mjt328

Bills 27-10 Buffalo is clearly the better team from top to bottom. It shouldn't be close, but we still haven't seen if this offense can pile up enough points to make it a blowout.

Let's watch how the season actually plays out. Then we can make a call about where this team stands. Going in, these are the milestones I expect to hit in order to consider 2020 a successful season: - At least 10-11 wins - AFC East Division Title - Win at least one playoff game However, I'm not going to draw a line in the sand. What if there are key injuries? What if we somehow win 12 games and it isn't enough to take the AFC East? It's also premature to blame a player or position until we witness it as a liability. Right now, I think our team is set for a playoff run.

Don't get me wrong. Zach Ertz would be a fantastic addition. But I'm curious to see how this offense looks to start the season. We may not really need him. - Addition of Stefon Diggs - Drafting Zack Moss to replace aging Frank Gore - Drafting two good-sized WRs in Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins - Not to mention a year of experience for Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney at TE All of these factors, plus hopefully another step in development for Josh Allen - and I think we may be good enough to score quite a few points on offense. We really didn't struggle in the Red Zone last year. Our biggest problem came between the 40s, and drive-killing mistakes.

It's not all about targets and catches. It's about keeping pressure on the defense, and making it impossible for them to defend everybody. Teams are going to have a very difficult time taking away John Brown deep down the sideline, Stephon Diggs up the seam, Cole Beasley over the middle.... and still managing to keep tabs on our RB, TE and scrambling QB.

1. Cole Beasley is a unique weapon to our offense, since he excels from the slot. 2. Our rookie receivers haven't shown anything, except in practice yet. 3. We need depth, due to possible injuries. 4. Back-end guys like Duke Williams and Robert Foster disappointed in games much of last year. 5. The Bills are ready to contend. We don't need to be getting rid of valuable pieces of the team for draft picks.

This is all being blown out of proportion. It doesn't sound like Chris Brown was fired. He was temporarily banned for breaking a rule, and will be back. As a former news reporter, I certainly believe in the rights of a free press. But the media also needs to respect the pre-set rules requested by sources. It's like saying a certain bit of information is off the record. The Bills didn't want certain aspects of their strategy released publicly, and Brown failed to abide by that rule. And if the Bills allowed Brown (who is actually employed by the team) to break the rule, they couldn't really enforce it on the other reporters.

I don't think it will make much difference. We usually do one scrimmage (which is no more than a glorified practice) against another team each year. And if you add up all of his normal preseason time, you are usually talking about one full game of action. Most mechanical improvements (like when Allen is working with Jordan Palmer) are made during offseason training, before the team even gets together. Training camp is more for physical conditioning, implementing the playbook, developing timing with teammates, etc. Preseason is for gradually getting into game speed. According to the reporters watching training camp, Allen's mechanics (especially on those deep throws) have looked cleaner from Day 1. Hopefully he doesn't slip back into old habits once the real bullets start flying, and the pressure is on.

For most NFL quarterbacks, the third season is a very good gauge of how they will perform the rest of their career. At this point, Josh Allen will have gone through three professional offseason programs. He's had plenty of time to work on fixing his biggest issues. On the flip side, defensive coordinators now have plenty of film on his strengths/weaknesses. This season he's probably not going to have tons of running lanes, and will be forced to make throws he's struggled with in the past. There are always exceptions to the rule (example: Drew Brees broke out in his fourth season). And it's fair to point out that Allen started his career behind most Top 10 prospects, due to him attending a small university. But I think we will know by the end of 2020 - barring a premature cancellation of the season - whether he's going to be a star, solid starter, bust, etc.

Unbelievable. The website link I posted is the OFFICIAL MISSION STATEMENT for Black Lives Matter. It is not just some website. It is the official BLM website. You are blindly supporting an organization without reading what it believes. If you think it is idiotic to de-fund the police (we finally agree), then you are disagreeing with the very organization that you DEMAND people agree with!!!!!!!!! I'm 100% for racial equality. I do not believe BLM stands for racial equality. I actually believe their ideas are damaging and destructive to the black community. - I believe that in order to save more black lives, we need to stand-up for police who are doing their jobs right. Not demonize them and defund them. - I believe that in order to save more black lives, we need to take drug dealers and criminals off the street. Not make it easier for them to commit crimes. - I believe that in order to save more black lives, we need to promote the nuclear family and fatherhood. - I believe that in order to save more black lives, we need to promote traditional Christian values, reject Marxism and socialism, and reject this idea that minorities cannot succeed in American society. All of these ideas are completely opposite of BLM.

Quit putting all "people of color" in a box. Not every African American believes in these ideas. Not even close. Would you like to know what the black cop at my church thinks of BLM? My last response was pretty tame considered to what he would say. I don't need any news station to tell me what BLM believes. It's on their website. https://blacklivesmatter.com/what-we-believe/ This was exactly my original point, and why civil discourse has literally become impossible. If you believe taking the police out of minority communities is going to save black lives, I think your absolutely and positively nuts. It goes against common sense, and every imaginable crime statistic the FBI can assemble.

