mjt328

Of course I don't know what the Bills draft board looks like. But I think we should be able to get BPA at a position of need, without trading up. In general, I agree with your overall list. Three quarterbacks (Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert), two receivers (Jeudy, Lamb), one pass rusher (Young), one linebacker (Simmons) and one cornerback (Okudah) are absolutely certain to be gone. In addition to Brown at defensive tackle, I would add that Javon Kinlaw will definitely go in the Top 15. That's a total of ten players we won't have any chance at drafting. So if we are looking for a WR, OT, DE or CB, that leaves us the following: Ruggs, Shenault, Higgins, Wills, Thomas, Wirfs, Becton, Epenesa, Chaisson, Gross-Matos, Henderson and Fulton. That's a total of 12 players. We draft at #22. So at worst, only ONE of these guys is available. And if someone like Love, Swift, McKinney, Delpit or another surprise works his way into the top 21 picks (happens every year), the Bills may have their choice from a couple of these guys. Again, it really depends on what the Bills board looks like. Maybe they don't like some of the guys on my list, and maybe they value some guys higher. Maybe our needs change drastically after free agency. But as for now, I don't see trading up as necessary.

In my opinion, this was not a great decision by Tee Higgins. A guy like Chase Young can skip the Combine, because nothing he can do during the workout will increase his draft stock. The general consensus is that he's the #1 non-quarterback in the class already. Why take the risk of injury, or having a bad workout? For comparison, just look at Auburn's Derrick Brown. He was considered one of the elite Top 5 talents in this draft. But after a poor showing this weekend, people are suddenly starting to question his work ethic. Don't be surprised if the Combine drops him 5-6 draft slots. Higgins is not in the same boat. Entering this weekend, there were about 5-6 wide receivers who would be considered borderline 1st/2nd Rounders. He was in that same boat, and needed to do something positive to set himself apart. With all the competition at that position, it's very possible that Higgins drops to a Day 2 pick.

Wise teams do not make trades like this. If scouted properly, a 1st Round Pick should have an extremely high success rate. A good GM should be able to get a good starter in the 1st Round most of the time, and should get a good starter in the 2nd Round at least half of the time. No WR is worth 3-4 good starters. Believe me. I really like CeeDee Lamb, and I think he's the best WR in this draft. But there are probably 20 WRs (maybe more) in this class who could also become very good receivers in the NFL. It's ridiculously deep. If the Bills do their homework, I have no doubts they can get what they need at #22 or even in the 2nd-3rd Round.

If you looked at Joe Burrow after the 2018 season, you would have seen a Quarterback who was maybe a late-round pick (if he was on anyone's radar at all). Through 4 years of college up until that point (at two great programs in Ohio State and LSU), he would have accomplished NOTHING that would lead ANYONE to believe he could be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Then something amazing happened. Everything clicked and he suddenly had one of the best seasons in NCAA history. In the span of 4-5 months time, Burrow went from a total nobody to the hands-down #1 pick in the NFL draft. Burrow went to a large high school in the Ohio, allowing him to be recruited by Ohio State. Which is obviously one of the top programs in the country. Between his time there and with LSU, he's been surrounded by some of the top young players and coaches in the NCAA. In contrast, Allen went to a tiny high school, and then played for Wyoming, surrounded by nobody who had a prayer of being an NFL starter. His first REAL coaching came as a rookie on the Bills, playing alongside some of the worst offensive talent in the NFL. Imagine if Brian Daboll/Jordan Palmer had gotten the chance to work with Allen in college, and the passing skills he displayed during 2019 were evident at Wyoming. He would have been the #1 pick over Baker Mayfield. Absolutely no doubt. So why does it really matter if Allen is showing progression NOW, versus him showing progression while still playing in college? It really doesn't. And consider that Allen and Burrow are both 23 years old. This is a drastic example. But my point is... every football player has a point when they are NOT good, and then a point when they get better. For some this happens when they are very young. Others (like Burrow) don't blossom until they hit their senior year of college. And while they are certainly a rarity, some players don't truly hit their stride until the pros. Continuing to look back where Allen started is totally pointless. The only thing that matters is where he finishes, and we shouldn't start worrying until he STOPS getting better.

