Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

He is pretty quick, is he still 4.3 speed at this point in his career? 

 

No idea but I doubt he's fallen any lower than high 4.3s/low 4.4s.  

[wppete]

 

[BADOLBILZ]

On 5/15/2024 at 10:52 AM, Awwufelloff said:

He is pretty quick, is he still 4.3 speed at this point in his career? 

 

 

At age 28, entering his 8th year in the NFL.......I highly doubt it.

 

 These guys get pretty beat up in pro football and men peak physically around 25-26.   That's why Marquise Goodwin kept faking injury with the Bills when he was trying to stay in track shape for Olympic trials.  

 

The NFL doesn't produce many TV "duds" but one of the biggest was the NFL "veteran combine".     They had all these veteran free agents working out and they were putting up hilariously bad track numbers.    Felix Jones was a 4.47 at 21 and 4.85 at age 27. 

 

 https://deadspin.com/the-nfl-veteran-combine-is-the-saddest-1693107996/#:~:text=Former Cowboys running back Felix,You know%2C Rich Eisen time.

 

And that was the end of combine testing vets....

[Chandler#81]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C7GCS7MLVgA/?igsh=c2pyM2hvY2JzdTEx

[Alphadawg7]

On 5/14/2024 at 12:58 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You are correct that there were 3 longer completions to Shakir on the season........the longest being 30 yards from the LOS not 40 yards.    Your math is terrible and your attention span watching a 2:59 video is very poor.

 

But my forgetting some busted coverage plays and your subsequent exaggeration doesn't change the point in any way.    

 

The 3 longer throws were all wide open sideline throws........busted coverages.    

 

None of those were posts trying to split the safeties like they attempted on that fateful 2nd and 9.

 

Even the one versus the Jets that I had credited as the second longest throw.......because that one actually WAS in traffic.........was NOT that throw.   

 

It was a stupid time to attempt a high degree of difficulty throw that they hadn't completed all season.

 

Especially considering that they had failed to connect on big plays all night.

 

The handling/choices of 13 seconds was debatable.   All that was needed was one very SIMPLE play to be made to end that game.

 

2nd and 9.........not so debatable.   Even if you WIN that play.......the prior 58 minutes of that game + the Chiefs need to score a TD playing 4 down football.......well if you have any common sense whatsoever that tells you that you probably lose the game anyway.   That's the point.   They chose to turn the result of the game over to their weaknesses.......defense and special teams.......... instead of finishing it with the only thing that had gone right that day........methodical offense.

 

That play was an easy TD had Chris Jones not blown Dawkins into Allen on the throw stepping on his foot.  This is the NFL, you take the 7 points when you can get the 7 points.  You don't pass up a chance to take a 4 point lead just because there is a a minute and a half left on the clock.  Thats why the guys on defense get paid too.  Shakir burned his coverage and thats a strike Josh makes pretty much every time if not hit on the throw and Shakir would have caught that as he caught everything near his hands and had the best hands in the NFL last year.  On 2nd down, I am sure they had some short area throws he can go with it if Shakir isn't there, but it was a beautiful route by what was our best WR in the 2nd half of the season.  

 

When a FG can win the game, yes, milk the clock.  When a FG isn't enough then you take the harder to get TD when its available, every single NFL coach will tell you the same thing.  Nothing wrong with Josh taking a shot there IMHO.

 

As far as your argument goes about it being a stupid time to try and high degree of difficulty throw...I have to disagree on the fact of it being a "high degree of difficulty" throw.  I mean every QB in the NFL is capable of completing a post over the middle or they wouldn't have a job.  Also we don't know if that was the primary read or not either, Josh may have had somewhere else he was gonna go first and saw Shakir burn his coverage and then took the shot.  Plus, it is a route we have run a lot, doesn't matter who the target is, Josh has thrown that pass a lot in his career including the game where Davis took the wrong option and went left on a would be game winning TD earlier in the season that we lost.  Which is probably why they trusted Shakir more in that moment, not to mention he was much more likely to catch the ball than Davis or even Diggs.  

