HardyBoy

Johnson isn’t going to get in Rousseau’s ear right before the biggest play of the season and tell him what counter to use that he was helping GR set up all game. Addison’s experience and what sounds like his ability and definitely his willingness to convey that experience to others is a huge asset and adds to his value. They just invested a huge amount of assets in young DEs. Five years from now when they are all hopefully playing on their second contracts, I would have to imagine they will all credit the mentorship that Addison offered this season as key reasons they learned to do it the right way, and they will subsequently pass that along to the next batch of DE prospects one day. These guys have never had to go through the game planning other teams will be doing to exploit their weaknesses, they need a calm guiding voice in the locker room that have had success and also have gone through the ups and downs of a season. Hughs and Addison have and they both play differently and can offer different advice to each player.

It’s more I think they will design plays that fit the skill set of whoever is in there and I don’t think the 6th receiver on this team will be used as a decoy. Also, Kumero isn’t even a wide receiver in their minds potentially. He could be a special teams specialist who also plays receiver well enough to get a set of plays game planned around him. A lot easier to set up some film for a defender to get super confident on a route and set him up for a counter in a super key spot with a guy playing 6 snaps a game vs 50 a game or whatever. I don’t know that Kumero isn’t a high ceiling guy either. His route running reminds me a bit of Stevie Johnson maybe. What I mean by that is he uses positioning extremely well to get in a box out position on his defender. The suddenness with which he attacks his cuts allows him to use his arms and his hip to initiate sneaky contact and basically boxes out his defender so he is a lot more open then it looks initially and he’s fast so he is open enough to catch and fall on the break, but also can separate if the route has another window in the next level. Stevenson for sure has a bunch of upside, as does Hodgins, but I think they will figure out ways to make sure both are on the initial roster to avoid going through waivers and then figure out a way to keep them. They don’t have the luxury at receiver to make decisions for this year only. Neither Sanders, Beasley or McKenzie are going to play out Allen’s contract, but those guys, and potentially even Kumero do, and shouldn’t be crazy expensive to resign.

He would come in a sub for whoever he backs up for a certain number of snaps a game. He’d be the primary receiver on plays where he is in the game and the play call calls for that receiver to be the primary option. I don’t think they would call different plays because he was in the game, so he’ll get his shot. Gotta remember the other players are not at the same position and they aren’t going to not let his routes be primary when he subs in ever, otherwise they would know he’s basically in as a decoy while Diggs or Davis catch a breather in their outside receiver position. That said they’ll play different formations to get those guys breathers too, so probably will be more of a matchup thing when he gets in, but he will play and he won’t be hidden as a non option/last option every play.

I mean this is a troll thread…it has to be a troll thread. You guys have no idea what they were working on in the kicking game, they might have asked him to do stuff to test the gunners. Nobody has any clue, it’s preseason.

Agree, but the IR and practice squad rules the last two years make it a lot easier to keep players available, but let them actually recoup more from injuries. Beane and McD love to give rookies a break early or middle of the season and then have them peaking again when they start figuring out the mental part the last quarter of the season. They seem to have workloads pretty well organized across a season where players get chunks where they are less critical in the game plans as a way to manage snaps and workloads in a way I have not seen an nfl team do in the past (doesn’t mean it never happened).

My guess is they have looked at the data (though not sure there is really a large enough sample size) and they are acting accordingly, possibly even player by player. Could explain why Oliver was playing for example.

You should check out the Beane interview on the Pat Mcafee show. He said something similar there too, and was super interesting. He talked about golfing with Allen in that interview as well.

Yeah, his delivery is hilarious and him and the dude he writes the stuff with are hilarious. I know there are some people on here that don’t like Dan Le Batard, but that radio show really was the first to go as a parody of sports radio, though I’d listen to Dan Patrick as an argument, but I’d say he dabbled in it. Irony is that the Le Batard Show probably does the best actual sports talk those times when they do actually dive into it, which they do during football season, between the parody. I think people need to be ready for how much praise Dan in particular is going to be giving Josh Allen and the Bills in general. After JA signed the contract he said that his opinion of Josh Allen as a prospect was literally the most wrong he’s ever been. This is a guy who genuinely predicted the lions would be a playoff team the year they finished 0-16. I so so so cannot wait for JA to go on that show, and Beane too hopefully, assuming they didn’t burn the bridge too much with the negativity. Le Batard also gave Pat Mcafee a platform when he was just breaking in and I’m sure behind the scenes helped get him some connections and he helped Chris Simms in a big way when we was trying to break in.

He was the guy who took over the interim head coach role when Philbin was fired in Miami. Played as a TE in the league I believe. He’s basically the personification of the meat head football guy, exaggerated 100x. He’s a real life parody, but at the same time might resonate with some, we’ll see. There were definitely people at the time that wanted to have him be the guy. Instead I think they went with Gase. Campbell reminds me a bit of Rex Ryan in terms of style in a way, but back when Rex gave a lot of effort. Not my preference, but I could see it working culture wise with the right group of players. His pressers are sound bite heaven though.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_career.htm This is decently crazy. There have been just over 200 players who have ever rushed for at least 4,000 career yards in the nfl. Edge James ran for over 10k yards in 10 seasons, which is pretty wild looking at that chart. He did that as part of arguably the leagues best passing offense ever.