There is a large middle-ground between Cam Newton/Lamar Jackson running between the tackles like a halfback -- and a high-efficiency, pure pocket-passer like Tom Brady or Drew Brees. I agree that Josh Allen probably won't succeed if he goes completely immobile, and counts on doing everything standing stationary between the tackles. That would be playing against his strengths and wasting his physical talent. Allen will need to find the proper balance, where he's not always counting on his legs to do the most damage... but also has that skill ready if the defense slips up and leaves a lane open to scramble. There are lots of guys in this boat, most notably Russell Wilson. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben don't scramble a lot, but effectively use their mobility to extend plays. These are the players Allen needs to model his game after.

I don't believe the Bills want Josh Allen to become Cam Newton, because that playing style has literally destroyed his body. While other QBs are still going strong after 15 years in the NFL, Newton looks done after about 7-8. That's the longevity of a running back. I believe their ultimate vision is to mirror players like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. Guys who can use their mobility to extend plays, but not as a primary weapon. Consider how the Bills coaches have approached Allen's development... compared to how the Ravens have worked with Lamar Jackson. As a rookie, Allen relied mostly on his athletic ability and running ability to make plays. But in Year 2, the coaches pulled back on the scrambling. They surrounded Allen with more receivers and pushed for him to stay in the pocket more. Meanwhile, Baltimore structured their entire offense around Jackson's running skills. In my opinion, Baltimore's approach is yielding more immediate success. But long-term, Buffalo's plan will result in Allen being a better QB and for a much longer time.

This is how I feel. At this point, the coaches have had an entire year to work with Cody Ford, every practice, in person. It's one thing to be going mostly off college film and the Combine, and being a little unsure when picking a guy in the draft. But at this point, the Bills SHOULD have a good feeling whether he can truly develop into a solid tackle, or if he would be better kicking inside. Now don't mistake me. I have no problem giving him more time to develop, if the coaches truly think he belongs at RT. But going into Year 2, I hope we've moved past the "experimental phase" and have settled into just helping him become better at his ultimate position.

Define "quality" receivers. I don't think the Bills will get Amari Cooper in free agency. They might be interested in AJ Green, who hasn't played in forever. Outside of those guys, you have mostly fringe starters who would be competing for snaps. Not looking at the #1 starting spot. They also may use their #1 pick on a WR. But I could just as easily see them waiting until the 2nd-3rd, considering how deep this draft is at the position. Bottom line. I think they add 3 WRs at some point during the offseason, but not all of them are going to be competing for immediate snaps or considered significant upgrades.

I would be curious where you are seeing this. I'm not seeing him listed anywhere as a 2nd Round Prospect. When I do draft evaluations, I generally start by looking at the "Top 100 Big Boards" on the major sites. That includes ESPN, NFL.Com, CBS Sports, PFF, Draft Network and Draftek. Out of those sites, Kyle Dugger was only listed on the Top 100 on two of those sites. In both cases, he's considered a 3rd Round Prospect. He was #69 on Draftek and #86 on the Draft Network. The rest had him completely outside the Top 100, which is 4th Round or later. So if the Bills really like him, they better do some maneuvering around the board, and try to get him in the late 2nd (at the absolute earliest). Using our 1st on a mid-round prospect from a small school, at a non-need position with limited impact, would be a disaster.

Can't really blame the current front office. Getting compensatory picks requires two things: 1. Having your own free agents sign high dollar contracts with other teams 2. Not really being active in free agency Last year, our crop of free agents were mostly from the Doug Whaley era. So you can't blame Brandon Beane if none of them were good enough to sign big contracts. Even if we weren't active in free agency, it's unlikely we would have gotten comp picks back anyway. It will probably take a few years to completely turn this train around. But I believe we will eventually get to a place where comp picks are common.

I just don't see it. Outside of special situational packages, Sean McDermott's defense generally utilizes a 1-Tech and 3-Tech at DT. Chris Jones is a 3-Tech. The same as Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. Our 1-Tech DTs would be Star Lotulelei and Harrison Phillips. In other words... If the Bills let Jordan Phillips walk, they will be looking for a replacement to rotate at the 3-Tech DT position with Oliver. Not to play alongside him. Jones will likely command $15-20 million per year. I just can't see the Bills spending that kind of money to split reps with the guy they picked Top 10 last year. Way too much investment at a single position. I think the Bills will offer Jordan Phillips a fair contract ($5-7 million per year) to return and split reps with Oliver. If he balks, they will find another starting-caliber guy on the market to take his place. Going forward, they likely envision Oliver being the main guy at the 3-Tech anyway. If Brandon Beane decides to shell-out a big contract on the Defensive Line, I believe it will be for an edge rusher. Shaq Lawson is a free agent. Jerry Hughes is possibly in the last year of his deal. Trent Murphy has been a disappointment and could easily be cut.

