billsfan89

Thomas has a small chance to fall in a range where they can do a more moderate smaller trade up. I can see scenarios where Thomas is there around pick 24 and the Bills can package a swap of pick 60 for a third plus a 5th to make that type of trade up. But I just don’t see them being able to trade up to pick 12 or higher at a reasonable cost.

No problem I get caught up in threads haha. I think the Bills won’t be in a position to trade up for a top 3 WR without having to give up a lot to the point where I don’t think it would be worth it. I think there also little chance Brian Thomas lasts past the 20-22 range either. So I think the Bills at pick 28 are going to have to “let the draft come to them” so to speak and just see whose there at pick 28 and either trade down a bit if that’s available or take the 5th WR on the board (likely Franklin, McConkey or Legette). I think at pick 60 if a really good WR is there no issue taking them but if a top Guard/DT/DE is there those needs shouldn’t be ignored to double up at WR if the value is lackluster. I think if you take a WR in the 26-35 range I think you can wait to pick 128 to add some depth.

We can quibble about the targets but the targets available aren’t going to be more than a 5% increase and I think a lot of the Diggs 160 target volume is not going to be absorbed just by two rookies. Shakir is going to likely have 45 more targets and Kincaid 20 more targets. That’s already chipping away 65 targets from Diggs. I think the Bills will need impact from a rookie and that’s why it is imperative they draft one with their first pick. But I do doubt that the Bills fortunes are resting on a depth WR who’s at best only going to be a WR4 and get 40-50 targets if there are no major injuries and it’s probably closer to 30 targets more likely if health is not a factor. If the Bills can find a rookie to who can have a good impact and absorb 70-80 targets efficiently then I think the Bills will be in a good spot. I think they don’t have to draft a WR at pick 60 if there isn’t a good one there or the value is much greater at another position of need. They can find a WR at pick 128 or 133 to add depth and take on 30-40 targets.

Josh threw 579 times in 2023 with 545 being targets (I assume those other 30 passes were throw away or batted at the line). So round up to 550 targets likely needed I think the targets are going to look like this for the guys currently on the roster. These seem like reasonable estimates to me. Kincaid 110 Shakir 100 Samuel 70 Cook 50 Knox 50 Hollins 35 Ty Johnson 25 That’s about 440 targets so you are only “short” about 110 targets. You probably need a rookie to come in and take about 75 targets which would put the Bills at about 515 targets and the rest of the 35 targets are likely spread around to role players. So I don’t think you need two WR’s soaking in a lot of targets.

I don’t think they need two WR’s as starters or heavy volume players. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook are 5 players that are going to be getting good targets while Hollins and Ty Johnson will be getting complementary targets. They do need one WR to have solid volume I don’t think they need two rookies to soak in all of the Diggs targets. Samuel should take on Gabe’s targets while Shakir, Cook, Ty, Kincaid and Knox should have their targets increase in taking some of Diggs 160 targets. I think you are going to need a rookie to take on 80-90 targets while the other 70-80 targets are disbursed to the other players. I think a second rookie would probably be there for depth and supplemental production. A second rookie 4th/5th on the depth chart probably is going to have 30-40 targets.

This team did find Gabe Davis in round 4 and Shakir in round 5. I know Gabe wasn’t the WR2 that the team needed him to be in 2022. But Gabe was still a productive WR. I think that the McBeane track record on mid round selections is better than average. In rounds 4-5 from 2017 on the team has drafted 11 players the team has found Milano, Taron Johnson, Shakir, and Gabe Davis and a good role player in Neal with the jury still out on Shorter. That’s a 40% hit rate on finding starters and a 50% hit rate on finding productive players (taking out Shorter from the calculation). And while Teller wasn’t a hit for the Bills he was a good player the Bills traded too soon. So I think I actually value selections in the mid rounds as it seems like McBeane seems to find good players there.

