If we beat the Bengals, we’re winning the AFC

[eball]

We will be favorites in all of our remaining games -- yes, even at the Pats***.  We need to get just a bit healthier and have some good luck (i.e., no new injuries) going forward.  I expect Dawkins and Kincaid to return this week -- Kincaid was apparently close to returning yesterday, and Dion should clear the protocol early this week.

 

The defense, despite all of the injuries, has gotten better; they are now at least an average squad, which *should* be good enough with Allen leading our offense.

 

I am admittedly concerned about the slow starts.  Allen himself said he needs to find ways to start faster and I trust him to do that.  A pissed off Josh is a dangerous Josh, and McD and Brady should do everything they can leading up to these games to make him feel disrespected.

 

None of the teams currently above Buffalo in the standings have looked like world beaters...it is truly a wide open race and I like our horses.

 

[Gregg]

7 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Right on man! I'm with you. Go Giants and Go Jax Dart! I think the Giants D front will have success getting to Maye or at least disrupting him. Giants win. Then we beat Cincy and now we will be one game out heading into Foxboro. The Division is ours boys.

 

I think we will need them to drop another one. The Bills loss to Miami hurt as the Pats have the tiebreaker over them.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

We could win out, the Patriots could lose one to us, and the colds could lose just one more putting us all at 13 and 4. We would be the five seed. This is the most likely happenstance in my opinion. 

Not that betting odds ultimately mean anything but if we all finish 13-4 I think we’d be a road favorite over the entire playoff field which would be very interesting lol  

[Alphadawg7]

Super stoked we won - but taking off homer glasses and being unbiased, the team I watched play on Sunday didn't look like a team that can win out.  2 things happened that game that are pretty hard for me to come away feeling confident about on a weekly basis.

1. How the offense produced - The offense greatly benefited from the Steelers offense being so bad and not capitalizing on all our mistakes and turnovers.  But the more concerning thing for me was that the only way we could move the ball effectively was to keep running the same run play over and over again. Even TJ Watt said he had never seen anything like that where a team kept running the same play and they couldn't adjust or stop it.  The rest of the offense was pretty bad again outside the success we kept having running the same runs over and over again.  So I did not come away from this game feeling better about the offense personally.  I still have a lot of concerns about Brady, I mean the first half was atrocious again, we were just lucky Steelers couldn't capitalize more.  
2. Our defense was dominant - great to see, but nothing about this defense overall this year makes me feel like what we saw on Sunday is something they can expect week in and week out.  I hope they do, but after the season the defense has had, I can't just suddenly expect to see this kind of performance week to week and against better teams.  So for me, I need to see the defense string together a series of games before I start buying maybe its figured something out.

A win is a win, so very happy we beat the Steelers.  But I would be lying if that game boosted my confidence back up.  I hope they build on it for sure, but I didn't leave that game feeling like we turned a corner and about to go on a tear.  We very well might, not saying we can't as we have done it before, but just saying how I felt after watching that game and what this team has looked like the past 8 weeks that resulted in a 4-4 record.  

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Super stoked we won - but taking off homer glasses and being unbiased, the team I watched play on Sunday didn't look like a team that can win out.  2 things happened that game that are pretty hard for me to come away feeling confident about on a weekly basis.

1. How the offense produced - The offense greatly benefited from the Steelers offense being so bad and not capitalizing on all our mistakes and turnovers.  But the more concerning thing for me was that the only way we could move the ball effectively was to keep running the same run play over and over again. Even TJ Watt said he had never seen anything like that where a team kept running the same play and they couldn't adjust or stop it.  The rest of the offense was pretty bad again outside the success we kept having running the same runs over and over again.  So I did not come away from this game feeling better about the offense personally.  I still have a lot of concerns about Brady, I mean the first half was atrocious again, we were just lucky Steelers couldn't capitalize more.  
2. Our defense was dominant - great to see, but nothing about this defense overall this year makes me feel like what we saw on Sunday is something they can expect week in and week out.  I hope they do, but after the season the defense has had, I can't just suddenly expect to see this kind of performance week to week and against better teams.  So for me, I need to see the defense string together a series of games before I start buying maybe its figured something out.

