Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman

[Starr-Bills]

19 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I can really see why the Bills liked him from some of the stuff in that article - the bit about him scheduling throwing sessions at midnight on visits to LSU and FSU, and "Coleman is such a film junkie that he'd figured out a large portion of FSU's playbook before actually seeing it."

 

One little false note: "That'll all require rapport, and they're already planning to work out this offseason at Allen's place in Wyoming. "  Not that he couldn't, with what he earns, but as far as I know Josh does not have a place in Wyoming.

 

 

Don’t let fact checking get in the way of a feel good story. 

[Neo]

1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

 

Okay fair enough. That said . . . Michael Jordan was drafted 3rd overall. While I know next to nothing about the NBA, I'm guessing he must have shown something at the college level, to have been taken with such an early pick.

 

If I think of guys who were better as professionals than they'd been in college, one of the first names which comes to mind is Kurt Warner. No one drafted him. He tried out for the Green Bay Packers, but didn't make the final roster cut. Then he got a job stocking shelves for a grocery store. After he'd worked that job a bit, the St. Louis Rams called, and the rest is history.

It wasn’t my best formulation.

[JGMcD2]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Richardson was a terrible passer in college—awful.   In the NFL he can’t stay on the field in his first season. 
 

Evers will be an equally bad 1st round pick. Hes an overhyped (for YEARS) mediocrity's who will lose his job to Manning this year and enter the portal 

They’re objectively better players than Thorne, Travis and Rodemaker. 

[CNYfan]

Eric Moulds didn't really blossom as a wr until his third year, as I remember it.

[PBF81]

13 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

PBF81, you've made it clear here and elsewhere that you don't think much of Keon.  

 

But let me offer another view by Brentley Weisman, "Coleman has everything you want to be a team’s No. 1 option and will likely be a difference-maker early on in his NFL career... Prospect Projection: Day 1 — Pro Bowl Talent"

 

Where is Mr. Weisman's detailed analysis?  

 

13 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

You're a knowledgeable poster.  But Weisman is a former NFL scout with the Chargers, Raiders, and Pats.  It would be hard for you to convince me that you're right and the NFL scout is wrong.  Especially when I want the scout to be right. 🙂

 

You can read Weisman's full profile on Coleman here:

 

thedraftnetwork.com/2023/12/20/keon-coleman-scouting-report-nfl-draft-2024

 

I don't care about his profile, dig up his past draft profiles, reviews, and statements about how good players will be in the NFL, all of them from rounds 1 and 2, then let's talk.  

 

You also know zero about my background and all the those same types of positions that I've challenged in the past, publicly, and have been correct.  Very often to the extent that a year or two later I'd gotten e-mail apologizing for the filth sent my way via e-mail expressing similar thoughts.  

 

I'm quite happy to stand on my positions.  They're more accurate on the handful that I've actually done than the big name draft people easily.  People do not understand the amount of time it takes to evaluate a player.  As mentioned, I've spent the equivalent now, in one, two, and three hour segments, reviewing Coleman, very little of which I've posted here.  To do that for several hundred players, even 50 or 100, is impossible within a few short months prior to the Draft.  So most of the people putting up things simply regurgitate what others have said.  After all, if Weisman is wrong, so what, "everyone was wrong," "everyone thought [blah blah blah]..."  

 

So few people digress with the mainstream or put their stuff out there for criticism.  I don't mind.  We'll see where this is this fall.  But already McD admitting that Coleman isn't going to contribute much this season, ... LOL ... I mean really?  Is that really what we need right now, a WR that isn't prepared to contribute this season?   At some point people need to start seeing through this idiocy that's holding our team back from being much better than it is.  

 

Either way, I don't care.  Just floating my analysis.  But honestly, citing the guy as a scout, ...   I got into it directly with a scout years ago and he ended up being entirely wrong also.  It was an amicable exchange, but just because someone's a scout, look at all the busts and horrible picks, they're all a result of scouts' input.  All.  

