mjt328

Obviously this was just preseason. But I can't really think of anything positive or any players that stood out in a good way. Maybe Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel? The O-Line was dreadful. The D-Line got zero pressure. Lots of penalties.

Patrick Mahomes is unanimously considered the best Quarterback in the NFL. And some say he's on the way to being the best ever. He is currently the 11th highest paid at the position, and he was extended a year before Josh Allen. The Bills shouldn't even worry about Allen's contract until after the Chiefs make a move.

If Josh Allen goes down for a handful of games, the goal of our backup QB should be to keep us competitive. Don't give away the game. Let the defense and rushing attack carry the show. Hopefully stay about .500 during that brief stretch. In the event Allen goes down for longer, the season is likely toast anyway. Mitch Trubisky has a career record of 31-26, mostly with a Bears team with less overall talent than here. I doubt there are many teams in the NFL with a better win pct. riding the bench.

I'm always skeptical about using the "one-team's success" example, and then building an entire team-building philosophy around it. Yes, Kansas City won the Super Bowl last year with a below average WR room. But there were multiple times during the season that the lack of talent at that position cost them big. Two examples were the opener against Detroit and the regular season game against us (which ultimately let us host the playoff game in Buffalo). Ultimately they were able to overcome. Much of that has to do with them featuring the NFL's best QB, TE and offensive coach. Outside of KC, the other recent Super Bowl teams (San Francisco, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay) all had fantastic receiver rooms with multiple weapons. You need to go back to New England... who is always a statistical outlier... to find another championship team with a weak WR room.

It's completely fair to be skeptical about the Bills WR group. We lost our #1 and #2 outside guys in the offseason. The only guys who have produced in this offense (Knox, Kincaid, Shakir) are slot receivers and tight ends. The rest of the room is made up on a rookie (Coleman), a solid complimentary guy (Samuel), underachieving speedsters (Valdes-Scantling, Hamlin, Isabella), veteran depth (Hollins) and a reclamation project (Claypool). There seem to be a lot of supremely confident fans, absolutely certain that a few of these guys will step up big and we won't miss Diggs at all. Well, I hope they are correct. But let's be completely honest. If this same WR group was on a competitor like the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots or Chiefs... everyone would be calling it a weakness, and boasting how it didn't scare anyone. This position is unproven at best. So everyone is going to scrutinizing it during offseason workouts. As they should. As far as the Minicamp reports... I'm not sure why anyone is really surprised that coaches are shuffling things around. Shakir is hurt. Coleman is a rookie. And none of the guys I have listed above are worthy of being handed the job. None of this is reason to panic. Good or bad, I'm sure it was always the plan to let multiple combinations play with the starting lineup and see what rises to the top. I also don't understand why people are "worried" that Claypool is standing out. He's got the most past success of any WR on the roster, and personally I think it's good that someone is doing good.

The only question with Josh Allen is how long his body will hold-up at this level. Barring some kind of catastrophe, he will easily become the Buffalo Bills all-time touchdown leader in BOTH passing and rushing... surpassing three first-ballot Hall of Fame players in Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and OJ Simpson. That's impressive by itself. The real question is... How close can he get to the all-time NFL record? He's currently got 220 touchdowns in 6 seasons (averaging out to roughly 36 per year). By far, it's the best pace any QB has been on in the history of the NFL. That includes Patrick Mahomes. - At this current pace, it would take him just over 11 more years to surpass Tom Brady with 624 TDs. He would be 39 years old. Assuming that Aaron Rodgers continues moving up the touchdown list himself, Allen would need 8 years at the current pace to reach the Top 5 and surpass Brett Favre's 508 TDs. He would be 36 years old. - If he can average 30 TDs per year for the remainder of his career, it would take him just over 13 more seasons to surpass Brady (41 years old) and just over 9 seasons to surpass Favre (37 years old).

Quite a bit has already been said. But it's really hard for any WR to succeed with a chronic foot injury, and below-average QB play.

Sean McDermott has a 4-4 record against Andy Reid. Josh Allen is 3-4 against Patrick Mahomes. Those games include 12 seconds, Kadarius Toney's Offside and Wide Right Part II. The Chiefs are unanimously considered the best team in the NFL. Reid is considered by many the best coach. Mahomes the best Quarterback. Playing against us, they have roughly a 50/50 chance of winning the game. I'm tired of hearing that we can't get past the Chiefs without firing our coach. The numbers don't support that. I'm tired of hearing that Allen is far below Mahomes. The numbers don't support that either. There are always steps we can take to get better and give ourselves a better chance in the playoffs. But when push comes to shove, there isn't a magic bullet. We have proven we are good enough to beat the Chiefs and have done so about half the time.

