Bills don't "need" a WR, they need to use the ones they have better

[sven233]

While I don't disagree that there is still some meat on the bone with the WRs we have  as shown in this clip, that doesn't change the overall need to add a stud to the WR corps.  If you look at enough tape, there are plays like this that come up where a WR does come wide open and Allen doesn't throw them the ball.  But there are also more plays on tape with the WRs being completely suffocated with no breathing room.

 

The problem is, there are so many of the plays where the WRs are completely covered, that Allen is having a tough time trusting that the WRs ever come open and he rushes his reads to make sure he gets to the TEs because he has more confidence in the group.  It's about trust and who's earned it and this WR group just hasn't been trustworthy enough to get open on a regular basis for Allen and therefore there will be these opportunities once in a great while that are missed.

 

But that's just a small part of the bigger picture.  The thing is, we can win games with the WRs we have.  That's been proven.  You can get away with beating any NFL team during the regular season with the WRs we have.  The problem that you are going to run into is what happens come January and you are facing the best teams with the best defenses with a Championship on the line.  We all know the preparation, the focus, the attention to detail, the physicality, the game plan, etc. are all ratcheted up a notch and that's where inferior personnel will be exposed.  The margins are so slim in the Playoffs.  So, the question becomes when it's 4th and 4 with the game on the line in the Playoffs, who is Allen going to trust to get open off the line?  It isn't going to be the WRs we have as of this moment.

 

So, that's why there is such a call to get a DUDE on this team again.  When Diggs was here, especially the first couple years, Allen trusted him to make a play when it mattered and, for the most part, they connected.  Now, on the back part of his time here, I think that trust faded a bit after Diggs started to drop the ball or whatever, but when the connection was in its prime, it was snap, drop back, fire to Diggs in this big situations. 

 

We just don't have that guy now that Allen trusts.  Can Palmer become that guy once he's back by the end of the year?  Maybe.  But that connection hasn't been there all year until the first part of the Falcons game where he got hurt.  We'll have to see if they were onto something or if it was just a fluke when he's back.  But yeah.....we need our STUD that Allen can count on in pressure situations with the game on the line.  However, with the limited cap space we have, and teams unwilling to part with those types of guys, our best bet is to find that guy, on a cost controlled contract, in the draft.  But Beane hasn't shown the ability to identify that guy in the draft yet.  He literally drafted Coleman, a slow plodding WR that couldn't separate in college to be that guy at the top of the 2nd round.  Couldn't get open in college.  Can't get open in the NFL with consistency.  Allen has tried forcing him the ball to get him going and it hasn't worked.  His targets have seen a decline in recent weeks because of it and the fact Allen can't trust him in those key situations. 

 

It's time to take some premium assets and invest them on great prospects and upgrade the room with some top talent on cost controlled contracts.  But Beane needs to admit he was wrong about the group he put together and be willing to change it all while being much better in identifying top WR talent.  We'll see what happens in the off season with that.  In the meantime, we have to hope Allen and one of the WRs on the current roster find some sort of chemistry and trust before the Playoffs start.

Edited 2 hours ago by sven233

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Palmer was starting to come on in that Falcons game and then got hurt...excited to see if that continues once he is back.

I had to look it up….Palmer caught 5 passes in Week One, and since then the most he’s had is TWO. Now come on! 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Elijah Moore averaged 60 receptions for the last two seasons with QB’s in Cleveland.  For him not to have really any production here is weird.  
 

He gets open.  He has speed.  He has good hands.

 

I think Brady overthinks and doesn’t take the obvious.
 

Palmer and Moore should have good production in this offense.  

 

He was even decent with the Jets when they started using him... I mean the guy has had revolving trashcans at QB his whole career and the least production is with Allen?? 

 

Makes no sense.

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I had to look it up….Palmer caught 5 passes in Week One, and since then the most he’s had is TWO. Now come on! 

 

He got hurt early in the 2nd quarter against the Falcons. He caught a 40 yard bomb on the first play of the game and then caught a nice 20ish yard pass for a first down where he got pulled backwards on the tackle and hurt his knee...

 

Clearly they had a plan to use him more in that game and I'm thinking he will have his usage ramp up.

[wjag]

The Bills don't have a deep threat, because they don't want one.  That's my opinion.  Their game has evolved to running the ball and quick hits, high percentage passes.  They want to play a ball control, clock eating game.  Deep throws risk turnovers.  I hope they bring throws to RBs back in to the office.  Can't figure out why they have abandoned them.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Elijah Moore averaged 60 receptions for the last two seasons with QB’s in Cleveland.  For him not to have really any production here is weird.  
 

