Barnwell: Wrong takes article that includes Bills

[BillsVet]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46649475/2025-nfl-week-7-barnwell-wrong-takes-chiefs-colts-jaguars-bills

 

Worth a read.  

 

Per Barnwell: "What has gone wrong for the Bills? I'll start with the simplest possible explanation: They've been able to lean on a formula that nobody else in the league has managed to match, and that formula has come undone, especially over the past two games. If anyone is capable of rounding back into that form, it's the Bills, but what they were doing was mostly unprecedented in league history."

 

He then points to the turnover anomaly that was 2024.  For background, last year Buffalo gave it away 8 times against 28 takeaways in 20 regular and post-season games.  Goes on to mention pressure rate on Josh getting higher, not enough explosive plays, and of course the downturn in defense.  

 

The Bills are at a cross-roads in a way we've not seen in years, partially because there hasn't been much competition in the AFCE.  There is now.  Perhaps they use the bye-week to reflect and make changes, although if they don't it's hard to see them improving and less likely they get the 1 seed  

[vtnatefootball11]

Hard to disagree with any of this. 

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46649475/2025-nfl-week-7-barnwell-wrong-takes-chiefs-colts-jaguars-bills

 

Worth a read.  

 

Per Barnwell: "What has gone wrong for the Bills? I'll start with the simplest possible explanation: They've been able to lean on a formula that nobody else in the league has managed to match, and that formula has come undone, especially over the past two games. If anyone is capable of rounding back into that form, it's the Bills, but what they were doing was mostly unprecedented in league history."

 

He then points to the turnover anomaly that was 2024.  For background, last year Buffalo gave it away 8 times against 28 takeaways in 20 regular and post-season games.  Goes on to mention pressure rate on Josh getting higher, not enough explosive plays, and of course the downturn in defense.  

 

The Bills are at a cross-roads in a way we've not seen in years, partially because there hasn't been much competition in the AFCE.  There is now.  Perhaps they use the bye-week to reflect and make changes, although if they don't it's hard to see them improving and less likely they get the 1 seed  

He’s not wrong. The Bills wins in recent years have depended on a certain formula. With the exception of a few crazy comebacks, we Bills fans can usually tell in the first quarter or so if they’re on the way to a win. The turnover thing was crazy, but bound to be unsustainable. A regression was inevitable. They usually stayed out of 3rd and longs, and leaned heavily on Allen running. He was seldom sacked. This isn’t happening now, and they seem reluctant to run Allen very much. His off script plays opened up the offense. The defense isn’t good enough to make any big plays. There still isn’t much competition in the AFCE. Two of the four teams are among the NFL’s worst. The Pats had a decent record just a few seasons ago. A few years of mostly mediocre drafts/ FA by Beane are showing through. 

[DCOrange]

I thought the two stats below were pretty interesting:

1. Even over the past three weeks when our offense has fallen off, we're #2 in the league in success rate. Just hasn't translated into points due to the turnover regression.
2. Despite our defensive woes this season, we're #2 in the league in generating pressure on the QB. It's just that any time we don't get pressure on the QB, we're getting absolutely gashed.

[dave mcbride]

28 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/46649475/2025-nfl-week-7-barnwell-wrong-takes-chiefs-colts-jaguars-bills

 

Worth a read.  

 

Per Barnwell: "What has gone wrong for the Bills? I'll start with the simplest possible explanation: They've been able to lean on a formula that nobody else in the league has managed to match, and that formula has come undone, especially over the past two games. If anyone is capable of rounding back into that form, it's the Bills, but what they were doing was mostly unprecedented in league history."

 

He then points to the turnover anomaly that was 2024.  For background, last year Buffalo gave it away 8 times against 28 takeaways in 20 regular and post-season games.  Goes on to mention pressure rate on Josh getting higher, not enough explosive plays, and of course the downturn in defense.  

 

The Bills are at a cross-roads in a way we've not seen in years, partially because there hasn't been much competition in the AFCE.  There is now.  Perhaps they use the bye-week to reflect and make changes, although if they don't it's hard to see them improving and less likely they get the 1 seed  

The whole thing is worth reading.