I would hate giving up pick 200 for him. He just turned 24 and he’s been in a bad passing offense with lackluster QB’s and he’s only two years into his career. He’s been a bit banged up his first two seasons but not necessarily major injuries (turf toe and a LCL sprain from what I have read) so he’s not damaged goods either. Big guy with great measurables and productive in college. Maybe a change of scenery will help him. Could do worse for a WR 5/6.

The Bills in my opinion will be able to roster about 8-9 selections. They clearly need a WR or two and likely are going to draft two (one at either pick 28 or 60 and one in the mid rounds). I think on offense they also need a third string RB (probably can get that in round 6) with some ST upside. They also will probably have room for one offensive line depth/development player. They likely are also going to draft 2-3 DL players as they need at a minimum one DT and one DE to fill out that rotation. They also will need a safety and a corner for secondary depth and possibly two corners. I can’t see a pick other than a round 7 flyer at TE, QB, K/P, or LB. The Bills likely don’t see K/P as a need for some reason and the starters and depth at TE/QB/LB are solid.

Honestly would love a center in round 1! Solidifies the offensive line moving McGovern back to guard and replacing Mitch with a high quality prospect locked into a deal for 4-5 years. It then moves Edwards back to the 6th man position and gives the offensive line solid depth with Edwards as the backup to both guards and RT if needed, Collin’s is the backup RT and can flex into a guard spot if needed. Van Denmark is the swing tackle. That’s 3 solid bench options. I think the WR draft is deep enough where they can find a solid player at pick 60 and get depth in rounds 4-5. If they stack the offensive line the Bills can really be that power run team that over powers opponents.

I think there is a lot of room to use Knox as a full back in addition to a TE. Lots of ways to get him used in a more versatile manner

When looking into which players at 35 or older have put up 1k WR seasons I was pleasantly surprised to see Lofton in 1991 on there. He even followed that up with a decent season at age 36 with over 700 yards. Of the guys to have done it only 4 players have had multiple seasons age 35 or older (Jerry Rice with 3 and TO, Jimmy Smith and Joey Galloway with 2 each). It is also weird that as much as the NFL has become more and more of a passing league with each passing decade since the 1980's there haven't been too many WR's to have success in their mid 30's since the 2000's. In the 2000's Jerry Rice, TO, Joey Galloway, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Derrick Mason, Tim Brown and Cris Carter combined to have 12 of the 18 seasons of players 35 and older to have 1k seasons. 5 of the other 6 came in the 1990's (Jerry Rice, Lofton, Irving Fryar, Drew Hill and Henry Ellard all with 1 season each). In the 2010's it only happened once with Steve Smith back in 2014. I don't know if it is that players retire quicker now due to what we know about concussions and other injuries long term or players in the passing game are taking on more hits and target volume earlier in their careers which leads to more slowdowns? Just odd to see that trend start in the 1990's accelerate in the 2000's and then fall off a cliff in the 2010's?

I think he's a very talented player, It isn't like the 49ers are known for inflating QB stats. Last year they entered the year with Jimmy G and the QB position got so hurt they ended up with Purdy who was a 7th round rookie. This past season he excelled with Purdy a good not great QB who also had 3 other major targets to get the ball to (CMC out the backfield, Debo at WR and Kittle at TE) and Aiyuk still put up a career year. That all being said I think Aiyuk is not in play. Even if the Bills were willing to give up the draft picks I don't see how they can manage the cap hit. I think McBeane is retooling this team in 2024 they have 11 draft picks and likely are using a high pick on a WR. If they feel like that won't work they can make a in season trade or a trade/signing next year when Diggs is off the books and so is a lot of other dead cap.

Diggs agreed to cut the years off. Not sure why that was the case? Even if he puts up 100 catches 1000+ yards and a solid TD total he's going to enter free agency at age 32, I can't see a team giving him a 3-4 year deal at age 32 for huge money. WR's even elite ones usually fall off around age 33/34 very rarely will a WR put up 1000 yard seasons at age 35 or older. Only 18 times has an aged 35 or older player had a 1000 yard receiving season. And 3 of those seasons came from Jerry Rice (1998, 2001 and 2002) and it hasn't happened since 2014 when Steve Smith did it. I am just some random guy online and I know this information so I imagine NFL front offices are aware of this. So why Diggs wants to be a free agent is puzzling to me? Would he want to chase a ring or does he think he can get a team to give him a bigger 3 year deal than he was already under?

