mjt328

Tomorrow night should tell us a lot. This team has been on a downward slide, and has played 3 bad games in a row. Finally lost to a division opponent. Fail to rebound, and the panic here is legit.

All I care about is winning the Super Bowl. If we have lost enough games by mid-December for the AFC East to actually be in play, our team just isn’t good enough to pull that off. The Bills need to be at least 10-2 at that point of the season. This schedule is pathetic.

So a team that almost never turns the ball over, having 3 of them wasn’t fluky? Having 11 penalties wasn’t fluky? This was the sloppiest game we have played in over a year (since last year’s regular season loss to the Ravens). And they still needed a last second field goal to pull it out. Anything can happen. But if the Bills drop another 5-6 games with this schedule, then they aren’t a real Super Bowl contender.

Maybe you don’t remember us beating them 31-0 on opening day, with a revamped roster full of big-name FA additions. People were already punching our Super Bowl tickets.

Our goal this season should be 13-14 wins, the Number #1 seed in the AFC and ultimately a Super Bowl championship. The Patriots should just be happy to win 9-10 games and make the playoffs. If the division is still in play down the stretch, something went horribly wrong and we need to be talking about who deserves to be fired. We had a few wins against Tom Brady’s Patriots during his career. In-division upsets happen sometimes. That doesn’t mean we had a prayer at taking the AFC East.

I don't think he's "horrible" at drafting. It's just that almost everyone he drafts would be graded as a B (solid starter) or C (solid backup/rotational piece). In my opinion, he's too safe and needs to take more chances. Both at being more willing to trade-up for a difference maker, and being willing to swing at riskier/higher ceiling players.

Just a thought about trades in general. While the overall draft is very important for the foundation of a team, I think the value of most individual picks is vastly overrated. First round picks are considered absolute gold around the league. But think about what they actually turn into. Very few turn into superstars outside of the Top 5-10. Most are solid starters. A handful are total busts. After Josh Allen, Beane has spent 1st Round Picks on the following players: - Tremaine Edmunds - Ed Oliver - Greg Rousseau - Kaiir Elam - Dalton Kincaid - Keon Coleman + DeWayne Carter (technically a trade back) - Maxwell Hairston I would argue that none of these players makes a huge impact on the team. Every single one of them is tradeable. If you would have been given the chance to trade that 1st Round Pick for a superstar BEFORE the draft, most would give an emphatic no. But 1-2 years later, none of these players could be swapped for anyone close to a superstar level. The one time Beane traded a 1st Round Pick for a player (Stefon Diggs), it gave us a Top 5 WR for three seasons. Maybe the Los Angeles Rams were onto something a few years ago. Everyone laughed at them for "mortgaging their future" and trading away all their top picks. But it resulted in a Super Bowl win, and they were able to keep a solid roster in place by drafting well in the later rounds.

Not trying to discount your overall thoughts about Brandon Beane's drafting (the lack of impact players complaint is valid), but Hairston wasn't injured tackling or on a heavy contact play. All reports said he just tripped. It was initially believed he tore an ACL, and would miss the entire season. Even after the LCL diagnosis, nobody expected him to be back before Week 8 (after the bye) at the very earliest. Hairston wasn't injury-prone in college either, and a quick Google search says he only missed one game for Kentucky. So I understand why people are tired of drafting undersized players on defense, and it may contribute to us always having injuries. But I'm not sure that applies so much to cornerback, when we also lacked speed at the position.

This is like the Jawaan Taylor situation. That guy comes out of his stance early on almost every pass play. Refs know they can't just keep throwing flags over and over and over. It's embarrassing for the league. Plus it hurts one of their premier teams/quarterbacks. So they just stopped calling it completely. Now you see a bunch of other tackles doing the same thing. The league has let this Tush Push stuff slide for too long now. So if they suddenly start calling false starts all the time, it's basically an admission they have been screwing up for 2-3 years now, and pretty much let the Eagles win a Super Bowl because of it. They will just let this season play out, and then it will get banned in the offseason.

Not in a panic yet. But I'm concerned that our offense has been slowly trending down for the last month. I'm also concerned that our defense looks worse than last season, when we needed it to get better. Getting upset once hopefully won't be a huge deal by season's end. But you really never know. Games like this have cost us homefield advantage and the bye every single year.

