mjt328

My only problem with PFF are their grades. I think it's great how they watch every player/every snap. And by watching the same teams/coaches/schemes over and over, you can usually get a pretty good idea what player assignments are on each play. I'm just not a fan of the arbitrary numbers they assign based on what they see. For example, how do you truly grade a Cornerback? Most CBs only face a handful of passes each game. So do you grade them on every single route? The way a CB defends a play during the route and when the ball is actually in the air can be very different. Some CBs may seem to have great coverage, but can't seem to make a play when the pass is actually thrown. That's not good. Some CBs may appear to be beat, but are actually baiting the Quarterback into a throw and have great closing ability. What do you do if there is perfect coverage and the receiver still makes the catch? What do you do if the CB leaves his man wide open and the pass is bad or dropped? What happens if he purposely allows a 6 yard catch on 3rd-10? Agree that both sides have strengths and weaknesses. I was hoping that by starting this discussion, we could maybe pool together some resources and get more intelligent discussion going on. Personally, I get tired of the "Player A Sucks", "Coach B Should be Fired" posts that occur after every loss (or lately after wins too).

I think you hit the nail on the head here. Stats certainly have their value, because they can often quantify what the film is showing. But they can also be misleading, especially when they are cherry-picked.

Over the last several years, I've noticed a growing divide between football fans. 1. Those who rely on box scores, stats and fantasy football to determine how a player is performing. 2. Those who look to All-22 reviews and film studies to judge player performance. You can see this dynamic playing out on this very message board. Post game, we all see the armchair GMs totally ripping into guys like Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei and Tremaine Edmunds for their "lack of production" and supposedly poor play. But then the game film reports start coming out around Tuesday morning, and we learn these same players are actually doing a pretty good job. As someone who is over 40 years old, I certainly understand the "old school" way of following the sport. But at the same time, I feel like the traditional stat-hounds are going by the wayside. Even sites like Pro Football Focus and their flawed scores are quickly becoming outdated. There are too many resources available to regular fans for anyone to just say - "Player A sucks" - without providing some real tangible evidence. I'm not looking to advertise for any particular websites, but I thought some of us could share our favorite sources for All-22 reviews. Personally, I very much enjoy Cover 1. They post quick little nuggets on Twitter, along with more extensive breakdowns on YouTube. I also think Joe Buscaglia does a great job, although I admittedly haven't followed his articles as much since he went to the Athletic.

Good list, and I agree with most of the points. On point #1: After a QB gets paid (following his 4th or 5th Year), a team cannot afford to surround him with tons of All-Pro talent and a Top 5 Defense. He needs to be capable of carrying the team to wins without help. On point #3: This is a really tough question for many GMs, because each Quarterback is totally different. While some players prove themselves to be "the guy" early in Year 2, there are some guys who don't hit that point until late in Year 4. A great example is Drew Brees, who struggled badly early in his career, watched his replacement (Phillip Rivers) get drafted, and then suddenly turned into a Hall of Famer. I think what teams need to watch for is the plateau. Each QB starts at a different place, and learns at a different pace. Which is OK. But there will be a point when a player simply stops progressing. At that point, if he hasn't reached #1, you must cut bait and start over. In terms of Josh Allen, I think most experts would agree he started Year 1 behind most of the other QBs in his class (Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen). But he seems to have progressed very quickly, caught up and even passed those guys early in Year 2. He's already made big strides in accuracy and mechanics, and has shown better decision-making over the last 3-4 weeks. He definitely hasn't reached #1 yet, but we also haven't seen any kind of stagnation is his development.

People see what they want to see. Last week, we got DESTROYED, WRECKED, OBLITERATED and TOTALLY BLOWN OUT by 18 POINTS (!!!!!!!!!!) against the Eagles. This week, we barely squeaked by the lowly Redskins by a measly 15 POINTS.

