mjt328

Right now, the Bills defense would probably look like this, depending on the package: - AJ Klein starting at SLB in base 4-3 looks - Taron Johnson starting at NCB in pure nickel defense against 3 wide receivers - Siran Neal starting at NCB in the big nickel From what I understand (from those who studied Carolina's old defensive packages), Sean McDermott actually prefers to go with the Big Nickel formation more often. We just haven't had an exact fit in his first 3 years here. The recent interest in Kyle Dugger and Jeremy Chinn is causing several to connect the dots.

Is it a HUGE NEED. Absolutely not. But in all honesty, we don't have ANY really big needs this year. Any position we draft is going to be playing a limited number of snaps as a rookie. Lots of people want a Running Back. Whoever we draft is going to splitting carries with Devin Singletary. Lots of people want a Wide Receiver. A draftee would be #4 at best behind Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley. Lots of people want a Defensive End. A rookie would rotate behind Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Quinton Jefferson. Lots of people want a Cornerback. We already have a competition of Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and EJ Gaines opposite Tre White. Our current Big Nickel is usually Siran Neal, who is better suited as a pure backup Safety. Upgrading Neal would give us more ability to cover TEs, while not sacrificing run support. It's another chess piece for our coaching staff.

Do you ever notice how teams like Baltimore sit there in the 20s every draft, and watch highly rated players (this year it was linebacker Patrick Queen) just fall into their laps? The reason why? Because they usually go into the draft without any glaring needs. I've been waiting SO LONG for the Bills to reach this point. Where they aren't forced to target a WR or a CB or an OT, and they can just let the talent drop to them. There are places on the roster that could use better depth, but nothing glaring that we need to freak-out if they go somewhere else.

First Round completed. Lots of picks before the Bills go. Some interesting names still on the board, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade up into the 40s. The Top 3 running backs (Swift, Taylor, Dobbins) are all still available. Three potential 1st Round edge rushers (Epenesa, Gross-Matos, Baun) are still there There were big runs on WR, CB and OT. But there are still some solid names left, who were considered late 1st/early 2nd talents. Higgins, Shenault, Mims, Pittman at WR, Jones at OT, Diggs, Fulton and Johnson at CB. Another popular choice is Safety, and somehow none have been picked yet. McKinney was considered a Top 20 pick. Delpit was not far behind. If the Bills go here, I think they are looking at a specific kind of fit for the defense however.

Your list is good, although I don't know if Matt Milano will command $10 million per. The good news is, we can stagger these contracts. We won't need to pay everyone big money at the same time. Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano become free agents next year Tre White becomes a free agent in 2022 Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds in 2023 Ed Oliver not until 2024 Starting next season, I think the Bills strategy will shift towards building almost entirely through the draft and then re-signing their own. Veteran additions will be reasonable, and not big money. By the time Oliver is needing a new contract, guys like Mitch Morse and Stefon Diggs will be in their early 30's and should require less investment to keep on the roster.

The 2014 WR Class was the best I could remember, up until this point. Everybody knew that class was going to be fantastic, and for the most part (unless you traded up to #4 to take Sammy Watkins...) it didn't disappoint. Personally, I think this class is stronger at the very top. The 2014 class was a little bit better in the back-half of the 1st/early 2nd. They look to be about the same in the late 2nd Round and early 3rd. This class has more potential on Day 3. If those two classes were merged and re-drafted (based purely on their draft ranking out of college), I think the 1st Round prospects would go something like this: CeeDee Lamb Jerry Jeudy Sammy Watkins Henry Ruggs Mike Evans Odell Beckham Brandin Cooks Kelvin Benjamin Tee Higgins I don't think the Bills consider any trade-ups until a player they covet is withing striking distance (meaning 10 or less picks), and they are scared he will not fall. I'm fully expecting them to move around on Friday and Saturday, but they won't be making huge jumps.

This WR class is ridiculously deep. And any scout saying different is blowing smoke. There are two elite prospects who would go Top 5-10 in almost any class: Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. Then you have one borderline elite guy, who is sure-shot First Round in Henry Ruggs. After that, you have about 10-12 guys who would deserve 1st Round consideration in almost any year. Many of these guys are getting extra scrutiny and will be pushed down, simply because there are a multitude of other options for WR-needy teams: Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Chase Claypool. And then you have dozens of potential sleeper guys, who could slip to Day 3 and be impact starters in the NFL. Van Jefferson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyler Johnson, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Gabriel Davis, etc. I've been following the draft for 30+ years, and I've never seen a class with this much potential.

Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers, Jaguars, Raiders All these teams pick at least once (a couple pick twice) before the Patriots are on board. Anything is possible, but the Patriots would probably need to package multiple 1st Rounders from future years to get high enough.

The Running Back we select needs to compliment Devin Singletary. Which means he should be good in areas that Singletary isn't. Where Singletary is shifty, the new guy should be strong, powerful and good running between the tackles. He must be great at ball security. Someone we can use in goal line situations, and grinding out the clock in the 4th Quarter. At the same time, I don't want someone that is one-dimensional and cannot catch the ball. The defense should not be able to key on run vs. pass based on who is in the game.

I don't believe Brandon Beane is targeting any specific position at this point. Everything is going to depend on how the rest of the draft falls, which is something even he can't know for sure. He's filled the roster to the point that nothing is a pressing need. Even the positions that Bills fans are hotly debating about (RB, OL, DE, CB) have solid starters already in place. Nobody we draft will immediately step into a starting role, and it's very possible they will be waiting until least 2021 before a starting opportunity even arises. In my opinion, we could literally go anywhere with the pick, outside of QB or Kicker. Sitting at #54, Beane admitted that he probably isn't going to trade back into the 1st Round. Which makes sense, because it would certainly require next year's 1st Rounder to move up over 25-30 spots. It's a very pricey move, and there just isn't anything we need bad enough to do that. However, we do know that Beane's draft board puts players into tiers and he likes moving around to get players he wants. If he sees a drop-off in quality coming and needs to jump 5-6 spots, I could still see us trading up a couple slots.

I always go with the eye test first. Stats can often be misleading, and don't always account for game situations. For example, I recall the Bills defensive team from around 2003-2004 (Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher, etc.). By all accounts, they were pretty good in most statistical categories. But I feel like that unit was fairly overrated, because they always choked in key situations. When it counted, they could never make the 3rd Down/4th Quarter stop. On the flip-side, I think our defense from 2017-2018 was probably better than stats showed. They were always being put into bad field position, due to turnovers and an offense that was constantly going 3-Out. But if you are going to compare stats, the best one to start with is definitely points allowed. Especially when you consider that our defense is specifically designed to be "bend, but don't break." The second stat is probably yards per attempt (total yards allowed means virtually nothing). The third is probably turnovers.

With technology like Zoom, it sounds like team personnel will be able to communicate the same as normal. The GM, coaches and scouts will still be able to talk about what is going on. They just won't technically be in the same room. The process of looking at draft boards, calling other teams with trade offers, actually making picks will pretty much be the same. I think all of this will work out fine. The biggest change in this year's draft process is the inability to meet with prospects. I think this will cause many "red flag" prospects (whether through injury or character) to drop farther than normal. Team doctors can't do their due diligence on injuries, which makes the risk higher. Coaches can't sit-down with prospects and get a feel for their knowledge and fit. This is where some creative GMs may find an advantage.

We don't know for sure if doctors will ever come up with a vaccine. And even if they do, it will be at least 2021 before they can complete full testing/clinical trials and be confident it doesn't cause disastrous side-effects. If people are planning to wait for a vaccine before they are willing to re-open society, then a lot of these things we love are going to disappear permanently. And professional sports are not exempt from that. Even billionaires don't have an infinite amount of money to just sit on the sidelines without income for 12-18 months. I was reading yesterday that Disney is losing $20-30 million PER DAY by having their parks closed. Many of these NFL owners are taking huge losses on multiple areas of their business. Listening to health experts, there are multiple ways (even without a vaccine) that we can gradually work our way back into normalcy. This includes getting back to large public gatherings like sports. One is by offering extensive testing, which can identify who has the virus currently (so they can be quarantined faster) and who has already recovered from it. Once a person has recovered, they are immune and can be released to operate as normal without being a risk of getting infected again or being a carrier and infecting another person. This is called herd immunity. It's very likely that MANY people have already had this and didn't even know. As you can imagine, coming up with 328 million tests for every individual in the country is a very tall task. So right now, the tests are being prioritized for those showing serious symptoms. But as time goes along, it's more likely we can achieve the ability to test most, if not all Americans. Second is by discovering medicines, drugs and treatments for the virus. This will not take anywhere near as long as a vaccine, especially if something is found among currently FDA-approved drugs. There are already multiple treatments (specifically those currently used to treat Malaria and Ebola) which are already being prescribed by doctors for critically-ill patients and proving to be very effective against this virus. Third is by making adjustments to our practices at large gatherings. Requiring people to wear masks. Taking temperatures at the door/gate. Taking extra steps to sanitize. Etc.

