Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[starrymessenger]

1 minute ago, Nephilim17 said:

I think "explosion" is not quite the right word but perhaps what @Mat68 was referring to is that Coleman is fluid and efficient when catching the ball and transitioning into moving forward. I've seen Cover 1 breakdowns of this, I believe, and it's similar to Kincaid: as they are preparing to catch, they are pointing their body and almost in the transition of moving forward before or at the time of the catch. Many players don't do this well but Coleman does so he gets more YAC than you would think based on his timed speed.

I completely agree with this and think to have seen it in his tape. 

[Mat68]

23 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I think "explosion" is not quite the right word but perhaps what @Mat68 was referring to is that Coleman is fluid and efficient when catching the ball and transitioning into moving forward. I've seen Cover 1 breakdowns of this, I believe, and it's similar to Kincaid: as they are preparing to catch, they are pointing their body and almost in the transition of moving forward before or at the time of the catch. Many players don't do this well but Coleman does so he gets more YAC than you would think based on his timed speed.

No I meant to say explosiveness.  10 yard split, vert and broad jump measure explosiveness. Thats why they do those drills.  He is above average in all of those.  He is good off the line.  Thats explosiveness.  High pointing a ball is explosiveness.  His fluidity is what makes me think he can develop his route running.  His current strengths are due to how explosive an athlete he is.  His potential is how fluid he is.   

[starrymessenger]

56 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

No I meant to say explosiveness.  10 yard split, vert and broad jump measure explosiveness. Thats why they do those drills.  He is above average in all of those.  He is good off the line.  Thats explosiveness.  High pointing a ball is explosiveness.  His fluidity is what makes me think he can develop his route running.  His current strengths are due to how explosive an athlete he is.  His potential is how fluid he is.   

His tested "explosiveness" is good and he does seem to have varied release packages but if you understand it to mean gaining vertical separation by stacking DBs that's not his game.

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

His tested "explosiveness" is good and he does seem to have varied release packages but if you understand it to mean gaining vertical separation by stacking DBs that's not his game.

I do not.  Torque vs horsepower sort of speak.  Those numbers help explain his ability off the line.  Down field going up for passes.  Im arguing his explosiveness will help in the majority of the routes in the short and intermediate.  Something Davis lacked.  Coleman will make his fair share of plays down field but in different ways.  His ability at the line doesn't allow him to stack but should open up he the back shoulder.  Allen mentioned that.  That could develop into an out pitch for the offense.  
 

[f0neguy]

The fact that Coleman returned punts in college (and played D1 B-Ball) tells me he’s elusive.  Now you take that elusiveness and put it in a 6’4” 200+ pound athlete.  I think with some coaching, he’ll be able to get off the line okay.

[MasterStrategist]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Cool, and let's just skip the plays where the ball was way out of the ballpark and he had zero chance of catching it.  I know that the majority here loved to blame Davis for those, but in fairness it's not the receiver's fault.  ... unless it was a blatantly wrong route or cut or something like that.  I don't recall a lot if any of those re: Coleman.  

 

Splash plays are good, but out of the ordinary ones is what we're looking for, not ones that JAG WRs can make under the same circumstances.  

 

 

 

That's what's nice about Youtube, people do the work for you so that all you have to do is review.  Years ago you could write to the school and they'd give you side/EZ views of every player on O or D, for free, all you'd have to do is ask, ... and tell 'em you're doing a draft review for publishing.  LOL  I'm not sure what happens if you simply ask.  But now so much is on YT.  

 

And yes, your own eyes.  That was originally my challenge, for people to watch all his plays and see whether or not it passes the sniff test contrasted with the narrative(s), particularly those narratives here, which always seem to grow once we draft a player.  LOL  

 

 

 

It did.  I didn't know much about Coleman before the Draft.  I also didn't know much about any of the WRs.  Sure, I'd perused a few dozen draft profiles, and in the case of any of the half-dozen or so WRs that I thought would be available for us, also looked at their stats (in light of opponents) and game logs, etc.  (i.e. not MHJ, LOL)  

 

Unlike everyone else, I don't claim to be knowledgeable in depth about the top-100 +/- players in the Draft.  LOL  I do the research in much depth after the Draft.  Much easier to do in-depth research on three or four players than the time-involved impossibility of doing it for the top third of the draft.  LOL 

 

But the narrative was about what a beast he was in contested catches despite not being a burner, which IMO is what we needed, and not just a 200 yard/season burner, but one that would be capable, next season if not this one, of putting up 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs.  Either way, few claim that he's a #1 with that potential, even here.  

