Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[LVGrown]

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Because fans like to complain...

Agreed and many clearly don't watch any other football. 

 

The expectation is perfection ... score on every drive, stop the other team on every drive and its so frustrating that I avoid all social media during games because so many make it a miserable experience.

 

Any time I feel myself getting frustrated with the Bills I turn on ANY other game and I am quickly reminded how spoiled I am to be a Bills fan during this era.

[hondo in seattle]

2 minutes ago, LVGrown said:

Agreed and many clearly don't watch any other football. 

 

The expectation is perfection ... score on every drive, stop the other team on every drive and its so frustrating that I avoid all social media during games because so many make it a miserable experience.

 

Any time I feel myself getting frustrated with the Bills I turn on ANY other game and I am quickly reminded how spoiled I am to be a Bills fan during this era.

 

I admit I get frustrated at the Bills sometimes, particularly at Brady.  I believe he could scheme up and call a better downfield passing attack.  Or maybe he can't and needs to hire a passing game coordinator.   

 

But then I remind myself of the 6-3 games we've played in the past and the 2-win seasons and feel much better.

[Big Turk]

16 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I think Allen is being coached to be extremely conservative. A few examples:
 

- Multiple times on 3rd and long checking down and getting tackled short of the sticks.

- Eating the sack before the missed FG. Typical Allen would have escaped or tried to pass in the collapsing pocket, but that is riskier.
- Always taking the checkdown when WR are sent deep unless they are clearly open (no 50/50 balls, or throwing players open).

The people just quoting scores and saying everything is fine, I challenge you with the following scenarios:
- What happens in a game when the run game isn't working? It is absolutely going to happen.
- What happens as the season progresses, and teams start to adjust and shut down our short passing game (think the Texans game last season)?

For better or worse, the coaches have decided that negative plays are to be avoided at all costs on offense. It's worked out so far, but the team will have to show it can take risks consistently to win the SB.

 

Then they adapt, like they usually do.  But no need to go 100 mph when you are only traveling 5 minutes away.  Not understanding the season is a grind and you need to pace yourself early to ensure you are playing at your best and peaking late seems to be what a lot of people don't understand. It doesn't matter what they look like "NOW". Just win, get the 1 seed and the bye. It only matters what they look like in the playoffs and that they are peaking at the right time. Kansas City has made a living for 3 years of looking terrible in the regular season but still winning only to flip a switch in the playoffs and keep going to Super Bowls.

 

Bills score 30 points a game by rolling out of bed pretty much now.

Edited September 19 by Big Turk

[GASabresIUFan]

Do the Bills have a passing problem?  Hard to answer that question.  Since Brady became the OC, the Bills correctly moved to a more ball control offense.  More running, more balance, less turnovers and more wins. 
 

However they are scoring at record levels.  They had 12 RS games with 30 or more points last season and are 3 for 3 so far this season.  They even averaged 28 pts in the playoffs last year with one game over 30.   If there is a passing issue it’s not stopping this team.  
 

One reason I don’t think we are seeing many downfield throws is that scoring quickly is not our offense’s goal.  They won’t admit it, but part of the reason for the ball control offense is to protect our defense.  Our best O personnel are also geared for a ball control offense.  Our depth is in the RB and TE rooms.  Our best receivers are also inside players like Shakir and Moore, but even Coleman is better on shorter routes.  
 

That said, on a personal level I’d like to see more down field throws especially on 2nd and short.  However, until someone makes Brady incorporate that into the offense, I doubt we’ll see it.  
 

My hope is when Oliver, Hairston and Milano get healthy and Hoecht returns from suspension to upgrade the defense, Brady, Babich and McD will feel better about opening up the offense. 

Edited September 19 by GASabresIUFan

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen is way more then a "game manager" in this offense.  Case in point on one of the TD drives Dawkins held putting the Bills in a 1st & 20.  If Allen were just a game manager the drive would have been over and a couple of plays later the Bills punt.  Instead, on 1st down Allen runs for 19 yards creating a 2nd & 1 from a 1st & 20.

 

The threat of Allen, downfield & with his legs, makes D's play this offense differently.  A game manager doesn't present that level of threat and is more easily controlled by defenses.    

 

 

 

You took it too literal my friend.

[Dan]

I play fantasy football and only look at stat lines.   Whether the team wins, scoring 31 points is irrelevant. I need my players to be individual FF leaders.   There must be a problem.  Let’s fix what ain’t broke so I can talk trash to my sister.  