Agreed. If Laviska Shenault becomes a really good WR, then all the other stuff is just a bonus. My thing is that if you ONLY look at his receiving skills, there are probably a dozen (or more) guys in this class who have greater potential at the WR position. Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, K.J. Hamler, Michael Pittman, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Chase Claypool, etc. And then if you look at Shenault ONLY as a running back, he's probably not even in the Top 20. Looking at the Bills roster, I don't see Shenault displacing our Top 3 receivers anytime soon. And if you are looking for contributions in the running game from a 2nd Round Pick, we would certainly get more production our of a pure RB like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, etc. Which ultimately means Shenault's most effective role would be displacing Isaiah McKenzie and Andre Roberts on the depth chart. Not exactly something I'm looking for before the 4th Round.

Listening to the doctors and medical "experts" talk about this, I have yet to hear someone suggest a vaccine could realistically be available until at least next year (which in NFL terms means the 2021 season). Now, it's reasonable that medicine/treatment will be readily available before that point. Especially if they find currently FDA-approved drugs are effective. But there is no way the health community is going to approve vaccinating the entire U.S. population without extensive testing on side-effects first. With that said... It's totally unrealistic that we can all just hide inside for the next 12-18 months, or that our government can keep pumping out stimulus checks to keep the economy stabilized for that period of time. Over 6 million Americans lost their jobs JUST last month. We are already looking at a potential great depression, and it's ONLY been 3-4 weeks since we started locking things down. So unless you want to say goodbye (possibly permanently) to everything that involves people getting together.... sporting events, concerts, theaters, theme parks, restaurants, bars, etc... then society will need to find ways to adapt with the virus floating around.

It's hard to place value on a "gadget" player... which is exactly what Laviska Shenault projects to be. It always sounds great on paper to have that kind of versatility, and a guy who can play multiple positions. But most of the time, NFL offensive coordinators struggle to find ways to actually use them in games. I've been watching this sport for 30-plus years, and these types usually end up with around 5 touches per week. When you really need yardage, are you going to take RB carries away from Devin Singletary and give them to Shenault? Probably not. On a big 3rd Down, are you going to take Stephon Diggs, John Brown or Cole Beasley off the field, when Shenault is nowhere near that level of WR? Probably not. Which means Shenault's true contribution on offense becomes mostly trick plays. And before long, defenses start expecting trick plays whenever Shenault comes onto the field, which lowers his effectiveness even farther. If you have an extremely creative OC, the ceiling for a guy like this is probably Percy Harvin. Who in his best season was about 950 yards receiving/350 yards rushing. In most cases though, you are more likely to get Cordarrelle Patterson.

When it comes to professional sports, you don't want a team that relies on nostalgia more than reality. This is especially true in football, and even more of the case at the running back position. Shady was an incredible RB in this league, and I loved having him as a Buffalo Bill. But age has clearly taken its toll on the guy. He played for the Super Bowl champions last year, on a team without a great running game, and was a healthy scratch for the entire postseason. He's done. We need another rookie to pair with Devin Singletary.

Both are terrible fits for the New England offense. Cam Newton has always been most effective as a dual-threat, thanks to his running ability and big arm. His strength has never been accuracy, patience or dissecting defensive schemes. Pretty much the complete opposite of Tom Brady. This is without starting to consider the way injuries have taken a toll. There is a reason that most people believe Cam is done as a starting/franchise QB in this league. Jameis Winston is purely a pocket-passer, but he is totally reckless with turnovers. If Belichick is counting on the defense to carry the Patriots this year, the absolute last thing he needs is a guy who throws 3-4 interceptions a game. After 5 years in the league, I doubt this is something coaches can still fix. And with the current WR weapons the Patriots have, I doubt Winston will be able to duplicate the touchdowns he threw with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. As mentioned, the other problem is cap space. The Patriots are currently at about $1.1 million, which isn't even enough to sign their draft picks. I can't see either Newton or Winston agreeing to play for less than $15 million per year, which would put them at the bottom of the NFL in starting QBs - not counting the guys still on rookie deals.