People are reluctant to use the phrase BLM because of the organization and its beliefs. Not because of the phrase in itself. FBI stats show that approximately less than 300 African Americans are killed each year by police. Only about 10 percent, meaning less than 30 of them are unarmed. The vast majority of these killings are justified. Cases like George Floyd are hyped-up, but clearly the exception to the rule. Meanwhile, over 2500 African Americans are killed each year by non-police. So if I truly cared about black lives, why in the world would I be screaming to abolish or de-fund the police? I'm ignoring a much BIGGER problem, simply to appease outrage over a minority of cases. I'm all for looking into ways to decrease police brutality and solve this problem. But BLM doesn't want to hear it. They want police gone. Period. And any African American who speaks out against their ideas is considered an outcast. I live in St. Louis where a black police officer was killed during the "protests", and BLM doesn't even care. That's not even starting to consider their support for violent riots, their Marxist political beliefs, their blatant anti-white racism and their ideas that actually discourage traditional families/fatherhood.

This morning, I was listening to a talk show. The two hosts were suggesting this country has reached a tipping point, where we are completely beyond civil discourse. The two political/cultural sides are so far apart, it's hard to believe we can ever find common ground. I mean... we have reached the place where phrases like "All Lives Matter" and "Love God, Love People" are considered hateful and disrespectful.

Why would he need to learn a new playbook? Come on man!! What are you a junkie!

Excitement is way down. I just don't see how the NFL is going to pull-off a season, without tons of players contracting the virus. Think about how many active players, practice squad players, coaches, trainers, etc. are associated with a single team. How do you keep that many people in a bubble and quarantined? Just doesn't seem realistic. And unlike baseball, you can't reschedule an NFL game into a double-header down the road. My guess is that within the first month, the season will either need to be delayed, cut short or completely cancelled. Combine that with the athletes determined to shove their political/social justice garbage in our face at every turn, it makes me less and less thrilled to turn the games on.

Thank you. These arguments have devolved into this idea that it's EITHER "safety, health, family" OR you are just a selfish jerk who only cares about money. Last time I checked, it takes money to support a family. And not every job can be done from home. When you see citizens petitioning the government to re-open the economy, it's not because they are upset Billy Joe's Restaurant isn't serving their favorite pancakes each morning. They are upset because Billy Joe is going to lose the business that he poured his life savings into.

Yep. Total revisionist history. It's not about "liking/loving" a player. It's about properly valuing that player, and then actually utilizing your resources to draft them. If Buddy Nix truly thought Russell Wilson was going to be a franchise QB, he wouldn't have given him a 4th Round grade. Reminds me of Bill Polian now claiming he had a 1st Round grade on Tom Brady. Now I love Polian and what he did for the Bills. But that is total B.S. He may have seen potential in Brady. But he clearly saw more potential in all the other guys he drafted first.

Talk. Talk. Talk. Three years ago, the critics were saying that Josh Allen would be a total bust in the NFL. The Bills should have drafted Josh Rosen instead. While inconsistent, Allen showed lots of promise as a rookie. At times, he totally took over games with his legs (Minnesota, Miami), while showing incredible leadership and a knack for making big plays late in games. Rosen was the one who was a complete disaster. So last offseason, the experts did everything to downplay what Allen was doing well. Who cares about his athletic ability, his arm or his leadership? The focus quickly shifted to what he was doing poorly, specifically his struggles with pocket presence and mid/short-range accuracy. They said he would always be a gunslinger, who would struggle with these kinds of throws. Allen responded by putting in work, and vastly improving in both of these areas. So now the goalpost has moved again. Now Allen will NEVER SUCCEED unless he improves his deep ball. I guess we'll see... But I seem to recall that Allen began hitting more and more of these passes in the final quarter of the season. Specifically in the New England game.

There are many who made up their mind about Josh Allen when he was a draft prospect, and were very vocal that he would be a bust. They will cherry pick stats, and nitpick every mistake just to defend their position from 3 years ago. Just look around. The same people who praise Lamar Jackson's game, are the same people who knock Allen for his supposed inaccuracy and his below average completion percentage. They are the same ones who say QBs should only be judged on throwing from the pocket, without considering what his athleticism and running ability bring to the table. I'm convinced that if Allen turns into an MVP candidate this season, these critics will still find ways to say he's a one-year wonder.

I keep hearing the schedule is going to be an issue. But I'm not sure I really buy that narrative. First of all... If our first goal is to win the AFC East, then all of the teams in our division will be playing roughly the same opponents. Everyone gets the NFC and AFC West. Everyone has to play the Chiefs, 49ers and Seahawks. Not just the Bills. Second... Our first path to playoffs goes through the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets. Up until this season, we were pretty much counting on a Wild Card, because the Pats were a beast too big to overcome. Well this year, they are likely going into the season with Jarrett Stidham (0 NFL starts to his name). The Dolphins are in a rebuilding year. The Jets do have some talent, but we have better coaching and a better roster. The only reason the Bills still have doubters, is because they can't get past the last 15-20 years. Or because they have serious doubts about Josh Allen.

