billsfan89

The Bills roster has flaws but it certainly is the most complete roster they have had since 2015 (Coming off of a top 5 defense in 2014 and adding a lot of offensive talent) but unlike 2015 the Bills actually have the coaching and culture set up to capitalize on the talent. I also think the approach to building the team is much more sound beyond just having good coaching. They have a coherent plan at QB and appear to understand how to acquire defensive talent both via free agency and via the draft. BUT the results thus far through 2 seasons have been mixed. So although on paper the team looks to have added a lot of talent in areas of weakness while retaining almost every component of the team that was successful it still has to bear out on the field. I think anything less than 9 wins is fireable for McD. So while the positivity this off-season has been deserved it still has to play out on the field.

Just do all booth reviews like in college. Why do we trust the coaches to make a limited amount of reviews? Just let the professionals do it and find a way to streamline it as much as possible.

A lot of people were projecting Glenn as more of a guard or RT coming out of college which is why he fell to early round 2. Obviously he was one of the better LT’s in the league from 2012 to 2015 (and fairly healthy as he started most of his games in 2012 to 2013 and started all 16 games in 2014-2015.) But unfortunately for the Bills Glenn got hurt in 2016 and again in 2017 (although whenever he was on the field he was still a good player.) So I think after the Bengals couldn’t keep him on the field in 2018 it is probably a good idea for them to put the rookie Williams at LT and kick Glenn next to him. Hopefully Cordy can revive his career as a guard. I think if Glenn can stay healthy at guard the Bengals O-line could be greatly improved. The Bengals spent their 2018 and 2019 first round picks along the O-line (J.Williams and B.Price) if both those players can round into form and Glenn gives them some solid play I think things will turn around for them quick.

I think you are correct that the running game could be utilized against smaller DT’s however Donald grades out pretty good against the run so it is not like 290ish pound DT’s are going to be ineffective against the run always. Even the Pats threw a lot of short and intermediate passes (what has been a big part of replacing the running game’s useage in modern NFL offenses) in their playoff run as opposed to being a uber run heavy offense. Brady threw it 44 times in the divisional round against the Chargers and although the Pats ran a lot that mostly came after they were up and salting away the clock. Brady threw it 46 times in the AFC championship game and his passing was much more effective than their ground and pound game (none of their 3 backs average more than 3.9 yards per carry.) So I don’t forecast the running game making a comeback (Much like old school back to the basket centers never made a comeback in the NBA even though they were facing smaller competition) in the modern NFL at least not in the old school ground and pound sense. I think you will get 2-3 playoff teams each year that will be successful with a great defense and an offense based off of running and avoiding turnovers. But those teams won’t get past the conference championship because some other team will have a QB and more consistent offense to pair with a good defense. Is it possible there will be exceptions? Yes of course but in general teams that have good QB’s on rookie deals and teams with veteran QB’s taking a pay cut will be the consistent Super Bowl contenders. Great defenses like the Broncos in 2015 and the Legion of Boom are hard to sustain past a 2-3 year period, keeping a good O-line and skill positions core around a bad QB while also keeping an elite defense together is hard to do under the cap even if you aren’t paying a QB much. I could be wrong (I am just some D-bag fan on a forum) but to me the trend to get smaller and more athletic along both sides of the ball is going to continue. The running game will still be a component to NFL offenses esp as running back like Bell, Barkley, and Gurley that are both rushing and passing threats emerge. But I see the running game staying at 30-40% of offensive snaps as opposed to the well above 50% it used to be. Teams used to on average run the ball 50% of the time. Now that average is about 40%. I think it won’t go much below 40% but it won’t ever sniff 50%.

I disagree that a heavy mauling run first offense is a sustainable approach to winning in the modern NFL. Yes if you have a dominant defense and a stacked O-line you can play that way. However keeping a defense intact is hard to do in the cap era. Typically a defense has a 2-3 year shelf life as a top league unit. Even Seattle's defense which was a lot of young guys drafted together only had a 4-5 year dominant run before falling down to less elite status and those defenses were composed with 3 extraordinary draft classes. I think in the end you have to build a passing attack long term to sustain success in the NFL. To draw an NBA parallel again, the teams that tried to go big and old school against small ball lineups mostly failed. To argue for a run first offense as a long term strategy will fail.