 

The funny thing is, if Coleman really isn't very good and his play does not translate to the NFL as I've suggested, no one here is going to point out that I was correct, but more importantly for the reasons stated.  They'll simply say what everyone else does, that everyone was wrong and thought [blah blah blah], and we'll wash, rinse, repeat the exercise next year.  

 

 

 

Either way, dig up the guy's past stuff and let's evaluate how accurate he's been for round 1/2 picks.  I already know what it's going to be.  

 

 

12 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Yes.  Talk is cheap.  So why do you continue?  And that goes for others on the incessantly positive side as well.

 

At this point he is a Bill, he is going to play and we ALL need to get behind him.  

 

 

Then shut the forum down.  LOL 

 

I'm not merely talking.  I provide data and substance for my views.  Most of what gets posted here is superficial and emotional and narrative based stuff, just like everywhere on just about every topic in the world.  The majority of the substance posted here, or anywhere for that matter, is what others say, but often offer little substance for or superficial substance.  That's exactly the case with Coleman.  Even Gunner has expressed concerns over Coleman.  

 

No one has to read it.  For the handful of people that engage with any substance it's fun.  What isn't fun is debating facts v. opinions.  Right?  

 

 

[PBF81]

11 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

He did have high end production in 2 big time schools... 

 

That runs counter to what even his draft profiles state. 

 

11 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

As I've said, he gives this O a dimension we didn't have 

 

What's that dimension, specifically?  

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

They’re objectively better players than Thorne, Travis and Rodemaker. 

 

well...they were on TV more.  that might make them subjectively better....

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

If I get time, I can do stills but I came away from your exercise feeling better than I did going into it. I saw many out of the ordinary plays. 

 

You didn't point them out.  

 

Which ones, specifically.  One play at at time.  Other than the few that I agreed with, which other ones do you consider to be "out of the ordinary?"  

 

Let's assess them together.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

50 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Where is Mr. Weisman's detailed analysis?  

 

 

I don't care about his profile, dig up his past draft profiles, reviews, and statements about how good players will be in the NFL, all of them from rounds 1 and 2, then let's talk.  

 

You also know zero about my background and all the those same types of positions that I've challenged in the past, publicly, and have been correct.  Very often to the extent that a year or two later I'd gotten e-mail apologizing for the filth sent my way via e-mail expressing similar thoughts.  

 

I'm quite happy to stand on my positions.  They're more accurate on the handful that I've actually done than the big name draft people easily.  People do not understand the amount of time it takes to evaluate a player.  As mentioned, I've spent the equivalent now, in one, two, and three hour segments, reviewing Coleman, very little of which I've posted here.  To do that for several hundred players, even 50 or 100, is impossible within a few short months prior to the Draft.  So most of the people putting up things simply regurgitate what others have said.  After all, if Weisman is wrong, so what, "everyone was wrong," "everyone thought [blah blah blah]..."  

 

So few people digress with the mainstream or put their stuff out there for criticism.  I don't mind.  We'll see where this is this fall.  But already McD admitting that Coleman isn't going to contribute much this season, ... LOL ... I mean really?  Is that really what we need right now, a WR that isn't prepared to contribute this season?   At some point people need to start seeing through this idiocy that's holding our team back from being much better than it is.  

 

Either way, I don't care.  Just floating my analysis.  But honestly, citing the guy as a scout, ...   I got into it directly with a scout years ago and he ended up being entirely wrong also.  It was an amicable exchange, but just because someone's a scout, look at all the busts and horrible picks, they're all a result of scouts' input.  All.  

 

The funny thing is, if Coleman really isn't very good and his play does not translate to the NFL as I've suggested, no one here is going to point out that I was correct, but more importantly for the reasons stated.  They'll simply say what everyone else does, that everyone was wrong and thought [blah blah blah], and we'll wash, rinse, repeat the exercise next year.  

