HardyBoy

Not just tipped balls, but since he's so tall, wonder if he'll be getting tips while he's still in the motion of getting his arm up, causing more tips to go up high in the air instead of just getting batted down.

The feeling I had reading this in the past tense...that said, I don't think that feeling really exists...everytime I think it does something like the Cards game happens!

Nice!

Safe to say the majority of your skills were gained through on the job training? That's not the case for nfl players. The skills that makes them able to join the league are developed prior to joining the league. Also, I do believe there is a difference between gov't jobs and jobs in the private sector. And yes, the military and the nfl both do a bad job preparing their employees for post career life.

There are viable alternatives for those career paths (private contractors, etc.). The nfl used non-competative means through anti-trust law exemptions to eliminate or aquire other competitive leagues...same with all the major sports in the USA.

Tannehil was on the verge of breaking out imo the year he tore his acl in training camp. He ended the season before super strong, he just should have gotten the knee repaired, and instead tried to rehab, and nope. https://dolphinstalk.com/2018/07/22/ryan-tannenhill-and-the-ghosts-of-acl-injuries-past/

I'm right around episode 18 of season 2 of DS9 and reason I'm watching is I heard it turns into some of the all time best sci fi starting in season 3 (and it already has been great). Very very very pumped (I started watching in early April too, so that's a lot of DS9...with a 16 month old and a just turned 4 year old, this is pretty much literally the first tv I've watched for myself in almost a year. Their stuff during the day if tv is on and catching up on work I put off watching them part of the day. DS9, at least so far, sneaky good show to watch with a 4 year old (only skipped a few episodes because of violence). Between watching DS9 and moving from South Florida to Raleigh last fall and experiencing a real spring for the first time in 8 years, I feel like a fog is coming off...so yeah, thinking the last year might have caused some lasting impacts... What's this thread about again?

I heard someone somewhere talking about how this is a super shallow DT draft and a deep draft at other positions, so we shouldn't take a DT, which I thought was opposite. You take the DT early, because there are only a few worth drafting and then you draft one of the depth positions later and you get a player who is taken much higher most drafts (Gabriel Davis is the perfect example). Like it's potentially ok to draft a guy a round or two early, so you don't have to trade back up, and use those other picks to draft the depth players. That said, position scarcity absolutely plays into the opportunity cost of drafting a player at a position with more depth early, and is part of the value calculation.

Is it possible the value of the sixth pick goes up on draft day though? Also, there is a benefit of knowing who is available at six, and then deciding to trade down, that opportunity to have that knowledge is valuable in itself.

I know this is shocking to some, but it's possible the dolphins view Tua as a better draft prospect with a higher ceiling than any of the qbs they could have had at #3. Like if they were all coming out this year, they would have Tua rated above the guys likely available.

Absolutely, and likely the best approach is the vary the strategy based on the maturity of your development pipeline. In my example I said it takes a player 3 years to be fully developed. If you draft three developmental players a year, you will have 9 at any given time. Actually, theoretically that would work with the practice squad and bottom of the roster (with my constraint that you have to keep a developmental player for at least three years), but that prevents you from signing any developmental players as FA. My thought it likely goes in waves. One year you largely restock developmental players, then the next year focus on trading up and getting top 100 picks...and you do that all within the same draft as things unfold, it's just you need to be mindful and have a plan for both buckets, and have full faith the Bills FO most certainly does.

Totally hear ya. Was planning on ending that with agree that Beane is a total wizard and has all that stuff built out for sure, and the model will continue getting better each year with more info. Ha, my phone was on the verge of running out of battery and I was about to lose everything I wrote if I tried to add another sentence (made it with literally 30 seconds to spare).

So I hear what you're saying, and especially in this draft there is a very good chance players are misscouted and legit talent drops a lot more than usual. That said, and let's say ceilings are all equal...say something like 50% of first round draft picks bust. Then let's say 5% of 5th or lower draft picks become starters, that's a 95% bust rate (let's exclude kickers and punters and such). Even if my numbers are off a bit, the point is, it takes a lot more late round picks to equal the value of a first round pick in terms of odds. Low in the first round, the cost in salary in my mind, where that player is real close to not being in the top 51 anyway would take a ton of later round picks to make me want to take the gamble. Also, you gotta think a lot of those players will need to develop, so even if you say something crazy like 50% of people taken in late rounds develop into a starter year 4 if you let them sit on your bench. You simply don't have enough roster spots to make it work. All that said, the answer really lies in between there, and includes factors such as specific position, upcoming years positional draft depths, free agent classes, salary value ranges by position, scheme both immediate and where you see the league evolvong, etc.

