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HardyBoy

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Everything posted by HardyBoy

  1. Except this is the first act still, and likely midway through the first act...population density and air travel have changed a lot since 1957. Also, people need to stop judging this just soley on deaths. They are finding long term damage, possibly permanent, in multiple organ systems in people getting sick. The US military is banning people who were hospitalised with covid19 for life, and initially that was just being diagnosed prevented you from enlisting, but was rolled back. That's a huge policy for something likely to infect 70% of the population...there has to be a reason for that.
  2. There is a HUGE difference between basic and simple. The Bills offense is basic, but not simple, which imo is what you want. You make things complex by combining basic pieces together is creative ways. People who are hoping for a monolithic offensive system where there is no artistry or improve within a structure are confusing me. JA is going to thrive when he can be creative within a framework that he truly understands and can combine basic pieces quickly into super unique creative things on the fly at the line. I'm not sure why people are so hoping we have a simple elementary offense that puts artificial ceilings on players. You can be overly complex too though where people have to think instead of react, but usually that happens more on defense (see Rex Ryan or Al Golden at University of Miami)
  3. Do you keep the ball where you end up, or if you make it does it go back to the 25? If it goes back to the 25 I'm much more ok with it than if you can score a td, especially since you can't advance an onside kick. That said, make it the 40, since a kick has to go 10 (or 15 yards now) before it is a live ball. The only thing is that a kickoff is a live ball so you could theoretically get possession wherever on the field if the team doesn't touch it. All that said, the idea of a free hail mary that you can score on by saying "onside kick attempt" is not right.
  4. I am hoping a lot of the long ball stuff is overblown (no pun intended...you'll see). Basically every home game to end the season starting with that Eagles game was crazy crazy windy, and I'm sure that played a huge part in not reverting back to the mean at least a bit, because the start of the year was bad for sure deep ball wise. A lot of the deep shots seemed like they happened at the end of progressions last year (could be wrong here), which might be why he couldn't put as much air under the ball. This article makes me think he will be able to better recognize a saftey can't possibly get to a spot on the field, so he can throw it earlier and therefore higher so it can take longer to get to the spot.
  5. I mean yes, but you really think that wasn't in the play design the last two years? You basing this on evidence or a hunch (genuine question)? Cause I'm going with hunch:
  6. I think this has as much to do with the analytics on what is better for those individual games as it does for ensuring you get a more likely chance at as nice a schedule as possible. Not being difficult with specific needs makes it a heck of a lot more likely that you get fewer teams coming off byes, etc. Their goal is to balance all that stuff out when they build the schedule...start adding stipulations and it's such a complicated thing that you start having to play multiple teams off byes potentially to accomodate the other stuff...i mean that's an assumption, but I'll stand by it big time.
  7. Yeah, it's actually kind of crazy that the cap is tied to a single year revenue. I mean I guess it is stop gap for something like this, but you'd think they'd smooth it over over the last few years with future anticipated revenue built in too. The problem you are going to run into is cashflow though...the fans are a consistent revenue stream, especially season ticket holders. They'll get loans, but remember that whole cash to cap thing? Maybe not the worst idea after all, but assuming that included future ticket revenue anticipated in the coming season. Might be a good number of teams up for sale, because I don't care who you are, not many people have 150m in cash burning a hole in their pocket and a lot of investments are down and it might make a lot more sense to sell an nfl team at a profit than a bunch of investments at an astronomical loss...they should sell guaranteed team bonds.
  8. So to me this is part of the team building continuum when you have a qb on their rookie deal. First you sign a bunch of value free agents to one year deals to build depth. Then you turn some of those players into picks...basically turning cap space into draft capital in the early late rounds (5th and 6th rounds). Then, you use those picks initially to move up to get players that you have a significant higher value for you because of system fit or identifying an elite skill others are missing, but drop to say the third round because moneyball. Then, you stop trading up and using those picks to find high value depth (where a lot of teams are still plugging in needs for starters). You're still signing one year free agents, but that really needs to stop once you need to start signing players, but by then you have a steady stream of rookies going from year 3 to year 4, and those are basically your one year free agent deals, but now you actually get comp picks when they leave and instead of using free agents to trade for mid round capital to keep this rolling, you start trading down. Don't know if I'm right (directionally I think I'm on the right track for sure though), but by the time I got done typing that out, I'm pretty sure I was describing the Pats.