[DapperCam]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Then they adapt, like they usually do.  But no need to go 100 mph when you are only traveling 5 minutes away.  Not understanding the season is a grind and you need to pace yourself early to ensure you are playing at your best and peaking late seems to be what a lot of people don't understand. It doesn't matter what they look like "NOW". Just win, get the 1 seed and the bye. It only matters what they look like in the playoffs and that they are peaking at the right time. Kansas City has made a living for 3 years of looking terrible in the regular season but still winning only to flip a switch in the playoffs and keep going to Super Bowls.

 

Bills score 30 points a game by rolling out of bed pretty much now.

I'm not really convinced they can adapt if the short game gets shut down. There is no switch to flip if we have no downfield passing game. Let's say we are playing against KC in the playoffs at home and they have shut down our running and short passing game (fairly realistic scenario). My prediction there will be that the Bills will not be able to suddenly stretch the field. It will probably look like Allen throwing into extremely tight windows < 10 yards, and taking 3 plays to get a first down the entire game. That style of play has an extremely small margin for error.

I would like for them to work on the intermediate/deep passing game during the season. Maybe we'll see that later on.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I'm not really convinced they can adapt if the short game gets shut down. There is no switch to flip if we have no downfield passing game. Let's say we are playing against KC in the playoffs at home and they have shut down our running and short passing game (fairly realistic scenario). My prediction there will be that the Bills will not be able to suddenly stretch the field. It will probably look like Allen throwing into extremely tight windows < 10 yards, and taking 3 plays to get a first down the entire game. That style of play has an extremely small margin for error.

I would like for them to work on the intermediate/deep passing game during the season. Maybe we'll see that later on.

 

There is always a switch to flip and that's Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things.  If there "was no switch to flip" then teams would have figured out how to prevent us from averaging 30 points a game over the last 5 years (#1 in the NFL). That's a pretty huge sample size. You simply cannot take away everything with Allen playing QB. It's not possible.

 

If the Bills lose to the Chiefs it will be their defense as always that can't play anything close to the way they play the Chiefs in the regular season that costs us the game, because the offense plays as well or not better against them than they do in the regular season. You can't average allowing 20 points a game to a team in the regular season over 5 years and then allow 33+ points to them in the playoffs over the same time span. that doesn't even make sense how that happens.

Edited September 19 by Big Turk

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

When everything happens within 10 yards of the LOS the defenses will adjust. It will become harder to run and those windows tighter. You have to be able to stretch the field vertically to open everything up!! You can get away with that against Miami and New Orleans. When you’re battling KC/Baltimore in January, you can’t have Josh drop back, have time, and no one to throw to. The margin for error is miniscule in those big games.

 

And I don't think it shocks anyone that this is playing out again.  2025 isn't 2024, but there are some similarities to the start of this season with last.   

 

Thankfully, there's no Baltimore or Kansas City-level opponent to play anywhere soon.  I just wonder when defenses will adjust and if they do, even a lesser team, if Buffalo will have a bad game.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Do the Bills have a passing problem?  Hard to answer that question.  Since Brady became the OC, the Bills correctly moved to a more ball control offense.  More running, more balance, less turnovers and more wins. 
 

However they are scoring at record levels.  They had 12 RS games with 30 or more points last season and are 3 for 3 so far this season.  They even averaged 28 pts in the playoffs last year with one game over 30.   If there is a passing issue it’s not stopping this team.  
 

One reason I don’t think we are seeing many downfield throws is that scoring quickly is not our offense’s goal.  They won’t admit it, but part of the reason for the ball control offense is to protect our defense.  Our best O personnel are also geared for a ball control offense.  Our depth is in the RB and TE rooms.  Our best receivers are also inside players like Shakir and Moore, but even Coleman is better on shorter routes.  
 

That said, on a personal level I’d like to see more down field throws especially on 2nd and short.  However, until someone makes Brady incorporate that into the offense, I doubt we’ll see it.  
 

My hope is when Oliver, Hairston and Milano get healthy and Hoecht returns from suspension to upgrade the defense, Brady, Babich and McD will feel better about opening up the offense. 

 

I think two divisional games in 5 days, against two teams who's best defenders are either pass rushers or corners, is always going to set up a week of boring offense. 

 

Best way to slow guys like Chubb, Phillips, and Sieler?  Run it, ball out quick, make guys tackle, and avoid turnovers.  

