mjt328

No NFL games are easy. But a difficult win counts just as much as a blowout. The Cardinals, Broncos, Raiders and Jets should have improved teams in 2020. No doubt about it. But I still look at the Bills, and believe they are significantly better than any of these teams. They should beat them. In fact, the only teams on the schedule I would argue have a better roster are the Chiefs and 49ers.

I always figure that we will win a couple we aren't expected to, and then lose a couple we probably shouldn't. It pretty-much evens out at the end. For example in 2019, I was pretty much spot-on predicting the Bills to go 10-6 before the season. But I definitely expected them to lose to the Cowboys, and did not expect them to lose to the Jets in Week 17. I figured the Titans, Browns, Steelers and Ravens to be toss-ups, and the Bills sure enough went 2-2 in those games. This year, we should absolutely be heavily favored against the Dolphins x 2, Patriots x 2, Raiders and Chargers. That is 6 games nobody should be picking us to lose, unless they consider last year's success a total fluke, or they think Jarrett Stidham will be a stud. The Chiefs and 49ers are currently the class of the league, and should still be favored over the Bills at this point. So these are 2 games we likely lose. At this point, the big toss-ups would be the Rams, Titans, Seahawks and Steelers. The teams with the biggest chance to improve are the Jets x 2, Broncos and Cardinals. If the Bills can at least split these games, they repeat at 10-6 and still easily win the AFC East. Personally, I think they have a good chance to do better than split - putting my expectation clearly in the 11-12 win camp (can't quite decide yet).

Before the season, I usually try to tackle the schedule from a couple different angles. Based purely on last year's (2019 season) results, the Bills had a better record than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos). They also had a better point differential than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos). Of course, teams won't be exactly the same as last year. And my "objective" non-scientific opinion is that the: - Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, Steelers and Broncos have improved their rosters since the 2019 season - Rams, Patriots and Chargers have gotten worse since the 2019 season - Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers are roughly the same as the 2019 season What makes this schedule so tricky to predict, is the poor/below average franchises in 2019 were usually the ones who apparently made the biggest strides in the offseason. Fortunately, I also believe the Bills have improved from last year's squad. Since Josh Allen is generally considered our weakest link, I also wanted to do a comparison of Quarterback opponents. - In my opinion, we only play two elite guys this year (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), who are significantly better than Allen. Due to unknowns about his injury/age, I would consider Ben Roethlisberger an iffy addition to this category. - We also play a handful of mid-level/veteran QBs who are inconsistent in performance (Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo, probably one game against Ryan Fitzpatrick) and could easily be surpassed by Allen this year. - The rest of the games are against Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Jarrett Stidham and Drew Lock. I suspect Tua takes over by Week 17 and it's likely that Justin Herbert will replace Tyrod Taylor before Week 12. If we lose to the elite guys, split against the vets and beat everyone else, that comes out to 11 wins. Those factors considered, here are my predictions on : 1 - Jets (Home) - Win, 1-0 2 - Dolphins (Road) - Win, 2-0 3 - Rams (Home) - Win, 3-0 4 - Raiders (Road) - Win, 4-0 5 - Titans (Road) - Loss, 4-1 6 - Chiefs (Home) - Loss, 4-2 7 - Jets (Road) - Win, 5-2 8 - Patriots (Home) - Win, 6-2 9 - Seahawks (Home) - Loss, 6-3 10 - Cardinals (Road) - Win, 7-3 11 - Bye 12 - Chargers (Home) - Win, 8-3 13 - 49ers (Road) - Loss, 8-4 14 - Steelers - (Home) - Win, 9-4 15 - Broncos (Road) - Win, 10-4 16 - Patriots (Road) - Win, 11-4 17 - Dolphins (Home) - Win, 12-4

I honestly don't think Lorenzo Alexander will be missed a lot. His base position of SLB (Strongside Linbebacker) will be manned by A.J. Klein, who was brought in during free agency. Klein isn't a spectacular player, but he's a pretty solid veteran and has started the last 3 seasons for the Saints. In my opinion, the loss here will be marginal. Most of the time, the Bills defense will actually be in nickel. This means two linebackers (Milano, Edmunds) and either Taron Johnson or Siran Neal covering the slot receiver. Over the last few years, Alexander has often slid onto the defensive line when the Bills go into Nickel. With the additions of Quinton Jefferson and A.J. Epenesa, I don't believe Alexander will be missed much in the pass rushing rotation either.

