mjt328

The Chiefs were literally a toenail away from going 0-1 in the first game of the season against the Ravens. They needed a BS pass interference penalty on 4th Down to beat the Bengals in Week 2. They needed yesterday's FG block to win against the Broncos. Not to mention the Falcons game, where Atlanta was driving for the go-ahead score and got stopped 4th-1 on the 13 yard line. Or the Tampa Bay Bucs game that went into overtime, and they won the coin flip. Everyone is acting like Buffalo is the final hope for stopping them from an undefeated season. But the Chiefs have barely scraped through all season long. They still have the Chargers, Texans and Steelers after us. And they have struggled in the past against division opponents like Las Vegas and Denver. Also don't forget that Cleveland upset the Ravens after switching to Jameis Winston.

Most people felt the biggest problem this season was going to be the schedule. Many of our opponents so far (Miami and NY Jets biggest of all) have been huge disappointments. It's also important to remember that our most difficult stretch (Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Lions) is still upcoming. Even if the AFC East is already wrapped up, it will be interesting to see how we handle the next month. I think it will really tell us whether this team is a Top 5 contender, or looking at another early postseason exit.

I'm sure this game will be extremely well officiated, and the NFL referees will be calling penalties equally against both sides.

Lots of good ideas already. Here are my two big ones: Utilize technology wherever possible to ensure accuracy. There is no reason we shouldn't be using a sensor to determine where a ball is spotted already. I'm sure there are ways we can use the same idea to determine if a player steps out of bounds, crosses the goal line, which side moves first on Offside/false starts, etc. Keep a full team of officials in the booth, constantly reviewing calls and allowing them to quickly overturn ANY mistake made by the guys on the field. If there is a question, huddle for 20 seconds and wait for word from upstairs. I also feel like there are WAY too many "vague" rules, which are not consistently interpreted from play to play. Holding. Pass Interference. Illegal Contact. Roughing the Passer. Unsportsmanlike Conduct. Not sure the specifics on fixing this, but something needs to be done to make sure these kinds of penalties are done consistently across the league every single game.

Agree he's got bad blood towards the Bills organization. Not sure that means he was aiming for the head and trying to hurt our players, or just extra motivated to make a huge play. Hopefully it was the latter. Playing safety in the NFL has to be tough. Coleman was probably going to catch that pass if he didn't make a huge hit, and that likely meant the Bills were going to be in field goal position to win the game.

In my opinion, the most important thing for the Bills is to be healthy rolling into the postseason. If we can't get the #1 seed and first round bye, I'm not really sure anything else is critically important. At this point, it's impossible to determine how seeding will look. What happens if the Bengals sneak into the playoffs and land the #7 spot? If that happens, it may be more advantageous in the Wild Card Round to have a lower seed. I would rather play the Steelers, Chargers, Broncos, Colts, etc. And how many times has the weather in Orchard Park worked to our DISADVANTAGE? Imagine we have a matchup against the Ravens, and the forecast is snow and heavy winds. I would rather get into a Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson shootout, as opposed to a heavy ground game. And considering the Chiefs are now carried by the defense, it may be similar against them.

Loved Jordan Poyer while he was here. Since he left, I'm sensing some sour grapes towards the Bills organization though. Some players don't seem to understand the business-side of things, and why our team needed to move on. Part of me gets it... a player sacrifices his health to help a team win, then gets no loyalty in contract negotiations. Part of me doesn't... same player still becomes a millionaire, and the front office has an obligation to make the best decisions for the Buffalo Bills team. I doubt it's a coincidence that Poyer made very questionable hits on Khalil Shakir in the first game, and then again with Keon Coleman. My hope is that he's just extra motivated to make a big play against his old team. Unfortunately, it comes across to many fans as a bitter ex getting dirty for revenge.

It's all about the Quarterback. The 1990s were owned by the Bills (Jim Kelly), with the Dolphins close on their heels (Dan Marino). From 2001-2019, nobody could touch the New England Patriots (Tom Brady). Now we are back on the Bills with Josh Allen. Until those teams can land a QB on a similar level as Allen, it's going to be tough for them to make progress towards the division. The Jets took a big swing, and it hasn't worked out well. Aaron Rodgers is not the same player he used to be. Just looking at his face during games, you really have to wonder if he regrets not retiring. Last year was a total loss. They had to fire their coach a few games into this season, and now even a wild card seems like a tall task. They can void Rodgers contract after 2025, and it almost seems inevitable they will be starting over again at that point. The Dolphins are now stuck in the Tua boat, which is going nowhere for them. He's too good for them to let walk. He's not good enough to put the team on his shoulders. Not to mention the massive injury risk. Before long, that contract is going to start weighing on the salary cap, which means less supporting talent around him. Age is also slowly becoming a factor on that roster. The Patriots are way too early to tell. Rookie quarterback. Beginning of a total rebuild.

