Bills are 7-14 in games decided by 7 pts or less, last 3 seasons

[Yobogoya!]

That number includes playoffs. It's a similar 6-13 if you don't include those games. 

 

This is after a 2020 season in which the Bills were 4-1 (including playoffs) in games decided by 7 points or less. 

 

I knew Josh was a gamer after his rookie season in 18, despite the struggles. There were flashes of greatness my eyes had never seen in a Bills QB (I was just a tot when Kelly played and had no real appreciation for the game back then). After 2019, there was progress and a sense we were turning the corner. 

 

But after that 2020 season, when Josh was not just a great QB but a guy who routinely led 4th quarter comebacks like it was nothing? Man, I remember thinking: "THIS is it. THIS is what it feels like to have a QB where you just KNOW you can win any game at the end."

 

Since then, this team has coughed up more winnable games -- and against some downright terrible competition mind you -- than I ever thought possible. And even though Josh has literally "thrown away" a couple of those games, there's been plenty where he's led us to the go-ahead score just for it to fall apart afterwards. 

 

That's on the culture. That's on guys in the locker room who just don't have the "gamer" in them to close out and finish. That's on coaches missing the key detail that gets the stop. And I hate to say it, but we've seen this for a long while now... even despite the strong records this regime has put up and the massive point differential we were boasting about for a while there. We need guys on the field and on the sideline who "know how to win."

 

This team has looked its weakest in the biggest moments they've faced. That kind of says it all, doesn't it?

[KHAN]

[Livinginthepast]

Yes, on this team, there is a huge gulf between between high skill level, athleticism and that elusive 3rd factor of experience of knowing what to do and how to win in a high pressure situation. Sadly I think that is connected to the coaching of this team and their culture. The players can trust the process all they want but if they don't truly buy in and/or start to believe that it is a fraud (which I am starting to wonder if they think this) then they will never get there.

[teef]

a couple of years ago i felt like the bills would win every one of those close games.  now i'm back to feeling like disaster will strike every time.  

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, KHAN said:

 

tell me that you got Dall-E to make that

 

it's brilliant and deserves to be printed on vellum, framed in mahogany, and hung in teh new AKG

[Big Turk]

Part of this is because they were normally bashing teams heads in.  Would it make you feel better if they allowed teams to get within a score late in the game instead of winning many of them by 10+ points? 20+ points?

[SectionC3]

Trust the process, which seems to (mostly) lose close games.  We’re a bunch of front runners who can’t come back and who can’t hold a lead when we do come back.  We don’t handle adversity well.  

Edited November 14, 2023 by SectionC3

[billieve420]

Plays down to the competition way too often. Unlike KC fails to win those close games and turn things on when they need to. This season has been just terrible with how slow the offense has started games. Compare to a team like Baltimore who has gotten out to early leads which in turn has helped their defense. With all the injuries on the defensive side our offense needs to get ahead early and put the pressure on the other team to play from behind.

[BuffaloRebound]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Part of this is because they were normally bashing teams heads in.  Would it make you feel better if they allowed teams to get within a score late in the game instead of winning many of them by 10+ points? 20+ points?

Most of those 7 wins by 7 points or less are exactly that.  No denying our end of game execution has been terrible.  

[KHAN]

13 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

tell me that you got Dall-E to make that

 

it's brilliant and deserves to be printed on vellum, framed in mahogany, and hung in teh new AKG

Yeah, it's Dall-E

[colin]

allen's teams have also never won an overtime game.

 

i remember a friend of mine (not a bils fan but a big football guy) who said the bills O (this is under daboll, 2020/2021 seasons) said the offense looks like guys just run around and allen either runs it or waits for someone to get open.  teams have read the book on how to stop that (basic zone, cover the deepest route, bait sideline throws) and our coaches and players either can't or refuse to adjust to stop that.  

