Are Fan Expectations Too High for Keon Coleman?

[JohnNord]

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

[Ya Digg?]

without his injury last year he surpasses those numbers as a rookie-so you actually think he’s going to regress his 2nd year rather than improve 

[NewEra]

I’ll go for 51- 825-6 if healthy.  
 

 

 

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by NewEra

[Victory Formation]

I think if any receiver on this team takes a leap, I think it will be Dalton Kincaid. 
 

If Keon can develop into a high end WR2 though I’d be floored..

Edited 11 hours ago by Victory Formation

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

without his injury last year he surpasses those numbers as a rookie-so you actually think he’s going to regress his 2nd year rather than improve 

 

Well...it does roll that way sometimes (regression in 2nd season).  Look at Kincaid.

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’ll go for 51- 825-6 if healthy.  
 

 

Things are pointing in the direction that your numbers seem more than reasonable.  I would actually consider bumping up the TDs.

 

If everyone stays relatively healthy, I think the WR/TE group can put up some decent reception numbers.

[MasterStrategist]

I've been one of his biggest supporters since the start, and already said 1 month ago that he was gonna impress - his strength and quickness at top of route will be noticeably improved.  Its not jump balls, its the leverage and his athletic ability that will be on better display.

 

I think hes ready to be a big time player for us.  Im going 65 catches for 900 yards and 8 TDs, if he can stay healthy all season.

[JohnNord]

19 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

without his injury last year he surpasses those numbers as a rookie-so you actually think he’s going to regress his 2nd year rather than improve 

The average above was based on 13 games, which is the same amount that played his rookie season.  While he surpassed yardage and TD’s he did not in receptions.  
 

But yes the fact that he’s in the ballpark is reason for optimism 

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well...it does roll that way sometimes (regression in 2nd season).  Look at Kincaid.

That was Tim’s argument for cutting off the search at 2022 and not including rookies like Worthy or Ladd who had pretty good rookie seasons 

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

 

Interesting.

 

As far as fan expectations, fans will always expect first rounders to contribute strongly, starting their first year.

 

As far as fan expectations being realistic - Beane has a draft pattern of trying to overcompensate for drafting late in the first by choosing high ceiling/low floor kind of guys.  Rousseau was an example of that - a player who had a lot of raw physical talent and had shown potential, but had actually had played very little college ball.  15 games, that's it.  Rousseau looks like a decent contributor now, but it took him a while to get there.

 

Elam IMO was an example of that - a physically talented fast guy, who needed to take a big step in his actual coverage skills to play at the NFL level. 

 

And of course, the ultimate example was Josh Allen. 

Anyway I see Keon as another of Beane's "high ceiling, low floor" rifle shots.  He's big, he can box out like a basketball player ('cuz he was one) - can't coach size and physicality - and he needed a lot of work on his route running and release moves.

[Einstein]

I don’t think he will ever be more than a 2nd or 3rd WR.

 

I hope I am wrong and he dominates.

[Joe Marino]

His numbers will be better than your projection, not in small part due to the fact that he has Josh Allen.

[oldmanfan]

Looks like he’s worked his butt off this off season.  We’ll see how he does.

[stevestojan]

This is his year to put up or literally shut up. 

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Things are pointing in the direction that your numbers seem more than reasonable.  I would actually consider bumping up the TDs.

 

If everyone stays relatively healthy, I think the WR/TE group can put up some decent reception numbers.

Thanks.  I think he’s going to improve on what we saw from him in the first half of last season.  
 

I think a lot of Keons success depends on Josh’s cohesion with Palmer, Moore and Kincaid  on 20+ yard routes.  If those guys can keep the defenses honest, I think Keon can really take advantage of physical mismatches and break some tackles to get some gainers.  
 

I love the run after catch ability on this team.  If we can get some improvement in the 20+ yard area and the sideline, this offense is going to be scary.  

14 minutes ago, Einstein said:

I don’t think he will ever be more than a 2nd or 3rd WR.

 

I hope I am wrong and he dominates.

2nd WRs are key.  If he becomes a good WR2- in good with that.  
 

what numbers do you think he’ll hit?

[Bobby Hooks]

16 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Interesting.

 

As far as fan expectations, fans will always expect first rounders to contribute strongly, starting their first year.

