billsfan89

Heath Miller in 2005 drafted 30th overall borderline HOF career contributor on some very successful Steelers teams. Vernon Davis in 2006 was drafted 6th overall and he turned in a good career. Mercedes Lewis in 2006 drafted 28th overall and he played a long career turning in a 6 year stretch where he was one of the top 10 tightends in the league and probably would have been better had he not been on an awful team most of his career. Greg Olsen in 2007 was drafted 30th overall and turned in a HOF career Dustin Keller in 2008 was drafted 30th overall and turned into one of the top 5 TE's in the league for a 2-3 year period before a catastrophic injury derailed his career. Brandon Pettigrew in 2009 was drafted 20th overall never an elite TE but turned in a 4 year stretch of top 10 to 5 production before injury derailed his career. Jermaine Gresham in 2010 was drafted 21st overall opened his career with a 5 year stretch turning in top 10 to 5 production before injuries knocked him down a peg although he hung around longer than Pettigrew and Keller. Tyler Eifert the first true bust of this bunch although Eifert put together a very good 2015 he never eclipsed 500 yards outside of that one season. From 2005 to 2013 there were 8 Tight Ends drafted in the first round. I would say 3-4 were great players. Davis, Olsen, and Miller that more than justified their first round billing. I would then say that Lewis is borderline as while he was never elite he was a good player consistently for a long time and probably would have been a top 5 TE in the league had he been on a better team. I would then say 3 players Pettigrew, Gresham, and Keller gave you 4 years or more of top 10 production at their position before injuries derailed their careers or declined their careers. So can you call them busts? That depends, in the NFL 4 years isn't a short time to produce at an elite level, but for a player drafted in the first round you at least want 7-8 highly productive years. So I would put them as a semi-bust. I would only say that 1 TE drafted in the first round is really a bust and that's Eifert who only turned in one good season. That leaves the TE position in the first round at the following hit rate. 50% Hit (HOF or borderline HOF career) 37.5 Somewhere in the middle (4-5 years of high end production) 12.5% Outright Bust (No prolonged stretch of production)

The Bills would be justified in making a win now move, I don't think anyone is knocking the Bears for aggressively going after Mack. However I agree that the price was simply too high. The Bills likely would have had to have given up pick 40, their 4th round pick, and a 2020 2nd, along with a huge contract. It is simply too much to give up for a top but not elite pass rusher. I would have given up pick 40 straight up and a 4th in 2020 but that's about it. Even then that might have been a foolish move. Overall I think the Bills were correct in backing off given what the demands were.

Tight ends taken in the first round have a pretty good success rate. Yes some of them have had careers that were OK (Top 10 players for a 3-6 year period flirted with top 5 at times) and careers that started out great but then got derailed due to injury. There are others that were some HOF or near HOF talent. Very few were outright busts. Tight end is a need I wouldn't mind taking a tight end at 9 if Hock is really that kind of caliber of prospect.

Injury kills a lot of careers. Motivation or lack it lacks is a factor too. Also being drafted into the wrong situation is something that can derail a career. Also sometimes scouts just get it wrong on how a player's athletic ability translates to the NFL A player can be a freak athlete who had success at the college level but they just don't make it work when they need to be a polished player

Kiper loved Josh Allen to the point where he would have taken him first overall. So its not surprising to see him showing some love. I think the Bills do need a good draft to put themselves over the hump but this team is trending in the right direction.

If I had to rank the Bills coaches during the drought from worst to be (Worst being number one) here are my picks. 1- Dick Jauron - Soft defense in an era that was much more physical, weak bend don't break mentality, bad game management, poor OC decision making, and all around bad drafting. 2- Rex - Had too much faith in his system to the point where himself a defensive specialist took a top 3 defense in the league and dragged them down to the middle of the pack simply due to forcing his system when the talent was there to run the other system. He also built a toxic culture by taking on too many head cases. Only positive was his offensive coaches were good. He won more than most coaches in the drought but he also had the most talent to work with. 3- Greggo - Didn't do a whole lot when he had a lot of talent, bad in game management and bad overall decision making when it came to the offense too. 4- Chan - Worked miracles with smoke and mirrors on offense but just made some awful decisions with D-coordinators. He didn't have a lot of talent so I can't say his lack of winning was just on him. 5- Mularky - In two years he had one winning season, in game management wasn't the best and offense his specialty wasn't that great. Probably would be higher on this list if it wasn't for the fact that he got out of dodge quickly. 6- Marrone - The least terrible. He had some talent for sure and put together a winning season with it. Certainly understood how to build a culture and made good defensive coaching decisions. However for an offensive guru he presided over some trash defenses. Once again probably would be rated worse if he didn't get out of dodge quickly. Dam this is a sad list.

Tyreek Hill is the perfect fit for Josh Allen or any big armed QB for that matter. It would be an amazing fit football wise but I am not seeing this as being a fit for the process. McD is building a culture not hounding for talent. Granted talent wins football games but it is a more sustained approach to try and have a good team culture. This is a big time offense and not one worth touching for both moral and football reasons.

The track record of first round tight ends is actually pretty good. Not that many were busts. Yes some of them like Brandon Pettigrew and Jermanie Gresham don't end up becoming top players in the league they were really productive top 10 and even borderline top 5 players some years. Even Ebron a player thought to be kind of good but not worth the pick was still a top 10 tight end for 2 seasons (2015 and 2017) while also having a career year in 2016 where he was a top 5 tight end before having his break out 2018. Ebron even signed a somewhat sizeable contract with Indy averaging 9 million a season. I feel like as the role of a tight end expands beyond blocking and there are less harsh big catches over the middle to take tight ends will be more and more prominent in the NFL and the value of having a good one will go up. I would rather take a pass rusher at pick 9 but if they take a truly special tight end talent it would fit a grave need and without reaching all too much.