 

 

 

Either way, dig up the guy's past stuff and let's evaluate how accurate he's been for round 1/2 picks.  I already know what it's going to be.  

 

 

 

Then shut the forum down.  LOL 

 

I'm not merely talking.  I provide data and substance for my views.  Most of what gets posted here is superficial and emotional and narrative based stuff, just like everywhere on just about every topic in the world.  The majority of the substance posted here, or anywhere for that matter, is what others say, but often offer little substance for or superficial substance.  That's exactly the case with Coleman.  Even Gunner has expressed concerns over Coleman.  

 

No one has to read it.  For the handful of people that engage with any substance it's fun.  What isn't fun is debating facts v. opinions.  Right?  

 

 

Your data is your opinion, not fact.  From my reading it seems you view tape and make decisions as to whether you think there is, for example, separation on a pattern.  And when you go into an analysis with a preconceived slant, which it appears you might have, confirmation bias creeps in.

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Your data is your opinion, not fact.  From my reading it seems you view tape and make decisions as to whether you think there is, for example, separation on a pattern.  And when you go into an analysis with a preconceived slant, which it appears you might have, confirmation bias creeps in.

 

I haven't seen you point out anything in the video to argue the point.  All you do is argue what I say about the video.  

 

So how is that different from the criticism that you lay out?  

 

Either way, we've been through this you and I.  You don't like to look at facts or evidence much less discuss them.  It's all purely argumentative with your only basis seemingly being me and my takes without any specific factual counters.   I don't see much point in continuing.  I'll be happy to give you a thumbs up on your posts to me and leave it at that henceforth.  

 

 

 

 

[T master]

22 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

McDermott has to rely on rookies this year, More so than in the past.  

 

As most really good coaches do he watches and learns from other really good coaches in the league and then implements his plan which many fans here don't realize they would rather fire him and start all over just like the Bills use to for 17+ yrs . 

 

The beginning of the season may have a couple of bumps along the way allowing the rookies to learn their roles and getting them involved in their respective schemes but like last season i think by mid season it will start to click and then we will see that chemistry come together on both sides of the ball ...

 

Right now all the so called "Experts" don't give the Bills much of a chance at anything this season but it will all come around and they will be right in the thick of it as they normally are when the play offs role around !! 

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You didn't point them out.  

 

Which ones, specifically.  One play at at time.  Other than the few that I agreed with, which other ones do you consider to be "out of the ordinary?"  

 

Let's assess them together.  

 

 

I provided further exact time stamps to look at to try to assess them with you.  I mentioned i hadnt had a chance to look at that video even though I intended too.  I likely dont have the time to get stills of every play that I listed.  Did you look at the specific time stamps of 7:11, 0:14, 18:56 to show you examples of when he was getting out of the ordinary separation?  I was trying to understand why you thought those plays that are out of the ordinary separation imo are considered routine to you.  Again i would note that you need to not just look at separation when the ball gets to the receiver and need to look at separation at the time of ball release.  Did you look for all -22 as i suggested?  broadcast view really limits what you can see (7:11 and 18:56 have all 22 angles). 

 

Seems like you dont want to engage as I seemingly put more work into your exercise than you did and then you didnt want to reengage (3 line response when i gave examples and wanted to go one by one after already giving you a good bit of my time).  If you wanna be miserable about Keon as a prospect because you didnt look fully enough; then go be you.  I tried to engage in good faith.  My bad and shouldve realized based on your past behavior on the board (really just wanted to watch that video). 

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

But let me offer another view by Brentley Weisman, "Coleman has everything you want to be a team’s No. 1 option and will likely be a difference-maker early on in his NFL career... Prospect Projection: Day 1 — Pro Bowl Talent"

 

You're a knowledgeable poster.  But Weisman is a former NFL scout with the Chargers, Raiders, and Pats.  It would be hard for you to convince me that you're right and the NFL scout is wrong.  Especially when I want the scout to be right. 🙂

 

You can read Weisman's full profile on Coleman here:

 

thedraftnetwork.com/2023/12/20/keon-coleman-scouting-report-nfl-draft-2024

 

BTW, is this the same Weissman that had WR Jameson Williams 14th overall on his Big Board and WR Treylon Burks at 17th in 2022?  

