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Bigvinny

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47 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That's a really cheap trade-up into the top-10, isn't it?

 

For a Top 5 pick? Yes, that's not nearly enough. To 8 though? It's a fairly solid deal.

 

8 is worth 406. 28, 128, and 160 are worth 238. Let's say next year, Minnesota's 2nd is Pick 43 and ours is Pick 60 (which is a fair estimate) - that's 230 points. Bringing the total to 468 - 406.

 

We'll call the 62 point differential a depreciation based on them being picks next year. But both those 2nd's are worth a 1st next year. If they wanted our 1st instead of the 2 2's, I'd definitely do that too - knowing I could probably move them to get back into the 1st if I wanted to.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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19 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

For a Top 5 pick? Yes, that's not nearly enough. To 8 though? It's a fairly solid deal.

 

8 is worth 406. 28, 128, and 160 are worth 238. Let's say next year, Minnesota's 2nd is Pick 43 and ours is Pick 60 (which is a fair estimate) - that's 230 points. Bringing the total to 468 - 406.

 

We'll call the 62 point differential a depreciation based on them being picks next year. But both those 2nd's are worth a 1st next year. If they wanted our 1st instead of the 2 2's, I'd definitely do that too - knowing I could probably move them to get back into the 1st if I wanted to.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

 

That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts...

 

...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills. 

 

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30 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts...

 

...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills. 

 

 

There's no set rule on the valuation of picks the following year. I think the concept of taking the estimated area of pick and doing a full 32 pick depreciation from there is a little steeper than reality and how they've been valued in recent years.

 

I'd say, at most, you'd say each 2nd is valued as the last two picks in the 2nd - as it's guaranteed to be at least that and almost *definitely* will be worth a lot more (especially since one of them is Minnesota's pick).

 

If we were to do that, the tally would be 406 from Atlanta to 399 from Buffalo. Maybe up the 160 to 144 (keeping the 160) and throwing in 163. That would be 412 from Buffalo and 406 from Atlanta (if we're working on the idea of next year's 2nd's being worth 63 and 64).

 

With 28, 128, 143, 163, and both 2nd's (or next year's 1st, if they preferred that) next year going to Atlanta for Pick 8.

 

Either way, it doesn't "HEAVILY" favor Buffalo. There's a MAJOR difference between trading to 4 and trading to 8. While i'd agree that Sim's often allow trades that are not based in reality, this one isn't unrealistic based on chart values and recent trades.

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There's no set rule on the valuation of picks the following year. I think the concept of taking the estimated area of pick and doing a full 32 pick depreciation there is a little steeper than reality and how they've been valued in recent years.

 

I'd say, at most, you'd say each 2nd is valued as the last two picks in the 2nd - as it's guaranteed to be at least that and almost *definitely* will be worth a lot more (especially since one of them is Minnesota's pick).

 

If we were to do that, the tally would be 406 from Atlanta to 399 from Buffalo. Maybe up the 160 to 144 (keeping the 160) and throwing in 163. That would be 412 from Buffalo and 406 from Atlanta (if we're working on the idea of next year's 2nd's being worth 63 and 64).

 

With 28, 128, 143, 163, and both 2nd's (or next year's 1st, if they preferred that) next year going to Atlanta for Pick 8.

 

Either way, it doesn't "HEAVILY" favor Buffalo. There's a MAJOR difference between trading to 4 and trading to 8. While i'd agree that Sim's often allow trades that are not based in reality, this one isn't unrealistic based on chart values and recent trades.

 

You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals. 

 

I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.)

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NFL Mock Draft Database Simulator:

 

image.thumb.png.bfde516d7c438563130c189784141eb1.png

image.thumb.png.6b64a57ab42cfbd077e75436d403a2e2.png

image.thumb.png.270c361447704c06445d84e026e63057.png

 

Trade Recap:

 

Buffalo Receives:

2024: Round 1, Pick 30

2024: Round 3, Pick 93

Baltimore Receives:

2024: Round 1, Pick 28

2024: Round 5, Pick 163

 

Buffalo Receives:

2024: Round 2, Pick 63

2024: Round 4, Pick 124

2024: Round 5, Pick 135

San Francisco Receives:

2024: Round 2, Pick 60

 

Buffalo Receives:

2024: Round 5, Pick 136

2024: Round 5, Pick 147

Denver Receives:

2024: Round 4, Pick 133

 

Buffalo Receives:

2025: Round 4

2025: Round 5

2025: Round 7

2025: Round 7

Detroit Receives:

2024: Round 5, Pick 136

 

Buffalo Receives:

2024: Round 5, Pick 161

2025: Round 6

Philadelphia Receives:

2024: Round 5, Pick 160

 

Buffalo Receives:

2024: Round 5, Pick 167

2025: Round 5

2025: Round 7

2025: Round 7

Minnesota Receives:

2024: Round 5, Pick 161

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Traded our 2025 second to move up in the second. Detroit moved up one and gifted #98. That was nice of them.

