billsfan89

For the first time in my Bills fandom I fully trust the front office, they have made many more good moves than bad ones overall and their results have been very solid and they have an excellent situation going forward if Josh can develop even more modestly. I think he has the right idea in wanting to not dramatically overpay for Phillips, Lawson and Spain. But I am curious to see if Beane goes "Big Game Hunting" in free agency and goes after a top elite talent like Yannick or Clowney or if he tries to reproduce last off-season where he goes maybe after one 10 million plus aav free agent (around what Mitch got) and then spreads around a few mid-level contracts to fill the remaining gaps. I think personally the team is better off adjusting the approach to retain the team's own free agents and add 1 elite talent and maybe one mid-level contract, and then spending the rest of the money on depth/role players in a manner that still allows the team to roll over 30-40 million in cap space for upcoming extensions.

I think Tampa franchises him, takes a shot to see if he can play in Bruce's system (a complex system that apparently takes a full season to get into.) Indy is an interesting team as with some punch in the skill positions they could be a dangerous team as their O-line is solid, Mack is a decent back, and their defense is solid. However they have a ton of cap space even if they cut Brisett and take the 12.5 million in dead money. So they could sign almost any QB on the market and have plenty of money to add a receiver or two.

Last off-season the offense in particular needed a lot of starters. They had one quality O-line player, a young QB and not much else on offense. They needed more than 2-3 big pieces. And the strategy of filling the biggest need with Mitch and then patching in mid to lower level signings around Josh worked (Along with drafting round 2-3 with offensive players.) But this off-season the team has a much better talent level and the pieces that are missing are higher end pieces. They need those last 2-3 big players to push the team over the top. I think in free agency they can at least find that 1 front line starter to fill a need and then address depth/role players with the rest of their space (after they retain 2-3 of the teams own free agents.) That's fine if your argument is that Clowney isn't the type of player that would make the impact a big contract would justify. I kind of feel the same way about giving him a big contract, I would rather have Yannick because I think he is the better player and a bit younger. But I do think this team needs a significant upgrade at the Edge position, Shaq and Hughes are not frontline elite pass rushers and Murphy is a JAG or slightly above replacement level and Johnson is a longer term project.

Last off-season a lot of people really liked the free agency moves. Mitch was the best center on the market, Brown and Beasley were quality competent receivers brought in at a good price, Ty was considered a sleeper signing and Spain was considered a steal at his cost. Overall I loved what they did even if I did hate the Kroft signing. I would be ecstatic if they did another smart off-season with 1 upper level signing (similar to Mitch 10 million aav or more) then 2-3 mid-level signings (7-9 million aav.) I think most here would be happy. I more advocate signing Yannick and maybe another mid-level starter contract type player because I think the pieces this team is missing is more of an elite level game changers at WR and Edge. Finding an elite player at one of those positions in free agency is more than likely going to cost big money. I think it is still prudent to go after a big fish, resign your own talent and maybe make a few more minor signings. But I would be more than fine if they repeated last off-season.

Seattle gave up a 3rd round pick and mostly filler for Clowney, who if they let him walk and sign with another team will get a comp 3rd round pick back in 2021. So the cost for Clowney for Seattle is more in line with a rental player. They might resign him but I wouldn't be shocked if they let him test the market and take the comp pick. Personally I don't want to sign Clowney. I would rather target Yannick out of Jacksonville who is a bit younger and I feel like would fit better with the culture and defense. The cost cap wise would be the same but I think he is the one piece this team could add at significant expense that would fit the team's timeline and not cap them out going forward. I think that the defensive line needs an elite pass rusher. I think even if you brought back Lawson (who I would like to bring back and still sign Yannick) the pass rush is not consistent enough to be a factor against better O-lines with regularity. I think they need to bring back Lawson to keep the strength in numbers thing the D-line has and bring in a prime edge rusher like Yannick to take the defense over the top. I think the front office can't be too consumed with the future when considering what to do in free agency. If they cut Murphy and Kroft they have 101 million in cap space roughly speaking. They have enough money to resign 2-3 of their primary free agents (Spain, Phillips and Lawson) and make a move to get a big free agent like Yannick (And still have some space to add another mid-level contract and some depth pieces) and still roll over 20-30 million to help ease the burden on extensions that might hit in 2021. The window to win in the NFL is not always there long term. The Bills have a real chance to win in 2020 and they have to consider making a big move and spending on the team now. You don't have to be irresponsible but you can't be too cautious.

The roll over has been a disaster for players because it encourages owners (particularly cheap owners like the Bengals owner) have constantly rolled over cap space and then let the roll over expire after several seasons. I think having roll over discourages teams to spend to the cap as it can always roll over for a long time and then quietly expire if you don't want to spend it. I am not against roll over cap space but I think the way it is currently constructed is very much a negative for the players.

