McD strategy blunders

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Andy Reid has no fear of Sean McDermott at all, he went for it on a 4th and 17 and made the first down, how does that even happen? We've been stuffed on 4 and 2/ 4th and 3 and they made a 4th and 17. As poor as Mahomes played this game due to the pressure they were only a TD away from tying it up at the end. How many on here thought once Prater missed that FG, "oh no 22 seconds" ? I sure as heck did and there's a reason for that. For me though this game really didn't mean much, none of these regular season games do, seeding in the playoffs doesn't mean much either imo, we've lost at home and on the road in the playoffs so just get me to the playoffs and hopefully McDermott doesn't hold us back again this season that's all you can ask for.

 

I thought the defense played as well as they could. Yes, the Chiefs made their share of big plays including the 4th and 17. But the defense held them to 21 points. Stopped them on 4th down. Had a goal line stand at the end of the half to force a FG when everybody thought they would get a TD. They harassed Mahomes all day and made him feel uncomfortable in the pocket. Realistically the Bills defense couldn't have played better.

[Danger Mouse]

Yeah, I was also thinking about waiting for us to beat the current AFC champions before raising this point. 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

If Prater makes the kick, no one is complaining. If McDermott punts there he's "spineless, gutless and clueless. Needs to trust his kicker to win and not play not to lose."

 

Agreed.

 

I get that analytics said the punt was the best move. But let's be real. It was a 99.9% win chance with a punt and 99.2% win chance with the FG attempt, so we arent talking much difference.

 

And as a McD game-decision critic, I would have absolutely bashed him for "playing not to lose" if he punted.

 

Go for the kick, and if you miss, then play tough defense to end the game. And by god, he rushed 4 on the first Hail Mary attempt, and 5 on the last attempt. So credit where it is due for not going back tot hat rush-3 and give them all day BS.

 

Can't knock the way he handled that.

 

(But ask me about the Defensive and ST Time Outs in another thread... )

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

He is in fact 75% over his career from 50-59, meaning he’s got a significantly better chance of making that kick than not.  You also discount the fact that the defense was in on Mahomes all night.  Do McD and Babich get credit for that, especially rushing 5 the last play so he couldn’t throw to the end zone?

He is not over 75% outside of Denver at 40+ years old. The Hail Mary defense was executed perfectly. This isn't a witch hunt, it's one call I don't agree with.  

[Kirby Jackson]

I am no McDermott fan but the FG was 100% the right decision. When you get a chance to end the game, you take it. 

[ScotSHO]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed.

 

I get that analytics said the punt was the best move. But let's be real. It was a 99.9% win chance with a punt and 99.2% win chance with the FG attempt, so we arent talking much difference.

 

And as a McD game-decision critic, I would have absolutely bashed him for "playing not to lose" if he punted.

 

Go for the kick, and if you miss, then play tough defense to end the game. And by god, he rushed 4 on the first Hail Mary attempt, and 5 on the last attempt. So credit where it is due for not going back tot hat rush-3 and give them all day BS.

 

Can't knock the way he handled that.

 

(But ask me about the Defensive and ST Time Outs in another thread... )

I feel like the anal-ytics would have been 33% punt, 33% FG and 33% go for it.  What were they actually?  I haven't seen the figures at that moment in time.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, ScotSHO said:

I feel like the anal-ytics would have been 33% punt, 33% FG and 33% go for it.  What were they actually?  I haven't seen the figures at that moment in time.

 

You're pretty much right, in that they were all really close and there wasnt much of a bad decision.

 

They reviewed it on Jeremy and Joe yesterday morning.

 

Punt: 99.9% win chance

Go for it: 99.3 % win chance

FG attempt: 99.2% win chance

 

So he went against analytics, by 0.7%, but did the most aggressive, playing to win move. Which I'm fine with. Especially with the way our D was playing.

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You're pretty much right, in that they were all really close and there wasnt much of a bad decision.

 

They reviewed it on Jeremy and Joe yesterday morning.

 

Punt: 99.9% win chance

Go for it: 99.3 % win chance

FG attempt: 99.2% win chance

 

So he went against analytics, by 0.7%, but did the most aggressive, playing to win move. Which I'm fine with. Especially with the way our D was playing.

I figured it was about 1% give or take. Didn't agree with it, but not the end of the world 

[boyst]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

If Prater makes the kick, no one is complaining. If McDermott punts there he's "spineless, gutless and clueless. Needs to trust his kicker to win and not play not to lose."

The odds were a tiny bit higher if we punted. WGR reviewed it. It went from 99.2 or something to 99.8 if we punted vs the field goal. Going for it was about equal, also

[Mat68]

38 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

No and no. Not a McD “hater” here.. I recognize he brings a lot of positives to the team as a HC. But time after time his game strategy decisions are terrible, especially in the biggest games. In previous posts I have advocated for a strategy coach, an advisor who sits in the booth, away from the chaos of the sidelines, and is able, based primarily on solid analytics, to present options and recommendations. Take a look at the Bills sidelines during a game. McD clapping, totally engrossed in each play, now calling defenses etc etc. Like every NFL sideline - chaos. The WORST possible environment to make strategic decisions. Every NFL coach could use a strategy coach.BTW, Vrabel in New England employs one.