Kaiir Elam played almost entirely Man Coverage in college. The Bills lean much heavier into Zone. This never meant that Elam couldn't fit into McDermott's scheme. Just that it was going to take some time for him to learn and adjust. If you go back to the 2022 offseason, almost everyone expected there to be some bumps along the road in his development. The idea is that over the course of 1-2 years of learning, his elite skills would eventually turn him into a better player than Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace were for us. What nobody expected is that 6th Rounder Christian Benford (despite having a much lower athletic upside) would turn out WAY better than his draft profile. And since his college experience was already in Zone, his development curve was also way less. By the time Week 1 rolled around, he was more ready to play. Plain and simple. So he got the starting nod, regardless of being a lower draft pick. And to be honest, there just hasn't been a reason to take that spot away from him. Benford has played very well. Now Elam did get into the starting lineup Week 3 of his rookie year. He started six weeks in a row, looked decent most of the time, and then got hurt. Then of course Tre White finally came back from his ACL injury, and was given one of the starting Cornerback positions. So in a hugely important year for his development, Elam was on the bench for roughly 60-70% of the time. Last year, he was suffering from a foot injury (which the Bills never disclosed until putting him on IR). All the fans saw was him being inactive week after week and started making assumptions that something was wrong with his play. In all, he only played two games before they shut him down for the rest of the season. When it comes to 1st Round Picks, fans expect immediate impact and results. Elam was always going to be a slower developing player than Bills fans wanted to see. But it's also hard for a guy to develop when he's injured and sitting the bench. We've seen some nice flashes. We've seen some ugly struggles. It's just been a weird set of circumstances, constantly keeping him off the field and making it impossible to get a good judgment. Even now in Year 3, he's sitting behind Benford and Rasul Douglas. And regardless of how well Elam plays, I can't see him replacing either of those guys.

It was a joke.

I was OK with most of the offseason moves listed above, and was completely expecting them. There were three specific decisions though which make me question Beane's thought-process. 1. Cutting Mitch Morse 2. Only restructuring some of Josh Allen's contract 3. Trading Stefon Diggs for future assets, then only replacing him with a 2nd Round rookie I understand the concept of not mortgaging the future (draft picks, cap space) in order to make a big splash. We did that once with Von Miller and it didn't work out. But this was downgrading the present team, in order to load up for years down the road. Hopefully I'm wrong and the Bills will be fine.

It drives me nuts how the NFL front offices talk so much about character. But then teams who welcome the big troublemakers often seem to be the most successful. Most of the league's dynasties are horribly unlikeable outside of their hometowns. Growing up in the 90s, the off-field activities of the Dallas Cowboys were legendary and not in a good way. Michael Irvin, Nate Newton, etc. The players who weren't criminals had insufferable personalities, who were almost impossible to root for. Then you have the New England Patriots with cheating scandal after cheating scandal. The reason the Netflix roast is so popular, is because every sports fan outside of Boston hated Tom Brady and it's the closest we will ever get to seeing him punched in the face. Now it's the Chiefs. From Kareem Hunt to Tyreek Hill to Rashee Rice. Taylor Swift. Just awful. You really want to root for a guy like Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid. But then you wonder why the team keeps turning a blind eye and drafting guys who are destined to become a problem.

The Chiefs have now won the AFC West 8 years in a row, and won double-digit games 9 years in a row. During that span, they have 3 Super Bowl wins and 4 appearances. Nobody is expecting less this year. Before them, the Patriots had 17 straight seasons with double-digit wins. They won the AFC East 16 of those years. The only year they didn't was when Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week 1, and they still somehow finished with an 11-5 record. Around the same time, the Colts had 9 straight seasons with double-digit wins. Won the AFC South in all but one of those years (12-4 and still ended in second place). Then Peyton Manning missed an entire year with a neck injury and was released. After that down year, they did it 3 more years in a row with Andrew Luck. Even the Steelers now have 20 straight years finishing .500 or above. They haven't had a losing season since Tommy Maddox was the starting quarterback. Bottom line... there are no legitimate excuses for not winning 10-11 plus games and at least making the playoffs. The idea that we "must go through a down year" to re-set the roster and fix the salary cap is complete nonsense. If we can't go 3-4 seasons without needing to rebuild and reboot everything, then Brandon Beane isn't good enough as a General Manager, and he wasn't doing a proper job of preparing for the future. Now whether that expectation is reality, I don't know. Beane's actions appear (at least from the outside) to be a guy fully expecting a rebuild season, and then reloading a year from now. Hoping that I'm wrong.

This is the big one. Deebo Samuel fits what the San Francisco 49ers do on offense, and that's a huge part to his success. The Bills haven't proven they know how to use a versatile player like him. They don't even try.