My definition of "Franchise QB" is a guy who can put lesser talent on his back, and pretty much carry the team by himself. The nightmare situation for every GM is having a guy who wants a long-term/$30-35 million per year contract, but isn't clearly at the "Franchise" level. Cousins is the very definition of borderline. Prescott is just a notch below him, but may still have room for improvement. I also wouldn't want to be making the call on Ryan Tannehill (fluke season?) or Jameis Winston (can be elite if he cuts down turnovers).

It's all about the market. Supply and demand. Your value isn't related solely to how you rank against your peers, but what teams are willing to pay you. Everyone knows you can't win without a QB. And think about how many teams are unsettled at the QB position going into the offseason. By my count, about 13 teams (just over 40 percent of the teams in the league) can't be 100% sure who will be under center next season. If Dallas is unwilling to pay Prescott, I could definitely see Miami, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles (Chargers), Chicago, Carolina or Tampa Bay being willing to do it. Depending on how negotiations work out with their free agents, New England and Tennessee could jump into that market. New Orleans could be in the market if Drew Brees retires. Pittsburgh must be contemplating life without Big Ben. Jacksonville would probably be interested if they didn't already have that terrible Nick Foles contract on the books. And it's not totally unfathomable that Cincinnati could throw money at Prescott, and then mortgage the #1 Pick (especially if Joe Burrow is balking at playing for them).

When it comes to Josh Allen, it seems very hard for people to be objective. He was a very polarizing prospect, that caused many fans and media heads to stubbornly dig their feet into the ground. And two years into his career, he's shown just enough promise for his supporters to proudly thump their chest. But he's also struggled enough for his doubters to remain skeptical. Truthfully, the jury is still out. There is no doubt he took some strides forward in 2019. But he needs to keep it going. Like I've said in the past... I don't think fans should put a time-limit on Allen's development. People keep asking whether QB development should take 2, 3, 4 seasons. Or if Allen isn't a Pro-Bowler by next year, would that classify him as a bust? In my opinion, development varies from player to player. Allen started "behind" most of the other prospects in his class, including a few that were drafted afterwards. He wasn't picked Top 10 because of his college production. His value was always related to long-term potential. The moment that Bills fans should start worrying is when Allen stops getting better. Period.

I just can't see the Bills using the franchise tag on Jordan Phillips. Although I would love to bring him back, I believe his market value is in the $6-7 million per year range. Free Agency is crazy, and it's possible that a team throws out $8-9 million. But I would be very surprised to see him getting a double-digit offer. With that in consideration, it makes zero sense for Brandon Beane to give him $15-16 to lock him up for just one year.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills are able to bring back both Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson at very reasonable deals. I don't think the market is quite as high on those two guys as most Bills fans believe. I've looked through numerous NFL sites regarding free agents, and neither Phillips or Lawson is on anyone's radar. I haven't found one writer (and many of these guys are pretty plugged in with league front offices) that has either of these guys in the Top 100 upcoming free agents, or one of the top targets at his position. Now, it's completely possible that real NFL GMs see those guys differently from the average observer. But from what I can tell, the top DE's that are being talked about include Jadeveon Clowney, Yannick Ngakou, Arik Armstead, Matthew Judon, Bud Dupree, Dante Fowler, Shaq Barrett. The top DTs seem to be Chris Jones, Leonard Williams, DJ Reader, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers, etc. Bottom line, I don't think these guys are going to land Top 10-15 contracts or their positions or anywhere close to $10 million plus. My guess is both Phillips and Lawson will be in the $6-8 million per year range. If they leave Buffalo, it will be likely due to factors beyond Brandon Beane's control. My biggest concern with both guys is pride. I think both guys may be overrating their own value, and may get offended if Buffalo doesn't offer them their perceived value. We may have already burned the bridge with Lawson by not activating his 5th Year Option. Phillips meanwhile is always on social media defending his play, and legitimately appears to see himself as one of the league's top players. Beane will probably give both guys fair offers, but won't overpay or break the bank.

I've thought the same thing when watching Patrick Mahomes, and wondered if it could work for our offense. His distance from the line of scrimmage often gives him 10-15 yards of space before the pass rush can get close to him, and gives the receivers more time to get deep. Josh Allen is one of the few players (besides Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, etc.) with enough arm strength to make this work. To the person that said our O-Line can't hold on a 7-step drop.... watch how Kansas City executes these plays. Mahomes doesn't do this from under center. He takes very deep shotgun snaps, then continues moving backwards or laterally as the play happens, instead of stepping up into the pocket. The O-Line isn't forced to hold blocks longer than on normal pass plays.