Red flags for what exactly? Nobody is expecting the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year, or even win the AFC East. Very few expect them to get past the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Before the season, people were hoping for them to compete for a Wild Card spot, and that's 100% exactly what they are doing. It's infuriating that some fans keep moving the goalpost on expectations. I watch tons of football games every Sunday. The vast majority of them are still close in the 4th Quarter. Blowouts are rare, and good teams very often need to comeback and beat inferior opponents. The fact that you consider virtually every team on their schedule a "joke" is telling in itself. If the Bills are now expected to totally DESTROY the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Giants, Redskins, Lions, Bears, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers and Cardinals -- that should be a sign that you think they've improved. Uh. Yes. Sorry if you thought turning around this franchise would happen overnight. No. It's important to you, and people who dwell on statistics. Nobody else gives a crap. Coaches don't need a 300 game from Josh Allen to judge his progress. They are calling the plays, and watching how he executes. Pretty much everyone who breaks down film has been praising Allen for standing in the pocket, going through his progressions, then delivering an accurate ball -- you know, all the things critics said he wouldn't be able to do. Unless they benefit from a big play or two, QBs are going to need to make at least 35-40 attempts per game to hit the 300 yard threshold. That isn't our team right now. Allen is averaging just over 30 attempts per game, and threw for 254/243 the only times he hit that range. It's pretty clear this team is focused on Defense and not turning the ball over. They started with a QB who was wild and inaccurate, and are gradually teaching him to be efficient and smart. Balance between aggression and conservative play will need to come with time.

I'm getting tired of hearing about the easy schedule. Even if the Bills manage to ONLY beat the bad/mediocre teams this year, it's still a significant step from where this team has been. Even if we are one/done in the Wild Card Round, it's still a big milestone for this growing franchise. There are only so many really good teams in the NFL. Everyone knows, the Bills played an absolutely brutal schedule last year. Yet when everything was added up, they still only faced 8 games against teams with more than 8 wins. That's the reality of the NFL. If you can take care of business against the teams you SHOULD beat, you are going to be in talks for the playoffs most of the time. The next level is consistently competing against and occasionally beating the really good teams. We aren't there yet. And that's OK. This is a franchise that completely blew up everything (front office, coaching staff, scouting department, roster, salary cap) less than 3 years ago. They hired a first-time General Manager and a first-time Head Coach, who were tasked with fixing one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL. They rebuilt the locker room, player by player, and then drafted one of the rawest first round Quarterback prospects I've ever seen. This was always going to be a methodical and grueling process, as opposed to a quick overnight fix. If you would have polled ANYONE before the season, they would have been thrilled with the kind of improvement this team has shown in the first 8 games. But at some point, the standards for a "successful" season changed. Suddenly it's not enough to win games on Sunday. We need to be blowing teams out by 3 touchdowns, or fans are miserable. It's pathetic and I feel really sorry for anyone with that kind of attitude.

First of all, very few people expected this team to win more than 10 games this season. We are currently on pace (depending on the Washington game) to win 10-12. Nothing is going wrong, other than a bad game against a really good opponent. Second, the Defense has been good/great for the majority of the season. Most would consider it a Top 3 unit in the NFL. It is not a problem or a liability, and we don't need a total overhaul on our Front 7. We have literally had ONE bad game (out of seven this season), and Bills fans are suddenly screaming that our pass rushers are ineffective, our tackles are terrible/undersized, our linebackers are out of position, and our scheme is not flexible enough. This is a total overreaction, and I believe they will make the necessary adjustments against their next opponents. Our biggest problem this year has been an offense that turns the ball over, and cannot score enough points. Strangely enough, the team ranks in the middle of the league in actual yardage and moving the ball. And they are among the best in Red Zone percentage. This tells me the problem isn't ability. It's consistency. Each game we have drives that go 30-40 yards, and then suddenly stall. Each game we have 1-2 really good scoring drives, but then struggle badly for 2-3 straight drives and can't get anything going. I don't think it's a coincidence that our young QB is also wildly inconsistent. Last year he was hitting lots of downfield passes, but struggling with accuracy/efficiency on the short stuff. This year he's improved drastically on the short/medium throws, but can't hit the deep ball. In the first few games, he was playing more aggressive and passing for more yardage. But he was making stupid mistakes and throwing too many picks. Which killed too many drives. Now he's being more careful with the ball. But that is leading to more sacks and less yardage. Which is killing too many drives. We are seeing EVERYTHING we need from Josh Allen. It's just happening in spurts. If he can find balance to his conservative/aggressive play, and start putting together full games, the Bills are going to start winning more convincingly.

