billsfan89

The catch 22 is outside of Cooper (who will come at an insane cost) what vet on the market can come in and fill that need and be healthy? I agree that it would be optimal to get a WR1 who is a vet as opposed to counting on a rookie but is Robby Anderson that much better than a first round pick? I like the depth argument better but I just don't see what reciever on the market makes sense for the Bills.

I think given who is on the market and what the need for the team is I would strongly prefer they sign a top pass rusher. I think Yannick is the guy they need to target. He will be 26 in 2020 which means he fits the timeline of the team perfectly (highly productive the next 3-4 seasons where they can take advantage of Josh's rookie deal) and would come at a price that I think could make sense (just as the cap gets tight they get off of Hughes and Star's contracts.) I don't think they need to go with a WR like Cooper because you are going to over pay even by the standards of free agency. The Pass Rushers market is much more flushed and I would love to see them fill a need in that market.

I think Cooper is a good player who would help the offense. But I think he is a bit too inconsistent (Has a case of the dropsies now and again along with disappearing in certain games) to justify his expected large contract (I would say he gets 17-18 million aav.) I think AJ Green is hurt too much recently, I would love to take him on a one year prove it deal (even if it is a 14 million dollar deal) but I think he is going to want to get a multi-year deal which he might get. Emmanuel Sanders isn't the type of WR the team needs and is a bit older. Larry Fitz I don't see playing outside of Arizona. As far as guys like Robby Anderson and Perriman I would love them both on a one year deal for 10ish million but I think both want that big multi-year contract. I think in the end the Bills are probably going to address WR in round 1 unless a trade that is advantageous comes along. I just don't see the team dipping into a big acquisition for Cooper or being able to get a bridge deal with any of the vets.

Sammy looked a little bummed when KC was down 24-0 (a considerable deficit) a teammate told him to be more positive and he became more positive. This is a non-story. I get why Sammy has a bit of a rep in how he left the Bills and Rams but he hasn't really had much going on as far as being a major issue on KC (Unless I am missing something.) His bigger issue isn't in the locker room but rather due to his inability to stay healthy. I don't think Sammy even if he stayed healthy was ever going to live up to his draft hype (This guy was being seriously compared to some HOF type players coming out of the draft.) But I do think that if Sammy could stay healthy he could be a DeSean Jackson type burner WR1. He just has to stay healthy and keep himself from getting into any drama (Which on KC he has.) Overall I just don't particularly care about him, it has been 3 seasons since he has been here. Move on.

Kroft was in my opinion the worst signing of the 2019 off-season (although the off-season was mostly littered with great signings.) Even factoring out the fact that he got hurt I would still say they overpaid for a backup TE with moderate upside. In my opinion Kroft is as good as gone in 2020 as he is set to make 6.5 million and if cut saves 5 million on the cap. Yes the Bills cap isn't an issue but if you sign Spain, Phillips and Shaq to deal (even 2 out of the 3) that 89 million in cap space will go down significantly esp if this team wants to preserve 30-40 million in roll over cash. This team could seriously use that 5 million in space if they intend to resign 2-3 of their free agents and desire roll over space. I don't see any value Kroft provides at 6.5 million, I would much rather just cut him and sign Hunter Henry or another vet TE to a one year deal to allow Knox to develop a bit more. I don't see any team trading for Kroft esp at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit. I think the Bills options are cut him and take 1.5 million in dead cap (but save 5 million overall) or keep him at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit. Personally I cut him and save the space.

Other team's front offices have their own analytics, PFF are essentially amateurs who watch a lot of football and attempt to grade each play. Front offices have actual staff who attempt to quantify how good players on their team and other teams are.

That makes sense, if you are driven by "me against the world" then suddenly when the world is on your side you lose your edge. I hope he realizes that you have to keep grinding on it if you want to be great.