Lots of speculation on trades. Just not sure any of the top positions fans are talking about make sense. Cornerback is definitely a need (at this moment). But we just invested a big contract in Christian Benford and a 1st Round Pick in Maxwell Hairston. The big problem is that Hairston might not be able to help much this season, due to the injury and missed practice time. The only thing that makes sense is a one-year rental... and there is a good chance the coaching staff would be opposed to even that, if they feel it takes away from Hairston's development time. At Wide Receiver, Keon Coleman has shown growth, and isn't getting replaced anytime soon. We just invested in Khalil Shakir's extension. Beane has given decent contracts to Josh Palmer and Curtis Samuel, and neither is currently being used to their fullest potential. We also already know how Beane feels about the passing offense in general, after his comments in the offseason. He's not going to start throwing more Day 1-2 picks at WR, when he doesn't feel offense is a weak point on the team. Forget anything more on the D-Line. He added Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht, Larry Ogunjobi, TJ Sanders, Landon Jackson and Deon Walker in the offseason. Some of those guys haven't even played yet. And the rookies will get a chance to develop. To me, the spot that makes the most sense is Safety. It's been a clear weakness on this defense. Taylor Rapp is not playing well, and has a history of being injury-prone. He's also got a potential out in his contract after this year.

This is a very fair and complicated question to answer. In some ways, I do feel like Beane has provided a supporting roster good enough to win the Super Bowl. In other ways, I'm tired of him struggling to find high-impact players at key positions (D-Line in particular). At the same time, I feel like McDermott has done a good job with building the locker room/culture. But I also think his defensive scheme fairs poorly in the playoffs, and is becoming more outdated with each passing season. Every January for the past five years, I've asked the same questions... "What is holding us back, and what do we need to change?" Why do we keep winning so many games in the regular season, but just can't get over the hump in the playoffs? Is it injuries? Bad luck? A mental block against the Chiefs? Is it purely a lack of talent? Lack of execution? Poor gameplan? I'll be honest. I'm not 100% sure of the answer. But I do know this. Josh Allen is not the problem. And he won't be playing at this level forever. Maybe it's McDermott. Maybe it's Beane. Maybe it's a combination of both. My point is... if we can't get over the hump THIS year... with literally everything falling into place for us, then we just need to take the chance and replace them both. The worst thing that can happen is we get back to the same place with a different group.

I think that Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer CAN work on the outside. Palmer is a good route runner. Coleman has the size. We have other guys with enough speed to make safeties pay attention. But we have to be willing to attack, even if they aren't always the highest percentage play. Dorsey was too aggressive. But I think Brady has trended too far the other way. Eventually defenses catch on. Our offense has been gradually trending down as the season has progressed.

The problem isn't the "everybody eats" mentality. I think offenses work better when the QB isn't forcing it to one player, and it creates a win-first attitude amongst the offensive players. The problem is that we need to strike a better balance between conservative/efficient and aggressive/reckless. We can't just go weeks on end without challenging a defense downfield. Ken Dorsey's offense was about aggressively attacking downfield with the passing game, and often forcing the ball to Stefon Diggs. Yes, we were among the top scoring teams in the league, but struggled with efficiency and turnovers. Most games we had 3-4 great touchdown drives. The other 6-7 drives were a complete mess. Joe Brady is basically the opposite philosophy, but it's turning out similar results. Very balanced run/pass. Mostly short passes. Avoiding turnovers. Just getting the ball to whoever is open. It's statistically much more "efficient". But it's also lacks explosive plays. Now we are stalling 6-7 drives a game, because it's hard to consistently finish long drives (especially when it requires overcoming penalties). In my opinion, we really need to find ways to attack more downfield. We don't need a superstar outside receiver to do that. Even if we don't have a burner on the roster, guys like Curtis Samuel and Elijah Moore do have some speed. Keon Coleman needs to get better at the jump-balls and back-shoulder throws. Khalil Shakir can be used more than just on screens. Our Tight Ends can also challenge down the seems on deeper passes. Josh Palmer can do more.

