McDermott is feeling the pressure

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You might argue if you like, but given all the examples of teams that were winning and seeing playoffs, parted with their HC, and did NOT do better with their next head coach (including Dungy with the Colts - Caldwell went to a Superbowl, but lost) - I predict your argument will be a bit tenuous.

 

 

Dungy retired, he wasn't fired

[3rdand12]

23 hours ago, julian said:

It’s his defense, always has been, I think he’s an excellent HC, my only argument is at some point you need to make a change

Of course. Its the NFL.

I think the contracts are married for McBeanes  ?  ? same years

[julian]

39 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Of course. Its the NFL.

I think the contracts are married for McBeanes  ?  ? same years

Yeah, McDermott isn’t going anywhere minus a major meltdown season which I don’t see happening so fingers crossed for good health and some luck come Jan/Feb 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Dungy retired, he wasn't fired

 

"parted with their HC, and did NOT do better with their next head coach" were the words I used.  I don't read "fired" as an argument I'm making.

 

But aren't you one of the ones who are pretty firm in the stance that Leslie Frazier was fired, no matter what Beane or McDermott or Frazier say?

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

"parted with their HC, and did NOT do better with their next head coach" were the words I used.  I don't read "fired" as an argument I'm making.

 

But aren't you one of the ones who are pretty firm in the stance that Leslie Frazier was fired, no matter what Beane or McDermott or Frazier say?

I thought you were referencing my comment you quoted

 

I was referring to coaches who were let go

 

It doesn't matter anyway because McDermott isn't getting fired 

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I thought you were referencing my comment you quoted

 

I was referring to coaches who were let go

 

It doesn't matter anyway because McDermott isn't getting fired 

You have seen the light! Coach for life!

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

Marvin Lewis got fired. Period. 

 

After 3 consecutive losing seasons. If McDermott has that he is gone. In fact I am not sure he'd get three. Barring a major Allen injury I'm not sure he'd get one. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

After 3 consecutive losing seasons. If McDermott has that he is gone. In fact I am not sure he'd get three. Barring a major Allen injury I'm not sure he'd get one. 

McDermott wouldn’t have made it to 0-7 in the playoffs either.  If the Bills would have lost our first 3 playoff games under McDermott, he probably would have been gone.

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

After 3 consecutive losing seasons. If McDermott has that he is gone. In fact I am not sure he'd get three. Barring a major Allen injury I'm not sure he'd get one. 

1. I am not saying McDermott should be fired
2. I am not saying there is obviously a better coach to replace McDermott

I am saying, I am sincerely baffled by why anyone would measure the Bills record under McDermott to the drought era Bills, Marvin Lewis, or Andy Reid or any other non-relevant data point. 

In all walks of life people's performance is measured against expectations.  In the NFL 14/32 teams make the playoffs every year.  If everything was exactly equal in a five year period a team would be expected to appear in the playoffs twice. Eight teams advance to the divisional round, so in a five year period, it would be expected to make the divisional round approximately once. So in a world where schedules and rosters are exactly even, the Bills have been very successful during the last five years. The math says that is not disputable. 

In the real world however rosters and schedules are not equal.  Another bit of math that is not really disputable, is that the production from the QB position during the last five years by virtually all measures has been top 2 in the NFL.   Its hard to determine the talent level on the roster as a measurable against other teams. For discussion purposes, lets say the Bills have had a top 10 roster (excluding QB position) over the last five year.  So top 2 QB, top 10 roster, AFC east schedule during the last five years.   What are the expectations for that situation.  In my opinion it would be odd for the Bills to not win the division every year for the last five years, given the QB and roster we have had.  McDermott has delivered on that expectation.  But not much more than that. 
 

Question 1:  What is the appropriate expecation for the Bills with Josh Allen and the type of roster the  Bills have had over the last five years

This question is the root cause of most arguments over McDermott. It is not really about McDermott.  It's about the Bills delivering or not delivering on expectations.  Much of the defense of McDermott is in the form of "your expectations are unrealistic, my expectations are realistic, and McDermott succeeds in meeting my lower expectations not your higher expectations."  This is an entirely reasonable fan argument. But it does not provde the answer for question 2. 