It's weird because Baker seems like such a competitive guy that you would think he would just keep working to be better. Character was never much of an issue in terms of work ethic when he was coming into the league. But everyone can get high on their own supply I guess. Hopefully the wake up call sticks and he gets some good coaching. It would be nice for the AFC North to have 3 top teams beating up on each other.

The Window to win in the NFL is small. This team has enough cap space and not many long term commitments to both retain their own free agents and add a couple of significant contracts. This team can add a big contract like Yannick, resign Spain, Lawson and Phillips and the other lesser free agents, and still have plenty of roller over to help take care of future extensions. Don't take your chance to win for granted. The NFL is a year to year league.

I also think that Baker had assumed his own invincibility after years and years of success from Oklahoma to a highly productive rookie year he had no reason to believe that he would keep going upward. But I think mentally he had assumed that if he kept just doing what he had been doing that it would just work out. I think if he gets humbled by this past season that is going to be a good thing for him long term. If the Browns can get a quality coach and improve their O-line and defense I don’t see why Baker couldn’t lead the Browns to a successful season of 9-10 wins. Sometimes players need to be punched in the mouth (metaphorically) in order to combat resting on their own reputation.

Funchess wouldn't be an awful signing on a low end one year deal but considering his best season was 850 yards and he is coming off of an injury I don't consider it to be any signing with any sort of impact. He would be a reclamation project for a team that needs a bit of immediate pop. I think WR is the pick at pick 22 and then they are better off trying to get Robby Anderson or Perriman on a 9-10 million dollar one year deal or even kick the tires on AJ Green for a one year 10ish million dollar deal if that's the market for him. OR draft a WR in round 1 and sign Hunter Henry to a one year deal to add a big body at the tight end position.

If I am mocking my game plan for the off-season I would peg it as such. 1- Cut Murphy and Kroft free up nearly 10 million more in cap space. 2- Resign Lawson, Spain, and Phillips to a combined 27.5 million aav thus still having nearly 74 million in cap space. 3- Sign Yannick to a deal in the range of 17.5 million aav to step up the pass rush 4- Sign Hunter Henry to a one year 7.5 million deal to help add a big target for Allen and allow Knox and Sweeny some time to develop. 5- Draft a big bodied WR in round 1 and draft a between the tackles runner in round 4. 6- Add a CB in round 2 to finalize an elite defense and add a LB in round 3 to sure up that position. All that should still allow the Bills to have about 28 million in roll over to help when Dawkins and Milano need extensions in 2020 while adding Yannick and Henry to help supplement the existing roster and keeping the core free agents. When Tre's contract is up Star and Hughe's contracts become expiring thus this team has a 2 year window to win and win big. Winning beyond the next two years will depend on the drafting in 2020 and beyond as well as Josh's development. But with the existing talent core and the current cap situation you have to be able to "go for it" to an extent in the short term.

I think they make an effort to resign Spain I also don't think they are going to make a move for Conklin. I think they like Ford and view Ty as a nice option. Ford improved a lot as the season went on, give him another off-season to learn and work on things (he was considered to be a bit raw coming out of the draft) and I think he improves. Better to spend the free agency dollars elsewhere in my opinion. Although I will never ever hate spending more on the o-line I do understand why they wouldn't go after Conklin.

I would rather kick Ford inside to take over for Spain if the team is going to sign Conklin. The O-line with Ty, Long, Bates and others still has tons of quality depth.

