Game week thread - Pats at Bills SNF

[PaattMaann]

14 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

Where we at on the injury front?

 

Anyone back practicing?

 

no practices yet this week. McD said Milano and Ed and Spencer were "trending right" but wouldnt say more than that. Practice tomorrow will tell us more (maybe). 

[Simon]

16 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Could this be the loss of Poyer and Hyde? They did a lot of pre-snap adjustments.

 

I'm doubtful just because I think it would have reared its head more last year.

My hope is that it's just a combination of them a) willingly trying a bunch of new and different things (which they have been at times) and b) integrating a bunch of younger or newer players into the system. That could legitimately be the primary issue and it will clean itself up over time, but every time I make that argument in my head I just feel like I'm whistling past the graveyard. 

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

Could you be a bit more explicit?  The new stuff - is it common stuff done elsewhere that the Bills just haven't done much of or is Babich really getting creative?  How do you know this?  Are you doing film analysis yourself or reading it somewhere?

Its nothing radical, but has been stuff many fans have been clamoring for.  Mainly bringing extra guys on the pass rush and playing more man.  We have had 5 on the LoS and 3 LBs on the field more than anytime that I can remember in the McD era.  We will still drop out into coverage at times and sometimes drop a traditional rusher (DE/DT) and replace them with a non-traditional rusher (DB/LB). 

 

We saw some of this late in the season last year.  In that case it worked cause it was more of a wrinkle that teams didnt expect.  But by the chiefs game we were getting hit with mesh and we didnt know how to deal with that in man coverage.  This year teams seem to be expecting it more and I think thats why BAL is quick snapping the ball on us (though they do that with everyone a bit) and we are seeing more mesh concepts.  In the run game it can be tricky for a DE/DL that has coverage responsibilities if its a pass.  They need to process run to pass different than when they are rushing.  That difference can affect how they are fitting gaps.  You could say the same thing for LB/DBs that are also reading run to pass but now their pass responsibilities are to rush.  Then lastly we dont know who's better at doing these multiple things so i think we still have yet to optimize the players that will do fill those roles (though Hoecht will be all over Im sure based on his LAR tape).  I dont think we master a new defensive approach in a year but if we can settle in and be better at what we have done in the past (crazy post snap coverage spins while rushing 4) then we can be an above average defense.  But for now with injuries and not knowing whos best for what role we seem to struggle at times.  

 

hope that reveals my thoughts a bit more.  

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

Ahhh, beating George Seifert's record.  I always remember George Seifert because as a kid I was a huge Cornell football fan.  Seifert was fired as coach after two years with a record of 3-15.  Who knew he would go on to such great things at the NFL level?

[fergie's ire]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Its nothing radical, but has been stuff many fans have been clamoring for.  Mainly bringing extra guys on the pass rush and playing more man.  We have had 5 on the LoS and 3 LBs on the field more than anytime that I can remember in the McD era.  We will still drop out into coverage at times and sometimes drop a traditional rusher (DE/DT) and replace them with a non-traditional rusher (DB/LB). 

 

We saw some of this late in the season last year.  In that case it worked cause it was more of a wrinkle that teams didnt expect.  But by the chiefs game we were getting hit with mesh and we didnt know how to deal with that in man coverage.  This year teams seem to be expecting it more and I think thats why BAL is quick snapping the ball on us (though they do that with everyone a bit) and we are seeing more mesh concepts.  In the run game it can be tricky for a DE/DL that has coverage responsibilities if its a pass.  They need to process run to pass different than when they are rushing.  That difference can affect how they are fitting gaps.  You could say the same thing for LB/DBs that are also reading run to pass but now their pass responsibilities are to rush.  Then lastly we dont know who's better at doing these multiple things so i think we still have yet to optimize the players that will do fill those roles (though Hoecht will be all over Im sure based on his LAR tape).  I dont think we master a new defensive approach in a year but if we can settle in and be better at what we have done in the past (crazy post snap coverage spins while rushing 4) then we can be an above average defense.  But for now with injuries and not knowing whos best for what role we seem to struggle at times.  

 

hope that reveals my thoughts a bit more.  

Yes, I have been trying to find stats on blitz rates...this year vs last.  Seems they are doing more, but for some reason fans don't seem to notice a difference.  It might be because those blitzes are not getting home.  I even remember someone on this board posting that he wishes Bills would blitz corners like other teams do.  Well, I remember that Tre blitzed Tua...and whiffed.  I also seem to remember that there were several corner blitzes that were effective vs the run against the Jets.  The Bills are doing these things. It's just that they are bad at them and they are often out of position (particularly against Baltimore).  The hope is that they will learn and get better throughout the year.  The bye will help...as will getting players back.  So WILL they get better?  Hard to say and it might be really bad if they don't, but I don't think the Bills are playing it safe and doing the same old thing, which I appreciate.

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Yes, I have been trying to find stats on blitz rates...this year vs last.  Seems they are doing more, but for some reason fans don't seem to notice a difference.  It might be because those blitzes are not getting home.  I even remember someone on this board posting that he wishes Bills would blitz corners like other teams do.  Well, I remember that Tre blitzed Tua...and whiffed.  I also seem to remember that there were several corner blitzes that were effective vs the run against the Jets.  The Bills are doing these things. It's just that they are bad at them and they are often out of position (particularly against Baltimore).  The hope is that they will learn and get better throughout the year.  The bye will help...as will getting players back.  So WILL they get better?  Hard to say and it might be really bad if they don't, but I don't think the Bills are playing it safe and doing the same old thing, which I appreciate.

