Jump to content

Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator


Ray Stonada

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This is the result of the Bills winning out, and the likely favorite winning all of the other games. 

image.thumb.png.1608384f8e7d0d735a9e1736d3e83903.png

The Bills will not miss the playoffs if they go 11-6. That is just unnecessarily pessimistic.

 

- I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns don’t win another game.
- Houston is very inconsistent and eeking out wins/losses on final drives.

- The Colts and Steelers are playing over their heads right now. Nobody would be surprised if one of them starts stacking losses even with soft schedules.

 

11-6 will make it no doubt. It doesn’t matter though, because there is no way we win out.

Edited by DapperCam
  • Like (+1) 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

About our playoff chances:

 

We have 6 losses.

 

The division leaders are Miami, KC, Baltimore, and Jax.

 

There are 3 wildcard spots, and currently there are FIVE other teams with less than 6 losses, most of which have a better conference record.

 

No matter what we do, other than win out, it's gonna be tough.

 

I'm starting to wish we would lose the next two weeks and end the misery.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I honestly had that thought today. Trade Diggs (save a bunch of money) draft Harrison and Rome O and we are loaded at receiver for great value for st least five years. 

imagine if miller comes alive in the last bit of the season and we could somehow dump him

  • Haha (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, boyst said:

imagine if miller comes alive in the last bit of the season and we could somehow dump him

Even with his funny Geico commercial, Miller has as much trade value as OJ.

1 minute ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

 

And one that would likely rip our hearts out again

I’m ready to be hurt again. I’ve taken being in the playoffs for granted now. It would suck not to be in them.

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

The Bills will not miss the playoffs if they go 11-6. That is just unnecessarily pessimistic.

 

- I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns don’t win another game.
- Houston is very inconsistent and eeking out wins/losses on final drives.

- The Colts and Steelers are playing over their heads right now. Nobody would be surprised if one of them starts stacking losses even with soft schedules.

 

11-6 will make it no doubt. It doesn’t matter though, because there is no way we win out.

Work your simulator magic, to show how the Bills get into the playoffs ahead of all of the Browns, Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Titans.  If the Dolphins finish 12-5 and or better, 11-6 Bills will lose tiebreakers in almost every scenario.  Show a realistic scenario, where the Dolphins are 12-5, The Bills 11-6, and the Bills get in as a wildcard.  Otherwise you are posting out of your hat. 

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I felt pretty bad this morning after 4 hours sleep (the game was from 10:30pm-2am in my time zone). So I did some calcuating of playoff odds as a distration, using the NYT simulator. 

 

If we win out: >99% chance of making it in

 

If we lose to KC only: 51%

If we lose to Cowboys: 63%

If we lose to the Chargers: 44%

If we lose to the Pats: 51%

If we lose to Miami: 45%

 

If we lose twice, no matter who: <10% chance

 

So there you have it.

 

Unfortunately, I am pessimistic about our chances to win close games, in the playoffs. In my opinion, you can pin this whole season (as well as the Houston playoff game and the 13 seconds game and a bunch of other games) on McD's soft defenses and bad strategy in crunchtime. I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

 

 

The defense is very good, particularly with the injuries they've suffered. Not good enough yesterday, that's for sure. But damn good under the circumstances.

 

It's just nonsense that it all comes down to that D. The offense, though really good the last two games, should absolutely share the blame. The two missed field goals were huge in this game as well.

 

Does the D deserve a very significant share of the blame? Absolutely. 

 

Man, that was a painful loss.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

I know all teams feel they should win more, but with the Buffalo Bills it is statistically indisputable. Our team loses far more than it should, given our offensive and defensive performance. I would love to see a stat that shows how much better or worse a team performs than it's statistical rankings. You could call it the Coaching Coefficient. My guess is McD would be pretty low.

 

I am bummed because no matter how hard we play (and these guys are playing hard, especially guys like Bernard or Floyd who are still not jaded by our past) we are hamstrung by this. It's like a dark cloud hanging over the team. And until that cloud is gone, it's hard to really enjoy this great bunch of players.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2023.htm

 

Pro football reference has an 'Expected W-L' which has Buffalo at 8.1-2.9 for this year.

 

From their glossary: Expected W-L - this is an estimate of what the team's record "should have been," given the team's points scored and allowed. The concept goes back to baseball analyst Bill James' Pythagorean formula.


Which the underlined then links to this wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation?force_isolation=true

 

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ray Stonada said:

 

I agree. But best to be up three scores by the 4th quarter, otherwise we might get McD'ed.

This is the most crazy part of the situation. In any close game, McD not only is useless in helping the Bills win, he actually becomes a factor in helping the Bills to LOSE. His inept coaching decisions on defense and poor clock and game management are the biggest liability. Kneel down with 20 seconds left and one TO? That decision was like he wanted us to lose. I have never seen a coach like him who in the heat of the moment has a knack for making the worst decision possible.

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Agree 2
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Negan said:

Chiefs L

Cowboys L

Chargers L

Patriots W

Dolphins L

Time for a higher draft pick, and hopefully McDermott gets fired 

Chargers are currently 4-7 and on a 3 game losing streak. So your L prediction seems a bit pessimistic, no? :)

Edited by CodeMonkey
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

Chargers are currently 4-7 and on a 3 game losing streak. So your L prediction seems a bit pessimistic, no? :)

I'm sure they'll find their way against a McDermott led defense, just hope we take the lead with zero's on the clock

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...