True 4 phase running backs (Ability to catch passes, pass block, run between the tackles and run outside in space) are true elite weapons that add a dynamic to any offense. There aren't too many backs that can be true 3 down backs effective in all 4 phases of being a RB. But the Drop-off between a good running back and an average one isn't that big. So RB is very much a feast or famine type position. Elite players are worth every penny whereas good players don't provide the value needed over average players.

So much can change in the draft process. Right now it is just projections based off of team needs and how the college season played out.

I probably would rank the 2019 special teams as average, so moderately above average isn't that far off. Roberts is a quality sure handed returner. He didn't have many game breaking returns but he had a lot of solid punt returns and having a returner who doesn't turn the ball over has value. In my opinion he is a top 10 returner in the league more than set there. The coverage units had a mostly solid season, I don't recall too many big returns other than the Miami game, the only other major mistake was the blocked punt against the Pats who were the best unit in the league. Punting Bojo was poor, not tragic as he ended the season on a decent run and Haush while losing his 50+ range was very very accurate in the sub 50 range. If I had to grade the special teams I would grade the following units. Returner- A- Coverage Units- B+ Punting- D+ Field Goal Kicking- C Overall Grade - B-

Haush is only about to be 35, odd that he started to lose his leg this year. Even in 2018 he still hit a respectable 4-7 from 50+ (Although his accuracy in the 40-49 range was a bit of an issue at 70%.) Then in 2019 he tightened up the 40-49 yard field goals hitting 90% on those (although he did have one miss in the 30-39 yard range but hey things happen I can take 7-8 in that range as long as it isn't a clutch kick) but then went 1-5 from 50+. I get that high accuracy on 50+ is hard to expect but you need at a minimum a kicker to be at least able to 50% on those while being automatic 90%+ on kicks sub 50. Not having even a 50/50 chance at a kick in the 50+ range is not acceptable. It takes the chance at significant points off the board and limits you in late game situations. I think they have to consider taking a shot at a kicker in round 6 or 7 or going into targeting one highly as an UDFA to bring into camp with Haush. I think it is possible Haush can find his leg and get to being respectable from 50+ but they need to have an option there.

In the NFL you need 2 consistent high end quality receiving options plus 2-3 supplemental receiving options. The Bills only had 1 consistent high end receiving option in Brown and probably only 1-2 supplemental receiving options in Beasley and possibly Singletary out of the backfield once they got him going. That is simply not enough to put together a good quality NFL offense. They were counting on Kroft to be a complementary option for Allen to spread the ball around to and I think they had hoped that Jones or Foster would at worst be a decent complementary option to help ease things. They knew beyond Beasley and Brown they lacked a lot of options but were hoping that Kroft and others would help pick up the slack. Kroft got hurt and Foster/Jones never got it going, Mackenzie did a little here and there but was mostly a gadget player. The Bills need to desperately find a WR that can be a consistent factor in the passing game and they need to find another complementary option at tight end to help add diversification to the core (I like Knox but he needs another year to cook.) The Bills could only do so much in one off-season to fix the offense. They repaired the O-line heavily (with depth to boot) and added some weapons in the passing game and got a good young RB. But overall they need to get the proper weapons around Allen for 2020.

Considering that to be a top 10 player at his position by aav he would have to get a deal at around 10.5 to 11.5 million. That would be too much for my blood. I think Phillips is a very good interior pass rusher, his sack numbers were a bit circumstantial he still made a lot of big plays and got pressure up the middle often. If I had to peg his fair value I would say it would be at about 7.5 million aav that is easy to get out of after 2021. But I think adjusting for the free agency overpay I think his value appropriate to the team is at about 8.5ish million that is easy to get out after 2021. I think once you start to get above 9 million aav I am out. I think 9 million aav is a bit outside of what you want to pay but you would consider it.

The NFL varies so much year to year that it is hard to tell just what the landscape will be. Regardless of what the rest of the division does and the rest of the AFC does it is going to the Bills success is always going to come down to just how much can Josh progress. 2019 was a significant step forward but he wasn't close to being a top 10 QB. Hopefully getting Josh a couple of extra weapons helps.

I think considering the premium safeties have in the modern NFL I think they pay Poyer. I also think it won't take crazy or unreasonable money to resign him. I think a deal between 7-8 million AAV suits him and makes him affordable.

I think they can find a power RB in round 3-5 or in the lower to mid-level free agency range. This is a need for this team to replace Gore (who outside of a handful of games early wasn't the most effective back) with a similar style of player. But I don't think the team needs to go crazy and spend a pick in round 1 or 2 or go after Henry or another big level player via trade or free agency. I think they can fill the need effectively without major resources.

The Bengals moved him... to a bigger house.

