Bills are just 4 games away from being the most patient fanbase in the Super Bowl era.

[Sweats]

10 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

To all the good folks out there who want to fire McD: Tell me what you see in Terry's resume that makes you believe he's going to pick a good successor?

 

Pegs first hired Rex for the Bills.  And he's been through Ruff, Rolston, Nolan, Bylsma, Housley, Krueger, Granato, and Ruff again with the Sabres.  Unless you count the Bandits, his track record at picking coaches isn't good.  McDermott is his best major sports hire so far - in fact, the only one to have a winning record and the only one to reach the playoffs  

 

As I posted previously, 11 coaches with winning records were fired in the SB era.  Only 2 teams improved after they fired their winning head coach.  Only 1 won a Super Bowl.  It just doesn't happen a lot.  Terry's track record doesn't suggest he'll beat the odds.  

 

I trust McD to deliver us a trophy eventually more than I trust Terry to pick a successor who will.  

 

 

 

 

Terry has shown with the Sabres, that once he finds a deadbeat scrub of a HC, he rides that poor mule into submission, so judging from past experience, McD ain't going anywhere, Lombardi or not

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The average tenure of a head coach is only about 3.5 or 4 years.  Guys like Tomlin are the exception, not the rule.  That's why it's called it the Not For Long league."

 

So of course Super Bowls are going to be won by coaches who haven't been in position very long.  Most coaches haven't been in position very long.  

That doesn't mean firing a coach leads to a trophy because usually it doesn't.  

 

 

You really seem to completely missing the point.  The point is that changing coachesis no  less likely to result in a Super Bowl appearance, than becoming the singularity of the longest lasting duo without an appearance suddenly making an appearance.  From the perspective of winning a conference championship there is no incremental risk involved with changing coaches, notwithstanding the pearl clutching by some 

[colin]

in recent history (since 2k) we have tampa canning dungy to bring in chuckie and winning a chip.

 

we have indy firing their prior coach and bringing in dungy and winning a chip.

 

we have denver firing fox (wasn't that right after going to and losing a chip?!?!, that would be the highlight of mcclappy's career, losing a superbowl) and brining in next dude who won a chip.

 

we have philthy firing fat andy who went on to be considered one of the goats, and then (a bit later mind you) got a chip coach, and kinda two chip qbs, ditched both qbs and the coach, got a coach, went to two and won a chip.

 

i really hope we break this trend and are the first to win after many years w teh same hc and qb, but there's not data that says moving onto the next won't improve our chances.  obviously we could get a pumpkin and it would make us worse, but how many NFL pros/experts would even say we have the best coach in our division, and this is considering two of them have combined for one total win this season, and are both wondering if they get fired during or at the end of this season.

[The Frankish Reich]

And so it is our fate to be a kind of Marvin Lewis/Andy Dalton successor, albeit with good character.

[Búfalo Blanco]

This is the most patient fanbase, including myself, that I've ever witnessed. I've been a Bills fan since about 1988, and this team has endured more heartbreak than the Red Sox (before they finally broke the curse or whatever). 

 

But any of us that believe Sean McDermott can lead this team to a championship (outside of several large miracles by Allen to save him), we are kidding ourselves. This is the same script as previous years, but there isn't as much talent on defense., Not that that matters, because McDermott's "defensive genius" couldn't stop Vinny Testarverde at 61 years old in a divisional playoff game... much less Mahomes and Reid.

Edited 5 hours ago by Búfalo Blanco

[DrDawkinstein]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Fair points.

 

But I guess even though I'm not a mathematician, I'm a game theorist at heart because I see the future as a bunch of probabilities with no certainty at all.  

 

With 32 teams in the league, the average NFL team has a 3% chance of winning a Lombardi.  I think with McD and Josh (and Beane's flawed rosters), we have about a 10% chance each season.  Better than most teams, not as good as KC's.  That means we have a 65% chance of winning at least one trophy over the next ten years.

 

But let's say the fans get their wish and McD is fired.  I think there's only about a 10% chance that Pegs hires someone better than McD.  Historically, teams usually get worse after firing a winning head coach.  And Pegs track record at hiring coaches (just look at the Sabres) isn't good.  Finally, most proven head coaches are either gainfully employed or retired.  Hiring a coordinator to be our HC, or a college HC, is a real roll of the dice.  

 

I think our odds are better with McD.  

 

Couple of things...

 

If you think our chances each season with McD/Josh are 10%, how much of that is just Josh? What would our chances be with McD and an average QB? Now what are our chances with an average HC and Josh? I'd think it's about 1-3% with McD/QB, and ~7% with HC/Josh.