He gets open.  He has speed.  He has good hands.

 

I think Brady overthinks and doesn’t take the obvious.
 

Palmer and Moore should have good production in this offense.  

I agree with all of this.
 

At the same time, not one of those guys belongs at the spot where they are on the depth chart. The Bills have a starting caliber slot receiver. He is probably a top 5-10 slot in the league. Put him aside for this conversation. They then have 2 guys that would be low end 2’s on the outside or decent 3’s (excluding slot) in Palmer/Moore. Coleman should slot in behind those 2. Samuel is a gadget guy. Shavers is ST. So they are missing AT LEAST a number 1 (and you could argue a number 2). They need either a number 2 or an elite field stretcher. 
 

I threw out a hypothetical trade this morning that I think I like. Torrence & a 2nd or 3rd for Tee Higgins. You can’t pay Torrence what it will take. Invest that money into retaining Edwards & McGovern. Play Anderson or another young guy at RG.
 

Humor me and let’s pretend the Bills do this. In 2026 the room would look something like Higgins-Palmer - Shakir as the starters. I’d have Moore/speed guy that can return kicks drafted in the mid rounds behind them. Coleman as a backup inside and outside. You can dump Samuel and use Moore to fill the gadget role. That room is infinitely better than this. 
 

The Bills can get more out of the WRs than they have. They have, unequivocally, a bottom 3 WR room in the league. Both statements are true.

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, milfandcookies said:

Never shoulda gotten rid of Diggs that was dumb 

 

Diggs was not being utilized the last half of the year, plus he never shows up against KC in the playoffs.  He also got rid of himself.

Edited 1 hour ago by Big Turk

[Alphadawg7]

36 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

More and more what I am starting to believe is this team has enough at the WR spot and is just misusing them.

 

There is no way you can tell me all of the following players under Brady who have shown the ability to get deep and make plays downfield before and after they have been here just suddenly forgot how to play WR and do that here:

 

• Stefon Diggs (had a phenomenal start to season under Dorsey with multiple 100+ yard games then went mostly silent under Brady)
• MVS (couldn't utilize his deep speed or chose not to then goes to NO after being cut and has multiple weeks in a row I am watching in game updates of him catching 50+ yard TD passes)
• Elijah Moore (always productive even with revolving trashcans throwing to him over his career, 4.3 speed, open a LOT in this offense downfield)
• Josh Palmer (saw plenty of highlights with Herbert targeting and connecting on deep balls with him)
• Gabe Davis (one of the best deep ball WR's in the NFL)

 

Probably some others...

 

Some of this is intentional as Brady prioritizes ball-control, clock-control offense where you take layups over and over again, minimize TOs, run the ball down the other teams throats and then rely on a handful of Allen plays a game to usually win comfortably. 

 

I believe this is also intentional on the way McD wants to play because it limits our TOs, we are super efficient at scoring points and TDs, it limits the opponent possessions meaning they have to score more efficiently than they typically do to keep up and we also are good at taking the ball away many times which further limits their possessions. 

 

All that is good and makes logical sense. But this STILL doesn't excuse the complete ignoring all too often of using what you have to attack the intermediate areas of the field to throw a barrage of short passes. 

 

Take this example in the Chiefs game: 

 

Moore is WIDE OPEN in the deep middle and if Allen hits him in stride it's at least another 5-10 yards on top of that.  What happens? He checks it down to Hawes, who is equally open, but the pass goes awry and it's incomplete...and it's not this one example I am harping on to be clear...Allen was awesome in the Chiefs game. It's the Bills intentionally choose not to make themselves more versatile too often when they don't need to, almost as if they take pride in telling the D "here is what we are going to do, now come and stop us." Most times they can't, but sometimes they can and I don't think they have properly developed their answer to when that happens in critical moments and they are far too slow to shift to it when it DOES happen in those moments. 

 

My thoughts are that Moore needs to be playing a bigger role in this offense and Coleman needs to be playing a lesser one. Palmer needs to be getting some of these type of routes (which, to be fair, he started to in the ATL game before getting hurt). Currently it seems the only person they use on these outside of Moore every so often, is Kincaid, which is great, but it's like c'mon...let's open it up a little here when we need to.  I mean even Samuel showed he has the ability in the Broncos playoff game where he took a deep over to the house and smoke DPOY Surtain...