Never said the players don't shoulder the blame. Our Run Defense was a huge reason for the loss, and it was acknowledged in the original post. If you let up a 65-yard touchdown run, somebody screwed up. If you get run over in the 4th Quarter and can't stop the opposing team, it's clearly a problem. My point was to show the Run Defense wasn't a continual problem for 4 Quarters. It was a single run in the 3rd Quarter, and then two drives in the 4th Quarter. Just because the Eagles took advantage of a scheme or an alignment, doesn't necessarily mean it's the fault of the coaching staff. Like I said, what the Bills were doing on Run Defense was working for the majority of the first 45 minutes. If Josh Allen doesn't fumble, the defense lets up 3 points in the first half. If Hyde takes a better angle to the ball, the big touchdown run never happens. At the time everything fell apart, they really had no reason to adjust on Run Defense. The biggest problem at that point was stopping Philly's screen game. Once the Eagles started ramming the ball down our throat, it was too late for them to really make changes. What they learn from this game will be important when we face Baltimore.

Not the same thing. And I never said the Run Defense had a good day. My point was to show the breakdowns were more isolated than most fans realize, which suggests it would be easier to correct.

But as I detailed in the original post, the sequence of plays you are referring to all occurred in the 4th Quarter - and almost entirely on a single drive. At that point of the game, it was too late for the coaching staff to make significant gameplan adjustments. The Bills were also down by 2 scores and couldn't really afford to use a timeout to get the defense together again. The defense had a really bad game. I'm not excusing that at all. And the Bills coaching staff absolutely needs to shore up the problems revealed during the 4th Quarter, or it will lead to additional struggles down the line. There has been a theme going on since Sunday, stating the Eagles spotted a clear weakness in the Bills run defense, continually exploited it throughout the game, and McDermott/Frazier were totally powerless to make the needed adjustments to stop it. My goal was to show this wasn't completely true. In reality, the Bills run defense was gashed on ONE play in the first 45 minutes of the game. The wheels totally came off in the 4th Quarter, and by that point, the coaches were in a tough position to make drastic changes. Agreed. I think the play was a mix of Milano failing to get off the block, and Hyde hesitating into the hole - then taking a bad angle. I mistakenly said Poyer in another thread, but it was clearly Hyde when I watched the play again. Screens were a completely different issue, and another thing that needs adjusting. As was our ability to stop the Quarterback scrambles. I started the thread to discuss the Run Defense by itself, since that was what had most people in an uproar.

Thought I would share some interesting stats/observations regarding our Run Defense, since so many people now believe the sky is falling. 1. In the first half, Eagles running backs had 31 yards on 11 carries (2.81 ypc). 2. Outside of the 65-yard-run, Eagles running backs had 6 yards on 4 carries in the third quarter (1.50 ypc). 3. Carson Wentz scrambling and a Nelson Agholor end-around accounted for 42 yards. Outside of the big run and some QB scrambles, the run defense played very well until the 4th Quarter. In total, we are talking 15 carries for 37 yards. And the main reason Miles Sanders broke off that big run, was because Micah Hyde was concerned about Wentz scrambling and hesitated flying at the ball carrier. I'm not saying this to excuse a poor performance by the Defense. Not at all. It was definitely a bad game, and one of the primary reasons we lost on Sunday (the offense cannot be excused either). I just want to put things into perspective, for those who believe the Defense was totally exposed or that Sean McDermott failed to make the necessary adjustments. This was the first truly BAD game we've seen from the Bills Defense since the middle of last year. Other teams have tried to run up the middle over the last 13-14 games, and haven't done close to what the Eagles accomplished on Sunday. And most of this damage was done over the course of two drives in the 4th Quarter. By that point, it was too late to make significant scheme changes. It's also possible the Defense was just gassed and worn-down, considering this was the same stretch where our offense couldn't do ANYTHING.