 

Additionally, Pegs track record with the Sabres is completely irrelevant when it comes to running the Bills. He has two completely different approaches between the teams. He thinks he's a hockey guy. Thats how he got into this whole sports business to begin with. He has a very active role in the Sabres hirings. With the Bills and NFL, he knows he's in over his head. HE didnt find McD, a consulting firm he hired did. He would hire that same consulting firm.

 

I do agree with your last point, in that Terry's inaction and refusal to see the truth after 13 seconds and other debacles has cost us chances at Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and Mike Vrabel, and I dont have any other ideas left. But as I've said numerous times here before, almost none of us knew of Sean McDermott back in December 2016, so who knows...

 

Edited 4 hours ago by DrDawkinstein

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

You really seem to completely missing the point.  The point is that changing coachesis no  less likely to result in a Super Bowl appearance, than becoming the singularity of the longest lasting duo without an appearance suddenly making an appearance.  From the perspective of winning a conference championship there is no incremental risk involved with changing coaches, notwithstanding the pearl clutching by some 

 

I can't say with any certainty that I know your point.  I know mine: changing coaches right now is probably a bad idea.  I don't think Pegs is likely to hire a better coach.  I think it's more likely he'll hire a coach worse than McD, thus making it less likely we'll win a Lombardi.  You clearly disagree and that's fine.  Neither of us gets to make the decision.

 

It you want to call my opinion "pearl clutching," go ahead.  Besides maybe not understanding your point, I also don't know why you resort to ad hominem attacks to support your case.  It's truly puzzling to me but I'm having a fine day regardless.  About to take the husky along for a ride on my bike on a sunny California day. 

 

Hoping for both our sakes that - however it happens - this team hoists a Lombardi someday soon.    

 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

changing coaches right now is probably a bad idea. 

 

no, changing coaches right now (if the intent is to win a SB) is a neutral proposition

[HOUSE]

I love all funny story

[Chaos]

16 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I can't say with any certainty that I know your point.  I know mine: changing coaches right now is probably a bad idea.  I don't think Pegs is likely to hire a better coach.  I think it's more likely he'll hire a coach worse than McD, thus making it less likely we'll win a Lombardi.  You clearly disagree and that's fine.  Neither of us gets to make the decision.

 

It you want to call my opinion "pearl clutching," go ahead.  Besides maybe not understanding your point, I also don't know why you resort to ad hominem attacks to support your case.  It's truly puzzling to me but I'm having a fine day regardless.  About to take the husky along for a ride on my bike on a sunny California day. 

 

Hoping for both our sakes that - however it happens - this team hoists a Lombardi someday soon.    

 

Hypothetically if we changed coaches, and made the playoffs the next year, would you keep that new coach for 8 seasons, as long as we made the playoffs?

 

[Billsfanatic8989]

HC's I think would/could bring a title to Buffalo:

 

Belichick

Gruden 

Mike McCarthy

 

They need a veteran HC with prior success. Belichick stands out. But my concern is he would want a say on drafting and is 74 as if next season.

 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Billsfanatic8989

[LABILLBACKER]

29 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Couple of things...

 

If you think our chances each season with McD/Josh are 10%, how much of that is just Josh? What would our chances be with McD and an average QB? Now what are our chances with an average HC and Josh? I'd think it's about 1-3% with McD/QB, and ~7% with HC/Josh.

 

Additionally, Pegs track record with the Sabres is completely irrelevant when it comes to running the Bills. He has two completely different approaches between the teams. He thinks he's a hockey guy. Thats how he got into this whole sports business to begin with. He has a very active role in the Sabres hirings. With the Bills and NFL, he knows he's in over his head. HE didnt find McD, a consulting firm he hired did. He would hire that same consulting firm.

 

I do agree with your last point, in that Terry's inaction and refusal to see the truth after 13 seconds and other debacles has cost us chances at Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and Mike Vrabel, and I dont have any other ideas left. But as I've said numerous times here before, almost none of us knew of Sean McDermott back in December 2016, so who knows...

 

Maybe Terry should've asked his consulting firm what we should've done after 13s? No one can convince me otherwise that 80-90% of what this team accomplishes in the win column is not because of Josh's existence. McDermott is never getting a better qb in his career than Josh. In 7.5 seasons, McDermott's coaching ceiling seems to hover somewhere between the divisional and conference round. We've all seen his in game mistakes.  We've all seen his defense struggle in the playoffs. 

 

Josh's pure greatness will always be enough to get this team to the playoffs.  He's that good.  But making that extra leap into a SB requires a level of support from your HC/GM that 17 has not been privileged to receive. 