Baker had one of the best rookie seasons in a long time. The team won 7 games and a tie, the team acquired a big name player in Odell (as well as Hunt) and some defensive talent of note (Vernon, Richardson, and Greedy.) Overall I think it is understandable to think a QB who had success as a rookie will have more success with greater skill position players around him and the defense which was decent in 2018 could be improved given the talent acquisitions. The Jets acquired some sexy players but they had a horrid record and their roster has more questions. The Bills acquisitions were more wide spread but less top heavy and the national media doesn't pay attention to the Bills much let along a Bills team coming off of 6 wins.

Injuries or something else unforeseen can happen. However I could actually see the Bills trading up to get an elite WR IF they feel a stud number one WR is the missing piece. McBeane has never been shy about trading up for a player they covet. Josh, Zay, Dawkins, Edmonds, Knox, and Ford are all examples of draft day trade ups they have made off the top of my head. That's 2 trades per-draft. So it is not as if McBeane isn't afraid to go up and get their guy. Also if the acquisitions in 2019 and the 2020 free agency acquisitions fill out most of the teams needs and they are really just missing an elite WR for Josh then the move become plausible to trade up from somewhere in the 20’s or teens to a top 5 pick. Atlanta traded a 2ndand future 1stto go up to take Julio Jones because they felt like the only thing stopping them from one of the best offenses in the league was an elite WR opposite White. But I don’t see the Bills having less than 6 wins. This team with one of the worst mismanaged QB situations crafted out 6 wins and the defense that carried the team remains intact and filled with young and prime talent. The offense which was horrid is greatly improved in all aspects.

Much like basketball the NFL is entering into its own small ball era. Defensive linemen are becoming better and better athletes. Linebackers are becoming more like hybrid safeties and safeties and corners are equally as athletic. I think in 5 years you will be seeing Aaron Donald and Ed Oliver be the prototype for DT’s. Sub 300 pound uber quick and uber athletic players. While LB’s will look more and more like strong safeties sub 240 quick and able to cover. The Bills defense is being adapted to that style and it is good to see the Bills being a modern team in that sense. I really enjoy seeing them building to where the league is going as opposed to chasing trends 5 years too late.

The Bills are generally speaking off the national radar esp when the team is average or bad. So I don't know why fans are always shocked or indignant when they get disrespected or ignored by the national media.

Ed Oliver should be a help to the pass rush.

My question with Wentz is can he stay on the field. Dude is coming off a torn ACL and a broken back in two consecutive seasons. Those are pretty serious injuries. He was an MVP candidate in 2017 no doubt and he was pretty dam good in 2018 when he played but he then got another serious injury. I think the Eagles do bounce back as they strengthened their O-line and got added some nice veteran pieces to both sides of the ball. But that is only if Wentz is actually healthy. I do think that the Rams however do fall down to Earth as their O-line is suspect.

No Mitch either on the O-line. We are going to see how good Mahomes is with a weakened O-line and Sammy and their 2nd round pick as their best WR's. Kelce is dam good but without Hill stretching the field things look worse.

They will probably platoon Ragland and Lee. Ragland is a thumper on early downs and Lee will come in on passing downs

I think if a team were interested enough to offer a multi year deal of any consequence he would have signed. He will likely take another one year deal given the red flags vs. good but not elite production.

I personally would have loved for them to trade up for DK at around pick 58 to 59. I would have loved for them to take a chance on him as a Mike Evan's type deep threat even with the health concerns as at that pick you can take a chance. But I don't think any fan can really be that upset with their decision to draft Knox and Single in the 3rd round. Both were players of need even if some didn't feel the value was there. For one the team not drafting a WR means that they like what they have on the roster behind Brown and Beasley. They likely think that there is a good chance Foster and or Zay can develop into a reliable WR. I remember NY Giants fans in the 2007 off-season were bitching how the team didn’t sign any notable free agents. I forgot which pundit said it but he said that if a team has some cap space and doesn’t make any major acquisitions it probably means they like what they have on the roster. That was my interpretation of the Bills draft. They signed Brown and Beasley (so it is not like they are just rolling over the same core that didn’t produce) and they like Zay and Foster behind them. In 2020 if they need some more help they can go to the draft or find another player via trade or free agency.

Almost every team's chances are dependent on their QB. If almost any teams QB gets hurt that's all she wrote for the season. The Bills season rests mainly on Josh Allen both his health and development.

A Tight End that can BOTH run block and be a threat in the receiving game is a huge asset. Which is why Gronk was such a weapon. But Lee Smith is not in any way shape or form a serious threat in the receiving game. He is a one dimensional player whose dimension is diminished in the modern NFL. A dual threat is so much more valuable because you can go smash mouth or toss it to them in the passing game. Lee Smith is not catching many passes. I think blocking tight ends have a place as a niche in certain situations but that niche is probably only 15-20% of offensive snaps, why are we paying good money for that esp when there were decent options on the roster for that.

