Bills cuts discussion

[RobbRiddick]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have to have three monitors open and go back and forth between cuts, discussion about cuts, and Travis Kelce’s nuptials. It is a lot.

Man who update cut thread with chopstick accomplish anything

[Matt_In_NH]

17 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Obviously you do not realize that only about 17-28% of third round picks in the NFL become starters (depending on whose number you use). Singletary was a starter for four years. So you are doubly wrong. Singletary would fall into the 17-28%, which means he was better than 72-83% of other 3rd round picks across the league. 

 

Most teams average just 1.7 four+-year starters per draft (out of 7-10 picks generally). So, if you get 2 long-term starters from a draft, you are above the curve. So, again, shows you that not all 2nd and 3rd rounders (or first for that matter) become starters.

 

"From a team standpoint, if just one of your draft picks is extended in a second contract, that is an average draft. Extending two is a good draft, and 3 or more extraordinarily good." [This is a quote from the last link below.]

 

This idea that other teams (or at least all of the best teams) are crushing their 2nd and 3rd round picks (hitting on starters every year in those rounds) and that Beane sucks is just not reality. Try looking at other team's drafts in comparison (noting where they are drafting as well) if you want to truly assess Beane's drafting. But to only look at our picks (and with unrealistic expectations) is not a good way to assess our GM.

 

Also, I'd like to address this idea of impact players. In the last link below, a guy did a study of 1996-2016 and broke players down into tiers. Only 1% of draftees became legendary and only 6.9% of draftees become great. That is kind of what people are looking for in relation to "impact" players. Yet, only 7.9% of total drafted players reach that status. [In a draft of approx. 230 players, that means only 18 players will be "impact" players---so basically half of the teams each year do not get an "impact"---pro bowl level player.] And then, only 12.3% fall into the good (above average) category...which I don't think people would categorize as "impact" players. Next come the JAGs, the average players. They make up another 10.5%. So, only about 30% of drafted players overall become average or better and only about 20% of drafted players become above average. [The article is from 2022 and he did look to see if things changed from the earlier data until then, but he said the numbers were still pretty much the same---up to 2022.]

 

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/

 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/f/2022/7/13/23206891/where-was-the-average-nfl-offensive-starter-drafted-by-position

 

https://www.thehogsty.com/2025/04/21/updated-the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

 

 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

Stop giving this guy facts, he has opinions that matter!

Edited Tuesday at 07:57 PM by Matt_In_NH

[Captain_Quint]

1 minute left......

 

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

We’re not allowed to question the amazing Brandon Beane, he drafted Josh Allen when the WGR guys said not to, so he gets a free pass on every decision he makes remember?
 

We don’t need WRs fellas, we’ve got to draft multiple average D lineman every year for our amazing D that shows up every playoff against KC…No need to find a few playmakers who can develop cheap with Josh and maybe get some separation and make a clutch catch in crunch time. We trust you Beane 🙄

Nick, Nick, Nick, get yourself a glass of warm milk, a cookie, and take yourself a nice little nap, you’ll feel much better when you wake up, 

[folz]

40 minutes ago, Trust The Process said:

Tell that to Eagles GM Howie Roseman and Ravens GM Eric DeCosta just to name a few teams who draft late like us every season. Unlike Beane, those GM's find blue chip talent way more than Beane does

 

The Eagles are not a good comparison. Over the last 5 years, the average draft position of their first three picks is 47. The Bills average draft position of their first three picks over the same years is 66. That is quite a difference I would say. Plus, in that time, the Bills highest draft pick was 23. The Eagles have had 5 draft picks higher than 23 over that span, with three picks in the top thirteen (9, 10, and 13). Apples to oranges my friend.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

omg it is 4

[RoscoeParrish]

2 minutes ago, folz said:

 

The Eagles are not a good comparison. Over the last 5 years, the average draft position of their first three picks is 47. The Bills average draft position of their first three picks over the same years is 66. That is quite a difference I would say. Plus, in that time, the Bills highest draft pick was 23. The Eagles have had 5 draft picks higher than 23 over that span, with three picks in the top thirteen (9, 10, and 13). Apples to oranges my friend.

Beane and McD have been here longer than 5 years. 

[Goin Breakdown]

42 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

This is a thread for discussing Bills cuts only; not posting what the cuts are

It is for folks who just want to pop in and enjoy knee jerk reactions about what the cuts might be, without wading through the actual cuts.

To see the actual cuts please use the cuts thread, not this one.

This is great!! The funny thing is we are on a message board in the middle of the day. Seems like weeding through a thread isn't affecting our schedules. idk just my dumb thoughts lol. 

Edited Tuesday at 08:24 PM by Goin Breakdown

[NeverOutNick]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Nick, Nick, Nick, get yourself a glass of warm milk, a cookie, and take yourself a nice little nap, you’ll feel much better when you wake up, 

Thanks brother the cookie helped. We still have Josh 😊 

[TBBills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have to have three monitors open and go back and forth between cuts, discussion about cuts, and Travis Kelce’s nuptials. It is a lot.

You aren't ambidextrous, and that's okay.  

[balln]

2 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Thanks brother the cookie helped. We still have Josh 😊 

What kind of cookie

[RiotAct]

19 minutes ago, balln said:

Schopp is absolutely brutal on the air now. Talking about nothing. Cuts mean nothing 

so, business as usual over on WGR???

[balln]

Just now, RiotAct said:

so, business as usual over on WGR???

Now we get Sal to tell us more obvious things 

[TBBills Fan]

12 minutes ago, Captain_Quint said:

1 minute left......

 

This is bull####

 

Beane sleeping at the wheel

[NickelCity]

 

[VW82]

Good for Shavers. It's an important story for McBeane, Bills culture.  

[NickelCity]

Where are the rest of the cuts/trades already 🙄

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

6 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

 

Honestly he earned it

[boyst]

I know it's not been verified yet, so you'll have to trust me my sources. Bills did not cut Josh Allen. He makes the team in 2025!

[Matt_In_NH]

4 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

Where are the rest of the cuts/trades already 🙄

It takes til 5 or 6 tupically