[QCity]

This snippet summarizes the article very well -

 

It's the turnovers. The offense simply never gave away the football. Between their bye week in November last year and the win over the Dolphins, the Bills played 12 games (including playoffs). Their offense turned the ball over exactly one time. That has never happened before, and it has never even been approached.

[BuffaloRebound]

49 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I thought the two stats below were pretty interesting:

1. Even over the past three weeks when our offense has fallen off, we're #2 in the league in success rate. Just hasn't translated into points due to the turnover regression.
2. Despite our defensive woes this season, we're #2 in the league in generating pressure on the QB. It's just that any time we don't get pressure on the QB, we're getting absolutely gashed.

Tells you how bad our back 7 on defense has been.  Can’t cover anybody and if the RB gets past the LOS it’s a jailbreak.  

[Heavy Kevi]

All fair points, and I think it's fair to say that basically never turning the ball over is not sustainable.

 

I would also attribute a lot of it to the fact that the offensive scheme and defensive scheme have been exposed in a way that can be imitated by future opponents. Gimmicks like "everybody eats" only work when they are novel (like last year), but defenses have adjusted.

 

The defense on the other hand seems to just be toast. So far they have made some bad QBs look amazing this year, at least situationally (from Tua, to the kids in NO and ATL). 

 

Right now it feels like the wheels are coming off, and it's a function of roster building a bit, sure (all of our best d players are very injury prone); but I would argue that the schemes on O and D are just plain outdated and have been figured out, so to speak.

 

The deep cover 2 that McDermott has made his career on really only works with a dline that gets pressure with 4 and a very talented secondary. We used to have those things but don't now.

 

The everybody eats offense is basically a modified WCO without the threat to take the top off the defense, which is tough to maintain. Add that to the fact that they are incredibly predictable (the team runs the ball over 70% of the time under center and throws the ball over 70% of the time from the gun), and to use a fighting term... Telegraphing your punches and allowing the defense to only defend a one thing at a time.

 

And I won't even get started how often #4 isn't even on the field for big downs.

 

He is also 100% correct on having competition. NE has a wily young team that is hungry. Our team doesn't look hungry anymore. They look tired and out of sorts. The Bills should probably still be favorites to win the division, but if a few more weeks don't go our way, that cannot be expected to continue.

[Blackbeard]

My opinion is we're playing for a WC are this point.

 

Pats have a cake walk remaining.  

 

If this year turns out to be a bust, what a missed GOLDEN opportunity.  Schedule.  Cinci/Balt not well.  

 

 

[boyst]

27 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

My opinion is we're playing for a WC are this point.

 

Pats have a cake walk remaining.  

 

If this year turns out to be a bust, what a missed GOLDEN opportunity.  Schedule.  Cinci/Balt not well.  

 

 

they're not mature enough to only lose 1 game. Atlanta's defense will test the young Maye and that team and can control the clock on them.

 

The Bucs won't be kind to them with Embuka and Mike Williams on the field.  We have a chance to seal our fate after that.

[GoBills808]

Barnwell and the national guys may have overlooked it but there were a lot of people here talking about a near inevitable regression in turnover ratio and its potential impact

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, Blackbeard said:

My opinion is we're playing for a WC are this point.

 

Pats have a cake walk remaining.  

 

If this year turns out to be a bust, what a missed GOLDEN opportunity.  Schedule.  Cinci/Balt not well.  

 

 

Everyone keeps saying this but their  schedule isn’t a cakewalk in my opinion. They will have plenty of games that are tough. 

[Psautcsk]

1 hour ago, Heavy Kevi said:

All fair points, and I think it's fair to say that basically never turning the ball over is not sustainable.

 

I would also attribute a lot of it to the fact that the offensive scheme and defensive scheme have been exposed in a way that can be imitated by future opponents. Gimmicks like "everybody eats" only work when they are novel (like last year), but defenses have adjusted.

 

The defense on the other hand seems to just be toast. So far they have made some bad QBs look amazing this year, at least situationally (from Tua, to the kids in NO and ATL). 