 

Maybe they are saving it for the playoffs when they need it, but IMO at this point, I think it's mismanaging who they ALREADY HAVE at WR more than them needing another WR that is the bigger problem.

 

Bills seemingly favoring the bigger WRs that help them in run blocking and trying to prevent giving "tells" to the other team that we are passing by bringing in Moore and Samuel instead of Coleman and Shavers but at some point you have to be willing to give up a little in what you do amazingly well to add to the passing game.

 

 

I have been saying for weeks they need to identify one of Samuel or Moore (preferrably Moore) to focus on getting involved as a receiving threat.  He has the speed and downfield ability, they need to use at least one of them more than they do now, and splitting time between the 2 is not how Allen and them will build chemistry and timing.  So push one more, and I think it should be Moore, and we need to start making an effort to prioritize getting him involved as a receiver and further down field instead of all the short stuff they do with both of them.  

 

Another thing is Allen needs to have better pocket presence than he had during some of the rough patches too so he can see and take the opportunities that are there.  For example in addition to the one you showed, Samuel was also wide open on the final pass in the NE loss where Allen dropped back into what would have been a clean pocket, and had he stood in the pocket he has Samuel for an easy TD or at least near TD.  Instead, he gets happy feet despite one of the cleanest pockets of the night and bails and ends up making a scramble drill throw to Shakir that falls incomplete.  Now, there was blatant PI against Shakir that wasn't called, so it should have been a first down still, but the point is, Samuel was open deep for an easy throw but Allen just missed the opportunity.

 

I love Allen as much or more than most people, but there have been stretches this year where we have left a lot out on the field with guys open down field.  Every time Allen doesn't throw down field or scrambles for time, the first assumption is "no one was open" but when you go back and look at the film, you will see plenty of downfield opportunities that were not seen or not taken that were there.  

 

Part of the problem though IS Brady in that regard.  I don't know how many press conferences and interviews other people watch, but I watch almost all of them.  And if you listen to Brady, Allen, other guys on the offense, etc you will hear that a big part of this offense is running clear outs to scheme certain guys open on a specific play and then if that read isn't there they move to the check downs.  This keeps Allen IMHO from seeing things in other parts of the field, because they are not part of his initial progressions and then looks to either extend the play in scramble drill, run, or take a check down.  

 

I still want to get a legit WR1 on the outside, dont get me wrong.  But there are quite a bit more opportunities than people believe out there in downfield passing game than we are actually taking. 

 

Brady clearly without question came in and knew that Allens weakest part of his game was the deep ball accuracy, and he wasn't wrong.  He too often either puts the ball in a place that prevents advancing it when the runner has a clear path for a big gain or score, or he misses on the throw or commits a turnover.  And Brady isn't wrong - BUT - IMHO, he also OVER corrected.  Rather than reducing the reliance on that, he has more taken it out almost entirely.  And the numbers don't lie, its been the best offense in Bills history statistically and consistently amongst the top 3 in the NFL.  However, this year, he has also seen teams defend what we do better and he struggled with adjustments and countering that. 

 

The past 2 weeks have been encouraging though, so hopefully that bye week helped him realize where he needed to be better so Allen and the offense could be better.  KC was also Allens best game of the season too, so hopefully we keep building on that rest of the season and be clicking come playoff time.  

[billsfan714]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I agree with all of this.
 

At the same time, not one of those guys belongs at the spot where they are on the depth chart. The Bills have a starting caliber slot receiver. He is probably a top 5-10 slot in the league. Put him aside for this conversation. They then have 2 guys that would be low end 2’s on the outside or decent 3’s (excluding slot) in Palmer/Moore. Coleman should slot in behind those 2. Samuel is a gadget guy. Shavers is ST. So they are missing AT LEAST a number 1 (and you could argue a number 2). They need either a number 2 or an elite field stretcher. 
 

I threw out a hypothetical trade this morning that I think I like. Torrence & a 2nd or 3rd for Tee Higgins. You can’t pay Torrence what it will take. Invest that money into retaining Edwards & McGovern. Play Anderson or another young guy at RG.
 

Humor me and let’s pretend the Bills do this. In 2026 the room would look something like Higgins-Palmer - Shakir as the starters. I’d have Moore/speed guy that can return kicks drafted in the mid rounds behind them. Coleman as a backup inside and outside. You can dump Samuel and use Moore to fill the gadget role. That room is infinitely better than this. 
 