 

29.

Adonai MitchellWR Texas

40.

Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia

98.

T'Vondre SweatDT Texas

128.

Tykee SmithS Georgia

133.

Jaylen WrightRB Tennessee

144.

Zak ZinterOG Michigan

160.

Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss

200.

Brevyn Spann-FordTE Minnesota

204.

Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn

248.

Frank CrumOT Wyoming

Edited by Dr. Who
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PFN, this feel like a dream. No trades and what a haul. 

 

28.

Adonai MitchellWR Texas

60.

Xavier LegetteWR South Carolina

128.

Austin BookerEDGE Kansas

133.

Mason McCormickOG South Dakota State

144.

Javon SolomonEDGE Troy

160.

Kitan OladapoS Oregon State

163.

Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville

200.

Tip ReimanTE Illinois

204.

Dwight McGlothernCB Arkansas

248.

Fabien LovettDT Florida State

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MDD 1 trade. That's allot of beef on the right side of center.

 

33

Amarius Mims

OT | Georgia

TRADE

39

Xavier Worthy

WR | Texas

TRADE

60

Xavier Legette

WR | South Carolina

128

Ben Sinnott

TE | Kansas State

133

Nehemiah Pritchett

CB | Auburn

144

Mason McCormick

IOL | South Dakota State

160

Isaac Guerendo

RB | Louisville

163

Tyler Davis

DL | Clemson

200

Joe Milton

QB | Tennessee

204

Jalyx Hunt

EDGE | Houston Baptist

Edited by ScorpionZero
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28

Troy Franklin

WR | Oregon

 

62

Cooper Beebe

IOL | Kansas State

TRADE

 

93

DeWayne Carter

DL | Duke

TRADE

 

128

Luke McCaffrey

WR | Rice

 

133

Malik Mustapha

S | Wake Forest

 

144

Ben Sinnott

TE | Kansas State

 

160

Tommy Eichenberg

LB | Ohio State

 

163

Justin Eboigbe

DL | Alabama

 

200

Nelson Ceaser

EDGE | Houston

 

204

Sataoa Laumea

IOL | Utah

 

248

Dwight McGlothern

CB | Arkansas

 

250

J.D. Bertrand

LB | Notre Dame

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ESPN 

 

Round 1, Pick 28

Adonai Mitchell

Texas

 

Round 2, Pick 60

Troy Franklin

Oregon

 

Round 4, Pick 128

Beau Brade

Maryland

 

Round 4, Pick 133

Tip Reiman

Illinois

 

Round 5, Pick 144

Isaac Guerendo

Louisville

 

Round 5, Pick 160

Myles Cole

Texas Tech

 

Round 5, Pick 163

Tyler Davis

Clemson

 

Round 6, Pick 200

Kitan Oladapo

Oregon State

 

Round 6, Pick 204

Jalyx Hunt

Houston Christian

 

Round 7, Pick 248

Andrew Raym

Oklahoma

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1 minute ago, ScorpionZero said:

ESPN 

 

Round 1, Pick 28

Adonai Mitchell

Texas

 

Round 2, Pick 60

Troy Franklin

Oregon

 

Round 4, Pick 128

Beau Brade

Maryland

 

Round 4, Pick 133

Tip Reiman

Illinois

 

Round 5, Pick 144

Isaac Guerendo

Louisville

 

Round 5, Pick 160

Myles Cole

Texas Tech

 

Round 5, Pick 163

Tyler Davis

Clemson

 

Round 6, Pick 200

Kitan Oladapo

Oregon State

 

Round 6, Pick 204

Jalyx Hunt

Houston Christian

 

Round 7, Pick 248

Andrew Raym

Oklahoma

I picture you as a bear that comes out of hibernation to mock draft, and then grabs a beer and goes back to sleep after the draft is over. I like this draft, btw, but I'd rather trade up using a 2025 second to go grab McConkey to go along with Mitchell. 

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23 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals. 

 

I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.)

 

There isn't an exact baseline for the trade. As the two big trades that are used as a basis are moves to 6 and 10. This is to 8. But to review:

 

2011 Trade from 27-6:

1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2011

1st and 4th in 2012

 

2017 Trade from 27-10:

1st and 3rd in 2017

1st in 2018

 

So a move from 28-8 should be less than the 2011 Trade, but more than the 2017 Trade.