 

Right now it feels like the wheels are coming off, and it's a function of roster building a bit, sure (all of our best d players are very injury prone); but I would argue that the schemes on O and D are just plain outdated and have been figured out, so to speak.

 

The deep cover 2 that McDermott has made his career on really only works with a dline that gets pressure with 4 and a very talented secondary. We used to have those things but don't now.

 

The everybody eats offense is basically a modified WCO without the threat to take the top off the defense, which is tough to maintain. Add that to the fact that they are incredibly predictable (the team runs the ball over 70% of the time under center and throws the ball over 70% of the time from the gun), and to use a fighting term... Telegraphing your punches and allowing the defense to only defend a one thing at a time.

 

And I won't even get started how often #4 isn't even on the field for big downs.

 

He is also 100% correct on having competition. NE has a wily young team that is hungry. Our team doesn't look hungry anymore. They look tired and out of sorts. The Bills should probably still be favorites to win the division, but if a few more weeks don't go our way, that cannot be expected to continue.

The Bills should not be favored to win the division.  The game in Foxboro will be huge and that is one I do not see us winning.

[corta765]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I thought the two stats below were pretty interesting:

1. Even over the past three weeks when our offense has fallen off, we're #2 in the league in success rate. Just hasn't translated into points due to the turnover regression.
2. Despite our defensive woes this season, we're #2 in the league in generating pressure on the QB. It's just that any time we don't get pressure on the QB, we're getting absolutely gashed.

It really highlights the mistakes between turnovers and penalties. The Saints game showed how badly they were playing with fire and the following two weeks they got burned bad. NOW mix in points 1 & 2 here and it makes those issues even more sizable.

 

Realistically the reason why nationally more people aren't as concerned as locals and local coverage is because the offense will have far more better days with less penalties & turnovers along with Josh just not having bad days like ATL. To add to that when the numbers say your defense is generating pressure it generally swings back in your favor where the sacks come. That won't save the defense which needs better tackling and coverage, but it will help make them at least more middling.

 

I also believe whether true or not they have a break glass situation with Josh which if it gets tight enough in the season they tell him go nuts. We saw it in 2023 when they were 6-6 and he basically became a wrecking ball. Unfortunately the difference now is the coach and QB over in NE are far better then the guys down south and if they fall off too much here your looking at wildcard spots not the division.

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

It really highlights the mistakes between turnovers and penalties. The Saints game showed how badly they were playing with fire and the following two weeks they got burned bad. NOW mix in points 1 & 2 here and it makes those issues even more sizable.

 

Realistically the reason why nationally more people aren't as concerned as locals and local coverage is because the offense will have far more better days with less penalties & turnovers along with Josh just not having bad days like ATL. To add to that when the numbers say your defense is generating pressure it generally swings back in your favor where the sacks come. That won't save the defense which needs better tackling and coverage, but it will help make them at least more middling.

 

I also believe whether true or not they have a break glass situation with Josh which if it gets tight enough in the season they tell him go nuts. We saw it in 2023 when they were 6-6 and he basically became a wrecking ball. Unfortunately the difference now is the coach and QB over in NE are far better then the guys down south and if they fall off too much here your looking at wildcard spots not the division.

 

They actually turned it around in 2023 by running the ball more with the RB's from what I remember. When Joe Brady took over that year he was relying on Josh less than Dorsey was. So while Josh always has the break glass in case if needed thing going I think that turn around in 2023 was largely the Bills leaning on him less.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Blackbeard said:

My opinion is we're playing for a WC are this point.

 

Pats have a cake walk remaining.  

 

If this year turns out to be a bust, what a missed GOLDEN opportunity.  Schedule.  Cinci/Balt not well.  

 

 

 

Not really true and football is weird.

NE will have to play ATL/TB back to back plus the Ravens who will have Lamar and some guys on that defense back. The Giants are more then frisky with a great defensive line similar to CLE who they also play. Even the most optimistic Pats fans know their ceiling is probably 12-5 with the games coming as their defense is not perfect and the offense still needs some talent regardless of Maye.