The dead cap hit in 2026 (heading into his age 33 season) would have been 13 million on something like a 28 million dollar cap number. A sizable penalty but one the Bills could manage. The dead cap hit in 2027 (heading into his age 34 season) would have been very low like 2ish million on a 27 million dollar cap number. Diggs isn't a dynamic athlete and hasn't had many major injuries and no serious injuries. So his game would still be effective even if he lost a bit of his athleticism in his 30's. I am fine with eating the cost this year (the money was sunk into Diggs anyway) and getting a premium draft pick next year and a ton of cap space going forward. Just gotta nail the draft which is true every year.

Here's what I would do with the WR room. Nothing major just add a couple of draft picks one high up and one in the mid-rounds. Shakir (I think he's going to have to be the WR1 and I think he can handle it esp if Kincaid steps into a larger more impactful role) 1st Round WR (Brian Thomas Jr, AD Mitchell or any other good prospect likely to fall to pick 28 or within a short trade up) Samuel (dude is more of a slot machine type getting a WR high up allows the Bills offense to be flexible with Samuel playing him in the slot or outside when needed). Bench: Hollins, Shorter and a 5th round pick (not sure who is going to fall but a decent depth option with hopefully some return ability for Special Teams should be there in the 5th). I think a high draft prospect would help ease the pressure off of Shakir and Samuel and adding a mid-round pick assists the depth. I think the Bills should also strongly consider a top guard or center prospect at pick 60. Edwards at LG is decent but not inspiring. If Haynes or Bebe is there at pick 60 taking another "plug and play" type guard and moving Edwards to the 6th man role not only improves the offensive line starting 5 short and long term but also helps out the depth at a unit where depth is critical. I think another draft of going offense in the first two rounds is needed. Then with 7 of the remaining 9 selections build up the defense and select a RB and WR for depth on offense. McD as a brilliant defensive mind is going to have to learn to build up a defense with mid and late round picks. He's shown the ability to do so at corner (Taron, Benford, Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace all went 4th to 7th round or un-drafted and have all been productive) and at LB with Milano, now he has to do so with the defensive line and continue to do so with the secondary.

The deal carried him through into age 34 however the outs at age 33 in 2026 was a 13 million dollar dead cap charge (not insignificant but manageable esp if you did a June 1st cut) and the out at age 34 was super easy as the dead cap was only 2-3 million from what I remember. Diggs was reportedly willing to hold out in 2022 if he didn't get a redone deal. So they didn't want to have issues with their 29 year old WR coming off back to back All Pro seasons hold out. So they gave him an extension that married the Bills to him through age 32 an age where most elite WR's still produce. I would have easily extended Diggs in 2022 and not given it a second though.

I think if the Bills draft a WR at pick 28 or 60 and another in the mid-rounds for depth they should be fine at WR without Diggs. Shakir and Samuel are good players and Kincaid/Knox at TE provides some additional punch. Add in a high draft pick to spread out some targets to and a mid-round pick to help in case of injury along with Hollins and Shorter I think you can piece together a solid pass catching unit esp with Cook and Ty good pass catching backs out the backfield. If I were Beane (and thankfully I am not) I would (assuming a trade down isn't there) take the best WR at pick 28 and then a good guard at pick 60. Solidify the WR/Oline group around Josh and take a RB in round 6 and an additional WR in round 5 and use the rest of the picks on defense. I don't want to ***** around with Josh in his prime. You traded Diggs for a good selection in 2025 and for future flexibility you plug your offensive holes high up and you let McD work the mid-rounds to solidify the defense.