Question 2: Would a different head coach meet, fall short of, or exceed the expecations, that I set for McDermott. 

Many McDermott defenders shift the bar dramatically when discussion the merits of a change. This type of argument is "a different head coach does not guarantee a super bowl".  But I don't believe that is a reasonable argument.  

Personally I think most (not all) of the current NFL head coaches, would win the AFC east in 2024 with the Bills current roster.  So if that is my expectation to measure success against, I think it is a low risk decision to make a change.  

Question 3: Do you ever raise the bar of expectation for the Bills to "winning a super bowl" or "playing in a super bowl"? This is a yes or no question

For the fans who answer question 3 "no", I think they will likely be happy with either Sean McDermott or a different head coach. For those that answer question 3 "yes" we are led to question 4.

Question 4: How many seasons do you keep trying to get to the super bowl with the same head coach, before making a change?

 

From  a purely historical perspective, despite the narrow-minded fans, McDermott has already been given a very long time.  But that does not answer the question of how many seasons.  (note if your answer is "infinite seasons", that means you answered question 3 as no, and question 4 is not relevant. )


 

 

Edited March 27 by Chaos

[Bill from NYC]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

1. I am not saying McDermott should be fired
2. I am not saying there is obviously a better coach to replace McDermott

I am saying, I am sincerely baffled by why anyone would measure the Bills record under McDermott to the drought era Bills, Marvin Lewis, or Andy Reid or any other non-relevant data point. 

n all walks of life people's performance is measured against expectations.  In the NFL 14/32 teams make the playoffs every year.  If everything was exactly equal in a five year period a team would be expected to appear in the playoffs twice. Eight teams advance to the divisional round, so in a five year period, it would be expected to make the divisional round approximately once. So in a world where schedules and rosters are exactly even, the Bills have been very successful during the last five years. The math says that is not disputable. 

In the real world however rosters and schedules are not equal.  Another bit of math that is not really disputable, is that the production from the QB position during the last five years by virtually all measures has been top 2 in the NFL.   Its hard to determine the talent level on the roster as a measurable against other teams. For discussion purposes, lets say the Bills have had a top 10 roster (excluding QB position) over the last five year.  So top 2 QB, top 10 roster, AFC east schedule during the last five years.   What are the expectations for that situation.  In my opinion it would be odd for the Bills to not win the division every year for the last five years, given the QB and roster we have had.  McDermott has delivered on that expectation.  But not much more than that. 
 

Question 1:  What is the appropriate expecation for the Bills with Josh Allen and the type of roster the  Bills have had over the last five years

This question is the root cause of most arguments over McDermott. It is not really about McDermott.  It's about the Bills delivering or not delivering on expectations.  Much of the defense of McDermott is in the form of "your expectations are unrealistic, my expectations are realistic, and McDermott succeeds in meeting my lower expectations not your higher expectations."  This is an entirely reasonable fan argument. But it does not provde the answer for question 2. 

Question 2: Would a different head coach meet, fall short of, or exceed the expecations, that I set for McDermott. 

Many McDermott defenders shift the bar dramatically when discussion the merits of a change. This type of argument is "a different head coach does not guarantee a super bowl".  But I don't believe that is a reasonable argument.  

Personally I think most (not all) of the current NFL head coaches, would win the AFC east in 2024 with the Bills current roster.  So if that is my expectation to measure success against, I think it is a low risk decision to make a change.  

Question 3: Do you ever raise the bar of expectation for the Bills to "winning a super bowl" or "playing in a super bowl"? This is a yes or no question

For the fans who answer question 3 "no", I think they will likely be happy with either Sean McDermott or a different head coach. For those that answer question 3 "yes" we are led to question 4.

Question 4: How many seasons do you keep trying to get to the super bowl with the same head coach, before making a change?