 

Its easy to criticize because Chris Jones blew Dawkins up and it didn't work after Dawkins stepped on Allens foot.  But had Allen gotten the ball out a half second later or just taken one more step up in the pocket that is a TD.  So not sure how anyone can say it was "stupid" when in fact they got the look, won the route and had the TD right there until one of the best defensive lineman (also paid to make plays) interrupted the play.

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 5/11/2024 at 10:55 PM, Big Blitz said:

 

Neither did Diggs.  

 

That was at Maryland, also

[Beck Water]

On 5/12/2024 at 9:09 AM, Maine-iac said:

I apologize if I'm reposting stuff.  Saw this and thought it was interesting.  The guy isn't a Coleman fan and it's only mini camp but I like the video thought I'd share.

 

 

 

Thanks for sharing this.

 

I like that the narrator is a college DB coach, so he's used to breaking down receiver film to ID tendencies.

 

I also respect him that he didn't like Coleman, didn't think he was a 2nd round pick, but going through the different phases of the route concedes that Coleman ran a very good route.

 

I wonder who it is who's making fun of Coleman?

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Thanks for sharing this.

 

I like that the narrator is a college DB coach, so he's used to breaking down receiver film to ID tendencies.

 

I also respect him that he didn't like Coleman, didn't think he was a 2nd round pick, but going through the different phases of the route concedes that Coleman ran a very good route.

 

I wonder who it is who's making fun of Coleman?

My usual suspects would be Dolphins and Chiefs fans.

[Beck Water]

On 5/11/2024 at 9:59 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

You are on the right track.  Beane’s goal is not to replace the ball hogging Diggs, but to make up his production in the aggregate with 4 more or less equal targets in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Coleman.  Instead of having one 1200 yard receivers, he’ll field an armada for 4  guys all capable of 900-1000 yards.  
 

We may have a different receiving leader each week, because the game plan will be designed to exploit the weaknesses in opposing defenses.  If the team can’t stop the run, they’ll receive a steady diet of Cook and Davis.  If they can’t cover the slot, they’ll receive a steady diet of Kincaid and Shakir.  If they can’t cover the outside, Coleman and Samuel will be the weapons.  The goal is to make the Bills’ offense a matchup nightmare for DCs. 

 

The legitimate question is: are all 4 guys in fact capable of delivering 900-1000 yds?

2023 (career best)

Kincaid 673 (same)

Shakir 611 (same)

Samuel 613 (851 in '20)

Coleman rookie

MVS  315 (690 in '20)

 

It can happen - Diggs output jumped 36% in 2020; John Brown 48% in 2019; Cole Beasley 16% in 2019 then another 24% in 2020.

 

But expecting it to happen simultaneously for 4 or 5 guys seems a bit improbable to me.

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The legitimate question is: are all 4 guys in fact capable of delivering 900-1000 yds?

2023 (career best)

Kincaid 673 (same)

Shakir 611 (same)

Samuel 613 (851 in '20)

Coleman rookie

MVS  315 (690 in '20)

 

It can happen - Diggs output jumped 36% in 2020; John Brown 48% in 2019; Cole Beasley 16% in 2019 then another 24% in 2020.

 

But expecting it to happen simultaneously for 4 or 5 guys seems a bit improbable to me.

I still think it's an irresponsible bet on Beane's part, even if Josh Allen and Brady end up pulling it off. 

Some folks are tired of those of us who are not convinced by the plan. They are free to mock, but a concern doesn't go away just because time passes. And what else is one to do if threads proliferate about a subject where the quality of receiver or the nature of the receiver room or whether modern WRs are a dime a dozen or not is the topic? Just shut up and get with the program?

 

It's a funny age. The squares from the sixties are today's rebels. I used to be called a homer here, and now I'm a whiner.

[wppete]

Caption This 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The legitimate question is: are all 4 guys in fact capable of delivering 900-1000 yds?

2023 (career best)

Kincaid 673 (same)

Shakir 611 (same)

Samuel 613 (851 in '20)

Coleman rookie

MVS  315 (690 in '20)

 

It can happen - Diggs output jumped 36% in 2020; John Brown 48% in 2019; Cole Beasley 16% in 2019 then another 24% in 2020.