I think if he isn't working out at guard in 2019 then in 2020 it could be a good experiment to try and kick the tires there. Not likely but its not that crazy.

Fitz has an OK arm with solid but not elite accuracy but he throws the ball like he has a Josh Allen sized arm and Brady like accuracy. Meaning that he doesn't understand his limitations which results in a lot up and down plays. He takes a lot of risks and given his mid-level talent his play varies wildly. Fitz really is the ideal backup in some ways in that he can go 3-1 and look like a world beater doing so, he also by all accounts is a beloved locker room guy which is a good thing for a backup QB to be. But Fitz can't really sustain success unless he has a stacked team around him. So you get a guy whose career has been very wild in terms of highs and lows.

The tag should be converted to a right to match tag. The teams get to keep their player or do a sign and trade. The players get their value either way.

They could but Ziggy must have a huge injury concern since he remains unsigned. Suh I do feel might have something left in the tank but he is by all reports a malcontent and not exactly a process guy. Clark is a top flight pass rusher and would take the Bills defense to an elite level. Now I think it would be difficult to justify a trade for Clark since trading a premium pick plus other picks for a player you give a big contract to is usually something that backfires on the team trading the picks. So there is a very real argument against the trade but Ziggy and Suh wouldn't match Clark's production.

I think Zay has a shot to be a pretty good WR. He bounced back from a historically bad rookie year to show that at the very worst he can play in the league. WR's now seem to take a few years to get going so I think in year three for him to have a mini-breakout is possible. I do agree that McBeane doesn't have faith in him. They brought in a lot of competition and he will get no favors competing against Foster and whomever they bring in via the draft. But I still think that they feel like Zay can be a part of the team just that they aren't counting on his progression.

I don't see Fournette being a process guy nor worth taking the risk on.

32 sacks the past three seasons. He is also a former second-round pick in 2015. He is also turning 26 in June. I am normally opposed to trading a premium pick/s for a player who you have to then hand out a big contract extension for but I think that the Bills need to strike while the iron is hot and make their version of a Mack trade. I would definitely trade a 4th in 2019 and a 1st in 2020 for Clark and a 4th in 2020. The Bills can afford it cap wise and Clark would instantly anchor the pass rush for the next 4-6 years. Now I also wouldn't give him a 20 million dollar a year deal. If he can be had for around 18 million aav that would make sense. Clark and Ed Oliver or another pass rusher at pick 9 would make this D-line super dynamic and deep. The Bills could then still add a pass catcher and other offensive needs in round 2 and 3 which should help Josh Allen some more. He isn't worth 20 million a year, not among the top 5 pass rushers in the league but not that far off either.

In team sports the whole needs to be greater than the sum of its parts. In football not only do you have to have great talent but you have to have coaching that is putting talent in the proper scheme. You can have great 4-3 talent but if you are running a 3-4 scheme then the results won't be good. I think the Bills draft strategy will be to take whatever the best defensive talent falls to them at pick 9 or trade down if a good opportunity for a trade down is available that give them good value. Then they will likely try and fill offensive needs in rounds 2 and 3 while building depth in the mid rounds.

The AAF could still have operational assets somewhere. Yes it might not be much money but having an active lawsuit might let the players get a piece of whatever is left in their operations funds.

Unless he suddenly becomes motivated and gets in shape he is done. Yes some team might give him a camp invite but he won't ever be an effective player unless he changes his approach and attitude.

A good defensive player will be there at pick 9 and a trade down could be there as well.

A good bubble player to kick the tires on in camp nothing major but these moves on the edges of the roster can make a difference.

Not sure there is a big move to be had, maybe Ziggy but I have a feeling his medicals aren't good or why else wouldn't he be signed. I don't think a malecontent like Suh makes sense for the process and I don't see where else they can go to get at least an above average starting player without character issues.

Next year the XFL starts. Hopefully they can give it a real go. Vince McMahon sold off a bunch of WWE stock recently to further fund the venture. I think he can easily fund one full season unlike the AAF who never seemed to have that one big investor.

Why would the Giants trade up for a QB when they could just take a QB at pick 6 and not have to worry about a team trading up to 7 or 8 and taking their guy? The Raiders seem to be sticking with Carr not sure who they would want at 9. The more realistic scenario is Washington, Miami, or Cincy trading up for Lock or Haskins to get ahead of Denver sitting at pick 10.

I don't buy it. I don't see what talent they are in love with to trade up massively. In the NFL trade ups for non-QB's rarely end up panning out. Yes the Falcons lucked out with Julio Jones but that tends to be the exception. The Bills got lucky that they got value for Sammy (even though Sammy is a more than respectable NFL player he wasn't worth the cost.) I wouldn't hate the Bills packaging 9, 40, and a mid rounder to go up and get a Josh Allen or another elite pass rusher. But that would greatly limit the Bills ability to go out and address other needs losing a premium pick plus a 4th rounder to go up and get one player. I say stick at 9 and take one of the pass rushers that fall to you or trade down to a team looking to get ahead of Denver for Lock or Haskins. Ideally the Bills could trade back with Washington and just take BPA at pick 15 and then go out and fill needs with 2 second round picks and pocket some additional mid round selections and 2020 picks.

Tommy Harris was an elite one gap DT for the Bears in the mid 2000's (he was a key piece from 2005-2007 when he was a pro-bowler and although his play declined for the years after he complied 31.5 sacks in 8 seasons. Harris and others in the mid-2000's played at a size under 300 pounds and were super effective. Now a lot of the smaller DT's did end up getting hurt but that was of course in an era where while the NFL was still a passing league teams did run more and have interior O-line players best suited to maul in the run game over being pass protectors.