I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at with your graphs. If you wanted to measure data, this is what I would suggest: - Create three graphs for the most important receiver stats (catches, yards, touchdowns) - Measure how these stats change each game/season, based on the rating of the QB throwing to him This would at least show how a WR is impacted by the performance of his QB. To do the reverse, you would probably need to find a way to score/rate WRs.

Regardless of how talented a WR is... he is ALWAYS going to under-perform without a good QB throwing him the ball. Marcus Mariota looks like an NFL backup. And for all the hype Ryan Tannehill got last year, his play was definitely more on the game-manager end of the spectrum. The Titans did not have an explosive passing offense, and was clearly a Derrick Henry run-first strategy. As the year progressed, AJ Brown also became the #1 target in the limited attack they did have.

There have been multiple studies done on the draft, and what rounds Hall of Fame legends, All-Pros/Pro-Bowlers, Starters and just guys who make the roster are picked. In every single study, the highest percentage begins in the 1st Round and gradually decreases each round after that point. Data shows a direct correlation between how early a player is selected and how successful their career will be. GMs and Scouts absolutely know what they are doing (admittedly some better than others). There are two reasons that fans BELIEVE the draft is just a random crap shoot: #1 - First Round prospects are WAY over-hyped. From the moment the Super Bowl finishes, the top guys in each draft class are pumped up to the point that everyone thinks they are getting a Pro-Bowler. Which just isn't realistic. The Pro-Bowl doesn't have enough spots to add 32 new guys every year. For example, look at the "Bills Worst Draft Pick" thread from a few months ago. The only reason players like Marcel Dareus, Donte Whitner or Shaq Lawson could possibly be on that list, is because expectations are way too high. Bottom line... most 1st Round guys (outside of maybe Quarterbacks) at least turn into NFL starters. And most 7th Round guys don't make the active roster. #2 - Late round success stories are talked about ENDLESSLY. Every single year, we are reminded at the beginning of the 6th Round that Tom Brady was picked there 20 years ago. The problem is, he's pretty much the only 6th Round QB in NFL history who has ever done jack squat. Brady isn't an example of scouts "missing" on a player. He's an example of a below-average college talent somehow improving every aspect of his game by 500% after hitting the pros - which just simply doesn't happen.

Instead of "crap shoot" phrase, I prefer to look at the draft as an educated guess. At the very top of the draft, you usually have very productive players from big universities. Physical freaks. Huge stats. Guys who have been incredible football players since they were in high school. Even guys like Chase Young (who went #1 this year) aren't 100% guarantees. They could always get lazy or get injured. But there are less things that could POTENTIALLY go wrong. But as those Young-like prospects are snatched up, the remaining players get riskier and riskier. You start looking at smaller schools with lower levels of competition. You have guys who may lack athleticism in some way. You have guys who were not very productive in college. Guys with injury concerns and off-field red flags. If the 1st Round has a 75% chance of success (just throwing numbers out here)... the 2nd Round is probably 40-50%...and it continues to drop as the draft goes on. Certain positions also carry a greater risk that others, due to a greater jump to the pro-level. No GM is going to hit 100% on picks. But the good ones have a knack for almost always hitting on their Day 1 picks (at least), while also getting some nice players later in the draft.

Agree with this. Also, there are a handful of teams around the NFL who are employing a similar strategy: Step 1: Draft young QB in the 1st Round Step 2: Aggressively surround QB with veteran talent through trades/free agency, before that player hits Year 5-6 and require a contract extension. This is what the Rams and Eagles did starting in 2016. This is what the Bears and Chiefs have done starting in 2017. This appears to be the strategy for the Browns, Jets and Bills after the 2018 draft. But having that kind of strategy is only part of the equation. - The Rams are experiencing a very short window, because they were probably too aggressive in the trade market. - The Bears were largely unsuccessful, mostly because the QB they drafted never developed into a franchise guy. - The Eagles and Chiefs both won the Super Bowl, because they picked good QBs, didn't go overboard with trades/free agency, but did a good job of using resources to tackle their weakest roster spots. In my opinion, the Bills seem to have a good balance... more in tune with the Chiefs/Eagles than with the Rams. The big key will be whether Josh Allen can be like Mahomes/Wentz or like Trubisky.

The most important piece for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes, who was obviously a draft pick. When your QB is on a rookie contract, there is a little bit more flexibility in adding veteran players. Once Mahomes gets $30-40 million per year, the salary cap will no longer allow those kinds of moves. The key is balance. Rookies are cheap, but they also take time to develop. It would be foolish to have a team full of nothing but young/inexperienced players, while stockpiling $100 million in unused cap. But you can go too far the other way (see the Rams), where you totally mortgage the future for the sake of 2-3 seasons. To judge the Stefon Diggs trade, you also have to look at the Bills salary cap position, the youth on the team, and the brief window they have before Josh Allen (potentially) requires a massive contract extension. It's not something you can just make a hard and fast rule about.