[Buffalo4Life01]

What happened at Baltimore and at the Texans last year where Josh played about as poorly in a 2 game stretch as he has his entire career is what happens when a defense takes away the deep stuff and invites you to to take the short stuff but you refuse to take it.  Last night is what happens when Josh is patient and takes what the defense gives him.  This is exactly how the Chiefs passing game has looked for large stretches of time over the last several years.  Fans get so enamored with 350 yard passing games but the only thing that matters is scoring one more point than your opponent and getting another W in the win column.

Go Bills!!  

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

And I don't think it shocks anyone that this is playing out again.  2025 isn't 2024, but there are some similarities to the start of this season with last.   

 

Thankfully, there's no Baltimore or Kansas City-level opponent to play anywhere soon.  I just wonder when defenses will adjust and if they do, even a lesser team, if Buffalo will have a bad game.  

That’s a great question. I think that the development of Cook into a star, along with elite OL play, probably still keeps the Bills from getting totally bottled up against a bad team. They could certainly drop a game to a bad team but it would probably have to be like 31-24. I don’t see any situations where bad teams hold the Bills under 3 or 4 scores. 

[DapperCam]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

There is always a switch to flip and that's Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things.  If there "was no switch to flip" then teams would have figured out how to prevent us from averaging 30 points a game over the last 5 years. That's a pretty huge sample size. You simply cannot take away everything with Allen playing QB. It's not possible.

We have only been playing this ball control offense for 1 season + 3 games, so that is the only sample size that is relevant for this topic. There have been stretches in games against good defenses (what we will likely see in the playoffs) where the offense is completely stalled out. Some examples:

- In the 2nd half of the Ravens playoff games the Bills scored zero TDs and 2 FGs. One of those drives started at midfield due to a fumble. The other one we only gained 37 yards on the drive. We had no ability to complete passes down the field this entire game for the most part.
- In the 2nd half of the Chiefs playoff game we did score 2 TDs, but also had 2 turnovers on downs. One that led to a KC TD and another that ended the game. We only had 3 pass attempts this half that weren't at the line of scrimmage. One great throw to Hollins down the seam, and 2 incomplete (including the Kincaid pass that ended the game). If we could pass down the field we probably at least tie the game on that final drive.
- In the Texans game last season they shut everything down short and Allen was passing deep/intermediate with no success all game.

I think it's a legit concern that we have a weakness that can be exploited, even if every team can't exploit it. Partially it is play calling/philosophy, and partially it is that WRs can't get open down field or catch the ball.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s a great question. I think that the development of Cook into a star, along with elite OL play, probably still keeps the Bills from getting totally bottled up against a bad team. They could certainly drop a game to a bad team but it would probably have to be like 31-24. I don’t see any situations where bad teams hold the Bills under 3 or 4 scores. 

That and Josh basically not turning it over any more. 

 

Bad teams can hang with good teams with a couple TOs. Josh playing this way makes it a million times harder for the Bills to drop one that they shouldn't.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That and Josh basically not turning it over any more. 

 

Bad teams can hang with good teams with a couple TOs. Josh playing this way makes it a million times harder for the Bills to drop one that they shouldn't.

Excellent point

 

It almost feels like they are very aware of that as well. They had a couple of play calls last night that had me screaming. At the same time, it is partially because if they don’t make a mistake, Miami can’t keep trading punches with them. That’s what I think the Bills believe.

Edited September 19 by Kirby Jackson

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

We have only been playing this ball control offense for 1 season + 3 games, so that is the only sample size that is relevant for this topic. There have been stretches in games against good defenses (what we will likely see in the playoffs) where the offense is completely stalled out. Some examples:

- In the 2nd half of the Ravens playoff games the Bills scored zero TDs and 2 FGs. One of those drives started at midfield due to a fumble. The other one we only gained 37 yards on the drive. We had no ability to complete passes down the field this entire game for the most part.
- In the 2nd half of the Chiefs playoff game we did score 2 TDs, but also had 2 turnovers on downs. One that led to a KC TD and another that ended the game. We only had 3 pass attempts this half that weren't at the line of scrimmage. One great throw to Hollins down the seam, and 2 incomplete (including the Kincaid pass that ended the game). If we could pass down the field we probably at least tie the game on that final drive.
- In the Texans game last season they shut everything down short and Allen was passing deep/intermediate with no success all game.