The Bills can get more out of the WRs than they have. They have, unequivocally, a bottom 3 WR room in the league. Both statements are true.

So you cant pay Torrence but you can afford Higgins?

[QB Bills]

9 minutes ago, sven233 said:

While I don't disagree that there is still some meat on the bone with the WRs we have  as shown in this clip, that doesn't change the overall need to add a stud to the WR corps.  If you look at enough tape, there are plays like this that come up where a WR does come wide open and Allen doesn't throw them the ball.  But there are also more plays on tape with the WRs being completely suffocated with no breathing room.

 

The problem is, there are so many of the plays where the WRs are completely covered, that Allen is having a tough time trusting that the WRs ever come open and he rushes his reads to make sure he gets to the TEs because he has more confidence in the group.  It's about trust and who's earned it and this WR group just hasn't been trustworthy enough to get open on a regular basis for Allen and therefore there will be these opportunities once in a great while that are missed.

 

But that's just a small part of the bigger picture.  The thing is, we can win games with the WRs we have.  That's been proven.  You can get away with beating any NFL team during the regular season with the WRs we have.  The problem that you are going to run into is what happens come January and you are facing the best teams with the best defenses with a Championship on the line.  We all know the preparation, the focus, the attention to detail, the physicality, the game plan, etc. are all ratcheted up a notch and that's where inferior personnel will be exposed.  The margins are so slim in the Playoffs.  So, the question becomes when it's 4th and 4 with the game on the line in the Playoffs, who is Allen going to trust to get open off the line?  It isn't going to be the WRs we have as of this moment.

 

So, that's why there is such a call to get a DUDE on this team again.  When Diggs was here, especially the first couple years, Allen trusted him to make a play when it mattered and, for the most part, they connected.  Now, on the back part of his time here, I think that trust faded a bit after Diggs started to drop the ball or whatever, but when the connection was in its prime, it was snap, drop back, fire to Diggs in this big situations. 

 

We just don't have that guy now that Allen trusts.  Can Palmer become that guy once he's back by the end of the year?  Maybe.  But that connection hasn't been there all year until the first part of the Falcons game where he got hurt.  We'll have to see if they were onto something or if it was just a fluke when he's back.  But yeah.....we need our STUD that Allen can count on in pressure situations with the game on the line.  However, with the limited cap space we have, and teams unwilling to part with those types of guys, our best bet is to find that guy, on a cost controlled contract, in the draft.  But Beane hasn't shown the ability to identify that guy in the draft yet.  He literally drafted Coleman, a slow plodding WR that couldn't separate in college to be that guy at the top of the 2nd round.  Couldn't get open in college.  Can't get open in the NFL with consistency.  Allen has tried forcing him the ball to get him going and it hasn't worked.  His targets have seen a decline in recent weeks because of it and the fact Allen can't trust him in those key situations. 

 

It's time to take some premium assets and invest them on great prospects and upgrade the room with some top talent on cost controlled contracts.  But Beane needs to admit he was wrong about the group he put together and be willing to change it all while being much better in identifying top WR talent.  We'll see what happens in the off season with that.  In the meantime, we have to hope Allen and one of the WRs on the current roster find some sort of chemistry and trust before the Playoffs start.

If the receivers are getting open and Allen doesn't throw to them because he doesn't trust them, then I'm sorry but that's a Josh Allen problem, not a receiver one.

 

The reason we don't have a complete passing game is because Allen is not really looking downfield. His reads go from shallow to deep instead of the other way around almost exclusively. It's madness when you have a qb like that, but as they keep telling us, they're scoring points so it's all good.

 

For the record, this is a Sean McDermott offense imo, not a Joe Brady one.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

It's not a coincidence that many receivers - Diggs, Moore, Samuel, etc. - were more productive before they played for Brady than they were under him.  Brady isn't adept at scheming a downfield passing game.    

 

It's also true that we don't have an elite receiving corps.  (But it's more talented than the stats may suggest).  

And it's also true that Brady and McDermott seem to prefer a low-risk, balanced attack that minimizes TOs while scoring a bunch of points.  

 

And this is true too: the Bills see a lot of 2-high shells because opponents don't want cannon-armed Josh to heave the ball down the field.  

 

As I see it, the Bills general crappiness in the downfield passing game is a multifactorial issue.  However, I'm glad Big Turk posted about the misuse of our wide receivers because that's a part of it that doesn't get enough attention.  

 

 

 

I think this is largely true but I would quibble that it isn't so much that Brady isn't adept to it but more so that the approach is a high percentage ball control offense.

