mjt328

Not worried much about the Ravens defense. Josh Allen is pretty much matchup proof. Yes, he has bad games sometimes (just like everyone else). But it's usually more about him having an "off-day" than anything the opposing defense is actually doing to him. If he's locked-in on Sunday, the Ravens aren't going to stop us from scoring. There is a legitimate reason everyone is worried about the other side... First is history. The Bills defense has historically struggled the deeper they get into the playoffs. They have historically struggled to stop Derrick Henry. And possibly their worst performance in the last 3 years was against the Ravens earlier this year. Playing the matchup game, it's just a nightmare to try and load-up front to stop Henry...AND be prepared for Lamar Jackson to run...AND have decent coverage in the secondary. That is for any defensive coordinator in the NFL. Much less an undersized team that prefers to play light boxes and Nickel personnel. My feeling is that we MUST throw some clever wrinkles at them early with our defensive looks, make stops in the redzone, and most importantly get a lead. This is not a game for our trademark slow starts. Our best hope against the Ravens is to make them one-dimensional, turn them into a passing team and make them rely on Jackson to make plays with his arm.

Well yes. Of course. Until the Bills get past those teams and win the Super Bowl, they will be known as a strong regular season team that chokes in the playoffs. As they should.

Some coaches are good at building culture, shaping a locker room and creating year by year consistency. But they just don’t have what it takes to finish the job and win a championship. McDermott may be a good coach. He may even be a great coach. But at some point, you can’t just ignore the playoff failures. Defense is supposed to be what he brings to the table. The road to the Super Bowl goes through the same guys every season (Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow). If he can’t figure out how to slow down those guys, we are just spinning our wheels. A lot of Bills fans are so terrified of possibly going back to the old drought days… they would be content stay in this cycle the rest of Josh Allen’s career.

Let’s not take a victory lap yet. This is what a decent defense was supposed to do against a rookie QB. Right now, the Bills are in the exact place they have been the previous 4 seasons. Still a long, long, long way to go. Only once were they able to get past that point (against a much inferior version of Lamar Jackson). And they still haven’t shown they can remotely slow down playoff Patrick Mahomes. Nobody is impressed winning a Wild Card game. It’s the next three games that defines who this team really is.

Please. Quit making excuses for these pathetic voters. The MVP award is narrative driven. And if you can't see how the sports media keeps switching the criteria every season in order to prop up certain players (and downplay others), then I just don't know what to tell you. Last year, you couldn't watch a Bills game without hearing how absolutely terrible Josh Allen was at turning over the ball. You would have thought he was having a Jameis Winston year or something. He absolutely crushed little MVP Jackson in every other stat. But they needed to pull Allen down. This year, not a peep. Total turnovers were never on the stat comparison between Allen/Jackson. Because this year, our guy had less. And where was all the talk mid-season about turnovers when Patrick Mahomes was leading the NFL? It's total B.S. Suddenly nobody seems to care that Jackson had Derrick Henry either, when last year we kept hearing about lack of weapons. And I don't want to hear about "normalizing stats" out either. How many voters are factoring in how many times Allen spent the 4th Quarter sitting the bench or handing the ball off, because his offense had already run up the score? In my previous post, I was nice enough to include Allen's second season, where many in the NFL were still calling him trash or a bust. Even factoring in that year (where Jackson was winning his first MVP), Allen has still scored 54 more touchdowns and racked up over 3,000 more yards over the past six seasons. The simple truth is... Allen is a better player. It's really not close. It hasn't been close since 2020. Yet voters keep picking the other guy. Not just for MVP, but also for All-Pro, Pro-Bowl, etc. We can all theorize the reasons. But it's pretty clear the sports media keeps moving the goalposts.

The Bills get disrespected like this every year. Half the time, Josh Allen doesn't even make the Pro Bowl. I'm waiting for the year they actually do something about it.