On paper, the 2022 team probably had the most overall roster talent. There was a reason everyone was picking us to win the Super Bowl before that season. For the first few games, they really looked the unbeatable (Rams, Titans). Starting in Week 3 injuries started tearing us down (Micah Hyde, Von Miller obviously the biggest), and they never reached full potential. I think the high expectations, the injuries and the Damar Hamlin situation really drained them by season's end. There are pieces of this roster I really like. This is easily the best RB room that we've had during that period. Same with O-Line and Tight End. If we ever get to see Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard on the field together, it would also be the best at that position group. Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas and Taron Johnson are probably the best combined CB group, although Tre White was the best single player at that position. At the same time, this is easily the weakest Safety duo we've fielded since Sean McDermott became the coach. Wide Receiver looked good when everyone was playing (for one week). Outside of that, it's been the worst unit we've given Josh Allen to work with. The D-Line has the players, but is really playing poorly this season outside of Groot and some splash plays from AJ Epenesa.

The Bills strategy is going to be good enough to win 70-75% of the time, and keep the rest of our games pretty close. That's why we keep winning the AFC East, and finish high in most of the analytic charts by season's end. The problem is that winning a Super Bowl requires a final stretch of defeating 3-4 of the best teams in football, most of whom have elite Quarterbacks and/or very smart coaching staffs. One slip-up and the season is over. Most opponents get impatient against the Bills, because they are afraid of keeping up with Josh Allen. So they gradually get away from the run and short/quick passing game. Which of course plays directly into what we want. But if our offense starts sluggish in the first-half, and teams are willing to consistently stick with the ground game...that's when we start running into trouble. For some reason, the Chiefs have the reputation for being an explosive offense. But in reality, they have successfully morphed into a patient dink/dunk attack. The Ravens are absolutely deadly on the ground, and would certainly lean on it again in a rematch. If the Bengals squeak into the playoffs, they have proven to be the exact kind of team we don't want to play. If the Bills were to make the Super Bowl, similar issues would arise against the Lions, 49ers, etc. This is our path to a Lombardi trophy. If the Bills are just going to accept that teams will destroy them on the ground, they can pretty much just count on another early postseason exit.

I would be very surprised if the Bills don't move for a D-Line player today. Yes, everyone knows that our Defense plays light boxes and invites teams to run the ball. But we can't just have games like the Ravens or Dolphins, and expect to have success in the postseason. We must do a better job stopping the run, and we must do a better job rushing the passer. Outside of Groot and the occasional splash play from AJ Epenesa, this group just isn't getting it done. Our interior has been very disappointing all season. It's fair to question whether Daquan Jones is on the downside of his career (age). And Ed Oliver always seems to disappear when the 1-Tech next to him isn't playing well. And now the injuries are starting to pile up.

Honestly, I couldn't believe it when they brought the Field Goal unit onto the field. I kept yelling "what is he doing?" over and over, at McDermott. All I could picture is missing it, Miami completing a quick 7-yard out, and then making their own long FG to win the game.

I was talking to a longtime friend of mine, who is also a Dolphins fan. To him, they suffered through the Tom Brady/Patriots years (just like us)... only to immediately jump into the Josh Allen/Bills years. He has slowly come to realize that having a good franchise QB like Tua just isn't enough. It's just giving them a false sense of hope. Because we have an all-time great and future HOF quarterback under center. Maybe they can squeak out a win against us every 3-4 years. But that's about it. At least during the 90s, they always felt like Dan Marino gave them a legitimate shot to win the division and compete. I really can't imagine what things are like for Jets fans. They haven't really been in the conversation since Joe Namath in the 60s.

People keep saying the Jets remaining schedule is easy. Not so sure. Outside of the Bills on the road, they don't have any elite teams left to play. But outside of the Jaguars, I don't really see any pushovers either. The Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams all have a shot at winning the NFC West. None of them are going down without a fight. The Dolphins are healthy again, and also think they've got a decent shot at making a Wild Card run. The Colts are a different team with Joe Flacco under center, and will also be pushing for the playoffs. Don't forget the Jets got to this 3-6 record with their easiest games (Pats twice and Titans) already played. They haven't looked good this season (at all), and people are really expecting them to run the table? Once a team loses more than 7 games, the chances of making the playoffs start dropping huge.