 

From  a purely historical perspective, despite the narrow-minded fans, McDermott has already been given a very long time.  But that does not answer the question of how many seasons.  (note if your answer is "infinite seasons", that means you answered question 3 as no, and question 4 is not relevant. )


 

 

This was an interesting post and i enjoy posts like  this.  But with all of these questions, I think that it would help (or at least help me) if you ended it with some sort of summary. It is hard to see what it is you are driving at.

 

Thanks once again for the post and I'm pretty sure that the issue is mine, not yours lol.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Chaos said:

1. I am not saying McDermott should be fired
2. I am not saying there is obviously a better coach to replace McDermott

I am saying, I am sincerely baffled by why anyone would measure the Bills record under McDermott to the drought era Bills, Marvin Lewis, or Andy Reid or any other non-relevant data point. 

In all walks of life people's performance is measured against expectations.  In the NFL 14/32 teams make the playoffs every year.  If everything was exactly equal in a five year period a team would be expected to appear in the playoffs twice. Eight teams advance to the divisional round, so in a five year period, it would be expected to make the divisional round approximately once. So in a world where schedules and rosters are exactly even, the Bills have been very successful during the last five years. The math says that is not disputable. 

In the real world however rosters and schedules are not equal.  Another bit of math that is not really disputable, is that the production from the QB position during the last five years by virtually all measures has been top 2 in the NFL.   Its hard to determine the talent level on the roster as a measurable against other teams. For discussion purposes, lets say the Bills have had a top 10 roster (excluding QB position) over the last five year.  So top 2 QB, top 10 roster, AFC east schedule during the last five years.   What are the expectations for that situation.  In my opinion it would be odd for the Bills to not win the division every year for the last five years, given the QB and roster we have had.  McDermott has delivered on that expectation.  But not much more than that. 
 

Question 1:  What is the appropriate expecation for the Bills with Josh Allen and the type of roster the  Bills have had over the last five years

This question is the root cause of most arguments over McDermott. It is not really about McDermott.  It's about the Bills delivering or not delivering on expectations.  Much of the defense of McDermott is in the form of "your expectations are unrealistic, my expectations are realistic, and McDermott succeeds in meeting my lower expectations not your higher expectations."  This is an entirely reasonable fan argument. But it does not provde the answer for question 2. 

Question 2: Would a different head coach meet, fall short of, or exceed the expecations, that I set for McDermott. 

Many McDermott defenders shift the bar dramatically when discussion the merits of a change. This type of argument is "a different head coach does not guarantee a super bowl".  But I don't believe that is a reasonable argument.  

Personally I think most (not all) of the current NFL head coaches, would win the AFC east in 2024 with the Bills current roster.  So if that is my expectation to measure success against, I think it is a low risk decision to make a change.  

Question 3: Do you ever raise the bar of expectation for the Bills to "winning a super bowl" or "playing in a super bowl"? This is a yes or no question

For the fans who answer question 3 "no", I think they will likely be happy with either Sean McDermott or a different head coach. For those that answer question 3 "yes" we are led to question 4.

Question 4: How many seasons do you keep trying to get to the super bowl with the same head coach, before making a change?

 

From  a purely historical perspective, despite the narrow-minded fans, McDermott has already been given a very long time.  But that does not answer the question of how many seasons.  (note if your answer is "infinite seasons", that means you answered question 3 as no, and question 4 is not relevant. )


 

 

 

I wasn't the one comparing him to Lewis. I was just correcting a factual inaccuracy.

[Chaos]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wasn't the one comparing him to Lewis. I was just correcting a factual inaccuracy.

Did not mean to suggest you were the one making the comparison. Just expressing my bafflement at why anyone would. The more common bafflement is comparing to drought era rosters teams who competed against the Brady led Patriots as relevant. 

13 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

This was an interesting post and i enjoy posts like  this.  But with all of these questions, I think that it would help (or at least help me) if you ended it with some sort of summary. It is hard to see what it is you are driving at.