We know Brandon Beane can build a Top 5 team in the NFL. But can he get our roster over the top? This being draft season, I can't help but go back and look at his previous classes. Lots of good starters. Very few complete misses. Usually goes into the season with few weaknesses and strong depth. But at the same time... so few impact players. Outside of Josh Allen, most of our All-Pro talent was not drafted by Beane. Stefon Diggs (trade), Matt Milano (previous regime), Von Miller, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde (free agents). We also know that Sean McDermott can lead this team to division championships, and consistently field a Top 5 defense. But everything seems to fall apart come playoff time. His coverage and pressure packages don't seem to work when it counts. I'm definitely not the person who likes calling for firings. And I truly believe that Beane/McDermott can get the job done. But to do so, something needs to change in their approach, strategy, etc. They need to break out of their comfort zone. This team is spinning its wheels, and the same old approach year after year just isn't getting it done.

Teams defend Josh Allen/Bills very similar to how they defend Patrick Mahomes/Chiefs. They key on stopping the deep stuff. I have zero problem with us focusing on the easy/underneath throws. That's what works the best in today's NFL. However, I do think you need a legitimate speed threat on the outside to keep defenses honest.

As I've said before, I think Brandon Beane is easily a Top 5-10 General Manager in the NFL. But for someone who's nickname is "big baller," his drafts have become extremely conservative and predictable. That's why so many fans are frustrated. The franchise literally lost a half-dozen guys who were All-Pro talents in previous seasons. But instead of shooting for the stars and trying to land a big-time IMPACT player, Beane was comfortable just filling out the roster with solid and safe players. At this point, it feels like Beane's drafts are mostly on auto-pilot. He knows what kind of players fit Sean McDermott's defensive system. He knows what kind of character traits fit this locker room. He doesn't like taking guys with injury risks, and prioritizes versatility/special teams ability. He is willing to move around the board 4-5 spots, but tries to avoid parting with any picks 4th Round or earlier. - Rounds 1-2 he addresses the Bills two biggest needs. Every single time. - Rounds 3-5 he fills out depth on the roster at positions still needing bodies. - By the last few rounds, we are usually out of fillable roster spots and he's ready to go home.

I've given my fair-share of criticism towards the Bills over the last few days. But all this whining and crying over the Chiefs/Xavier Worthy is short-sighted and ridiculous. No disrespect to their franchise as a whole. But outside of Tyreek Hill and maybe Rashee Rice (who was looking OK the end of last season), the Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the worst drafting teams in the entire NFL when it comes to the Wide Receiver position. Chris Conley, DeMarcus Robinson, Jehu Chesson, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore. Not to mention trading for Kadarius Toney. This fear that Andy Reid is going to develop Worthy into some kind of unstoppable force is not rooted in fact or reality. Also, in my 30+ years watching football, I've seen zero correlation between lightning fast 40-Time runners and success at the WR position. That's why I wasn't personally high on Worthy. Being a track star does not make you a great receiver. There are hundreds, if not thousands of examples. And yes, the chances the Chiefs would still end up with Worthy (without us trading) are pretty good. Very possibly at 32 without it costing them any other draft capitol. Baltimore and Dallas weren't taking a receiver, so the Chiefs could have worked a trade with either to move up too. Maybe San Francisco takes Worthy instead of Ricky Pearsall, but they seem to value versatility more than pure one-dimensional speed. So basically, fans would have been happier if the Bills just stayed put at 32. Drafted Keon Coleman five spots earlier. Not moved up an entire round later in the draft from the 4th to 3rd Round. And then just let the Chiefs pick their guy anyway without a trade-up.

A large chunk of the fanbase is still in denial. Believe me, I went into the offseason with the same attitude. Cut a few aging vets. Make a few smart free agent signings. Kill the draft. Get some bargains post June as the cherry on top, and prepare for another AFC East title. Hopefully more this time. Other teams (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Francisco, etc.) seem to keep the ball rolling year after year after year. Why can't we? I laughed off all the media folks saying the window was closed, and the Bills would be rebuilding. But I was wrong. Without clearly saying it, Brandon Beane has sent the clear message we are NOT expecting a deep run this year. This offseason absolutely is a total rebuild. Every single move he's made screams that he's building for 2025, and I'm shocked that some people can't see it. The Jets are winning the AFC East. It won't be close. And we may even get passed by Miami this year.

My preference would have been to balance the losses/gains between 2024-2025. Going into the offseason, I absolutely expected us to make some tough moves (White, Poyer, Hyde) to clear cap space. But I figured we would offset those losses with some cheap moves in Free Agency, and be right back in the thick of things for another serious Super Bowl push. What I didn't expect was Beane to gut the roster and start rebuilding. There are three specific moves that I will point to, which prove that Beane is building for 2025 and not this upcoming season: 1) Only doing a partial restructure on Josh Allen's contract 2) Cutting Mitch Morse when he was still playing well 3) Trading Stefon Diggs for a pick next year without a specific plan to immediately replace his production Maybe Beane knows best and starting from scratch is really the best strategy for this organization. We can load up on young talent in this draft, watch them develop in 2024, clear a ton of cap space and hopefully everything will be ready to go again a year from now. Personally I think it's a mistake to waste a prime year of Josh Allen's career, and I find it depressing to take a step backwards when other franchises seem to keep it rolling season after season. I also think a lot of fans are currently in denial about where the current Bills roster stands.