In the NFL, there are different kinds of separation. There are deep burner/speed guys, who just blow past guys on go routes and post routes. This is going to cause the most yards of separation, and the Bills don't really have these kinds of guys. Haven't since John Brown was on the roster. That is going to knock our number down right from the start. Then there are short area quick guys, who get open with elusive juke moves and route running 5-15 yards downfield. Most of our guys fall in this bucket. Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid. Also Curtis Samuel if he ever gets healthy and is utilized properly. This is what Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley provided the offense in the past as well. Last you have guys who don't really create much distance/separation from defensive backs, but can still make catches with their size and positioning. This is the kind of receiver Keon Coleman is. Jump balls. Back shoulder throws. Contested catches. I would probably throw Dawson Knox into this category too. Note the Bills had their biggest issues in the passing game when Shakir was hurt, and before Cooper arrived. This left them with only one good separator (Kincaid). So opponents could just play a single-high safety and shift more attention to him. Mack Hollins isn't a guy who will consistently get open. And it's been a gradual process for Josh Allen to trust a rookie in contested situations.

In the Miami and Jacksonville games, the Bills were so far ahead that Josh Allen did nothing in the second half. Against Arizona, he had only three passes at halftime. The Ravens game was an anomaly... statistically his worst performance since his rookie season. Also, the Bills just added a #1 WR to the team a week ago. A lot of weird stuff over the first seven games. My general feeling is that Allen's "pace" is well below where he's going to actually finish the season.

The frustrating part about the MVP race is how the parameters for the award keep changing. Last year, Josh Allen was the statistically superior player by far (44 touchdowns vs. 29 touchdowns). But the media decided to overhype his turnovers every single week... to the point that most NFL viewers actually believed Allen was having a bad season. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson was considered a pretty 'meh' candidate for the award until the Christmas game against the 49ers. Big primetime game at the end of the season, plus the Number One seed. Got opinion on his side at the right time. This year, Allen is (slightly) behind him in yards/touchdowns. The Bills and Ravens have identical records. But suddenly the turnovers (Allen with zero interceptions) don't matter to voters. Patrick Mahomes has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and some are even arguing for him to win the award.

This is the Bills problem in a nutshell. Sean McDermott doesn't believe in breaking from his scheme. Ever He is fully confident that (regardless of an opponent's strengths), the Bills will always come out on top if the players execute everything properly for 4 full quarters. If the Week 4 game against Baltimore wasn't going to push him into a 4-3 alignment or heavier boxes, then absolutely nothing will. And honestly, McDermott is probably right going against 90-95% of the NFL. The regular season winning percentage is proof. It's just those pesky 3-4 top teams like the Chiefs and Bengals, who we inevitably run into during the postseason. Stay consistent/patient with the rushing attack, short passes and screens... they know this defense will struggle. I would LOVE to see McDermott start experimenting with different ideas/play-calls. Especially early in games, since we are getting toasted anyway. Develop some kind of pivot, just in case our normal thing isn't doing the job.

Some teams like to adjust their gameplan heavily from week to week, depending on the strengths/weaknesses of their opponent. The Bills are very reluctant to break from their normal scheme, under any circumstances. Nickel. Four man rush. Very little blitzing. Mostly zone coverage. This kind of defense is naturally going to be vulnerable to the run, and short passes. My belief is that McDermott likes to come out of the gate with very "vanilla" playcalling, similar to what teams would call in preseason. That way he can get a general feel for what the other team is trying to do, without blowing all his best stuff early. If the other team has done their homework, they know exactly where and how to attack us. If they can stay disciplined with the run and short passes, they can usually move the ball early. As the game goes on, a few things usually happen. One is that our opponent starts getting nervous/impatient about keeping up with Josh Allen and the offense. They gradually start breaking away from the run and short passes, which of course plays directly into our strengths. This is what McDermott means by "complimentary" football. The second is that our coaches break from that vanilla playcalling. There are some small adjustments, and the occasional blitz. We continue to run the same basic scheme throughout the game, but get way more creative with how it's disguised. All of this works 70-75% of the time, and the Bills come out on top. I just wish McDermott would come up with something different for the postseason. Teams like the Chiefs, Bengals and Ravens are too disciplined and talented to break from the gameplan. They know our weak points and they will continue to attack it for 4 quarters.

