Well, another worthless stat..total QBR

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 38 up by 2 would be insanity.  Noi coach in his right mind would risk not getting 3 yards & basically already giving his opponent field goal range from their own 40 rather than making Josh start at the Bills own 20 with 1:33 left.  It was 4th & 3, not 4th & inches. 

Then we are in total disagreement.

 

If my offense dropped 40 on you and basically moved up & down the field all game long (minus a couple drives) I am betting on them to get 3 measly yards. 
 

The alternative is to give to Josh Allen & the Bills with all momentum going their way ? I go for it every single time without a second thought. 

[mjd1001]

13 hours ago, julian said:

I just like to let my eyes tell me everything I need to know about a performance on the field.

 

 I’m still treating my NFL viewing experience like it’s 1987, before we needed nerds with calculators to tell us who is better than who.

I agree.

 

I don't know if the nerds with calculators give 'clutch' situations any more weight than non clutch. If they don't, they need to. If they already do, they need to up the weigting.

 

A great play in the 4th quarter when down by a score should be worth more than a similar (or even slightly better play) when you are up comfortablly in the 2nd or early 3rd quarter.

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I don't think it's Lamar who has been smug towards Josh.  It's his fanboys in the media who have been the ones who overrated Lamar over Josh.  

Yes, sorry, I meant smug about Josh winning the award.  Just saying reality bit him in the ass, if he didn't appreciate why Josh won MVP over him last year.

 

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-josh-allen-mvp-vote-contract-isaiah-likely-charlie-kolar-2025

 

"The voters chose who they wanted to pick," Jackson said. "It is what it is. It is what it is."

5 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 38 up by 2 would be insanity.  Noi coach in his right mind would risk not getting 3 yards & basically already giving his opponent field goal range from their own 40 rather than making Josh start at the Bills own 20 with 1:33 left.  It was 4th & 3, not 4th & inches. 

Sometimes not.  I believe if we were playing the Chiefs, and the Bills were in the Ravens situation, McDermott would go for it.  And I would applaud him even if it failed.  Deny Mahomes the last possession in a 3 point or less game.  13 seconds says hello.

[BUFFALOBART]

16 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Just came across this on ESPN site. According to that metric, Allen had the 11th best statistical QB performance for the weekend...which shows some flaws in the system. For those of you keeping track, Jackson finished #1.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Allen = 251 fourth quarter yards passing. Who gives a F, about QBR?

[hondo in seattle]

18 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Just came across this on ESPN site. According to that metric, Allen had the 11th best statistical QB performance for the weekend...which shows some flaws in the system. For those of you keeping track, Jackson finished #1.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

 

QBR has had some other weird anomalies over the years.  I probably like it less than 'passer rating' but don't like either one.

[hondo in seattle]

11 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

**sigh** How many times are we going to have to go over this?  It's a really simple and straight forward calculation:

 

The NFL passer rating equation involves calculating four separate values (a, b, c, and d) based on completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions relative to attempts, and then applying the formula ((a + b + c + d) / 6) * 100, where each intermediate value is capped between 0 and 2.375.  

Step-by-step Calculation:

Adjust values:

If any of the calculated values (a, b, c, or d) is greater than 2.375, set it to 2.375. 

If any of the values is negative, set it to 0. 

Apply the final formula:

Passer Rating = ((a + b + c + d) / 6) × 100 

Calculate intermediate values:

d = 2.375 - (Interceptions / Attempts) × 25 

a = ((Completions / Attempts) - 0.3) × 5 

b = ((Passing Yards / Attempts) - 3) × 0.25 

c = (Touchdown Passes / Attempts) × 20 

Apply the final formula:

Passer Rating = ((a + b + c + d) / 6) × 100 

Adjust values:

If any of the calculated values (a, b, c, or d) is greater than 2.375, set it to 2.375. 

If any of the values is negative, set it to 0. 

 

(Thanks Google AI)

 

Here's the problem... Passer rating evaluates efficiency, not contribution.  

 

Imagine this game...  We're playing a team with a great O line and All-Pros at the skill positions.  But their starting QB and his backup are both hurt.  The Head Coach has zero confidence in the 3rd-stringer and only allows him to throw 6 passes during the game - all screens against a D that doesn't respect the QB and only worries about the run game.  The QB's stat line is 4-6 for 40 yards with zero picks and zero TDs.

 

Meanwhile, Josh goes 40 for 60 for 400 yards against a D that's intensely focused on stopping him, moves the team up and down the field, rushes for 4 TDs, and leads his team to a 34-0 victory.  Despite his heroics, Josh's passer rating will be the same as the scrub's.  They both had the same completion, interception, and TD percentage, as well as the same yards per attempt. 

 

That's crazy.    

[colin]

I'm a big effeciency stat fan, but these analytics were made to tell the story that production alone does not.

 

What they don't do, is entirely replace production.

 

Allen produced a career day for most QBs, and an absolutely solid day in the 4th quarter alone.