One bad muff can cost you a game, so having a sure handed player on punts is worth the roster spot esp if he brings a solid kickoff return (3 yards ain't bad) and I would assume above average to top 10 punt yardage (I think he had a ton of quality 6-8 yard returns with several 10+ yard returns.) The cap number is minimal and the contribution of not generating a turnover on special teams and getting positive return numbers more than justifies the roster spot.

I would say fines are most likely. Unless there are many more examples of skirting rules.

Overall I would say that the value might be there at edge. Even factoring in franchise tags and players resigning there will likely be several prime Edge free agents on the market. I think the market and need for an edge defender (even if Shaq is retained) lines up. Whereas I don't see the value on the WR market. Cooper is the only young stud WR on the market (and he has concerns) the rest of the players are older or more questionable less proven younger players. So I think the value might not be there. Then again WR was thought to be a weak market in Free Agency last season and Beane did hand out retail value contracts to Brown and Beasley (They turned out to be good signings but the value for the production they had going into 2019 wasn't a great value for the aav they got.) I actually trust McBeane (the first time I have ever actually trusted a GM/Coach/Management of the Bills since I have been a fan) if he lets guys walk they weren't a good value and if they bring someone in it makes sense. Granted there have been some bad moves (looking at Kroft and Murphy) but overall they have proven to be excellent at drafting and more than capable in free agency (esp when they have the cash to spend.) My hope is they retain 2-3 of their starting free agents (Spain, Shaq, and Phillips) and then add at least 2 starting pieces to help fill some holes going into the draft (Along with some depth/role players to help round out the roster) where they can be in a position to plug in the final remaining 1-2 starting pieces needed and add stronger depth.

As a kickoff returner, I can't honestly think of a dynamic return he had, maybe there was a couple of times he got the ball out to the 40 or close but I can't say he had a bigger return than that. However he didn't produce any turnovers and he didn't have many bad returns either. But as a punt returner I think he was easily top 10 in the league. No muffed punts and while he never had game breaking returns on punts he always had quality returns that added up. He had many 6-10 yard returns that might not seem like much but help shift field position significantly.

Good for him, better to get out a few years too early than a few years too late.

All fair points, I do agree that I would not dramatically overpay for Shaq. But I would be willing to pay retail to keep him (8-9 million aav with a manageable out after 2021.) I think that if you could he would be somewhere around 7 million (Spotrac has him at 7.6 million aav and they are usually accurate + or – 1.5 million on most signings.) I view him as a 3rdDE (who is a starter on running downs) who can grow into a high end starter. I think given what we pay Murphy for far less production I would be more than comfortable cutting Mucphy and giving his cap hit over to Shaq plus maybe a million. Now if Shaq goes over 9 million aav on the market I do let him walk (I would consider 9 million aav a “Fair Overpay” by NFL Free Agency standards) I think at that point you could take your dollars elsewhere and at worst keep Murphy to be a rotational player and sign Yannick to take the starting role (Either way I would love to have Yannick start opposite Hughes.) I also am interested to see what Phillips, Spain and Shaq all command on the market. Spotrac estimates that Shaq is 7.6 million aav and Phillips a 6.1 million aav. I would be ecstatic if I could get both with easy outs after 2021 for those numbers even plus one million (Thus a 15.7 million dollar total cap hit with easy outs after 2021 when cap space might be a crunch.) They don’t have an estimate on Spain but it would be interesting to see what he commands. Given McBeane’s history with roster/cap management I would trust that they value their own properly and sign these players responsibly.

I don't get the heavy desire for AJ Green, the dude is coming off of back to back injury prone seasons (he literally missed all of 2019 and half of 2018) and another injury riddled campaign in 2016. His production hasn't been elite since 2015 either. Even in 2017 his last healthy season he was decent but only really a high volume stat inflated season. I am not saying that I wouldn't like to see Green as a vet stop gap for one year (Even if it cost a lot of money like 12+ million.) I don't think this team should invest in a 32 year old receiver who hasn't been a truly elite player since 2015. I think a lot of fans are getting fooled by the big name of AJ Green as opposed to the production he is likely to produce in 2020 and beyond. I just don't think he really fits unless it is on a one year deal.

Liguet while not a horrid player seems to be a JAG. I didn't find that he had much more of an impact on the improving run defense. I would love to keep Phillips as I think counting on Henry off an injury is a bit risky and you need depth esp up the middle. I would get letting Phillips walk as Star is a good run stuffer, Oliver a good pass rusher, and you can understand taking the risk on Henry being depth and then adding a rotational player to round things out. But I think there is a lot of value in having Phillips there too.

Outside of that comment about Lawson wanting to get paid (which is fair in football when you might only get one shot at a significant contract) I don't know what makes you think Lawson is someone who would "Get Paid, Get Lazy." Unless I am missing/forgetting something I don't know what else would lead you to believe that Shaq is a bad egg.