 

My proposal was:

1st, 4th, 5th, and 5th in 2024

2nd and 2nd in 2025

 

Or

 

1st, 4th, 5th, and 5th in 2024

1st in 2025

 

Again, If the 21 picks from 27 to 6 was two 1sts, a 2nd, and 2 4ths - moving 20 picks from 28 to 8 needs to be less. 

 

Maybe it should be:

 

1st, 4th, and 5th in 2024

1st and 3rd in 2025

 

This would be more than the Two 1sts and a 3rd cost in the Mahomes trade to 10 and less than the Julio Jones trade to 6.

 

I may or may not pay that price for Odunze. But in the insane scenario that either Harrison or Nabers were there - I think I'd do it. Especially with the extra picks we have this year, the extra 2nd from Diggs next year, and the projected 4th and 5th comp picks for Davis and Floyd next year.

 

That would still leave us with:

 

Pick 8 in Round 1, Round 2, Round 4, Round 5, Round 5, Round 6, Round 6, and Round 7 this year

 

Round 2, Round 2, Round 4, Round 4, Round 5, Round 6, and Round 6 next year.

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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Effectively traded UP in next year's first round (Tenn) by trading BACK into this year's 2nd and then UP higher into both 2nd and 3rd this year. Got a LOT of offensive prospects (at STRONG values) while still adding much needed defensive depth/contributors. This draft emphasizes what most fans want it to: OFFENSE. What would we think of adding JPJ and Worthy and Pearsall in first two days (when we only had 2 picks to begin with)? And then a bunch of early day three depth dudes on both sides of the ball.

 

image.thumb.png.a3b48c1d5d77184204fc4e0627b89ae5.png

 

Trading back always ends up being the most rewarding total haul, even though it involves voluntarily surrendering a pool of awesome prospects to other teams and then painfully watching those players get selected one-by-one ahead of our later pick. 

 

Edit: 1st rd trade-back

 

image.png.bd99db591f6e4e5ba50a5dbfd93b62ab.png

Edited by Richard Noggin
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Interesting thought exercise for folks.... I just did one on PFN where when on the clock at #28 the Chiefs made me an offer to trade up. Now normally the answer would be "don't trade with the Chiefs" but to come up from #32 (600 by the JJ chart) to #28 (660) they were offering to swap their second #64 (270) for my fourth #128 (44). So essentially they were essentially overpaying by the chart by 170 points which is the equivalent of a free mid 3rd round pick. 

 

I should say WR wise just the top 3 and Thomas were gone. Would you take that trade? I considered it too good to refuse and accepted. 

 

They then took Xavier Worthy with the pick and I thought that is going to be a pain for years to come but it allowed me to maximise my value and I ended up with:

 

#32 AD Mitchell

#57 (traded up three spots using a 5th) Jackson Powers-Johnson who fell - and I'm not sure he will fall that far but increasingly reading and hearing people say he drops out of the first.

#66 Braden Fiske after two small trade downs which allowed me to turn #133 into #104 in the meantime

#104 Jaden Hicks

 

So would I want the Bills to take that trade in reality? I mean I think the value is pretty enticing. If I got those first four picks out of it I'd be delighted. 

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On 2/8/2024 at 12:44 AM, Richard Noggin said:

 

Ergo. "Our linguistic pendulum swings away from the literate and toward the spoken in the ages of Youtube and TikTok, ergo people who call out spelling/grammar mistakes online are sad relics."

 

Harlan Coben wannabes.

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First shot trying out the ESPN simulator.

 

Round 1, Pick 28   Brian Thomas Jr.   LSU   WR   Rk: 24

 -  Lol no-brainer. A perfect start.

*** TRADE ***  #60 + #133  for   #62 + #113  (BAL - JaLynn Polk + Jared Wiley)

Round 2, Pick 62   Kingsley Suamataia   BYU   OT   Rk: 44

 -  Felt 60 was too high for a Hicks or Bishop, so took the small trade down to improve an asset.

 -  But then... there's Suamataia sitting at 62 at a premium position. Kinda gotta.

Round 4, Pick 113   Austin Booker   Kansas   EDGE   Rk: 112

 -  Traitsy underclassman at another premium position. High ceiling, lots of room for physical and technique development.

Round 4, Pick 128   Tanor Bortolini   Wisconsin   C/G   Rk: 122

 -  Another case of rare athleticism for an early enty at a pipeline position.

Round 5, Pick 144   Dominique Hampton   Washington   CB/S   Rk: 146

 -  Has the size and speed for big nickel, and ST applications ala Siran Neal.