I would suggest watching the Cover 1 film session on him. Pass rushing isn't just about speed. Edge rushers can also win with leverage, great hand usage, and recognition. And while AJ Epenesa isn't the fastest athlete, he is absolutely exceptional with everything else. Based on tape alone, most had Epenesa slated as a Top 15 draft pick. If he had killed the Combine drills, he would have almost certainly jumped into the Top 10. Despite him not posting great numbers, most still saw him as a 1st Round prospect. We got a steal and he should still outperform most of the other guys picked last weekend.

People that don't like Josh Allen usually like to knock his accuracy (citing completion percentage), and his supposed "reckless" play (citing turnovers). At the same time, Dalton is usually considered a super-accurate passer and game-manager who avoids mistakes. Allen's completion percentage in 2019 was 58.8%. Dalton's last three seasons were 59.5%, 61.9% and 59.9%. His career average is only 62%. Allen threw 9 interceptions last season, and 12 interceptions as a rookie. Dalton threw 14 interceptions in less games last year, preceded by 11 and 12 the years before. His career average is 13 picks per season. So all homerism aside, let's be real here... Dalton has been around a full decade in the NFL, and clearly peaked about 5 seasons ago. Allen was a super-raw project, who is only entering his third season in the league and still has tons of potential to improve. Yet their numbers over the last 2-3 seasons have been remarkably comparable. That's without starting to consider Allen's running ability (especially in the Red Zone).

Agree with this statement completely. Josh Allen's running ability is deadly in the Red Zone and on 3rd Down. That is something you never want to take away, because that is his greatest advantage over other Quarterbacks in the NFL. Using him like a Running Back at other points of the game, I'm definitely not a huge fan of. You want to keep your QB from getting injured.

Injuries are a real thing. AJ Green missed a big chunk of 2016, half of 2018 and all of 2019. He's had problems with his hamstring, his toe, his ankle - all of which are extremely important to a WR. In his prime, Green was among the best WRs in the league. Today, he's basically a long-shot to ever get meaningful snaps on a football field again. John Brown isn't much younger, but he's healthy. Which makes all the difference in the world.

If he was targeting an O-Lineman, that rules out Round 2. We picked at 54 and the last OL player to go before us was Robert Hunt at 39. Beane stated they were targeting Zack Moss the entire time in Round 3, and actually tried to move-up for him. Also ruled out. Now Beane says he was discussing the trade with an NFC General Manager. He also states the pick was about 3-4 spots above ours. In Round 4, we picked at 128. OT Charlie Heck went only two picks before us. So if we were targeting him, that would mean we were discussing a trade up one spot with Philly. This doesn't fit. However, Detroit took OG Logan Stenberg 7 picks before us. And Chicago owned pick 125 (eventually traded to the Jets). This is a fit. In Round 5, there are several fits. We picked at 167. There are several NFC teams between us and when OC Nick Harris was picked at 160. It's also worth noting that Beane "wasn't planning" on targeting a QB this weekend, and picked Jake Fromm simply because of value on the board. This also suggests he was targeting something else, but it fell through. There are also fits in Round 6. We picked at 188. There were a handful of OL players picked in the early 180s (Hakeem Adeniji, Netane Muti and Michael Onwenu). There are also a group of NFC GMs in-between, including our counterpart the Panthers at 184. We ended up taking a kicker at that pick. Later in the round, OT Blake Brandel went a few picks before us. With the Vikings sitting in-between. Round 7 has Dustin Woodard going nine spots before us, with a handful of NFC teams in-between. So by process of elimination, I believe the player Beane was targeting is among this list: OG Logan Stenberg OC Nick Harris OT Hakeem Adeniji OG Netane Muti OG Michael Onwenu OT Blake Brandel OC Dustin Woodard

I'm really starting to question the "long-game" with this whole COVID-19 thing. Scientifically, there are only two ways to get something like this under control. The option that everybody would LIKE to see is a vaccine, which would obviously cause the least amount of sickness and death. Unfortunately, all medical experts say a vaccine isn't coming until 2021 at the very earliest. And there is no guarantee a vaccine will EVER be developed for this particular coronavirus. It's not something that people want to hear. But sadly it's the truth. So unless we are going to stop the world indefinitely (and possibly permanently), that leaves one option. The same way mankind has dealt with viruses, diseases and epidemics for the entire time they have been on this planet. And that is by Herd Immunity. Meaning that lots of people get sick. Some die. The majority recover and develop antibodies to keep the sickness from spreading. Life goes back to normal. There isn't ONE legitimate scientist that believes we can quarantine or social distance this thing into going away. The purpose of the lockdowns were always to SLOW the spread, so that we didn't overwhelm the hospitals and medical system. By having people avoid getting the virus, we are simply delaying the inevitable. Whether we open things back up in May, June, July, August, September or sometime in 2021, the virus will still be around and there will be a spike of new cases. It won't be until a significant portion of the population gets this and recovers, that things will truly be under control. Honestly, the smartest thing we can do is release the people who are young, healthy and face the lowest risk of death from COVID-19. Let them go back to work and be exposed to this thing. Keep the older population and those with pre-existing conditions in isolation, wearing masks and away from those who are out in the world. There will be a second wave, and there will be some people who die. But within 2-3 months, immunity will spread and this thing will be under control.

