Shotgun at the 1 Yard Line

[Franco_92]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Shotgun dart. Shart. Sounds about right.

 

From now on, I will call that play the Shart.

Again, we have run that play INCREDIBLY well. I can probably  pull 20 examples of getting 5+ yards on it in the last few weeks. And then faking it on RPOs were everyone's favorite Davis plays against Tampa, faking it to run Josh scored us a TD against Miami etc. It is foolish to hate this play lol they DOMINATE with it. Our tackles love to pull in the run game. The play is in shotgun so they have room to do it.

 

So answer the question, then - if logic dictates it's better to get a head start, why does the data show it's worse at scoring touchdowns from the 1 yard line? what's the disconnect? There are clearly details that your analysis doesn't consider. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

21 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Sneaks have hurt Mahomes, Lance and Purdy I believe in recent years, off the top of my head. It's not a risk free play. There are many factors the coaches consider that fans can't acknowledge because we don't know what they are, in addition to injury concerns. The coaches don't just forget that this play is in the playbook, and they are not dumb, and they especially aren't dumber than Bills internet rabble, and yet they sometimes don't run this play. I bet part of it is Allen's general discomfort under center, and a recent history of shaky snap transactions under center. Allen fumbled at least 3 of these in fairly big moments last year.

Providing one off examples dont prove your point.  I could also use Tom Brady and an example, one of the most prolific runner of QB sneaks that not once was ever hurt.  Good example but doesnt prove my point nor do your examples prove the contra.  And try Lance was hurt on a power run, not a QB sneak.

[Franco_92]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Every team and situation is different.  And when you have Josh Allen on your team, statistically it is incorrect to hand the ball off to an aging RB 5-6 yards deep than to let Josh sneak it in.  This is a statistical mistake 100% of the time, regardless if the shotgun run works or not and regardless if the QB sneak play works or not.  100% of the time you run out of shotgun over letting Allen sneak it from inside the 1 is a statistical mistake.  

I understand and have emphasized that these decisions need to consider what your team is good at. 

The Bills are an elite red zone team. 

 

My last few posts have been discussing philosophy of shotgun runs from the one and elsewhere in general, not what the Bills should do - I agree that the Bills should sneak from the one, and I think they should also pass more from under center when they do decide to pass there as well. This comes from Bills data.

3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Providing one off examples dont prove your point.  I could also use Tom Brady and an example, one of the most prolific runner of QB sneaks that not once was ever hurt.  Good example but doesnt prove my point nor do your examples prove the contra.  And try Lance was hurt on a power run, not a QB sneak.

Lol what is my point? My point is that fans making blanket statements and present them as the only correct option and declare our OC ret@rded probably aren't as nuanced as they think they are. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Franco_92

[Charles Romes]

“1 yard line” encompasses a huge range of distances. Can mean 1 mm to almost four and a half feet. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Charles Romes

[RoyBatty is alive]

14 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

If your objective is to not have your QB hit, running a sneak is not a good play.  I don't know how to dumb this down any more for you.

 

Everyone in the FO wants to extend Josh's career.  Having him get hit less was thought to be a good way to do that.  They have been executing that strategy.

 

 

Look up the data or keep spewing the same mantra.  Yes you want to limit QB hits, dah, but sneaks are are not full speed nfl collisions, they are very slow and are very safe, much safer than normal qb play, as I wrote injury's percentage is counter-intuitive, believe it or not, but if it make you feel better to try to denigrate me as you cant "dumb this down any more for:" me, that is your problem..

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Look up the data or keep spewing the same mantra.  Yes you want to limit QB hits, dah, but sneaks are are not full speed nfl collisions, they are very slow and are very safe, much safer than normal qb play, as I wrote injury's percentage is counter-intuitive, believe it or not, but if it make you feel better to try to denigrate me as you cant "dumb this down any more for:" me, that is your problem..

 

First, you started the snark with your "Do you know how to look it up" bit.

 

And yes, I find the idea that a QB sneak is safer than the QB handing the ball off not only to be counter-intuitive, but also not to be true.

[Orlando Tim]

I actually don't mind shotgun at the 1 with a couple of caveats: 1) we spread them out and make it impossible to just stuff everyone inside 2) if they stuff everyone inside we have a play for a quick throw to whoever is gonna be open. But a shotgun play where we simply have a slow hitter to the middle is dumb. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

 the play everyone calls "shotgun draw" is dart, which we run very successfully and which sets up everyone's favorite RPOs that we gash teams with.

People do make this mistake often but we did not run dart on 3rd and 1 against Tampa. 

[Franco_92]

Just now, Einstein said:

People do make this mistake often but we did not run dart on 3rd and 1 against Tampa. 

I know that,  I need to step back and restate my stances, things are blending together and I have had something come up in the last hour that is distracting me 

 

1.) At the 1 yard line I support the QB sneak as the play we prioritize. I do not hate doing the QB run from shotgun, and think we should pass from under center more frequently and pass from shotgun less frequently. I won't get upset at shotgun or under center RB runs, provided the above is all happening at reasonable ratios. The Tampa goal line failure was bad to me not because the run play happened, but because we did not even attempt a sneak and finished off the turnover on downs with our worst play of Allen's tenure, a shotgun pass. 

 

2.) I do not hate shotgun runs away from the goal line the way other fans do, in particular the concept they are very good at, dart. I believe run stuffs are uglier from shotgun because they are unnatural looking, but I'm not convinced they're more frequent. Especially given our dart frequency and aptitude. But i don't have the data to be sure. 