If the Bills can't at least make the Super Bowl this year, we absolutely have to move on from Sean McDermott. And I wouldn't be totally opposed to moving on from Brandon Beane too. Let's be clear. Any GM/Coach combination in the NFL can win double-digit games, make the playoffs and win a Wild Card game with Josh Allen as the quarterback. Absolutely bare minimum. So far, we have had five postseason chances since our QB broke out. This regime is 2-3 in the Divisional Round and 0-2 in the Championship Game. To make matters worse (particularly in the case of McDermott), the consistent theme in all five postseason exits has been poor defense... which is supposed to be his specialty. The most devastating loss (13 seconds) was due to a defensive collapse AND spectacular failure at basic coaching fundamentals. In the case of Beane, he continues to allocate the vast majority of his resources to the pass rush (both draft picks and cap space) - yet that unit still struggles with consistency, lacks impact playmakers and always disappears in the biggest moments. The AFC will never be as open for us as we see it right now. We pulled an extremely easy schedule, while the Chiefs pulled an extremely hard one. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are both injured, and it's conceivable that both the Ravens and Bengals miss the playoffs. Everything is setting up for us to get the #1 Seed for the first time, at the same time our top competition is suffering a down/lost year. The fear with changing regimes is always the chance of going backwards. But with each passing season, I'm starting to question the value that McDermott/Beane actually bring to the organization. They did a great job of building the foundation for a franchise that was a mess for nearly two decades. But they can't seem to figure out the next step. If we keep spinning our wheels in the same place that literally any other GM/Coach pair could reach, then we really don't have anything to lose.

Exactly. The Bills aren't the same stratosphere as the Brady/Belichick Patriots or Mahomes/Reid Chiefs. In the biggest moments of games, Brady/Mahomes usually got 95% of the credit for being clutch. But upon replay, you will see the O-Line also stepped up and kept a clean pocket on those plays. You will see the receivers found a way to get open on those plays. You will see the defense on the other side do something to help make a stop. In the biggest moments of games, Josh Allen is usually forced to run around immediately and get away from pressure... desperately trying to find anyone on the field open. When he does make that big play, it's almost a given the defense will fall apart going the other direction. Think about our last 3 losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs. Scrambling from tons of pressure, only for Dalton Kincaid to drop it. Dion Dawkins unable to keep the rush from knocking his pass off target. Then Tyler Bass missing the field goal. And of course the defense on 13 seconds. Fans generally give Allen a pass for his mistakes, because he shouldn't need to play near-perfect every game in order for us to win.

If the Bills had won last night, they would be 3.5 games ahead in the AFC East... and 2 games ahead of pretty much everybody else in the AFC. By the first week of October. With a very easy schedule the rest of the way. The NFL benefits by drama and important matchups. They don't just heavily promote the teams people love, but also ones that people hate and badly want to lose (Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs). That's what makes people watch. Not one team running away with it before kids have even picked out their Halloween costumes. I've never claimed the NFL is totally scripted. But you can see lots of evidence that refs are used to help nudge things in a particular direction. And it usually doesn't take a lot. Bad calls don't make people stop watching (because we are all addicts), and in many cases they get us talking more after the game is over.

As I stated in another thread, Sean McDermott's defensive scheme is outdated. The NFL is constantly evolving and changing. When McDermott first started putting this thing together, the big trend was attacking downfield with big passing plays. His system was built for stopping that. Not to mention, he had a fantastic secondary with prime Tre White, Taron Johnson, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde to execute it. Now nobody is finding success downfield (even Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes), and offenses are shifting into bigger O-Lines and power running games. Teams with small D-Lines and Linebackers, playing mostly Nickel are getting absolutely steamrolled. You will notice that very few defenses can stay good/elite for more than a 3-4 years. That's because it's hard to keep 11 guys together on that side of the ball with age and free agency. It's also hard for coordinators to adapt to the changing landscape around them. Most have a system or scheme they are comfortable with, and aren't good at changing. I honestly like what McDermott brings to the table as a leader and head coach. But his defensive system has run it's course. For the last two seasons, they have relied almost completely on turnovers. Last night was probably their best half of football since last December, and they couldn't sustain it for 4 quarters. Once the Patriots figured things out, they once again couldn't stop a nosebleed. We need a new perspective on that side of the ball. Scheme, Play-calling and Personnel.