 

Lamar was more efficient but he dropped back like 22 times, and a ton of contribution to his team came in that magic sack avoiding (20yard loss sack at that) scramble on 3rd and 10.

 

The ravens crushed us on every single non scoring metric, except time of possession and total plays/yards.  If Allen threw a couple extra incompletes between big passes to get us down the field for the go ahead score, or if keon ran it in with the clock expiring vs the kick, that would impact his efficiency numbers but would mean didly squat in the context of winning the game.

[LabattBlue]

I wonder how "worthless" the QBR ratings would be if Josh rushed for 80 yards and had the #1 QBR rating?

[Thurman#1]

On 9/10/2025 at 3:44 PM, GoBills808 said:

passer rating is a dinosaur

 

 

Still better than QBR.

[Freak-O]

The first half felt like a lot of Bills three and out so Josh not having fantastic stats is no surprise. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

On 9/10/2025 at 2:44 AM, GoBills808 said:

passer rating is a dinosaur

FF points is a better rating 😁

[JESSEFEFFER]

The biggest flaws of the traditional passer rating are the total whiff it makes on "sack avoidance" and the impact of QB runs.  Since it totally ignores any play where the ball did not leave the QBs hand with a forward motion, sacks (and strip sacks) scrambles and designed runs and ball security do not matter one bit.  Avoid a sack and throw the ball away to save the yardage and it hurts passer rating because the completion % goes down.  This is how Rob Johnson's passer rating stayed relatively high.  Take the sack, lose the yardage, kill the drive, piss the OL off but passer rating is not affected.  Also, passer rating does not take into account the game situation where these passing only stats are accumulated.

 

Total QBR tries to account for every QB play, the game situation and the impact it had.  That alone makes it a better metric but it has its mystery meat components.  Up until those last two passes of the first half, Josh wasn't really impacting the game much. 

 

The fascinating part of this is the Bills continue to try to balance how much Josh Allen to insert into the offense. and when.  The Ken Dorsey approach (too much Josh, all the time, which leads to more mistakes and exposes the defense) or the Joe Brady approach where there are more plays called that do not ask him to be special and tries to protect the defense but you end up with back to back 3 and outs which puts your team behind.

[SoTier]

18 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

Argh...my ADD got me there.  Thought we were discussing actual quarterback rating, not QBR.  As for the total QBR, looks like Josh probably got dinged for his rushing ypc and just the pure amount of "plays" the he was credited with? 

 

No, it didn't.  The original thread was about QB rating.  A second thread about QBR was also created, and then the two were merged, so posters are discussing QB rating, QBR, and both.

 

12 hours ago, colin said:

I'm a big effeciency stat fan, but these analytics were made to tell the story that production alone does not.

 

What they don't do, is entirely replace production.

 

Allen produced a career day for most QBs, and an absolutely solid day in the 4th quarter alone.

 

Lamar was more efficient but he dropped back like 22 times, and a ton of contribution to his team came in that magic sack avoiding (20yard loss sack at that) scramble on 3rd and 10.

 

The ravens crushed us on every single non scoring metric, except time of possession and total plays/yards.  If Allen threw a couple extra incompletes between big passes to get us down the field for the go ahead score, or if keon ran it in with the clock expiring vs the kick, that would impact his efficiency numbers but would mean didly squat in the context of winning the game.

 

What QB stats can't measure is what are frequently called "intangibles", the special abilities that some QBs have that separate them from equally and, sometimes, even more talented, QBs.  Josh Allen has always had leadership and will-to-win in spades, even in his rookie season when he wasn't a particularly great passer.

[djp14150]

On 9/10/2025 at 8:23 AM, fergie's ire said:

**sigh** How many times are we going to have to go over this?  It's a really simple and straight forward calculation:

 

The NFL passer rating equation involves calculating four separate values (a, b, c, and d) based on completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions relative to attempts, and then applying the formula ((a + b + c + d) / 6) * 100, where each intermediate value is capped between 0 and 2.375.  

Step-by-step Calculation:

Adjust values:

If any of the calculated values (a, b, c, or d) is greater than 2.375, set it to 2.375. 

If any of the values is negative, set it to 0. 

Apply the final formula:

Passer Rating = ((a + b + c + d) / 6) × 100 

Calculate intermediate values:

d = 2.375 - (Interceptions / Attempts) × 25 

a = ((Completions / Attempts) - 0.3) × 5 

b = ((Passing Yards / Attempts) - 3) × 0.25 

c = (Touchdown Passes / Attempts) × 20 

Apply the final formula:

Passer Rating = ((a + b + c + d) / 6) × 100 

Adjust values:

If any of the calculated values (a, b, c, or d) is greater than 2.375, set it to 2.375. 

If any of the values is negative, set it to 0. 

 

(Thanks Google AI)

This is not the espn QB rating system. This is the old one.

 

it does not factor in QB mobility/ ability to run, how much they throw vs rely on YAC, scramble to create plays , their short play running, fumble risk, or sack/ yards loss risk.