 

But as I watched that video, it struck me all the passes in traffic that he dropped or otherwise couldn't catch.  PFF wrote that piece that I posted above with his "contested catch" numbers compared to other WRs that are not noted for "contested catches," and he ranked poorly against them.  So my first question was, why the hype if his metrics are subpar.  That's when I decided to look for myself, at every play, and database it all.  When I have time, I'm going to make a breakdown video of them all in varying groupings.  I'll probably create a Youtube channel to put 'em on since they'll be too big to post directly.  But the cats of contested catches, great catches, bubble-screen/screen plays, etc.  

 

 

 

Don't even include the uncatchable ones.  In fairness we can dismiss those as being irrelevant.  

 

How about if we focus on Catch, Drop, and Contested?   Essentially, let's in essence look for plays that will work in the NFL against NFL caliber competition, plays that he'll contribute something on.  

 

On a side note, I did count, of his 50 catches, 16, a third, were caught behind the LoS, which is also concerning.  That leaves 34 catches all season, with 11 of 'em having been made against LSU and Syracuse, that were "downfield," leaving precious few on a per-game basis for the other 10 games on average.  2.3/game that is.  

 

My general assessment is that we have a very Gabe Davis type WR without the ability that Davis had to go deep.  Davis too was a good contested catch WR.  He also had a notably better senior season on the opposite end of the scale as Coleman.  Both played 12 games. 

 

Davis had 7 games of 98+ yards, 10 of 68+, 5 of 106+, and 3 of 151+. 

Coleman had 2 games of more than 86, 9 games of 66 or fewer.  

Davis also had nearly twice the yards.  Both were the #1 WRs on their teams.  

 

I suspect, without evidence, that McBeane were trying to replace Davis, whom despite fans not liking the guy, Allen and they seem to have loved.  

 

Two things I'll add, first, his games against LSU, whose Defense was below-average and whose passing Defense was even worse, Syracuse, whose passing Defense was below-average, and to a lesser extent Clemson, which had a good defense, carry his profile.  After that though, it's difficult to find a game that should be considered great or even close.  So essentially we drafted a WR with 9 unimpressive games, and 2 impressive ones and one more leaning impressive.  

 

The second thing, it's always concerning when the personality of a player runs away with the narrative without the on-field production to back it up, in this case as a completely untested rookie.  Last season it was Sherfield in a notably lesser context.  People, understandably to a limited extent, elevate expectations based upon a player's soft traits and characteristics.  

 

So anyway, in the following post I'll run through his LSU passes in detail and we'll go from there.  

 

Thanks again!!  

 

 

Sounds great, agree with the approach to analyze.  Appreciate this, will be fun to compare and I'm likely to learn alot more about Coleman in this exercise.

 

Didn't realize that many of his catches were at/behind LOS, very interesting and thanks for sharing.  Brady definitely likes his WR screens, another asset having Coleman for targets/blocking ability maybe more so.

 

Agree, seemed like Beane was trying to at least replace the Gabe skillset (downfield threat/contested catch, and blocking).  Just from a high-level, I think Coleman is certainly more raw than Gabe entering the league (from a route running standpoint/downfield).  Coleman has more potential though, and definitely brings more versatility in his game, being more fluid/agile than Gabe, IMO.  

 

The Gabe vs Coleman production difference in college, is difficult for me to fairly assess...without more research into that Central Florida team.  I know FL St had a good ground game, one of the best backs in college this year, and a strong defense.  I can't be certain, but seemed like FL ST did play a true complementary/conservative at times offense.

 

Cool, I'll start looking at Game 2.

[MasterStrategist]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, so let's start with LSU then.  LSU's defense was below average ranking 82nd of 133 in PA, and 101st in Pass Efficiency Defense.  

 

Coleman had 11 passes thrown his way, caught 9.  

 

Add in your take after mine.  I annotated the bad passes but  didn't discuss them for the most part.  

 

1 ...  Short left, bad pass 

 

2 ... Looks like he ran a decent route, but a fairly routine one for the NFL.  Bad pass 

 

3 ... This is a great play but again, a fairly routine one by NFL standards and against a zone D on a poor pass D team, and as pointed out before.  The only player that had a shot at tackling him was Zy Alexander, noted for his poor tackling, and who was also wasn't exactly in position to even tackle coleman in a massive size mismatch in that zone as well.  Again, I put this down as a great play, not necessarily as something that Coleman will repeat in the NFL.  Great pass by Travis, whom Coleman claimed was the best QB in the Draft BTW (also concerning, LOL) in a zone, but after Alexander whiffs, it's nothing but green, with an unneeded blocker, to the EZ.  