 

we've seen the evidence that we can actually run the ball, and we can run the ball and throw play action from under center in a way that baffles opponents, but we revert to type and go 4 or 5 wide out of pistol or shot gun and a disciplined d can just watch us not throw underneath and make mistakes.

 

not being able to beat the constant zone d's we face is like a boxer not knowing how to face a southpaw.  at some point it is going to kill you unless you figure it out.  right now we are a boxer who doesn't know how to put his front foot outside and not get baited into counters, and every team we play just fights us out of southpaw.  we'll run 2 or 3 drives where we mix in what works, but penalties, turnovers, or just doomed play calls (not to mention drops and missed blocks) put us out of synch for the rest of our possessions.

 

the losing close games so often tells me the team is not confident, is not prepared to play winning situational football, and altho we have mad ability and some talent, we make the degree of difficulty against us super easy.

[Yobogoya!]

10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Part of this is because they were normally bashing teams heads in.  Would it make you feel better if they allowed teams to get within a score late in the game instead of winning many of them by 10+ points? 20+ points?

 

What would make me feel better is if we didn't blow a go-ahead score to QB's who suck. QB's like Mac Jones.

 

Take a look at this image of Mac Jones' passer rating this year. Does anything stand out to you? 

 

What would make me feel better is if the Bills defense, coordinated by our head coach, wasn't the worst at shutting down an absolute train wreck of a QB this year. That would make me feel better. A little bit anyway. 

[Kaenon]

Not a great team.

We have what we have.

[Big Turk]

Nice to cherry pick the last 2.5 years instead of overall since McD has been here.

 

They are 26-40 since 2017 when McD got here, which actually makes them Top 10 in terms of winning percentage in the NFL in these games.

 

Know how many teams have a winning record over that time?  2.

 

Kansas City is 37-26 and Pittsburgh is 48-39-2.  ALL other teams have losing records in games decided by 7 points or less.

 

OK, OK...but let's only talk about since the Bills were REALLY good.  Well, convenient you are leaving out 2020 when they had many such wins.

 

In fact when looked at it since 2020, the Bills are 13-17 in these games, which is 5th Best in the NFL.  And again, only 3 teams have winning records over that timeframe in these type of games.  KC, Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

 

 

And to original point, the Bills are actually 8-14 not 7-14 in those games if you are cherry picking the last 2.5 years.

 

The point?  Not many teams have winning records over ANY stretch of time when looking at "close" games.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[DapperCam]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Nice to cherry pick the last 2.5 years instead of overall since McD has been here.

 

They are 26-40 since 2017 when McD got here, which actually makes them Top 10 in terms of winning percentage in the NFL in these games.

 

Know how many teams have a winning record over that time?  2.

 

Kansas City is 37-26 and Pittsburgh is 48-39-2.  ALL other teams have losing records in games decided by 7 points or less.

 

OK, OK...but let's only talk about since the Bills were REALLY good.  Well, convenient you are leaving out 2020 when they had many such wins.

 

In fact when looked at it since 2020, the Bills are 13-17 in these games, which is 5th Best in the NFL.  And again, only 3 teams have winning records over that timeframe in these type of games.  KC, Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

 

 

And to original point, the Bills are actually 8-14 not 7-14 in those games if you are cherry picking the last 2.5 years.

That math isn’t mathing for me. Doesn’t every game decided by one score or less have both a winner and a loser? How could the entire league minus two teams have a losing record in such games?

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Nice to cherry pick the last 2.5 years instead of overall since McD has been here.

 

They are 26-40 since 2017 when McD got here, which actually makes them Top 10 in terms of winning percentage in the NFL in these games.

 

Know how many teams have a winning record over that time?  2.

 

Kansas City is 37-26 and Pittsburgh is 48-39-2.  ALL other teams have losing records in games decided by 7 points or less.

 

OK, OK...but let's only talk about since the Bills were REALLY good.  Well, convenient you are leaving out 2020 when they had many such wins.