Statistics over the last five years: Total Yards: Allen (27,871), Jackson (24,336) Total TDs: Allen (242), Jackson (188) Team Wins: Allen (71), Jackson (68) Yet somehow Jackson will likely have 3 MVP awards during that period of time, while Allen has zero. There is clearly bias... either for one player, or against one player, or both. No other explanation.

It's not hard to argue against it. People have been making rock solid arguments why it should be Josh Allen for well over a month now. When Josh Allen has the better stats, they give it to Jackson for other stuff (team record, big games, supporting cast). When Josh Allen has the other stuff, they give it to Jackson because of stats.

Completely take away those two Super Bowl seasons, and he's still got a ring. Not to mention two additional AFC titles and four additional appearances in the Championship game. If the Bills had that resume at the end of Allen's career, I would be thrilled. The Chiefs barely blink and they are sitting in the Final Four. McDermott has one trip past the Divisional Round, and it was an absolute grind to get there. With Allen at QB and his supposed genius as a defensive coach, he shouldn't NEED a superstar to make the next step. If his defense could just play average for 4 straight playoff games, we would probably win it all.

This kind of thing absolutely must factor into the conversation. Regardless of the sport, the MVP award is hugely significant in a player's all-time legacy. Over the last 4-5 seasons, Josh Allen has consistently been one of the top runners-up to the award. Even when his statistics have been better, he's been edged out by someone else due to other outside factors (team record, surrounding players, big game performance, etc.) Last year was obviously the most relevant to that conversation, since Lamar Jackson won it, despite being outside the Top 10 in both touchdowns and yards. How will NFL historians look back at this era in 20-25 years. If Jackson is somehow a 3x MVP during this period, then he would certainly have been the most dominant player in the league, with the best stats and the best team. Yet strangely, when you add everything up... Allen has the better stats by far, along with a better record. That can't happen unless the voters are changing criteria every single year.

Lamar Jackson is not good in the playoffs. Mike Tomlin is much, much worse.

At what point does not winning the Super Bowl become unacceptable? The Bills have a future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback in his prime. Possibly the best player in the entire NFL, and a Top 2 QB in the minds of almost everyone who watches the sport. Going strictly by the numbers, his postseason stats are also among the best in all of NFL history. We're talking comparable to guys like Brady and Montana. When you think about it, the fact that we haven't even made a Super Bowl or survived past the Divisional Round in the last 3 years is one of the biggest failures in all of sports. Regardless of how much I enjoy watching Josh Allen... yes, the Bills are absolutely wasting season after season if they can't win the Super Bowl. Even a below average performance by our defense would probably be enough. But in the playoffs, we have continually suffered with some of the worst performances anyone has ever seen on that side of the ball. Unable to sniff the opposing quarterback. Unable to force turnovers. Unable to force punts.

The closer you get to the Lombardi, the more it hurts when your team's season ends. No matter how much the drought sucked, it will never compare to the pain of something like Wide Right. Many of us have PTSD, because we still remember when the 1990s teams were just emerging. Loaded with talent and future Hall of Fame players. Dominating year after year in the AFC. Always coming up just a little bit short at the end. It was inevitable they were going to win a Super Bowl at some point. Then one January in Orchard Park, the Jaguars pulled off the upset. And suddenly it was over. I want to believe that Josh Allen winning the Super Bowl is inevitable. But the truth is, it's gone in a blink. Every year that passes without winning it all, it's one more season we've wasted of a Hall of Fame quarterback's career.

I never hold the Defense responsible if they hold the other team under 20 points. I never hold the Offense responsible if they score more than 30 points.

I'll just say this. If the Bills defense has trouble with Nix, then it's time to replace Sean McDermott and completely overhaul that side of the ball. System, scheme and talent. Burn it down and start from scratch. You are never going into the postseason healthier than the Bills are right now. No more BS excuses from the defense. The path to the Super Bowl is going through Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc... and it will be that way for the rest of Josh Allen's career. We can't hope to someday get lucky and avoid them in the postseason. Every year is going to require us slowing down a combination of those QBs. If this unit struggles against Nix while he's a rookie in his first playoff game... then God help us.

