Get excited... change is NOW with a youth wave!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. 20 years ago. The average age of NFL players has decreased almost 2 years since then. It's a young man's game. I don't think even the great Bruce Smith has double digit sacks at those ages anymore.... and Bruce wasn't coming off a second ACL injury in those years and hadn't looked as stiff as a board the year before. 

 

What would constitute a rebound in your mind? Because if it just means better than 0 sacks, 0 tackles for loss, 5 total pressures and a 25% missed tackle rate in 258 defensive snaps then sure, I can imagine he does better than that. It wouldn't be difficult. But to me for it to be a rebound that makes him definitely better value than the $6.7m you might be able to spend on another vet guy it has to be AJE 2023 type production (i.e. at least good enough to be considered your first guy in off the bench in rush situations) - 6.5 sacks, 14 pressures, 7 tackles for loss (not asking him to match the 2 interceptions). 

 

I just don't see how he has that sort of impact. He could barely move out there. 

 

Yes, I think he gets at least that production.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I still think the best way to handle Von is offer him a pay cut, and assuming he accepts set up the contract in a way that gives us an easy out in 2025. He has to know he isn't going to get an offer on the open market anywhere close to what he'd get with us, not with his recent performance and his legal troubles.

 

With Tre for me it's not about how likely it is he'll get back to form. It's just a clear immediate savings if we cut him with no future ramifications and the CB room is already in great shape. There's just no need to keep him. In general I hate when Beane offers under performing players pay cuts, it's like he is scared to be a little ruthless. Usually I'm in favor of cutting a player like that and if they want to come back for super cheap after discovering free agency isn't kind to them, go for it. The only reason I differ with Von is there some pretty nasty future ramifications to unload him this offseason so I'm more willing to go the pay cut route and hope to get some kind of value out of him, even if the chance is low.

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

[hondo in seattle]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

McDermott is the General leading them. The Coordinators are the Captains.

 

How did it work with a geriatric DC in Frazier?

 

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age.  Youth isn't an automatic cure.  

 

Frazier was born the same year I was, btw.  I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all.  Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age.  Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine.  

 

Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

 

 

Who do you replace Von Miller with at DE?

 

Tre is a zone system boundary-only CB with speed, quickness and(of course) durability concerns.    He's not physical enough to play slot like Taron or move to safety.   I know you've never felt Douglas was a starting NFL CB but that's pretty contrary to popular belief and production proof.......Benford and Elam return.........and the draft is much deeper at CB than it is at DE.      

[boater]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age.  Youth isn't an automatic cure.  

 

Frazier was born the same year I was, btw.  I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all.  Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age.  Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine.  

 

Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.  

 

 

You have all your brain cells working, good. Tip: if your Doc prescribes a statin drug for cholesterol--don't take it. Statin drugs bring brain fog.

 

As a White Male Senior recently looking for a job, I can assure you age discrimination is rampant. I even made a resume without dates--it got nowhere. So here I sit, retired earlier than I want to be.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

The ramification is that we don't get to use the freed up cap space this year for anything meaningful because it wouldn't become usable until June 2. I know we signed Leonard Floyd in June last year which worked out decently well but that was a rare outcome. A few other older edge rushers - Justin Houston, Melvin Ingram, a couple others - signed with teams late in the offseason and none of those signings turned into anything meaningful. You can't realistically count on finding a decent edge rusher in June... And the position group is already thin as can be, and we have very little cap space to work with to rebuild it. I just don't see any benefit to cutting him. It only makes our roster worse.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player.

 

It's probably not fair to say Tre has underperformed... But he has played in just 21 out of 51 games over the past three seasons. And now he is recovering from a 2nd consecutive serious lower leg injury. I have to take emotion out of the discussion and accept the player for who he is, not who I remember him as.

 

And again a lot of this for me comes down to the strength of the positions. If Tre was a DE and Von a CB I would probably feel the exact opposite of what I've argued. This regime has never had an issue filling the CB room, except when ravaged by injuries. Rasul Douglas + Christian Benford + Taron Johnson is a great starting CB combo. Elam is great depth with upside. They have a history of finding capable players late on day three of the draft and even UDFA. Edge rushers on the other hand they have never quite gotten it right, and the room as it stands (without Von) is just Greg Rousseau + Kingsley Jonathan. If nothing else we need bodies on the roster and we aren't gonna find a capable edge rusher in the 6th round.