 

The answer to that is yes.  Let's just hope we get a whole lot more production from Coleman than those to have put up.  Huge disappointments both of 'em any excuses aside.  

 

Point being, just because he's a scout does not mean that he's got it all correct.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

I haven't seen you point out anything in the video to argue the point.  All you do is argue what I say about the video.  

 

So how is that different from the criticism that you lay out?  

 

Either way, we've been through this you and I.  You don't like to look at facts or evidence much less discuss them.  It's all purely argumentative with your only basis seemingly being me and my takes without any specific factual counters.   I don't see much point in continuing.  I'll be happy to give you a thumbs up on your posts to me and leave it at that henceforth.  

 

 

 

 

I don't have an ax to grind as it appears you may have against Coleman.  For me, I just want to see the kid play.  Time will tell how good or bad he is, and I would hope we all think he's good.  I don't see the need to exhaustively break down film on each and every player.  If you have the time and'/or this is your hobby, good for you.  Just do it objectively.

 

In my professional career I act as a peer reviewer for a number of medical and scientific journals.  I reject probably 80% of the papers I get because the authors are guilty of confirmation bias.  The most important part of a scientific paper to read is the Materials and Methods, and that is where confirmation bias is seen.  They set up experiments, controls, statistics, and such to reach a preformed conclusion.  So when the Results are reported they really don't mean much.  Unfortunately that is what I see in your analysis.

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

...

 

I don't care about his profile, dig up his past draft profiles, reviews, and statements about how good players will be in the NFL, all of them from rounds 1 and 2, then let's talk.  

...

 

Either way, I don't care.  Just floating my analysis.  But honestly, citing the guy as a scout, ...   I got into it directly with a scout years ago and he ended up being entirely wrong also.  It was an amicable exchange, but just because someone's a scout, look at all the busts and horrible picks, they're all a result of scouts' input.  All.  

 

...

 

 

PBF81, you insist you don't care yet you keep pounding the table.  

 

I already told you why I like Weisman's opinion: because I want him to be right because I'm a Bills fan.  I get some reassurance that Weisman might be right because Buffalo716 (former scout), Josh Allen, Brandon Beane, and some other folks I respect generally agree with him. 

 

But opinions are like *elbows* - everybody has them.  And the draft is a game of chance.  Even good GMs/scouts are often wrong.  Even bad GMs/scouts are sometimes right.  The good GMs/scouts simply have a better batting percentage, though that's a metric that's hard to measure precisely. 

 

Scouting is a very inexact, predictive science.  A scout needs to guess who's going to get bigger, stronger, faster.  Who's going to fully dedicate themselves to their craft and resist the temptations that come with fame and money.  Who's going to set their ego aside and be receptive to the coaching and take it to heart.  Who's not going to sustain a career-ending injury.  And so on.  Weisman, Allen, and Beane may all be wrong, and you may be right.  I don't know.  But I know this: I have no way of knowing.  So I choose to maintain hope that Coleman turns out to be a great pick.  Given some of the people who believe in the kid, and my own observations, it's not an unreasonable hope.  

 

 

Edited May 22 by hondo in seattle

[Magox]

On 5/21/2024 at 10:16 AM, HappyDays said:

 

He's spent a total of two years of his life focusing exclusively on football. He just turned 21 last week. Give the kid a chance, yeah? Clearly he understands the game and is going to give everything he's got to become a great player.

 

Also worth noting that he transferred to Florida state and didn't have hardly any time to acclimate himself to a new system and team and he still scored 11 TD's.    