 

Thanks once again for the post and I'm pretty sure that the issue is mine, not yours lol.

Summary : Each fan has their own expectations.  If you don't align on the expectations first, its impossible to have a rational discussion regarding whether or not to make coaching changes. 

[PBF81]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

1. I am not saying McDermott should be fired
2. I am not saying there is obviously a better coach to replace McDermott

I am saying, I am sincerely baffled by why anyone would measure the Bills record under McDermott to the drought era Bills, Marvin Lewis, or Andy Reid or any other non-relevant data point. 

In all walks of life people's performance is measured against expectations.  In the NFL 14/32 teams make the playoffs every year.  If everything was exactly equal in a five year period a team would be expected to appear in the playoffs twice. Eight teams advance to the divisional round, so in a five year period, it would be expected to make the divisional round approximately once. So in a world where schedules and rosters are exactly even, the Bills have been very successful during the last five years. The math says that is not disputable. 

In the real world however rosters and schedules are not equal.  Another bit of math that is not really disputable, is that the production from the QB position during the last five years by virtually all measures has been top 2 in the NFL.   Its hard to determine the talent level on the roster as a measurable against other teams. For discussion purposes, lets say the Bills have had a top 10 roster (excluding QB position) over the last five year.  So top 2 QB, top 10 roster, AFC east schedule during the last five years.   What are the expectations for that situation.  In my opinion it would be odd for the Bills to not win the division every year for the last five years, given the QB and roster we have had.  McDermott has delivered on that expectation.  But not much more than that. 
 

Question 1:  What is the appropriate expecation for the Bills with Josh Allen and the type of roster the  Bills have had over the last five years

This question is the root cause of most arguments over McDermott. It is not really about McDermott.  It's about the Bills delivering or not delivering on expectations.  Much of the defense of McDermott is in the form of "your expectations are unrealistic, my expectations are realistic, and McDermott succeeds in meeting my lower expectations not your higher expectations."  This is an entirely reasonable fan argument. But it does not provde the answer for question 2. 

Question 2: Would a different head coach meet, fall short of, or exceed the expecations, that I set for McDermott. 

Many McDermott defenders shift the bar dramatically when discussion the merits of a change. This type of argument is "a different head coach does not guarantee a super bowl".  But I don't believe that is a reasonable argument.  

Personally I think most (not all) of the current NFL head coaches, would win the AFC east in 2024 with the Bills current roster.  So if that is my expectation to measure success against, I think it is a low risk decision to make a change.  

Question 3: Do you ever raise the bar of expectation for the Bills to "winning a super bowl" or "playing in a super bowl"? This is a yes or no question

For the fans who answer question 3 "no", I think they will likely be happy with either Sean McDermott or a different head coach. For those that answer question 3 "yes" we are led to question 4.

Question 4: How many seasons do you keep trying to get to the super bowl with the same head coach, before making a change?

 

From  a purely historical perspective, despite the narrow-minded fans, McDermott has already been given a very long time.  But that does not answer the question of how many seasons.  (note if your answer is "infinite seasons", that means you answered question 3 as no, and question 4 is not relevant. )
 

 

Outstanding post Chaos!

 

I would add to that by asking, is it a reasonable expectation for a coach whose team has a top ranked Defense and a generational QB like Allen, to simply win a division that's perennially one of the weakest in the league, yet be unable to beat anything but wild-card teams in the playoffs after 7 seasons.  That doesn't even address the coaching flaws that were the primary reasons for our playoff losses.  (13-Second, etc ). 

 

I've looked, but I can't find a single coach that has historically been considered to have been great, that never beat anything but wild-card teams come playoff time in his first 7 seasons.  The inability to do that with a 1st or 2nd ranked Defense and Allen at QB is somewhat mystifying.  

 

 

[mjt328]

19 hours ago, 90sBills said:

When it has happened this often you cannot chalk it up to dumb luck. One team (coaches and players) rises to the occasion while the other wilt. Attributing these losses to dumb luck will only further the same results.

 

When you say "this often"... it's exactly THREE games.