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

OLine is not a disaster like it was but it's still not a strength. Morse cannot move a good DT an inch and is easily bull rushed. And he's one more head hit away from permanent injury. We need a wide-body stud center so we don't need trick plays or deep passes on 3rd and short.

So why not just cut Morse? Thought he been solid

[Jrb1979]

It's hard to take this thread seriously. The OP once thought Tyrod Taylor was going to be an MVP candidate 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age.  Youth isn't an automatic cure.  

 

Frazier was born the same year I was, btw.  I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all.  Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age.  Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine.  

 

Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.  

 

 

 

Really didn't mean to offend in terms of age, but our failures in the playoffs especially in the 13 second game certainly had something to do with Frazier's "bend don't break" defensive mentality that he's notorious for.  Same goes for other big games we've lost, including the Houston playoff game in 2019.

 

Age aside, Frazier's defenses were always great in the regular season, but were a huge contributor if not THE contributor to our final losses in 4 consecutive playoff games.  That Bengals game last year Burrow picked the Bills D apart because Frazier approached the game with what everyone could tell was obviously the wrong game plan.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Who do you replace Von Miller with at DE?

 

Tre is a zone system boundary-only CB with speed, quickness and(of course) durability concerns.    He's not physical enough to play slot like Taron or move to safety.   I know you've never felt Douglas was a starting NFL CB but that's pretty contrary to popular belief and production proof.......Benford and Elam return.........and the draft is much deeper at CB than it is at DE.      

 

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. 

 

On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think there is way more chance, and I mean like to the times of ten, that you get the old Tre White than you get the old Von Miller. I really don't think it's close. 

 

Try and renegotiate with Tre. Cut Von. 

 

Wow... seriously disagree on this.

 

Tre had 2 injuries to the same leg basically 2 years in a row.  And the 2nd injury is considered a much worse injury than the first.

 

Meanwhile, Von's first injury was years ago.  Yes, age might be a factor, but Von fully recovered from his first injury and was back to his old self for years.  We never truly saw that happen after Tre's first injury.  I think Von's age just made for a longer recovery time.

 

I think we keep both guys, but if I were to bet on which one is going to have a better 2024 season, it's Von by a longshot.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Why would we you think we are assured to see an improvement from a guy at an age where almost everyone at that position has hit the decline? The history of pass rushers beyond 35 is not good, and in the last 15 years it is even worse than "not good". It is almost non-existant. And that isn't factoring in coming off the ACL and the obvious limitations on his movement last year. 

 

Again, I'll be here to eat crow if I'm wrong. But Von Miller is finished.

 

Von Miller is one of the absolute best pass rushers in NFL history.

 

The fact that you believe suddenly he won't even belong on an NFL field less than 2 years removed from 8 sacks in 10 games is pretty amazing to me.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Von Miller is one of the absolute best pass rushers in NFL history.

 

The fact that you believe suddenly he won't even belong on an NFL field less than 2 years removed from 8 sacks in 10 games is pretty amazing to me.

 

He literally didn't belong on an NFL field this year and he is about to turn 35. The odds are slim to none.

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. 

 

On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

 

 

Yeah I see your point, they could just roll with Kameron Kline at RDE and be fine so long as Tre White can keep that slouch Benford on the bench. 

 

DE in the Bills system is the position where physical talent is the most important.    No defense asks DE's to have any broader of a skillset in order for the defense to succeed.   Very hard position to fill with impact.

 

Is Miller totally washed or does his recovery just extend into a second offseason like White's ACL recovery did?

 

I don't know but if you are gambling on upside at a position in the Bills defense DE is that position.

 

I don't have any problem moving on from either player if I know the replacements are at least going to allow the defense to remain a strength.

 

But November 2022 Von Miller would be much more valuable than September 2023 Tre White.   That part is not disputable.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I see your point, they could just roll with Kameron Kline at RDE and be fine so long as Tre White can keep that slouch Benford on the bench. 