I'm sure Surtain will shut-down the guy he's across from, but not half the field. The beauty of the Bills passing attack, is that it doesn't rely on production from one guy. If they want to put Surtain on Amari Cooper and take him out of the game, then fine. The Bills will be just as content throwing to Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox or one of the running backs. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Denver was an ideal draw for the Wild Card. I would ALWAYS rather have Josh Allen go against a top defense, than end up in a shootout with another elite quarterback. I'm pretty confident we can put-up 25-30 points against even the best defensive units in the league, which should be enough to beat a rookie QB in his first playoff start. Shootouts have the potential to become another Rams situation, where neither team can really get a stop and it comes down to 1-2 plays at the end.

The Steelers were a total fraud from the start. If the season would have gone another few games, the Bengals would have easily passed them and they would have missed the playoffs. I can't believe anyone is optimistic about them beating the Ravens. The Texans started strong, and then fell flat around mid-season. I think teams just figured them out.

The reason I wanted this opponent (and not the Bengals), is that I believe Josh Allen is somewhat matchup proof. When he's focused and motivated, it doesn't matter how good the other Defense is. He will find ways to make plays. Denver's strength is in their pass rush. But our guy is the best in the NFL at avoiding sacks. I would be absolutely shocked if we don't put at least 25-30 points on them. On the other side of the ball, I fully expect our Defense to have some issues (like they have all season). But if Sean McDermott/Bobby Babich can't figure out how to at least slow down a rookie QB in his first NFL playoff game... then we need to seriously consider moving on from this coaching staff in the offseason. A defensive staff can't ask for a better matchup in the 1st Round of the postseason.

I've been one of those guys totally against drafting RBs high or paying them big money Free Agent contracts. But maybe it's time to reconsider... The NFL goes through cycles, and it's clearly starting to shift back into RBs becoming more important again. It could be argued that Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry were the two most important signings in the entire offseason. Most people on this board are deathly afraid of facing the Ravens in the playoffs, because of the strength of their running game. Look what trading for Christian McAffrey did for the 49ers a couple years ago, and how bad it hurt them when he missed half the year. Super Bowl vs. totally missing the playoffs. The Lions two-headed RB monster is a major reason they were the #1 offense in football this year. And having an effective running game (led by James Cook) has been a huge part in taking our offense to the next level... the best we've had during the Josh Allen era.

The Pro Bowl is a popularity contest. Deserving Bills like James Cook and Christian Benford didn't make it, because nobody really talks about them during our games. I'm also shocked that Patrick Mahomes didn't make it. Not because he deserved to make it over the other guys. Just that he's clearly pushed as the face of the NFL, and even people who watch football once per year know who he is. I would almost think there was some backlash of fans tired of the Chiefs, but then I saw that Travis Kelce made it.

The Bills defense has been a Top 5-10 unit, pretty much since Sean McDermott arrived in 2017. And it's STILL been our downfall each of the last 4 postseasons, getting shredded by Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow... and even struggling against offenses run by aging Phillip Rivers, Mason Rudolph and Skyler Thompson. Regardless of how good they've been in the regular season, that side of the ball always steps back in the playoffs. This year, the run defense is much worse. The pass defense is much worse. We can't stop teams on 3rd Down, allowing them to hold the ball for ridiculous amounts of time almost every week (keeping our historic offense off the field). But they are +23 overall in the turnover department, which is by far the best in the entire NFL. So somehow, it's all worked out in the end. Historically speaking, turnovers can be very fluky. You really want a defense that is consistently stout and stingy at giving up the field, more than one that is always relying on the big plays to get stops. I would probably be nervous even if the Bills had the #1 unit in the league, simply because they always fall apart once the real games start. But this year, I have zero confidence at all going into the playoffs. Our only hope is that Josh Allen goes absolutely nuclear, and maintains it for 4 weeks in a row. We will need at least 25 points to beat the Broncos, and 35 points if it's the Bengals in the Wild Card Round. Probably need another 35+ points to beat the Ravens and Chiefs, and maybe 40+ if the Super Bowl features the Lions.