A win is a win, so very happy we beat the Steelers.  But I would be lying if that game boosted my confidence back up.  I hope they build on it for sure, but I didn't leave that game feeling like we turned a corner and about to go on a tear.  We very well might, not saying we can't as we have done it before, but just saying how I felt after watching that game and what this team has looked like the past 8 weeks that resulted in a 4-4 record.  

if....big IF... we can get our ends back like we need by the playoffs & Ed can come back for at least the AFCC that will really help. the road to the playoffs will go through a few teams that would need him but ultimately start with at Baltimore or at Jacksonville. There's a big hill to climb to get out of the #5 seed.

 

If we can get those cylinders firing on defense, continue to use good rotations with the CB's and safeties we may be able to shore things up. Damar Hamlin could be elevated, as well. I know that scares a lot of people but he is consistent even if below average to the hopes and dreams of all those here.

Edited 1 hour ago by boyst

[Psautcsk]

16 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Right on man! I'm with you. Go Giants and Go Jax Dart! I think the Giants D front will have success getting to Maye or at least disrupting him. Giants win. Then we beat Cincy and now we will be one game out heading into Foxboro. The Division is ours boys.

Too bad Thibodeaux is out for the Giants

[Dillenger4]

4 minutes ago, Psautcsk said:

Too bad Thibodeaux is out for the Giants

True but he's actually not having a great year. Their line is still very good! Abdul Carter, Sexy Dexy and Burns can create havoc vs the Pats who are missing two starters on their O line. We shall see.

[Psautcsk]

1 minute ago, Dillenger4 said:

True but he's actually not having a great year. Their line is still very good! Abdul Carter, Sexy Dexy and Burns can create havoc vs the Pats who are missing two starters on their O line. We shall see.

I don't think it will be a difference maker but hope I am wrong.

[HappyDays]

My biggest source of optimism is that KC is likely to miss the playoffs. They're the only team in the entire NFL that I'm not sure we can beat in January. The rest of the AFC I'm not going to say I'm confident we can win 3 in a row on the road, but it's our best chance for sure. Whoever we face in the Super Bowl would scare me a lot more than anyone in the AFC but just get to the game and it's a 50/50 shot at that point.

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, boyst said:

if....big IF... we can get our ends back like we need by the playoffs & Ed can come back for at least the AFCC that will really help. the road to the playoffs will go through a few teams that would need him but ultimately start with at Baltimore or at Jacksonville. There's a big hill to climb to get out of the #5 seed.

 

If we can get those cylinders firing on defense, continue to use good rotations with the CB's and safeties we may be able to shore things up. Damar Hamlin could be elevated, as well. I know that scares a lot of people but he is consistent even if below average to the hopes and dreams of all those here.

 

Yeah, I am not saying we can't - and I certainly hope we do.  But this is more about my confidence in if we will.  I have in the past seen things out of this team after mid season slumps to where I have gone on the record with a thread predicting we would win out, and we did every single time.  This year though, something is off with this team. 

 

Just feels like there is less fire and fight in this team than years past.  Allen seems off still - he looks less decisive, slower to evade and escape, less explosive with his legs, etc.  The team was completely anemic the first half of football, I was at the point of ready to clean house at half time, especially with how defeated McD sounded being interviewed as he left for half time.

 

As far as injuries go, I agree if we get some of those guys back we could see a boost.  But, at the same time, many of the issues were there when those guys were not hurt too.  I also think our biggest loss was Hoecht who is out for the season.  And will the coaching staff have the balls to play the guys playing better when everyone is healthy, like Shaq for example at LB.  

 

Rooting for a win out and strong playoff run for sure -I just lack the high confidence this year that I have had in previous seasons at key turning points.  Now we go out and look good and beat the Bengals I will start feeling a little better about it.  

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

My biggest source of optimism is that KC is likely to miss the playoffs. They're the only team in the entire NFL that I'm not sure we can beat in January. The rest of the AFC I'm not going to say I'm confident we can win 3 in a row on the road, but it's our best chance for sure. Whoever we face in the Super Bowl would scare me a lot more than anyone in the AFC but just get to the game and it's a 50/50 shot at that point.

the objectively correct answer.

 

I like our chances vs anyone else in the AFC. If we fall short, so be it. 

 

I hate our chances vs KC. Any matchup vs them is an L. Even if we did the unthinkable and beat KC in the divisional round, the team would feel like they won the Superbowl and probably get boat raced the next week. 

Edited 1 hour ago by FireChans

[Dan]

2 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know this is kind of a “hear me out” or LAM post, and I know that objectively we only have about a 4% chance right now. I also admit I’m a bit of a homer, but I still think this is rational enough.