Round 5, Pick 160   Isaac Guerendo   Louisville   RB   Rk: 153

 -  Explosive, blazing top-end speed can make one cut and head to the house.

Round 5, Pick 163   Decamerion Richardson   Miss. State   CB   Rk: 161

 -  Long and explosive, he's a projection here. Insofar as he compares to Elam, it's fine for #163OA.

Round 6, Pick 200   Jordan Magee   Temple   ILB   Rk: 167

 -  Fits the rangy and instinctive LB profile the Bills currently favor.

Round 6, Pick 204   Myles Cole   Texas Tech   DE/DT   Rk: 117

 -  He could be Groot or could be Boogie but this isn't much capital to invest to find out.

Round 7, Pick 248   Malik Mustapha   Wake Forest   S   Rk: 225

 -  This is a stupid ranking on the site, irl this probably never happens. Frankly I'm happy with him at 144 if need be.

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PFN, trade up and back and ...

 

19.

Brian Thomas Jr.WR LSU

44.

Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia

52.

Graham BartonOC Duke

60.

Braden FiskeDT Florida State

112.

Jaden HicksS Washington State

148.

Theo JohnsonTE Penn State

160.

Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville

200.

Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn

229.

Nathan ThomasOT Louisiana

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MDD 

 

12

Rome Odunze

WR | Washington

TRADE

28

Amarius Mims

OT | Georgia

39

Ladd McConkey

WR | Georgia

TRADE

60

Tyler Nubin

S | Minnesota

128

Zak Zinter

IOL | Michigan

133

Isaac Guerendo

RB | Louisville

144

Javon Solomon

EDGE | Troy

160

Nehemiah Pritchett

CB | Auburn

163

McKinnley Jackson

DL | Texas A&M

200

Tanor Bortolini

IOL | Wisconsin

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Skeeda 

 

33.

Troy FranklinWR Oregon

60.

Adisa IsaacEDGE Penn State

65.

Xavier LegetteWR South Carolina

133.

Tyler NubinS Minnesota

144.

Khristian BoydDT Northern Iowa

160.

Tip ReimanTE Illinois

163.

Isaiah DavisRB South Dakota State

200.

Blake FisherOT Notre Dame

204.

Joe MiltonQB Tennessee

248.

Nick CorreiaOG Rhode Island

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16

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR | LSU

TRADE (#28 and 2025 RD2)

 

84

Dominick Puni

IOL | Kansas

TRADE

 

98

DeWayne Carter

DL | Duke

TRADE

 

128

Luke McCaffrey

WR | Rice

 

133

Malik Mustapha

S | Wake Forest

 

144

Isaac Guerendo

RB | Louisville

 

160

Mason McCormick

IOL | South Dakota State

 

163

Tommy Eichenberg

LB | Ohio State

 

195

Jalyx Hunt

EDGE | Houston Baptist

TRADE

 

200

Myles Cole

EDGE | Texas Tech

 

204

Gabe Hall

DL | Baylor

 

248

Demani Richardson

S | Texas A&M

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7 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:

PFN, trade up and back and ...

 

19.

Brian Thomas Jr.WR LSU

44.

Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia

52.

Graham BartonOC Duke

60.

Braden FiskeDT Florida State

112.

Jaden HicksS Washington State

148.

Theo JohnsonTE Penn State

160.

Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville

200.

Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn

229.

Nathan ThomasOT Louisiana

Barton is a first rounder. I doubt Theo Johnson lasts that long. The model is off. It's a home run draft, though.

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PFN_Draft_result_1713241087086.thumb.png.273aef808d0e44518bd1b8e983078f39.png

 

Traded back to 29 then back again to 42. Jumped up to take the Yale kid at 126. All in all, 7 players selected, 6 of which are in the top 150. Still got the double dip at WR too. Would have liked a DT but McCormick was too enticing at that spot I was looking for one.

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17 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

PFN_Draft_result_1713241087086.thumb.png.273aef808d0e44518bd1b8e983078f39.png

 

Traded back to 29 then back again to 42. Jumped up to take the Yale kid at 126. All in all, 7 players selected, 6 of which are in the top 150. Still got the double dip at WR too. Would have liked a DT but McCormick was too enticing at that spot I was looking for one.

 

Interested if you prefer your draft or mine? Not competitively. Just which haul do you think will be more impactful short and long term? 

 

Also, you could consider this one I just ran with where I let it fall more organically (whereas above I forced the issue and spent future assets. Possibly a better haul, depending on your perspective. Doubling up on the Washington WRs is kind of cool, not to mention the overall roster depth and competition added. Guess I prefer the draft below to the one I posted moments ago lol. 