NFL history shows that we create these narratives based on a small sample sizes, they eventually prove to be totally wrong.

 

As I mentioned, Andy Reid was the guy who couldn't "rise to the occasion" in the big moment.  Now he's got three Super Bowl rings, is considered the best HC in the entire league, and very possibly isn't done yet.  Mike Tomlin was the youngest coach to ever win a Super Bowl back in 2010.  The Steelers have now lost their last four playoff games, and it's been 7 years since they even advanced in the postseason.

 

There are countless other examples.  John Elway, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning were all chokers unable to win the big one.  Same with Bill Cowher.  Young Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were once clutch in big games.  Russell Wilson was a Hall of Fame lock and the Seahawks were going to be a dynasty.  Tony Dungy was the problem holding back Tampa Bay, and Jon Gruden was the hero.  Don Shula coached the NFL's only undefeated team ever, then somehow couldn't get it done with Dan Marino under center.  Whatever happened to Sean Payton, Sean McVay, Doug Pederson and John Harbaugh?  Why can't they rise to the occasion anymore?

 

Kyle Shanahan now has three blown Super Bowl leads under his belt.  I guess if the 49ers keep him around, they are just accepting the same results over and over.  The Lions better part ways with Dan Campbell too, since he wilted in the big moment and cost his team the NFL Championship.

 

[ClemsonBills]

Some people see it, but others just refuse.

[Matt_In_NH]

20 hours ago, 90sBills said:

When it has happened this often you cannot chalk it up to dumb luck. One team (coaches and players) rises to the occasion while the other wilt. Attributing these losses to dumb luck will only further the same results.

You think the Bills just wilted away in 13 seconds and last year?  Have the 49's wilted away in their two SB losses?  You make it sound like the Bills are not completive or capable of winning those games, its simply false.  It is a fact they have lost the games but wilted away is silly.   One team has demonstrated a winning formula for the last 6 years, it is literally like the Jordan led Bulls.  What is your idea for the new staff?  Who will it be?

[Gregg]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Outstanding post Chaos!

 

I would add to that by asking, is it a reasonable expectation for a coach whose team has a top ranked Defense and a generational QB like Allen, to simply win a division that's perennially one of the weakest in the league, yet be unable to beat anything but wild-card teams in the playoffs after 7 seasons.  That doesn't even address the coaching flaws that were the primary reasons for our playoff losses.  (13-Second, etc ). 

 

I've looked, but I can't find a single coach that has historically been considered to have been great, that never beat anything but wild-card teams come playoff time in his first 7 seasons.  The inability to do that with a 1st or 2nd ranked Defense and Allen at QB is somewhat mystifying.  

 

 

 

Have the Bills had a top ranked defense? The stats say yes but those stats were built on playing bad teams with bad QB's. Whenever they faced a good offense with a good QB they got exposed. I personally wanted to move on from McDermott after 13 seconds even though I knew that wasn't that going to happen. But the no-show vs the Bengals in playoffs was the final straw for me. He is a good regular season coach that hasn't gotten it done in the playoffs. How much longer do we have to wait before Terry makes a change if he ever does. I wanted Bill here. We all know his record when he has a good team with an elite level franchise QB. But that isn't happening either.

[Heitz]

On 3/25/2024 at 5:03 PM, Blackbeard said:

I spoke directly with Steve Tasker at a social gathering during the season. 

 

Who?  Is he even on Two Bills Drive!?!  I'll trust the anonymous keyboard experts here, thank you very much...  

[Gregg]

This thread will go full blown nuclear on McDermott if Ryans/Stroud or Harbaugh/Herbert get to a Super Bowl before the Bills. Sadly, I can see that happening.

[mjt328]

37 minutes ago, Chaos said:

1. I am not saying McDermott should be fired
2. I am not saying there is obviously a better coach to replace McDermott

I am saying, I am sincerely baffled by why anyone would measure the Bills record under McDermott to the drought era Bills, Marvin Lewis, or Andy Reid or any other non-relevant data point. 

