Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, Richard Noggin said:

 

Like against a healthy Ravens defense who was up multiple scores in the 4th quarter?

Yes, like then.  Other than one single quarter in week 1, the passing game hasn’t been able to impose its will.  At some point again probably as soon as this Sunday, it’s going to have to be able to do so.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yes, like then.  Other than one single quarter in week 1, the passing game hasn’t been able to impose its will.  At some point again probably as soon as this Sunday, it’s going to have to be able to do so.

But that's the point of this thread, no? The Bills aren't trying to get their passing game to impose it's will on anybody.  They had no choice against the Ravens and Allen & company delivered. In every other game they have tried to get their running game to impose its will on the opponent.

 

I suspect that they were going to try to be more aggressive against Atlanta with the passing game but without Kincaid & Samuel and with Palmer going down in the 1st quarter they didn't have the horses to do it.

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yes, like then.  Other than one single quarter in week 1, the passing game hasn’t been able to impose its will.  At some point again probably as soon as this Sunday, it’s going to have to be able to do so.

 

100% agree. They will encounter opponents/games that force them to throw the ball to win. Like you, I'm not incredibly confident in their ability to do it. But they HAVE done it already this season in a HIGH leverage situation under the lights in prime time. In the two losses, it has seemed to my amateur eyes that Allen did a poor job of consistently diagnosing defensive looks and setting pass protections (I THINK it's mostly on him to do so, but not positive how much is McGovern as well). There were routes available against the blitz and Allen wasn't seeing it clearly enough pre-snap to have the right post-snap plan. Either he wasn't anticipating where the free runner/pressure was coming from and/or he wasn't on the same page with who should have been his hot receiver.

 

**Which also indicates the exacerbating issue of his WRs not assessing pre-snap and adapting post-snap to be QB friendly.

 

***But all this really also points to coaching for me: it's the coaches' jobs to ensure their players are prepared to execute against nearly all contingencies. Is Brady and his staff keeping up with and staying ahead of defensive plans enough to have their own players truly ready to win snaps on the field? I wonder about our WR and QB coaches. On the other hand, OL and TE coaching is no concern of mine. And as for OC, I really don't know. Great collaborator (Kromer has so much input on running and the offense overall, and it looks like Boras is also heavily involved). I just wonder about passing concepts (and when the game is on the line, and the run ain't running, you gotta have some go-to intermediate and boundary players/plays). 

[BeastMaster]

Another case of stats do lie

 

Data can be manipulated to fit whatever agenda you wanna push

 

This passing game doesn't pass the eye test

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Who even says the offense has to be effective?

 

That Broncos team that won the SB a decade ago didn't have an effective offense.

 

 

 

They had a supremely effective defense. We do not. 

[BullBuchanan]

 

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yards Per Attempt can be manipulated by the amount of attempts. YPA doesn't really mean much. It's how many attempts have been made and how many yards gained on those attempts that truly matter.

 

You ignored my question. I can't tell if you're missing my point or ignoring it.

If the Bills have a high YPA but a lower than typical yardage total, it simply means they haven't had as many attempts as other teams. You want a higher total? Throw the ball more. The bills haven't needed to throw the ball more than they have, so the total is lower. That's a good thing. Our running game has been bearing the load, but our passing game is as efficient as the best passing offenses in the league, they just don't pass as much.

If they happen to have a need to pass more, expect the yardage total to increase.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not sure that's a proven formula either.   It's just happened THAT way a few times in the last 50+ years.

 

The 2012 Ravens were 10th in scoring offense and 12th in scoring defense had like a 150 point point differential deficit to the Patriots.......but they won the AFC and then the SB after going 10-6 in the regular season.

 

I did an average last year of the ranks of SB winners in the past 25 years and it was like 7th offensively and 8th defensively.

 

Non-great teams without any "elite" side of the ball can win SB's.......if circumstances fall in their favor or they just get hot like Flacco did...... too.

 

The Bills have a punchers chance because of Josh, their running game and the potential of their defense to get pressure and create turnovers.

 

So I don't buy the "they can't win" line of thinking.........but I think it's A LOT less likely to happen without improving the quality of their receiving corps.

 

It would be a pretty big outlier because for the last 10 years the teams that win it usually have a second receiving option who ranks in the top 32 in receiving in the league.    Basically, doubling down on receiving talent has been paying dividends for a pretty long time now.

 

 

 

 

Didn't say it was a formula, just that you can win that way.

The 2012 Ravens aren't really a repeatable formula. They were just a well rounded decent team that rode an out of this world playoff run by Flacco to a SB. The comps there are probably the 9-7/10-6 Giants teams that beat Brady.

