Bills cuts discussion

[folz]

3 hours ago, Trust The Process said:

AJ Epenesa has only 21.5 sacks in 5 seasons which averages out to be only 4.3 sacks per season which means he's just another guy and not worth a premium 2nd round pick (54th overall). Just because Epenesa got an extension doesn't make Epenesa a good draft pick, bad stats don't lie.

 

As far as Singletary goes, 3rd round picks should be starters not backups. Singletary is a backup.

 

Obviously you do not realize that only about 17-28% of third round picks in the NFL become starters (depending on whose number you use). Singletary was a starter for four years. So you are doubly wrong. Singletary would fall into the 17-28%, which means he was better than 72-83% of other 3rd round picks across the league. 

 

Most teams average just 1.7 four+-year starters per draft (out of 7-10 picks generally). So, if you get 2 long-term starters from a draft, you are above the curve. So, again, shows you that not all 2nd and 3rd rounders (or first for that matter) become starters.

 

"From a team standpoint, if just one of your draft picks is extended in a second contract, that is an average draft. Extending two is a good draft, and 3 or more extraordinarily good." [This is a quote from the last link below.]

 

This idea that other teams (or at least all of the best teams) are crushing their 2nd and 3rd round picks (hitting on starters every year in those rounds) and that Beane sucks is just not reality. Try looking at other team's drafts in comparison (noting where they are drafting as well) if you want to truly assess Beane's drafting. But to only look at our picks (and with unrealistic expectations) is not a good way to assess our GM.

 

Also, I'd like to address this idea of impact players. In the last link below, a guy did a study of 1996-2016 and broke players down into tiers. Only 1% of draftees became legendary and only 6.9% of draftees become great. That is kind of what people are looking for in relation to "impact" players. Yet, only 7.9% of total drafted players reach that status. [In a draft of approx. 230 players, that means only 18 players will be "impact" players---so basically half of the teams each year do not get an "impact"---pro bowl level player.] And then, only 12.3% fall into the good (above average) category...which I don't think people would categorize as "impact" players. Next come the JAGs, the average players. They make up another 10.5%. So, only about 30% of drafted players overall become average or better and only about 20% of drafted players become above average. [The article is from 2022 and he did look to see if things changed from the earlier data until then, but he said the numbers were still pretty much the same---up to 2022.]

 

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/

 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/f/2022/7/13/23206891/where-was-the-average-nfl-offensive-starter-drafted-by-position

 

https://www.thehogsty.com/2025/04/21/updated-the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

 

 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

[gonzo1105]

4 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

It is interesting to see the numbers at WR and DT, makes me think those are positions Beane might be having conversations with other teams about.

 

Yea I think WR(If Samuel or Moore) OL: Van DeMark and DT: Carter  are all trade possibilities down the stretch.

 

Obviously I also didn't include Hoecht or Ogunjobi because they are suspended but I suppose its possible they cut Ogunjobi as well. 

[billybob71]

Gonna be some upset posters on here in the next 20 mins

[RobbRiddick]

This is a thread for discussing Bills cuts only; not posting what the cuts are

It is for folks who just want to pop in and enjoy knee jerk reactions about what the cuts might be, without wading through the actual cuts.

To see the actual cuts please use the cuts thread, not this one.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

10 minutes ago, Special K said:

I  just think Strong outplayed Jackson, and even if it was a tie, the Bills would still go with the younger player on a rookie contract. Jackson will probably make it to the Practice Squad if they want him there.

 

Jackson was bad enough in 2023 to the point that they traded for Douglas.  Consistently beaten down field to the point that coverage needed to be shaded to him, and late to the catch point on a number of third down completions beyond the sticks.  Just not a very good player, even if he's squeezed out a decent career.  

[Special K]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yeah, it's hard to know what went on with Motor.  He played out his rookie deal on the Bills with 3000+ yds which is value for a 3rd rounder.

On the other hand, the Bills clearly weren't overall happy with him or they wouldn't have drafted Moss and then used a 2nd on James Cook in the last year of that deal.