 

DE in the Bills system is the position where physical talent is the most important.    No defense asks DE's to have any broader of a skillset in order for the defense to succeed.   Very hard position to fill with impact.

 

Is Miller totally washed or does his recovery just extend into a second offseason like White's ACL recovery did?

 

I don't know but if you are gambling on upside at a position in the Bills defense DE is that position.

 

I don't have any problem moving on from either player if I know the replacements are at least going to allow the defense to remain a strength.

 

But November 2022 Von Miller would be much more valuable than September 2023 Tre White.   That part is not disputable.

 

 

 

I don't dispute the final point - to be clear. But Von is toast. I'll happily eat crow if he isn't but I put the chances he is back at less than 5%. 

 

I also don't have any issue moving on from both. But I'd probably try and find a pay cut I can live with for Tre first.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't dispute the final point - to be clear. But Von is toast. I'll happily eat crow if he isn't but I put the chances he is back at less than 5%. 

 

I also don't have any issue moving on from both. But I'd probably try and find a pay cut I can live with for Tre first.

 

 

 

My biggest concern really is that the Bills would go into a draft that has excellent quality early and potentially good depth late at WR/OL/DB and instead of leaning into those strengths they try to reach for immediate need at DT and DE early........positions I view as weak this year, personally.

 

That's a recipe for disappointment.    That's how you end up starting a draft with depth players and finishing with depth players. 

 

Retaining Von is a risk.   I think he's probably 50/50 to be worth the $6M or more this year because that doesn't buy you much in free agency at edge and they got squat on the roster behind he and Rousseau.    

 

I think they could get pretty close to what Tre White could bring coming off a torn achilles(an underrated CB killer) for close to league minimum via Christian Benford.  

 

Then draft a future starter or 2 in the secondary on day 3.

 

I don't know where they are getting solutions at DE.   

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, boater said:

Ahhh... we're going to have a "Yute" movement.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

 

It wasn't just 8 or 9 games to round back into form after his last injury.  It was 6 games and then an entire offseason and then however many games in 2023 you would argue it took him in 2024.

 

Von now has an entire offseason to get his body right and recover.

 

You're actually convincing me even more that cutting Von simply won't happen.  It's clear you think it's strictly his age as the reason he's "shot."  You've hitched your wagon to that idea, and that's fine.

 

Brandon Beane signed him to a contract that very clearly intended to keep him for at least 3 years, plus the previous restructure.

 

Von Miller is not getting cut.  He'll have the offseason to recover and get right and then we get to see what percent of the old Von he is in 2024.

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. 

 

On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

 

Douglas played "pretty well????"  "80% Tre White is an upgrade on him"?????

 

Are you just trolling everyone?

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My biggest concern really is that the Bills would go into a draft that has excellent quality early and potentially good depth late at WR/OL/DB and instead of leaning into those strengths they try to reach for immediate need at DT and DE early........positions I view as weak this year, personally.

 

That's a recipe for disappointment.    That's how you end up starting a draft with depth players and finishing with depth players. 

 

Retaining Von is a risk.   I think he's probably 50/50 to be worth the $6M or more this year because that doesn't buy you much in free agency at edge and they got squat on the roster behind he and Rousseau.    

 

I think they could get pretty close to what Tre White could bring coming off a torn achilles(an underrated CB killer) for close to league minimum via Christian Benford.  

 

Then draft a future starter or 2 in the secondary on day 3.

 

I don't know where they are getting solutions at DE.   

 

If Von plays like last year they could literally get that solution with the practice squad DT who played some end at Tottenham that you mentioned earlier. As I said before even an Ngakoue level dust settle FA (and I have never been a fan of his) is likely gonna give you more. 

 

I think it is hope beyond hope that Von is capabale of being back to even something like effective. There might not be great solutions at end anywhere else. But that doesn't mean Von is one either. I'd honestly rather take a swing on some other mid level vet FA with the $6.7m than watch Von painfully trying to move around out there. 