The Pegulas have made it clear that both Beane/McDermott are equals. Neither is the boss of the other. It never works out when a GM drafts players that don't fit the system. The coaching staff won't use or develop them properly. I truly believe that's the #2 reason that Doug Whaley failed as a GM (with the #1 reason being not finding a QB). He had a good eye for talent, but worked poorly with the coaches. I also think that's one of the reasons Kaiir Elam totally busted. His skillset never fit our defense, so he got buried on the depth chart and then spent years trying to develop into a sound zone corner. If our coaching staff is requesting a particular kind of D-Lineman, Linebacker, Cornerback, Etc.... then Beane would be foolish to go against their wishes, even if he believes a different kind of player would be better. The real problem is that the NFL trends change and evolve over time. When McDermott first came to town, more teams were attacking downfield with the passing game. His system was built to stop that. But now offenses have gradually started getting bigger and better at running the ball. Our small front 7 and heavy nickel stuff is outdated. Not to mention the general philosophy of bend/don't break, force offenses into long drives, etc. has proven to be ineffective against playoff level QBs. So that side of the ball is generally dead in the water.

I like Sean McDermott's overall philosophy as a head coach, and the way he runs the locker room. Players talk all the time about how superior the culture is in Buffalo versus other teams. That's the main reason I'm reluctant to scream for a change. But I've also come to the conclusion that we will NEVER take the next step, until McDermott is willing to totally concede control of the Defense to an elite coordinator. That means scheme, personnel and playcalling. His system and style has completely run it's course. We have seen the same problems persist for 5-6 years in a row now. - Lack of QB pressure in key moments - Poor tackling - Undersized front getting steamrolled by bigger O-Lines - Key injuries, also due to undersized players - Cornerbacks playing too soft in coverage At what point do we realize that Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard are small for linebackers, and thus will always have problems with injuries? At what point do we realize the same thing with Taron Johnson, since we are asking him to basically play like a third linebacker half the time? At what point do we realize that a 4-man pass rush needs elite pass rushers, and not just a constant rotation to succeed? At what point do we realize that good QBs can pick apart soft zone coverage, and we need to draft elite guys who can go man/man against top WRs?

I'd like to say this was just an uncharacteristic game by a really good team. And that's how a lot of fans are going to try and frame it. But in reality, the Bills have a ton of glaring holes and their performance has gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. They peaked in the 4th Quarter of Week 1, against what is quickly proving to be one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL (Ravens) while they were playing mostly soft prevent. Riding the high of that miracle comeback, they also looked pretty good in the first half against possibly the worst overall teams in the NFL (Jets), before putting in their backups and coasting the final two quarters. Everything has been rolling downhill from that point. Miami looked awful before playing us, and has been awful since almost pulling the upset. It was hard to imagine us playing worse than we did against the Saints last week. But then we had this abomination against the Patriots. Total slop fest all night on offense. The defense was strong in the first half, then got figured out by the other coaching staff and couldn't stop a thing the rest of the night. I'm sure all week we will hear how the Bills weren't going to be undefeated all season, so this isn't a big deal in the long-run. Maybe it's even a blessing, because it will serve as a wake up call. Except every single year we watch them blow games just like this against vastly inferior opponents... leading to us eventually getting the #2 or #3 seed, and traveling to Arrowhead in the playoffs. Don't look now, but the Chiefs now control their destiny in the AFC race. They have been playing better than us over the last 2-3 games, and against a much more difficult schedule.

The Bills are going to be a different team on offense every single week, depending on the opponent and game plan. Even if they didn't do it on Sunday against the Saints, I think Joe Brady really likes the ability to run 3-Tight End sets.

