Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

He was also saying to Shakir specifically before, weirdly stopped saying that, almost like he was laughably wrong, now that he's saying this 30% thing conveniently leaves him out of it, so is it still 30% when he was throwing 20 yard throws to Shakir?

 

 

Oh now Shakir is Jerry Rice in his prime.

 

If the play design was for 2023 Tyreek Hill it was still both a bad situational play call with a low likelihood of completion.   

 

Incomplete........you find yourself in 3rd and 9 with a struggling kicker waiting in the wings.

 

Complete.........the Chiefs get the ball back with like 1:50 on the clock knowing that they are playing 4 down football when they'd been gouging the Bills defense all day.  

 

Remind me how far they got in just 12 seconds in a similar situation in the 2021 divisional playoff?  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

16 minutes ago, Logic said:

I would just like to say, after a few weeks of seeing how much personality and character Keon has, how smart and how hard of a worker he seems to be, etc...

I will be rooting incredibly hard for this kid to succeed and make me look like a bozo. I've been very vocal about not liking the pick and not being wild about the prospect. That said, I'm not one of those "hope to see the player fail in order to confirm my take and make me look smart" kind of people. I'd waaaay rather be proven wrong, the way I was with Josh Allen.

Few players are as likable as Keon Coleman. Few have endeared themselves to Bills fans as quickly as he has. He is clearly a very physically talented player, and he's clearly a good and funny and likable dude. His succeeding will help the Bills succeed. I will be rooting hard for him for his sake, for the Bills' sake, and for the sake of getting to continue to see his comedic gifts and seemingly great character on display for years to come.

Go Keon! Go Bills!

I will also throw my hat into the " pre draft skeptic" camp, though I immediately began rationalizing it 😅 

 

but I can't deny that however he plays, Coleman is a likeable dude. I didn't realize how much the "what is Diggs feeling" stuff bothered me until it was a non factor.

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Complete.........the Chiefs get the ball back with like 1:50 on the clock knowing that they are playing 4 down football when they'd been gouging the Bills defense all day.

I mean the defense had just made them punt for us to have had a chance at all, but sure your hypothetical other situation might have worked therefore clearly it's the better decision, then again it might have also not worked for a bunch of other reasons.

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Oh now Shakir is Jerry Rice in his prime.

Note how this wasn't an answer. 🤷‍♂️

[pi2000]

As time passes the more I believe the offense will struggle due to lack of talented WRs.    

 

I like Coleman, but I don't see him being very productive his rookie season.   

 

Simply too much to learn in this offense for a rookie 2nd rounder to step in right away and contribute.    

 

That said, Kincaid could have a monster year as he will likely be the #1 target for the majority of the season.      

 

However, if teams decide to take away Kincaid I'm afrraid the offense will struggle mightily.     They just don't have the weapons.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

1) It's just a statistical fact that 20+ air yard attempts are low completion percentage throws.  
 

 

I already addressed this in my last post.

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

2)  We've already established that 20+ air yard throws are all low % throws.   Nobody completes those in volume half the time, let alone the near 60% league completion average.  And every range of passes attempted includes "throw aways and drops".   In fact, there are A LOT more of both of those within 20 air yards of the LOS than beyond that.   Think sack-avoids, screen dirts etc..    

 

I hard disagree that’s been established.  Not all 20 yard throws are equal, and you know enough about football to realize that.  The concept you want to lump every 20 yard throw into a single category is wild to me.  Kincaid runs up field 20 yards and does a curl wide open and Josh has a clear shot at thin he is going to complete that throw nearly every time.  Josh throws 20+ yard out down field to a blanketed Davis who also has to worry about not only making the catch, but also getting his feet down, preventing the pass break up or even turnover is a low % throw.  Josh drops back at 22 yard line and sees nothing open and throws it away out the back of endzone that’s 100% incomplete rate.

 

Sorry, you’re just being stubborn here to hold on to the point you want to make.  And that route and throw to Shakir was a routine throw Josh will make at a high percentage of the time and has made MANY times in his career to lesser receivers.  