 

Agree on 1 and 2.  On 3, I do agree on most of your point.  Except I give him more credit on the YAC, showing his agility and ability to continue running as he catches it (not a trait of all WRs, Gabe struggled in any tight spaces after catch/except deep).  His gauntlet performance aligns with this too.

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

4 ... Terrible play, terrible throw.  Nothing to see here.  Another screen attempt however.  

 

5 ... A 5-yard rolling out.  Routine at best.  

 

6 ... A bumbling and failed bubble-screen attempt on 1st-and-10.  If they use him like that in the NFL, ... LOL  

 

7 ... A quite catchable drop just across the 1st-down line on 1/15.  Unimpressive 

 

8 ... Great contested grab 1-on-1.  Impressive play  

 

9 ... 5 yard bubble-screen for a gain of 5.  Nothing at all impressive there.  

Agree on above.

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

10 ... This is one of his few notable man-on-man plays.  No separation here, but a good contested catch downfield on a size mismatch.  

Agree on contested catch. But would say he had separation to the post, on what looked like an option/JT threw a seam, otherwise this resembles a deep post to Gabe TD.

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

11 ... Another failed bubble-screen on 2/3 for 0 gain.   We can credit the crap play-call for it, but that's what he ran quite often.  

 

12 ... Backfield crossing route on a play that typically won't work in the NFL.  Nothing particularly special there otherwise, particularly for a large WR like him.  

 

13 ... Great grab in the corner EZ for the TD.  Perfect throw it should be added.  

 

Agree on rest of these.  Would call #13 a contested catch as well.

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

This was his best game easily and the first of the season, and the one that everyone defers to for purposes of substantiating how good he is.  After that game he posted 41 catches for 536 yards, for an average in the remaining 11 games of 3.7 catches for 48 YPG.  I count three notable plays in this game that were attributable to individual skill.  (8, 10, and 13)  But again, I also discount it slightly given that LSU had a garbage pass D, which ranked 121st of 133 in passing yards allowed and 105th in Opponent Passing Rating allowed.  

 

 

 

 

Agree this was his best game.  By my count 3/3 on contested catches, 100%.  1 drop and 9 catches, 90% catch rate.  Showed off downfield ability and contested catch, as well as good ability on the plant for a big man.  Drop was horrible.

 

Overall a great game against a poor pass defense, with a couple GREAT Qb throws and some very bad throws.  That post read, is a Josh special and most NFL QBs put that on the money/make correct read. That alone likely cost him another 60 Yards and another TD.  Poor drop cost himself 20+ yards.

 

And Colemans comments about JT, I see that as just a close player bond.  See that all the time in NFL, famous example is Rodgers praising Kumerow like he was some stud WR.  So I certainly don't hold that against the kid, rather shows me he's likely a good teammate off the field (which as you said is only 1 piece to the puzzle)

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Sounds great, agree with the approach to analyze.  Appreciate this, will be fun to compare and I'm likely to learn alot more about Coleman in this exercise.

 

Didn't realize that many of his catches were at/behind LOS, very interesting and thanks for sharing.  Brady definitely likes his WR screens, another asset having Coleman for targets/blocking ability maybe more so.

 

Agree, seemed like Beane was trying to at least replace the Gabe skillset (downfield threat/contested catch, and blocking).  Just from a high-level, I think Coleman is certainly more raw than Gabe entering the league (from a route running standpoint/downfield).  Coleman has more potential though, and definitely brings more versatility in his game, being more fluid/agile than Gabe, IMO.  

 

The Gabe vs Coleman production difference in college, is difficult for me to fairly assess...without more research into that Central Florida team.  I know FL St had a good ground game, one of the best backs in college this year, and a strong defense.  I can't be certain, but seemed like FL ST did play a true complementary/conservative at times offense.

 

Cool, I'll start looking at Game 2.

 

It will be fun.  Agree with most of that.  FSU had the 77th ranked rushing team last season, and their RB, Trey Benson, drafted in the early 3rd and now on Arizona, had 156 carries for 906 yards.  So it's not as if Coleman's production should have suffered from that.  

 

Also, here are the two draft profiles for the pair per nfl.com, there's quite a bit of overlap and their metrics are nearly identical.  Some shared weaknesses.  