If you listen to everything Brandon Beane says (and for a GM, he's usually pretty honest) in all his press conferences, you can get a pretty good idea what is going on. 1) He didn't have a lot of 1st Round grades this year. Although he won't say it explicitly, it's pretty clear they were all long gone by Pick #28. 2) He sees a lot of value in the 2nd-3rd Rounds this year, and thinks that's the place to load up. He really didn't want to part with their 2nd Rounder. 3) He was also ticked off at the NFL for taking away his 3rd Round comp pick, and was dead set on getting it back. 4) None of the players left on their board stood out enough to really care about moving down 4-5 spots. 5) Moving back 15-20 spots was too much. So if they go back again from 33, I only expect it to be a couple slots. 6) History also shows that if 1-2 players are on their board, he is not shy about trading to move up. And he won't trade down to risk losing them.

Pretend for a moment you aren't a Bills fan, and you are objectively looking at this roster from the outside. The team has quite obviously taken a step backwards at several key positions (Wide Receiver, Safety and Edge Rusher). Less talented players will now be expected to step into starting spots and play more snaps. At other positions, there is also less depth when the inevitable injuries happen (Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle). Not to mention the significant loss of leadership, with five longtime veterans walking out the door (Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Tre White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde). The biggest remaining star on defense (Matt Milano) is returning from a major leg injury. Yes, there are still 4 months left until the start of the regular season. But I'm struggling to see the pathway where we can fill all these spots with guys who can make an impact in 2024. The veteran FA market has pretty much dried up, and we won't have cap space until June 1. The rookies who could have made an immediate Year 1 impact are already gone. This team wasn't good enough in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Can anyone honestly say this roster looks BETTER in 2024?

Not sure why people are wanting ANOTHER slot receiver in Ladd McConkey? The best receiver on our team is Khalil Shakir, who was a slot receiver last year. We added Curtis Samuel, who has mostly played slot receiver over the last few years. Our next best receiving options are Tight Ends. It's not always about getting the most talented guy. You need to have some variety on the team, so you can attack all parts of the field. The Bills have pretty much nobody on the team who can challenge defenses on the outside or down the field.

Josh Allen will be 28 years old when the season starts. The absolute prime of his career. Yes. There is a reasonable explanation for all of Brandon Beane's offseason moves. Why he surprisingly cut Mitch Morse (along with several other veterans). Why he decided not to restructure all of Allen's contract, and did almost nothing in Free Agency. Why he traded Stefon Diggs and took on tons of dead cap. Why he decided not to move up in the draft this year for a Top 3 receiver. And I'm sure many of the level-headed and conservative critics are applauding those moves. The problem is that ALL of Beane's decisions are geared to help us in 2025. But nothing has been done to give the Bills a better chance at winning the Super Bowl in 2024. Our roster is significantly weaker than any point in the last 3-4 seasons, with much less depth across the board. Can anyone honestly compare our talent level versus the Chiefs (again), Bengals, Texans, Ravens... or even the Jets, and think we will be a serious contender in the AFC this year? We only get so many cracks at this thing before Allen's best years are behind him, and we seem to be content punting away this upcoming season and reloading for the future. Maybe we can argue it was the "smartest" thing for the franchise. But personally, I think it's depressing.

There is a good argument for trading up. There is a good argument for trading down. History shows that (on average) higher picks have a much better success rate, and less chance at busting. History also shows you can still get elite players later, and more picks gives you more chances at getting it right. I'm torn on which strategy I think is best for the Buffalo Bills right now. On one hand, the team is severely lacking top level talent. If someone was to ask who the All-Pros were on this team over the last 3-4 years, that list would include Stefon Diggs, Tre White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde... all gone. Outside of Josh Allen, the only top guys we have left are Von Miller (who may be done) and Matt Milano (coming back from a major leg injury). The hope is that young talent like Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Tyrell Bernard, etc. will step into those roles. But it's hard to argue against making a bold move for a guy who many think can be a Top 5 guy in the NFL for the next decade. At the same time, trading up will almost certainly cost starting talent at other positions. We could use help on the Defensive Line and Safety, and less Day 2 picks makes it much tougher to address. We would also be putting all our eggs in one basket... which as many have pointed out, could turn out like Sammy Watkins. He was also supposed to be a star, and looked the part early. His career was derailed by foot injuries, which isn't something anyone can predict.