I think it's a legit concern that we have a weakness that can be exploited, even if every team can't exploit it. Partially it is play calling/philosophy, and partially it is that WRs can't get open down field or catch the ball.

 

It's not irrelevant because Allen still can do all the other things from the different seasons, he just doesn't by default any more. Sure if we want to cherry pick various situations sometimes things happen...the other team is a group of professionals as well. "Stopped" on 4th downs was more thanks to the refs suddenly being unable to spot the ball properly for the entire game with the Bills on offense. It was so obvious and egregious to even casual fans and caused such a firestorm that the NFL had to put chips in the ball to ensure spots were accurate.

53 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

They scored 31.  Had a missed FG.  Miami was trying to play keep away on offense.  This Sunday count how many teams score over 30.  It’s not as common as you think. B offensive performance and they get 30.  Thats pretty crazy to think about. They still won by 10. 

 

Would have been 13 if not for a missed chip shot by Prater that was shanked about as badly as possible on a kick.

[BillsShredder83]

11 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

They act as if we have Jared Goff as a QB, we could go up 21 points and make teams 1 dimensional but we have a bunch of conservative coaches and it's quite frustrating. We won a miracle game week 1 , we faced Fields in week 2 and it took a roughing the kicker call to turn this game around for us. So far I've been underwhelmed with coaching on both sides of the ball and if we play like this in the playoffs we won't make it to yet another SB. 

Im coming around to others stating this is a philosophy of keep away/mistake free football.... but this is exactly what im talking about to those "WEVE AVERAGED THE MOST POINTS" people.  Im far from freaking out.  I can see why this strategy has its appeal.... at the same time, we are not great or even good against the run.

 

The best way to compliment this, is to open it up a bit early.  Allow the offense to get in some rhythm, check that box off, get some earlier quick points, and slam the door on teams running the ball on us.  It also allows our developing pass rush DT's + Solomon to get some extra pass rush reps, and hopefully develop that angle of their game quicker.

 

TL:DR Open it up 1.5 Quarters to start game.  Pour on some points.  Take away teams abilities to hang by running the ball.  Let Bosa & Co pin their ears back.  Get that early padding, THEN we can throw it in our cruise control mistake free, Triple TE formations rest of game if we decide.

[JohninMinn.]

Josh is aging and the window is slowly closing. Pumping the gas pedal is a good strategy. December, January and February is when it gets real.

[DapperCam]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

It's not irrelevant because Allen still can do all the other things from the different seasons, he just doesn't by default any more. Sure if we want to cherry pick various situations sometimes things happen...the other team is a group of professionals as well. "Stopped" on 4th downs was more thanks to the refs suddenly being unable to spot the ball properly for the entire game with the Bills on offense. It was so obvious and egregious to even casual fans and caused such a firestorm that the NFL had to put chips in the ball to ensure spots were accurate.

 

Would have been 13 if not for a missed chip shot by Prater that was shanked about as badly as possible on a kick.

I don't think it's really cherry picking. Who cares what the offense did with Daboll or Dorsey? 90% of the players are different now, the OC is different and all of the assistants are different. We also run a completely different offense, it isn't like Brady is a "spiritual successor" of his predecessors. This current version of the Bills offense has not shown the ability to pass the ball intermediate/deep consistently and that has hurt us in games against good defenses. It allowed the Ravens to come back last playoffs, and it prevented the Bills from hanging with KC in the AFCCG. It will likely hurt us again this season unless they can figure something out.

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I don't think it's really cherry picking. Who cares what the offense did with Daboll or Dorsey? 90% of the players are different now, the OC is different and all of the assistants are different. We also run a completely different offense, it isn't like Brady is a "spiritual successor" of his predecessors. This current version of the Bills offense has not shown the ability to pass the ball intermediate/deep consistently and that has hurt us in games against good defenses. It allowed the Ravens to come back last playoffs, and it prevented the Bills from hanging with KC in the AFCCG. It will likely hurt us again this season unless they can figure something out.

 

From "hanging"? The Bills had a 64% of winning the game with 13:45 left in the 4th. Are you trying to re-imagine a game that did not happen? That decidedly does not sound like they couldn't "hang" with them, and were tied at 29 with 3.5 minutes to go in the 4th.  As always, the defense that plays one way against KC in the regular season but completely differently in the playoffs rears it's ugly head.  Of course, the only time KC scored more than 30 points all year was against the Bills in the playoffs.

Edited September 19 by Big Turk