 

I think the Bengals are the toughest game left on the schedule. If we win that one, we have a good chance to win out. I know most of you think this team is flawed and that McD is a bad coach, but we actually have a good regular-season track record with him, and we’re traditionally great in December. Oh, and we are NOT losing twice to the Pats* this year.

 

And if we do win out, only the following things need to happen for us to get the 1-seed:

 

Patriots lose one more divisional game (@ Jets, vs. Dolphins) or both of their other games (vs. Giants, @ Ravens). This is not impossible at all. I know they’re good, but nobody wins every game. I’d bet they drop one of those divisional matchups.

 

Broncos lose two more divisional games — @ Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, @ Chiefs, vs. Chargers. It is pretty likely this will happen. They’re winning too many close games, and that’s a tough schedule.

 

Colts, Chargers, Jaguars each lose one game. That’s basically guaranteed.

 

So in my mind, we really only need two things: beat the Bengals, and then hope either the Dolphins or Jets can pull off a divisional win.

 

If it fails, then I’m back to my original expectation: we’ll be playing a wild card game @ Ravens.

 

Edit: As @ColoradoBills pointed out, Broncos need to lose 2 divisional games. Which makes it more complicated than I thought. Still pretty realistic.

I wanted to hear you out… but had to stop right there.  The Bengals are absolutely NOT the toughest game left on the schedule.   It will be a tough game, mostly

because we get them after a 10day rest which gives Burrow more time to get back in a rhythm. 
 

But the Patriots are absolutely a better team than the Bengals… AND we get them after their bye week!  And in Foxboro.  The schedule makers did us no favors with this little stretch!

 

Oh yeah.. and we get to play the Eagles still.    
 

so… sorry.. I stopped reading your post at the start of the 2nd paragraph.  Any conclusions drawn on the assumptions that next week is the toughest team/game we have left are flawed conclusions. 

[HOUSE]

For every crazy plan my wife makes its always followed by "here me out"

I never listen...

[SoCal Deek]

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Heck no! 

[2003Contenders]

As we have seen all season -- and it is conventional wisdom that has always made sense -- win the turnover battle, and you usually win the game.

 

Part of why the team won so many games last season is that the offense very rarely turned the ball over. This year it has been a different story. Some of what has happened this year has been "regression to the mean", but there is no denying that the team has been very sloppy this year regarding turnovers. The Bills have turned the ball over multiple times in all of their losses. They also turned it over multiple times against the Bucs and Steelers -- but the defense stepped up in both of those games to limit the damage (and create turnovers of their own).

 

If they can avoid those costly turnovers (and force some of their own), they could absolutely run the table, provided they are reasonably healthy. That is a big caveat, I know.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

For every crazy plan my wife makes its always followed by "here me out"

I never listen...

 

I bet all her plans cost you money.

[DapperCam]

Would be something if we end up 13-4 and tied with the Pats but still end up the first wildcard due to tie breakers and the AFC North division winner is 9-8

[Aussie Joe]

This team is not winning out … 

 

having said that … I’m hoping there isn’t anything riding on that last game, that they will be able to rest everyone up in  and head into the playoffs as fresh as possible …

 

in 2023 when they were fighting for their lives for 6 weeks … they were banged up  and ran out of bodies 

Edited 50 minutes ago by Aussie Joe

[Haslett_Stomp]

The Pats*** usually lose 1 game per season against the Dolphins.  That would help.

[WNYFAN1]

1 hour ago, eball said:

We will be favorites in all of our remaining games -- yes, even at the Pats***.  We need to get just a bit healthier and have some good luck (i.e., no new injuries) going forward.  I expect Dawkins and Kincaid to return this week -- Kincaid was apparently close to returning yesterday, and Dion should clear the protocol early this week.

 

The defense, despite all of the injuries, has gotten better; they are now at least an average squad, which *should* be good enough with Allen leading our offense.

 

I am admittedly concerned about the slow starts.  Allen himself said he needs to find ways to start faster and I trust him to do that.  A pissed off Josh is a dangerous Josh, and McD and Brady should do everything they can leading up to these games to make him feel disrespected.

 

None of the teams currently above Buffalo in the standings have looked like world beaters...it is truly a wide open race and I like our horses.

 

Pretty hard to make the reigning MVP feel "disrespected"...