I would agree with this. Doug Whaley generally had a good eye for talent. He very rarely bombed his top picks, and actually put together a decent collection of talent during his time here. But in this league, being a good scout is not enough to be a good General Manager. GMs need to be responsible for constructing a UNIFIED team, where the scouts, coaches, coordinators and players work as a single unit. It's not just about collecting talent. Whaley often talked about "just getting good players" and then letting the coaches figure out how to use them. This is exactly why he failed. He was never of the same mind as Doug Marrone or Rex Ryan, and the pieces never fit together. GMs also need to have an understanding for how to structure contracts and how the salary cap works. He needs to plan how the financial puzzle will work 2, 3, 4, 5 years down the road. Whaley handed these duties over to Jim Overdorf, and it showed. Even without a franchise QB, the Bills drifted closer and closer to cap hell every season. Look at a team like Cleveland, and you see a similar dynamic playing out. The team has been drafting fairly well, and now has a strong collection of talent. But the pieces don't fit, the GM/Coach don't seem on the same page, and they are clearly underachieving in the victory column.

CJ Spiller had a Pro Bowl season where he rushed over 1200 yards. The next season, he had over 900 yards. He was a decent NFL player, who should have been viewed as a change-of-pace RB instead of a 3-down workhorse. The problem with Spiller was expectations, since he was a Top-10 pick. If he was taken in the 3rd Round, people would have been fine with his career production. Guys like Aaron Maybin and Torrell Troup were worthless, and had no business even being on NFL rosters.

1) We would probably need to give up our 2021 and 2022 first rounders (at the very least) to move up that high. 2) While this would certainly make our WRs very difficult for defenses to cover, it would not make our offense unstoppable. We still need to get good blocking from the O-Line (especially if we are going 4-wide all the time) and we need Josh Allen to make the right decision on where to go with his throws. 3) No prospect is bust-proof. As much as I like Lamb, he still has a chance to under-perform to expectations once he gets to the big leagues. Sammy Watkins is a great example.

It's interesting to see the responses, and what qualifies in people's minds as a "bad" selection. There are several players I've seen mentioned who were actually very productive NFL players. CJ Spiller, Donte Whitner, Willis McGahee, Sammy Watkins, etc. But Bills fans still consider them terrible picks because they were selected too early OR because we passed on someone really good to take them. Personally, I would go with player(s) who were ALL of the above.... drafted way too early, with much better players sitting on the board, and who ended up having terrible NFL careers. With all of that in consideration, it's really hard not to go with someone like Aaron Maybin, Erik Flowers or Torrell Troup.

I'll concede that it's possible a rookie RB eventually displaces Devin Singletary as the technical "starter" at some point down the line. Although I would say the situation is more likely to be a 1A vs. 1B situation, where the heavier workload depends on situation. My curiosity is where this Top 20 in rushing and Top 45 in receiving number comes from. Is this based just purely on Singletary's 2019 stats? Because if so, you should really be reminded that Singletary was barely given any carries in the first quarter of the season, and then spent four games injured. He really didn't get rolling for us until mid-season. If you take his average over the last 8 active games (he was inactive Week 17) and spread them over a full season, he would have over 1200 yards rushing (which is tied for #6 in the NFL).

At this point, drafting a WR isn't about need. It's about value. Nobody we draft this year is going to start, barring injury or absolutely exceptional play in training camp/preseason. Our biggest "needs" are considered by many to be Running Back (rookie would split carries with Devin Singletary), Edge Rusher (rookie would be in a rotation behind Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison - and possibly Trent Murphy and Darryl Johnson), Defensive Back (rookie would be the nickel DB behind Siran Neal and Taron Johnson) or maybe Linebacker (rookie would fight for reps behind AJ Klein). Mock Drafts keep having us draft WR, because of the crazy depth of this class. We could probably wait until the 3rd Round and get someone who would be a back-end 1st Rounder in most drafts.

I'm a big believer that GMs shouldn't throw out 1st Round draft picks or big contacts at the Running Back position. Totally agree there. But let's not go to the extreme the opposite direction. The sweet spot for drafting a Running Back is the 2nd-3rd Round. After that, the probability of success drops pretty quickly. Just like every other position. Most Day 3/UDFA picks aren't going to make it. Even playing RB. People consider RB a need, because you technically need two backs in today's NFL. Devin Singletary was very good as a rookie, but the drop-off was huge when Frank Gore or TJ Yeldon entered the game.