 

In fact when looked at it since 2020, the Bills are 13-17 in these games, which is 5th Best in the NFL.  And again, only 3 teams have winning records over that timeframe in these type of games.  KC, Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

 

 

And to original point, the Bills are actually 8-14 not 7-14 in those games if you are cherry picking the last 2.5 years.

So 30 teams have losing records in one score games over that timeframe?  Sorry, your numbers don’t add up.  

[Success]

Nothing flukey about that.  It's a pattern.

 

And it's maddening.

 

[Yobogoya!]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Nice to cherry pick the last 2.5 years instead of overall since McD has been here.

 

They are 26-40 since 2017 when McD got here, which actually makes them Top 10 in terms of winning percentage in the NFL in these games.

 

Know how many teams have a winning record over that time?  2.

 

Kansas City is 37-26 and Pittsburgh is 48-39-2.  ALL other teams have losing records in games decided by 7 points or less.

 

OK, OK...but let's only talk about since the Bills were REALLY good.  Well, convenient you are leaving out 2020 when they had many such wins.

 

In fact when looked at it since 2020, the Bills are 13-17 in these games, which is 5th Best in the NFL.  And again, only 3 teams have winning records over that timeframe in these type of games.  KC, Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

 

 

And to original point, the Bills are actually 8-14 not 7-14 in those games if you are cherry picking the last 2.5 years.

 

The point?  Not many teams have winning records over ANY stretch of time when looking at "close" games.

 

I actually didn't leave out 2020, I mentioned that year second line in my post. It's part of what makes the last three years so frustrating. 

 

I feel like the point you're trying to make is that everyone sucks in one score games, so we shouldn't judge McDermott too harshly in this regard. Which is fine, except the top team in this graph is the exact team that stands between us and a championship EVERY year. 

 

Frankly the Chiefs and Mahomes are the primary team I'm concerned about comparing against. And as you've illustrated perfectly: the Chiefs close out and win these games very well. We don't. 

 

If you're OK with that, that's fine. But our best chance for a super bowl came down to 13 seconds. 

 

Remind me: the top team in your graph won that game, didn't they?

 

Well, I guess it's fine if we lost since your chart shows 27 other teams probably would have lost too. I guess? Right. 

[Not Applicable]

It's a loss that's gotten lost in the shuffle (especially after 13 Seconds), but that playoff loss in Houston was inexcusable and a huge precursor to the loser, choke-artist ball to which the Sean McDermott Bills teams have become accustomed.

[Yobogoya!]

Just now, Patrick Fitzryan said:

It's a loss that's gotten lost in the shuffle (especially after 13 Seconds), but that playoff loss in Houston was inexcusable and a huge precursor to the loser, choke-artist ball to which the Sean McDermott Bills teams have become accustomed.

 

Yes, even worse than just losing these types of games is that we love to lose them in some gaffe, clown-shoes type of way. 

 

This last game with the 12 men on the field negating a missed goal that would have sealed our victory was just hilarious because it's exactly how we routinely blow these games! haha

[DuckyBoys]

1 minute ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

It's a loss that's gotten lost in the shuffle (especially after 13 Seconds), but that playoff loss in Houston was inexcusable and a huge precursor to the loser, choke-artist ball to which the Sean McDermott Bills teams have become accustomed.

from memory we had them in 4th and forever and gave up a checkdown for a huge gain

 

Go back and look at the end of the game last night  They panned to McDermott on that last drive and the look on his face was sheer terror It wasnt confidence it wasnt we go this  It was how did we get to this point and what do I do now?   He knows the world knows he just doesnt have it to gut out the tough moments

[Ralonzo]

21 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Kansas City is 37-26 and Pittsburgh is 48-39-2.  ALL other teams have losing records in games decided by 7 points or less.

 

 

How does that even work? If it's not KC or Pitt involved, both teams lose?