  9. So my wife had a friend from high school that booked a flight in very early March to come visit us in south Florida mid-march. If the flight had been the next day I would have said heck no, she needs to cancel, but seeing it was a bit less than three weeks away, I just let it ride and things took care of themselves in terms of people not flying. This will be the same way...lol at thinking there will be 70k screaming people in stadiums...screaming and spitting on all the people in the rows below them. I mean it's not impossible I guess, but I think setting your slim hopes on any season at all would be a better use of your time...lol and at the start of flu season where the beds are going to fill up from that already...(I know I may come across like I think this is funny, it's not, it really sucks...I have a 4 month old that I'm concerned that a lot of my family basically halfway across the country in rochester that I'm not sure when he will see them...genuinely could be years...unless we move north a ways, which is looking very likely). Wait, I'm not taking my advice and just letting it ride...yeah we'll see, hopefully they let people drink, but whatever, I don't usually drink inside sporting events too much, because it makes me miss too much of the game.
  10. Very interesting on the pensions...that is not a good sign after a ten year stock market streak to have to cut pensions I have a strong feeling we are going to be hearing about a lot more of pension cuts in the near term, and this is an organization that brings in a ton of very regular and steady profit...same cannot be said about many local municipalities and states.
  11. I'll just leave this here, cause that left hand is nasty good (the solo is pretty unreal):
  12. Maybe, but unfortunately they are seeing potential long term, maybe permanent damage outside of just the lungs. This also has the potential to damage T cells kind of like hiv does (though not permanent leading to aids). It is way, way too early to say that even a super minor case of this is no big deal, let alone a typical "mild" case that knocks you down with a 103+ fever for a week and just the craziness of all the other symptoms...we have no idea if there are long term impacts, though it really is starting to look like there are, amd how much impact those are going to have for the rest of a person's life. Plus, it's very much looking like you aren't going to have a lot of antibodies to this if you don't get really sick potentially. That means no herd immunity. Also, could mean if you only have a little bit of antibodies, you could experience Antibody Dependent Enhancement, which is where the antibodies actually make the infection a lot worse (that's why they need to be so careful with the vaccine). You flat out do not want to catch this if you can avoid it. That said, I understand the awful situation a lot of people are facing where that sounds great, but they can't put food on their family's table without working, or work in an essential role that can't be done remote, or have lost their job because of this...it's crazy, but let's not minimize the potential very significant dangers of this virus that can happen when we look outside of just survived vs dead, and more and more research is showing that this isn't just being careful of the unknown, this is a potentially very damaging virus...even if the death rate comes in sub 1% it could very well cause significant and permanent injury to many many more people (check the line from the second article below about 1 in 5 people and heart damage). T cells: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0304-7 Long term damage and not just to lungs: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241953691.html An initial study found that as many as 1 in 5 coronavirus patients who show no respiratory distress suffer cardiac damage, leading to heart failure and even death, Kaiser Health reported. Initial research suggests that coronavirus can directly infect the heart muscle, attaching to receptors in the lungs that are also found in the heart, according to the outlet.
  13. Wrong question...what 5th, 6th, 7th round picks and ufas that this regime has drafted are legit nfl players? A good number and they're really good at finding value there. I totally hear what you're saying, they're at a point where going for one premium is better than extra above avereage, but I think sustained success comes from having the middle of the roster being cheap quality depth. Building your depth through the draft by getting players who either are highly interchangeable within the various aspects of your overall scheme or have a skill that allows them to be used very specifically within a specific piece of that scheme that allows them to be almost elite because they are great at the things you are needing them to do.
  14. Ah, hadn't read all way to end of thread...basically what the poster directly above this post said: But they would upgrade the practice squad assuming different teams didn't pick them up after they got cut. This front office has been great at finding gems in later rounds and developing them. I hear you on the trade up, but they can still improve the team with those later picks, even if they end up on the practice squad. Remember, Beane views the ps as a true place for player development.