I honestly don't know why ANYONE is scared of this team. If anybody else was going into camp with Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham at the top of their QB depth chart, they would be a laughing stock. Not to mention, they have done absolutely nothing to upgrade their offensive skill positions (which were pretty bad last season). Because it's Bill Belichick, everyone assumes he just knows something everyone else doesn't.

Pretty much every NFL team puts draft prospects into tiers. Not a strict ranking of #1-300. The idea of BPA is that you never drop-down a tier, JUST so you can address a need. It's NOT that you always take your 105th ranked player over your 106th ranked player. Early in the draft, most GMs are going to have very strict separations in those tiers. For instance, Chase Young may be in a tier all of his own. A team going BPA would say, "Edge Rusher isn't my biggest need, but I'm drafting Young anyway because he's clearly the best player available." A team that doesn't go BPA may decide to take Jeff Okudah instead, because he really needs a cornerback. Or one of the top O-Line prospects, because the team struggled with blocking last year. Obviously as the draft goes on, teams won't have prospects ranked so strictly. By the 5th-6th-7th Round, you aren't talking about generational talents. You are talking about special teams players, practice squad developmental guys, and roster long-shots. Instead of 2-3 guys in a tier, a GM may have 10-20 guys ranked similarly. Which allows for more flexibility in filling specific roster spots. Beane is usually a BPA guy. But this weekend, he admitted that by the end of Day 3, he wasn't taking guys at the top of his board. He was taking positions that actually had a chance to make our roster.

Which is obviously the only reason he slipped into the 2nd Round. Before the Combine, most places had him ranked as the #2 defensive end behind Chase Young. In January/early February, it was rare to find a mock with him lasting past the Top 15. His supposed lack of speed/athleticism was accounted for in the latest rankings. He was still a Top 30 player and late first-rounder on most of the sites that I saw. At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how good he turns out. We won't know that for 2-4 years. To grade a draft today, we can only look at: a) The projections being done by so-called experts b) Whether a GM was able to get maximum value out of that pick, rather than reach early for a player c) How well the team addressed roster needs Based on these three standards, Brandon Beane was able to get a 1st Round prospect about 25-30 spots later than he was expected to go. It also addressed one of the team's biggest future question-marks, since both current starters are over 30 years old.

The Bills drafted two guys last year (Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney), and really like both. They also signed Tyler Kroft, and watched him battle injuries the entire season. They obviously like him as well. This was also a very crappy year for Tight Ends in the draft. Cole Kmet was the highest ranked, and I think the Bears took him a round too early.

Wow. I haven't been on the message boards much this weekend, and was absolutely shocked that some Bills fans are upset with this pick. Defensive End was among our Top 2-3 biggest areas for improvement (I wouldn't really say we had huge needs anywhere). And based on the rankings by most experts, this was a massive steal. For some perspective, here are where some of the main sports sites ranked AJ Epenesa before the draft: NFL.Com: #45th Overall ESPN: #23rd Overall Fox Sports: #31st Overall CBS Sports: #34th Overall NBC Sports: #28th Overall Pro Football Focus: #20th Overall The Draft Network: #27th Overall Sports Illustrated: #24th Overall Sporting News: #20th Overall Draftek: #23rd Overall Averaging these 10 sites, Epenesa was around the 27th-28th ranked prospect in the entire draft. We got him at #54.

Always a bunch of teams that reach, or have players valued differently. There will be some really good players available to the Bills.

Right now, the Bills defense would probably look like this, depending on the package: - AJ Klein starting at SLB in base 4-3 looks - Taron Johnson starting at NCB in pure nickel defense against 3 wide receivers - Siran Neal starting at NCB in the big nickel From what I understand (from those who studied Carolina's old defensive packages), Sean McDermott actually prefers to go with the Big Nickel formation more often. We just haven't had an exact fit in his first 3 years here. The recent interest in Kyle Dugger and Jeremy Chinn is causing several to connect the dots.