[section122]

I'd be more interested to know about GMs.  To me the issue on the Bills isn't the coaches its the talent relative to the other teams. I will continue to maintain that the Bills have yet to lose a playoff game to a team that they were more talented than.  Look at the current roster and tell me how many guys are top 5 at their position?

 

There is a stunning lack of all pros and pro bowlers for a team that has been this successful. Last year was expected to be a step back year and the Bills won the division and made the AFC Championship game. 2024 the Ravens and Chiefs had 6 all pros each.  The Bills had Josh Allen.  2023 Ravens had 6, Chiefs had 4, Bills had 1 (2nd teamer Taron Johnson).  This continues each and every year with the exception of 2020 where the Chiefs, Colts, and Bills all had 5.

 

Complain about the defensive performance in the playoffs and I agree it has been subpar but look at who is on the field in these games.  Starters missing all over the place each year.  I agree wholeheartedly that the team needs to move away from the small fast defense and get bigger and stronger.  I also think not addressing the safety position this year was a mistake.  We have 2 Strong safeties and no free safety.

[colin]

14 minutes ago, section122 said:

I'd be more interested to know about GMs.  To me the issue on the Bills isn't the coaches its the talent relative to the other teams. I will continue to maintain that the Bills have yet to lose a playoff game to a team that they were more talented than.  Look at the current roster and tell me how many guys are top 5 at their position?

 

There is a stunning lack of all pros and pro bowlers for a team that has been this successful. Last year was expected to be a step back year and the Bills won the division and made the AFC Championship game. 2024 the Ravens and Chiefs had 6 all pros each.  The Bills had Josh Allen.  2023 Ravens had 6, Chiefs had 4, Bills had 1 (2nd teamer Taron Johnson).  This continues each and every year with the exception of 2020 where the Chiefs, Colts, and Bills all had 5.

 

Complain about the defensive performance in the playoffs and I agree it has been subpar but look at who is on the field in these games.  Starters missing all over the place each year.  I agree wholeheartedly that the team needs to move away from the small fast defense and get bigger and stronger.  I also think not addressing the safety position this year was a mistake.  We have 2 Strong safeties and no free safety.

 

I think you make a strong point.

 

my consideration on this tho: our HC has a pretty big influence on who gets drafted, i think more than most HCs.  also, if you bring in a good GM, he will most likely want to hire his own coaches.  beane came in after mcd, who basically hired his old pal from carolina, and who since added a lot of players and coaches who had prior carolina experience.  how would mcd be with a new GM?  any GM worth his salt is going to come in as the main guy, and make his own coaching decisions.  one that would come in and be mcd friendly will still be influenced by mcd.

 

beane has had issues with getting talent at wr, and maybe left too many holes at safety or corner or whatever, but his real failings have been

 

Star and star contract

milano contract

diggs extension (not the initial trade for him, that was great)

von and his contract

knox contract

tre contract (he got hurt right after)

the draft capital given up for in season trades (3rd for that fat carolina WR, 3rd or so for hines, 3rd for wr last season, 3rd for douglas)

 

he's made some otherwise good picks and good extensions, but those once are what really killed us, we were paying so much for WR, LB, CB, TE, Pass rusher and for 2+ seasons basically had none of them.  as of this season we have holes at 3 of those positions still!

 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, colin said:

 

I think you make a strong point.

 

my consideration on this tho: our HC has a pretty big influence on who gets drafted, i think more than most HCs.  also, if you bring in a good GM, he will most likely want to hire his own coaches.  beane came in after mcd, who basically hired his old pal from carolina, and who since added a lot of players and coaches who had prior carolina experience.  how would mcd be with a new GM?  any GM worth his salt is going to come in as the main guy, and make his own coaching decisions.  one that would come in and be mcd friendly will still be influenced by mcd.

 

beane has had issues with getting talent at wr, and maybe left too many holes at safety or corner or whatever, but his real failings have been

 

Star and star contract

milano contract

diggs extension (not the initial trade for him, that was great)

von and his contract

knox contract

tre contract (he got hurt right after)

the draft capital given up for in season trades (3rd for that fat carolina WR, 3rd or so for hines, 3rd for wr last season, 3rd for douglas)

 

he's made some otherwise good picks and good extensions, but those once are what really killed us, we were paying so much for WR, LB, CB, TE, Pass rusher and for 2+ seasons basically had none of them.  as of this season we have holes at 3 of those positions still!

 

HC also largely influences scheme on both sides of the ball

 

and there's nothing about McDermott's offensive/defensive control-the-ball complementary football approach that suggests our team should be stacking AllPro nods

 

so using them to grade Beane's tenure is pretty thin imo

[transient]

17 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Can you imagine what a guru like Mcvay/reid/shanny would do with Josh?