I would rather spend cap dollars on a mid-level or lower veteran between the tackles RB or a mid-round pick. I like Yeldon as depth and Singletary as the lead back so I don't think RB is a major need worthy of sinking big cap dollars into. Henry would be an amazing add but at 10+ million aav for a position that deprecates quickly is not what the Bills should commit to. I wouldn't mind signing Carlos Hyde to a one year 4.5 million dollar deal or another veteran runner to that type of deal or just go with a RB in round 4ish. As far as free agent WR's Amari Cooper will be the big name but at nearly 20 million aav I would pass if he hits the market, he is good but also drops a lot of passes and disappears in a lot of games. AJ Green is the other big name but he has been often injured in recent years and while I would love to have him on a one year deal (even at 10+ million) I think he wants a longer commitment. Larry Fitzgerald can still contribute but I think the team needs more pop and speed as opposed to a solid possession receiver. E.Sanders is an interesting option but certainly older and on the smaller side. The only other names that could be interesting are Robby Anderson and Perriman. I would go after either Anderson or Perriman on higher one year deals (even if it cost 10 million) to bridge a rookie draft pick and provide depth as opposed to spending big on Cooper or Green or to a lesser extend Sanders. Even if Anderson came at a larger commitment I would be interested in seeing what he has to offer as he is a 6 foot 3 speedster who has produced decently on some awful offenses. Another more interesting way to go about it would be to add some pop to the skill position core by going after a top tightend. I like Knox long term but it would be good to let him develop for one more year as a backup as opposed to forcing him in over his head. I think Hunter Henry on a one year deal at about 7.5 million would be a smart add and then you can go WR in round 1 while going RB in round 3 or 4 and then fill a defensive need in round 2. Overall I think the free agency dollars are going to be spent on the defense and retaining the team’s own free agents. I think they add a CB2 and a prime time pass rusher via free agency and then turn the attention of the draft to address WR, O-line, and RB with maybe one or two mid-level offensive signings to boost areas of depth/role players. Either way I think McBeane should make an effort to improve the team significantly but without making more than 1-2 major big commitments.

I used to try and defend PFF but man are they getting really bad.

Does anyone know how accurate Spotrac is when it comes to their "Market Value" estimations? Like comparing what they thought players would get to what they actually got?

In the NFL when you might only have a chance at one big contract you should get as much as you can (or at least get as much you can in guarantees) so I can't blame the guy. While I am sure he made nice money on his rookie deal he needs to set himself up for life with this next deal. I think you shouldn't overpay for Shaq, I think ideally the Bills will come in at 8 million aav whereas he is going to want 10 million aav. I think ultimately they split the difference and settle at 9 million aav. But free agency in the NFL can get whacky so who knows. I think keeping Phillips is more pressing but having Shaq locked in at a reasonable rate is good.

I wouldn't classify Allen as a for sure resigning. He has to play better in 2020 and beyond to be a for sure resigning. Milano, Dawkins and Tre are the only ones I would say are "due."

I think they keep 2 out of 3 of the "Big 3" free agents (Spain, Shaq, and Phillips.) Retain Wallace and Foster as exclusive rights free agents and add 1-2 big pieces to complement the roster a bit before going to fill any remaining needs via the draft.

I love Henry but he is coming off of a 303 carry season (and a 34 carry playoff game with an other game of likely heavy touches coming) and he is going to command 10 million or more in value with a hefty guarantee. As great as Henry can be I think he is more likely not going to live up to a hefty contract. I think the Bills are better off spending their cap dollars on keeping their own talent and signing a pass rusher or receiver.

I would peg his aav closer to 18 million but 20 million isn't out of the question. You tend to have to overpay guys in free agency.

Lev Bell doesn't really have "breakaway speed" but because of how patient and disciplined a runner he is in addition to how dynamic his receiving was he became one of the most productive backs in recent memory. Not saying Singletary can be that type of back but that you don't need elite speed to be a dynamic back.

Considering they were mocking the whole thing years after it happened in an interview out of character I think he was telling the truth.

The team isn't that many pieces away from being a serious contender but they can't fill all of their needs through the draft. I hope they at least add a impact pass rusher to help the pass rush against the Pats and other elite offenses and possibly another mid-level player at linebacker or corner. They need to add those 2-3 pieces in free agency then fill in the remaining 2 needs via the draft. They can't get too conservative forfeiting a chance to win now in order to preserve a future that might not be there.