[DuckyBoys]

well we havent played well in any of the close games this year and really could have easily lost the Giants and Bucs games on walk off losses at the buzzer  Defense cant hold a lead at the end or get a stop at the end  The offense isnt clicking , they made stupid mistakes and we have seen zero adjustments other than typical McDermott word salad

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

I actually didn't leave out 2020, I mentioned that year second line in my post. It's part of what makes the last three years so frustrating. 

 

I feel like the point you're trying to make is that everyone sucks in one score games, so we shouldn't judge McDermott too harshly in this regard. Which is fine, except the top team in this graph is the exact team that stands between us and a championship EVERY year. 

 

Frankly the Chiefs and Mahomes are the primary team I'm concerned about comparing against. And as you've illustrated perfectly: the Chiefs close out and win these games very well. We don't. 

 

If you're OK with that, that's fine. But our best chance for a super bowl came down to 13 seconds. 

 

Remind me: the top team in your graph won that game, didn't they?

 

Well, I guess it's fine if we lost since your chart shows 27 other teams probably would have lost too. I guess? Right. 

 

I still think it is mostly a BS stat.  So the Bills should get punished because they pounded teams down instead of "playing with their food" like KC does so often? Realistically there is no reason KC should be involved in THAT many close games based on their offense.

 

Would it make you feel better if the Bills had decided to let more teams hang around instead of making it a 30 point lead by the 3rd quarter?

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I still think it is mostly a BS stat.  So the Bills should get punished because they pounded teams down instead of "playing with their food" like KC does so often? Realistically there is no reason KC should be involved in THAT many close games based on their offense.

 

Would it make you feel better if the Bills had decided to let more teams hang around instead of making it a 30 point lead by the 3rd quarter?

I’d feel better if we didn’t puke all over ourselves at the end of close games.  

[FilthyBeast]

But I'm sure some homers will point out how this team 'blows out' bad teams in a majority of their wins like it actually means something.

[teef]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

But I'm sure some homers will point out how this team 'blows out' bad teams in a majority of their wins like it actually means something.

you are the worst kind of person.

[Yobogoya!]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I still think it is mostly a BS stat.  So the Bills should get punished because they pounded teams down instead of "playing with their food" like KC does so often? Realistically there is no reason KC should be involved in THAT many close games based on their offense.

 

Would it make you feel better if the Bills had decided to let more teams hang around instead of making it a 30 point lead by the 3rd quarter?

 

Lol, I'm really not sure why this is your hill to die on right now. 

 

Regardless of how you get there, if the game is close at the end someone is (probably) going to win it. This season we're 2-5 in those games, and the two games we won the argument could be made we never should have had to survive a last gasp effort by those teams. Especially Tyrod and the Giants, it's just inexcusable. 

 

But if you're ok with our clown-shoes coaching staff sending 12 players onto the field to blow another close game, in prime time, at home, in laughable fashion, go ahead... keep defending them on this. 

[Big Turk]

Something to chew on...

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

 

"To find out if close game records are random, I plotted teams’ records in games decided by 3 or fewer points (or OT) in a year (horizontal axis) and then their records in close games the next year (vertical axis) and this is what it looks like:

 

 

There is no correlation from one year to the next, suggesting almost complete randomness in close games. Just for illustration purposes, the fake data below shows what a strong correlation might look like."

 

2 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

Lol, I'm really not sure why this is your hill to die on right now. 

 

Regardless of how you get there, if the game is close at the end someone is (probably) going to win it. This season we're 2-5 in those games, and the two games we won the argument could be made we never should have had to survive a last gasp effort by those teams. Especially Tyrod and the Giants, it's just inexcusable. 

 

But if you're ok with our clown-shoes coaching staff sending 12 players onto the field to blow another close game, in prime time, at home, in laughable fashion, go ahead... keep defending them on this. 

 

Because statistically speaking close game records over any given length of time are almost completely random and fluctuate heavily from one year to the next with  a lot of "regression to the mean" of teams that won tons of close games one year and then lose a lot of them the following year(ie, Minnesota Vikings this year).