Because professional sports is entertainment above everything else. And for some weird reason, human beings seem to enjoy their sports way more when it is accompanied by compelling storylines and narratives. Just like movies and tv shows, every story needs a big star. Someone who can be immediately associated with the letters N-F-L, and recognized worldwide by people that don't even watch football. That person has been Tom Brady for the last 2 decades. The torch has now been passed to Patrick Mahomes. You won't see the sports media as a whole leveling any kind of significant criticism at the face of the NFL, because it's simply bad for business. As it stands, the NFL's narrative is that Kansas City is the dynasty that cannot be stopped. They have the golden boy QB. They have the guy dating the pop superstar. They obviously have the championships to back it up. Yes, they could very easily have 2-3 losses this season. But with the 49ers now behind them, talk will quickly start rolling of them going undefeated. Now they have 31 other fanbases tuning in weekly hoping desperately for them to finally drop a game. That's the power of a storyline. Honestly, I also think the NFL wants a legitimate rival for the Chiefs and Mahomes. They really want to see another Manning vs. Brady. They have tried very hard to promote both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but neither has managed to seal the deal with a ring. Once one of them does, I think the narrative will change and more respect will follow.

How about some plays under center? Motion? Play action? Easy swing passes to the flats? Designed roll-outs? Quick curl routes? Why does this team always send out high school level Offensive Coordinators? No creativity. No understanding of how the game flows. No ability to counter after the other team adjusts. Once a team figures out our top 10-15 plays, we just smash our faces into a brick wall over and over.

Joe Brady = Ken Dorsey How is it that NOBODY on this offense can ever get open? Josh Allen takes the snap, holds the ball for 3 seconds, bails from the pocket to buy another 3 seconds... and we STILL HAVE NOBODY OPEN!!!!!! Yet other teams: Snap. Two step drop. Throw to wide open receiver. Over and over and over.

The Von Miller "one player away" plan failed, mostly because of a torn ACL. I agree that we need to draft a stud player on the D-Line, and that Brandon Beane has not been able to find enough premium difference makers. At the same time, I don't think the difference between Kansas City and Buffalo is big... when both teams are at full strength. The difference between Patrick Mahomes being the NFL's top QB and Josh Allen lagging behind him at #2... is Andy Reid's offensive genius. Over the last four years, they have been almost neck/neck statistically. If the Bills could land a really good OC, I'm confident Allen would jump ahead. As a head coach though, I'm not sure Reid is much better than Sean McDermott. Anyone who says otherwise probably wasn't watching the NFL before 2019. Reid was that guy who went 21 YEARS before winning his first championship, constantly falling short in the playoffs. Prior to Mahomes being drafted, he was the literal definition of being unable to get over the hump. Spagnolo's history as a DC is pretty up and down. People tend to forget his time with the Rams, his second stint with the Giants, or even his first few seasons with the Chiefs. As a defensive mind, McDermott has a more consistent track-record and seems to get more out of the talent he's been given. I do agree the Chiefs defense has surpassed ours over the last 2 seasons, but that is mostly talent/age/injury related. Kansas City's defense carried that Super Bowl run last year. But before that, they were just as much of a liability in the postseason. We definitely don't have a defensive player on the level of Chris Jones. Most teams don't. Not sure Travis Kelce is worth mentioning anymore. I don't think the slow start is a fluke. His best days are behind him.

This is an underrated aspect of team building for GMs. It's not just simply a contest to collect talent and hit on draft picks. You also must consider development time, and factor that into when young players are actually ready to take the reigns. Linebacker is a position where the Brandon Beane did an A+ job. Terrell Bernard was drafted a year before the Bills actually needed him. Once Tremaine Edmunds left in free agency, he had an entire year of development under his belt and immediately stepped into the MLB role. No learning curve or rookie struggles. And he actually played better than Edmunds ever did. Wide Receiver is a position where Beane didn't really do enough. Even without the unexpected Stefon Diggs fallout, he knew that Gabe Davis was likely to walk out the door. Maybe he should have been more aggressive going up for Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison. Instead we doubled-up on Tight End... and we really don't use both guys fully.

The Bills seem to like (at least) one of their outside receivers being a big-bodied, strong run blocker. Even if he's not very good at actually catching passes. It's been Gabe Davis the last few years. Now it seems to be Mack Hollins. And since the team has been very run-heavy, he's getting the majority of snaps. One of my big complaints (so far) with Joe Brady and the offense, is that he seems to pigeonhole the skillsets on our receivers and it makes our passing game way too predictable. Curtis Samuel is basically our gadget guy, and isn't being used much beyond that. We were hoping for what Kyle Shanahan does with Deebo Samuel, and instead we got Isaiah McKenzie 2.0. It's painfully obvious every time he's on the field and you can tell other DBs are also catching on to the gimmick. In the same way, Khalil Shakir is playing almost exclusively in the slot, even though he has deep speed and could be good moving around. Keon Coleman is used exclusively on the outside, when he could also be effective as a big slot inside. MVS is our deep threat, and him being on the field pretty much telegraphs we are hoping for a shot downfield. Not much creativity with the tight ends either.