Please watch the 65-yard-run, and tell me how Lotulelei was "dominated" by the blocker. He is clearly angled to the A gap before the snap, and then shoots into and fills the A gap. Which is NOT where the run goes. If you are upset that he didn't knock the OG on his @$$ and blow into the backfield to make the play, your expectations are too high. Not being Aaron Donald does not make him a bad player.

I follow a number of Bills reporters who do All-22 reviews, and their opinion on Sunday's game echos Joe B and what the coaching staff said earlier. Star Lotulelei played well. Too many football fans (not just in Buffalo) see the big tackles as the "first line of defense" and jump on them anytime the team lets up a big run. This is a generic, uneducated and often misguided way of thinking. In many schemes - ours included - the DTs are mostly intended to occupy blockers and allow the Linebackers or Safeties to fly around the field and make the tackle. The Miles Sanders 65-yard-run was a perfect example. Lotulelei angled before the snap and then filled the A gap to the left of the center. He did his job, and helped leave an unblocked defender behind him to make the stop. This play ultimately came down to either Matt Milano shedding the block, or Micah Hyde reacting quickly to the play. Milano is totally blocked out of the play, and Hyde hesitates - allowing Sanders to make the cut and fly past them.

Every coach needs PLAYERS to make his scheme work. Like every other aspect of this roster, the Defense has been a work in progress since 2017. As new pieces have been added, the performance has gotten better and the bad games have decreased. McDermott's defense has ALWAYS needed linebackers playing at a high-level to make his system work. It wasn't until the second-half of 2018 that he was getting strong play from Tremaine Edmunds AND Matt Milano. Over the final 7 games of last year, and the first 6 games of this year - the defense has played very well. So yes. This has only been one bad performance. I'm curious what your definition of a "blowout" is. We lost by 18 points on Sunday, allowing 31 points overall. And I would consider Josh Allen's fumble (led to 8 points at the end of the half) a significant factor in the final outcome. Bad games happen. And most of the time, the can be summed-up in a handful of bad plays. Would it surprise you to know that Buffalo's Defense had allowed only 31 yards on 11 carries to Running Backs in the first half? The only big gains were from a WR end-around and a few QB scrambles. They also had allowed only 3 points, prior to the Allen fumble. The game changed on the Miles Sanders 64-yard run. And that play pretty-much boiled down to Jordan Poyer hesitating and taking a poor angle to the hole. Fair statement. But like I said above, the Bills Defense actually performed very well in the first half. There were really no reasons for adjustments. Outside of the big run by Sanders, things really didn't fall apart until the 4th Quarter. At that point, it's hard to make drastic changes.

Anyone who figured this team was only 1-2 players away from the Super Bowl was kidding themselves. Just like the people who have been overreacting to the Eagles game, and suddenly screaming we need to fire everyone and start over. The 2019 Buffalo Bills were always about winning around 10 games, getting into the playoffs and seeing solid progress from the QB position. We are very much on-pace to reach all of those goals. If we can get to 11 wins, gain a victory over New England or get to the Divisional Round - that would be a nice bonus. Brandon Beane/Sean McDermott are building this team to be a consistent year-to-year contender, who can eventually replace the Patriots at the top of the AFC. They have spent 2 years gutting the roster of overpriced contracts, re-establishing a strong culture in the locker room, getting key cornerstone pieces - all while stockpiling more cap space and draft picks. I don't think overpaying for an injured AJ Green or overrated Melvin Gordon fits into the puzzle. In the offseason, I said that our front office was building a team the right way - as opposed to the hyped-up Jets and Browns. Those teams made some nice draft picks, but then immediately went for broke trading for malcontents and dishing out stupid contracts. We are only halfway though the season, but the evidence is continuing to pile-up that this assessment was correct.