[FilthyBeast]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

you are the worst kind of person.

 

Why is that Teef, because I'm posting and saying the same exact thing I have for years about this failure of a head coach and organization and others are just finally catching up to it?

 

You can only avoid the inevitable for so long......

[Big Turk]

I went back and hand counted Bills games since 2020 on PFR's site and the Bills have a 13-14 record in 1 score games since 2020.  So basically, they were .500 before last night's game. Certainly not as "woeful" as the OP is trying to make out and pointing almost directly towards there being no correlation from one year to the next in terms of records in 1 score games.

 

If you look at the Bills "expected" win totals over the last 4 seasons, they pretty much alternate. 

In 2020, the Bills went 13-3 but expected wins were 10.6.

In 2021, the Bills went 11-6 but expected wins were 13.1.

In 2022 the Bills went 13-3  but expected wins were 12.0. 

This year the Bills are 5-5 but expected wins are 7. 

 

We are seeing how randomness in close games work first hand to a large degree.

 

Not sure what is up with statmuse, that site is usually pretty good with those type of things.

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[Yobogoya!]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Something to chew on...

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/is-winning-close-games-in-the-nfl-luck-6118d3d8a701

 

"To find out if close game records are random, I plotted teams’ records in games decided by 3 or fewer points (or OT) in a year (horizontal axis) and then their records in close games the next year (vertical axis) and this is what it looks like:

 

 

There is no correlation from one year to the next, suggesting almost complete randomness in close games. Just for illustration purposes, the fake data below shows what a strong correlation might look like."

 

 

Because statistically speaking close game records over any given length of time are almost completely random and fluctuate heavily from one year to the next with  a lot of "regression to the mean" of teams that won tons of close games one year and then lose a lot of them the following year(ie, Minnesota Vikings this year).

 

The data is actually interesting in a vacuum, but it's missing context.

 

It may SUGGEST RANDOMNESS, but these games are NOT determined at random. This isn't a Madden simulator. 

 

In real time, coaches are making decisions and calling plays. At the end of these games, players are on the field trying to execute those decisions.

 

Those decisions have led to such infamous outcomes as the Hail Murray and 13 Seconds. They've led to us losing in humiliating fashion to mediocre teams several times this year. 

 

Was it "random" that Tom Brady and Belichick routinely won these games?

 

Is it "random" that Mahomes and Reid now do the same?

 

Well, like you say: It's food for thought I guess. 😏

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

The data is actually interesting in a vacuum, but it's missing context.

 

It may SUGGEST RANDOMNESS, but these games are NOT determined at random. This isn't a Madden simulator. 

 

In real time, coaches are making decisions and calling plays. At the end of these games, players are on the field trying to execute those decisions.

 

Those decisions have led to such infamous outcomes as the Hail Murray and 13 Seconds. They've led to us losing in humiliating fashion to mediocre teams several times this year. 

 

Was it "random" that Tom Brady and Belichick routinely won these games?

 

Is it "random" that Mahomes and Reid now do the same?

 

Well, like you say: It's food for thought I guess. 😏

 

And the difference between a missed throw by 2 inches or a tipped pass or an official's call at the right time(or several right times in some games) can decide things that just as easily could have went the other way.  

 

Funny that Mahomes was the one who ended the game last year in a close game with an INT against the Bills who apparently "Suck" in close games(but actually don't with a 13-14 record since 2020) then right?

 

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Big Turk

[teef]

31 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Why is that Teef, because I'm posting and saying the same exact thing I have for years about this failure of a head coach and organization and others are just finally catching up to it?

 

You can only avoid the inevitable for so long......

no...because you're a phins fan who for some reason wants to post here under the guise of a bills fan.  when things are good you're no where to be found.  when things go bad you're here to celebrate.  remember when you lied to everyone last year about that twitter account of yours?  to the point where you blamed me for it?  yeah...the worst.