HardyBoy

I think you’re undervaluing Curtis Martin. He individually destroyed the bills in at least a few games over the course of his career. Man the AFC East was loaded at RB for a while in the late 90s through mid 2000s…Curtis Martin, Ricky Williams in his prime, Antwone Smith for a brief time, Travis Henry was pretty solid.

I think it’s likely someone at the top of that first depth chart. Trying to trade a starter gives you a better initial position in negotiations.

Traded before cut though right? He’s on a contract year too isn’t he? Wonder if being able to net a comp pick if they don’t resign him next offseason plays into any calculations. also, something about growth/improvement curves and how they know what their long term needs against expected skill growth and salary requirements. I am a big Phillips fan in terms of play style and think he is a super valuable chip, whose going to be playing his 2nd season after an acl tear, and you stuck with him through his down post surgery season.

Unless the agent is a key source for the pundit…

And it sounds like they hit on Spencer Brown as well from something I was watching today (Buffalo plus podcast), to at least the point that they belong on the field. With some more development and staying healthy have a strong sense they have a floor of above replacement level depth at worst. Obviously super early still, but they’re holding their own against really good competition and can only get better. To get to a solid starter level I would think that means they would need to maintain being above replacement level when teams are game planning specifically to take advantage of your weaknesses and not become a liability. With how raw both are, I’d be shocked if that was realistic to even dream about at this point, but Epenessa (sp?) came on as an argumently low level starter by the end of last year, and that was without a preseason so they might be making serious contributions by the end of the year (hopefully no need for Brown outside of the goal line though).

Oh gotcha!

I mean she built the model or uses a model to predict an outcome. It’s still her prediction, she is just using the model to help her determine the prediction. No different than someone thinking about a problem and picking using the eye test, it’s just she is using the tools available to build a standardized, repeatable and based on a defined criteria approach that I would imagine is superior to her using the eye test model. She should round that, she is expressing her model has a level of precision that I cannot possibly imagine it has based on not rounding. Not rounding 447 to 450 in a business setting implies you have an exact number and that the stakeholders can expect you have a perfect level of precision…you need to round that to 450 unless you actually are able to be that exact, otherwise you are misleading with data. Having a number out to a thousandths place in terms of precision like the example here is sort of wild.

No comment on how good she is at what she does (never seen or read anything she’s done), but yeah those should absolutely be rounded to avoid being what I would consider misleading stats. Unless she has reason to believe her predictions are truly accurate to the thousandths place.

Wait, so your argument I would imagine is he has only done it for a single season and we need a larger sample size, and that he’s no good based on a two game sample…I got that right? Not even going to mention that his receivers were injured in those games and they had no running game.

That’s really funny! I could see my four year old having that same exact reaction to a board game at some point over the next 10-30 years! It’s actually kind of funny on another level. Take a look at the background of Monopoly, and that is the exact feeling the game makers were trying to bring about, the irony is their intent was the opposite of how it is portrayed. Other than create the most boring board game ever IMO of course!

Well said, but more accurately, one really bad half of a season where he still did amazing things, then it literally clicked for him on a play where he himself says he knew exactly what was happening for the first time and the game actually slowed for him leading to a chunk play stepping up in the pocket throwing with anticipation on which he hurt his elbow. He’s been at worst alright since he came back from the injury he got against Houston his rookie year, spent a bunch of time being solidly good and then a third of his career being mvp caliber, without a running game and a defense that couldn’t get off the field before the red zone the first half of the year last year. If anyone wants to look at a good example of what an exponential growth curve looks like it’s Allen and he’s still very much at the start of what is going to be his best quality IMO, which is his intelligence and game recognition. He also had like the biggest leap in pff’s stable statistics ever (stats that say it’s sustainable) and they were mediocre in a lot of ways. That’s not a knock, that’s we are about to witness something we’ve never seen before. Also not saying Allen was lucky, his skill set makes those possible and changes the math. That said, those sideline passes to Davis in the colts game while the result of incredible skill, the degree means an inch off and it’s a different story. When his stable stats grow exponentially again though this year….oh boy and you know Beane is fully aware of what they needed to see from Allen in camp to prove I’m directionally right to have signed them to the deal. buckle up

Reading through the thread and was going to bring up % of the cap. My guess is it will be structured to take a certain percentage of the cap regardless of actual dollars and evaluated every couple of years. Think what % that is will be based on performance and would vary.

I mean sounds reasonable right? Anyone have any doubt they're going to force him to restructure next season on their terms?

The people saying Rodgers should just spout cliché talking points while he allows the front office to destroy his legacy, while at the same time attacking his greatness by saying his one super bowl win means his career is a disappointment are funny. He already lost a good three or four seasons on the front end of career waiting for Favre to retire. They played two or three seasons without an actual running back. In the deepest WR draft in recent history, they failed to draft a single wide receiver where the Bills were able to get a receiver with the physical traits and production in Gabriel Davis in the 4TH ROUND (he was not a sleeper) and they drafted nobody. Can you imagine if Rodgers had been paired with competent coaching and front offices his entire career...might be the biggest what if in the history of the league.