I just think the folks complaining about WR aren't being realistic. It's pretty clear to me that those folks aren't looking for a depth-type piece like Jacobi Meyers or Rasheed Shaheed. They make it sound like our WR room is in shambles, but one of those guys comes in and all of a sudden we're a SB contender? I don't buy it.

It's more like they want a top 10 type player like Chase, Nacua, jefferson, St. Brown, etc. That obviously isn't happening. IF we get even one WR they'll be somewhere between 25-50. That's a role player/depth guy. We've got a roster full of those guys already, so I don't think Beane's going to go out of his way to add another one.

One thing that MIGHT be possible is they look to upgrade the TE room since they seem like they really want to use them a lot. Maybe they finally go out and try to get Hockenson. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them try to upgrade RB2, since their entire philosophy is basically on Cook's shoulders right now and the dropoff is massive. Maybe Jordan Mason, Nick Chubb, or even Devin Singletary could be options there.

[Richard Noggin]

34 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

You ignored my question. I can't tell if you're missing my point or ignoring it.

If the Bills have a high YPA but a lower than typical yardage total, it simply means they haven't had as many attempts as other teams. You want a higher total? Throw the ball more. The bills haven't needed to throw the ball more than they have, so the total is lower. That's a good thing. Our running game has been bearing the load, but our passing game is as efficient as the best passing offenses in the league, they just don't pass as much.

If they happen to have a need to pass more, expect the yardage total to increase.

 

Sure, math says that generally more passing attempts will equal more passing yards. And that mostly holds true for this season for the Bills. But in the two losses where they needed to pass more and/or chose to pass more, were they effective in doing so? The answer in those games was NO. The answer in week one was YES.

 

Where the passing game goes from here remains a compelling question. Hopefully, Cook goes CRAZY on Sunday, and we don't need a definitive answer on the passing game this week. But that seems unrealistic. IMO we need to tap into more dynamic balance, earlier in games. Don't keep running repeatedly until the defense stops it, and instead take advantage through the air when the defense is forced to cheat more heavily to stop the run. Stay a step ahead, dammit. Keep em guessing. Run a FULL offense.

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

You ignored my question. I can't tell if you're missing my point or ignoring it.

If the Bills have a high YPA but a lower than typical yardage total, it simply means they haven't had as many attempts as other teams. You want a higher total? Throw the ball more. The bills haven't needed to throw the ball more than they have, so the total is lower. That's a good thing. Our running game has been bearing the load, but our passing game is as efficient as the best passing offenses in the league, they just don't pass as much.

If they happen to have a need to pass more, expect the yardage total to increase.

 

You make it sound like we've just been running the ball and scoring at will on the ground against anyone and everyone. And that the passing game is what it is bc we simply don't have to do it and aren't doing anything but running.

 

There's been multiple times we've had to do it. We had two straight weeks of losses, one against the lowly Falcons where we needed to pass to win and couldn't get the job done.

 

This past week we ran into a .500 Panthers squad with Andy Dalton (with a broken thumb) at QB. We ran all over them and that's great. We didn't need to pass again. We were playing a poor team. 

 

It goes back to the same overall point. Our passing woes are not a result of simply not needing to pass. If that were the case, New England and Atlanta wouldn't have gone down the way it did. And we aren't going to play Carolina every week. The good teams (and even a bad team like Atlanta) are going to contain it and we need to be able to do more than that.

 

I just don't see how you can look at the talent on the field from the pass catching room, the metrics of guys (not) getting open, and the metrics of (poor) separation, the results when our running game isn't unstoppable, and the simply point to some YPA metrics and think this is a "secretly elite offense".

 

Very good Running offense, sure. But that alone doesn't make an "Elite" offense. Our passing game, more specifically our WR'a, keep it from that.

Edited 10 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[H2o]

We'll find out Sunday. KC is going to key on the run game and force us to throw the football.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

You ignored my question. I can't tell if you're missing my point or ignoring it.

If the Bills have a high YPA but a lower than typical yardage total, it simply means they haven't had as many attempts as other teams. You want a higher total? Throw the ball more. The bills haven't needed to throw the ball more than they have, so the total is lower. That's a good thing. Our running game has been bearing the load, but our passing game is as efficient as the best passing offenses in the league, they just don't pass as much.

If they happen to have a need to pass more, expect the yardage total to increase.

why are you neglecting the Pats and Atlanta game where they were behind all game and only scored 20 and 14 points? That is not elite offense. 

[BobbyC81]

11 hours ago, Pete said:

Running is awesome.  Its also awesome to use running to set up the pass.  When we pass out of 12 and 13 personal, we are very successful.  Problem is its usually only twice a game.  Try that out sometime Joe.  Heres another freebie Joe.  KC is dead last versus play action.  Me, Joe Marino, and everyone, have been pounding the table for MORE PLAY ACTION!  This week against KC would be a great opportunity for plentiful play action.