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/gabriel-davis/32004441-5632-9675-38f5-3e009da4e98e

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/keon-coleman/3200434f-4c29-5571-54fa-77236b775ae1

 

And you're right, Brady seems to like the screens, but that's a huge reason why Allen's production suffered.  We've discussed a lot of that already, but again, that's what McD wants.  Don't think for two seconds that Brady's driving that rig by himself without instructions from dispatch.  

 

 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree on 1 and 2.  On 3, I do agree on most of your point.  Except I give him more credit on the YAC, showing his agility and ability to continue running as he catches it (not a trait of all WRs, Gabe struggled in any tight spaces after catch/except deep).  His gauntlet performance aligns with this too.

 

Well that's the thing, it wasn't really a tight space, there's no one within many yards in any direction even partially positioned to make a tackle.  Alexander was also out of position, which we can credit to him, not Coleman.  There's a reason why LSU's pass D was in the bottom quartile.  

 

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree on contested catch. But would say he had separation to the post, on what looked like an option/JT threw a seam, otherwise this resembles a deep post to Gabe TD.

 

Keep in mind however, the coverage now will be much better.  

 

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Agree this was his best game.  By my count 3/3 on contested catches, 100%.  1 drop and 9 catches, 90% catch rate.  Showed off downfield ability and contested catch, as well as good ability on the plant for a big man.  Drop was horrible.

 

Overall a great game against a poor pass defense, with a couple GREAT Qb throws and some very bad throws.  That post read, is a Josh special and most NFL QBs put that on the money/make correct read. That alone likely cost him another 60 Yards and another TD.  Poor drop cost himself 20+ yards.

 

OK, so let's roll with your take here.  

 

As to the QB read, again, keep in mind that Coleman will first have to shake the coverage, which is one of his weaknesses.  After that, given coverage, we get into the "contested catches" thing, and as we go down thru the games we'll see some more regarding those.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

hey @PBF81 - feel free to add your comments below mine.

 

Game 2: Southern Miss (Defense: 15th PA, 98th PY, 125th SP+ Defense, out of 133)

 

1. Ok route, no separation - failed contested catch downfield.  Had both hands on it/DB gets his arm to knock out ball as Coleman tries to secure.  I'll call this a drop

 

2. Good post route, from slot. Easily beats his man, Travis throws it late & too much loft, should have led him into EZ.  Pass broken up by DB/S arms.  Missed TD opp.  This is on JT.  I'm not calling this contested or a drop/not when it's a poor throw & 2 players are in position to make a play. If Coleman is "elite", he comes down with it.  But nobody on our roster makes that even possible LY.  Not graded

 

3. Bubble pass, nothing special/penalty for WR holding.  Not graded

 

4. Designed QB roll-out/Crosser by Coleman.  Defense keeps good zone integrity/PBU by defense.  Not graded

 

5. Very good route/comeback - gets first on 3rd and 15.  Good hands, Great YAC down the sideline avoiding 2 defenders in tight area.  Catch, Very Good route/hands, Great YAC

 

6. Easy PA TD pass/catch. Past this in our playbook, Gabe special.

 

Easy win for FL St, ran for 307 yards/shut down Southern Miss - hence fewer targets for Keon & I only think it's fair to grade 3 of his 6 targets.  Overall, I'd call this an OK game, only b/c he made a 'splash'/highlight reel play on #5.  But missed out on a chance to show off elite contested catch ability on a couple downfield throws.  Not a game FL St needed passing game to win.

 

Contested Catch: Game - 0/1.  Season - 3/4 =75%

Catch Rate: Game - 2/3. Season - 11/13=85%

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

hey @PBF81 - feel free to add your comments below mine.

 

Game 2: Southern Miss (Defense: 15th PA, 98th PY, 125th SP+ Defense, out of 133)

 

1. Ok route, no separation - failed contested catch downfield.  Had both hands on it/DB gets his arm to knock out ball as Coleman tries to secure.  I'll call this a drop

 

Agree 

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

2. Good post route, from slot. Easily beats his man, Travis throws it late & too much loft, should have led him into EZ.  Pass broken up by DB/S arms.  Missed TD opp.  This is on JT.  I'm not calling this contested or a drop/not when it's a poor throw & 2 players are in position to make a play. If Coleman is "elite", he comes down with it.  But nobody on our roster makes that even possible LY.  Not graded

 

The two DBs on that play, one went undrafted and will likely never play in the NFL.  The other was a sophomore S with almost no playing experience.  The ball was right smack in Coleman's hands.  I wouldn't call it a drop, but I would definitely call it a contested catch opp just like PFF did, and given all that we've heard about Coleman, it was uninspiring.  

