Opponents are 3-15 the next game after beating us for the last 3 years.

[Mark Long Beach]

 

We DO get everyone's best shot.  If they manage to beat us, it clearly takes a toll on them.

 

As the title says, beginning in 2021, any opponent that manages to beat us, basically loses its next game with the record of 3-15.  If you look only at playoffs  with Josh Allen as our QB teams (5 years), teams are 0-5 after beating us.  We've been the kingmaker as to who wins the AFC, whichever team doesn't play us.

 

When we do lose it's a close loss. We are in position win almost every game until the end.  Out of 16 losing games (5 overtime), 14 were one score losses, with every one this year being a one score loss.

 

We are a good team.  We have Josh-Freaking-Allen!  This year we've had a rougher time of it record-wise and luck-wise, but we still have a good offense and a good enough defense. We can still right the ship and go for a run into the playoffs.  Even with our Key personnel losses like Milano, White, and Daquan, I still think we have enough horses.  Especially if we get Miller and Daquan back and effective. We get hot, we can win out.

 

I hate the gloom and doomers that wail and moan like we're New England and everything is F-ed.

 

2021 (11-6)  5 out of 6 were 1 score losses.  2 overtimes

w1   Pit 23-16 (7) -> w2  Loses to LV

w6  Ten 34-31 (3)-> w7 Wins vs KC

w9  Jax  9-6  (3)  -> w10 L Ind

w11 Ind 41-15 (26)-> W12 L TB

w13 NE 14-10  (4) -> W14 L Ind

w14 TB 33-27 (6) -> w15 L NO

Div KC  42-36 (6) -> CC  L Cin

 

2022  (13-3) 3 out of 4 were 1 score losses.  1 OT

w3 Mia 21-19 (2) -> w4  L Cin

w9 NYJ 20-17 (3) -> w10 L NE

w10 Min 33-30 (3) -> w11 L Dal

Div  Cin  27-10 (17) -> cc L KC

 

2023: (7-6)  All 1 score losses. 2 OT

w1 NYJ 22-16 (6)  -> w2 L Cin

w5 Jax 25-20 (5)  -> w6 W Ind

w7 NE  29-25 (4)  -> w8 L Mia

w9 Cin 24-18 (6)  -> w10 L Hou

w10 Den 24-22 (4)-> w11 W Min

w12 Phi 37-34 (3) -> w13 L Dal SF

Edited December 12, 2023 by Mark Long Beach
stupid emoticons+ Corrected Philly Loss

[Mikie2times]

Good post. I do think teams take a big swing at us. The national exposure will do that.
 

I’m just not as confident we will reconcile the close scores. As you point out, 3 years of this. So more likely going to be 4?
 

I would want to understand who was favored in these games as well but I appreciate the thought process here. 

[Mark Long Beach]

Roughly speaking you'd still expect .500 wins/losses.   It's not even close, which sure implies that they've shot their wad to beat us.

[Scott7975]

Interesting stat. This means we kept the Chiefs from getting 2 more rings and the Bengals from repeating. I like it. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. 

[Kincaid Kool-Aid]

Great insight OP! Unfortunately, this stat and many other measures give us a sense of "moral victory" in that the Bills are a clearly a highly competitive team. The fact remains that we've seen too many instances where we ultimately haven't been able to win the big games when it matters. Don't get me wrong, I'm grateful to be out of the "drought years," but at this point it's well past time where we need to take it to the next level.

 

Exhausting opponents is great, but it's high time we stop inexplicably dropping absurd games to inferior teams due to self-inflicted wounds AND start advancing when the games really count. This is where the angst and criticism comes in when we reflect on McD's tenure. I'm well past the point of being satisfied with being "good." I'm sick of having good to great regular seasons where we play everyone tough only to lose steam or flat out sh*t the bed in big moments. This is how we should all feel if we really believe in "Lombardi or bust" given our perceived talent and an established coaching staff. To make matters worse, it's disheartening to see that a total douche like Mahomes has made it to three super bowls and has won two rings while Josh and others haven't even sniffed the big game yet within roughly the same span of time.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Kincaid Kool-Aid

[Dan Darragh]

Some of the teams who beat us were so bad that it's not a surprise that they lost the next week, or the week after that or the following one. 

 

New England?  Jets?

Edited December 12, 2023 by Dan Darragh

[Mark Long Beach]

Agreed on those 2.  But the other 4 are fighting for playoff positioning.

[CSBill]

This is a rare, insightful, and fresh post. Thank you. It's early, but you are the frontrunner for "Post of the Week."

[bigK14094]

5 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

Some of the teams who beat us were so bad that it's not a surprise that they lost the next week, or the week after that or the following one. 

 

New England?  Jets?

You know Dan, some of us on this board still remember the real Dan Darragh.  Its was 68, right?  (I was at Ft Polk watching on a 13" b/w tv in the EM club)

[boater]

The dude posts an optimistic comment---then gets multiple contrarian comments in return.

 

This board... is it full of negative types, or is it just that a few negative types are very active?

[H2o]

Actually, the Eagles L the following week was to the 49ers. Then they lost to the Cowboys as well. 

 

[Dan Darragh]

57 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

You know Dan, some of us on this board still remember the real Dan Darragh.  Its was 68, right?  (I was at Ft Polk watching on a 13" b/w tv in the EM club)

'68 was the year that the Bills started 4 different QBs: Darragh (7 starts), Eddie Rutkowski (3 starts), Tom Flores (1 start) and Kay Stephenson (3 starts).  Two of them would become NFL head coaches, one would become Erie County Executive and one would become a partner in a large Buffalo law firm.  Smart guys. But as QBs they weren't so hot.  The Bills went 1-12-1.