I think you’re undervaluing Curtis Martin. He individually destroyed the bills in at least a few games over the course of his career. Man the AFC East was loaded at RB for a while in the late 90s through mid 2000s…Curtis Martin, Ricky Williams in his prime, Antwone Smith for a brief time, Travis Henry was pretty solid.

I think it’s likely someone at the top of that first depth chart. Trying to trade a starter gives you a better initial position in negotiations.

Traded before cut though right? He’s on a contract year too isn’t he? Wonder if being able to net a comp pick if they don’t resign him next offseason plays into any calculations. also, something about growth/improvement curves and how they know what their long term needs against expected skill growth and salary requirements. I am a big Phillips fan in terms of play style and think he is a super valuable chip, whose going to be playing his 2nd season after an acl tear, and you stuck with him through his down post surgery season.

Unless the agent is a key source for the pundit…

And it sounds like they hit on Spencer Brown as well from something I was watching today (Buffalo plus podcast), to at least the point that they belong on the field. With some more development and staying healthy have a strong sense they have a floor of above replacement level depth at worst. Obviously super early still, but they’re holding their own against really good competition and can only get better. To get to a solid starter level I would think that means they would need to maintain being above replacement level when teams are game planning specifically to take advantage of your weaknesses and not become a liability. With how raw both are, I’d be shocked if that was realistic to even dream about at this point, but Epenessa (sp?) came on as an argumently low level starter by the end of last year, and that was without a preseason so they might be making serious contributions by the end of the year (hopefully no need for Brown outside of the goal line though).

Oh gotcha!

I mean she built the model or uses a model to predict an outcome. It’s still her prediction, she is just using the model to help her determine the prediction. No different than someone thinking about a problem and picking using the eye test, it’s just she is using the tools available to build a standardized, repeatable and based on a defined criteria approach that I would imagine is superior to her using the eye test model. She should round that, she is expressing her model has a level of precision that I cannot possibly imagine it has based on not rounding. Not rounding 447 to 450 in a business setting implies you have an exact number and that the stakeholders can expect you have a perfect level of precision…you need to round that to 450 unless you actually are able to be that exact, otherwise you are misleading with data. Having a number out to a thousandths place in terms of precision like the example here is sort of wild.

No comment on how good she is at what she does (never seen or read anything she’s done), but yeah those should absolutely be rounded to avoid being what I would consider misleading stats. Unless she has reason to believe her predictions are truly accurate to the thousandths place.

Wait, so your argument I would imagine is he has only done it for a single season and we need a larger sample size, and that he’s no good based on a two game sample…I got that right? Not even going to mention that his receivers were injured in those games and they had no running game.

That’s really funny! I could see my four year old having that same exact reaction to a board game at some point over the next 10-30 years! It’s actually kind of funny on another level. Take a look at the background of Monopoly, and that is the exact feeling the game makers were trying to bring about, the irony is their intent was the opposite of how it is portrayed. Other than create the most boring board game ever IMO of course!

Well said, but more accurately, one really bad half of a season where he still did amazing things, then it literally clicked for him on a play where he himself says he knew exactly what was happening for the first time and the game actually slowed for him leading to a chunk play stepping up in the pocket throwing with anticipation on which he hurt his elbow. He’s been at worst alright since he came back from the injury he got against Houston his rookie year, spent a bunch of time being solidly good and then a third of his career being mvp caliber, without a running game and a defense that couldn’t get off the field before the red zone the first half of the year last year. If anyone wants to look at a good example of what an exponential growth curve looks like it’s Allen and he’s still very much at the start of what is going to be his best quality IMO, which is his intelligence and game recognition. He also had like the biggest leap in pff’s stable statistics ever (stats that say it’s sustainable) and they were mediocre in a lot of ways. That’s not a knock, that’s we are about to witness something we’ve never seen before. Also not saying Allen was lucky, his skill set makes those possible and changes the math. That said, those sideline passes to Davis in the colts game while the result of incredible skill, the degree means an inch off and it’s a different story. When his stable stats grow exponentially again though this year….oh boy and you know Beane is fully aware of what they needed to see from Allen in camp to prove I’m directionally right to have signed them to the deal. buckle up

Reading through the thread and was going to bring up % of the cap. My guess is it will be structured to take a certain percentage of the cap regardless of actual dollars and evaluated every couple of years. Think what % that is will be based on performance and would vary.

I mean sounds reasonable right? Anyone have any doubt they're going to force him to restructure next season on their terms?

The people saying Rodgers should just spout cliché talking points while he allows the front office to destroy his legacy, while at the same time attacking his greatness by saying his one super bowl win means his career is a disappointment are funny. He already lost a good three or four seasons on the front end of career waiting for Favre to retire. They played two or three seasons without an actual running back. In the deepest WR draft in recent history, they failed to draft a single wide receiver where the Bills were able to get a receiver with the physical traits and production in Gabriel Davis in the 4TH ROUND (he was not a sleeper) and they drafted nobody. Can you imagine if Rodgers had been paired with competent coaching and front offices his entire career...might be the biggest what if in the history of the league.

Mitch T took less money to have a chance to reset his career by specifically playing for the Bills. Would be incredibly short sighted to trade him even for a 1st. Think about all these types of players they will be landing over the next 10 years that would vanish with one trade.