 

But expecting it to happen simultaneously for 4 or 5 guys seems a bit improbable to me.

I said capable.  I didn’t say it was going to happen.  However, Shakir (5 targets) and Kincaid (19 targets), who were basically not thrown to for the first 6 weeks last season.  Then from week 7 through the playoffs Shakir put up 646 (on only 52 targets).  That’s a 845 yard pace or 12.43 yards per target.  What if he now gets say 90 targets? At 12.43 per target that’s 1118 yards.  By the way Shakir jumped from 161 to 611 (+75 in the playoffs) between year 1 & year 2.  This season he’ll be a primary target for the first time.   

 

Kincaid had 659 yards on 83 targets from week 7 through the playoffs or about 8 yards per target.  That translates to about 872 yards over a full season of proper usage.  Is it really much of a stretch to say he’ll be even better over a full season when integrated into the offense in his 2nd year and from day 1?    
 

As to Samuel he had 1000 yards from scrimmage when last he played for Brady.  If anyone knows how to get the most out of Samuel it’s Brady and Josh will be the best QB he’s played with.

 

As to Coleman, his game, speed and size are similar to Higgins and Pittman who were drafted 33rd and 34th in 2020.  Each has become a 1000 yard receiver.  Higgins had 900+ as a rookie.  
 

Josh is going to throw for 4300-4500 next season.  Those yards are going to be divided much more equitably than in years past. Remember Diggs (160), Davis (81), Sherfield (22) and Harty (21) had 284 targets last season.  Those opportunities are going to go somewhere.  Is it really hard to believe that Kincaid will go from 80 to 120, Shakir 50 to 90, Samuel gets his usually 95 and Coleman gets 60-70?  

[LeGOATski]

29 minutes ago, wppete said:

Caption This 

 

So if you go to Macy's website, and then the section for men's outerwear, you'll see the sale on them jackets.

 

They got every color!

[SoonerBillsFan]

58 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The legitimate question is: are all 4 guys in fact capable of delivering 900-1000 yds?

2023 (career best)

Kincaid 673 (same)

Shakir 611 (same)

Samuel 613 (851 in '20)

Coleman rookie

MVS  315 (690 in '20)

 

It can happen - Diggs output jumped 36% in 2020; John Brown 48% in 2019; Cole Beasley 16% in 2019 then another 24% in 2020.

 

But expecting it to happen simultaneously for 4 or 5 guys seems a bit improbable to me.

Well let's see we have ...

Coleman

Shakir

Samuel 

MVS

Hollins

Claypool

Kincaid

Knox

Cook.

 

If all of them got 500 yards that's 4500 yards. 

 

I would expect the average of that group to be higher.  Fans still try so hard to predict what can't be predicted.   We will not have a " #1" wr in this offense. Many of us said what Beane just did, from week to week #1 may change, and I expect it to.

 

Believe it or not that is a really good thing, and fans need to grips with this concept fast because beane confirmed this is the approach this year.

 

Lastly, where were the majority of Allen's it's last year % wise?  Davis and Diggs.  That happens when you force the ball vs throwing it to whomever is open and not worrying about egos.

[LeGOATski]

4 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Well let's see we have ...

Coleman

Shakir

Samuel 

MVS

Hollins

Claypool

Kincaid

Knox

Cook.

 

If all of them got 500 yards that's 4500 yards. 

 

I would expect the average of that group to be higher.  Fans still try so hard to predict what can't be predicted.   We will not have a " #1" wr in this offense. Many of us said what Beane just did, from week to week #1 may change, and I expect it to.

 

Believe it or not that is a really good thing, and fans need to grips with this concept fast because beane confirmed this is the approach this year.

 

Lastly, where were the majority of Allen's it's last year % wise?  Davis and Diggs.  That happens when you force the ball vs throwing it to whomever is open and not worrying about egos.

Kincaid is the closest thing to a number 1 with the way he gets used. They work him around inside and out and he's a potential mismatch anywhere. He should get a ton of targets.