 

3.) Fans get this play wrong enough that I don't trust their judgment on its frequency or pretty much anything else, unless they demonstrate top percentile knowledge on football subjects

 

4.) I implicitly trust HoofHearted's diagnosis over anyone else's on this forum given his pedigree and inclination to study All-22, and because I've never seen anyone come out of a discussion with him with the upper hand. And he doesn't have the same shotgun/under center hangups that most fans do in most (not all) scenarios 

[Dukestreetking]

Regardless of interpretation, I will echo @WotAGuy sentiment: great post (and follow-ons) OP. We need more of this.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

Again, we have run that play INCREDIBLY well. I can probably  pull 20 examples of getting 5+ yards on it in the last few weeks. And then faking it on RPOs were everyone's favorite Davis plays against Tampa, faking it to run Josh scored us a TD against Miami etc. It is foolish to hate this play lol they DOMINATE with it. Our tackles love to pull in the run game. The play is in shotgun so they have room to do it.

 

So answer the question, then - if logic dictates it's better to get a head start, why does the data show it's worse at scoring touchdowns from the 1 yard line? what's the disconnect? There are clearly details that your analysis doesn't consider. 

 

I get that you have decided to make this your personal campaign, bordering on brigading. And you're at the phase where you feel the need to hammer it into any head that slightly disagrees with your stats as if you are going to change every mind...

 

But you just have to understand that no matter what select and crafted stats you provide, a number of people will ALWAYS be philosophically opposed to running that type of play in short yardage situation.

 

When faced with Down and Short (less than 3 yards) I will NEVER be on board with plays that send the ball backwards 3-5 yards first and take a while to get started. Especially when you have a guy like Josh Allen at QB.

 

And now you're expanding your goal posts from "the 1 yard line" (title of the thread) to them being successful with it all over the field. Great. Run it on 2nd and 5 at the 45 all you want. That's not what we're talking about.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I know that,  I need to step back and restate my stances, things are blending together and I have had something come up in the last hour that is distracting me 

 

 

Yeah bud, take a breath. Happy Friday. Go Bills.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, Franco_92 said:

I don't think the data is saying "No shotgun at the 1". It is saying "Do not pass out of the shotgun as frequently as you do." 

 

Except.. if they never pass out of shotgun then the opponent will know too. So given the success rate of the run being roughly the same under center.. stay under center so you can run or pass.

[Matt_In_NH]

the only issue I have is when it is from the half yard line

[reddogblitz]

My only grips with it was we should have kicked a FG and taken the points. (I said so at the time so not second guessing).  A FG in our back pocket sure would have come in handy in the 2nd half.

[Brand J]

What I want to see, which the Bills haven’t done yet, is line up in shotgun on the 1, have Allen do some of his usual checks, then walk up to the line pointing defenders out before hurriedly taking the snap for a QB sneak. Try to catch the defense off guard that way.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

I know that,  I need to step back and restate my stances, things are blending together and I have had something come up in the last hour that is distracting me 

 

1.) At the 1 yard line I support the QB sneak as the play we prioritize. I do not hate doing the QB run from shotgun, and think we should pass from under center more frequently and pass from shotgun less frequently. I won't get upset at shotgun or under center RB runs, provided the above is all happening at reasonable ratios. The Tampa goal line failure was bad to me not because the run play happened, but because we did not even attempt a sneak and finished off the turnover on downs with our worst play of Allen's tenure, a shotgun pass. 

 

2.) I do not hate shotgun runs away from the goal line the way other fans do, in particular the concept they are very good at, dart. I believe run stuffs are uglier from shotgun because they are unnatural looking, but I'm not convinced they're more frequent. Especially given our dart frequency and aptitude. But i don't have the data to be sure. 

 

3.) Fans get this play wrong enough that I don't trust their judgment on its frequency or pretty much anything else, unless they demonstrate top percentile knowledge on football subjects

 

4.) I implicitly trust HoofHearted's diagnosis over anyone else's on this forum given his pedigree and inclination to study All-22, and because I've never seen anyone come out of a discussion with him with the upper hand. And he doesn't have the same shotgun/under center hangups that most fans do in most (not all) scenarios 

I’m only going off what you are saying Hoof said, so hard to dissect it truly 3rd hand like this.  But if he is calling this play a dart it is incorrect and honestly, it’s pretty clear IMHO that it was a draw up the middle with no pulling tackles like you would see on a dart.  

[PromoTheRobot]

It doesn't matter whether you are in shotgun or under center if your line won't block.

[stevestojan]

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't know why 100% of the time the Bills don't look at the ball at the 1 yard line as 4-down territory with 3rd and 4th down both QB sneaks to Allen. 

 

Worst case the opponent takes over at their 1/2-yard line. 

 

*****in’ A. THIS. 100% THIS. 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, stevestojan said:

*****in’ A. THIS. 100% THIS. 

 

That's why we got Lenny. Frickin' battering ram.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

If Dorsey calls a run from shotgun in that situation again he should be fired on the spot.  I am serious, it is that egregious.  To do it in back to back weeks is a fireable offense, which he did.  Both instances we lost yards, one we converted the TD on 4th down, and the other we did not convert on 4th down and we almost lost that game on a final hail mary play where not getting points there would have been the difference in the game.  

 

 

I agree with your entire post except for this part. I highly doubt it had an effect on the final score. 
 

The Bills ended up getting the ball back around the 30 yard line after the Bucs were held inside their own goal line and had to punt and the Bills would get a TD on their next possession.