[Ayjent]

17 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

Yes, sorry, I meant smug about Josh winning the award.  Just saying reality bit him in the ass, if he didn't appreciate why Josh won MVP over him last year.

 

https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/lamar-jackson-josh-allen-mvp-vote-contract-isaiah-likely-charlie-kolar-2025

 

"The voters chose who they wanted to pick," Jackson said. "It is what it is. It is what it is."

Sometimes not.  I believe if we were playing the Chiefs, and the Bills were in the Ravens situation, McDermott would go for it.  And I would applaud him even if it failed.  Deny Mahomes the last possession in a 3 point or less game.  13 seconds says hello.

And he benefitted from the reverse the year before when Josh had better stats but Lamar won MVP. Its a valid critique but equally applicable to the past 2 MVPs. 

[hondo in seattle]

Zach Wilson vs. Joe Burrow (2021)

 

Zach Wilson: 14/22 for 102 yards, 1 passing TD, 91 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
→ QBR: 92.4

 

Joe Burrow: 37/46 for 525 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs (historic day)
→ QBR: 89.3

 

Huh?

[Albany,n.y.]

20 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Then we are in total disagreement.

 

If my offense dropped 40 on you and basically moved up & down the field all game long (minus a couple drives) I am betting on them to get 3 measly yards. 
 

The alternative is to give to Josh Allen & the Bills with all momentum going their way ? I go for it every single time without a second thought. 

Momentum?  If the Bills had all the momentum, then they would have definitely stopped the Ravens before they could have gotten 3 yards.  Less than a minute & a half, no time outs, starting at their own 20.  99% of all coaches punt rather than risking the game for a shot at making 3 yards on 4th down. I bet the analytics say punt 100% of the time. 

It's a lot different if you're up by more than 3, or if it's 4th & inches.  Baltimore was up by 2. If they don't make it, it's almost guaranteed they lose the game on a late field goal. Punting was the only thing they could do.

Let's agree to disagree, but I'd bet on every coach punting in that situation unless it's late in the season & his team is already eliminated from the playoffs or their playoff spot is locked in & cannot be improved.    

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Momentum?  If the Bills had all the momentum, then they would have definitely stopped the Ravens before they could have gotten 3 yards.  Less than a minute & a half, no time outs, starting at their own 20.  99% of all coaches punt rather than risking the game for a shot at making 3 yards on 4th down. I bet the analytics say punt 100% of the time. 

It's a lot different if you're up by more than 3, or if it's 4th & inches.  Baltimore was up by 2. If they don't make it, it's almost guaranteed they lose the game on a late field goal. Punting was the only thing they could do.

Let's agree to disagree, but I'd bet on every coach punting in that situation unless it's late in the season & his team is already eliminated from the playoffs or their playoff spot is locked in & cannot be improved.    

If that’s what the analytics say then they need to invent an entirely new formula for Josh Allen because he continues to defy the odds. I understand your point, but you won’t even consider mine.
 

You have a 2 time MVP QB and a HOF RB. All you need is 3 yards to pick up the first down and ice the game. Your offense has been successful albeit an uncharacteristical (idk if that’s even a Fing word) fumble by Henry and a couple stalled drives.
 

Your other option is to kick to a red hot Bills offense who just put up nearly 250 yards of offense on you in ONE quarter and you’re  on the ROAD. Come on, man. 🤦‍♂️ 

Edited September 11 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

If that’s what the analytics say then they need to invent an entirely new formula for Josh Allen because he continues to defy the odds. I understand your point, but you won’t even consider mine.
 

You have a 2 time MVP QB and a HOF RB. All you need is 3 yards to pick up the first down and ice the game. Your offense has been successful albeit an uncharacteristical (idk if that’s even a Fing word) fumble by Henry and a couple stalled drives.
 

Your other option is to kick to a red hot Bills offense who just put up nearly 250 yards of offense on you in ONE quarter and you’re  on the ROAD. Come on, man. 🤦‍♂️ 

The ball was at the 38 yard line.  When was the last time you saw a team on their own 38 with a 2 point or 1 point lead risk immediately putting a team in FG range with about 1 1/2 minutes left on the clock needing 3 yards for a 1st down?  If you can find one where the team went for 3 yards at that point of the game & succeeded, let me know. The only coach I've seen do stuff like that was Staley with the LA Chargers & stuff like that got him fired.  

Edit:

I looked up something & I was wrong on the analytics.  I can see your point on this basis, but I still can't agree: 

After the game, analytics showed that the move to punt was the incorrect one. ESPN Analytics calculated that the Ravens' win probability was 81.4% if they had gone for it on fourth down, but dropped to 73.2% when they punted. The second-guessing in this specific situation shows why a coach would consider going for it, even in such a dangerous position. 

 

Edited September 11 by Albany,n.y.

[LABILLBACKER]

There needs to be some type of a hybrid rating that uses mostly qb rating but does factor in rushing stats, tds & turnovers.