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It wasn't just 8 or 9 games to round back into form after his last injury.  It was 6 games and then an entire offseason and then however many games in 2023 you would argue it took him in 2024.

 

Von now has an entire offseason to get his body right and recover.

 

You're actually convincing me even more that cutting Von simply won't happen.  It's clear you think it's strictly his age as the reason he's "shot."  You've hitched your wagon to that idea, and that's fine.

 

Brandon Beane signed him to a contract that very clearly intended to keep him for at least 3 years, plus the previous restructure.

 

Von Miller is not getting cut.  He'll have the offseason to recover and get right and then we get to see what percent of the old Von he is in 2024.

 

Douglas played "pretty well????"  "80% Tre White is an upgrade on him"?????

 

Are you just trolling everyone?

 

Nah I am really not. 

 

Tre White is still the best corner on the Bills. I don't think it is close. Even if he can only get back to 80% I'd take him over the other guys. But the way he played in Washington and in the Miami game he got hurt... I mean against Miami he was all pro level Tre again. One of his best 5 games in a Bills jersey. 

 

On Von I know what the plan was. But the plan didnt include a 2nd ACL. I have hitched my wagon to the idea that what I saw on the field last season wasn't even replacement level. I don't think that's as simple as give him more time and it will come right. I know how long it took Tre but Tre wasn't a liability out there even in 2022. He wasn't playing up to his contract, sure. But he wasn't a bum. That is what Von was last year. 

 

I don't take any pleasure saying it. I have loved Von Miller as a player. I was not a critic of the signing. I totally understood it. It was the right shot to take. Sadly it hasn't worked out because of the injury. I'd just rather move on now than try and force it to work this year and potentially have a guy hobbling around out there again.

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah I am really not. 

 

I I'd just rather move on now than try and force it to work this year and potentially have a guy hobbling around out there again.

When’s the latest they can realistically make the call to cut Von  during the preseason ? I think you probably give him as much time as possible first to see if he has shown any improvement 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

When’s the latest they can realistically make the call to cut Von  during the preseason ? I think you probably give him as much time as possible first to see if he has shown any improvement 

 

 

 

I think the remaining unguaranteed element of his 2024 salary guarantees if he is on the roster on the third day of the league year. So they have to make the decision before OTAs and minicamps. 

 

EDIT: I expect the Bills to keep him. It just isn't the move I'd make and my suspicion is they will end up regretting it. 

Edited February 6 by GunnerBill

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

 

There really is nasty ramifications. Releasing him this offseason would incur a 17.08 dead cap hit this season and a 15.417 dead cap hit next season as well. We'd take on over 32 in Dead Cap and save 6.7 on a post 6/1 cut. Meanwhile, in keeping him, we could take on just 15m dead cap next season and save 8.5 in 2025.

 

So we'd be eating 32m in dead cap and saving 6.7 cutting him this year or eating 15m in dead cap and saving 8.5 next year. It's really a no brainer.

Compounding the issue is the fact that, as opposed to CB, we're razor thin at DE. Cutting Miller would leave us with just Greg Rousseau, Kingsley Jonathan, and Kameron Cline under contract. 

 

And if you want to make it about cap space to spend on DE and damn the repercussions next year - there's actually a way to save 12m this year prior to 6/1. And it involves keeping him. It isn't advised, but neither is cutting him:

 

Quote

While there is at least a case for the Bills to still restructure Diggs’ deal, there isn’t a compelling argument to do so for Miller. Like Diggs, restructuring Miller’s deal could yield nearly $12 million in cap space this year, but the Bills would be signing up for another year on a massive cap hit for a player in his age-36 season in 2025 — and that’s not even factoring in his non-existent production this past season. Miller likely is going to be back with the Bills in 2024 by default of having a massive cap hit, massive dead cap and an empty defensive end room. But in the 2025 offseason, if the Bills keep Miller’s contract as is, they could save $8.5 million on that year’s cap. The Bills should preserve that no matter what this offseason because it can help their cap be far healthier in 2025 and beyond.

You want to make it as simple as "cut Von now and save 6.7m". It's not. There's a reason why this is only something that's talked about as a possibility by fans. 