The only spot where he can really "compete" for is LG where David Edwards is. And I am fine if that's the competition as Edwards is the weakest link on the line on paper. Spencer Brown the last 10-12 games he played last season was a very good RT, Torrence was the best "pure guard" in the 2023 draft and he put in a good season, Collins isn't a center or a LT but Dawkins and McGovern have those spots on lock coming off career years. It's either a pure depth signing or he is going to compete with Edwards. That's fine I am good with either. Although I would like to see the Bills spend pick 60 on a top guard in the draft and plug in another cheap rookie and have Edwards and Collins as depth. But I don't think that's going to happen.

I think Collins is more so a depth addition. I think they likely view Collins as the David Edwards role last year. A depth o-line player who can play both guard spots or RT and come in as a 6th offensive linemen in jumbo packages. I am all for helping out the depth. Outside of Van Denmark who in limited action showed to be a solid swing tackle the depth was Alex Anderson (an unproven prospect) and Clapp (a marginal backup). Not sure if Collins is making a huge difference but if his medicals are clear you can do worse?

The Texans were probably the only team willing to give up a decent amount to get him. The Bills took the best offer from a team outside their division.

I think they are much more likely to extend Brown while he may come cheaper. I think part of why they traded Diggs for 2025/26 cap relief is to resign the players from the 2021/22 draft.

Probably liked what they saw in medicals and wanted to go into the draft with more bodies along the offensive line? I am shocked to see the deal is worth up to so much for a player that hasn't been productive since 2021 and is coming off a PS stint. Luckily because he was only on Dallas's PS this won't count against comp picks.

The Diggs extension occurred when he was 29 and WR's usually play very well until about age 33/34. Diggs extension secured him through age 34 and the dead cap hit he had on the last year of his deal was 3 million and the dead cap while big at age 33 (13 million) was manageable if they needed an early out. The contract was sensible as you could easily project Diggs to have 3-4 more "elite" years left at his age and lack of injury history generally. The Bills are getting off the worst years of his deal (2025 and 2026) and getting a 2nd round pick out of it. The money for this year is a sunk cost as the Bills were going to be eating most of it having Diggs on the roster. Now the Bills have more money to resign the 2021/22 draft classes and maybe add a piece or two via free agency next year while going into the draft with 3 picks in the first two rounds.

This is a very interesting spot for Diggs to bet on himself. He's going to be 31 this upcoming season so by the time he gets his next "bite at the apple" in free agency he's going to be 32. Now historically HOF caliber WR's at age 32 can and still do put up prime numbers but the "cliff" for many great WR's is around age 33/34. It's very rare for a WR no matter how great to put up fantastic stats at age 34 and almost never heard of for a 35 year old WR to put up 1000 yard seasons. I am some random guy on a message board and I am aware of this fact. So I am sure NFL GM's are also aware of this and would shy away from handing a 32 year old WR who became a problem for a good winning organization a huge bag of money. So I am not sure what Diggs long term goals are here?

I don't see McBeane doing a massive trade up for a non-QB, and honestly I don't think trading up for a non-QB is worth it. The NFL draft is a complete crapshoot AND the NFL it's self is very volatile with injuries. You can pick the right players whose fantastic but then he gets seriously hurt and the chances he washes out is a lot higher. In order for the Bills to go from pick 28 to pick 6 it would probably require the Bills to give up picks 28, 60, 128 and a 1st and 3rd in next years draft. That's 5 selections in the first 4 rounds for one player that isn't a QB (as QB's are both franchise changers and can now play for a long period of time they are the only position worth trading up massively for). If you get Nabers at pick 6 and at a cost of a future 1st, 3rd, and picks 28, 60 and 128 that's 5 good draft picks wrapped up in one single player. If he is a bust or gets hurt you are sinking so much down the drain. Smaller trade ups I am fine with if Brian Thomas Jr falls to the pick 23/24 and they want to trade up I am fine with it. But don't mortgage a lot of two draft classes for a WR.