 

Something else that I heard Josh say yesterday was that he characterized Coleman's first day as a player with good route running ability.  He almost sounded a little surprised at how well he was running his routes.

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I provided further exact time stamps to look at to try to assess them with you.  I mentioned i hadnt had a chance to look at that video even though I intended too.  I likely dont have the time to get stills of every play that I listed.  Did you look at the specific time stamps of 7:11, 0:14, 18:56 to show you examples of when he was getting out of the ordinary separation?  I was trying to understand why you thought those plays that are out of the ordinary separation imo are considered routine to you.  Again i would note that you need to not just look at separation when the ball gets to the receiver and need to look at separation at the time of ball release.  Did you look for all -22 as i suggested?  broadcast view really limits what you can see (7:11 and 18:56 have all 22 angles). 

 

Seems like you dont want to engage as I seemingly put more work into your exercise than you did and then you didnt want to reengage (3 line response when i gave examples and wanted to go one by one after already giving you a good bit of my time).  If you wanna be miserable about Keon as a prospect because you didnt look fully enough; then go be you.  I tried to engage in good faith.  My bad and shouldve realized based on your past behavior on the board (really just wanted to watch that video). 

 

I'll engage, I must've missed it.  Apologies there if so.  I had a deluge of emotionally charged replies this a.m.  I didn't even bother responding to a bunch.  

 

As to All-22 I tried to sign up last year, but something about DAZN said that it wasn't available in my country (the US obviously) and it wouldn't let me sign up.  

 

If you have a workaround I'd be tremendously grateful for it!  

 

I'll look at those time-stamped plays right now. ... 

 

... 

 

Quote

... look at the specific time stamps of 7:11, 0:14, 18:56 to show you examples of when he was getting out of the ordinary separation?

 

To start, review the entire video when you have time.  As I've said, I'm going to splice the video up into varying sections, but that'll take much time that I don't have right now.  This is a busy time of the year for me.  

 

7:11 ... 

No, I don't see any separation here.  What's there is Coleman going OTM into zero coverage except for a S deep.  Which defensive player (by number) do you see him separating from?   It's a crap pass, can't blame him for that, but when it's thrown the S is right there with him, not separated.  So no, not seeing it at all.  Explain further in detail if you would.  

 

014 ... 

Again, not seeing anything resembling separation here.  On this play, 1st-and-10, the ball's snapped at the 8:01 mark and thrown 2 seconds later.  To start, that's not even really much time to separate, but moreover, if you look at the DBs on that play, all of 'em, are way back.  Three are a yard in front of the 1st-down line, the S is 16-yards off of the LoS.  Coleman's wide left, he begins his slant inward about 5 yards out, at which time the DB covering him (#24, Zy Alexander) starts moving forward from about 10/11 yards out after having backpeddled to start the play.  He attempts to reverse his momentum but that's futile, which is blatant, as Coleman's momentum is laterally, not downfield/flying.  Again, that's more of a defensive alignment thing, not any separation.  

 

After the catch he's got a LB and another DB (#3) that have to completely alter their momentum as well, which is also futile.  He jukes that last DB (#15) out of his jock, but that's not separation either.  After that for the next 22 yards there's nothin' but green between him and the EZ, which is why his Sr. teammate Winson Wright (#1) is holding up his hand signaling TD essentially.  I've spelled this out elsewhere here in similar detail.  

 

So again, that doesn't qualify as separation.  It's taking advantage of an open field and slack coverage.  

 

18:56 ... 

Same here.  What anyone watching this play should notice is that for 12/13 yards the DB is on him quite nicely.  It's only 13 yards out from the LoS Coleman makes a move that creates that shift in direction which is what I suppose creates some separation, but it was not speed that did it, not in the least.  The DB (Jaden Harris, #7 for the Canes this past season) bites inside while Coleman goes outside.  Coleman gains a yard or two on him, so yes, separation there, but as the play unfolds Harris closes that gap too.  