 

As far as fan expectations being realistic - Beane has a draft pattern of trying to overcompensate for drafting late in the first by choosing high ceiling/low floor kind of guys.  Rousseau was an example of that - a player who had a lot of raw physical talent and had shown potential, but had actually had played very little college ball.  15 games, that's it.  Rousseau looks like a decent contributor now, but it took him a while to get there.

 

Elam IMO was an example of that - a physically talented fast guy, who needed to take a big step in his actual coverage skills to play at the NFL level. 

 

And of course, the ultimate example was Josh Allen. 

Anyway I see Keon as another of Beane's "high ceiling, low floor" rifle shots.  He's big, he can box out like a basketball player ('cuz he was one) - can't coach size and physicality - and he needed a lot of work on his route running and release moves.

I agree with most of what you said outside of him being a first round pick. 
 

He was a second round pick, first of the 2nd’s but 2nd nonetheless. People should tamper their expectations based on that alone. 

[Doc Brown]

38 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

In what world has Elijah Moore had a decent career in his four years in the NFL?  He wouldn't have been available for $2.5m in his 5th year in the league if he wasn't disappointing so far.  He's had bad QB's but Garrett Wilson's posted three 1,000 yard seasons to start his career with Wilson, Boyle, Sineman, Flacco, White, and Rodgers throwing him the ball.  It's just wishful thinking to think he'll make any kind of jump this year.

[JohnNord]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

In what world has Elijah Moore had a decent career in his four years in the NFL?  He wouldn't have been available for $2.5m in his 5th year in the league if he wasn't disappointing so far.  He's had bad QB's but Garrett Wilson's posted three 1,000 yard seasons to start his career with Wilson, Boyle, Sineman, Flacco, White, and Rodgers throwing him the ball.  It's just wishful thinking to think he'll make any kind of jump this year.

Take a look at the number Graham provided.  If you look where Moore in R2 was drafted and the average production of a WR selected in that range, Moore is slightly above the average season.  That’s why I’d give him the “decent” label.  His production slightly exceeded his draft position - with some of the bad QB’s you referenced.  

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Take a look at the number Graham provided.  If you look where Moore in R2 was drafted and the average production of a WR selected in that range, Moore is slightly above the average season.  That’s why I’d give him the “decent” label.  His production slightly exceeded his draft position - with some of the bad QB’s you referenced.  

His PFF grade was 92nd out of 98 WR's last year.  His catch percentage has never been above 60% when targeted.  The highest rated season a QB had when passing him the ball was 77.7 in his rookie season.  That's not decent.

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

 

Lumping recently drafted, big producing WR's like Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman in the same sample with Gaffney/Britt/Nicks is just bad data, IMO.

 

The latter 3 were drafted for a very different league.

 

Taking a sample size for the WR position back further than players drafted after the 2010 rules changes is very likely to give you a skewed result.

 

Those rules basically neutered the complex Pittsburgh and Rex Ryan type pass defense's that had stunted QB development in the NFL for the better part of 15 years prior.

 

They only worked if you could kill shot the WR's and QB's.  

 

The QB position instantly became less cerebral and the WR position gradually became more about athleticism than toughness-over-the-middle than it was before.

 

There was an initial huge boost in offensive production.   More numbers meant more money for players in the passing game,  even if most ships were being raised by the tide..  

 

That triggered more interest in playing offensive skill positions at the youth level.   The rise of 7 on 7 etc..

 

We really started seeing the change in quality of athlete late in the 2010's.

 

Those kids who used to be steered into other sports started reaching the pro's because of the big money and long careers promised at QB and WR.

 

Coleman is part of a different group.  He probably would have stuck with hoops if he were in college in 2002.

 

I don't think it's at all unreasonable for fans to expect him to be a 1,000 yard receiver this year.    

 

Rashee Rice was on pace for 1400 yards last year when he blew out his knee.   Higgins and Pittman both put up 1,000 in their second years.

 

Coleman is not a lesser athlete than any of those guys IMO and while 1,000 yards will put you in the top 25 in the NFL it isn't going to make you a household name.

 

Ask Pittman.

 

 

 

 

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I think if any receiver on this team takes a leap, I think it will be Dalton Kincaid. 
 

If Keon can develop into a high end WR2 though I’d be floored..

Both.

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