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Rampant Buffalo

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  1. So . . . you believe that even if the WR corps gets off to a rough start, it's unlikely to have a rocky landing? 😮
  2. What I wrote was, "there have been years when the Bills had a poor OL. There have been years when the WR corps was below-average to really bad." Pre-Diggs, Allen's WRs were certainly below-average, at best. That's worth bearing in mind when we're talking about offensive inconsistency in the Houston playoff game. This most recent playoff loss the WRs has 160 yards of drops. Whatever the WR corps' achievements during the regular season, it certainly had a terrible game that day. Now think about the OL. If you don't remember any poor OL play during Allen's time here then that's on you. We had a late career Roger Saffold as a starter. We had an injured and poorly performing Spencer Brown as another starter. The OL was completely dominated by the Bengals in our playoff loss to them. (Another game that's being thrown around as an example of offensive inconsistency in the postseason.)
  3. Sometimes, billionaires have the same problems as ordinary people. This is one of those times. Thoughts and prayers to Terry and his family.
  4. Postseason defensive collapses Chiefs collapse #1. One stop all game, Tre White healthy. Chiefs collapse #2. Two stops all game, Tre White didn't play. Bengals collapse #1. Two stops all game. Von Miller didn't play. Tre White played but wasn't fully back to his pre-injury self. Chiefs collapse #3. Two stops all game. Numerous injuries to the defense. I personally believe that Chiefs defensive collapse #3 was due primarily to injury. I also believe that Chiefs defensive collapses 1 and 2, as well as Bengals defensive collapse #1, were due primarily to the McDermott/Frazier soft zone/prevent defense.
  5. Nope. Not what I said. You have creatively reimagined my post, for the purpose of making it more extreme than what it was.
  6. To be fair . . . there have been years when the Bills had a poor OL. There have been years when the WR corps was below-average to really bad. Give the offense average to above-average players in both those areas, and yeah, I'd expect to see a heck of a lot more offensive consistency.
  7. Yeah your post is solid. You've made good points. But I'd like to draw a distinction. Have there been playoff games when the offense played poorly? Absolutely. No question. But there have also been a number of playoff games where the offense has played well. Whereas with the defense: every time the Bills have played the Chiefs or Bengals in the postseason, the defense has never generated more than two stops. That's 4 games against top passing QBs, and four defensive collapses. Not once in the postseason has the defense done anything other than collapse, when faced with a top passing QB. Not once. If the defense had some good postseason games against Mahomes and Burrow, as well as some bad games, then I'd feel like we had a shot of winning a Super Bowl if things fell our way. But with the defense experiencing near-total failure every single time it faces a QB like that in the postseason, Super Bowl hopes feel unrealistic.
  8. If I was the GM of an expansion team, I'd choose a rookie Allen over a rookie version of any other QB in the league. That specifically includes Pat Mahomes. That said, I view Burrow as a top 5 QB. One of the things he does well is to take what the defense gives him. Accurate throws, high percentage passes. Move the chains. Keep the drive alive. Whereas, one of Allen's weaknesses is that if it's 3rd and 8, and if he's got a guy wide open 9 yards down the field, there's a chance he'll throw it to the guy who's double covered, 40 yards down the field. In watching Kurt Warner's analysis of Allen, there were a number of times Warner mentioned that Allen should have taken the easier, open throw underneath. Let's say Allen were to call me up and were to ask, "What's the one thing I can do, to take my game to the next level?" I'd respond with, "How do you even know who I am?" But then to answer his question, I'd tell him to get coaching from Kurt Warner. "You need that coaching like a thirsty plant needs water." But even as he is, I still think Allen is better than Burrow. If the Bills and Bengals swapped QBs, the Bills would be worse off, and would win fewer games with Burrow than they would have with Allen.
  9. You act as though the Bills are wise to de-emphasize their own passing game, due to the increased difficulty of passing. If you look at the list of NFL passing leaders over the years, it's clear we are in a golden age of passing. If teams are playing two high, that reduces your big plays, but maybe opens up other passing opportunities for intermediate routes. The Bills have a first ballot HOF player at QB. If you have a guy like that, you need to surround him with weapons. You need to build an elite passing offense around him. Running the ball more than half the time, as Brady did last year, is exactly the wrong approach long term. The offense needs to be built around the pass. Compared to 2020, the Bills are better off at TE (having added Kincaid). As a slot receiver, Shakir is a downgrade from Beasley, but is still a pretty good player. They've upgraded at gadget player (Samuel is better than McKenzie). Their weaknesses, at least as perceived by me, are at Z and at X. No obvious replacements for either Diggs or Davis. But maybe a guy I don't expect much from will step up.