 

Note that Coleman also didn't have to stop short and jump-ball it, he could easily have taken another step or two and been pretty close to catching that ball in stride.  Watch it again in slo-mo.  Either way, the two defenders were nothing defenders, the coverage will be much tougher in the NFL.  

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

3. Bubble pass, nothing special/penalty for WR holding.  Not graded

 

Another bubble-screen as you point out.  Those plays simply aren't going to amount to much here.   

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

4. Designed QB roll-out/Crosser by Coleman.  Defense keeps good zone integrity/PBU by defense.  Not graded

 

Well defended pass.  Coleman wasn't particularly open.  

 

Remember, we're looking for plays that are inspiring here.  That wasn't one.  

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

5. Very good route/comeback - gets first on 3rd and 15.  Good hands, Great YAC down the sideline avoiding 2 defenders in tight area.  Catch, Very Good route/hands, Great YAC

 

This is a 3rd-and-14 play with a deep zone.  His defender, that inexperienced soph S again, was 19 yards beyond the LoS on a 3/14 when the ball was thrown.  LOL  The other defenders were deep too with the other three receivers that couldn't get open.  He completely whiffs on the tackle.  And lol, watch the next guy, that same undrafted CB, watch him try to make the tackle.  LOL, it's no wonder he has zero chance in the NFL.  It was an OK play by Coleman, and sure, YAC, but that's simply not going to happen here in the NFL.  

 

BTW, one thing that I noticed while watching the entire video, Coleman's rarely if ever doubled.  

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

6. Easy PA TD pass/catch. Past this in our playbook, Gabe special.

 

Agree, easy TD,  Good play, but entirely courtesy of a defensive lapse however.  How often does anyone see Coleman slipping open like that in the NFL?  It'll be rare to be sure.  

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Easy win for FL St, ran for 307 yards/shut down Southern Miss - hence fewer targets for Keon & I only think it's fair to grade 3 of his 6 targets.  Overall, I'd call this an OK game, only b/c he made a 'splash'/highlight reel play on #5.  But missed out on a chance to show off elite contested catch ability on a couple downfield throws.  Not a game FL St needed passing game to win.

 

Contested Catch: Game - 0/1.  Season - 3/4 =75%

Catch Rate: Game - 2/3. Season - 11/13=85%

 

Easy win over a Sun Belt Conf team that has zero defenders in the NFL in any significant capacity.  I also don't think any offensive players either.  We drafted Shawn Nelson (TE) from there about 15 years ago.  

 

I see absolutely nothing special from Coleman in this game given the talent lining up opposite him.  

 

BC next.  This should be interesting.  

 

 

[JerseyBills]

 

[section122]

I appreciate what you guys are doing @PBF81 and @MasterStrategist but are you only reviewing targets or are you reviewing every route he runs in the game?

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, section122 said:

I appreciate what you guys are doing @PBF81 and @MasterStrategist but are you only reviewing targets or are you reviewing every route he runs in the game?

Glad to.  Finding it interesting and learning more as I go, comparisons to @PBF81 analysis are helpful.

 

Unfortunately though, its just targets, as that's all I have access to right now.  I'd like to look at all snaps, to get a more comprehensive review of his route running, and blocking ability.

 

My impression of watching FL ST games this year, was that passing offense seemed quite vanilla at times.  I think even if we had all the tape, there'd be a bit of projecting on certain NFL routes/schemes.  Little I've seen of Mich ST targets, they certainly used Keon in more variety (less bubble screens, straight fades).

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

On 5/25/2024 at 9:21 PM, PBF81 said:

 

Agree 

 

 

The two DBs on that play, one went undrafted and will likely never play in the NFL.  The other was a sophomore S with almost no playing experience.  The ball was right smack in Coleman's hands.  I wouldn't call it a drop, but I would definitely call it a contested catch opp just like PFF did, and given all that we've heard about Coleman, it was uninspiring.  

 

Note that Coleman also didn't have to stop short and jump-ball it, he could easily have taken another step or two and been pretty close to catching that ball in stride.  Watch it again in slo-mo.  Either way, the two defenders were nothing defenders, the coverage will be much tougher in the NFL.  

 

 

Another bubble-screen as you point out.  Those plays simply aren't going to amount to much here.   

 

 

Well defended pass.  Coleman wasn't particularly open.  