 

It's simply not going to happen. And if it's about getting money for his replacement this year and putting blinders on to repercussions - it still makes more sense to keep him. 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I expect the Bills to keep him. It just isn't the move I'd make and my suspicion is they will end up regretting it. 

 

They will only regret it if some vet edge player signed after June 1 becomes a productive member of another team. If it was a matter of cutting him to save $6.7 million in cap space right away I might agree with you. Doing it to save $6.7 million in June makes no sense to me.

 

I really hope they can get him to agree to a reworked contract, let him keep his money this year but reduce the cap hit of keeping him or cutting him in 2025 and tell him he'll be cut right away if he doesn't agree. If he doesn't agree then sure, cut him, otherwise the threat is toothless.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It wasn't just 8 or 9 games to round back into form after his last injury.  It was 6 games and then an entire offseason and then however many games in 2023 you would argue it took him in 2024.

 

Von now has an entire offseason to get his body right and recover.

 

You're actually convincing me even more that cutting Von simply won't happen.  It's clear you think it's strictly his age as the reason he's "shot."  You've hitched your wagon to that idea, and that's fine.

 

Brandon Beane signed him to a contract that very clearly intended to keep him for at least 3 years, plus the previous restructure.

 

Von Miller is not getting cut.  He'll have the offseason to recover and get right and then we get to see what percent of the old Von he is in 2024.

I'm just not sure what it is that would make you feel confident enough at this point in his career he can return to perform very much better than some of the younger guys

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't dispute the final point - to be clear. But Von is toast. I'll happily eat crow if he isn't but I put the chances he is back at less than 5%. 

 

I also don't have any issue moving on from both. But I'd probably try and find a pay cut I can live with for Tre first.

 

 

Yeah I think so too. Think probably at this point they'd end up better off to move on

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There really is nasty ramifications. Releasing him this offseason would incur a 17.08 dead cap hit this season and a 15.417 dead cap hit next season as well. We'd take on over 32 in Dead Cap and save 6.7 on a post 6/1 cut. Meanwhile, in keeping him, we could take on just 15m dead cap next season and save 8.5 in 2025.

 

So we'd be eating 32m in dead cap and saving 6.7 cutting him this year or eating 15m in dead cap and saving 8.5 next year. It's really a no brainer.

Compounding the issue is the fact that, as opposed to CB, we're razor thin at DE. Cutting Miller would leave us with just Greg Rousseau, Kingsley Jonathan, and Kameron Cline under contract. 

 

And if you want to make it about cap space to spend on DE and damn the repercussions next year - there's actually a way to save 12m this year prior to 6/1. And it involves keeping him. It isn't advised, but neither is cutting him:

 

You want to make it as simple as "cut Von now and save 6.7m". It's not. There's a reason why this is only something that's talked about as a possibility by fans. 

 

It's simply not going to happen. And if it's about getting money for his replacement this year and putting blinders on to repercussions - it still makes more sense to keep him. 

6 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

I'm just not sure what it is that would make you feel confident enough at this point in his career he can return to perform very much better than some of the younger guys

 

 

Because he always has.

 

He was still playing at an extremely high level in the 10 games he played in 2022 at age 33.

 

If we get 80% of that 10 game in 2022 Von Miller, it's better than "some of the younger guys."  And who exactly are "some of the younger guys" you're referring to?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

They will only regret it if some vet edge player signed after June 1 becomes a productive member of another team. If it was a matter of cutting him to save $6.7 million in cap space right away I might agree with you. Doing it to save $6.7 million in June makes no sense to me.

 

I really hope they can get him to agree to a reworked contract, let him keep his money this year but reduce the cap hit of keeping him or cutting him in 2025 and tell him he'll be cut right away if he doesn't agree. If he doesn't agree then sure, cut him, otherwise the threat is toothless.

 

You only need that person to be more productive than Von. And if as I suspect Von will be little better next year than this that isn't a very high bar at all.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There really is nasty ramifications. Releasing him this offseason would incur a 17.08 dead cap hit this season and a 15.417 dead cap hit next season as well. We'd take on over 32 in Dead Cap and save 6.7 on a post 6/1 cut. Meanwhile, in keeping him, we could take on just 15m dead cap next season and save 8.5 in 2025.