Miami was funny cause that was a game I didnt want the new scheme.  Our old approach of spinning coverage post snap has always been effective against Tua.  Thought we should have stuck with that versus going man and getting gashed on mesh or trying to keep up with the cheetah.  Corner blitz against the run was def a new wrinkle that i love.  Its interesting because its a more high risk high reward strategy.  I think that makes sense given how good our offense is.  We can make up for the risk when were on offense by scoring.  Also the high risk involves getting us the ball back quicker which gives more opportunity to overcome those issues.  I agree we are not great at it yet and am hopeful we settle in.  I also agree the bye is big for us to reflect on performance in different roles as well as get players back.  

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm sure Ray Davis can do it.

 

Honestly, have Josh kick it out of shotgun if it's close to midfield.

 

If you have the first team offense out there, the defense has to have their first team defense out there.

 

Josh can kick it down the field because there won't be a return man.  I'm confident he can roll that ball 35-40 yards down the field.

This is actually a pretty good idea, but it would never happen…if Josh got hurt trying to punt the ball…

[zow2]

This will probably be a close game for much of it.  The Bills right now are intentionally holding some things back offensively.  They don't want Allen running around and risking himself unless it's absolutely a second half emergency to get the W or close the game out.

 

I can see the Pats trying to play like Miami did.  Run the ball, control the clock and keep the Bills O off the field...., use the dump off passing game to convert short 3rd downs.   Maye will use his legs a bit.   

 

When the Bills rarely beat Brady/Belichek all those years we would go in there and give NE a tough game, I expect the same.  

 

 

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Frazier had his warts but I don't every recall there being these kind of widespread issues with preparation and recognition.

His defenses may not have always done what we wanted them to do, but at the bare minimum they did seem to know what they were doing.

OC's may have taken advantage of their passivity at times but there was never the kind of constant confusion we've been seeing out there since the minute the season started.

i will clarify that Frazier got the blame for the confusion on the final drive in KC. this was despite rumors (and what i have heard) persisting that mcdermott had been making play calls in that game when it was near the end. he took a very hands on approach to his coaching in that game, including the ST which caused the gaffe of the kicker and cover team not being on the same page.

 

fraziers teams were always vanilla defense with hyde and poyer locking it down. edmunds athletic ability was part of his success and helped cover those warts on his game but it was how frazier used everyone and tapped their potential to get the most out of them. especially our corners - which mcdermott got credit for.

Edited Tuesday at 06:20 PM by boyst

[ElMarko]

9 hours ago, Pete said:

They can’t stop the run, little pass rush, abhorrent tackling, third down stops are rare……

What does this have to do with Diggs “exploiting” the Bills’ secondary?

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, fergie's ire said:

Ahhh, beating George Seifert's record.  I always remember George Seifert because as a kid I was a huge Cornell football fan.  Seifert was fired as coach after two years with a record of 3-15.  Who knew he would go on to such great things at the NFL level?

Cornell has ‘huge football fans’? Who knew? 😉

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes I've been in favor of that idea. Score 35+ per game and just steamroll the competition. Make the defense practically irrelevant. The investments made over the past couple offseasons however tell you the team was expecting a different path to victory so I'd like to see those investments start to produce the desired result.

 

And what is that desired result? Never let the other team score? Not realistic. Make sure we score more and win. Let's look at the record the past few seasons. Hmmm.

 

Of course we want to keep doing that into February. And I would argue, since "13 seconds," our D put the offense in a position to win those final playoff games. 

Edited Tuesday at 07:09 PM by PromoTheRobot

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

I want this one, ladies and gentlemen.

 

I want this one, badly.

 

 

[Chandler#81]

 

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

And what is that desired result?

 

To be above average in red zone conversion rate and 3rd down conversion rate. Currently we rank 21st (63.64%) and 25th (42.00%) respectively in those metrics. Given the level of experience in the defensive coaching staff and the quantity of investments, I think it's reasonable to expect something like 50% and 35% respectively. Especially if our defense is designed to be bend don't break and intentionally allow rushing yards to defend against the big play. In a vacuum I'm fine with that philosophy but it needs to be complemented by strong situational defense. The timely turnovers are the one saving grace, I'll give them that.

[MiltonWaddams]

27 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Cornell has ‘huge football fans’? Who knew? 😉

Sounds like you should be a professor at Cor-not University!

[YattaOkasan]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To be above average in red zone conversion rate and 3rd down conversion rate. Currently we rank 21st (63.64%) and 25th (42.00%) respectively in those metrics. Given the level of experience in the defensive coaching staff and the quantity of investments, I think it's reasonable to expect something like 50% and 35% respectively. Especially if our defense is designed to be bend don't break and intentionally allow rushing yards to defend against the big play. In a vacuum I'm fine with that philosophy but it needs to be complemented by strong situational defense. The timely turnovers are the one saving grace, I'll give them that.

not unreasonable and would put us just above average for each.  Im not sure we are a bend dont break defense.  i think we are super opportunistic and getting the ball back to Josh Allen (in 3 plays no less) was often said this offseason.  If we are bend dont break then i agree RZ% would be much more important.  were like a weird hybrid cause we get so many TO's but also are pretty decent at preventing the big play (at least thats from years past).  

[Chandler#81]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/1469118111000350?fs=e&fs=e
 

Kincaid wipes out 3 Saints on Shakir’s fabulous TD catch & run.

[SoCal Deek]

37 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Sounds like you should be a professor at Cor-not University!

They do have an excellent School of Architecture. 

[Simon]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Cornell has ‘huge football fans’? Who knew? 😉

 

Probably a fat guy