 

Remember, we're looking for plays that are inspiring here.  That wasn't one.  

 

 

This is a 3rd-and-14 play with a deep zone.  His defender, that inexperienced soph S again, was 19 yards beyond the LoS on a 3/14 when the ball was thrown.  LOL  The other defenders were deep too with the other three receivers that couldn't get open.  He completely whiffs on the tackle.  And lol, watch the next guy, that same undrafted CB, watch him try to make the tackle.  LOL, it's no wonder he has zero chance in the NFL.  It was an OK play by Coleman, and sure, YAC, but that's simply not going to happen here in the NFL.  

 

BTW, one thing that I noticed while watching the entire video, Coleman's rarely if ever doubled.  

 

 

Agree, easy TD,  Good play, but entirely courtesy of a defensive lapse however.  How often does anyone see Coleman slipping open like that in the NFL?  It'll be rare to be sure.  

 

 

Easy win over a Sun Belt Conf team that has zero defenders in the NFL in any significant capacity.  I also don't think any offensive players either.  We drafted Shawn Nelson (TE) from there about 15 years ago.  

 

I see absolutely nothing special from Coleman in this game given the talent lining up opposite him.  

 

BC next.  This should be interesting.  

 

 

Agree 100% that this was a poor opponent to get much from, other than what we noted.

 

On play #2, post route, yeah I can see what you're saying and how PFF bucketed that.  I will split that out in a contested catch "double coverage" category & include overall, just to see how the #s shake out in the end.  Still think JT put that 5 yards too short, but it was a chance for Keon to still come down with it.  So I'll include it.  Thanks.

 

Agree BC will be better game to look at.

 

 

[wppete]

Hard at work 

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7cZ8W3vNgN/?igsh=eDlkMW9ndmR1Ymxk

[MasterStrategist]

Thanks @PBF81 for the discussion - feel free to add your comments below mine.

 

Game 3: Boston College (Defense: 3rd PA, 26th PY, 83rd SP+ Defense, out of 133)

 

1. Fade route from slot, OK coverage/zero separation.  Coleman had poor body control IMO, could have put on the brakes OR won the contested catch. No drop. Decent corner, Elijah Jones (3rd rounder Ariz) made the pass break-up, due to his length.  But Coleman should have won this route before Jones got his hand in.

 

2. Crosser route/defender drops into middle zone from sugar blitz look.  Just a poor decision by JT, throwing into heavy traffic what looked like a pre-snap decision.  Had his top slot open to the corner.  Pause at Q1 6:05, see what Coleman is looking into & deciding to sit down his route.  No drop.

 

3. Fade route.  In general this pass should NOT be thrown, unless it's an EZ shot. Coleman doesn't have any leverage on CB, unless the pass is made to the back shoulder.  Poor decision/pass by JT.  This was my biggest issue with JT/FL St offense in general, in how vanilla/street ball it was.  However, Coleman could have made a better attempt/body control but that pass was an easy PBU by CB (regardless of skill).  I'll call it a contested catch.  No drop.

 

4. Reverse to Coleman, well defended/not how I think Bills will use him.  FL St just trying to get Coleman involved, b/c of their lack of diversity in passing attack.

 

Overall, a poor passing game for FL St against a solid Pass Defense opponent.  Coleman didn't play well on the targets evaluated, and was taken off the stat sheet (his worse performance of year).  For the first time in 3 games, Coleman faced some corners with length/size - that neutralized him in general. 

 

These are the type of games (3 passing targets), where it'd be nice to see the other passing plays to see if Coleman "won" those routes/was open.  This is where we're at though, in terms of information to assess.  This is the back/forth that is difficult with Coleman to project; with a Avg/Below Avg college QB (reading defenses), vanilla offense/not much route variety, b/c FL st could get away with it.

 

Contested Catch: Game - 0/2.  Season - 3/7 =43% (Single coverage: 3/6=50%, Dbl Cov: 0/1=0%). 

(***Side note: By my assessment, 2 poorly thrown passes that contributed to misses OR another way of saying it, 3/5=60% on well-thrown passes & Zero times Coleman bailed out his QB.  To me so far, I'm seeing Keon as a solid option to let him go get it (true 50/50 guy), but not overly impressive.  So this is where Josh Allen might make a big difference in that %, based on decision making & specific match-ups.)

 

Catch Rate: Game - 0/0. Season - 11/13=85%

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Glad to.  Finding it interesting and learning more as I go, comparisons to @PBF81 analysis are helpful.