 

So we'd be eating 32m in dead cap and saving 6.7 cutting him this year or eating 15m in dead cap and saving 8.5 next year. It's really a no brainer.

Compounding the issue is the fact that, as opposed to CB, we're razor thin at DE. Cutting Miller would leave us with just Greg Rousseau, Kingsley Jonathan, and Kameron Cline under contract. 

 

And if you want to make it about cap space to spend on DE and damn the repercussions next year - there's actually a way to save 12m this year prior to 6/1. And it involves keeping him. It isn't advised, but neither is cutting him:

 

You want to make it as simple as "cut Von now and save 6.7m". It's not. There's a reason why this is only something that's talked about as a possibility by fans. 

 

It's simply not going to happen. And if it's about getting money for his replacement this year and putting blinders on to repercussions - it still makes more sense to keep him. 

 

But the dead money next year is already factored in. Because they are on the hook for that anyway and if the plan was, as everyone has pretty much concluded it was, to cut him after 3 years of the deal then the ONLY ramification to next year is you cut him now and all $15m of that is on 2025's cap whereas if you cut him after next season you have the ability to spread that over two years. But you are still on the hook for all that money. It has already been paid. Von has it in his bank. The Bills have to account for every dollar of it and have been planning on that basis. 

 

And the $17m in dead cap this year if you cut him is $17m you are accounting for whether he is here or not. 

 

So the question remains have him at nearly $24m and him be here or have him at $17m and not be here and have $6.7m to spend on an alternative who can be more productive. 

 

If you think Von can bounce back and produce sure it is a no brainer to keep him but if as I do you think he is toast it is equally a no brainer to cut him. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the dead money next year is already factored in. Because they are on the hook for that anyway and if the plan was, as everyone has pretty much concluded it was, to cut him after 3 years of the deal then the ONLY ramification to next year is you cut him now and all $15m of that is on 2025's cap whereas if you cut him after next season you have the ability to spread that over two years. But you are still on the hook for all that money. It has already been paid. Von has it in his bank. The Bills have to account for every dollar of it and have been planning on that basis. 

 

And the $17m in dead cap this year if you cut him is $17m you are accounting for whether he is here or not. 

 

So the question remains have him at nearly $24m and him be here or have him at $17m and not be here and have $6.7m to spend on an alternative who can be more productive. 

 

If you think Von can bounce back and produce sure it is a no brainer to keep him but if as I do you think he is toast it is equally a no brainer to cut him. 

 

 

But as the other poster said at one point, cutting Von means you have to replace him.  And not just with a single $6.7 million DE.  You'd be cutting a rostered DE after having already paid him all that money and would leave yourself with only Player X who replaces Von, Kline, and Groot.  You need at least 2, probably 3 more rosterable DEs on this team.

 

And again... you've already paid Von a ton of money, so if there's any thought he can be a value to the roster as a contributor, it doesn't make much sense to cut him.

[SoCal Deek]

25 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But as the other poster said at one point, cutting Von means you have to replace him.  And not just with a single $6.7 million DE.  You'd be cutting a rostered DE after having already paid him all that money and would leave yourself with only Player X who replaces Von, Kline, and Groot.  You need at least 2, probably 3 more rosterable DEs on this team.

 

And again... you've already paid Von a ton of money, so if there's any thought he can be a value to the roster as a contributor, it doesn't make much sense to cut him.

Oh come on. Did you focus on him? Von was no better than a pet rock out there this entire season. Just because you’re paying him it doesn’t mean he has to take up one of the very limited roster spots. He did nothing! 

[Patrick Duffy]

25 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Because he always has.

 

He was still playing at an extremely high level in the 10 games he played in 2022 at age 33.

 

If we get 80% of that 10 game in 2022 Von Miller, it's better than "some of the younger guys."  And who exactly are "some of the younger guys" you're referring to?

