turnovers over the last 11 games than during his first 5 - Allen hit on a higher percentage of deep throws in his last 4 games, than during the first 12 games It's subjective to say this guarantees improvement next year, but it should give us some optimism.

I've been reading/listening to dozens of doctors and health experts. Nobody knows for sure how long this will last, because they are going by only 2-3 months worth of data on a virus that is totally new to the world. And unfortunately, the country that has been going through this the longest (China) was very secretive at first - so it's unclear whether the data they are putting out is reliable. The next few weeks will hopefully tell us a lot. - If they can be believed, China has supposedly hit the downside of this, and the country is gradually returning to work. The world will be watching to see if they get a second-wave once their citizens leave quarantine and start getting around each other again. - How well will the U.S. efforts to slow down infections work? And how much progress can we make in improving the country's medical capacity in that amount of time? The unique thing about this virus, is that it doesn't actually have an extremely high death rate... IF the sick can get proper hospital care. The problem (as can be seen in Italy) is that it's extremely contagious, and if thousands get sick at the same time, the hospitals simply can't handle everyone. - Is this strand of the virus seasonal? If it is, the spring and summer months should give us additional time to prepare for another outbreak next year. - At best, a vaccine is several months away. But there other drugs already being tested which hopefully can treat the symptoms and decrease the number of serious cases requiring hospitalization. Like with other viruses, there is also an expectation that humans will gradually develop a level of herd immunity. The recovery rate of young/healthy people who get this is very high. The key is all about NOT overloading the current medical system. Hospitals, beds, doctors, ventilators, etc. Even if society doesn't get back 100% to normal immediately in the next few weeks, it's very possible that we can get there gradually. For instance, let the recovered/young/healthy get back to work, while continuing to have strict quarantine rules and social distancing for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Yes, there are lots of doomsday predictions out there. But there are also glimpses of hope. I find it easier to take this day-by-day, and hope that everything turns out for the best, rather than fearing the worst.

Here is the way I see it... Following Josh Allen's rookie season, the biggest gripe among every critic was that: a) He missed too many SHORT throws b) He was mostly a scrambler, and didn't do enough with his arm So in the offseason, Allen worked diligently on fixing the weakest parts of his game. Immediately (even during Preseason and Week 1), you could already see the vast improvement in Allen's accuracy and short passing game. You could also see the focus Allen made to become a pocket passer, and to not take off running at every sign of pressure. But over the course of the first 4-5 games, a new problem emerged: a) He was turning the ball over too much So the coaches clamped down, and Allen started being more careful with the ball. Over the final 9-10 games, Allen had less turnovers than almost every other QB in the NFL. So the narrative once again switched, and suddenly Bills fans became extremely concerned with: a) Inaccuracy on his DEEP ball Just for arguments sake, I'll ignore the fact that Allen started hitting some nice deep passes during the final quarter of the season (which he did). The two against the Patriots were among his best throws all year. My confidence in Allen comes from the inescapable FACT that every time he has started getting a reputation for a bad habit/trait, he has gotten a laser focus on getting better in that area. And each time, it has worked. I fully expect Allen to put an emphasis on his deep ball this offseason, along with his penchant for fumbles while scrambling.

Don't forget the Bills don't have a 1st Round Pick anymore, so they don't need $8-10 million for rookies. Also, if they see a player they really want, they could make a cut somewhere (Trent Murphy is a popular cut choice). I agree that we need to be smart and careful, because there are players with expiring contracts coming up in future years. But we don't HAVE TO sign these guys to extensions right now. Tre White will have his 5th Year Option activated, putting him under contract for 2021 as well. Nothing stopping us from letting Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano play out their rookie contracts, and then extending them in the offseason. It may cost more in the long-run, but it may be a strategy to help add other players this season.

The O-Line overall was average last year (which was a huge step-up from 2018). I don't think we should be concerned about this unit. We haven't had any major upgrades. But if they perform exactly the same as last season, we will be OK. They won't be dominating anyone because of blocking. But blocking also won't be the primary cause for us losing games. Our biggest weak spot in 2019 was Right Tackle. Some of this was because of Cody Ford struggling as a rookie. Part of it was because of Ty Nsekhe getting hurt. The rest of the guys (Dion Dawkins, Quinton Spain, Mitch Morse and Jon Feliciano) are solid. Not All-Pros. But solid NFL starters. They have moments where they get beat, but for the most part are a reliable unit. We also have very good depth. Nsekhe, Spencer Long and Ryan Bates are each capable of stepping into a starting position without much drop-off. If Ford takes a step up in his sophomore season (which is the case for lots of players), then I think we can jump to an above-average O-Line.

Very true on both fronts. Old runners fall of a cliff quickly. In my opinion, the best way to build a backfield is to draft someone in Rounds 2-3 (this is the sweet spot for getting solid value) at least every 2-4 years. You always want to have two young guys splitting time, rather than count on a single workhorse. And when Free Agency eventually comes up, don't get emotionally attached to the fan favorites. Realize they can be replaced. The Bills should be seeking an RB in the draft this year to pair with Devin Singletary. Rookies at the position can often come in Year 1 and be very effective, especially in a timeshare. Jonathan Taylor and JK Dobbins are some options usually mocked in the 2nd Round this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, Cam Akers, Eno Benjamin and AJ Dillon are some guys who would likely be available in the 3rd.

I've been mostly against the idea of adding Gordon. But if we can get him on a 1-year $5 million deal, then I would be OK with it.

If it was just spending Terry & Kim Pegula's money, nobody would worry about it. Go ahead and throw $10 million per year at Melvin Gordon. But because of the salary cap, overspending will eventually catch up to you. Maybe not this year. Maybe not even next year. But somewhere down the line. The dumb money you threw at one player who failed to contribute, will ultimately result in you being forced to cut/let go a player that does contribute. In today's NFL, avoiding big money to Running Backs should be "Cap Rule 101." No position breaks down faster after the age of 25 than RB (Gordon is 26). And rookie RBs taken in Rounds 2-3 frequently outperform the high-paid vets. Instead of wasting big bucks on free agents, RB is a position that you should just plan on drafting a new guy on Day 2 every couple years. Rinse and repeat. I also think the gap between Gordon and Carlos Hyde is much smaller than you think. Hyde is older (which should factor in), but in many ways he actually played better than Gordon last year.

Jared Goff is certainly part of the problem. But the team would still be in deep cap trouble, even if Goff was playing really well. And if it wasn't for that terrible no-call against the Saints, the Rams wouldn't have even gotten to the NFC Championship game. I always hated the Rams approach. Thanks to their cap situation and lack of draft capitol, it may be 2-3 more seasons before they are even back into playoff contention. Personally, I prefer the New England approach. It's not about amassing a group of superstars, and making one desperate shot at the trophy. It's about building a cohesive and consistent team that can compete every single year, regardless of injuries, free agency, etc. If you can constantly field a team that wins 70-75% of your games for 10-15 years straight, odds are that you will eventually get a real shot at the trophy.