[Beck Water]

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I said capable.  I didn’t say it was going to happen.  However, Shakir (5 targets) and Kincaid (19 targets), who were basically not thrown to for the first 6 weeks last season.  Then from week 7 through the playoffs Shakir put up 646 (on only 52 targets).  That’s a 845 yard pace or 12.43 yards per target.  What if he now gets say 90 targets? At 12.43 per target that’s 1118 yards.  By the way Shakir jumped from 161 to 611 (+75 in the playoffs) between year 1 & year 2.  This season he’ll be a primary target for the first time.   

 

Kincaid had 659 yards on 83 targets from week 7 through the playoffs or about 8 yards per target.  That translates to about 872 yards over a full season of proper usage.  Is it really much of a stretch to say he’ll be even better over a full season when integrated into the offense in his 2nd year and from day 1?    
 

As to Samuel he had 1000 yards from scrimmage when last he played for Brady.  If anyone knows how to get the most out of Samuel it’s Brady and Josh will be the best QB he’s played with.

 

As to Coleman, his game, speed and size are similar to Higgins and Pittman who were drafted 33rd and 34th in 2020.  Each has become a 1000 yard receiver.  Higgins had 900+ as a rookie.  
 

Josh is going to throw for 4300-4500 next season.  Those yards are going to be divided much more equitably than in years past. Remember Diggs (160), Davis (81), Sherfield (22) and Harty (21) had 284 targets last season.  Those opportunities are going to go somewhere.  Is it really hard to believe that Kincaid will go from 80 to 120, Shakir 50 to 90, Samuel gets his usually 95 and Coleman gets 60-70?  

 

Thanks for your response.  You duplicated posts, by the way; NBD but you might want to delete one.

 

As far as hard to believe, no, it's not hard to believe that individually, they can improve.  In the post you're responding to, I laid out the jump in production by Beasley, Brown, and Diggs upon joining the Bills and having Allen as their QB.

 

What I think is wishful thinking, is that we'll get the number of improvements we need to sustain an elite passing offense.  Even Kansas City struggled through the season offensively and finished with the 15th ranked offense, though Mahomes did pass for 4,183 yds - and their offense still had Kelce as its linchpin.  Fortunately for them, Rice "got it" and took off towards the end of the season, and the rest is history.

 

So something similar could happen with the Bills, although, KC was carried through the season by great defense and I'm not sure our defense is gonna be there this year.

[Maine-iac]

Digging around because there's so much talk about separation.  A lot of decent receivers are on the far low end of the separation statistic.  Hopkins, Higgins, London, Cooper, Pickens, Evans, and Ridley (just to name a few) were all on the very low end, statistically, of the charts.  I think it's of note that both Kincaid and Shakir had separation over 3.5 and catch % of about 80.  I'm not sure what to make of it but it leaves me feeling like separation as a statistic is not the be all end all of stats.  More separation does tend to help catch percentage but there are a lot of receivers who are very productive regardless.  After reading Tee Higgins draft profile the similarities are striking.  Higgins had more production in college but physically they are similar.  So from now until he gets on the field I'm going to tell myself Coleman might be the next Tee Higgins even if it's yet to be seen.

 

Separation Stats

Tee Higgins scouting similarities

[Dr. Who]

28 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Digging around because there's so much talk about separation.  A lot of decent receivers are on the far low end of the separation statistic.  Hopkins, Higgins, London, Cooper, Pickens, Evans, and Ridley (just to name a few) were all on the very low end, statistically, of the charts.  I think it's of note that both Kincaid and Shakir had separation over 3.5 and catch % of about 80.  I'm not sure what to make of it but it leaves me feeling like separation as a statistic is not the be all end all of stats.  More separation does tend to help catch percentage but there are a lot of receivers who are very productive regardless.  After reading Tee Higgins draft profile the similarities are striking.  Higgins had more production in college but physically they are similar.  So from now until he gets on the field I'm going to tell myself Coleman might be the next Tee Higgins even if it's yet to be seen.

 

Separation Stats

Tee Higgins scouting similarities

Higgins is the optimistic projection. A few folks have brought him up in threads. Let's hope it happens.

[DJB]

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

 

Watch your back, Trubisky.