 

Darragh played a bit in '69 and '70 and finished with a starting QB record of 1-10. My kinda guy. 

 

I actually had a case with him once in the '80s when I was a lawyer in Rochester.  Nice guy, and he never seemed to get impatient with #######s like me who wanted to talk football with a real pro.

[RiotAct]

pretty crazy stat - I think there’s definitely something to it.

[SoCal Deek]

44 minutes ago, boater said:

The dude posts an optimistic comment---then gets multiple contrarian comments in return.

 

This board... is it full of negative types, or is it just that a few negative types are very active?

Negative? How so? The point of being a football team is to win games. It isn’t to make it really hard for the team that just beat you to win their next game. 

[BBFL]

So Chiefs going on a 3 game skid? Do they lose to New England???

[strive_for_five_guy]

Teams should start to consider not trying to beat us then 😉

[Captain Hindsight]

19 minutes ago, BBFL said:

So Chiefs going on a 3 game skid? Do they lose to New England???

I could see NE pulling off an upset. Belichick is a good coach and they will be motivated to win after getting flexed out of MNF. With the game in Foxboro and the Chiefs pressing, I could see an upset

 

 

[GustheDog33]

8 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I could see NE pulling off an upset. Belichick is a good coach and they will be motivated to win after getting flexed out of MNF. With the game in Foxboro and the Chiefs pressing, I could see an upset

 

 

Didn't know you could see the future, too, Hindsight...

Edited December 12, 2023 by GustheDog33

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, boater said:

The dude posts an optimistic comment---then gets multiple contrarian comments in return.

 

This board... is it full of negative types, or is it just that a few negative types are very active?

 

They're called counterperspectives and unless they're way off base, why the ad hominem at large?  

 

This should be a place for discussion and exchange of ideas.  If we were all that, then we'd all be talking about how we'd only need to go 2-2 to clinch the 1st Seed, which frankly, given the talent that we have, contrasted with every other team in the AFC this season, is where we should be.  

 

I'm still chuckling at MLB's (OP) "... wail and moan ..." comment, in good nature, truly, imagining some Bills fans at home actually wailing and moaning.  LOL  

 

But leaning a little more seriously, talk about "wailing and moaning," we wail and moan, and I'm not talking about those that you label as "negative types," largely talking about the others, but we "wail and moan" over our "inadequate" receiving corps of Diggs, Davis, Shakir, and Kincaid, but imagine if we had a 34-year old Kelce, Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a moment.  Imagine the complaints coming in then.  We have better WRs than any other AFC team besides possibly Cincy and that's even debatable.  

 

At the end of the day we're a 7-6 team currently "seeded" 11th and incontention for the 6th and 7th seeds with 6 total teams, none of which we have the tiebreaker over.  There isn't a team behind us that has a realistic shot if even a mathematical one at making the playoffs.  Much like 2017, we need help from other teams, or at least a slump by most of them.  Unlike 2017 when we were the worst team of any in playoff contention, we're arguably the best team in the AFC this season on paper.  

 

Do we have more talent than all of them?  Absolutely, and with Burrow being out for the Bengals.  So why are we 7-6 along with the other five then?  It's a fair question.  To label everyone that sees that and acknowledges it as some sort of negative type is simply not fair to them, do as one may there.  

 

Every single one of the teams that we're in contention with also has the ability to go between 3-1 and 1-3, Denver and Houston in particular on the high side and possibly 4-0 with Denver being the one of the hottest teams in the league right now at what, 5-1 their last 6 I think.  

 

We play Dallas next, which is arguably the most balanced team in the league from O to D and pass-to-run alongside San Fran. 

Then we're @ the Chargers where we haven't won since the '70s under Knox, and where we'll be playing a game starting at 11 p.m. our time.  The last time we had time-zone or jetlag issues we didn't fare so well. 

Then vs. New England, but most of us will be on pins and needles going into that game, don't you think, considering the way that they played us in the first game and given Belichick v. McChoke-in-Big-Moments?  

Then @ Miami to finish the season, which will be like a playoff game.  Need we be reminded of last season where they nearly beat us with Skylar Thompson who hasn't taken a snap this season, or them nearly beating us at the end of the season, both games in Buffalo, with Tua.  

 

Nothing is a given at this point.  Everyone's stunned the Miami lost to Tennessee.  If they manage to lose to the Jets while we beat the Cowboys, incredibly and against all odds the division is back in play, particularly with them hosting Dallas and @ Baltimore after that before they play us.  Our game could very well decide the division, which many thought to not even be possible if that happens.  

 

Your association between contrarian comments and people being negative is misplaced imo.  

 

This team is far from having an identity of stepping up in the biggest of games.  Factor in that our point-differential over our last 9 games is a mere +26, and -6 if we do not include the Jets game at home.  The combined record of teams that we've faced is 59-58.  On paper we're not all that different than the teams that we're competing with for those last 6th and 7th seeds.  

 

There's nothing wrong with being critical of your team, particularly when it's 7-6 but should have been 11-2, or at least 10-3 and in the driver's seat, and we haven't even mentioned having Allen yet.  Anyone being critical and concerned about playing a team that's playing better than us, a team that already beat us, a team that we have never beaten on their turf in over 40 years and in a 3-hour different time zone with a game starting at 11 p.m. our time, and @ Miami is hardly being negative.  

 

And lest we forget, absolutely nothing that anyone here says or does makes one iota of a difference in how our team plays.  

 

I guess I don't understand the hostilities towards fellow Bills fans in simply discussing varying aspects of our team.  

 

 

Edited December 12, 2023 by PBF81

[Captain Hindsight]

25 minutes ago, GustheDog33 said:

Didn't know you could see the future, too, Hindsight...

Called the titans last night...