  15. Stay strong, and that means allowing yourselves to feel and express all emotions, even the ones society tells you you have to keep in to be masculine. Anyway, the Dead also said this, though I'm not quite sure if the song is about the inevitability of an outcome, or the ability to realize the path you're taking's no good and getting off of it...either way, didn't work out the best for August West: But I'll get backon my feet someday,The good Lord willingif He says I may.'cause I know the life I'mlivin's no good.I'll get a new start,live the life I should.
  16. You don't think a 5 win season would tarnish his resume more than an intentional tank where they go for a one season tire fire in order to get high enough where they could either get one of the top 2 qbs or trade for an established player? In my opinion that would increase his legacy. The goal is to win super bowls, going 2-14 instead of 6-10 would get them back there much quicker. Or they could do what the bills did for 17 years and hope to make 9-7 instead of 7-9 and sneak into the playoffs.
  17. Or he knows you need a franchise qb and has seen what finishing in the 6 to 7 win pergatory looks like close up in the afc east for 20 years and is the most calculated coach and gm in the league. Great contribution
  18. Would you be shocked if they actively tried to go 2-14?
  19. @Augie In all seriousness though...people do feel this way reading through the Diggs trade thread. It's odd given Allens huge improvement in the intermediate passing game, but people think that way for sure.
  20. Here's the thing, the quality receiving core needs a polished qb, and I watched a few games last season and Burrow seems super polished, and would be a great fit...go rewatch that GA Southern game, dude is a straight baller...5 tds! Think the Bengals would do Allen, Brown and Diggs for #1 overall and a rb? Oh and the first pick of the second round, because this is a super deep wr draft. The first pick of the second round is basically a first round pick after all.
  21. So I agree, but I don't necessarily think the Pats are going to be feeling the pain immediately...sure they might have a down year or two, but I'm talking the prolonged mediocre non-relevance both the Bills and Dolphins faced that really set in about 5 years following the departure of those coaches and players. The Bills up through the music city miracle were pretty good and very competitive. The dolphins had the Taylor and Ricky Williams era, which was really competitive. I think what happens is the culture that was around when you had the franchise qb sticks around for a bit. Then the front office flails around a bit, players leave and the culture goes downhill. Then they start taking bigger and bigger risks to get success again, and even if some succeed, enough fail and you go into a downspin that will take years to recover from and they get fired. Then you bring in a new front office regime and instead of doing what McBeane did and refusing to play the hand their dealt, folding and starting again, they try to take a hand of 2 and 7 unsuited in the small blind and bet aggressively. You can't fire a front office because they created a situation that you deem is too broken to fix quickly, and ask the next group to come in and fix it quickly. That might be the biggest quality of McBeane...the humility to not think they could fix something that everyone else failed to fix...just admit it isn't possible and start over. That's a very long way of me saying, the Pats are potentially about to go on a long downward spiral that might start out ok, but will continue to spiral down...or they are smart and blow it up before they start making bad decisions when things start going south and hit a two or three year restart button...good luck, because fan expectations are what drive so much of that, and owners are not necessarily open to being honest about a rebuild, because that would hurt attendance and such.
  22. Also, my wife owns a small business. The law that was just passed says she needs to pay up to 2 weeks of sick pay for every employee. Personally I think that having sick time for people is good, would make wages go down slightly, but you won't lose your job if your kid gets sick (sort of loke insurance). That said...a totally unplanned huge expense like that, where the government is saying don't worry, we got you covered, you can take out a 0 interest loan (that converts to 12% interest on any unpaid balance after the first year). This isn't going to just put her out of business (honestly I think it would anyway, and she is potentially going to pivot to something else), but this is going to take all the profit she was able to make over 3 years and put us into debt. Don't worry, they are going to help with social security payrol tax credits...will help all those companies that go out of business or need cash right when they start up again... Anyway, the pegulas might be trying to help people with the timing, but also heard if you did layoffs before the bill was signed you wouldn't have to pay...of course hopefully I'm wrong on above, I just know what is swirling around in the business groups she's in...she built it up to 25 employees with no start up money.
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