 

I just think he may be at that point in his career that this time may be different. And yes I agree he did play well those 10 games in 2022 at 33yo. Now this is 2024 and age 35. May not seem like much, but those 2 years from 33 to 35 can be a bigger difference than it seems. Don't get me wrong, I hope he does but I just have my doubts.

 

 

The younger guys I was thinking of was obviously AJE, Kingsley played hard when he got opportunities

[BillsFanForever19]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the dead money next year is already factored in. Because they are on the hook for that anyway and if the plan was, as everyone has pretty much concluded it was, to cut him after 3 years of the deal then the ONLY ramification to next year is you cut him now and all $15m of that is on 2025's cap whereas if you cut him after next season you have the ability to spread that over two years. But you are still on the hook for all that money. It has already been paid. Von has it in his bank. The Bills have to account for every dollar of it and have been planning on that basis. 

 

And the $17m in dead cap this year if you cut him is $17m you are accounting for whether he is here or not. 

 

So the question remains have him at nearly $24m and him be here or have him at $17m and not be here and have $6.7m to spend on an alternative who can be more productive. 

 

If you think Von can bounce back and produce sure it is a no brainer to keep him but if as I do you think he is toast it is equally a no brainer to cut him. 

 

 

Incorrect. Here's the very definition of Dead Cap:

 

"Dead cap is money that is on your cap for a player who is not on your team. It is almost always money (usually signing bonus) that the team already paid the player but did not account for on the salary cap. It could also be guaranteed salary that the team still needs to pay for a player who they cut."

 

That 17m Dead Cap is not sitting on the table now. It only comes into factor if we release him with a Post 6/1 designation. Here's the chart and who we're accounting for in Dead Money:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/#

 

There's a reason that this contract was always looked at as a 6 year deal that's really only a 3 year deal. The out comes in 2025. Anything before that and you're cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

If it's really this simple, then why does every capologist say we're essentially stuck? That it would cost us way more to cut him than keep him for one more year?

[transplantbillsfan]

7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Oh come on. Did you focus on him? Von was no better than a pet rock out there this entire season. Just because you’re paying him it doesn’t mean he has to take up one of the very limited roster spots. He did nothing! 

 

Not true in his last 2 games.

 

Even Joe Marino in his All-22 review of the KC game said Von was one of the best defenders on the field that game.

 

And Joe has said all season that Von should have been inactive because of his lack of contribution.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Incorrect. Here's the very definition of Dead Cap:

 

"Dead cap is money that is on your cap for a player who is not on your team. It is almost always money (usually signing bonus) that the team already paid the player but did not account for on the salary cap. It could also be guaranteed salary that the team still needs to pay for a player who they cut."

 

That 17m Dead Cap is not sitting on the table now. It only comes into factor if we release him with a Post 6/1 designation. Here's the chart and who we're accounting for in Dead Money:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/#

 

There's a reason that this contract was always looked at as a 6 year deal that's really only a 3 year deal. The out comes in 2025. Anything before that and you're cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

If it's really this simple, then why does every capologist say we're essentially stuck? That it would cost us way more to cut him than keep him for one more year?

 

The $17m IS sitting on the table right now. He is being paid it to be here. It is the guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary. He would be paid it if he was not here also but then it would be dead money. But he is being paid it anyway. The question is do you pay him $6.7m more.

 

If you are on about the $15m - my pojnt there is the Bills have known about that dead money since they did the restructure. They likely planned to cut bait after 2024 anyway - a 5 year year deal that was really a 3 year deal so that $15m has already been baked into their plan. The only thing they lose by cutting him a year ahead of plan is the ability to split that $15m over two years of cap.

Edited February 7 by GunnerBill

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The $17m IS sitting on the table right now. He is being paid it to be here. It is the guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary. He would be paid it if he was not here also but then it would be dead money. But he is being paid it anyway. The question is do you pay him $6.7m more.

 

If you are on about the $15m - my pojnt there is the Bills have known about that dead money since they did the restructure. They likely planned to cut bait after 2024 anyway - a 5 year year deal that was really a 3 year deal so that $15m has already been baked into their plan. The only thing they lose by cutting him a year ahead of plan is the ability to split that $15m over two years of cap.