 

Another thing that you should look at when evaluating players in this fashion is whom they're up against mano-a-mano.  I have yet to see a prominent Draft Expert, or any draft analyst, do this.  In this case Harris (#7 this past season) was a red-shirt freshman, not the type of talent that Coleman's going to see in the NFL.  It's one of the first things I look for in doing draft reviews of players.  If their highlight reels are full of plays against opposing players that have little or zero chance of making the NFL, or otherwise as backup/practice squad players, then that's critical to note.  

 

One thing that I noticed about Coleman on the data that I had, is that opponents often match him up against inexperienced or not so good DBs while his teammates drew the better coverage guys.  That says something.  

 

Otherwise, it seems that our definitions of separation are different, but I'm open to yours.  

 

That's a whole lot of detail about those plays and a lot more than simply saying he got separation.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

48 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I don't have an ax to grind as it appears you may have against Coleman. 

 

OK, well that's just wrong, so no sense in discussing the rest.  

I had no idea who Coleman even was.  I didn't know whether to be excited or not other than Draft Profile rankings.  

 

I've put out my very extensive (particularly relatively) info.  Believe otherwise if you will.  I'm not going to argue my past success and accolades or other aspects of that with you.  Again, I don't care.  Fine, I'm entirely wrong, I get it.  LOL  Really, I don't care.  My takes are what my objective analylsis tells me.  

 

This notion that I had some preconceived bias against Coleman there isn't a shred of evidence for and is childish otherwise.  

 

BTW, even Gunner's not big on Coleman.  Take it up similarly with him.  

 

 

28 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

PBF81, you insist you don't care yet you keep pounding the table.  

 

I already told you why I like Weisman's opinion: because I want him to be right because I'm a Bills fan.  I get some reassurance that Weisman might be right because Buffalo716 (former scout), Josh Allen, Brandon Beane, and some other folks I respect generally agree with him. 

 

But opinions are like *elbows* - everybody has them.  And the draft is a game of chance.  Even good GMs/scouts are often wrong.  Even bad GMs/scouts are sometimes right.  The good GMs/scouts simply have a better batting percentage, though that's a metric that's hard to measure precisely. 

 

Scouting is a very inexact, predictive science.  A scout needs to guess who's going to get bigger, stronger, faster.  Who's going to fully dedicate themselves to their craft and resist the temptations that come with fame and money.  Who's going to set their ego aside and be receptive to the coaching and take it to heart.  Who's not going to sustain a career-ending injury.  And so on.  Weisman, Allen, and Beane may all be wrong, and you may be right.  I don't know.  But I know this: I have no way of knowing.  So I choose to maintain hope that Coleman turns out to be a great pick.  Given some of the people who believe in the kid, and my own observations, it's not an unreasonable hope.  

 

 

 

That's hedging, but OK.  Noted.   

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

 at 0:23 seconds he gains great separation even though hes slowing down.  Thats a TD if the throw leads him at all.  This is madness to say routine separation and I shouldve never engaged with some one that doesnt have good faith discussion.  This is for the play that starts at exactly 0:10 seconds on the all routes film not the next play that starts at 0:15.  Wow you really wanted to discuss the 0:15 play.  That run is ordinary to you?  Burden is on you to prove it.  How many times did LSU give up a play like that if their defensive scheme was so bad that they gave up such an ordinary TD.  

Edited May 22 by YattaOkasan

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

22 hours ago, mrags said:

It’s about the only thing he does quickly. Ask him what he could do quicker, eat an entire box of chocolate chip cookies or run the 40 and he’ll be finished with the box before he gets out of the blocks. 

Coleman's 40 time is still quicker than your wit.

[JGMcD2]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

well...they were on TV more.  that might make them subjectively better....

Alright, go ahead and make the argument that Rodemaker, Travis and Thorne are objectively better than Richardson and Ewers...