 

With that said the margin for error for Buffalo is now low. Your going to have to beat NE to pretty much guarantee the division crown, but you really can't finish worse then 11-6 to have a decent shot at it and I would honestly say 12-5 is the safe point for the division if you beat NE. 

 

The real issue now is far less NE assuming you can win there and can the Bills not slip up too much as the schedule has some challenges especially that back to back of at HOU/ at PIT. You can only lose one of those otherwise tiebreaker wise your opening the door wider where NE is ahead of you even if you tie at the end of the year and even if you beat them in December. Again I was furious when they blew that SNF game at home because they gave the Pats a far greater look then they should've and made the season far more difficult given the remainder of games they have.

[corta765]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

They actually turned it around in 2023 by running the ball more with the RB's from what I remember. When Joe Brady took over that year he was relying on Josh less than Dorsey was. So while Josh always has the break glass in case if needed thing going I think that turn around in 2023 was largely the Bills leaning on him less.

Sorry I meant more they let Josh be Josh and you are correct they did run more, but part of that was letting Josh go too. They have said for years and Josh has too that they would rather later in the year Josh takes more hits when it matters then earlier. Josh in those 5 games had 36 yards a game on the ground and 5 TDs, the offense itself ran for 744 and 8 TDs. They absolutely committed to the run way more, but a substantial part was Josh himself was utilized also more.

[Billl]

15 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

They actually turned it around in 2023 by running the ball more with the RB's from what I remember. When Joe Brady took over that year he was relying on Josh less than Dorsey was. So while Josh always has the break glass in case if needed thing going I think that turn around in 2023 was largely the Bills leaning on him less.

I think you’ve got that backwards.  When Brady took over, Josh’s rushing attempts went through the roof.  He averaged 9 carries a game after the switch whereas he never had 9 carries in a game that season when Dorsey was calling the plays.

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

This snippet summarizes the article very well -

 

It's the turnovers. The offense simply never gave away the football. Between their bye week in November last year and the win over the Dolphins, the Bills played 12 games (including playoffs). Their offense turned the ball over exactly one time. That has never happened before, and it has never even been approached.

its hard to be totally unprecedented all the time. You can flip a coin and land on heads a dozen times but if you aren’t weighting it, that’s hard to repeat. 
 

without elite talent backing up opposing safeties, and game changing pass rushers- it’ll be hard to be unprecedented for 12 more games now 

 

hopefully bosa/rousseau/oliver turn up at least a shade more and we find some way to spread defenses thinner too 

[colin]

the success rate per play and the pressure by the d shows where our wins will come from, should they come.

 

the article was good but did not mention penalties.  since the NO game we have been about the worst in the nfl in penalties and penalty differential.  some of that is bad/unlucky calls but more of it is unprepared players and sloppy play.

 

on the turnover front -- it's true we can't always expect to generate turnovers and to not turn the ball over, but the two jet sweep fumbles were hideous play calls and design.  most jet sweeps run are little underhand tosses, so that if the ball is dropped it is an incomplete pass rather than a fumble, we of course have to outsmart everyone and fumble the ball and kill the drive.  a couple of the ints were on bad spacing/play design and frankly being just too predictable (the 80% run under center, 80% pass out of shotty is OD).

 

i heard today the bills allow the highest % of explosive run plays (i think 10 or 15 yards) and the highest % of stuffs (like 1 yard or less).  while the secondary play always seem super lax and conservative, we play the run like psycho gamblers.  also, we run about as much as anyone, and are basically about the best at it on offense.  it's pretty clear we have to build on strength and put wrinkles into the offense to be less predictable and on D to somehow not just allow teams to run on us at will.  a couple stuffs and a 20 rip is a net negative for the D.

 

we are personnel limited and maybe just maybe KC is too stacked w all the speed on O this season for us to do anything, but if we can get the DL to be the strength of the d, which it has shown it can be so far, and line up w lots of TEs and backs and pass and run with our best talent on the field, then i think we have our best chance.