  10. Every team needs an offensive identity. The identity of the Bills' offense should be built around the pass. Back when the Bills' passing offense was at its best, it had the following. 1) Josh Allen at QB. 2) Good offensive weapons: Diggs, Beasley, Davis, Knox. 3) An OL which was reasonably proficient at pass protection. 4) A good OC, in the form of Daboll, who was committed to the pass and knew how to scheme guys open. When the team has a proper identity, all four of those boxes are checked. A failure to check even one box means the offense is not firing on all cylinders. Does this style of offense work in January? Josh Allen achieved the highest QB rating in NFL postseason history, with one playoff game in Buffalo and the other in Kansas City. Yeah, I'd say a passing offense can work in January. The enemy of passing isn't cold so much as it is wind. By the time you get to January, the windiest games of the season are generally behind you. In the Chiefs' postseason games, do you see the Chiefs give up on the pass? Take the ball out of Mahomes' hands, in order to give it to the RB instead? Is that how they've been winning their Super Bowls? Did the Patriots win their Super Bowls by getting away from Tom Brady in the postseason, and running the ball instead? You win in January by having an elite passing offense.
  11. The 6-6 start was due in large part to McDermott sometimes opting for a soft zone/prevent defense. The Eagles game was a good example. Tight pass coverage and a good defensive plan for the first half, limiting the Eagles to just 3 points at halftime. Soft zone/prevent defense for the second half. Simply allowing the Eagles to complete 8 - 12 yard passes, with literally no opposition from the defense. The Eagles scored every drive once the Bills went to that style of prevent defense. The result was a completely avoidable loss. The Bills defense also allowed the short stuff when facing Mac Jones and the Patriots, even though that Patriots offense was built around taking the short stuff. Result: Mac Jones put up Montana-like numbers, and another Bills loss. The primary reason for the late season win streak was because the defense tightened up. McDermott had gotten away from the soft zone/prevent defense which had failed so abysmally earlier in the season. The offensive improvement under Brady is mostly a mirage. He got more drives per game, causing overall numbers to go up. But his points per drive stat was about the same as it had been under Dorsey. When the Bills' passing offense was at its best, the team came within 13 seconds of a postseason win over the Chiefs. That was despite a near-total defensive collapse (two defensive stops). If an elite passing offense is good enough to carry the team almost to victory over the Chiefs, despite pretty much no defense, why get away from that type of offense? Are there times when the play-calling should be run heavy? Absolutely! The Dallas defense was selling out against the pass, while daring us to beat them with the run. You run the ball all day against a defense like that. I want the OL and RBs to be good enough to punish that particular type of defensive misbehavior. It's one thing to run the ball all day against a defense like that. And it's another thing to take the ball out of your best player's hands, in order to run James Cook up the middle for a 3 yard gain. I recall that Brady called slightly more running plays than passing plays. That's the wrong ratio. A lower octane offense. If he was doing that as a temporary measure, due to Allen playing hurt, or Diggs fading down the stretch, fine. I can respect that. But if he genuinely wants to run the ball at least as often as he passes, then he's the wrong OC and needs to be replaced.
  12. What would make me happy: the Bills pass at least 60% of the time, if not more. Our WR corps is either good this year, or else Beane invests the necessary draft capital to make it good for next year. What would make me sad: the Bills de-prioritize the passing offense. They run the ball at least 50% of the time, as part of, gag, "complimentary football." They draft WRs who are also good run blockers. More resources are devoted to the defense, while the offense is denied any premium players at the WR position. The team's best asset is Josh Allen. Building around that asset would make me happy. Getting away from that asset, and doing other stuff instead, would make me sad. Will I be happy or sad? I don't know yet. Ask me again next year, and I should have a more concrete answer.
  13. You make good points. That said . . . look at your own team, the Chiefs. After trading away Tyreek Hill, I think you guys used 3 first or second round picks on searching for his replacement. One of those picks turned into Rashee Rice. Not sure how the other two worked out. Now Rice is in a bit of trouble. Suppose Beane had said, "We need a WR also, and I trust KC's front office more than I trust my own scouting staff. Therefore, I'm going to draft each of the three prospects KC wants, before the Chiefs are able to take them." Had that been his strategy a few years ago, he'd have two disappointments and a guy in legal trouble. At the end of the day, a guy like Beane needs to be true to his own board, rather than getting too caught up in someone else's. As a GM, there is literally no substitute for good talent evaluation. If you have several WRs graded similarly, trading down is logical. If those were Beane's player grades, he has to act on that. Personally, I think that taking Coleman over McConkey was a very poor decision. But that's just one man's opinion, and we'll see how much or how little that opinion is worth in a couple years or so. I'd love to be wrong about Coleman. Josh Allen is the most valuable player in Bills franchise history, but his Super Bowl opportunities are being squandered by a bad supporting cast and sub-par defensive coaching in the playoffs. If Coleman proves me wrong, that's one less thing dragging down Allen's career.
  14. Well . . . not necessarily. Maybe Beane's thought process was the following: If I stay at 28, my guy is Coleman. If I trade down from 28 to 33, I'm pretty sure Coleman will still be there. But let's say I'm wrong about that, and Coleman is gone. I've got some other WRs graded almost as highly as Coleman. If I trade down, my upside is guaranteed: I know I'm getting the extra picks. There probably won't be a downside: Coleman will probably still be there. But if there is a downside it will be small, because I'll be able to take some other WR with almost as good a grade as Coleman.
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