In all walks of life people's performance is measured against expectations.  In the NFL 14/32 teams make the playoffs every year.  If everything was exactly equal in a five year period a team would be expected to appear in the playoffs twice. Eight teams advance to the divisional round, so in a five year period, it would be expected to make the divisional round approximately once. So in a world where schedules and rosters are exactly even, the Bills have been very successful during the last five years. The math says that is not disputable. 

In the real world however rosters and schedules are not equal.  Another bit of math that is not really disputable, is that the production from the QB position during the last five years by virtually all measures has been top 2 in the NFL.   Its hard to determine the talent level on the roster as a measurable against other teams. For discussion purposes, lets say the Bills have had a top 10 roster (excluding QB position) over the last five year.  So top 2 QB, top 10 roster, AFC east schedule during the last five years.   What are the expectations for that situation.  In my opinion it would be odd for the Bills to not win the division every year for the last five years, given the QB and roster we have had.  McDermott has delivered on that expectation.  But not much more than that. 
 

Question 1:  What is the appropriate expecation for the Bills with Josh Allen and the type of roster the  Bills have had over the last five years

This question is the root cause of most arguments over McDermott. It is not really about McDermott.  It's about the Bills delivering or not delivering on expectations.  Much of the defense of McDermott is in the form of "your expectations are unrealistic, my expectations are realistic, and McDermott succeeds in meeting my lower expectations not your higher expectations."  This is an entirely reasonable fan argument. But it does not provde the answer for question 2. 

Question 2: Would a different head coach meet, fall short of, or exceed the expecations, that I set for McDermott. 

Many McDermott defenders shift the bar dramatically when discussion the merits of a change. This type of argument is "a different head coach does not guarantee a super bowl".  But I don't believe that is a reasonable argument.  

Personally I think most (not all) of the current NFL head coaches, would win the AFC east in 2024 with the Bills current roster.  So if that is my expectation to measure success against, I think it is a low risk decision to make a change.  

Question 3: Do you ever raise the bar of expectation for the Bills to "winning a super bowl" or "playing in a super bowl"? This is a yes or no question

For the fans who answer question 3 "no", I think they will likely be happy with either Sean McDermott or a different head coach. For those that answer question 3 "yes" we are led to question 4.

Question 4: How many seasons do you keep trying to get to the super bowl with the same head coach, before making a change?

 

From  a purely historical perspective, despite the narrow-minded fans, McDermott has already been given a very long time.  But that does not answer the question of how many seasons.  (note if your answer is "infinite seasons", that means you answered question 3 as no, and question 4 is not relevant. )
 

 

By most accounts, the Bills and McDermott exceeded expectations in 2020.  Most wanted to see the team win the AFC East for the first time (they did) and win at least one playoff game (they actually won two).  However, their roster was (at that point) clearly a notch below the Chiefs.  We were the clear underdog in that matchup.  So not really falling short of expectations.

 

The last three Division losses were basically considered 50/50 matchups at best going in.  One of those games came less than a month after a player was brought back from death on the field.  Another with half the defensive starters missing with injuries, against probably the best QB in the league.  So although the Bills were considered Super Bowl contenders at certain points during the season... were they really falling short of expectations by losing to the Chiefs and Bengals once they reached the playoffs?

 

Even if we all agree that Josh Allen is a Top 2 quarterback in the league, you MUST ALSO point out the guy we keep falling short to is generally considered NUMBER ONE.  And Joe Burrow is usually ranked 2b or 3 at worst.  Those guys have some pretty high expectations too, and only one team can advance.

 

If the Bills were continually getting knocked off by inferior teams in the postseason, I could see your point.  But that's not what's happening.  They are coming up against teams that are either equal or superior with both a Quarterback and in overall team talent, and that's the hurdle we are struggling to get over.  In the case of the Chiefs, McDermott has proven he can coach the Bills to a win (3 times).  Mathematical odds mean nothing when you are talking about a sample size of 3-4 games.