 

PFN_Draft_result_1713240592797.thumb.png.c37a6948b457a67593ae82444f0f4e65.png

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8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Interested if you prefer your draft or mine? Not competitively. Just which haul do you think will be more impactful short and long term? 

 

Also, you could consider this one I just ran with where I let it fall more organically (whereas above I forced the issue and spent future assets. Possibly a better haul, depending on your perspective. Doubling up on the Washington WRs is kind of cool, not to mention the overall roster depth and competition added. Guess I prefer the draft below to the one I posted moments ago lol. 

 

PFN_Draft_result_1713240592797.thumb.png.c37a6948b457a67593ae82444f0f4e65.png

I like the receiver combo I took better (just personal pref), plus I think Braswell can help right away, possibly Frazier too. Yours seems to have more immediate help in Nubin and Jenkins and Braelon Allen where mine was more about taking O-line and WR talent that is available in this draft class. I would have liked a CB or DT but couldn't resist the guys I took instead.

 

So maybe yours gets the edge in the short term where mine should pay off more long term.

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13 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

16

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR | LSU

TRADE (#28 and 2025 RD2)

 

84

Dominick Puni

IOL | Kansas

TRADE

 

98

DeWayne Carter

DL | Duke

TRADE

 

128

Luke McCaffrey

WR | Rice

 

133

Malik Mustapha

S | Wake Forest

 

144

Isaac Guerendo

RB | Louisville

 

160

Mason McCormick

IOL | South Dakota State

 

163

Tommy Eichenberg

LB | Ohio State

 

195

Jalyx Hunt

EDGE | Houston Baptist

TRADE

 

200

Myles Cole

EDGE | Texas Tech

 

204

Gabe Hall

DL | Baylor

 

248

Demani Richardson

S | Texas A&M

I really like this draft.  In a way, its an All-RAS team, lol.

 

Using assets from the Diggs trade to nab Thomas is something that just fits.  There is always the argument of waiting for others to come to you, but I'd be more than fine with it.

 

Puni is versatile, or trying to be, they had him at every OL position in the Senior Bowl.  He will play inside, but can move to OT if needed. 

 

Lil bro McAffrey is actually a step faster than his older brother.  But he isn't a high school QB who converted to WR, he's a college Qb who moved to WR.  Lots of talent who might just need more time at the position.

 

Guerrendo, a 221 lb RB who runs a 4.3, might be a better blocker than Cook right now, and you don't lose speed when he's in the game.

 

McCormick is a beast of a specimen and a 3 year starter. 

 

Hunt, Cole and Gabe Hall, it depends how they are used and having the right coach to use their talents.  A converted safety at edge, a 275 lb guy who was playing LB and a strong, quick 295 lb guy who was playing enough of a 2 gap, 5 tech, but might excel as in inside pass rusher (I liked him at the Senior Bowl).  Based on where you drafted them, if one of them works out, you are ahead of the game.

 

Nice job.

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Looks like PFN has updated the player rankings, and everyone is getting a drive on there with trade-downs, so... I gotta say, this draft seems pretty realistic, the biggest stretch is Mitchell dropping where he did but that's only because EVERYONE else got picked first. Oh, and Tennessee offered their '25 R1 to drop back 28 to 38, so... yeah I'm doing that.

 

PFN_Draft_result_1713283698036.thumb.png.c0e060cd5d131c7e0fd3d4468ec039ce.png

 

You know what number Jaylin is gonna get in camp, right? ;)

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28.

Brian Thomas Jr.WR LSU

60.

Javon BullardS Georgia

128.

Beaux LimmerOC Arkansas

133.

Jordan JeffersonDT LSU

144.

Jacob CowingWR Arizona

160.

Kitan OladapoS Oregon State

163.

Justin EboigbeDT Alabama

200.

Jamree KromahDT James Madison

204.

David WhiteWR Western Carolina

248.

Evan AndersonDT FAU

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28

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR | LSU

 

57

Ja'Lynn Polk

WR | Washington

TRADE

 

128

Tykee Smith

S | Georgia

 

133

Malik Mustapha

S | Wake Forest

 

144

Isaac Guerendo

RB | Louisville

 

163

Jordan Jefferson

DL | LSU

 

200

Dwight McGlothern

CB | Arkansas

 

204

Jaylan Ford

LB | Texas

 

248

Grayson Murphy

EDGE | UCLA

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PFN I decided in this draft to focus on making us a dominant rushing team and using play action. We're a could weather team, we need to act like it. To make a defense better is too control the football, and that's where the focus should be in this mock.

In 26 we can add defense. 

 

 

Screenshot_20240416-211924.png

Edited by ScorpionZero
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