 

     And he is not getting better at this. Last year, year 7 as HC, he made what ESPN’s Mike Greenberg called “probably not the worst decision we will see this year, but certainly the dumbest” by throwing choosing to throw 3 times at games end from his own one yard line, which handed Houston a win. McD then went on the to make the WORST decision of the year, calling a timeout with less than a minute to go with the Bills at the Rams one yard line. Brady, who was calling the game, reacted immediately, calling out what a horrible decision that was, as it left the Bills no chance to win, other than recovering an onside kick. And of course McD has a history of bad decisions - 13 seconds etc etc

 

Sunday McD strikes again. A strategy coach would have strongly advised against kicking that last field goal. A punt, a punt angled out of bounds ( to prevent any possible return) was the correct strategic decision. It’s virtually impossible for a team drive the ball down the field, 80 + yards, in 22 seconds with zero timeouts. It’s even unlikely a team could even get in position to throw a Hail Mary under those circumstances. Recall the 13 seconds game KC had all three timeouts and only needed a FG. Instead McD blunders again, and Mahomes second last pass was way too close to tying that game. These games are won on the margins, especially playoff games, and his strategic blunders have cost the Bills playoff losses in the past, and I don’t see any improvement in this area.Hire a strategy coach, not to make the final decision but to present best options away from the chaos that is an NFL sideline 
 

 

I disagree with every one of these.  Including 13 secs.  
 

1. 13 seconds.  The kickoff can be debated.  With a little under 2 mins left the secondary was up and Hill took a crossing route 70 yards for a touch down.  On the next play are you calling the same defense that just gave up 70?  You are playing off. 
 

2.  You pay Allen 250 mil because numerous times he has gotten into field goal range in absurdly fast fashion.  Lions game, Dolphins game.  I would fire Mcdermott on the spot if in that moment or one similar he takes the ball out of Allens hand. 
 

3.  Kick wins the game.  Prater has the leg and career of making them.  Draw back they have 23 secs to go 60 yards.  Positive you win the game.  Maybe go for it with Allen.  At that moment I think Prater making it was slightly higher probability than the offense converting.  KC and Spags are tops in the league in those situations. Vs the best teams go for the win every time.  

[RyanC883]

The OP’s conclusion is not wrong, but the evidence for it (punt over FG) I don’t agree with.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

The odds were a tiny bit higher if we punted. WGR reviewed it. It went from 99.2 or something to 99.8 if we punted vs the field goal. Going for it was about equal, also

Yup. And at that point with the odds so high of a win in any event, you risk that .6 to seal the game IMO. 

[thenorthremembers]

He is coaching his 140th game on Sunday.  Show me a coach who has coached that many games and doesnt have blunders you could list.   13 seconds was unforgivable for many people, thats the real issue.

 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

 

 

Sunday McD strikes again. A strategy coach would have strongly advised against kicking that last field goal. A punt, a punt angled out of bounds ( to prevent any possible return) was the correct strategic decision. 
 

 

 

I strongly disagree. The analytics supports kicking the FG. 

[RyanC883]

Just now, thenorthremembers said:

He is coaching his 140th game on Sunday.  Show me a coach who has coached that many games and doesnt have blunders you could list.   13 seconds was unforgivable for many people, thats the real issue.

 

I think the real issue is having JA and not making, yet alone winning a SB. 

[frostbitmic]

I'm not complaining here, we beat the f'n Chiefs, but I said to my wife before the play that this won't end well, at least it wasn't blocked and returned for a TD as I had feared.

 

My confusion was the three plays prior to the FG attempt. Sorry, but just running Cook into the heart of the line at that point seemed to be resigning yourself to kicking a 50+ yard FG for the two score lead. There are better places to run the ball than into the heart of an 11 man front. Running it behind Torrence and Brown while using every O-Lineman dressed on the field should gain yardage. You might even get a first down and just kill the clock. I thought they put the truck in neutral too soon.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

25 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I actually agree. In the game day thread I was berating McD for that decision. I don’t care if we had a prime Justin Tucker. Too much can go wrong giving Mahomes a short field like that. 

edit: @Rochesterfan do you just dislike every one of my posts ? Get a life. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

21 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

I thought the defense played as well as they could. Yes, the Chiefs made their share of big plays including the 4th and 17. But the defense held them to 21 points. Stopped them on 4th down. Had a goal line stand at the end of the half to force a FG when everybody thought they would get a TD. They harassed Mahomes all day and made him feel uncomfortable in the pocket. Realistically the Bills defense couldn't have played better.

 

I never once said they played bad but I still don't understand how a 4th and 17 happens unless it's a PI call.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

You're pretty much right, in that they were all really close and there wasnt much of a bad decision.

 

They reviewed it on Jeremy and Joe yesterday morning.

 

Punt: 99.9% win chance

Go for it: 99.3 % win chance

FG attempt: 99.2% win chance

 

So he went against analytics, by 0.7%, but did the most aggressive, playing to win move. Which I'm fine with. Especially with the way our D was playing.

 

I've seen different numbers on twitter. Will try and dig out. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

I never once said they played bad but I still don't understand how a 4th and 17 happens unless it's a PI call.

Bernard covered the wrong guy