 

Unfortunately though, its just targets, as that's all I have access to right now.  I'd like to look at all snaps, to get a more comprehensive review of his route running, and blocking ability.

 

My impression of watching FL ST games this year, was that passing offense seemed quite vanilla at times.  I think even if we had all the tape, there'd be a bit of projecting on certain NFL routes/schemes.  Little I've seen of Mich ST targets, they certainly used Keon in more variety (less bubble screens, straight fades).

 

I'm not sure that the "other plays" would be all that enlightening.  A lot can be drawn from the every pass thing, although some of those can be dismissed as well.  (Poor throws, etc.)  

 

One thing that is noticeable is that Coleman doesn't typically draw the best coverage guys on D, in fact, to the contrary.  As to his play at MSU, I've only watched this highlight video, but I didn't notice a whole lot of difference in his use.  But consider, we can get into this video another time, but look at his big play at about the 2:50 mark vs. Washington.  On video it looks great.  What's not to like.  But if we view it in consideration of extrapolating his performance to the NFL, here are the particulars; 

 

First of all, the game was a blowout for Washington up to that point, which was the end of the 4th.  

Secondly, the guy covering him was LB Cam Bright, a senior, that went undrafted and is not playing in the NFL.  

Thirdly, Coleman barely beat the guy if we can even call it beating him.  

 

On that 24-yard TD catch vs. Wisconsin at the 5:20 mark, Coleman's catch is in that "contested catch" variety, but the CB covering him was a 5'10"/170 lb. freshman, and he had great coverage on Coleman the whole way.  So that's not really all that impressive.  He's not going to be facing that type of individual competition here.  

 

At about the 5:30 mark Coleman catches a nice deep throw, but again, the coverage is by a red-shirt senior, Jay Shaw, that went undrafted and never set foot in the NFL.  So how impressed are we supposed to be that he racks up yards against the equivalent of XFL or Canadian league talent here.  The next catch for a TD, same defender on another jump ball in a size mismatch.  

 

Indiana was his best game of that season based on the video, but Indiana also had the 120th ranked (131) passing yardage D and the 128th ranked passing TD D.  In short, one of the few worst.  Impressive? 

 

To add some additional perspective there, Coleman had 8 for 107 and a TD in that game. 

Isaiah Williams on Illinois had a 9/112/1 game with a crap QB; 

Some stiff named Graves on Idaho had a 3/84/1 game against them; 

Tyler Scott on Cincinnati had a 10/185/3 game vs. them, and on the same team, Tre Tucker posted 5/92/1 in the same game.  They were drafted in rounds 4 and 3 respectively in '23.  Look up they've done in the NFL; 

Trey Palmer on Nebraska put up 8/157/1 on them.  He was drafted in the 6th round in '23, look him up too;  

Ronnie Bell, 11/121/0 for Michigan vs. them.  He was 6 picks away from DFL in '23.  He's done nothing;  

Charlie Jones on Purdue, 4/143/1.  He was a late 4th whose done about the same as the others in the NFL.  Several of those above with good QBs here.  

 

So perspective matters.  

 

Point being, that situation is entirely unlikely to occur here.  As all the draft profiles say about Coleman, he can't separate, and he can't, certainly not with any consistency.  So his value is going to come from these "contested catch" jumpballs that people talk about, or crisp route running, which isn't a weakness of his per se, but it's also not a strength, or finding open spots in zone coverages.  If Coleman thrives, it's going to be because he's efficient for lack of a better word, but his efficiency metrics are not good either.  The DBs that he sees covering him are going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum from what he's seen in college where he didn't even draw the best there.  

 

He's not going to make a living in the NFL on short passes for larger gains, and that's also a mismatch for Allen since that's not Allen's game.  We've had little difficulty getting guys open in the flats and backfield, but Allen quite often overlooks them in favor of deeper throws.  So Allen's going to have to adjust his game significantly to make optimal use of Coleman, and even then it remains to be seen whether Coleman can excel on YAC here in the NFL.  That won't have to do with Allen.  

 

That's why what Brady thinks up will be critical, but it's also why Allen's numbers plummeted last season under Brady.  

 

Otherwise of his four biggest games at MSU, apart from four being losses, three were blowout losses, the other one was a close loss to a horrible defensive team.  So questions arise as to how some of his biggest plays came in those games, but they likely won't be under similar circumstances here.  If the hope is for him to get mismatched for jump balls, I mean is that a good strategy for us?  We said the same about James Hardy when we drafted him, who was even bigger at 6'6"/220 and more accomplished in college than Coleman.  Just sayin'.  