Let me ask this... What is the main purpose of having an MVP award? I would argue that it exists to build up the legacy of individual players. In 15-20 years, when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are finished with their careers, much of their greatness will be attributed to the number of MVP awards they won. Nobody considers Jackson the best QB in the NFL, outside of very biased Ravens fans. The vast majority have him #3 or 4 in the league. Allen is generally considered the #1 or #2 guy, neck and neck with Patrick Mahomes. How ridiculous would it be for Jackson to have three MVPs, Mahomes have two and Allen have zero at this point of their careers? Again. When it comes to Jackson, you MUST disregard any (slight) stat advantage he's got over Allen... simply because the voters disregarded Allen's (large) advantage last year. We are talking about 15 more touchdowns in 2023. This year, Jackson has a whopping 2 touchdown lead... despite Allen sitting the entire 4th Quarter in something like six games this season.

The main problem with EVERY SINGLE pro-Lamar Jackson argument is simply he won the 2023 MVP award based on complete opposite logic. Jackson's statistics last year were totally average. #9 in total touchdowns. #15 in yards. The reason he won MVP was because of his excellent performance in big games down the stretch and the way he solely carried his team to the best record in the AFC with limited surrounding weapons. This year, the guy who clearly fits that bill is Josh Allen. Loses all of his top weapons, and arguably puts together the Bills best regular season yet. Anyone who watches the games, knows that Patrick Mahomes has not been carrying his team. And truthfully neither is Jackson. His stats are heavily inflated due to the attention required to stop Derrick Henry. Yes, Jackson is a great player. And his pure numbers are absolutely better than Allen this year. But his numbers were significantly WORSE last year, and the voters went with other criteria to give him the award. If stats had been the primary driver for last year's MVP, then Allen probably should have won and Dak Prescott should have been the runner-up. And this year if we are back to making stats the biggest factor, maybe Joe Burrow deserves some heavy consideration as well. It's not that Jackson's performance isn't MVP-worthy. It's that consistency demands he SHOULD NOT win it this year.

We can argue about who deserves the award all we want, but Josh Allen almost certainly lost the MVP vote last week against the Patriots. As I've been saying all along... the vote is all about narratives. The sports media can't remember what they said yesterday. Much less two weeks ago. No matter how much they gushed after the Lions game and said the race was over, it all comes down to how they feel next Monday after the final game of the regular season. All the vibes have been shifting to Lamar Jackson over the last several days, and there isn't much our guy can do at this point to change that. Allen likely gets three more quarters in the rain against the Jets to prove his case in the box score. Once the #2 seed is in the bag, he's sitting the rest of the regular season (as he should). Less than 3-4 touchdowns and it's probably over. Turn the ball over even once and it's probably over. If the offense struggles at all to move or score, then it's probably over. Because Jackson will get Week 18 to run up his stats against the Browns, while the Ravens lock up the AFC North.

Any Given Sunday. Yeah, I guess it's possible. But I definitely wouldn't put money on it. The Chiefs and Ravens are hitting their stride (both sides of the ball) at the exact right time. The Bills defense is going the wrong direction. Possibly the worst three-game stretch since Sean McDermott took over as our head coach. And based on that stinker in New England, it's also possible the offense peaked too early. Still way to much relying on Josh Allen to carry this team by himself. What's scary... the Bills defense is always worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. Outside of Baltimore in 2020 and New England in 2021, that unit has massively underachieved in the postseason. Not just against Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Also against Philip Rivers, Skylar Thompson and Mason Rudolph. Expect the Wild Card game to be much closer than reasonable, followed by the Ravens destroying us in our own stadium. When the Bills get booted in the Divisional Round again, we will hear a lot about how they "overachieved" by just winning the AFC East.