You can’t run play action when on 3rd and short they frequently have an empty backfield.  
 

How about on the 1st offensive play of the game, since video of their games would show they usually run, they have Josh under center, do play action and throw deep?

 

It seems like the last three OCs have done the same things where they too often make it easy for the opposing defenses by taking away the element of surprise.  Three TEs, they’re going to run.  Spread out wide with empty backfield and they’re going to pass.

 

Lack of imagination.  They used to run that jet sweep with McKenzie where they timed it perfectly where Josh took the snap just as McKenzie approached him, the O-linemen stood up and the defense couldn’t see that he was handed the ball until he was coming around the end.  Haven’t seen that in awhile.  You’d think they could do the same thing with Samuel or Moore.

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

You can’t run play action when on 3rd and short they frequently have an empty backfield.  
 

How about on the 1st offensive play of the game, since video of their games would show they usually run, they have Josh under center, do play action and throw deep?

 

It seems like the last three OCs have done the same things where they too often make it easy for the opposing defenses by taking away the element of surprise.  Three TEs, they’re going to run.  Spread out wide with empty backfield and they’re going to pass.

 

Lack of imagination.  They used to run that jet sweep with McKenzie where they timed it perfectly where Josh took the snap just as McKenzie approached him, the O-linemen stood up and the defense couldn’t see that he was handed the ball until he was coming around the end.  Haven’t seen that in awhile.  You’d think they could do the same thing with Samuel or Moore.

Bills running game, and offense is much better when under the center.  Another tip for you Joe.

 

Yes Bills are so predictable Joe Brady.   It’s easy for me to know from my couch what the Bills are calling.  
 

You are correct sir- 12 and 13 personal- we are going to run.  Shotgun we are passing.  2nd and 2 we are running instead of play action.  Me and many have been pounding the table for more passing out of 12 and 13  personal.  The numbers back my claim- Bills are very successful passing out this formation.  Don’t the Bills have an analytics program?  Does Brady not believe in analytics?

[Psautcsk]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

We'll find out Sunday. KC is going to key on the run game and force us to throw the football.

If we get down early, do we continue to run or go into panic mode and attempt to pass to covered receivers and perhaps turn the ball over? I would continue to run if we get down and at least try to keep the game close and lessen the risk of turning the ball over.

[machine gun kelly]

Bull, while I appreciate your enthusiasm, I really do, the fact is we are not getting consistent separation.  Coleman has proven now in two years he’s too slow, and also has two team discipline infractions.  We need one of the several names floated these past two weeks by insiders.

 

On the positive side, I believe Palmer participated yesterday in some capacity yesterday.  If we want the most remote hope of winning Sunday, we need him, as well as a great day by Cook.  We also need Kinkaid to make it through the game.  Beane needs toget his head out of his behind, and find a trade partner.  Just admit he was horribly wrong on Coleman (not publicly of course) by trading for a real WR.  I’m normally pretty positive about McBeane, but this isn’t working.  We can’t reasonably expect Cook to run for 216 yards every game.

[4th&long]

12 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

If you haven't watched Michael MacKelvie's stuff before, he just might be the most interesting sports content creator out there right now.
 
After watching this video, I checked the Bills rushing and passing per attempt, and while rushing at #2 (5.2 YPA) wasn't a total surprise, I was definitely shocked to see us at tied with Detroit #5 (8.0 YPA) in passing. Interesting there's only three teams inside the top 10 in both (Bills, Colts, Ravens), and only the Bills and Colts are in the top 5 in both. Every team except the Ravens in the top 10 passing YPA is in a playoff spot right now. On the top 10 rushing YPA, it's 40-60 (Bills, Colts, Broncos, Chargers) with the Panthers and Jags each on the edge.

McDermott has been  telling us for years that he wants to run the football, and Beane has been telling us for a couple years that he doesn't think we have a receiving issue. Is it possible they're actually on to something here?

 

Ask the Falcons and pats. We'll find out more sunday. 

[GerstAusGosheim]

It's such a secret, they're going to tell us after Josh retires.

[Behindenemylines]

On another note but similarly related, I’m getting sick of the phrase “everyone eats”.  Who’s with me on this?

 

that is all, have a great Halloween Friday 

 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Psautcsk said:

If we get down early, do we continue to run or go into panic mode and attempt to pass to covered receivers and perhaps turn the ball over? I would continue to run if we get down and at least try to keep the game close and lessen the risk of turning the ball over.

Ball control and getting 7 versus 3 will be the key. There needs to be a short passing game that is an extension of the run game. 

[Dillenger4]

14 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

They will eventually HAVE TO pass to win a game.  Probably this Sunday when the Chiefs go up by two scores to start the game.  Let’s see if they can turn on the octane when they need to - I’m skeptical.

Baltimore says "HI"