Because yardage stats are often misleading, and don't tell the whole story. The teams we have played so far are mostly run-first teams (Baltimore, New York, New Orleans), and/or have some of the worst starting QBs in the entire league (New York, New Orleans). Plus, they are absolutely gashing us on the run... so there hasn't been much reason to attack us that way. Again... most teams are going to attack where a team is the weakest. When a team can't tackle, they are going to test you with the rushing attack and short passes that rely on YAC. Plus (as I said previously), we have played against Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa and Spencer Rattler -- not exactly guys known for aggressively attacking defenses downfield. Lamar Jackson spent 85% of the game handing off and playing with a big lead. When the opposing QB drops back to pass, he's got a clean pocket and plenty of time (over 2 seconds) to throw. Or the D-Line over-pursues, gives up contain and allows them to take off running. And the secondary isn't doing a good job of defending passes once it's been released. From what I've seen, teams haven't had much trouble throwing when they need to do it, regardless of what the stats say. For example... It won't count in the stat book, but the Saints should have taken the lead yesterday with 9 minutes left. On 3rd-13, we got zero pass rush and Brandin Cooks beat his man. Rattler just made a poor pass. That kind of play counts as a positive stop for our pass defense, when it was really just a bad job by the quarterback. My worry is that our schedule doesn't really give the defense much of a real test, and stats are going to be skewed most of the season. Our next three opponents are Drake Maye, Michael Penix and Bryce Young. Very good chance our passing rankings will be pretty good by the end of the year. And then we head into the postseason to face Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson.

My evaluation after a quarter of the season... The offense is scoring 33.3 ppg (#2 in the NFL), has put up 30+ in every game, and only has one turnover. Yet it somehow feels like they are still leaving plenty of meat on the bone. Joe Brady's calling has been pretty conservative, outside of the 4th Quarter of the Ravens game. We basically ran out the second half with backups against the Jets. There have been stretches of sloppy play with drops and penalties killing drives. It's crazy to think that Josh Allen has quite possibly been the best QB in the NFL so far, and it almost seems like he's holding back. James Cook has quite possibly been the best RB in the NFL, and there have been a half-dozen shoestring tackles where he's almost broken long touchdown runs. If this group can start hitting on all cylinders, no scoring record is safe. The defense has been the complete opposite. They have been awful in all phases of the game, and if not for a couple important game-saving turnovers (Derrick Henry fumble, Terrell Bernard pick, Cole Bishop one-handed INT), things could somehow be much worse. Some want to blame it on injuries or rookies, but even our dependable veterans are looking like garbage. Our number-one focus in the offseason was upgrading the D-Line, and it's been a massive disappointment in every way. Every QB has 3-4 seconds to throw. Joey Bosa is the only one getting the occasional pressure, and he offsets it by constantly losing outside contain and letting up a bigger play. Against the run, they are getting blown off the ball and filling the wrong gaps. Tackling has been about the worst I've ever witnessed on a Bills team, and that's really saying something. Slow to the ball. Getting run over and pushed backwards. Whiffing and getting juked in the open field. Falling off ballcarriers. It almost looks like a team tired of injuries and trying to preserve itself for the postseason. Coverage has also been bad. The secondary seems confused before the snap. They are giving too much space to receivers off the line, and then leaving guys wide open. The times they have been in position, they can't knock the ball away. Even Christian Benford looks lost out there. Bottom line, we are probably looking at the best Offense during the Josh Allen-era... combined with the worst Defense during the Josh Allen-era. Yes, that has resulted in a 4-0 record so far. But much of that is due to the cupcake schedule we were fortunate to pull. We have all seen other teams roll through the regular season with 14 or 15 wins (see Chiefs/Vikings last year), knowing they really weren't as good as the standing showed. I don't want to be that team. The Bills staff needs to be working overtime to figure out what is wrong with this defense. Is it the personnel? Is it the scheme? Is it the coaching staff? We still have some time before the trade deadline to make a move. We could still pull a Ken Dorsey on Bobby Babich. What we can't do is be overconfident because of the record and then ignore the glaring flaws staring us in the face.

Not sure you're missing anything. Neither guy was anything special on their previous teams. People also seem to be very optimistic that Ed Oliver will suddenly become a consistent force in his 7th season, despite always being the type of player to be awesome for one game and then disappear for multiple weeks... And that Matt Milano will return and stay healthy for the first time since 2022... And that Maxwell Hairston will become an impact player as a rookie, even though he missed most of training camp/preseason and hasn't played a single snap yet... Personally, I'm hoping we can figure out why Greg Rousseau, Terrell Bernard, Taron Johnson, Christian Benford and Taylor Rapp have all massively regressed over the first month of the season.