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

3) So when Josh attempted 72 throws of 20+ air yards on the season and 70% of them fell incomplete are you claiming that he was "stepped on" on those 70% incompletions?  
 

 

Dude come on, you know too much to post this kind of nonsense.  This is so over the top, you know exactly what I said and this is not it.  Let’s keep this in the realm of normal conversation rather than ridiculous statements.  I gave you many reasons that contribute to that and you come back and claim I said he was stepped on 70% of the time.  I shouldn’t have even replied to this statement it’s so ridiculous.

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

You are the one grossly exaggerating.    Never at any point from the play being called thru the ball landing way off target was it anything close to a given that the throw would be successful.    You are just up in your emotions about it and can't be rational.

 

 

 

Sorry man, I haven’t over exaggerated anything.  And honestly I have no emotions about this what so ever, but no disrespect, it does feel like you have quite a bit of emotions about it to the point you are just posting stuff that is beneath the better stuff I’ve come to expect from you.  

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Roundybout said:

 

 

I just came here to post this.  That's pretty awesome and made a fan for life

[Mat68]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Factually not "techically".

 

I am correct that the Bills completed less than 1/3 of the 20+ air yards throws they attempted in the 2023 season (which is about 10th best in the NFL).

 

Therefore making it a play call with a statistically low probability of succeeding to begin with.

 

Yet I have been told in no uncertain terms by @Alphadawg7 (among others) that they apparently complete that throw 100% of the time....if not for.........pressure???

 

Because who would EVER have expected to see pressure on an obvious passing down? 

 

The arguments that people try to make to excuse the stupidity of that play call are absurd.

 

I understand why though..........because to criticize the play is to also criticize Josh Allen for running it and also dirting the throw in the end zone when he had a safer throw underneath and plenty of time to work with.   And ultimately,  some fans won't attribute even a fraction of a percent of the blame for the team not winning a game on Allen.    

 

The reason Allen is better than Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick and any qb in Buffalo Bills history is he will take that throw and chance.  Team was still in FG range.  Still had 3rd down.  If your franchise Qb passes up that throw you dont have a franchise Qb.  Future hall of famer made a play knocked Dawkins back into him.  Identical throw he made multiple times in 21 to Davis down the stretch.  They knew the defense look and coverage and threw it to the open guy.  Why are we still talking about it.  KC had one of the best defenses in the league and good red zone defense.  Impossible to assume they could just score later.  Such an easy thing to do why didn't they pick up the 3rd down on the next play?  

[GASabresIUFan]

I think people need a refresher on which receivers were and were not effective for the Bills last season.

 

After week 6, these were the top receivers numbers through the playoffs (players listed by total yards)

 

1.  Kincaid - 659 yards on 83 tgts/ 64 catches 3TDs; 77% reception rate, 7.94 yards per target

2. Shakir - 646 yards on 52/45 3TDs (2 in the playoffs); 86.5% receptions rate, 12.42 yards/target

3. Diggs - 636 yards on 111/68 3TDs; 61.3% reception rate, 5.73 yards/target

4. Davis - 405 yards on 51/22 3TDs; 43% reception rate, 7.94 yards/target

5. Cook - 331 yards on 45/38 4TDs; 84.4% reception rate; 7.36 yards/target

 

Is it really any wonder that Beane moved on from Diggs and Davis, while keeping Shakir, Cook and Kincaid.  They are younger, cheaper and probably better at this point.

 

We need to move past this "must have a no. 1 receiver" crap.  It’s time to spread the ball around to players who actually catch the vast majority of their targets and stop lamenting about the loss of an over 30 vet with declining production who clearly isn’t a fit for Brady’s offense.  Give me a roster with 5 or 6 guys with 500-900 yards receiving next season and I’ll give you a playoff team that will be hard to stop.  