Excellent post. There is not a huge separation between teams at the NFL level. Combine that with the nature of the sport (any given Sunday...), and it's really not a far-fetched idea for anyone to beat anyone. In general, the 2019 Buffalo Bills were good enough to "hang" with the elite teams, play 50-50 against the other playoff-caliber teams, and consistently defeat pretty much everyone below that level. So no. It's not unreasonable to see them pulling out a win against a team like the Chiefs or the 49ers. But it was always very unlikely they could win 3-4 straight games against teams of that caliber -which is what it would have taken to win it all. Building a Super-Bowl winner doesn't require building the BEST team in the league, or following some magic formula. It's about building a team that can CONSISTENTLY compete and win games against the other elite teams in the league. If a GM can keep his team at that level for several years, odds are they should win some playoff games. Win some consecutive playoff games and that puts them in position to take the trophy. Bottom line, the Bills had a championship-caliber defense in 2019. It certainly wasn't perfect, and there were times they struggled with tackling, run defense and applying pressure on the QB. But that side of the ball was capable of CONSISTENTLY shutting down the league's best offenses. On the other hand, the offense struggled weekly to put up 25 points, regardless of who they played. The path to the Super Bowl would have probably included the Chiefs, Titans and 49ers. No way we survive that stretch with a below-average offense. The good news is, the Bills are close. And like I said, it isn't about fielding the best team in the NFL in 2020. It's about bumping ourselves into that "elite tier" of teams, with the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Saints, Packers, etc. Scoring another 4-5 points each game would put us there. And our front office is building us for the long-haul, not sacrificing the future for 1-2 years as a contender (see Rams).

The Saints should have gone to the Super Bowl in 2018, if not for the terrible no-PI call. This year they ended 13-3, despite their starting QB missing a quarter of the season. New Orleans is still very much a contender.

Every year (just prior to free agency), this topic pops up. It doesn't matter how successful the Bills are in attracting free agents (and by all accounts, we did a fantastic job last season), there are still self-conscious Bills fans who are totally convinced we are a totally undesirable location for NFL players. It's just not true. Yes, Buffalo is cold. Yes, Buffalo doesn't have as much to do as bigger cities. But some people really don't mind the cold. And there are lots of people who don't WANT to live in a crowded metropolitan area. There are multitudes of factors that go into where free agents decide to play. And I would imagine that weather is pretty low on most people's lists. Money is most definitely near the top. As would playing with a contender/winning organization. Comfort with a particular coach, coaching staff, scheme or other players is probably very high as well. Some players with families/children are going to factor in schools, just like regular people. An article came out just this week on Richard Sherman, who was courted highly by the Detroit Lions. But he DID NOT want to play for Matt Patricia, because he didn't feel his personality fit the "Patriot-Way" that was being installed. Go back to the early days of free agency (right after our Super Bowl years), and we had no problem attracting the biggest names on the market. Bryce Paup, Chris Spielman and Ted Washington were eager to come and play for us, because we had a winning reputation. Mario Williams was sold on his love for the hunting grounds. Takeo Spikes was impressed by the fans. Last year, numerous guys talked about wanting to play with Josh Allen or falling in love with our state-of-the-art workout facility. Bottom line. If a player doesn't want to come to Buffalo because of the snow, or because it doesn't have a hot club scene... then they probably won't fit this team anyway.

The Pro-Bowl is a popularity contest. Who cares? Eli Manning was consistently a Top 10 during the peak of his career. I'll concede that. But I would never put him in the same category as the elite guys of his era (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees). In my opinion, he's a few notches below the next tier of guys (Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner) that are borderline Hall of Fame quality. I would even put him below other guys I also wouldn't put in the Hall of Fame (Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers). At best, he's in the same discussion as Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, Matthew Stafford, etc. Never argued that a guy needed to be all-time elite to be in the Hall of Fame. But I think he needed to be elite during the time he played. I would certainly place Kelly, Elway and Warner in that category. I think Aikman was overrated, and I'm too young to have watched Bradshaw play. Playing at a "high level for many years" is not good enough. Those guys are worthy of having their team retire a jersey. The HOF should be reserved for the All-Pros of the All-Pros.

