Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Rousseauisnoschmo]

Hot garbage who was averaging 20 yards a catch before his wrist injury and made some pretty explosive plays along the way. Why is it so many analysts, and I use the term loosely, think these guys are a finished product coming out of college? Lets give this kid an opportunity to improve. If he sucks after three years Ill start listening to the hot garbage take. Plenty of great players dont 'pop' until their second or third year.

[TheBrownBear]

2 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

I’ve already said it in another thread. Coleman is the receiver fighting for the final roster spot. 
 

Shakir, Palmer, Moore, Samuels are all making it. 5th spot will be between Coleman and whoever else. 
 

Beane and McDermott were not happy with him. He is not a lock to make the team as many seem to think IMO. Unless he really really makes a jump from last year. 

I see him moving down the depth chart, but there's no way he doesn't get another year unless he shows up out of shape or with attitude issues. But yes, I can see a world where a kid like Prather overtakes him as early as this year. The way Beane called him out is very concerning.  I believe he ultimately goes down as a bust.  

[Rousseauisnoschmo]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

At this point I don't have alot of faith that Keon becomes a WR1 or WR2.  His only viable contribution based on his lack of speed seems to be the deep jump ball.  And if he's so dominant at the gauntlet,  why not use him more on slants or crosses?  Alot of eyes will be on Coleman and Kincaid this fall.

Can you explain the 49 year td vs Houston where he faked the Houston db out of his jock on a short pass and then ran 40 yards down the sideline leaving the Houston defense in a cloud of dust if all he can do is catch jump balls?

[Doc Brown]

54 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

 

The reason it gets constantly and justifiably brought up is the fact that we are still somewhat deficient in our wr room. I like the speed additions that BB brought in with Moore/Palmer. We had 40 tds scored last season from non wrs. So the contribution table of that 8 game streak of 30 pts is a little skewed.  On the biggest drive of our season in KC, James was out and our receiving corps did not clutch up.  That's a problem. 

 

We're all rooting for Coleman and patience is necessary.  I give every Bills player for the last 60 years at least 3 full seasons to prove yourself.  That's why this is such a critical year for Dalton.  As @Robb Riddick said we could all have egg on our face?  But the Bills still desperately need to find that fast twitch replacement for Diggs. A wr DC's have to gameplan.  And we haven't done that yet. No one is gameplanning for Coleman & Kincaid right now.  That's a problem. 

A year ago I guess I get it.  I just don't understand it now. We lead the league in points when you include postseason. No one scored more points than us last year though than us, including the Super Bowl champions. We did it last year without Stefon Diggs.  How is this group not better than last year's group? The offenses job is to score points.  I get that we need something to fight about in the off-season but we need to stop bitchin' about WR's.

[DJB]

Beane needs to stop worrying about position so much and take the best player available. 
 

You couldn’t trade 5 Coleman’s to get 1 Ladd in return.

 

Stick with BPA always and figure it out 

[TheBrownBear]

7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

A year ago I guess I get it.  I just don't understand it now. We lead the league in points when you include postseason. No one scored more points than us last year though than us, including the Super Bowl champions. We did it last year without Stefon Diggs.  How is this group not better than last year's group? The offenses job is to score points.  I get that we need something to fight about in the off-season but we need to stop bitchin' about WR's.

We had a +24 turnover differential last year. +8 more than any other team.  That might happen once every couple of decades. We were 10th in total offense last year.  Good, not great, especially considering a great offensive line and an MVP quarterback.  We clearly lacked explosiveness and playmaking at the receiver position, and haven't done much to address it.  

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

We had a +24 turnover differential last year. +8 more than any other team.  That might happen once every couple of decades. We were 10th in total offense last year.  Good, not great, especially considering a great offensive line and an MVP quarterback.  We clearly lacked explosiveness and playmaking at the receiver position, and haven't done much to address it.  

This is like 2018 all over with you guys again.  You pry wanted Josh Rosen and Beane took Josh Allen.  Now you have the gull to question Beane when it comes to constructing an offense?  Again, this isn't fantasy football.

Edited 8 hours ago by Doc Brown

[bearstobills]

3 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

I’ve already said it in another thread. Coleman is the receiver fighting for the final roster spot. 
 

Shakir, Palmer, Moore, Samuels are all making it. 5th spot will be between Coleman and whoever else. 
 

Beane and McDermott were not happy with him. He is not a lock to make the team as many seem to think IMO. Unless he really really makes a jump from last year. 

This is flat out laughable. 

Edited 7 hours ago by bearstobills

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Then maybe the pick should have been Ladd. Don’t resign Shakir. Then there’s more $ for other players or James cook. It just gets back to roster building for me. You pick the best player available because the dominos that fall year to year either way have a big impact. 
 

instead beane picked based on need. Again.
 

time will tell. But Coleman is going to be worse gave Davis type target black hole if the bills keep playing him outside. 