Edited May 21 by GASabresIUFan

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

 

 

I hard disagree that’s been established.  Not all 20 yard throws are equal, and you know enough about football to realize that.  The concept you want to lump every 20 yard throw into a single category is wild to me.  

 

 And that route and throw to Shakir was a routine throw Josh will make at a high percentage of the time

 

 

If you don't like the stat,  choose your statistical field and represent your argument.    Instead of utterly ridiculous, unsupported "opinions" like "they make that every time" or that it was the smart play call with 2 minutes left on 2nd and 9.

 

20+ air yards is simply a COMMON point of demarcation.    The LOS was the 26 and the ball needed to arrive at least 7-8 yards deep into the end zone.   So it was over 30 and closer to 35.   Let me refresh your memory:

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

As time passes the more I believe the offense will struggle due to lack of talented WRs.    

 

I like Coleman, but I don't see him being very productive his rookie season.   

 

Simply too much to learn in this offense for a rookie 2nd rounder to step in right away and contribute.    

 

That said, Kincaid could have a monster year as he will likely be the #1 target for the majority of the season.      

 

However, if teams decide to take away Kincaid I'm afrraid the offense will struggle mightily.     They just don't have the weapons.  

But if the plan is to have Coleman/Samuel split time as WR2 things make sense.  This gives time for Coleman to develop.  The first week of June is coming!

[Warcodered]

37 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you don't like the stat,  choose your statistical field and represent your argument.    Instead of utterly ridiculous, unsupported "opinions" like "they make that every time" or that it was the smart play call with 2 minutes left on 2nd and 9.

 

20+ air yards is simply a COMMON point of demarcation.    The LOS was the 26 and the ball needed to arrive at least 7-8 yards deep into the end zone.   So it was over 30 and closer to 35.   Let me refresh your memory:

 

 

Right your on the 26 yard line in your home stadium in good conditions, why the ***** wouldn't you play like your Kicker should make that ***** FG if worst case scenario you don't pick it up in the next down you still ***** have. But I'm sorry no let's not throw to an open WR in the endzone to take the lead in the Playoffs.

[Maine-iac]

49 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you don't like the stat,  choose your statistical field and represent your argument.    Instead of utterly ridiculous, unsupported "opinions" like "they make that every time" or that it was the smart play call with 2 minutes left on 2nd and 9.

 

20+ air yards is simply a COMMON point of demarcation.    The LOS was the 26 and the ball needed to arrive at least 7-8 yards deep into the end zone.   So it was over 30 and closer to 35.   Let me refresh your memory:

 

 

Seeing how Allen had already hit two guys dead in the hands 20 or more yards down the field he probably felt he had a good chance of hitting another guy in the hands.  I'd argue he should have hit Shakir on 3rd and 9 for what would have been probably a 7 or 8 yard gain all day.  Then think about going for it.  On 2nd and 9 with a guy wide open in the end zone you throw him the ball.

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Right your on the 26 yard line in your home stadium in good conditions, why the ***** wouldn't you play like your Kicker should make that ***** FG if worst case scenario you don't pick it up in the next down you still ***** have. But I'm sorry no let's not throw to an open WR in the endzone to take the lead in the Playoffs.

 

You don't play to give Tyler Bass a 44 yard field goal attempt there because he's been wildly inconsistent to that point.    

 

Just like you don't lean on a defense that has been getting speedboated backward all day(an outrageous 7.7 yards per play versus the 5.3 typically allowed by Buffalo).    

 

Those units were weaknesses........and they had a pretty clear path to not needing much, if any, help from them to win the game.

 

 You must try to cover for them there.......not let them decide the game for you.

 

Obviously.

 

This has been touched on before, as have most of these stats.........but the average time for an NFL QB to throw this year was 2.78 seconds.  

 

Allen released that ball at 2.85 seconds.

 

That ball has to come out sooner than that on an OBVIOUS passing down.

 

It was by no means the extraordinary play by KC's front that it was made out to be.   