I dunno about the shouldn't get credit for losing piece in the bills case for the 2019 draft...agree 100% when it comes to teams perpetually drafting at the top, but they've drafted as a playoff team three times in four seasons, and put themselves in a position to draft in the top 10 to get Oliver in 2019 through a very shrewd rebuild. Also, the 2020 first rounder ended up perfectly valued to net Diggs...if that's a top 10 pick, they're likely not getting Diggs without a trade down, and Diggs wasn't going to be available long enough to wait until closer to the draft to find a trade down partner.

I think the bills had receivers who could do that last year (again, I think), they all just got injured at the wrong time. Really I think dressing Davis was the key mistake (hindsight for sure, and not ragging on the decision), but he just couldn't cut hard enough in that game. Really all they needed was one guy to be able to flash quickly for Allen a fee times and punish the chiefs for the bracket coverages and aggressive press, and I think it's a different game in a lot of ways.

A lot of these kids start getting recruited at 13 or 14 years old, or even younger at camps and such. You very well might be right it has to do with their environment during their youth...college football programs are a huge part of that. To say college football's direct influence only starts when they walk on a campus is disingenuous. Also, are you sure a lot of these kids really even love football? I imagine a lot actually resent it and feel like they are forced into it because they have the natural talent. You read all the time that you'd be shocked how many pro players don't care at all about winning and losing, so I don't think using the mlb pitcher who just retired at 28 or a player like Aaron Maybin as examples of players feeling like they are forced to do something they don't love is a stretch. Also, look at Andrew Luck or Greg Oden. Players who got injured a lot and the constant rehab and pressure to meet expectations of their physical skill set, which does not define a human being, but sadly with highly talented players that's often all we as fans can see...those guys having significant mental health issues because they just couldn't keep meeting the unrealistic expectations of others. Shoot, look at Michael Phelps...best swimmer ever, and the lack of being viewed as anything other than his physical self caused him a ton of mental health issues. It's extremely not cool to create systems where people are only reinforced for a single aspect of their humanity so they can make billions, particularly when that aspect will be gone for many of these players by max 25 (avg nfl career is maybe 3 years), and 90% of the people that go into the system won't even start at a D1 college, let alone make the nfl.

Didn't the Bills trade up from a pick in the 20s to get up to 12? That's gotta count in the calculation no?

My guess: his primary goal is to learn the game and then go back to the UK and start an American footbal developmental program over there. Mostly, are we sure his ultimate goal is playing? Not saying he isn't trying his absolute hardest to get on the field for a regular season game, but this experience is extremely valuable for him if he wants to coach/start some type of developmental thing in Europe after his playing days are done.

Yeah, no chance bills fans suddenly go quiet though!

Yes, that looks like the most likely thing happening here 🙄 People also do a hell of a lot to get laid, and more to excert power over someone...like rape

He is significantly better than replacement level, and he's still constantly improving so you are likely going to be getting him at value because as his skill continues to improve he's going to continue being more valuable after you sign him. Punter and kicker are positions where if you have something that works, you pay a bit more so you don't need to worry about it for a decade...knock on wood, but those positions deal with far fewer injury risks, so you're more likely to have consistency and stats based on skill within random variance (bojo did get hurt in 2019 iirc, and that impacted his performance down the stretch that year...plus the crazy wind the bills played in basically every game the last half of 2019...mostly sneaking that in to say for the 100th time that that is the reason JA's deep ball accuracy was so bad in 2019).

Yup (edit: aw man, I bolded the high in high drama, but it collapsed the part I bolded, so looks like I'm just agreeing)

Will watch the video later, but Lawrence's pocket awareness concerned me a lot in the national championship game.

Isn't he still going to be super capable of being a sexual preditor when he gets out? Doesn't that type of behavior generally escalate or is there a solid chance he is able to work past it? Also, how many grams of crack equal 14 years exactly? Don't know, but at least until recently it was exactly 100 times less than the same number of years for cocaine. Think we might have some of our priorities mixed up somehow...and I'm usually very much on the rehabilitate over incarcerate side, but dude is attacking weak old ladies and raping them...aside from feeling the need for control over someone to that extent, that he is either not able to stop the drive to do that, or does not have the empathy to not do that is really scary because I have to imagine that type of stuff escalates over time.

I don't know that it could though. If you guys can get the list of just very good hofers to 20 players, you're still looking at only around 5% of the hall of fame. Also, some of those aren't recent inductees right (I understand recent is relative, and much respect if you are talking about the first 20 years or so of hall of fame and it changing after that)?