 

I was not in favour of drafting Coleman. I liked Ladd quite a bit more but would not have favoured a slot in round 1. I wanted the Bills to draft an outside receiver. That was what this offense needed IMO. Instead they decided BTJ wasn't worth a trade up then passed on Worthy and Legette to draft a big slot in Keon Coleman. If you were gonna take Coleman then you'd have been better taking Ladd IMO. 

Edited 7 hours ago by GunnerBill

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I think, at the end of the day, drafting a player to fit a very specific role within a position isn’t the best way to make a decision. LM was and is the far better player. Hoping KC can close that gap. 

1 hour ago, TheBrownBear said:

I see him moving down the depth chart, but there's no way he doesn't get another year unless he shows up out of shape or with attitude issues. But yes, I can see a world where a kid like Prather overtakes him as early as this year. The way Beane called him out is very concerning.  I believe he ultimately goes down as a bust.  

When your GM sternly calls you out in his post season presser? Definitely NOT the way you want to put a bow on your rookie season. Talking to you too DK. 

[oldmanfan]

We just spent a week with a thread beeyatching about Kincaid.  Looks like this week it will be Coleman.  Then I guess it’ll switch back to Kincaid. 
 

This is really simple with respect to Coleman.  He was playing fairly well for a rookie before his injury, and given the nature of the offense and his role in it.  Then he got hurt, and didn’t come back from that well.  Beane pointed out that he needs to step it up, and not one person here has a clue how he responds to that.  So you can either assume a glass empty position or glass half full.  I take the latter as the kid is young, and that it is quite reasonable to think a young player improves with experience.  
 

As for comparisons to other rookies, I don’t place much emphasis on it, because you can play that game with any players at any position for any team.  Teams deficient at corner wish they had taken Benford.  We can say we should have taken McConkey but he fills a different role than Coleman does, and the Bills wanted a bigger guy.  
 

So we’ll see.  I think Coleman steps up but if not it doesn’t mean Beane is terrible or whatever.  It means a young player didn’t work out, and you move on.

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

We had a +24 turnover differential last year. +8 more than any other team.  That might happen once every couple of decades. We were 10th in total offense last year.  Good, not great, especially considering a great offensive line and an MVP quarterback.  We clearly lacked explosiveness and playmaking at the receiver position, and haven't done much to address it.  

Moore is the more explosive guy, Palmer ranks high in separation ability.  To me this addressed your concerns.  

[Rousseauisnoschmo]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

A year ago I guess I get it.  I just don't understand it now. We lead the league in points when you include postseason. No one scored more points than us last year though than us, including the Super Bowl champions. We did it last year without Stefon Diggs.  How is this group not better than last year's group? The offenses job is to score points.  I get that we need something to fight about in the off-season but we need to stop bitchin' about WR's.

We could B word about the defense giving up 34.75 points per game to KC in the four playoff losses? Complaining about wr does seem a bit silly

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Jesus guys. There was a stretch last year where Keon was running right around with Nabers to lead in rookie receiving yards before his got hirt. A lot of these others guys in his class effectively were their teams offenses in 2023, and Coleman was forecasted as a project in every draft profile I saw.

 

I there stuff to criticize about his game? Absolutely. Do I think he's going to magically be a top 15 receiver this year? No.

 

But c'mon guys, it used to be that you had to wait 3 years to see if a WR panned out and he's clearly putting work in

 

Let's at least get to training camp before we freakout 

[DCofNC]

10 hours ago, FLFan said:

It is useless to compare the two.  If you want to make a case that the Bills should have drafted McConkey, then compare him to Shakir and make that argument.  Coleman has a completely different role, unless someone wants to argue that McConkey could play the X which is the position the Bills were trying to fill with that pick.  

Ok, the Bills should have drafted McConkey and let Shakir go, saving 10M/yr the next 4 years .  There I did it.

[CoudyBills]

9 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

McConkey had about double the target share than Coleman.  If you take Coleman's stat production and (unscientifically) extrapolate that to McConkey's target share they'd have almost identical stats.

 

I'm probably higher on Coleman still than most. He's got so much room to grow and he's in arguably the best organization in the NFL to do that.

I don't belive that is how probability and statistics work.

[Dr. Who]

15 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

I don't belive that is how probability and statistics work.

It's not, but that is how one can "lie" with statistics. (The poster is a decent fella. I'm sure there is no mendacious intent.)

Anyway, let's all hope Coleman does become a solid WR2, which is probably his ceiling.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Does Coleman need to improve?  Yup, no question.   
 