 

Everything I've read everywhere does not ascertain your statement that we'd save money cutting him this offseason. I've not found one article or post that says we'd be better off doing it this year.

 

With how he performed last year and our cap situation this year, if it were really as simple as cut him and save 6.7m with no other ramifications, everyone would say do it.

 

No one does. Just you and some other fans on the board. I'll go with the actual experts, who are trying to find any possible way to save anything and never list cutting Von. I don't think it's as simple as you and others are making it out to be. Or else it would be a no brainer.

 

EDIT: Okay, i've found something. And again, it doesn't support your idea that it's a good call to cut him now, explaining why no one recommends doing it.

 

Overthecap says Post 6/1 2024 - 17m in Dead Cap, 6.7 in cap savings.

 

Post 6/1 2025 - 6.37m in Dead Cap, 17.5 in cap savings

 

That's why you don't do it this year. You're paying 17m in Dead Cap for 6.7 in savings wherein next year, you're paying just 6.37 for 17.5 in savings.

 

In the long run, you're essentially paying 11m to cut him now and create another hole.

Edited February 7 by BillsFanForever19

[MasterStrategist]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The $17m IS sitting on the table right now. He is being paid it to be here. It is the guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary. He would be paid it if he was not here also but then it would be dead money. But he is being paid it anyway. The question is do you pay him $6.7m more.

 

If you are on about the $15m - my pojnt there is the Bills have known about that dead money since they did the restructure. They likely planned to cut bait after 2024 anyway - a 5 year year deal that was really a 3 year deal so that $15m has already been baked into their plan. The only thing they lose by cutting him a year ahead of plan is the ability to split that $15m over two years of cap.

Your last point, I think is the primary issue.  $15m next year would be a HUGE hit. 

 

I think we get better "value" keeping him this year, vs a replacement at $6.7m.  And as mentioned, more importantly we can spread $15m dead cap over 2 years.

 

People forget we signed Floyd for $7-8m against the cap (forget exact #), but built in a deap cap for this year.  Beane isn't going to double up the problem by cutting Von and doing a similar Floyd signing.  

 

Better alternative is doing a Floyd type signing and keep Von.  Financially we can do that

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Tre White is still the best corner on the Bills. I don't think it is close. Even if he can only get back to 80% I'd take him over the other guys.

 

Not even close? This is just factually wrong. We got the exact comparison you're making just last season. Tre White was at least at 80% last season. And that best game you talk about? It wasn't better than Douglas' best game. The games that weren't that game, he wasn't playing at the level that Douglas was for us prior to going down in Miami.

 

He didn't fully return to form with any sort of consistency before the Achilles injury. And now he'll be coming back from that too. He's a complete question mark at this point. There's no saying he'll even be 80% of what he was. It's incorrect to say that he was better than Douglas last year and insane to say he definitively will be when he returns.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the remaining unguaranteed element of his 2024 salary guarantees if he is on the roster on the third day of the league year. So they have to make the decision before OTAs and minicamps. 

 

EDIT: I expect the Bills to keep him. It just isn't the move I'd make and my suspicion is they will end up regretting it. 

I agree, they will end up regretting it. If they think Von somehow bounces back this fall they're dreaming. Release him and wear it. Spend the 6.7 toward DQ and draft DE.  

[Patrick Duffy]

5 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Not even close? This is just factually wrong. We got the exact comparison you're making just last season. Tre White was at least at 80% last season. And that best game you talk about? It wasn't better than Douglas' best game. The games that weren't that game, he wasn't playing at the level that Douglas was for us prior to going down in Miami.

 

He didn't fully return to form with any sort of consistency before the Achilles injury. And now he'll be coming back from that too. He's a complete question mark at this point. There's no saying he'll even be 80% of what he was. It's incorrect to say that he was better than Douglas last year and insane to say he definitively will be when he returns.

 

Not trying to get all up in you guys conversation, but just wanted to say Benford is emerging as the best corner imo. Of course you can't leave out T. Johnson either

[John from Riverside]

Hoping we bring back guys like Kingsley Jonathan
 

Always over performs will be on a good contract and we need that kind of youth movement