There are no "requirements" for Hall of Fame entry. My standard is the player being the BEST OF THE BEST during the majority of his playing career. Eli Manning was a good quarterback. But not in that category. Based on what? Touchdowns? Passing yards? Passer rating? Like I said in my original post... I don't care what a guy's final stats compile to be, especially when he played 16 full years during the most pass-happy era in the history of the NFL. If you go by a season-by-season basis (comparing him against his counterparts in the same playing era), he was extremely average. Just looking at yardage, Matt Ryan is already Top 10 and may be Top 5 before his career is over. He is not Hall of Fame worthy. Matthew Stafford is already Top 20 and could be in the Top 10 when he retires. Not Hall of Fame worthy. Guys like Carson Palmer and Vinny Testaverde are in the Top 15 currently. Team accomplishment. Again. These guys played in a totally different era, with completely different rules. If you go back into the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was absolutely no doubt who the BEST OF THE BEST quarterbacks were. Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway and Joe Montana. To a lesser extent, you can also argue Warren Moon. Their accomplishments were not just about rings, not just about stats, but about domination at the position for their era. You aren't getting an argument for me about Troy Aikman. He shouldn't have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and was borderline to make it at all. He was overrated because of Super Bowl rings and the Cowboys team success. Teams feared Emmitt Smith and the Dallas O-Line. Not the quarterback. Phillip Rivers was better than Eli Manning, but I wouldn't put him into the Hall of Fame either. The current QBs that I would put into the Hall of Fame on first ballot are Tom Brady and Drew Brees. I think Ben Roethlisberger deserves to eventually make it (his overall game was way more dominating than either Rivers or Manning), along with Aaron Rodgers.

Absolutely not. He was a good/above average QB, who was propped-up (even from his college days) because of the Manning name. His only HOF-worthy accomplishment was winning two Super Bowls, which was a team accomplishment and not just because of him. If anyone has a reason he is worthy (besides the rings), then I would absolutely LOVE to hear it. In every way, he was middle of the pack. For every single one of his 16 years in the NFL. He never had a single wow season, and was never close to discussion as league MVP. His teams were never dominating in passing offense. Teams did not fear playing the Giants because of him. There wasn't a point during his career that anyone considered Eli Manning to be a Top 5 quarterback in the league. Supporters are going to make an argument for Manning, simply because he played 16 years in the NFL (almost never missing a game) and when everything is totaled-up, his stats will compare favorably to other Hall of Fame Quarterbacks from the 70's and 80's. But despite playing in a pass-heavy league his entire career, his AVERAGE stats were as follows: 60.3% completion percentage (average) 7.02 yards per attempt (average) 241.6 yards per game (average) 1.55 touchdowns per game (average) 1.50 touchdown/interception ratio (below average) He's not a Hall of Fame player, and putting him in will dilute the accomplishment for everyone else.

Lots of crazy things could happen between now and April. Who would have thought Kyler Murray would have gone #1 to the Cardinals at this time last season? With Carolina bringing in Joe Brady as offensive coordinator, I'm curious if they might try to make a move for the #1 pick (they currently sit at #7). If you are the Panthers, the idea of reuniting Brady/Burrows is very tempting. And if you are the Bengals, would a massive load of picks be worth moving down 6 spots and maybe still getting Tua or Justin Herbert? It's not totally inconceivable. I'm friends with the brother of an NFL scout. And despite how great Burrows was this year, I can tell you that (at least some) teams are WAY more excited about Trevor Lawrence coming out next year. It's something to consider when looking at the "bad" teams who are in a position to draft a QB in 2020.

Stats can be misleading without context. At this point, I don't care what PFF or Football Outsiders says... or what random stat is brought up to criticize individual players in our defense. I've read recent articles that say Tre White is overrated, Jordan Phillips is a below average lineman, Matt Milano can't tackle, etc. Now we are knocking Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, who are two key pieces in one of the NFL's best pass defenses 3 years running. Bottom line -- this defense performed at a Super Bowl level in 2019. Outside of maybe the Philadelphia game, they put us in a position to win every single other game this year. That would be 16 of 17 total games on the year. If we could count on our offense to put up just 25 points, we would have beaten the Patriots both times, the Browns, the Ravens, the final Jets game, and the Wild Card Round. Like I said in another thread... I doubt anyone could come up with more than 2-3 defenses that played better in 2019 than the Bills. And that is being extremely generous. However, Micah Hyde was our BEST RANKED player for the year. And he wasn't even Top 10 at his position. How can PFF justify that?