Is it a HUGE NEED. Absolutely not. But in all honesty, we don't have ANY really big needs this year. Any position we draft is going to be playing a limited number of snaps as a rookie. Lots of people want a Running Back. Whoever we draft is going to splitting carries with Devin Singletary. Lots of people want a Wide Receiver. A draftee would be #4 at best behind Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley. Lots of people want a Defensive End. A rookie would rotate behind Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Quinton Jefferson. Lots of people want a Cornerback. We already have a competition of Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and EJ Gaines opposite Tre White. Our current Big Nickel is usually Siran Neal, who is better suited as a pure backup Safety. Upgrading Neal would give us more ability to cover TEs, while not sacrificing run support. It's another chess piece for our coaching staff.

Do you ever notice how teams like Baltimore sit there in the 20s every draft, and watch highly rated players (this year it was linebacker Patrick Queen) just fall into their laps? The reason why? Because they usually go into the draft without any glaring needs. I've been waiting SO LONG for the Bills to reach this point. Where they aren't forced to target a WR or a CB or an OT, and they can just let the talent drop to them. There are places on the roster that could use better depth, but nothing glaring that we need to freak-out if they go somewhere else.

First Round completed. Lots of picks before the Bills go. Some interesting names still on the board, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade up into the 40s. The Top 3 running backs (Swift, Taylor, Dobbins) are all still available. Three potential 1st Round edge rushers (Epenesa, Gross-Matos, Baun) are still there There were big runs on WR, CB and OT. But there are still some solid names left, who were considered late 1st/early 2nd talents. Higgins, Shenault, Mims, Pittman at WR, Jones at OT, Diggs, Fulton and Johnson at CB. Another popular choice is Safety, and somehow none have been picked yet. McKinney was considered a Top 20 pick. Delpit was not far behind. If the Bills go here, I think they are looking at a specific kind of fit for the defense however.

Your list is good, although I don't know if Matt Milano will command $10 million per. The good news is, we can stagger these contracts. We won't need to pay everyone big money at the same time. Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano become free agents next year Tre White becomes a free agent in 2022 Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds in 2023 Ed Oliver not until 2024 Starting next season, I think the Bills strategy will shift towards building almost entirely through the draft and then re-signing their own. Veteran additions will be reasonable, and not big money. By the time Oliver is needing a new contract, guys like Mitch Morse and Stefon Diggs will be in their early 30's and should require less investment to keep on the roster.

The 2014 WR Class was the best I could remember, up until this point. Everybody knew that class was going to be fantastic, and for the most part (unless you traded up to #4 to take Sammy Watkins...) it didn't disappoint. Personally, I think this class is stronger at the very top. The 2014 class was a little bit better in the back-half of the 1st/early 2nd. They look to be about the same in the late 2nd Round and early 3rd. This class has more potential on Day 3. If those two classes were merged and re-drafted (based purely on their draft ranking out of college), I think the 1st Round prospects would go something like this: CeeDee Lamb Jerry Jeudy Sammy Watkins Henry Ruggs Mike Evans Odell Beckham Brandin Cooks Kelvin Benjamin Tee Higgins I don't think the Bills consider any trade-ups until a player they covet is withing striking distance (meaning 10 or less picks), and they are scared he will not fall. I'm fully expecting them to move around on Friday and Saturday, but they won't be making huge jumps.

This WR class is ridiculously deep. And any scout saying different is blowing smoke. There are two elite prospects who would go Top 5-10 in almost any class: Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb. Then you have one borderline elite guy, who is sure-shot First Round in Henry Ruggs. After that, you have about 10-12 guys who would deserve 1st Round consideration in almost any year. Many of these guys are getting extra scrutiny and will be pushed down, simply because there are a multitude of other options for WR-needy teams: Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman, Denzel Mims, Bryan Edwards, Chase Claypool. And then you have dozens of potential sleeper guys, who could slip to Day 3 and be impact starters in the NFL. Van Jefferson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tyler Johnson, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Gabriel Davis, etc. I've been following the draft for 30+ years, and I've never seen a class with this much potential.

Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers, Jaguars, Raiders All these teams pick at least once (a couple pick twice) before the Patriots are on board. Anything is possible, but the Patriots would probably need to package multiple 1st Rounders from future years to get high enough.

The Running Back we select needs to compliment Devin Singletary. Which means he should be good in areas that Singletary isn't. Where Singletary is shifty, the new guy should be strong, powerful and good running between the tackles. He must be great at ball security. Someone we can use in goal line situations, and grinding out the clock in the 4th Quarter. At the same time, I don't want someone that is one-dimensional and cannot catch the ball. The defense should not be able to key on run vs. pass based on who is in the game.