 

I do have to say overall during his tenure here, the OCs committment to the run game is best described as "tenuous" or perhaps "nonexistant".  Hard to tell which came first there - the lack of quality player personnel to depend upon in the run game, or the poor design and execution of run plays to fit with the skills of the players.  

 

You would have a more reasoned opinion there than I could.

 

 

I could be mistaken, but I didn't think they were grooming them for the same roles?  Or was Strong playing boundary?  

 

I thought they had Strong playing nickel and dime back.

 

I think you are thinking of Hancock.....he was the one in the S/Nickel role.....Strong is strictly a boundary corner just like Jackson.

[Don Otreply]

5 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I get it that Beane drafted Hairston and he got hurt, but right now the secondary is a flaming disaster. Like season altering disaster.  As it stands now what are we looking at, Ingram starting at CB#2? Lewis as CB#3? 

Time to trade some future draft picks and get someone that can play CB. 

Hoping a broken down White and a rookie who hasn't played in weeks is the answer at CB is pure negligence. And that doesn't even address the safety issue where at best there is great uncertainty with Bishop. Maybe he plays well which would be a welcome surprise. 

 

The rookie DL looks good so far. Props for him addressing the DL. Even if Carter looks like a bust and we have to wait 6 weeks for Hoecht to play, the kids look ready to contribute. 

 

Win now at all costs. Go find a competent CB#2. 

 

Ethan, “Flaming disaster “ is a bit over the top, although well within your wheelhouse, none of this is that big of an issue, calm down my man, people in the know are making informed decisions, unlike the entire fan base, we fans are just a group of posers when it comes to knowing what is actually going on, 

[SoonerBillsFan]

14 more minutes

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

14 more minutes

 

Some years they aren't released for an additional 30 or so. 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

14 more minutes

 

 

may not hear the official releases until close to 6pm 

[balln]

Schopp is absolutely brutal on the air now. Talking about nothing. Cuts mean nothing 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Some years they aren't released for an additional 30 or so. 

 

Would IR decisions be reported right away though?

[boyst]

Just now, balln said:

Schopp is absolutely brutal on the air now. Talking about nothing. Cuts mean nothing 

you missed this morning talking about golf a lot and then talking about matt damon i think it was for an hour.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Just now, WEATHER DOT COM said:

 

Would IR decisions be reported right away though?

Sometimes, seems to be hit or miss. Things were late last year if I recall.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

1 minute ago, balln said:

Schopp is absolutely brutal on the air now. Talking about nothing. Cuts mean nothing 

 

His overall point is fine but doesn't need to be disected for 40 mins jfc

[TBBills Fan]

10 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

This is a thread for discussing Bills cuts only; not posting what the cuts are

It is for folks who just want to pop in and enjoy knee jerk reactions about what the cuts might be, without wading through the actual cuts.

To see the actual cuts please use the cuts thread, not this one.

[balln]

1 minute ago, WEATHER DOT COM said:

 

His overall point is fine but doesn't need to be disected for 40 mins jfc

Agree. But like we’re fans. Fanatics. Wgr should mandate someone is in booth w him. He can’t be alone on days like this 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

13 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

This is a thread for discussing Bills cuts only; not posting what the cuts are

It is for folks who just want to pop in and enjoy knee jerk reactions about what the cuts might be, without wading through the actual cuts.

To see the actual cuts please use the cuts thread, not this one.

I have to have three monitors open and go back and forth between cuts, discussion about cuts, and Travis Kelce’s nuptials. It is a lot.

[Goin Breakdown]

I'm saying this here and not the other cuts thread but DAYUM some people just don't get it. 

[boyst]

15 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said:

This is a thread for discussing Bills cuts only; not posting what the cuts are

It is for folks who just want to pop in and enjoy knee jerk reactions about what the cuts might be, without wading through the actual cuts.

To see the actual cuts please use the cuts thread, not this one.

beat me to it