McBeane's free agency decisions from 2017 to 2018 have been a bit of a mixed bag. 2017 McD was working with Whaley and they brought in Hyde, Haush, and Poyer who all were studs. However they also paid a nice chunk of change for Vlad, DiMarco, and Tolbert who didn't make much of an impact. In 2018 Trent Murphy failed to make an impact and Star while solid was massively overpaid. They also overpaid for Ivory who was subpar outside of the Titans game. Now I like what they did this off-season in free agency. But this Lee Smith move just on paper looks like the DiMarco, Vlad, and Ivory signings where it is good money after bad.

Oliver might be good as a 3-4 DE but in a 4-3 he probably wouldn't have the elite speed needed to work off the edge. Ed is a 287 pound dude who runs a 4.7 40. That's elite for a DT but that's fairly average speed for a DE. I could see the Bills shifting Ed around esp on goal line and short yardage packages to really hold the edge without giving up speed. But he is going to be rushing the passer from the intro 85% or more of the time.

Blocking tight ends are going the way of the fullback in that it is so heavily niche and only useful in a small amount of scenarios. Outside of short yardage, goal line, and maybe some early down running situations there really isn’t a need for a blocking tightend in the modern NFL. Passing downs, early downs, and almost any intermediate situation a blocking tight-end is inefficient and will not be on the field. Lee Smith isn’t worth this contract even if he is the best at what he does because what he does isn’t on the field a lot.

There were people saying that DiMarco could be a valuable piece given his versatility and blocking. I haven't seen much impact from DiMarco and while I don't doubt that there is a niche use for a blocking tight end but it seems like a position with limited utility in an increasingly more spread and passing oriented league. I don't doubt the need for an upgrade to the blocking TE position but it seems like a position that is fairly easy to find at a much cheaper cost and a position that is more of a niche that has limited use.

This reminds me of the DiMarco move. Paying a premium for a niche position that becomes less and less relevant as the years go by.

The Bills did just give Kroft a significant contract and they just drafted Knox. But behind those two you have Sweeney a 7th rounder more or less destined for the PS unless he has a great camp, Jake Fisher a blocking tight end at best, and Croom a player who didn't make too much of an impact last season. I think Kroft and Knox are locks to make the roster and the team typically has 3 TE's on the roster. So that leaves one roster spot open between Fisher, Croom, and Sweeney. I don't think either one of those 3 are that good so I wouldn't mind brining in Rudolph to start in front of Kroft who can be deployed in 2 TE sets and out of the slot via short and medium yardage situations while having Knox be the third stringer. But I wouldn't trade anything more than a 5th for Rudolph. Kyle is a nice Tight end probably top 10 in the league. And I am not too sold on Kroft and Knox seems like he needs a year to polish his game. So overall I am willing to upgrade the TE position but not at too heavy a cost. Considering this front office appears to know what they are doing when it comes to the draft I am more reluctant to trade picks even mid to late rounders for vets. But even if Rudolph gives you two years of top 10 TE production for a 5th round pick that's a good deal and one that allows Knox to progress naturally to take over the position.

I think there is value to having a QB with a healthy amount of starts under his belt. Josh has more starts in his NFL Career than Barkley. Coaches can provide most guidance but there is something to be said about having an active player in the locker room who has a lot of experience. Matt Cassell has 81 starts under his belt and played in a lot of systems under some well respected coaches. Josh McCown has 76 career starts and been in all sorts of systems. I wouldn't sign a Cassell or McCown to usurp Barkley and I wouldn't guarantee either a roster spot over Jackson. But if they can get either to take the vet minimum to compete for a third string QB spot I don't see why the team shouldn't do that. Even if they cut them before the season starts because Jackson looks good there is still some value to having all 3 players who have a total of 17 NFL starts around a seasoned pro.

I think the team should still bring into camp a vet QB. The only two out on the market are Josh McCown and Matt Cassell. I wouldn't mind the team brining in either if they wanted an easy check as a mentor QB3. Barkley is a solid backup but not exactly a seasoned vet. I liked Anderson as a nice mentor that Josh could learn from and rely on without Anderson having much of a chance to play given Barkley is the backup. I think Jackson could benefit from competing against an established vet too. Not sure if either McCown or Cassell are interested in such a role but if either were I think it would add value for Josh to have an active player with a lot of experience.