Mitch T took less money to have a chance to reset his career by specifically playing for the Bills. Would be incredibly short sighted to trade him even for a 1st. Think about all these types of players they will be landing over the next 10 years that would vanish with one trade.

Anymore? Humans have been dehumanizing fellow humans so they have a clean conscience doing horrible things to them for their own gain for a really, really long time. That said, I agree things are getting crazier.

If you wake up saying and truly meaning you are not going to punch and old lady today, and then you go punch an old lady because you can't stop yourself no matter how hard you try and it causes you significant impacts in your life and happiness...then yes you would absolutely be dealing with a mental health issue. Have you ever had anyone in your life deal with addiction? Addiction is a brain chemistry thing anyway. I'm sure this isn't perfectly right, but close enough: addiction happens because your brain isn't getting enough dopamine because the addictive behavior has lead to a change in the way your brain gives out dopamine and starts to release only in the presence of certain factors (specific drug, sex, etc). If your brain starts requiring more of that thing to get the same amount of dopamine released then you have a person developing a tolerance and then you get into a spiral where things can get bad quick. You really think that something that is extremely pleasurable and leads to a lot of dopamine release isn't capable of leading to serious addiction? Shoot, having 70k fans cheering when you do something on a football field releases insane amounts of dopamine as well, which is a huge reason it's so hard for people to transition out of pro sport careers, and so many get into other behaviors that lead to large dopamine releases like drinking heavily.

It can, but compulsive and destructive behavior you can't stop if you tried while knowing the potential consequences is not being a dirtbag, it's addiction.

How much variance is there in successful jukes/attempted jukes? Gotta think that's a thing people look at. How much does this stat matter year to year? Moss is also a better zone runner, and inherent in zone runs are making a cut to avoid incoming contact, how is this accounted for in the metric (schemes may impact this)?

Wait, you think tiger woods hooking up with random waffle house waitresses he just met, while married (to a super model not that it matters) with two kids, and a crap ton to lose if any of them went public is rational behavior? That seems similar to the standard on the road behavior you hear about when it comes to cheating athletes? Tiger Woods was making extremely poor and destructive choices around sex. Dude clearly had a very significant issue with compulsive sex.

We excluding the second half of game 4, cause that's just a slog to get through. Love it, but a lot of football is the tension building between plays, and tough to get that in the last two quarters of the preseason. Plus the announcing can be the other teams homer announcers (or our own) who likely are just trying to make it to the end.

Guy wearing a Pats shirt walking in the grocery store, me coming out...dropped a perfectly timed Go Bills! He laughed, but he looked shook cause for the first time in a generation he had no comeback! Edit: love, love, love the stories of saying Go Bills! to fellow Bills fans. However, I'm especially interested in things where you basically lightly trolled someone, like how some dude was just waking in a parking lot with his Pats shirt having a perfectly bland day, and I just Go Bills'd him out of nowhere. Even though he smiled and laughed you could tell he was resigned to the overall McBeane experience and he knew the tables have turned with Josh Allen. Nobody get beat up or hurt though please.

I can't believe I'm saying this, and I don't think it's funny, but it's the correct use of the term so...that's an interesting twist on survivor bias

So the consistent look of surprise when my 18 month old sees something for the first time says please stop. Also, the converse being true (which i agree with you in a non-literal sense) does not make the original true. Gotta go contrapositive for that if I am remembering my 10th grade math. That specific saying needs to be in a certain order for it to be what he was saying. It's like if he said "When pigs fly, I'll believe pigs can fly" and you saying he said the same thing. He was trying to reference a common saying, he got it backwards...you know who wouldn't have gotten that backwards...Josh Allen...except I could totally see him start saying that now to mess with mahomes!

Watched it, well said! The thing that has me most excited is that JA might have overachieved last year and was a bit lucky in a way (assuming his size and arm strength don't contribute to his luck). His pff stable stats were lower than his final output. His stable stats also improved both from his floor in 2018, and from year two, in year three (like historically so). Compared to his ceiling there is a legit chance he has the same % improvement this year as last year, if not higher. As the guy said, JAs biggest asset is his brain, and he's far from his ceiling there and he's already crushing it with the mental game already. Imagine when he is viewed as Brady or Manning in terms of you can't blitz him because he can find the weak spot for a positive play every time. What is going to really set him in that level is not only will he be waiting on the blitz, but him and Diggs have been baiting your corner the last three quarters and the last three games of tape waiting for a specific moment to burn you with a double move. A more that they have been diabolically and lethally devising because, the thing that drives it all: cut throat competitive.