 

Or even just a bulldog like Campbell who would embrace him fully?

 

would Kevin O’Connell be terrible with Josh? Sean Payton? Jim harbaugh?

 

 

between this at of higher tier guys and my last list rattling off random mid tier coaches I’ve got to be close or at 15 names that would be able the win the AFCE and beat the Skylar Thompson dolphins in the wildcard?

 

Dan Quinn showing up with kingsbury would’ve been a fine enough floor. I think demeco is fine enough even if not a favorite of mine. Mike Macdonald similarly not a guy I’m stumping for but what’s the drop off?
 

Are we talking dropping 10 wins over 9 years and maybe miss the playoffs 1-2 times when those extra losses are clustered as the floor in this list? But also a ceiling where some have rings? 

 

 

At this point, I'd take Cleveland's current coaching staff in it's entirety over ours. It's not their fault their FO's brutally awful.

[hondo in seattle]

15 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Couple of things...

 

If you think our chances each season with McD/Josh are 10%, how much of that is just Josh? What would our chances be with McD and an average QB? Now what are our chances with an average HC and Josh? I'd think it's about 1-3% with McD/QB, and ~7% with HC/Josh.

 

Additionally, Pegs track record with the Sabres is completely irrelevant when it comes to running the Bills. He has two completely different approaches between the teams. He thinks he's a hockey guy. Thats how he got into this whole sports business to begin with. He has a very active role in the Sabres hirings. With the Bills and NFL, he knows he's in over his head. HE didnt find McD, a consulting firm he hired did. He would hire that same consulting firm.

 

I do agree with your last point, in that Terry's inaction and refusal to see the truth after 13 seconds and other debacles has cost us chances at Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and Mike Vrabel, and I dont have any other ideas left. But as I've said numerous times here before, almost none of us knew of Sean McDermott back in December 2016, so who knows...

 

 

More Josh than McD.

 

When I think back on each of McD's seasons, I feel like he either won as many games as you'd expect given the roster or maybe a couple more than that.  In other words, he's above average but not stellar. 

 

I think our main problem has been the players on the field.  Either Beane hasn't gotten enough playmakers, or the playmakers were hurt, or both. I don't know how we can demand McD win a SB when, at least in my estimation, Beane's never given him a SB roster.

 

I think McD is good at 'process' and building culture, good habits, effort, execution (usually), and teamwork.  I don't think he's done a great job with picking coordinators and that shows up on those days we lose the X-and-O battle.  Not only is Andy Reid better than McD, his coordinators are better.  That's a real problem.  Though the gap isn't so great that the games aren't typically competitive.   

 

Between Terry, Beane, and McD, I probably trust McD the most. I don't know how much faith I have in Beane.  After his homerun with Josh, he's become a base hitter with more than his fair share of strikeouts.  

 

Terry is the member of the Bills Triumvirate whom I have the least faith in.  I think the chances of him hiring someone better than McD aren't especially good.  And, yeah, I get your points about the Sabres and Pegs hiring a consulting firm.  I also acknowledge the possibility that if McD was fired, Terry might just surprise me and find a great coach.  

 

But if there were two alternate universes: one where we keep McD, and the other where he's replaced, I'd put my money on the keep option.  But I'd have some trepidation about it. There are no sure bets in this game.  

[Simon]

 

Using the adjective "patient" to describe Bills fans after what I've seen in the here for the last 3 weeks is patently absurd.

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

Hypothetically if we changed coaches, and made the playoffs the next year, would you keep that new coach for 8 seasons, as long as we made the playoffs?

 

 

Probably, but it's situationally dependent.  

 

I think there are so many lucky and random events in a football game that the better team does not always win: bad ref calls, balls taking weird bounces, tipped balls going off in strange directions, players slipping, a normally sure-handed receiver allowing a ball to slide right through his hands for a pick six, all that stuff.  Obviously, you can tilt the odds in your favor by having a good roster and coaching staff but neither of those provides a guarantee.

 

What compounds the problem is that NFL playoffs are one-and-done.  No best of three, or five, or seven.  

 

So the way I think about it is that a good coach gets you a lottery ticket to the dance.  And there's no telling what will happen at the dance.  But 32 teams vie for tickets and only 14 get 'em.  So if your coach can get you that ticket, he's doing well and giving you a chance.  

 

But I also look at the roster and expected outcome.  If a roster is stuffed with All-Pros, I expect something more than a woeful departure after the wild card round, year after year.  

[Billsflyer12]

15 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Using the adjective "patient" to describe Bills fans after what I've seen in the here for the last 3 weeks is patently absurd.

To imply that Bills fans aren’t patient after 8 seasons of generational QB with no Super Bowl appearances is patently absurd to me.