 

 

 

Edited May 20 by BADOLBILZ

[joshhasbighands]

Looking forward to see how Coleman looks in OTAs. I guess it doesn't mean all that much at this stage but want to see him build a partnership with Josh

[Mark Vader]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

I would just like to say, after a few weeks of seeing how much personality and character Keon has, how smart and how hard of a worker he seems to be, etc...

I will be rooting incredibly hard for this kid to succeed and make me look like a bozo. I've been very vocal about not liking the pick and not being wild about the prospect. That said, I'm not one of those "hope to see the player fail in order to confirm my take and make me look smart" kind of people. I'd waaaay rather be proven wrong, the way I was with Josh Allen.

Few players are as likable as Keon Coleman. Few have endeared themselves to Bills fans as quickly as he has. He is clearly a very physically talented player, and he's clearly a good and funny and likable dude. His succeeding will help the Bills succeed. I will be rooting hard for him for his sake, for the Bills' sake, and for the sake of getting to continue to see his comedic gifts and seemingly great character on display for years to come.

Go Keon! Go Bills!

I feel the same way. I was not thrilled with the pick of Coleman, but I'm also not cheering for him to fail.

 

His attitude is great and he's got a terrific personality. If the staff believes in him, then I hope he can shine as a player and become a great player for the Bills.

[14774]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I just came here to post this.  That's pretty awesome and made a fan for life

I sincerely hope this young man develops into a good football player and has a good career. He is easy to root for. I hope his attitude never changes. 

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Factually not "techically".

 

I am correct that the Bills completed less than 1/3 of the 20+ air yards throws they attempted in the 2023 season (which is about 10th best in the NFL).

 

Therefore making it a play call with a statistically low probability of succeeding to begin with.

 

Yet I have been told in no uncertain terms by @Alphadawg7 (among others) that they apparently complete that throw 100% of the time....if not for.........pressure???

 

Because who would EVER have expected to see pressure on an obvious passing down? 

 

The arguments that people try to make to excuse the stupidity of that play call are absurd.

 

I understand why though..........because to criticize the play is to also criticize Josh Allen for running it and also dirting the throw in the end zone when he had a safer throw underneath and plenty of time to work with.   And ultimately,  some fans won't attribute even a fraction of a percent of the blame for the team not winning a game on Allen.    

 

well

 I have mentioned that Allen needs to make the reads and get that ball spread around with the players we have currently.

And i don't think he has done as well as he could. Or certainly not to my hopes and liking

and I mentioned , Brady needs to enable that thinking within Josh

Kromer needs to get him time on some of the multiple breaking routes

 and Allen need to memorize his checkdowns. This could work.

Josh Allen is still capable of growth and maturation of mind.

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you don't like the stat,  choose your statistical field and represent your argument.    Instead of utterly ridiculous, unsupported "opinions" like "they make that every time" or that it was the smart play call with 2 minutes left on 2nd and 9.

 

20+ air yards is simply a COMMON point of demarcation.    The LOS was the 26 and the ball needed to arrive at least 7-8 yards deep into the end zone.   So it was over 30 and closer to 35.   Let me refresh your memory:

 

 

Josh has had a trend for a few years to ignore underneath routes or RB checkdowns.

 I bet Quintin Morris was open often last few years, and he usually caught what little was thrown to him

Josh needs to open his mind  and accept that its okay to not play hero ball

 

Love you Josh 💪

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Josh has had a trend for a few years to ignore underneath routes or RB checkdowns.

 I bet Quintin Morris was open often last few years, and he usually caught what little was thrown to him

Josh needs to open his mind  and accept that its okay to not play hero ball

 

Love you Josh 💪

 

 

What's inexplicable is that after the failed deep throw to Diggs they seemed to have adopted a plan to control the clock and not give KC a chance to answer a score.  

 

Then they got to the 2 minute warning and lost their minds.

[Mikie2times]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40187400/keon-coleman-buffalo-bills-friendship-bracelet

 

Kid gets it.