It's hilarious that Buffalo's defense has been considered Top 3 all season long. But then after one bad performance, Sean McDermott has a "bad" defensive scheme and the entire Front 7 needs to be replaced. The Eagles had the perfect gameplan against us, and then executed it perfectly. It doesn't mean this defense has been "exposed" as a fraud, or that we really aren't a good unit.

True. But it's not completely overwhelming with doom and gloom after a win.

This game can't come quick enough. The last two days have been totally unbearable on this message board. Prior to the Eagles game, our defense was considered one of the Top 2-3 in the entire NFL. Three hours later, and we apparently need to replace our entire Defensive Line and Tremaine Edmunds is back to being a bust/playing out of position. On offense, the lack of points is becoming a very disturbing trend that must get fixed immediately. But the overreaction on the other side of the ball is ridiculous.

Lack of continuity is a HUGE problem in this league, and one of the primary reasons the exact same teams win (or lose) every single year. This regime has finished tearing-down the structure setup by the previous group, and is just starting to put the pieces together of their rebuild. We drafted the cornerstones (Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds) just a year ago. This was the first Free Agent period where our front office actually had cap space to make moves. Depending on the result of the Washington game, we will be on pace for a 10-6 or 12-4 record. That would be a drastic improvement over the last 20 seasons, and evidence we are moving in the right direction. If I'm the Pegulas, this regime gets to the end of 2020 before I even CONSIDER making a change.

Here is my problem. How many opponents would actually be considered "quality" level? If we had beaten the Eagles yesterday, they would be 3-5 and probably a long-shot to even make the playoffs. Suddenly, nobody considers them a quality opponent. The Titans were generally considered a good team. But us defeating them is the difference between them being 4-4 and 5-3 (and tied with the Texans). Looking in the AFC, I think it's safe to say that New England and Kansas City are considered quality opponents, hands-down. Baltimore, Indianapolis and Houston look fairly imposing at the moment, because they have winning records. But all of them are inconsistent, and a couple bad games/injuries would make victories over those teams suddenly look much less impressive. The other 10 teams in the AFC are considered nobodies. Another example. Most would say, the Bills next TRUE TEST is on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. But what happens if Dallas drops their games against the Vikings and Patriots... and then we beat them too. The entire world looks at Dallas with a 6-6 record, and says the Bills weren't able to beat a quality opponent. The same could be said for the Ravens in Week 14, who currently sit at 5-2. They face the Patriots, Texans, Rams and 49ers before facing us. If they drop all of those, you have another 6-6 team marching into Buffalo.

This franchise has a history of letting top Cornerbacks walk in Free Agency. Time to break that trend. Stephon Gilmore is the most recent. Longtime fans also remember Nate Clements, Antoine Winfield, etc.

Just keep winning. Don't pay attention to the media.

This part stood out to me, because it's just a silly argument. The NFL absolutely DOES have 32 guys who can play the Quarterback position very well. In fact, every QB that has managed to make a professional roster is extremely good at the sport. But there are always going to be a handful who play BETTER than everyone else. And it's those top guys who are going to set the standard around the league. The worst starting QB in the NFL would be ridiculously good against 99 percent of football competition around the world. But since he's not on the level of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, etc. -- fans consider that player bad.

The upcoming draft is supposed to be EXTREMELY strong and deep with Wide Receivers. Just something to consider... The 2017 draft was loaded with defensive backs (both corners and safeties). The Bills took Tre White. The 2018 draft was considered a strong year for quarterbacks and linebackers. The Bills took Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds. The 2019 draft was top-heavy with defensive linemen. The Bills took Ed Oliver.