 

Honestly, I don't believe Allen has the trust in the receivers to look their way as often as he could.  You only have so many seconds to make a decision back there on where you want to distribute the ball and clearly the receivers are not typically his first or second looks.  But there have been quite a few occasions I've seen this year where Wide receivers were open and he just didn't get it there.   I'm not blaming him, no QB sees everything, its just that his confidence level is not there to make them one of his early reads in some of those spots.

 

I think little by little he has to have certain plays that he feels comfortable with to look to get the ball out to those receivers.   

Edited 1 hour ago by Magox

[milfandcookies]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Diggs was not being utilized the last half of the year, plus he never shows up against KC in the playoffs.

shows up against us though

 

seems like we were pretty awesome when Allen was throwing to Diggs

 

This backwards pass stuff and tush push offense kinda sucks

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

If the receivers are getting open and Allen doesn't throw to them because he doesn't trust them, then I'm sorry but that's a Josh Allen problem, not a receiver one.

 

 

 

Yes and no.  If your receiver loses reps when he was a main target and the play results in an incompletion, then confidence is lost and its natural that you begin to look at other options.   Trust is a process.

[strive_for_five_guy]

53 minutes ago, T.E. said:

I remain perplexed about the usage of Knox. Guy used to be a TD machine, and now he doesn't seem to get any looks.

Tony Gonzalez used to be a TD machine too.  Guys get older and slower.

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

He was even decent with the Jets when they started using him... I mean the guy has had revolving trashcans at QB his whole career and the least production is with Allen?? 

 

Makes no sense.

 

He got hurt early in the 2nd quarter against the Falcons. He caught a 40 yard bomb on the first play of the game and then caught a nice 20ish yard pass for a first down where he got pulled backwards on the tackle and hurt his knee...

 

Clearly they had a plan to use him more in that game and I'm thinking he will have his usage ramp up.

 

It seems Brady didn't believe in a traditional passing game.  Then we did against the Chiefs and look what happened.

He wants to get cute and go against the grain.  He's like "they'll never expect this" type of mindset.

 

 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, milfandcookies said:

shows up against us though

 

seems like we were pretty awesome when Allen was throwing to Diggs

 

This backwards pass stuff and tush push offense kinda sucks

 

Wait til the playoffs when he disappears when you need him most.  And that game was more about Allen refusing to take layups, bailing from clean pockets constantly and having happy feet. He was just off...no different than he has been at some point in mid October for 2 games in a row his entire career it seems, then course corrects and we never see it again. Last year it was Baltimore and Houston.

 

9 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Tony Gonzalez used to be a TD machine too.  Guys get older and slower.

 

Knox is 28...are we really going to start claiming that players in their 20s are now declining from age?

Edited 1 hour ago by Big Turk

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

So you cant pay Torrence but you can afford Higgins?

It’s about percentage of cap to a position group. You have to redeploy those cap dollars to WR. You’re paying Dawkins and Brown. In this scenario, you’d be paying Edwards and McGovern too. Torrence is in line for a big extension that would kick in for 2027. So, to answer your question, yes you can’t pay Torrence but can pay Higgins. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

My thoughts are that Moore needs to be playing a bigger role in this offense

 

Moore struggles badly with physical coverage. As a result he is not a great first read option because he is often getting chucked out of his route stem. If you can get him a free release yeah he can get open but you also have to be mindful of his small catch radius. He's just generally a low margin for error type of WR which is why two teams in a row have let him walk and he was still available to be signed after the draft. I think his target share right now is exactly where it should be.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by HappyDays

[Don Otreply]

They certainly aren’t optimizing the available talent in the passing game, should they improve in this category the offense will take a step up,

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Moore struggles badly with physical coverage. As a result he is not a great first read option because he is often getting chucked out of his route stem. If you can get him a free release yeah he can get open but you also have to be mindful of his small catch radius. He's just generally a low margin for error type of WR which is why two teams in a row have let him walk and he was still available to be signed after the draft. I think his target share right now is exactly where it should be.

 

 

Then get him in more stacked/bunch formations or have him in motion at the snap...eliminates that problem immediately. 

[SCBills]

Give me Moore/Samuel, eventually Davis on the outside and just shelf Keon at this point. 
 

Moore made a down field play Keon couldn’t dream of making against the Chiefs last week. 
 

There’s All-22 breakdowns of Samuel warranting Safety help over the top on some outside reps and opening up intermediate stuff down the field.