 

It's very important to look at the particulars of plays in evaluating players, and so very few draft analysts do that.  It simply takes too much time, way more time than a person even has much less is capable of spending on for one or two hundred players.  

 

His teammate at MSU, Jayden Reed, drafted at 50th overall in the 2nd in '23, is likely going to have a notably better career than Coleman.  

 

Anyway, here's that video.  But let's get back to what we were doing.  

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Thanks @PBF81 for the discussion - feel free to add your comments below mine.

 

Game 3: Boston College (Defense: 3rd PA, 26th PY, 83rd SP+ Defense, out of 133)

 

1. Fade route from slot, OK coverage/zero separation.  Coleman had poor body control IMO, could have put on the brakes OR won the contested catch. No drop. Decent corner, Elijah Jones (3rd rounder Ariz) made the pass break-up, due to his length.  But Coleman should have won this route before Jones got his hand in.

 

I lean to putting that in the Drop category.  The ball was very catchable.  It was nicely thrown over his right shoulder to the outside.  The defender, Jones, while on him, isn't even a factor until the end of the what-should-have-been-a-catch.  Either way, it's debatable, but it doesn't support the narrative.  It's an excuse play.  

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

2. Crosser route/defender drops into middle zone from sugar blitz look.  Just a poor decision by JT, throwing into heavy traffic what looked like a pre-snap decision.  Had his top slot open to the corner.  Pause at Q1 6:05, see what Coleman is looking into & deciding to sit down his route.  No drop.

 

Again, clearly a drop, more so than the first one.  The ball was right in his hands.  Our current receivers make that catch.  

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

3. Fade route.  In general this pass should NOT be thrown, unless it's an EZ shot. Coleman doesn't have any leverage on CB, unless the pass is made to the back shoulder.  Poor decision/pass by JT.  This was my biggest issue with JT/FL St offense in general, in how vanilla/street ball it was.  However, Coleman could have made a better attempt/body control but that pass was an easy PBU by CB (regardless of skill).  I'll call it a contested catch.  No drop.

 

Agree on no drop.  

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

4. Reverse to Coleman, well defended/not how I think Bills will use him.  FL St just trying to get Coleman involved, b/c of their lack of diversity in passing attack.

 

This is a who-cares play.  If he ends up distinguishing himself here with that kind of nonsense then we're screwed.  LOL  

 

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

Overall, a poor passing game for FL St against a solid Pass Defense opponent.  Coleman didn't play well on the targets evaluated, and was taken off the stat sheet (his worse performance of year).  For the first time in 3 games, Coleman faced some corners with length/size - that neutralized him in general. 

 

My simply question, both now and running, is does his play in this game support the narrative?  It seems that we agree that it does not.  

 

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

These are the type of games (3 passing targets), where it'd be nice to see the other passing plays to see if Coleman "won" those routes/was open.  This is where we're at though, in terms of information to assess.  This is the back/forth that is difficult with Coleman to project; with a Avg/Below Avg college QB (reading defenses), vanilla offense/not much route variety, b/c FL st could get away with it.

 

There's a whole lot more of this ahead in the next 9 games than that which will support the narrative.  Just sayin'.  

 

 

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Contested Catch: Game - 0/2.  Season - 3/7 =43% (Single coverage: 3/6=50%, Dbl Cov: 0/1=0%). 

(***Side note: By my assessment, 2 poorly thrown passes that contributed to misses OR another way of saying it, 3/5=60% on well-thrown passes & Zero times Coleman bailed out his QB.  To me so far, I'm seeing Keon as a solid option to let him go get it (true 50/50 guy), but not overly impressive.  So this is where Josh Allen might make a big difference in that %, based on decision making & specific match-ups.)

 

Catch Rate: Game - 0/0. Season - 11/13=85%

 

BTW, as to overall catch rate, which presumably you mean catch%, that's fine, but I'm discounting that because the vast majority of his plays are in the high-percentage category.  Either way, again, my focus is on either substantiating or not-so-much the narrative on him.  It seems that thus far we're both somewhere on the side of that the narrative is stronger than the reality.  

 

BTW, I'm going to be really busy this week, I'll try to get to any response promptly, but it likely won't be prompt.  LOL  

 

 

Edited May 27 by PBF81

[Warriorspikes51]

He definitely has the work ethic and a likeable personality.  If he can produce on Sunday's he quickly becomes a household name around the league