But:  On a more optimistic note instead of just recycling the same WR and Coleman rants all the time…

When he got hurt week 11 he was on pace for 800-900 yards and 7+ TDs.  And to add more context to that, that is with:

1 - Being a rookie 

2 - Splitting reps and time 

3 - Playing on an offense that saw its QB spread the ball around hitting 9-10 different targets that also ran the ball a lot.  
4 - Played on an offense where due to blow out wins took the pedal off the gas for whole quarters and some halves and stopped forcing the air attack

5 - Missed the first quarter of a blow out win where the offense ran clock second half meaning he played like one or two series and caught his lone target for a long TD

6 - Was used as a blocker a lot because he was punishing people as a blocker, a major reason we didn’t try and bring Mack back.  
 

Yes he has work to do…no doubt.  But some of you I think are MORE invested in him failing or validating your doubts than actually looking for positives to whether he can be a good player for us.  
 

And if you want to know the real issue…I think he is playing out of position and should play the Z and let Palmer play the X.  And if we do that, and I think we might, don’t be surprised to see Keon prove some people wrong.  
 

It’s like if people don’t think he can be a top 5 WR1 he is automatically trash and a whipping boy.  He can be a good player for us, even if it ultimately means it’s as a WR2 at some point.  
 

And this is coming from me who told everyone (and a lot of people argued) that Ladd McConkey was going to be one the best WRs in this draft and I had him as WR5 behind Nabers, Harrison, Odunze, and BTJ.  I even said I don’t know we will take him for what they are looking for but I was terrified KC or Ravens would land him.  
 

I loved Ladd coming out…but let’s not condemn Keon for not being Ladd and just constantly pile on him before he’s stepped on the field for his second year yet.  He’s a Bill…he loves it here…and Josh has publicly said Keon has been hitting him up all offseason on getting better.  So he seems to be putting in the work.

 

But man…the WR rants have been beaten to death around here.  Like what more needs to even be said at this point?  

Thank you! The point I go back to was that everyone knew he was a project. At 2023 FSU the QB situation got so screwy his route tree was "go deep & make stuff happen on 50/50 balls"  and "short slant or screen" 

 

Am I going to blame people for being impatient or wanting to see more? Hell no! I'm those things.

 

But if your entire argument is comparing rookie numbers against guys on the offensive juggernauts such as *checks notes* Jags, Giants, Cardinals, Raiders and Bears, where there was pretty much no other target you are working from a flawed premise

[FLFan]

27 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, the Bills should have drafted McConkey and let Shakir go, saving 10M/yr the next 4 years .  There I did it.

Well, at least that’s the right conversation.  

[finn]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

We had a +24 turnover differential last year. +8 more than any other team.  That might happen once every couple of decades. We were 10th in total offense last year.  Good, not great, especially considering a great offensive line and an MVP quarterback.  We clearly lacked explosiveness and playmaking at the receiver position, and haven't done much to address it.  

Exactly. This point is not surfacing enough in response to the avalanche of "The Bills scored more points than anyone, so why improve the offense?" type comments*. They were +2 in 2023 and 0 in 2022. The very low number of turnovers on offense is surely an artifact of Brady's emphasis on running the ball and Allen's maturity. But even if the trend is real, the unusually low number could easily be an outlier. Meanwhile, a very poor defense held its own by getting the ball back. Again, this was likely a point of emphasis (I think Babich even said so). Long may it continue. But just a few more turnovers by the offense and a few less on defense will likely make a dent in the W-L totals.

 

I'm not raining on the parade here. I realize you can't take turnover differential away and say "See? Mediocre team." They're a key reflection of the overall quality of the team. Still, they're not a factor you can usually rely on year to year. Given how explosively important they can be--turning the entire momentum of a game--a +24 differential can take you a long way. Cut that in half, say--still a healthy number--and, well, you hope that Beane's moves to improve on both sides of the ball bear fruit. I really, really do not want to see the AFCCG in KC yet again. 

 

*I realize there's reason to think the offense might be better. 

[balln]

41 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Jesus guys. There was a stretch last year where Keon was running right around with Nabers to lead in rookie receiving yards before his got hirt. A lot of these others guys in his class effectively were their teams offenses in 2023, and Coleman was forecasted as a project in every draft profile I saw.

 

I there stuff to criticize about his game? Absolutely. Do I think he's going to magically be a top 15 receiver this year? No.

 

But c'mon guys, it used to be that you had to wait 3 years to see if a WR panned out and he's clearly putting work in

 

Let's at least get to training camp before we freakout 

Classic meaningless player comments about “how they’re changing their diet”

 

”they shed weight/ leaner “

 

”they gained weight / more muscle”

 

it’s all hogwash. It’s what underperforming players say